COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 7

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Palladium, CAD, Sugar & Cocoa lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Palladium speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 7 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 1,133 net contracts this week with an increase of 449 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week with the CAD speculator level now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a jump by 29 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 2,130 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 18,176 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score came in at an increase by 8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,487 net contracts this week with a dip of -853 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 25,855 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,965 contracts in the speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The AUD speculator level sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a jump of 34 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 26,118 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 18,972 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the Sugar speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -210,289 net contracts this week with a fall of -42,536 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -16 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -14,508 net contracts this week with a rise of 994 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -42,744 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,777 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week. The speculator position was -1,347,602 net contracts this week with a decline of -128,603 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Next, the Natural Gas speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the Natural Gas speculator level at a 15 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall by -11 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -172,310 net contracts this week with a decrease by -8,704 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

08 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculators drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,174 contracts) with Palladium (449 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,792 contracts), Steel (-853 contracts), Platinum (-816 contracts) and with Copper (-576 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculator drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks to 37-Week Low

Highlighting the metals data this week was sharp reduction in the Gold speculator positions. The large speculative traders sharply reduced their bullish bets again this week, which is a decline for the third consecutive week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The reduction in the bullish position now totals -85,634 contracts over just the past three weeks brings the overall Gold speculator bullish position down to a total of 165,604 contracts. This marks the lowest level for the Gold position since last May, which is a span of 37 weeks.

The Gold futures price has settled in to end the week at approximately $4,980 and rebounded this week after a hugely volatile past couple weeks. The Gold price shot all the way to $5,625 on January 29th before turning around and then falling all the way back down to a low at approximately $4,430 before rebounding. Gold is still in a parabolic uptrend overall and from the beginning of 2024 to now, the price has jumped by over 144% and has continually hit new all-time highs.

Gold leads Metals Price Performance this week

Precious metals markets were mixed on the week in their price performance. Gold was the highest mover over the past five days with a 2.3% increase. Palladium was next this week with a 1.78% rise while Steel also advanced by 0.51%.

Copper dropped by -0.52% on the week while Palladium was lower by -2.99% and Silver came out the biggest loser on the week with a -6.9% loss.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (99 percent) and Steel (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Gold (39 percent), Platinum (44 percent) and Silver (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (38.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (54.9 percent)
Silver (44.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.0 percent)
Copper (77.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (78.3 percent)
Platinum (43.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.8 percent)
Palladium (99.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.4 percent)
Steel (95.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-18 percent) and Platinum (-16 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-30.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.7 percent)
Silver (-13.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-15.3 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.5 percent)
Palladium (6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.9 percent)
Steel (8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (17.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 165,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	21.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	72.2	3.5
– Net Position:	165,604	-207,778	42,174
– Gross Longs:	214,508	87,964	56,610
– Gross Shorts:	48,904	295,742	14,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	52.9	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	30.4	-1.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	24.6	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	56.6	8.8
– Net Position:	25,877	-45,725	19,848
– Gross Longs:	38,883	35,248	32,469
– Gross Shorts:	13,006	80,973	12,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	50.1	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	10.6	8.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	31.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	53.7	3.1
– Net Position:	47,814	-62,551	14,737
– Gross Longs:	97,407	87,240	23,314
– Gross Shorts:	49,593	149,791	8,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	16.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	15.4	7.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	26.8	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	54.3	3.7
– Net Position:	13,106	-20,207	7,101
– Gross Longs:	31,468	19,742	9,851
– Gross Shorts:	18,362	39,949	2,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	54.4	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	13.3	12.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	31.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	44.8	8.0
– Net Position:	1,133	-2,307	1,174
– Gross Longs:	8,518	5,453	2,557
– Gross Shorts:	7,385	7,760	1,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	3.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-4.1	-11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	54.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	90.3	0.5
– Net Position:	11,487	-11,980	493
– Gross Longs:	13,849	18,584	679
– Gross Shorts:	2,362	30,564	186
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	4.0	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.3	35.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

08 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Months, SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Months, SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (104,956 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (47,235 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (44,056 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,382 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-128,603 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-67,934 contracts), the Fed Funds (-78,674 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-5,437 contracts) and with the 10-Year Bonds (-3,263 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Overall in the bond market standings, speculator net positions continue to be bearish for all the bond markets we cover ranging from a small bearish position in the long US Treasury Bond (-13,604 contracts) to large bearish levels in the 2-Year Bonds (-1,347,602 contracts) and even larger bearish levels for the 5-Year Bonds (-2,158,980 contracts).

