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Archive for Financial News – Page 160

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Wheat

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (27,046 contracts) with Corn (9,224 contracts), Cotton (7,547 contracts), Coffee (2,308 contracts), Live Cattle (1,300 contracts) and Cocoa (392 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-58,077 contracts), Soybean Meal (-31,907 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,060 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,765 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,759 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,650,245	23	151,599	3	-175,326	98	23,727	28
Gold	469,939	22	188,233	60	-212,808	42	24,575	46
Silver	134,281	25	28,458	59	-47,496	36	19,038	72
Copper	176,034	23	-4,004	29	5,131	76	-1,127	11
Palladium	21,309	72	-10,638	6	10,920	97	-282	25
Platinum	74,004	62	7,709	33	-11,713	69	4,004	22
Natural Gas	1,412,602	90	-111,617	32	88,022	71	23,595	36
Brent	126,671	7	-17,577	78	15,753	24	1,824	37
Heating Oil	302,940	37	27,120	72	-41,287	43	14,167	40
Soybeans	718,648	38	17,539	1	-216	97	-17,323	62
Corn	1,251,100	8	-101,215	8	131,530	94	-30,315	81
Coffee	210,390	25	36,568	65	-38,176	38	1,608	33
Sugar	781,527	21	107,392	29	-129,631	70	22,239	31
Wheat	347,460	35	-40,021	40	48,543	63	-8,522	29

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (79 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (1 percent), Lean Hogs (6 percent), Corn (8 percent), Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Cotton (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (7.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (29.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.5 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (62.6 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (48.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.4 percent)
Live Cattle (20.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.4 percent)
Cotton (19.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (78.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (78.2 percent)
Wheat (39.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (20.9 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Sugar (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Soybean Oil (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.8 percent)
Sugar (-38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.4 percent)
Coffee (14.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.5 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.3 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -101,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	46.8	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	36.3	13.0
– Net Position:	-101,215	131,530	-30,315
– Gross Longs:	266,655	585,265	132,780
– Gross Shorts:	367,870	453,735	163,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	93.6	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	2.6	-6.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	52.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	68.8	6.6
– Net Position:	107,392	-129,631	22,239
– Gross Longs:	200,473	408,051	74,109
– Gross Shorts:	93,081	537,682	51,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	69.7	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.4	39.5	-29.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 36,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	37.5	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	55.6	4.7
– Net Position:	36,568	-38,176	1,608
– Gross Longs:	67,149	78,878	11,508
– Gross Shorts:	30,581	117,054	9,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	37.9	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-16.2	25.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	53.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	53.6	9.7
– Net Position:	17,539	-216	-17,323
– Gross Longs:	107,860	384,698	52,732
– Gross Shorts:	90,321	384,914	70,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	96.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	0.6	-6.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	49.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.5	5.9
– Net Position:	-5,804	699	5,105
– Gross Longs:	86,954	232,182	32,465
– Gross Shorts:	92,758	231,483	27,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	83.0	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	16.1	-0.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	60.3	6.2
– Net Position:	84,744	-107,389	22,645
– Gross Longs:	136,307	183,339	52,503
– Gross Shorts:	51,563	290,728	29,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	49.8	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	17.7	15.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	38.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	51.8	13.2
– Net Position:	38,758	-34,044	-4,714
– Gross Longs:	71,116	103,176	30,336
– Gross Shorts:	32,358	137,220	35,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	81.1	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	12.0	8.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	40.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	23.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-28,455	32,876	-4,421
– Gross Longs:	54,212	77,622	16,150
– Gross Shorts:	82,667	44,746	20,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	99.7	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	11.5	-11.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	44.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	51.9	5.6
– Net Position:	14,104	-14,147	43
– Gross Longs:	66,280	88,023	11,017
– Gross Shorts:	52,176	102,170	10,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	80.8	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	7.1	-12.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	27.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	51.2	4.4
– Net Position:	67,303	-70,652	3,349
– Gross Longs:	118,747	79,020	16,150
– Gross Shorts:	51,444	149,672	12,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	21.1	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	1.5	7.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	38.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	25.0	10.5
– Net Position:	-40,021	48,543	-8,522
– Gross Longs:	108,383	135,276	28,033
– Gross Shorts:	148,404	86,733	36,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	62.8	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-14.9	-41.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

12 Dec

Bank of Japan’s statements mislead investors. Oil is expected to see a rise in fuel demand ahead of the holidays

By JustMarkets

As of Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.20% yesterday. Stocks found support on Monday on expectations that US consumer prices will continue to decline. Today, the CPI report for November will be released. US CPI is expected to decline to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% y/y in October, while CPI excluding food and energy is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y.

