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COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (21,325 contracts) with Silver (3,689 contracts), Platinum (3,208 contracts) and Palladium (917 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-21,683 contracts) with Steel (-255 contracts) also recording slightly lower bets for the week.

Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (43.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.8 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.2 percent)
Platinum (42.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.8 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.9 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets were in negative 6-week trends. Steel (-9 percent) had the least negative trend score over the past six weeks for metals while Gold (-24 percent) came in as the market with the largest negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.4 percent)
Silver (-12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.3 percent)
Copper (-12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.3 percent)
Platinum (-12.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-15.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 147,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	27.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.9	5.3
– Net Position:	147,791	-170,518	22,727
– Gross Longs:	219,222	117,525	45,364
– Gross Shorts:	71,431	288,043	22,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	55.7	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	23.1	-9.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	30.3	22.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	58.0	10.1
– Net Position:	21,426	-37,778	16,352
– Gross Longs:	52,778	41,387	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	31,352	79,165	13,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.1	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.9	-15.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	39.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	36.4	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,598	7,271	1,327
– Gross Longs:	71,100	90,929	17,116
– Gross Shorts:	79,698	83,658	15,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.4	-4.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	23.9	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	46.8	4.6
– Net Position:	11,549	-17,074	5,525
– Gross Longs:	43,818	17,727	8,942
– Gross Shorts:	32,269	34,801	3,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	58.2	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	9.2	13.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	9.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-10,700	10,302	398
– Gross Longs:	4,927	12,574	2,065
– Gross Shorts:	15,627	2,272	1,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	9.2	55.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	83.1	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	75.1	1.0
– Net Position:	-2,187	1,982	205
– Gross Longs:	2,612	20,479	440
– Gross Shorts:	4,799	18,497	235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.2	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

03 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,068 contracts) with Live Cattle (10,882 contracts), Wheat (6,327 contracts), Sugar (6,129 contracts), Cotton (4,112 contracts) and Coffee (3,221 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-34,583 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,316 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,677 contracts), Cocoa (-4,062 contracts) and with Corn (-5,632 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cocoa

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.7 percent)
Sugar (17.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (15.0 percent)
Coffee (85.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (81.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.3 percent)
Live Cattle (19.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.1 percent)
Cotton (40.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (37.4 percent)
Cocoa (83.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (87.2 percent)
Wheat (42.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.8 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (27 percent) and Coffee (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (10 percent), Live Cattle (3 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-36 percent), Soybean Oil (-13 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.4 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (11.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.7 percent)
Soybeans (-36.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-31.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-50.0 percent)
Live Cattle (3.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.8 percent)
Cotton (26.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.1 percent)
Cocoa (2.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.6 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -224,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -219,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	46.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	31.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-224,832	241,727	-16,895
– Gross Longs:	266,671	745,348	154,099
– Gross Shorts:	491,503	503,621	170,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	5.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	56.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	67.5	6.1
– Net Position:	73,684	-96,000	22,316
– Gross Longs:	178,443	478,435	74,201
– Gross Shorts:	104,759	574,435	51,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.0	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	5.8	0.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 56,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	35.1	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	61.0	3.4
– Net Position:	56,119	-58,218	2,099
– Gross Longs:	81,054	79,239	9,784
– Gross Shorts:	24,935	137,457	7,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	18.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.7	-1.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -140,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	60.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	39.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-140,577	155,822	-15,245
– Gross Longs:	77,880	453,583	49,226
– Gross Shorts:	218,457	297,761	64,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.4	35.8	-5.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	50.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	44.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-38,035	34,664	3,371
– Gross Longs:	99,948	289,600	32,569
– Gross Shorts:	137,983	254,936	29,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.8	-14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	51.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	47.5	6.8
– Net Position:	-33,932	17,882	16,050
– Gross Longs:	72,409	247,263	48,670
– Gross Shorts:	106,341	229,381	32,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.2	46.3	-16.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	38.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	51.0	12.4
– Net Position:	37,214	-33,950	-3,264
– Gross Longs:	84,392	107,858	31,065
– Gross Shorts:	47,178	141,808	34,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.2	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-3.8	0.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	38.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	32.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-9,794	14,796	-5,002
– Gross Longs:	73,083	84,878	18,722
– Gross Shorts:	82,877	70,082	23,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	82.7	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-11.0	3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	45.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	64.1	4.7
– Net Position:	42,278	-46,586	4,308
– Gross Longs:	72,535	114,657	16,124
– Gross Shorts:	30,257	161,243	11,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.9	24.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	26.0	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	49.2	4.1
– Net Position:	71,694	-76,000	4,306
– Gross Longs:	126,534	84,962	17,615
– Gross Shorts:	54,840	160,962	13,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	15.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.1	23.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	25.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-36,455	43,840	-7,385
– Gross Longs:	118,028	149,787	30,571
– Gross Shorts:	154,483	105,947	37,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	59.3	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.4	-4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (38,211 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (641 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-80,701 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-74,337 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-64,042 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-40,595 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-38,116 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-8,491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (17.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (35.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (96.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-24 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-16 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-24.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (25.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-15.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (6.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (2.6 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 705,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -64,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 769,187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	50.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	57.5	0.3
– Net Position:	705,145	-701,186	-3,959
– Gross Longs:	2,012,056	5,282,698	28,810
– Gross Shorts:	1,306,911	5,983,884	32,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	3.3	85.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	1.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -156,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -80,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	70.1	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	61.7	2.0
– Net Position:	-156,080	169,562	-13,482
– Gross Longs:	213,115	1,419,260	27,738
– Gross Shorts:	369,195	1,249,698	41,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	65.8	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.9	0.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,307,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -38,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,268,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	83.1	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	53.4	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,307,001	1,167,338	139,663
– Gross Longs:	361,700	3,262,504	260,468
– Gross Shorts:	1,668,701	2,095,166	120,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	87.9	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.7	2.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,192,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 38,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,231,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	66.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-1,192,978	1,042,055	150,923
– Gross Longs:	474,604	4,958,885	426,265
– Gross Shorts:	1,667,582	3,916,830	275,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	78.6	94.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-14.6	0.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -859,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -74,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	62.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-859,015	810,792	48,223
– Gross Longs:	476,861	3,765,976	411,708
– Gross Shorts:	1,335,876	2,955,184	363,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	98.5	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	21.9	-0.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	75.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	62.3	13.7
– Net Position:	-179,110	280,254	-101,144
– Gross Longs:	298,951	1,591,383	186,641
– Gross Shorts:	478,061	1,311,129	287,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	87.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-12.1	-15.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -137,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	72.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	66.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-137,502	76,626	60,876
– Gross Longs:	174,607	1,031,332	206,676
– Gross Shorts:	312,109	954,706	145,800
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	40.6	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-8.6	16.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -330,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	80.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	60.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-330,468	317,381	13,087
– Gross Longs:	159,581	1,318,459	165,201
– Gross Shorts:	490,049	1,001,078	152,114
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	52.0	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	23.5	-7.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