Bond Market Price Performances were led by the long US Treasury Bond

The bond market prices were mixed this week and were led by the US Treasury bond which was the highest mover on the week with a 0.47% increase. The 10-Year Note was also marginally higher by 0.14% while the 1-Month SOFR was up by 0.03% and followed by the 3-Month SOFR which saw an uptick of 0.02%.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond fell by -0.03% while the Fed Funds was down by -0.04% and the 2-Year Bond was marginally lower by -0.16%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (79 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (70 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the Fed Funds (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (27.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (49.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (60.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (48.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (78.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (80.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (70.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (68.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (59.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (32.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.6 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (58 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the the SOFR 3-Months (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-63.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (57.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (41.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-25.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-21.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -194,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -78,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	65.8	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	56.0	1.5
– Net Position:	-194,703	173,303	21,400
– Gross Longs:	181,635	1,162,282	47,582
– Gross Shorts:	376,338	988,979	26,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	69.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.8	64.1	-1.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -546,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 47,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -594,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	58.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	54.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-546,807	546,500	307
– Gross Longs:	1,616,585	8,021,109	40,586
– Gross Shorts:	2,163,392	7,474,609	40,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	67.9	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	25.6	-0.2

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 104,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	64.0	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	55.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-103,083	103,205	-122
– Gross Longs:	226,426	778,656	120
– Gross Shorts:	329,509	675,451	242
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	40.3	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	57.5	-57.9	6.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,347,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -128,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,218,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	75.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	48.4	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,347,602	1,247,780	99,822
– Gross Longs:	755,987	3,495,535	234,959
– Gross Shorts:	2,103,589	2,247,755	135,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	90.2	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	1.2	-12.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,158,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -67,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	53.1	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,158,980	2,030,958	128,022
– Gross Longs:	543,500	5,693,498	440,462
– Gross Shorts:	2,702,480	3,662,540	312,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	75.9	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.3	-7.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -729,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -726,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	75.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.6	6.5
– Net Position:	-729,414	664,990	64,424
– Gross Longs:	698,068	4,160,322	423,256
– Gross Shorts:	1,427,482	3,495,332	358,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	54.2	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	0.9	-6.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -185,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 44,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	78.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.2	12.5
– Net Position:	-185,818	306,416	-120,598
– Gross Longs:	291,036	2,065,570	207,872
– Gross Shorts:	476,854	1,759,154	328,470
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	56.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-8.7	-63.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	74.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	79.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-13,604	-83,622	97,226
– Gross Longs:	173,194	1,285,239	237,672
– Gross Shorts:	186,798	1,368,861	140,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	19.1	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	11.1	-23.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -269,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	71.3	8.7
– Net Position:	-269,089	268,015	1,074
– Gross Longs:	149,389	1,828,456	191,098
– Gross Shorts:	418,478	1,560,441	190,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	44.8	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	18.3	-11.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

08 Feb

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (27,583 contracts) with Brent Oil (7,638 contracts) and Heating Oil (1,444 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-8,704 contracts), Gasoline (-2,782 contracts) and with the Bloomberg Index (-1,171 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The Energy Markets Prices were mostly lower on the week.

Gasoline was the only energy market that rose over the past five days with a small 0.09% uptick.

On the downside, Brent Oil fell by -2.82%, followed by WTI Crude Oil which fell by -3.18% and the Bloomberg Commodity Index which dipped by -3.28%. Heating oil saw a shortfall of -5.05% while Natural Gas saw a sharpest decline at -21.48%.