This week, markets will also keep a close eye on the results of the central bank meetings of the Fed, ECB, SNB, and Bank of England to see if policymakers support the suspension of the interest rate hike campaign and when they might start to shift to a softer policy.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 2024 will be a year of strong fundamental growth for stocks of companies that make chips for generative artificial intelligence.

According to the latest polls, Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this Friday for the sixth consecutive time at 11.25%, with discussions of a rate cut not starting until next year. Minutes from the bank’s last monetary policy meeting showed the idea of discussing a key interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2024.

Equity markets in Europe traded on Monday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.21%, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.33% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.25%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.13%. Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month forecast for the STOXX 600 index to 500, implying a nearly 6% gain through the end of 2024 on expectations of lower interest rates. The broker previously expected the index to end 2024 at 480 points. Meanwhile, GS downgraded its recommendation on European banks to “neutral” as it expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates next year.

Swap prices show that the chances of an ECB rate cut in Q1 2024 have decreased. In swaps tied to ECB meeting dates, the probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at its March 7 meeting is 58%, down from 67% recorded last Friday.

Crude oil prices recovered from early losses on Monday and posted a slight gain after the American Automobile Association (AAA) predicted a record number of air travelers during the Christmas week, which will have a positive impact on fuel demand. AAA predicted that a record 7.5 million people will use air transportation services between December 23 and January 2.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.5%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.13% on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.81% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.06%.

Even late last week, the market was dominated by rumors that the Bank of Japan was planning an exit from negative interest rates. But yesterday, BoJ officials said that they see no need to rush to abandon the negative interest rate policy as there is insufficient evidence of wage growth to support sustainable inflation. Such an approach could undermine investor confidence in the yen and the JP225, so the Bank of Japan should be more consistent.

Japan’s BSI Large Manufacturing Business Conditions Index rose from 5.4 to 5.7 in Q3, the highest reading in 2 years.

Australia’s updated mid-year budget will include about A$10 billion ($6.56 billion) in savings as the government seeks to cut spending in an attempt to contain high inflation. Australian households are under financial pressure from high inflation and rising interest rates, but the vast majority of borrowers can service their loans. That means the RBA has room to keep rates high for longer.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,622.44 +18.07 (+0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,404.93 +157.06 (+0.43%)

DAX (DE40) 16,794.43 +35.21 (+0.21%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,544.89 −9.58 (−0.13%)

USD Index 103.97 -0.01 (-0.01%)

News feed for 2023.12.12:

– Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 00:20 (GMT+2);
– Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Dec

Gold bears eye weekly support ahead of US CPI

By ForexTime

Gold bearish on daily timeframe

4 potential targets identified on H4 chart.

Bearish scenario invalidated above 2039.91

Watch out for US CPI report this afternoon

After the spectacular bearish move on Monday 4th December, gold is back in bearish territory.

This is reflected in the daily timeframe where prices are busy with an impulse in the current downtrend. Bears seem to be aiming for the next weekly support level around 1931.35 with the negative momentum increasing after the solid daily close below the psychological $2000 level. Nevertheless, looking at the 4-hour timeframe might give more insight into what to expect from the precious metal over the next few sessions.

Before we take a deeper dive into the technicals, it is worth keeping in mind that fundamental forces could impact the precious metals’ outlook this week.

The incoming US CPI report released this afternoon could impact expectations around what actions the Fed will take in 2024, ultimately influencing gold.

A softer-than-expected inflation figure may support gold, while a higher-than-expected figure has the potential to drag the precious metal lower.