03 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Nasdaq-Mini (6,209 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (6,162 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,489 contracts), the VIX (-5,347 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,315 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-175 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Markets Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (100 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week and are at the top of their 3-year ranges. The Russell-Mini (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (72.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (31.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (36.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (90.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (77.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (39.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (40.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (26 percent), the Russell-Mini (14 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-16.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-18.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (38.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-9.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	45.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	29.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-54,540	57,042	-2,502
– Gross Longs:	70,187	159,581	28,032
– Gross Shorts:	124,727	102,539	30,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	25.0	83.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	14.4	11.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -225,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -36,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	74.3	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	68.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-225,962	142,194	83,768
– Gross Longs:	284,559	1,715,110	264,947
– Gross Shorts:	510,521	1,572,916	181,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	59.5	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	2.6	4.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	48.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.7	12.0
– Net Position:	24,410	-26,351	1,941
– Gross Longs:	39,325	52,040	14,936
– Gross Shorts:	14,915	78,391	12,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.1	-28.6	11.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	69.3	11.3
– Net Position:	39,251	-47,893	8,642
– Gross Longs:	94,317	156,086	41,844
– Gross Shorts:	55,066	203,979	33,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-24.3	13.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	75.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	76.2	4.3
– Net Position:	-10,504	-1,488	11,992
– Gross Longs:	83,470	387,387	34,014
– Gross Shorts:	93,974	388,875	22,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.6	19.5	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-16.3	19.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	63.9	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.9	12.6
– Net Position:	-3,868	1,857	2,011
– Gross Longs:	1,931	10,736	4,133
– Gross Shorts:	5,799	8,879	2,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	47.2	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	0.4	23.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	83.5	2.0
– Net Position:	-29,562	24,171	5,391
– Gross Longs:	31,441	376,774	13,648
– Gross Shorts:	61,003	352,603	8,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.8	61.8	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.2	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

01 Feb

Target Thursdays: UK100 & AUDUSD hit profit target

By ForexTime

UK100 soars through profit levels

AUDUSD bears bag 30 pips

Bonus: Keep on USDInd trading range

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

UK100 hits all take-profit levels

The UK100 which tracks the benchmark FTSE100 index soared through the bullish intra-day price targets this morning.