Over the past 30 days, all the energy markets have seen higher levels with Heating Oil up by 12.8% followed by Brent Oil which is higher by 11.2% in that time-frame. Also, over the past 90 days, all the energy markets have seen higher levels with the Bloomberg Commodity Index showing the largest gain of 15.69%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Bloomberg Index

On the downside, Natural Gas (14.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the WTI Crude (27.3 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (27.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (18.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (21.6 percent)
Natural Gas (14.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (20.9 percent)
Gasoline (71.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (74.6 percent)
Heating Oil (76.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (72.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (78.3 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (45.2 percent) and WTI Crude (19.2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-11.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-5.4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (19.2 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (13.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-5.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-14.9 percent)
Natural Gas (-11.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-24.9 percent)
Gasoline (6.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.1 percent)
Heating Oil (15.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (11.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (45.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (72.1 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 124,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	42.1	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	49.4	2.0
– Net Position:	124,565	-152,499	27,934
– Gross Longs:	315,529	879,932	70,726
– Gross Shorts:	190,964	1,032,431	42,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	70.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-25.8	50.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	37.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	23.8	2.0
– Net Position:	-34,110	33,458	652
– Gross Longs:	57,804	90,456	5,467
– Gross Shorts:	91,914	56,998	4,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	70.4	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	8.7	-22.1

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -172,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -163,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	37.5	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	27.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-172,310	163,456	8,854
– Gross Longs:	215,099	620,513	48,080
– Gross Shorts:	387,409	457,057	39,226
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	87.5	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	10.7	0.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 76,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,782 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	46.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.1	3.2
– Net Position:	76,431	-88,857	12,426
– Gross Longs:	116,257	216,553	27,515
– Gross Shorts:	39,826	305,410	15,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	23.0	93.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-12.5	39.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	46.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	58.6	7.8
– Net Position:	25,279	-44,051	18,772
– Gross Longs:	62,759	170,829	47,433
– Gross Shorts:	37,480	214,880	28,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.8	24.6	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-13.1	4.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	72.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	69.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-7,246	6,537	709
– Gross Longs:	44,675	133,218	732
– Gross Shorts:	51,921	126,681	23
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	31.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	25.5	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.2	-46.3	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

08 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar Speculator Bets hit All-Time Record Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,433 contracts) with Wheat (13,894 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,118 contracts), Soybeans (6,736 contracts), Live Cattle (2,871 contracts) and Cocoa (994 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-42,536 contracts), Coffee (-14,370 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,369 contracts), Cotton (-3,777 contracts) and with Corn (-3,027 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft commodities price performance was led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil, and Soybeans

The top movers this week in price performance for the soft commodities markets were Lean Hogs with a gain of 3.74%, followed by Soybean Oil which rose by 3.17%, and Soybeans which rose by 3.46% over the past five days. Corn was virtually unchanged with a small rise of 0.11%, while Live Cattle was unchanged on the week.

On the downside, Sugar fell by -0.76%, while Cocoa was lower by -1.10% and wheat was down by -1.29%. Cotton dropped by over two percent with a -2.30% decline, while Soybean Meal fell by -3.76%. Coffee was the biggest decliner on the week with a sharp drop of -10.05%.

Sugar Speculator Bets hit all-time low

Highlighting the soft commodities changes this week was an all-time record low hit in the Sugar speculator positions. The large speculator bets for Sugar fell for the fifth consecutive week, and have now fallen by over -72,000 contracts in just these past five weeks. This week’s decline by over -42,000 contracts marked the largest shortfall in spec bets since September, a span of 21 weeks.

Sugar bets for speculators were positive as recently as May of last year, but turned negative on June 3rd, and have now been in an overall bearish position for 36 consecutive weeks. The speculator bets have pushed their bearish positions greater than -100,000 net contracts for 22 consecutive weeks. This weak sentiment culminated in an all-time record low standing for speculators at a total position of -210,289 contracts through Tuesday.

