InvestMacro

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels show where current Open Futures Contracts are highest and lowest (higher interest can fuel trends and setup for more potential moves & vice versa) for currency markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (6,713 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (5,446 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,012 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (1,752 contracts) also seeing gaining weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-17,624 contracts), the British Pound (-14,668 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,117 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-1,416 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,242 contracts), Bitcoin (-466 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-305 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Aussie Bets Higher, Euro & GBP Bets fall this week

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning for last week through Tuesday was the continued bullishness for speculators in the Australian dollar. The New Zealand dollar speculator bets continued to improve despite being bearish while the Euro bets took a breather and the British pound speculator position went increasingly bearish.

First off, the Australian dollar speculator position rose this week for a 13th consecutive week, with speculator positions adding a total of +136,820 net contracts over that time period. This has taken the Australian dollar net position from a total of -84,176 contracts on November 25th to this week’s net position of 52,644 contracts. This is the best level for the Australian dollar net position since October 24th of 2017, a span of 435 weeks. The Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market has continued to rally since the beginning of the year and is up by almost 6.50 percent since the start of 2026. Since the AUD lows in February of last year, the Australian dollar has risen by over 16 percent against the US dollar. The Aussie has been able to hold above the major 0.7000 level and closed out the week above the 0.7100 exchange rate. The AUD has been having its highest weekly closes at the highest levels since early 2023.

The New Zealand dollar speculator position has been improving steadily, with weekly speculator bets improving in six out of the last eleven weeks for an eleven-week gain of 27,214 net contracts. These gains date back to December 9th when the net position totaled -56,781 net contracts, which was the all-time low or most bearish level in history for the NZD speculator positions. Since then, the bets have been improving and this week reached a -29,567 net contract level, the best level or least bearish standing of the past twenty weeks. In the spot price market, the NZD has been up in six out of the past seven weeks and is currently trading right around the major psychological level of 0.6000 threshold, which also coincides with the two hundred weekly moving average.

Euro speculator bets took a breather this week and fell for a second consecutive week. The Euro speculator positions have been mixed over the last ten weeks, with five weeks of falling speculator bets and five weeks of gaining speculator bets. Although the net change over the last ten weeks has been roughly a +12,000 net contracts. Overall, the speculator positioning for the Euro remains highly bullish with this week’s net position over +156,000 contracts. This marks the 13th consecutive week that the net position has been over +100,000 net contracts, and this is the 33rd out of the last 37 weeks that the net position has been over +100,000 net contracts. In the forex markets, the Euro closed over the 1.1820 level this week after seeing a small weekly gain. Continued overhead and major resistance resides at 1.2000, while there is support at the 1.1750 level, as well as the 1.1600 level below.

The British pound sterling saw its third week of strong bearish positioning and has now dropped by over -43,000 net contracts in the past three weeks. Previously, the British pound sterling had seen ten straight weeks of gains, so these last three weeks have cooled off that streak of bets. This week’s net position of negative -57,072 net contracts is the most bearish level of the past eleven weeks. Overall, the British pound sterling has been in bearish territory for 31 consecutive weeks dating back to July 2025. In the foreign exchange markets, the British pound sterling closed out the week at the 1.3480 level and has fallen for three out of the past four weeks. Currently, the bulls and the bears are battling it out around the 1.3500 area to see if this currency is gonna continue higher or take a breather and retreat lower. Since the beginning of 2025, the British pound has been up by approximately 11 percent against the US dollar in that time-frame.

The US dollar index bets dipped this week following four consecutive weeks of gains that had brought the US dollar index net position into a small bullish level last week. Last week’s pop up into the bullish level was the first time since June 2025 that the US dollar index had seen a bullish net contract position, a span of 36 weeks. This week’s dollar index speculator position dipped by over -2,100 contracts, bringing the overall net positioning to -1,789 net contracts. Essentially, this is a neutral position for speculator contracts and shows there is no dominant trend in where the speculators are leaning, with uncertainty as to whether we go up or down from here. In the Forex markets, the USD index had a small dip this week in price and is settling in and consolidating around the 97.50 exchange rate. The USD index has overhead resistance at the 98.00 level, while there is also strong support below as prices have bounced off the 96.50 level at least three times since June and have been unable to hold below that level for any amount of time.

Brazilian Real leads Currency Market Price Performance

This week’s five-day price performance was led by the Brazilian real, which rose by over one percent with a 1.03 percent gain on the week. The Swiss franc came in second with a 0.91 percent increase, followed by the Australian dollar, which rose by 0.50 percent on the week.

The New Zealand dollar was higher by 0.40 percent, followed by the Canadian dollar, which saw an uptick by 0.35 percent. The Euro was marginally higher at 0.32 percent.

On the downside, Bitcoin saw a -3.02 percent shortfall on the week. The Mexican peso was down by -0.62 percent, followed by the Japanese yen with a similar -0.61 percent decline. The US dollar index was lower by -0.11 percent, and the British pound was virtually unchanged with a small edge lower by -0.02 percent.