Shifting our focus back to technicals…

The 4-hour chart validates the daily scenario with a downtrend in progress. The bearish impetus is further confirmed by the price being below the 50 Exponential Moving Average. Both the Momentum Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are also beneath their respective base lines.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level below the last lower bottom at 1975.75 and dragging it above the 50 Exponential Moving Average at 2039.91, four possible targets can be determined:

The first potential target is at 1950.09 (Target 1).

The second price target is likely at 1937.25 (Target 2).

The third price target is possible at 1911.59 (Target 3) if the price has enough momentum to break through the weekly support level.

The fourth and last price target is feasible at 1879.51 (Target 4) if the bears can continue their rule for long enough.

If the price at 2039.91 is broken, this scenario is no longer valid.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Dec

The ECB and Fed will cut rates sooner than the BoE. Deflationary processes are intensifying in China

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.82% (+0.44% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.41% (+0.88% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed up by 0.45% (+1.66% for the week) on Friday. Stocks initially declined on Friday, and bond yields jumped after the monthly labor market report showed a larger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for November and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to a 4-month low, dampening speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of next year. However, stocks reversed and headed higher as inflation expectations eased, and a larger-than-expected increase in the University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment index for December improved prospects for a soft landing.

US nonfarm payroll employment for November rose by 199,000, exceeding expectations of 185,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 to a 4-month low of 3.7% in November, indicating a stronger labor market. Average hourly earnings in the US for November were up by 4.0% y/y, unchanged from October and in line with expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December rose by 8.1 to a 4-month high of 69.4, exceeding expectations of 62.0. Inflation expectations for 5-10-year inflation also declined in December to 2.8% from 3.2% in November, better than expectations of 3.1%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78% (+2.25% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.32% (+2.66% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.76% (+0.86% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.54% (+0.33% for the week).

Ahead of the December European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, there is growing evidence that the Governing Council is divided on what to present to the markets. Typically hawkish Isabel Schnabel made strong dovish hints by ruling out a rate hike this week, and markets are now pricing in a 135 bps rate cut over the next 12 months. A reassessment of inflation expectations has played a leading role in lowering rates and raising expectations for the first rate cut late in the first quarter of next year.

No rate changes are expected at Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, but the Bank of England will counter the rising tide of rate cut expectations. Bank Governor Bailey recently indicated his stance on more rate hikes in an attempt to curb speculation of an imminent rate cut. Markets are predicting three rate cuts in 2024 from the BoE, but the first rate cut won’t come until June 2024 at the earliest, while the ECB and the US Fed could cut rates as early as March-April 2024.

Oil rose on Friday after better-than-expected US economic reports on November payrolls and December consumer sentiment eased recession fears and bolstered prospects for a soft landing, a positive for energy demand and oil prices. In addition, the US plans to replenish the strategic oil reserve by supporting oil. The US Department of Energy released a request to purchase up to 3 million barrels of oil with delivery in March to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This was in addition to a previous tender to buy the same volume in February. The Energy Ministry said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to replenish the reserve until at least May next year.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 3.03% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 3.06% for the five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.46% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.72% for the week.

Japan’s Q3 GDP data was unexpectedly revised downward to 2.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of 2.0% and the sharpest rate of contraction since the pandemic. The Q3 GDP deflator was revised upward to a record 5.3% y/y from 5.1% y/y.

China’s consumer price index fell by 0.5% in November from the previous month. The index was weaker than expectations of a 0.1% drop and also worsened from October’s 0.1% decline. On an annualized basis, CPI inflation fell by 0.5%, the lowest reading in 3 years. The data contradicts a recent statement from the head of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), who said inflation would go up. The decline in inflation came despite continued liquidity injections from the government and signaled that Beijing needs to do more to support economic activity.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,604.37 +18.78 (+0.41%)

Dow Jones (US30) 36,247.87 +130.49 (+0.36%)

DAX (DE40) 16,759.22 +130.23 (+0.78%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,554.47 +40.75 (+0.54%)

USD Index 103.98 +0.44 (+0.43%)

News feed for 2023.12.11:

– Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Dec

Trade Of The Week: SPX500_m gearing up for event heavy week

By ForexTime

SPX500_m hits new 2023 high last Friday

Stock index set to be injected with fresh volatility

Keep eye on US CPI and Fed decision

SPX500_m bullish on D1 chart but RSI signals overbought

Key levels of interest at 4640, 4600 and 4545

After hitting a new 2023 high last Friday, the SPX500_m could be injected with fresh volatility this week due to a series of high-risk events.