The Sugar price in the futures market has been on a deep, strong downtrend and has fallen approximately 34% in the past 52 weeks. The Sugar price had been on a strong uptrend starting from April of 2020 all the way through November of 2023, where prices rose by over 200%. Since that 2022 high, however, prices have gone the other way and have declined by over 50% and are currently hovering near five-year lows.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (83 percent) and Live Cattle (68 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Soybeans (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (3 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (31.9 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.7 percent)
Coffee (41.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybeans (57.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.8 percent)
Live Cattle (68.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (82.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (73.2 percent)
Cotton (13.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.9 percent)
Cocoa (3.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.2 percent)
Wheat (46.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (34.4 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (54 percent) and Lean Hogs (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (13 percent) and Wheat (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-16 percent), Corn (-14 percent) and Sugar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-13.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-6.3 percent)
Sugar (-12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.1 percent)
Coffee (-5.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybeans (-20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (54.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-8.5 percent)
Live Cattle (12.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (29.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.1 percent)
Cotton (-6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-15.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (5.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -34,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	44.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	41.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-34,698	52,916	-18,218
– Gross Longs:	344,781	777,607	142,658
– Gross Shorts:	379,479	724,691	160,876
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	65.2	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	14.2	6.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -210,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -42,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	57.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	35.0	9.9
– Net Position:	-210,289	236,034	-25,745
– Gross Longs:	154,357	606,374	78,697
– Gross Shorts:	364,646	370,340	104,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	14.4	-25.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	44.2	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	54.7	4.6
– Net Position:	18,364	-18,837	473
– Gross Longs:	49,342	79,405	8,768
– Gross Shorts:	30,978	98,242	8,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	60.0	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	6.0	-14.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	51.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	56.3	8.2
– Net Position:	64,167	-43,272	-20,895
– Gross Longs:	177,970	454,017	51,496
– Gross Shorts:	113,803	497,289	72,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	42.7	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	24.5	-35.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	47.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	53.5	4.3
– Net Position:	35,907	-39,953	4,046
– Gross Longs:	138,652	317,654	32,766
– Gross Shorts:	102,745	357,607	28,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	38.1	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-54.2	35.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	52.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	55.0	6.0
– Net Position:	2,824	-15,616	12,792
– Gross Longs:	113,333	284,653	45,555
– Gross Shorts:	110,509	300,269	32,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	69.3	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.1	2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 91,849 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	32.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	55.9	11.9
– Net Position:	91,849	-79,657	-12,192
– Gross Longs:	151,701	108,319	27,757
– Gross Shorts:	59,852	187,976	39,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	25.2	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-17.0	3.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 79,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.2	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	49.0	8.6
– Net Position:	79,369	-70,574	-8,795
– Gross Longs:	161,832	113,508	23,472
– Gross Shorts:	82,463	184,082	32,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	20.0	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.9	-29.5	-18.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	49.1	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	38.0	3.7
– Net Position:	-42,744	42,398	346
– Gross Longs:	101,788	186,654	14,382
– Gross Shorts:	144,532	144,256	14,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	85.7	25.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	6.1	0.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	47.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	39.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-14,508	13,961	547
– Gross Longs:	31,042	76,466	10,089
– Gross Shorts:	45,550	62,505	9,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.2	95.7	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	12.8	23.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	36.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	24.2	6.1
– Net Position:	-65,496	67,064	-1,568
– Gross Longs:	121,319	198,550	31,828
– Gross Shorts:	186,815	131,486	33,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	54.8	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-5.3	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

01 Feb

Australian Dollar Speculator bets go bullish for 1st time in 59 Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (25,739 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (21,157 contracts), the EuroFX (20,439 contracts), the Japanese Yen (10,896 contracts), the British Pound (5,818 contracts), the US Dollar Index (2,013 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,865 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,204 contracts), Bitcoin (392 contracts), and with the Swiss Franc (314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Mexican Peso with a decrease of -4,039 contracts.