Over the past thirty days, the Australian dollar has been the standout performer with a 6.49 percent gain over that period. The Brazilian real has been up by 4.87 percent while the Swiss franc has been higher by 4.55 percent and the New Zealand dollar has also floated higher by 4.29 percent in the 30-day time-frame.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish, a 50 score is right down the middle of the past 3-Years) showed that the Canadian Dollar (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (88 percent), Bitcoin (78 percent) and the Mexican Peso (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (15 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (31 percent) and the US Dollar Index (39 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (39.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (88.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (95.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (53.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (54.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (99.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (95.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (24.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (67.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (66.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (63.0 percent)
Bitcoin (77.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.4 percent)

Australian Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (45 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (23 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the Japanese Yen (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-12 percent) following next with a lower trend score.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.2 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (1.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (29.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-7.6 percent)
Bitcoin (23.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (50.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 156,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 82,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, AUD & CAD

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (32,061 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,722 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (12,550 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,378 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,057 contracts), the Brazilian Real (681 contracts) and Bitcoin (621 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-16,594 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,825 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-829 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-94 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

Highlighting the currency data this week, there were strong gains by the Japanese Yen, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar while the US Dollar Index saw its first bullish position in quite a while.

The Japanese yen speculator position this week rose by over +32,000 weekly contracts. This was the highest jump in one-week contracts since October. The Japanese weekly speculator contracts have now risen for five consecutive weeks and in seven out of the last nine weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the Japanese yen net speculator position back into a bullish level with a total net standing of 12,955 contracts this week. This is the first positive week out of the last six weeks for the Japanese yen position in the FOREX markets. The Japanese yen has continued to be a subdued currency against the US dollar and saw a shortfall this week. The USD/JPY currency pair this week closed above the 155.00 level, which remains near historic Japanese yen weakness. However, this currency pair has bounced off of resistance at the 160.00 level for the third time in the past year.

The Australian Dollar speculator position continues to improve week to week. This week’s gain was over +12,000 contracts, and the Australian Dollar speculator position has now risen for 12 consecutive weeks. The spec position has jumped by over +130,000 contracts in the past 12 weeks, which has brought the position from a -84,176 contracts on November 25th to this week’s total of 45,931 net contracts. The Australian Dollar speculator level had been so consistently bearish that we have not seen a net position above this week’s level since October of 2017. In the forex markets, the Australian Dollar keeps chugging along higher against the US Dollar and this week closed above the 0.7075 level, marking the highest close since 2023. The Australian Dollar is higher by approximately 6% since the beginning of 2026.

Next up, the Canadian Dollar has also been on a rise as the speculator position has now risen for five consecutive weeks and has been higher in 10 out of the last 12 weeks. In just these last 12 weeks alone, the speculator position has surged by +176,240 contracts, taking the overall net position from a super bearish total of -150,414 net contracts on November 25th to this week’s bullish position of 25,826 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar has also been modestly rising in the currency markets against the US Dollar. Since November, the CAD is up by approximately 3% and the CAD currently trades just below its 200-week moving average at the 0.7312 exchange rate.

Next up, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen four consecutive weekly gains in speculator positions and has now seen higher speculator bets on a weekly basis in 11 out of the past 12 weeks. This week’s gain brought the overall USD Index net positioning to a small bullish position of just +328 contracts. This is the first bullish position since June of 2025, a span of 36 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the USD Index was higher by almost 1% on the week, but price gains were rejected around the 98.00 resistance level. Since the start of 2025, the DXY is down by approximately 11% and currently, the DXY has overhead resistance at 98.00, while looking lower around the 96.50 level, there has been strong support found.

U.S. Dollar Index Leads Price Gains This Week

The U.S. Dollar Index was the highest riser over the past five days, with a 1.01% increase on the week. The Mexican Peso was marginally higher with a 0.22% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.12%.

On the downside, the biggest decline was seen by Bitcoin which fell by -1.58% followed by the Japanese Yen, which dipped by -1.49%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -1.23% followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which declined by -1.10%, and the Swiss Franc, which fell by -0.94%. The Euro dipped by -0.74% while the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.40%, and the Brazilian Real saw a modestly lower return by -0.24%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (95 percent), Bitcoin (87 percent) and the Mexican Peso (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is the lone currency in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (22 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (25 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.2 percent)
EuroFX (95.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (97.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (94.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (24.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (68.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (63.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (62.5 percent)
Bitcoin (87.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.2 percent)

Bitcoin & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (50 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (30 percent), the US Dollar Index (11 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.7 percent)
EuroFX (4.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.2 percent)
Bitcoin (50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 174,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 180,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 32,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (31,227 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,972 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (18,176 contracts), the Japanese Yen (14,711 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (13,451 contracts), the Brazilian Real (12,117 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,553 contracts), the British Pound (2,251 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,176 contracts) and Bitcoin (318 contracts) with also showing positive weeks.

The currency seeing declines in speculator bets on the week was the Mexican Peso with a drop by -12,522 contracts on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply boost Euro bets to highest since 2023, CAD bets go Bullish

Highlighting this week’s currency speculator changes were the strong gains in the Euro, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar.

