COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

December 2, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,379 contracts) with Silver (6,828 contracts), Platinum (2,898 contracts), Steel (682 contracts) and Palladium (116 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a dip of just -329 contracts.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-28-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold505,65839200,08465-218,5924018,50829
Silver139,1443134,28067-47,8553613,57542
Copper173,23321-3,872284,91276-1,04012
Palladium19,90465-10,171910,34893-17731
Platinum70,4375210,03439-14,272644,23825

 


Strength Scores led by Steel, Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (99 percent), Silver (67 percent) and Gold (65 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (65.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.6 percent)
Silver (67.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.4 percent)
Copper (27.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.8 percent)
Platinum (38.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.9 percent)
Steel (98.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.9 percent)

 

Gold & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (38 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. All the markets in the metals category have positive trends for the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (38.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (44.1 percent)
Silver (20.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (21.6 percent)
Copper (19.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.7 percent)
Platinum (22.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.6 percent)
Palladium (8.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.2 percent)
Steel (21.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 200,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 28,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.322.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.866.15.4
– Net Position:200,084-218,59218,508
– Gross Longs:289,845115,59645,650
– Gross Shorts:89,761334,18827,142
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.3 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.139.529.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.4-35.09.0

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 34,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.229.019.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.663.39.4
– Net Position:34,280-47,85513,575
– Gross Longs:62,88040,28726,647
– Gross Shorts:28,60088,14213,072
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.235.941.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.7-19.79.5

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.238.97.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.536.08.3
– Net Position:-3,8724,912-1,040
– Gross Longs:62,74967,34813,309
– Gross Shorts:66,62162,43614,349
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.575.711.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-15.2-22.8

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.625.010.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.345.34.5
– Net Position:10,034-14,2724,238
– Gross Longs:38,43817,6037,403
– Gross Shorts:28,40431,8753,165
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.764.024.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.4-18.2-11.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.159.28.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.27.29.0
– Net Position:-10,17110,348-177
– Gross Longs:4,80411,7901,610
– Gross Shorts:14,9751,4421,787
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 18.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.792.931.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-7.1-12.6

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.070.32.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.170.40.9
– Net Position:-233-30263
– Gross Longs:4,96714,556453
– Gross Shorts:5,20014,586190
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.61.161.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.8-23.546.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.