NZD leads Price Performance Returns for FX this week

In the currency markets this week, the New Zealand Dollar saw the biggest rise on the week with a 1.25% gain in the past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 1.12%, followed by the Australian Dollar which rose by 1.01%. The Japanese Yen came in next with a 0.67% rise, followed by the Canadian Dollar which increased by 0.60% on the week, while the Brazilian Real was up by 0.59%. The British Pound also saw a small gain this week with a 0.34% rise, and the Euro rounds out the gainers with a 0.27% increase.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline of -0.22%, followed by the Mexican Peso which fell by -0.59%. Bitcoin was the biggest loser on the week with a -6.27% drop.

FX COT Data Roundup: Australian Dollar Speculator bets go bullish for 1st time in 59 Weeks

Highlighting this week’s currency speculated data was strong rises in speculative bets for the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar and the Euro.

– The Canadian Dollar speculative bets surged the most this week by over 25,000 contracts. This is the second straight week of increases, as well as the seventh time out of the last nine weeks that bets have improved. Overall, the CAD speculator data have been highly negative, with bets being in bearish territory for the past 130 consecutive weeks, dating back to August 1st of 2023. But there has been a sharp turnaround since the end of 2025 as the bearish bets have fallen from a -130,600 on December 9th to this week’s speculative standing at just -16,046 contracts. This is the least bearish position for the Canadian Dollar speculators since February of 2024. In the exchange rate markets, the CAD trades right around the exchange rate of 0.7373 to close out this week. This roughly coincides with the 200-weekly moving average and a close above the 200-weekly moving average would be the first time the Canadian Dollar has been above this measure since August of 2022.

– The Australian Dollar speculative bets jumped by over 21,000 contracts this week and rose for the ninth consecutive week. In these past nine weeks, the speculator bets have increased by a total of 91,322 net contracts. The positive trend in speculator bets has now pushed the Australian Dollar net standing into a bullish position at 7,146 net contracts which marks the first bullish level for the Australian Dollar in the past 59 weeks, dating back to December 10th of 2024. In the exchange rate markets, the Australian Dollar has had two strong consecutive weekly gains, and this week the AUD touched its highest level (vs the USD) since January of 2023. Overall, the Australian Dollar exchange rate versus the USD has now been above its 200-weekly moving average for the past six weeks, which is the first time it has been multiple weeks over the 200-moving average since 2022.

– The Euro currency speculator position saw a rebound by over 20,000 net contracts this week after falling sharply in the previous two weeks. This week’s gain brings the overall net position level back to 132,134 net contracts, which is right around the average of the past 10 weeks. Overall, this is a strong, bullish position for speculators looking for the euro currency to continue to rise higher. Euro bets have now been in a consecutive net bullish position for 47 straight weeks, dating back to March 11th of 2025. And to illustrate the strength of the speculator sentiment, the Euro position has now been over the +100,000 net contract level for 29 out of the last 33 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the Euro briefly touched its highest level since June of 2021 at over the 1.2100 exchange rate. However, the Euro faltered to end the week with a few down days in a row and closed out trading at the 1.1893 exchange rate versus the US Dollar. Since the beginning of 2025, the Euro was now higher by approximately 16.5% and is up by just about 1% this month, ending January 31st.