US equity bulls remain in the driver’s seat with the SPX500_m bagging its sixth week of gains after the strong US jobs data boosted hopes around the US economy avoiding a recession. The stock Index has also drawn strength from growing bets over the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year amid slowing inflation.

Taking a brief peek at the technicals, prices are trending higher on the daily charts. Despite the recent breakout above 4600, it may be worth keeping an eye on the range with support found at 4545.

The next few days could be wild for the SPX500_m and here are 3 reasons why:

1. US data dump

It’s a big week for the US economy thanks to top-tier economic reports including the highly anticipated US CPI report on Tuesday.

This crucial inflation report along with the latest retail sales and industrial production among others could influence bets around what the Fed will do beyond 2023. As highlighted in our week ahead report, headline inflation is expected to have cooled further due to falling energy prices, while the annual core inflation to remain unchanged.

Given how the S&P 500 Index has a handful of tech stocks that remain sensitive to interest rate expectations, the incoming US inflation figures have the ability to rock the index.

The SPX500_m could pull away from the 2023 high if the inflation report exceeds market forecasts.
Should the inflation numbers print below expectations, this could push the index higher as Fed rate cut bets jump.

2. Fed rate decision

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, so the focus falls on the updated economic projections and dot plots for fresh clarity on its next move.

The SPX500_m could push higher if the doves dominate the scene with the Fed signalling cuts in 2024.
If the Fed pushes back hopes for rate cuts and reiterates the higher for longer mantra, this may pull the SPX500_m lower.

Note: Looking beyond US data and the Fed decision, it may be worth keeping an eye on the “Triple witching”.

US markets may see a sudden jump in volumes on Friday as Futures and Options contracts on Stocks and Indices expire in what is called “Triple witching”. This happens once a quarter and has the potential to cause some market volatility.

3. Technical forces

Regarding the technical picture, prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains around 70 suggesting that prices are heavily overbought. A technical throwback could be on the table before the index pushes higher.

Should prices stay above the 4600 level, this may open a path towards the 4640 level – the highest level touched in March 2022.
Sustained below 4600 may trigger a selloff back towards 4525
Should 4525 prove to be unreliable support, a decline back towards 4500 and 4470 could be on the cards.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

11 Dec

Euro Shows Temporary Stability

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Euro’s recent stabilization against the US dollar, now hovering around 1.0766, may be short-lived. Market eyes are turning towards the upcoming two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, starting Tuesday and concluding late Wednesday. Key attention will be on the interest rate decision, widely anticipated to hold steady at 5.50% annually.

Investor focus is keenly set on the Fed’s potential moves for February and March, with speculation rife about a possible rate reduction by the end of Q1. Any hints or signals in this regard will be crucial for market dynamics.

Monday’s calendar is light, with no major statistics due from either the Eurozone or the US. The real action is expected to start Tuesday.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the EUR/USD H4 chart, a decline impulse to 1.0804 has been observed. Currently, the market has formed a consolidation range around it. A downward wave to 1.0704 could develop today. This practically implies a breakout from the range downwards, opening the potential for further trend development towards 1.0594. This is the first target. Once the quotes reach it, a correction to 1.0800 might start, followed by a decline to 1.0400. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, where its signal line is below zero, pointing strictly downwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the quotes have rebounded from 1.0805. A structure of a declining wave to 1.0705 is forming. After reaching this level, a correction link to 1.0760 cannot be ruled out (a test from below). Next, a decline to 1.0655 could follow. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and a potential drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,460 contracts) with Silver (2,023 contracts), Copper (1,878 contracts) and Steel (66 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,901 contracts) with Palladium (-1,081 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	487,469	30	203,544	67	-226,945	36	23,401	43
Silver	139,753	32	36,303	70	-52,014	31	15,711	54
Copper	176,373	24	-1,994	30	2,139	73	-145	18
Palladium	21,271	72	-11,252	2	11,277	99	-25	40
Platinum	75,508	67	5,133	27	-9,183	74	4,050	22