Profit target hit: YES, 4 out of 4 profit targets have been hit.

Why: The UK100 has an inverse relationship with the British pound. A weaker pound is bullish for the index.

Technical forces: Prices are bullish on the 30-minute timeframe.

The above scenario (UK100) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

AUDUSD selloff rewards 30 pips

AUDUSD tumbled like a house of cards, sliding past and beyond all the pre-defined take profit levels.

Profit target hit: YES, 4 out of 4 profit targets have been hit this morning.

Why: A broadly stronger dollar following Wednesday’s Fed meeting dragged prices lower.

Technical forces: Prices are bearish on the 30-minute timeframe.

The above scenario (AUDUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

GBPUSD bears halted by BoE

In our trade of the week, we discussed whether the GBPUSD was on the brink of a major breakout. On Thursday morning prices started to move with the BoE policy decision sparking volatility.

Profit target hit: NO, but bears came close to hitting 1.2600 level.

Why: Despite tumbling on Wednesday evening, prices rebounded following the BoE decision on Thursday. UK rates were left unchanged, but BoE Governor stated more evidence was needed before lowering rates.

Technical forces: Prices back within range but weakness below the 50-day SMA may support bears.

Bonus: Will USDInd bullish setup be triggered?

Last Friday, the USDInd hijacked our attention due to the heavy-hitting events this week. After swinging within a range, a breakout could be around the corner.

Profit target hit: NO, but prices are testing the 103.70 resistance.

Why: Dollar boosted by Fed’s hawkish remarks and falling odds of rate cut in March. NFP on Friday in focus.

Technical forces: Daily close above 103.70 may open a path towards the 100-day SMA at 104.40.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Feb

Stock indices were pressured by Powell’s comments. German inflation retreats

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.82%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.61% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 2.33%. The S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) indices fell to weekly lows.

As expected, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% and stated that the risks to employment and inflation targets are becoming more balanced. The FOMC removed mention of possible additional policy tightening but declined to immediately ease monetary policy, saying it did not believe it was appropriate to lower the target range until there was greater confidence that inflation was moving steadily toward 2%. During the press conference, Powell said a rate cut in March was not a base scenario and reiterated a commitment to keep rates at current levels. Markets are discounting the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting at 37% and fully discounting (100%) the probability of the same 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Investors now await the weekly jobless claims and PMI reports from ISM on Thursday and the much-anticipated monthly employment report on Friday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.40%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.27%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.38% on Wednesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.47%.

German Consumer Price Index for January (EU harmonized) declined to 3.1% y/y from 3.8% y/y in December, better than expectations of 3.2% y/y. Germany’s January unemployment change unexpectedly fell by 2,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of an 11,000 increase. The unemployment rate for January was unchanged at 5.8%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of 5.9%. German retail sales for December unexpectedly fell by 1.6% m/m, weaker than expectations for a 0.6% m/m increase.

ECB Vice President Gindos said that inflation has been delivering mostly positive surprises lately and will be slightly lower than the ECB’s forecast. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on March 7 at 23% and fully discount (103%) the same rate cut at the next meeting on April 11.

Silver prices came under pressure on Wednesday amid weaker-than-expected reports on Chicago’s PMI and China’s manufacturing PMI for January, a negative for industrial metals demand.

WTI crude futures rose above $76 a barrel on Thursday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses amid an improved demand outlook. The IEA executive director recently said that global oil demand is likely to grow by 2 million barrels per day in 2024, well above the previous forecast of 1.24 million barrels per day. Prospects for lower interest rates in major economies and a series of stimulus measures in China, a major oil importer, have also boosted the demand outlook. OPEC+ representatives will meet online today. No changes in production are expected, but we should always be ready for surprises.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 1.39% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.12%.

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI unexpectedly jumped to 50.8 in January 2024, matching December’s reading but exceeding market forecasts of 50.6. It was the third consecutive month of rising factory activity, contrasting with official data that indicated prolonged weakness.