– The US Dollar Index speculative bets rose this week after a decline last week, and have actually been higher in eight out of the last nine weeks. Overall, the US Dollar Index speculative positions have now been in a negative net standing for 33 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. In the exchange rate markets, the Dollar fell by a modest amount this week. And despite touching its lowest level since 2022 around the 95.36 exchange rate, the Dollar Index rallied at the end of the week to close out around the 96.86 price level. Likely helping the US Dollar strength on Friday was a steep sell-off in the precious metals markets to close out the week while also affecting the USD (and going forward) was the announcement of a nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chairman in Kevin Warsh.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (89 percent) and the Australian Dollar (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (79 percent) and Bitcoin (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (32 percent) and the British Pound (33 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (32.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.8 percent)
EuroFX (79.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (71.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (30.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (41.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (14.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (88.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (81.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (66.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (82.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.8 percent)
Bitcoin (67.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (59.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (14 percent), Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-9 percent), Swiss Franc (-8 percent) and the EuroFX (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (20.1 percent)
EuroFX (-4.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (22.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-8.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (34.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (34.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-29.0 percent)
Bitcoin (12.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	28.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.4	12.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-4,405	5,087	-682
– Gross Longs:	17,945	9,163	2,838
– Gross Shorts:	22,350	4,076	3,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	70.4	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.3	-1.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 132,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	74.1	4.9
– Net Position:	132,134	-181,604	49,470
– Gross Longs:	290,336	499,732	94,116
– Gross Shorts:	158,202	681,336	44,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	19.3	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.9	-3.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	43.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	40.9	11.5
– Net Position:	-16,162	5,464	10,698
– Gross Longs:	87,786	97,216	36,620
– Gross Shorts:	103,948	91,752	25,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	62.3	81.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-17.5	32.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	41.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.0	32.7	11.8
– Net Position:	-33,933	26,709	7,224
– Gross Longs:	104,460	125,157	42,786
– Gross Shorts:	138,393	98,448	35,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	57.7	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	7.9	-1.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	70.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.7	26.4	18.8
– Net Position:	-42,893	42,406	487
– Gross Longs:	9,724	67,805	18,510
– Gross Shorts:	52,617	25,399	18,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	68.6	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	3.3	8.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 25,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	52.2	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	46.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-16,046	13,734	2,312
– Gross Longs:	77,169	118,539	28,551
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	104,805	26,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	16.3	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-34.6	22.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	39.7	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	50.9	7.7
– Net Position:	7,146	-28,309	21,163
– Gross Longs:	109,806	100,026	40,630
– Gross Shorts:	102,660	128,335	19,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.1	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-17.8	1.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	80.8	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.9	23.6	5.6
– Net Position:	-47,745	48,868	-1,123
– Gross Longs:	12,074	69,085	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	59,819	20,217	4,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	89.1	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.4	1.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.7	33.6	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	78.7	1.3
– Net Position:	103,114	-107,349	4,235
– Gross Longs:	149,094	79,827	7,389
– Gross Shorts:	45,980	187,176	3,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	20.1	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-8.5	-2.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	41.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	60.7	0.9
– Net Position:	18,845	-22,726	3,881
– Gross Longs:	56,027	50,435	4,917
– Gross Shorts:	37,182	73,161	1,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.0	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.1	5.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.4	3.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.5	6.0	5.4
– Net Position:	690	-585	-105
– Gross Longs:	18,054	875	1,206
– Gross Shorts:	17,364	1,460	1,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	43.6	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-13.4	1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

01 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium, EAFE & CAD lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 27th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in once again this week as the most bullish extreme standing as the Steel speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 18 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 12,340 net contracts this week with a rise of 669 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range and the six-week trend for the strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position registered 684 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -204 contracts in speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position is third this week in the extreme standings with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level residing at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at plus 11 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 23,890 net contracts this week with a small dip of -679 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score jumped by a total of 35 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -16,046 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 25,739 contracts in the speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Russell-Mini speculator level sits at a 88 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a slight gain by 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 12,327 net contracts this week but showed a drop of -8,236 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at just a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -17 percentage points while the overall speculator position was -15,502 net contracts this week after an increase of 2,372 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -2 percentage points while the speculator position was -167,753 net contracts this week with a gain of 10,595 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The NZD speculator level resides at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week. The overall speculator position was -47,745 net contracts with a rise of 1,865 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the CHF speculator level at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease of -8 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -42,893 net contracts this week with a slight increase of 314 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Finally, the Cotton speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Cotton speculator level stands at a 16 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change on the week while the overall speculator position was -38,967 net contracts this week with a drop by -13,143 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

01 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a rise by 669 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,374 contracts), Copper (-4,185 contracts), Silver (-1,511 contracts), Platinum (-1,202 contracts) and with Palladium (-204 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel is only price gainer for Metals Markets that saw a sell-off this week

The metals markets were overall lower on the week as the metals saw a steep and sharp selloff to close out the week. Steel was the only market that saw a weekly gain as Steel rose by over 5.50% and is now up by 9.30% in the past 30 days, and higher by approximately 40% in the past 90 days.