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (99 percent) and Silver (70 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Platinum (27 percent) and Copper (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (66.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (70.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.2 percent)
Copper (30.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (28.6 percent)
Platinum (27.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.7 percent)
Palladium (1.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (98.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (98.6 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (24 percent) and Steel (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-0.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (0 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (23.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.4 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (20.7 percent)
Copper (16.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (13.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.4 percent)
Palladium (-0.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (20.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (21.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 203,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.3	21.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	67.7	4.9
– Net Position:	203,544	-226,945	23,401
– Gross Longs:	288,840	103,193	47,483
– Gross Shorts:	85,296	330,138	24,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.7	36.3	42.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-23.6	19.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.3	29.3	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	66.5	7.6
– Net Position:	36,303	-52,014	15,711
– Gross Longs:	63,241	40,974	26,387
– Gross Shorts:	26,938	92,988	10,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	30.9	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-21.1	30.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	39.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	38.1	7.7
– Net Position:	-1,994	2,139	-145
– Gross Longs:	62,780	69,402	13,390
– Gross Shorts:	64,774	67,263	13,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	73.4	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-15.9	3.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.5	29.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	41.9	4.9
– Net Position:	5,133	-9,183	4,050
– Gross Longs:	37,395	22,448	7,743
– Gross Shorts:	32,262	31,631	3,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	74.5	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-9.0	-16.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	60.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.0	7.2	8.9
– Net Position:	-11,252	11,277	-25
– Gross Longs:	4,920	12,814	1,859
– Gross Shorts:	16,172	1,537	1,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	8.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	98.8	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.2	-10.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 66 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	68.2	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	69.5	0.7
– Net Position:	-167	-241	408
– Gross Longs:	4,707	12,586	543
– Gross Shorts:	4,874	12,827	135
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.2	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-22.9	55.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

10 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators bets led Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (50,336 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (48,898 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-30,927 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-187,185 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,903 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-15,457 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,960 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,972,383	100	511,780	99	-508,691	1	-3,089	86
FedFunds	1,482,072	44	-153,154	36	165,097	65	-11,943	68
2-Year	4,111,534	96	-1,476,016	0	1,334,625	100	141,391	98
Long T-Bond	1,299,431	59	-130,079	38	82,852	42	47,227	83
10-Year	4,536,418	77	-636,456	21	584,114	76	52,342	85
5-Year	5,775,249	87	-1,429,427	3	1,292,579	97	136,848	97