Japan’s Consumer Confidence Index for January rose by 0.8 to a 2-year high of 38.0, exceeding expectations of 37.5. Japanese industrial production for December rose by 1.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of 2.5% m/m. Retail Sales in Japan for December unexpectedly fell by 2.9% mom, weaker than expectations of 0.2% mom and the biggest decline in 3 years. A summary of the BoJ’s January 22-23 policy meeting said policymakers are getting closer to raising interest rates for the first time since 2007. A BoJ official indicated that conditions for a policy review, including an end to the negative interest rate policy, are being met. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps rate hike from the BOJ at 24% at the next meeting on March 19 and 80% at the April 26 meeting.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.57% in January 2024 from 2.61% in December, compared with expectations of 2.55%, approaching the midpoint of the central bank’s target of 1.5 to 3.5% for 2024.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,845.65 −79.32 (−1.61%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,150.30 −317.01 (−0.82%)

DAX (DE40) 16,903.76 −68.58 (−0.40%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,630.57 −35.74 (−0.47%)

USD Index 103.57 +0.29 (+0.28%)

News feed for 2024.02.01:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– OPEC+ meeting (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+2);
– Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 Jan

The IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast. Australia has seen a decline in inflationary pressures

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.36% as of Tuesday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.06% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.76%.

The US economic reports released on Tuesday showed a growing US economy, bolstering optimism that the Federal Reserve will be able to provide a soft landing. The January Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index rose by 6.8 points to a 2-year high of 114.8, matching expectations. In addition, the December JOLTS Job Openings Index unexpectedly rose by 101,000 to 9.026 million, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 8.750 million.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting in the US today. The Central Bank intends to keep interest rates unchanged, but the focus will be on any hints about the timing and speed of rate cuts this year. Markets will react to any change in the tone of the FOMC statement. A more dovish tone of the statement will put pressure on government bonds and the US dollar, giving confidence to indices and gold. On the other hand, a cautious tone due to persistent service inflation and data dependence may provoke investors to be overly cautious in the form of a sell-off in equities, especially as indices are at all-time highs.

General Motors shares rose by 7.8% after the company beat earnings and revenue forecasts and provided a better-than-expected earnings outlook for 2023. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares hit an all-time high of 627.74. Alphabet (GOOG) shares fell by 6% on the report. Alphabet disappointed Wall Street as holiday ad sales came in below expectations, but the company said its spending on servers to power artificial intelligence will increase this year. Microsoft (MSFT) reported second-quarter results Tuesday that beat analysts’ forecasts, as rising demand for artificial intelligence boosted the tech giant’s cloud computing business. But the company’s shares fell by nearly 2% on the report.

The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 3.1% from 2.9% in October and left its 2025 forecast unchanged at 3.2% amid better-than-expected resilience in the US and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China. Growth forecasts for 2024 were revised upward for the US (2.1% vs. 1.5%), China (4.6% vs. 4.2%) and India (6.5% vs. 6.3%), but the institution expects lower growth in the Eurozone (0.9% vs. 1.2%) and Japan (0.9% vs. 1%).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly rising yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) gained 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.51% on Tuesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive by 0.44%.

Frankfurt’s DAX (DE40) index rose above the 17,000-point mark for the first time but then eased back to close at 16,980 points. Investors were analyzing the latest GDP data and its potential impact on the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook. The German economy contracted by 0.3% in the fourth quarter after two consecutive periods of stagnation, driven by persistent inflation, rising energy prices, and weaker external demand. On an annualized basis, the German economy contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, entering a technical recession for the first time since 2020-21.

The euro area economy unexpectedly stalled in the last three months of 2023 after contracting by 0.1% in the previous period. The common bloc avoided recession at the end of 2023 thanks to better-than-expected growth in Spain (+0.6%) and Italy (+0.2%), while the French economy stalled and the largest Germany contracted by 0.3%. Other small economies, including Portugal (+0.8%), Belgium (+0.4%), Latvia (+0.4%), and Austria (+0.2%), also contributed positively to GDP. On the other hand, declines were seen in Ireland (-0.7%) and Lithuania (-0.3%). The Eurozone’s outlook for 2024 remains challenging amid high borrowing costs and prices, weaker domestic and external demand, and a weakening manufacturing sector, especially in Germany.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 0.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 1.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 2.32% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.29% on Tuesday.

Australian inflation fell to 4.1% y/y in Q4 2023 from 5.4% in Q3, indicating the lowest level since Q4 2021, compared to market expectations of 4.3%. The Australian dollar depreciated to $0.657, hitting its lowest level in a week, as weak inflation data spurred bets the country will cut interest rates soon. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting, while there is about a two-thirds chance of a rate cut in June, and a rate cut in August is already fully priced in.