Copper was lower by -0.25% on the past five days, followed by Gold which saw a shortfall by -2.85%. Palladium dropped by -16.5% and Silver saw a strong decline lower by -18.86% on the week. Platinum was the biggest loser on the week with a sharp -22.45% decline.

Over the past 30 days, the metals markets have all been higher, led by Silver which has been up by 30.59%, while in the past 90 days all of these markets have been at least 27% higher, with Silver up by 88.29%, Platinum up by 45.87%, Palladium higher by 40.39%, and Steel, which has risen by 40.22%. Gold has seen a 28.95% gain in the past 90 days while Copper has risen by 27.29% in that timeframe.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (42 percent) and Platinum (46 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (71.1 percent)
Silver (42.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.0 percent)
Copper (78.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (82.2 percent)
Platinum (45.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (48.8 percent)
Palladium (96.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (97.8 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-23 percent), Silver (-17 percent) and Copper (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-11.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.6 percent)
Silver (-16.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-26.0 percent)
Copper (-15.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.2 percent)
Platinum (-23.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-1.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.0 percent)
Steel (17.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.0 percent)

Individual Markets: (Weekly Tuesday Closes)

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 205,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -39,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 244,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	19.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	70.5	4.1
– Net Position:	205,396	-248,285	42,889
– Gross Longs:	252,100	96,200	62,677
– Gross Shorts:	46,704	344,485	19,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	36.7	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	10.5	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	28.6	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	56.7	9.0
– Net Position:	23,703	-44,056	20,353
– Gross Longs:	43,475	44,788	34,444
– Gross Shorts:	19,772	88,844	14,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	52.1	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	13.9	8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	31.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	54.9	3.3
– Net Position:	48,390	-64,812	16,422
– Gross Longs:	101,400	87,989	25,663
– Gross Shorts:	53,010	152,801	9,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	14.6	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	12.1	12.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	26.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	53.7	3.9
– Net Position:	13,922	-22,026	8,104
– Gross Longs:	36,419	20,654	11,173
– Gross Shorts:	22,497	42,680	3,069
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	49.7	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	16.7	32.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	43.5	6.5
– Net Position:	684	-2,840	2,156
– Gross Longs:	9,436	5,487	3,396
– Gross Shorts:	8,752	8,327	1,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	0.3	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-3.1	27.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	57.6	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	90.7	0.5
– Net Position:	12,340	-12,763	423
– Gross Longs:	14,856	22,286	635
– Gross Shorts:	2,516	35,049	212
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-18.6	32.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

01 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (65,833 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (45,473 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (14,903 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (6,123 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,408 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (1,559 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-70,511 contracts), the Fed Funds (-38,218 contracts), and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,649 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Year Bonds lead Weekly Price Performance

The bond markets this week were led higher by the 5-Year Bonds which saw an edge higher by 0.21%, followed by the 2-Year Bonds, which inched up by 0.18%. The SOFR 1-Month was higher by 0.06%, followed by the SOFR 3-Months, which edged up by 0.04%.