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (56 percent) were leading the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (99.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-27 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (28.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (13.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (13.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 511,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 527,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	53.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	58.3	0.8
– Net Position:	511,780	-508,691	-3,089
– Gross Longs:	2,213,085	5,890,360	79,464
– Gross Shorts:	1,701,305	6,399,051	82,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	1.0	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-13.3	-1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -153,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	74.5	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	63.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-153,154	165,097	-11,943
– Gross Longs:	138,769	1,104,260	30,097
– Gross Shorts:	291,923	939,163	42,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	64.8	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-13.2	18.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,476,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -187,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,288,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	82.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	49.9	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,476,016	1,334,625	141,391
– Gross Longs:	392,729	3,387,065	269,898
– Gross Shorts:	1,868,745	2,052,440	128,507
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.7	5.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,429,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,398,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	61.8	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,429,427	1,292,579	136,848
– Gross Longs:	413,024	4,864,463	438,764
– Gross Shorts:	1,842,451	3,571,884	301,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	96.9	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	25.4	16.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -636,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 48,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -685,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	65.4	8.0
– Net Position:	-636,456	584,114	52,342
– Gross Longs:	482,555	3,552,088	415,343
– Gross Shorts:	1,119,011	2,967,974	363,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	76.2	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	15.0	-9.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -267,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -257,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	78.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	61.8	13.4
– Net Position:	-267,855	338,116	-70,261
– Gross Longs:	209,338	1,569,511	196,892
– Gross Shorts:	477,193	1,231,395	267,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	6.9	-9.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -27,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	76.1	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	69.7	11.1
– Net Position:	-130,079	82,852	47,227
– Gross Longs:	111,684	989,196	192,050
– Gross Shorts:	241,763	906,344	144,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	41.9	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.5	2.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -316,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -329,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	82.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	63.8	9.6
– Net Position:	-316,662	293,770	22,892
– Gross Longs:	99,089	1,304,089	174,300
– Gross Shorts:	415,751	1,010,319	151,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	40.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-22.7	-1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (46,709 contracts) with Wheat (30,137 contracts), Coffee (3,702 contracts), Lean Hogs (586 contracts) and Cotton (373 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-39,607 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,399 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,977 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,783 contracts), Cocoa (-4,735 contracts) and Live Cattle (-2,399 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,650,437	23	168,990	8	-194,626	93	25,636	32
Gold	487,469	30	203,544	67	-226,945	36	23,401	43
Silver	139,753	32	36,303	70	-52,014	31	15,711	54
Copper	176,373	24	-1,994	30	2,139	73	-145	18
Palladium	21,271	72	-11,252	2	11,277	99	-25	40
Platinum	75,508	67	5,133	27	-9,183	74	4,050	22
Natural Gas	1,339,392	76	-111,079	32	89,350	71	21,729	32
Brent	124,294	5	-23,462	67	21,587	36	1,875	38
Heating Oil	307,563	39	32,795	82	-51,939	27	19,144	60
Soybeans	715,603	37	20,298	2	-2,961	96	-17,337	62
Corn	1,256,256	9	-110,439	7	137,754	95	-27,315	85
Coffee	208,686	24	34,260	63	-35,882	40	1,622	33
Sugar	853,428	38	165,469	50	-188,821	52	23,352	33
Wheat	405,309	69	-67,067	21	72,571	81	-5,504	43

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (78 percent) and Soybean Meal (66 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent) and Sugar (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (2 percent), Corn (7 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Cotton (14 percent), Soybean Oil (19 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (50.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (64.8 percent)
Coffee (62.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (58.8 percent)
Soybeans (1.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (66.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (74.2 percent)
Live Cattle (19.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (21.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.9 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.4 percent)
Cocoa (78.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (83.0 percent)
Wheat (20.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (16 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-21 percent), Soybean Oil (-17 percent) and Cotton (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.4 percent)
Sugar (-21.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (16.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (31.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (30.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-20.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-3.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-20.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-4.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -157,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	46.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	35.7	13.1
– Net Position:	-110,439	137,754	-27,315
– Gross Longs:	272,899	586,174	137,666
– Gross Shorts:	383,338	448,420	164,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.5	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	8.0	11.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 165,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	48.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	70.5	6.2
– Net Position:	165,469	-188,821	23,352
– Gross Longs:	249,241	413,191	76,231
– Gross Shorts:	83,772	602,012	52,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.6	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.4	25.4	-31.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.0	4.9
– Net Position:	34,260	-35,882	1,622
– Gross Longs:	67,450	76,883	11,747
– Gross Shorts:	33,190	112,765	10,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	40.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-17.7	21.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	55.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	56.3	9.9
– Net Position:	20,298	-2,961	-17,337
– Gross Longs:	116,761	399,901	53,751
– Gross Shorts:	96,463	402,862	71,088
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	95.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.9	-13.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	48.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	50.0	5.5
– Net Position:	1,256	-5,792	4,536
– Gross Longs:	92,474	234,618	31,193
– Gross Shorts:	91,218	240,410	26,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	79.6	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	14.3	8.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,977 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,628 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	35.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	62.3	5.7
– Net Position:	116,651	-138,507	21,856
– Gross Longs:	159,725	184,597	51,421
– Gross Shorts:	43,074	323,104	29,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.4	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.8	7.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 37,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	40.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	52.7	13.6
– Net Position:	37,458	-32,960	-4,498
– Gross Longs:	70,378	106,961	31,558
– Gross Shorts:	32,920	139,921	36,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	82.4	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	19.7	17.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	40.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	24.9	11.3
– Net Position:	-24,690	29,445	-4,755
– Gross Longs:	54,967	77,503	17,073
– Gross Shorts:	79,657	48,058	21,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	96.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	7.8	-21.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	45.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	48.1	6.2
– Net Position:	6,557	-5,291	-1,266
– Gross Longs:	62,704	89,387	11,020
– Gross Shorts:	56,147	94,678	12,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	86.8	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.2	-29.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	26.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	50.9	4.5
– Net Position:	66,911	-69,993	3,082
– Gross Longs:	122,246	73,390	15,894
– Gross Shorts:	55,335	143,383	12,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	21.8	27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	10.0	1.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -67,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 30,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	40.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	22.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-67,067	72,571	-5,504
– Gross Longs:	119,965	162,290	29,963
– Gross Shorts:	187,032	89,719	35,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.6	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	11.6	-36.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by DowJones & S&P500 Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (24,916 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (17,766 contracts) the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,174 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (2,394 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (1,124 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (670 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (64 contracts),also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in the speculator bets this week was the VIX (-9,241 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,314,400	31	-47,261	58	-95	40	47,356	56
Nikkei 225	19,914	60	-1,690	55	1,036	42	654	39
Nasdaq-Mini	277,746	61	8,402	52	-13,580	27	5,178	85
DowJones-Mini	94,870	55	308	81	2,833	33	-3,141	29
VIX	406,711	75	-56,777	71	57,871	26	-1,094	91
Nikkei 225 Yen	65,677	65	17,459	88	2,061	17	-19,520	44