First off, the Euro jumped by over 30,000 contracts this week and this week’s gain marked the largest one-week gain since March of 2025, when speculative bets surged by over +46,000 contracts. This week’s surge follows last week’s rise by over 20,000 contracts and has now pushed the overall speculative level to a total of 163,361 net contracts, which marks the highest level for the Euro bets dating back to August 1st of 2023. The European currency’s speculative standing has now been above +100,000 net contracts for 10 consecutive weeks, and for 30 out of the last 34 weeks as well. The Euro exchange rate this week dipped slightly for a second consecutive week and closed out the week around the 1.1840 exchange level. Last week, however, the Euro hit its highest level since 2021 with a high around 1.2110 before retreating. We’ll see in the weeks to come if the Euro will threaten the 1.20 psychological threshold once again.

Next up, the Australian Dollar speculative bets surged higher for a second consecutive week, and are now in an overall bullish position also for a second straight week. Last week marked the first time since December of 2024 that the Australian Dollar speculative position was in bullish territory. And this week, the position grew further. The Australian Dollar exchange rate has risen for three consecutive weeks, and this week closed at the highest levels since 2023, where it closed above the 0.700 significant psychological level. The Australian Dollar is up by over 5% against the U.S. Dollar this year so far, and is higher by about 14% since the start of 2025. The weekly RSI for the Australian Dollar is currently in overbought position so we’ll see if the Aussie can hold these multi-year high levels.

The Canadian Dollar speculator positions rose for a third consecutive week, as well as the eighth time in the last ten weeks that speculator bets have been bullish. Overall, the net standing for the Canadian Dollar speculators this week went bullish with a total of 2,130 net contracts. This is the first time the Canadian Dollar has seen a bullish net contract level since August 1st of 2023, a span of 131 straight weeks. The turnaround in the Canadian Dollar speculator positions has been fast and furious as the net position totaled a -130,600 contracts as recently as December 9th. And then eight weeks later, the net position has managed to turn bullish. In the foreign exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar trades right around its 200-week moving average at the 0.7333 exchange rate. This week, the CAD fell a little bit, but has been higher in total over the past three weeks. Time will tell if the CAD can break through its 200-weekly moving average level and can work its way back to the strong support and resistance level of 0.7500.

The US Dollar Index saw improving bets for the second consecutive week and for the ninth time out of the last 10 weeks. This has taken the speculator level from a total of -16,347 net contracts down to a tiny bearish level of just -852 net contracts this week. Overall, the Dollar Index has consistently been in a bearish level dating back to June 10th of 2025, a span of 34 consecutive weeks. In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index saw a boost this week after falling for the previous two weeks and trades at the 97.50 level. Since the beginning of 2025, the Dollar Index has fallen by over 10%, however, prices have bounced off the 96.00 area three times since June. We’ll see if the Dollar Index can hold this level and can find its way higher or will eventually break lower.

Finally, the Swiss Franc positions rose modestly for a third consecutive week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. Interestingly, the Swiss Franc speculator net position is highly bearish and has been in an overall bearish level dating all the way back to September of 2021 while the Swiss Franc exchange rate is at the strongest levels it has traded since 2011. The dichotomy in the speculator positions versus the strength of the currency can be explained through hedging, as there has been reports that many business entities are hedging away the historic strength of the Swiss Franc at the current time while the Franc is also a sought-after safe haven in an uncertain geopolitical time. Currently, the Swiss Franc trades at 1.2946 against the U.S. Dollar in the exchange markets. Since the beginning of 2025, the Franc is up by approximately 18% against the U.S. Dollar and looks to be threatening the 1.30 major level.

Mexican Peso leads Currency Price Returns this week

The major currency markets price performance was led by the Mexican Peso this week. The Peso was the highest riser by 1.25% over the past five days. The Brazilian Real followed that up with a 0.99% gain. The Australian Dollar was higher by 0.79%. The US Dollar Index showed a 0.60% rise. The New Zealand Dollar was virtually unchanged at a 0.04% dip, followed by the euro which fell by 0.26%. The Canadian Dollar was lower by 0.28%. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.30%. The British Pound was lower by 0.48%. The Japanese Yen was lower by over 1% with a 1.48% decrease.

Bitcoin was the biggest loser on the week with a 16.45% drop.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (98 percent) and the Australian Dollar (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (91 percent), Bitcoin (74 percent) and the Mexican Peso (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent), the British Pound (34 percent) and the US Dollar Index (42 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (32.2 percent)
EuroFX (91.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (45.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (41.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (14.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (97.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (88.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (81.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (62.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.6 percent)
Bitcoin (74.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (67.3 percent)

Australian Dollar & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (34 percent) and the Bitcoin (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (29 percent), the British Pound (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-6 percent), Japanese Yen (-6 percent) and the EuroFX (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (8.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (1.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (11.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-8.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (28.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (34.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (33.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-5.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.2 percent)
Bitcoin (31.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 31,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,717 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,972 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,962 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.