The 10-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged at a -0.01% decline, followed by the Fed Funds which dipped by -0.03%. The US Treasury bond was the biggest loser on the week with a -0.91% shortfall.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (81 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (69 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 10-Year Bonds (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (26.2 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (28 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (44.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (26.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (25.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (58.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (48.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (46.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (80.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (75.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (74.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (41 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bond (13 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55.1 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-22 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-55.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-6.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (3.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (31.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (13.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (6.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (41.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (19.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-21.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-15.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -116,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -38,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	61.7	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	57.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-116,029	94,933	21,096
– Gross Longs:	416,344	1,448,086	51,172
– Gross Shorts:	532,373	1,353,153	30,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	58.4	90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.1	54.2	10.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -594,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -595,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	57.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	52.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-594,042	593,783	259
– Gross Longs:	1,746,386	7,681,337	41,889
– Gross Shorts:	2,340,428	7,087,554	41,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	70.3	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	21.7	0.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 65,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	66.5	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	53.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-208,039	208,128	-89
– Gross Longs:	325,816	1,084,095	158
– Gross Shorts:	533,855	875,967	247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	58.5	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.4	-41.5	2.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,218,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,225,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	74.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	50.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,218,999	1,097,684	121,315
– Gross Longs:	766,638	3,420,919	248,233
– Gross Shorts:	1,985,637	2,323,235	126,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	73.4	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.2	-2.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,091,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,136,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	81.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	53.1	4.4
– Net Position:	-2,091,046	1,946,525	144,521
– Gross Longs:	570,821	5,546,181	446,080
– Gross Shorts:	2,661,867	3,599,656	301,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	71.5	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-10.0	-5.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -726,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -655,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	65.9	6.3
– Net Position:	-726,151	650,764	75,387
– Gross Longs:	668,746	4,400,390	434,438
– Gross Shorts:	1,394,897	3,749,626	359,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	52.2	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	17.8	-23.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -229,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	79.5	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	66.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-229,874	345,568	-115,694
– Gross Longs:	298,101	2,080,438	211,533
– Gross Shorts:	527,975	1,734,870	327,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	66.8	1.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	0.1	-58.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	75.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	82.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-8,167	-119,909	128,076
– Gross Longs:	171,238	1,385,781	252,582
– Gross Shorts:	179,405	1,505,690	124,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	9.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-11.4	1.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -273,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -258,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	71.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-273,471	266,980	6,491
– Gross Longs:	143,923	1,812,928	188,177
– Gross Shorts:	417,394	1,545,948	181,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	44.4	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	16.3	-20.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

01 Feb

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (29,884 contracts) with WTI Crude (18,190 contracts), Gasoline (8,433 contracts), Heating Oil (7,791 contracts) and Brent Oil (402 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index with a drop by -294 contracts on the week.

Energy Markets Price Performance led by Natural Gas

The energy markets this week were all higher in price performance and led by Natural Gas, which rose by approximately 21%. Heating Oil was next up with a 9.14% gain in the past five days, followed by WTI Crude Oil which rose by 7.53%, and then Brent Oil which rose by 7.36%. Gasoline was higher by 4.61% on the week and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 1.83% rise on the week.

All these markets are higher over the past 30 days, with Natural Gas up by approximately 40%, followed by Heating Oil, WTI Crude Oil, and Brent Oil all seeing gains by more than 20% in the past 30 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Heating Oil

On the downside, WTI Crude (18.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Natural Gas (20.9 percent) and Brent Oil (21.6 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (18.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (21.1 percent)
Natural Gas (20.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.0 percent)
Gasoline (74.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (65.3 percent)
Heating Oil (74.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (64.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (78.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (79.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (72.1 percent) and WTI Crude (13.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Brent Oil (-14.9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (13.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (6.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-14.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-24.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-60.9 percent)
Gasoline (3.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-24.1 percent)
Heating Oil (11.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (72.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (74.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	41.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	47.0	2.5
– Net Position:	96,982	-115,048	18,066
– Gross Longs:	295,247	840,875	68,113
– Gross Shorts:	198,265	955,923	50,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	81.6	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-13.0	0.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	37.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	22.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-41,748	40,026	1,722
– Gross Longs:	57,294	100,693	7,911
– Gross Shorts:	99,042	60,667	6,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	80.5	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	16.7	-4.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 29,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	37.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	27.6	2.5
– Net Position:	-163,606	152,767	10,839
– Gross Longs:	216,112	601,095	51,823
– Gross Shorts:	379,718	448,328	40,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	80.3	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	24.8	-3.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.7	3.8
– Net Position:	79,213	-86,834	7,621
– Gross Longs:	118,536	218,244	25,419
– Gross Shorts:	39,323	305,078	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	25.0	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.2	1.7

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	46.0	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	23,835	-41,663	17,828
– Gross Longs:	67,848	175,380	45,533
– Gross Shorts:	44,013	217,043	27,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.9	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-5.1	-8.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	70.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	67.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-6,075	5,405	670
– Gross Longs:	50,840	132,086	705
– Gross Shorts:	56,915	126,681	35
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	20.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.1	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.1	-73.5	3.2

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