China’s official manufacturing PMI came in at 49.2 in January 2024, matching forecasts and up from December’s 6-month low of 49.0. China’s composite PMI rose to 50.9 in January 2024 from 50.9 in the previous month. This is the highest reading since September last year, with the services sector rising the most in four months, while the decline in factory activity continued for the fourth consecutive month. The latest data suggests that the momentum of the Chinese economy remains weak amid numerous piecemeal support measures targeting specific sectors. Meanwhile, the central bank has taken a raft of measures in recent months, including large cash injections and an unexpected reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks, which will take effect in early February.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,924.97 −2.96 (−0.06%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,467.31 +133.86 (+0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 16,972.34 +30.63 (+0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,666.31 +33.57 (+0.44%)

USD Index 103.39 −0.22 (−0.21%)

News feed for 2024.01.31:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 Jan

Bitcoin bulls back in town after weekly breakout

By ForexTime

Bitcoin bullish on D1 timeframe

W1 support could provide long opportunity

Prices above 50 LWMA on H4 timeframe

4 potential bullish targets if 43865.08 breached

Bullish scenario invalidated below 41597.80

Bitcoin kicked of the week charging through a significant resistance level at 42053.06, signalling the start of a potential uptrend on the daily timeframe.

This was confirmed by the most recent higher bottom and higher top created in yesterday’s trading session. Despite the bullish outlook, bears are currently busy with a correction wave and will be aiming at the weekly resistance turned support to test the bullish resolve.

Nevertheless, this sets up possible long opportunities on lower time frames if the bulls can regain their momentum and keep on dominating the market.

On the 4-hour chart a beautiful uptrend is in progress with consecutively higher tops and bottom in place. The price is also above the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with the Momentum and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillators in clear bullish terrain.

If the price reaches the 43865.08 level, yet another higher top will be in process, and this presents a long opportunity.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 43865.08 and dragging it to the last higher bottom at 41597.80, four possible conservative targets can be determined:

Target 1: 44771.99
Target 2: 45225.45
Target 3: 46132.36
Target 4: 47266.00

If the price breaks past the 41597.80 level, this opportunity is no longer feasible, and a short opportunity might become possible from a 4-hour market structure point of view.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

30 Jan

NAS100 poised for new all-time high?

By ForexTime

NAS100 waits for big tech earnings

Microsoft & Alphabet in focus

Index bullish but RSI overbought

Key levels of interest at 17306.2 & 17650.4

The NAS100 is set to make significant moves over the next few days as 5 of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech titans report quarterly earnings.

Microsoft and Alphabet kick-off updates after US markets close on Tuesday to an incredibly busy week for US equities.

On Thursday, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are scheduled to publish their latest results.

When factoring the Fed decision mid-week and the US jobs report on Friday, this could be a pivotal week for the index.

With advancement in Artificial Intelligence fueling growth in the Magnificent 7 companies, a bullish earnings guidance could be on the cards.

This may influence NAS100 bulls – those looking to see the index move higher.

NOTE: This new NAS100 index tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index.

Technically speaking, NAS100 is in a sideways range formed over the last 7 trading days.

At the time of writing, it is testing the resistance zone of this range.

The Relative strength index (an indicator that highlights overbought and oversold zones) reveals that NAS100 is overbought.

NAS100 bulls will be looking for a strong close above the channel at 17650.4, with their eyes set no new highs above the all-time high of 17686.8.

Bears (those looking to see the index decline) on the other hand will see a miss in earnings as an opportunity to test the range’s support zone at 17306.2.

A strong close below the range support zone may see the index test the following support levels

· 17105.1: The 21-Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

· 17008.8: The upward-sloping trendline drawn from the October 26th low

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

29 Jan

USD in Limbo as Market Anticipates Fed’s Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing minimal fluctuations as it consolidates around 1.0840 this Monday. The focus of market players is squarely on the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, which is poised to be the week’s pivotal event. The outcome of this meeting is highly anticipated, as the Fed will disclose whether it plans to lower interest rates in March or opt for a more cautious approach, delaying any changes until May.

This meeting is significant as the Federal Reserve is expected to be the first major central bank in this cycle of stringent policies to initiate a softening of monetary conditions. This prospect has injected a sense of heightened anticipation into the currency markets.

Later in the week, additional attention will be on the release of US labor market statistics for January. Key indicators to watch include the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), forecasted to show a rise of 173 thousand – a slowdown from the previous 216 thousand. Additionally, average hourly earnings are projected to exhibit a 0.3% month-over-month increase, slightly down from the prior 0.4% increase.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, a downward trend towards 1.0793 is emerging. Following this target, a corrective move to 1.0833, testing from below, is possible before a further decline to 1.0737. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.

In the H1 chart analysis, the pair has completed a correction to 1.0884 and has started a new downward movement towards 1.0839. A consolidation range is expected to form around this level. If the pair breaks below this range, the decline could continue to 1.0803. The Stochastic oscillator, currently at the 50 mark, indicates a potential drop to 20, aligning with this downward trend scenario.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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