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (81 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (71 percent) and S&P500-Mini (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (71.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (77.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (80.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (50.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (42.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (49.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)

DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-23.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (-16.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-8.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-6.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-33.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	49.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	35.7	7.1
– Net Position:	-56,777	57,871	-1,094
– Gross Longs:	92,021	202,889	27,743
– Gross Shorts:	148,798	145,018	28,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.3	25.5	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	20.7	17.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -47,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	73.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	73.7	9.3
– Net Position:	-47,261	-95	47,356
– Gross Longs:	264,209	1,706,068	261,634
– Gross Shorts:	311,470	1,706,163	214,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	4.8	9.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 24,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	56.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	53.4	17.3
– Net Position:	308	2,833	-3,141
– Gross Longs:	26,253	53,465	13,228
– Gross Shorts:	25,945	50,632	16,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	32.9	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	78.4	-62.1	2.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	56.0	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	60.8	13.0
– Net Position:	8,402	-13,580	5,178
– Gross Longs:	75,200	155,418	41,346
– Gross Shorts:	66,798	168,998	36,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	27.4	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-11.8	8.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -55,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 64 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	81.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	72.6	4.1
– Net Position:	-55,429	50,900	4,529
– Gross Longs:	69,069	455,710	27,535
– Gross Shorts:	124,498	404,810	23,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	57.7	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	3.7	15.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	68.2	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	63.0	16.6
– Net Position:	-1,690	1,036	654
– Gross Longs:	2,029	13,587	3,953
– Gross Shorts:	3,719	12,551	3,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	42.2	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	2.1	-10.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	91.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	79.9	1.7
– Net Position:	-49,858	44,941	4,917
– Gross Longs:	22,286	369,015	11,661
– Gross Shorts:	72,144	324,074	6,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	84.0	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	15.7	15.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 160

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

After the spectacular bearish move on Monday 4th December, gold is back in bearish territory.

The incoming US CPI report released this afternoon could impact expectations around what actions the Fed will take in 2024, ultimately influencing gold.

Shifting our focus back to technicals…

The first potential target is at 1950.09 (Target 1).

The second price target is likely at 1937.25 (Target 2).

The third price target is possible at 1911.59 (Target 3) if the price has enough momentum to break through the weekly support level.

The fourth and last price target is feasible at 1879.51 (Target 4) if the bears can continue their rule for long enough.

After hitting a new 2023 high last Friday, the SPX500_m could be injected with fresh volatility this week due to a series of high-risk events.

1. US data dump

2. Fed rate decision

Note: Looking beyond US data and the Fed decision, it may be worth keeping an eye on the “Triple witching”.

3. Technical forces

EUR/USD technical analysis

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Soybean Meal

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures: