COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 57

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (10,346 contracts) with the British Pound (3,700 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,014 contracts), the EuroFX (1,023 contracts), Brazilian Real (651 contracts), Bitcoin (633 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (577 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (338 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,306 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-4,419 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,751 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increased bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

Large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now subtracted a total of -3,631 net contracts from the overall position over the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +10,513 contracts) to the lowest level of the past 93 weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been in bullish territory dating back to June 29th of 2021 with the most bullish point of the cycle taking place on June 21st of 2022 with a high of +45,010 contracts. Since then, speculator positions have slowly eroded and have now been under the +20,000 net contract level for the past 18 weeks in a row.

The US Dollar Index futures price has been on the defensive as well with this week being the first weekly advance over the past eight weeks. The front-month futures price closed this week around 101.50 and is down around 4 percent since February while also being down over 10 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,865	34	10,513	42	-11,955	57	1,442	32
EUR	766,374	80	164,361	82	-213,285	18	48,924	57
GBP	224,536	52	1,302	70	-7,995	29	6,693	71
JPY	177,507	33	-56,869	34	61,645	66	-4,776	44
CHF	40,870	38	-4,720	42	3,386	51	1,334	62
CAD	148,638	29	-46,233	11	42,194	85	4,039	32
AUD	159,708	57	-42,356	46	50,557	57	-8,201	32
NZD	33,377	16	-3,904	43	3,717	55	187	54
MXN	267,698	61	56,171	91	-60,884	10	4,713	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,883	42	13,596	53	-14,778	46	1,182	53
Bitcoin	15,385	76	-489	68	-176	0	665	28

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (81.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (67.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (91.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (94.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (57.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the British Pound (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (11 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-15.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-31.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	9.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	44.0	10.0
– Net Position:	10,513	-11,955	1,442
– Gross Longs:	25,192	3,371	4,940
– Gross Shorts:	14,679	15,326	3,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	56.8	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.8	-17.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.3	5.4
– Net Position:	164,361	-213,285	48,924
– Gross Longs:	242,369	417,586	90,436
– Gross Shorts:	78,008	630,871	41,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.4	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.6	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	60.4	10.7
– Net Position:	1,302	-7,995	6,693
– Gross Longs:	53,834	127,731	30,745
– Gross Shorts:	52,532	135,726	24,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	28.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-28.5	45.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	74.8	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	40.1	18.0
– Net Position:	-56,869	61,645	-4,776
– Gross Longs:	15,661	132,747	27,108
– Gross Shorts:	72,530	71,102	31,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	65.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-13.6	19.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	44.4	37.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	36.1	33.9
– Net Position:	-4,720	3,386	1,334
– Gross Longs:	5,347	18,138	15,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,067	14,752	13,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	50.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-18.9	41.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	64.9	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.5	19.2
– Net Position:	-46,233	42,194	4,039
– Gross Longs:	17,806	96,421	32,592
– Gross Shorts:	64,039	54,227	28,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.4	84.9	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	1.9	31.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	23.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-42,356	50,557	-8,201
– Gross Longs:	44,610	88,628	20,500
– Gross Shorts:	86,966	38,071	28,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	56.6	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	10.9	7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	55.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	44.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-3,904	3,717	187
– Gross Longs:	10,876	18,474	3,757
– Gross Shorts:	14,780	14,757	3,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	55.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	17.7	23.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	45.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	67.7	1.0
– Net Position:	56,171	-60,884	4,713
– Gross Longs:	139,289	120,371	7,352
– Gross Shorts:	83,118	181,255	2,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	9.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	66.2	-61.5	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	18.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	46.5	6.4
– Net Position:	13,596	-14,778	1,182
– Gross Longs:	37,991	9,365	4,527
– Gross Shorts:	24,395	24,143	3,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	22.7	-15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	3.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	4.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-489	-176	665
– Gross Longs:	11,629	517	1,368
– Gross Shorts:	12,118	693	703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	51.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	-1.1	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Apr

Bonds Speculators drop their 10-Year Treasury bets to a 237-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (598,254 contracts) which, as noted last week, is being phased out and replaced by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 3-Months) contracts. The rise in Eurodollar bets was due to traders closing out their bearish positions while the SOFR 3-Months contracts saw a similar rise in bearish contracts this week.

The other markets with gains this week were the Fed Funds (48,557 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,656 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (7,479 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (277 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-466,948 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (-78,073 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-41,044 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,612 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bond Speculators drop bets to 237-week low

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the weakness in the 10-Year Bonds speculator net contracts. Large speculative 10-Year Bond positions fell this week by over -40,000 net contracts and have declined for three straight weeks as well as in four out of the past five weeks. The 10-Year Bond net position has now seen a total of -172,715 contracts added to the existing bearish standing over this past five week period.

The 10-Year positions have now fallen (currently at -680,081 contracts) to the most bearish level since October 2nd of 2018, a span of 237 weeks from when the net position totaled -740,192 contracts.

Overall, the 10-Year speculator net positions have now been in a continuous bearish level for 80 straight weeks, dating back to October 12th of 2021 when the net position flipped from bullish to bearish. Since that time, the net position has steadily increased in bearishness (save for a couple of short pullbacks) as the sentiment for bonds has been decimated due to the US Federal Reserve raising their benchmark interest rate (to fight inflation). Despite the current outlook (Fed Rate Tool) that the Federal Reserve will likely only raise the interest rate one more time in May, speculators have continued to raise their bearish bets for the 10-Year.

The 10-Year front-month futures price, meanwhile, has not dropped back to the lowest levels of this cycle. The price closed at 114.15 this week and is almost 5 percent higher than the lows of October when prices dropped to the 108 levels.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	603,310	0	-51,231	73	47,522	23	3,709	100
FedFunds	1,728,594	66	-118,719	25	130,563	76	-11,844	68
2-Year	2,642,314	78	-574,914	16	520,558	81	54,356	82
Long T-Bond	1,185,802	54	-116,928	47	46,235	27	70,693	100
10-Year	4,393,559	92	-680,081	0	638,740	90	41,341	94
5-Year	4,472,642	99	-754,502	3	716,633	93	37,869	91

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (47 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (46.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (41.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
Eurodollar (72.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (81.6 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) and the Eurodollar (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (18 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (15.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (0.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (20.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-14.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
Eurodollar (23.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 598,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -649,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	60.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	52.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-51,231	47,522	3,709
– Gross Longs:	158,876	365,308	67,086
– Gross Shorts:	210,107	317,786	63,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	22.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-27.2	52.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -626,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -466,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	58.3	0.6
– Net Position:	-626,388	627,991	-1,603
– Gross Longs:	1,301,626	6,103,493	54,601
– Gross Shorts:	1,928,014	5,475,502	56,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.3	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-43.7	-0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 48,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	79.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	72.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-118,719	130,563	-11,844
– Gross Longs:	70,694	1,377,903	40,832
– Gross Shorts:	189,413	1,247,340	52,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	75.7	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-15.2	3.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -574,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -78,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -496,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	62.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-574,914	520,558	54,356
– Gross Longs:	227,652	2,173,300	221,790
– Gross Shorts:	802,566	1,652,742	167,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	80.6	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-11.5	18.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -754,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -761,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	84.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	68.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-754,502	716,633	37,869
– Gross Longs:	270,063	3,775,123	366,773
– Gross Shorts:	1,024,565	3,058,490	328,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	93.3	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	-1.9	31.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -680,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -639,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	63.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-680,081	638,740	41,341
– Gross Longs:	473,072	3,439,022	395,955
– Gross Shorts:	1,153,153	2,800,282	354,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	90.1	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	-4.1	39.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -206,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -196,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	79.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	62.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-206,583	286,593	-80,010
– Gross Longs:	140,107	1,286,225	166,166
– Gross Shorts:	346,690	999,632	246,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.6	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-4.4	20.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -116,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	79.0	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-116,928	46,235	70,693
– Gross Longs:	69,031	936,757	175,995
– Gross Shorts:	185,959	890,522	105,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	27.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-39.8	40.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -399,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	82.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	58.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-399,001	347,521	51,480
– Gross Longs:	78,030	1,176,217	169,143
– Gross Shorts:	477,031	828,696	117,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	76.7	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-23.3	21.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

22 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Sugar bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (14,357 contracts) with Coffee (12,124 contracts), Sugar (9,384 contracts), Cotton (7,749 contracts), Live Cattle (7,456 contracts) and Corn (2,327 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-1,836 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-3,065 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,095 contracts), Wheat (-3,854 contracts) and Cocoa (-558 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculators boost bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued bullish strength in the Sugar speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators have added a total of +58,516 contracts to the net position over the past 4-week period.

The bullish sentiment has now pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in the past 84-weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2021.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level (a 3-year range of speculator positions, on a 0-100 percent scale) has also increased with a score of 86.5 percent this week and up from a score of 83.3 percent last week. Its 6-week trend of strength scores has increased by 10 percent.

The Sugar futures price has also been flying high and touched its highest level since April of 2012 this week. The Sugar front-month futures price has risen for five consecutive weeks and closed at approximately $24.83 on Friday. Sugar futures are now up by over 40 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,913,192	46	244,575	21	-273,247	78	28,672	47
Gold	482,254	28	189,893	61	-216,425	40	26,532	46
Silver	158,371	46	26,595	56	-38,656	47	12,061	33
Copper	206,216	47	8,934	36	-16,280	60	7,346	65
Palladium	11,848	82	-5,637	13	6,151	89	-514	11
Platinum	63,794	53	24,319	72	-28,202	35	3,883	20
Natural Gas	1,330,947	74	-139,986	16	111,893	84	28,093	47
Brent	146,384	10	-43,322	20	39,827	80	3,495	56
Heating Oil	260,459	20	8,865	43	-24,987	65	16,122	54
Soybeans	683,161	24	177,510	59	-149,491	45	-28,019	25
Corn	1,319,551	17	105,636	44	-41,244	66	-64,392	14
Coffee	190,253	5	37,001	65	-38,309	38	1,308	28
Sugar	961,060	62	269,172	86	-326,198	10	57,026	78
Wheat	378,531	54	-70,536	2	65,243	95	5,293	98

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (86 percent), Soybean Meal (76 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (2 percent) and the Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.2 percent)
Sugar (86.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (83.3 percent)
Coffee (65.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (52.9 percent)
Soybeans (58.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (75.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.1 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (84.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.7 percent)
Cotton (12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (97.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (6 percent) and Wheat (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-21 percent), Lean Hogs (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.1 percent)
Sugar (9.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.4 percent)
Coffee (22.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybeans (-1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-22.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.9 percent)
Cotton (-1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	48.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	51.3	13.2
– Net Position:	105,636	-41,244	-64,392
– Gross Longs:	340,625	635,232	109,200
– Gross Shorts:	234,989	676,476	173,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	66.0	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-4.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 269,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	40.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	74.1	5.1
– Net Position:	269,172	-326,198	57,026
– Gross Longs:	340,696	385,588	105,872
– Gross Shorts:	71,524	711,786	48,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	9.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-10.5	10.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	44.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	64.3	3.8
– Net Position:	37,001	-38,309	1,308
– Gross Longs:	55,542	83,982	8,620
– Gross Shorts:	18,541	122,291	7,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	37.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-22.3	6.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 177,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	43.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	65.2	11.0
– Net Position:	177,510	-149,491	-28,019
– Gross Longs:	219,301	296,149	47,114
– Gross Shorts:	41,791	445,640	75,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	45.1	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-2.8	18.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	58.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	57.3	6.1
– Net Position:	-9,451	6,944	2,507
– Gross Longs:	72,093	282,065	31,891
– Gross Shorts:	81,544	275,121	29,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	17.2	6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	36.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	68.7	7.1
– Net Position:	130,269	-146,880	16,611
– Gross Longs:	152,035	165,430	48,978
– Gross Shorts:	21,766	312,310	32,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	25.9	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	25.9	-12.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	25.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	52.6	12.6
– Net Position:	102,072	-92,780	-9,292
– Gross Longs:	155,956	88,017	33,970
– Gross Shorts:	53,884	180,797	43,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.7	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	8.7	-3.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	36.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	26.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-27,157	23,443	3,714
– Gross Longs:	65,671	84,339	29,502
– Gross Shorts:	92,828	60,896	25,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	15.0	19.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	45.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	50.1	6.3
– Net Position:	4,470	-7,229	2,759
– Gross Longs:	55,156	77,142	13,335
– Gross Shorts:	50,686	84,371	10,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	85.5	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.7	15.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	33.3	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	52.7	3.3
– Net Position:	59,355	-64,143	4,788
– Gross Longs:	131,355	110,050	15,617
– Gross Shorts:	72,000	174,193	10,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	1.6	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.6	4.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	37.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	20.7	9.7
– Net Position:	-70,536	65,243	5,293
– Gross Longs:	105,806	143,559	42,074
– Gross Shorts:	176,342	78,316	36,781
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	94.6	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.4	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

22 Apr

Copper Speculator bets go bullish for first time since February

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,237 contracts) with Platinum (10,986 contracts), Silver (2,877 contracts), Palladium (1,436 contracts) and Steel (329 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a drop of -2,852 contracts on the week.

Copper bets go bullish for first time since February

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the renewed bullishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by over +13,000 contracts this week and are higher for the third time in the past five weeks.

Copper speculative bets have now gained by a total of +23,090 contracts over the past five weeks, going from a bearish net position of -14,156 contracts on March 14th to this week’s net position of +8,934 contracts. This week was the first time that net positions crossed over into bullish territory since February and Copper’s sentiment has been helped out by China’s economic reopening which uses the metal for many types of manufacturing and industry.

The Copper front-month futures price dipped this week but has been higher in the three of the past five weeks, continuing an uptrend since bottoming in July of 2022. Copper futures have gained by approximately 25 percent since that recent bottom in July and closed this week just below the $4.00 per pound major price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	482,254	28	189,893	61	-216,425	40	26,532	46
Silver	158,371	46	26,595	56	-38,656	47	12,061	33
Copper	206,216	47	8,934	36	-16,280	60	7,346	65
Palladium	11,848	82	-5,637	13	6,151	89	-514	11
Platinum	63,794	53	24,319	72	-28,202	35	3,883	20

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Gold (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (60.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.9 percent)
Silver (56.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (36.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.6 percent)
Platinum (71.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.4 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (59.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (58.4 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (49 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (40 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (40.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.0 percent)
Silver (49.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.9 percent)
Copper (14.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (44.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (18.5 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.7 percent)
Steel (-1.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 189,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 192,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	25.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	70.5	5.0
– Net Position:	189,893	-216,425	26,532
– Gross Longs:	260,061	123,496	50,647
– Gross Shorts:	70,168	339,921	24,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	40.4	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-37.7	15.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.8	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	57.2	8.4
– Net Position:	26,595	-38,656	12,061
– Gross Longs:	62,968	51,891	25,438
– Gross Shorts:	36,373	90,547	13,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	47.1	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.1	-40.0	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	43.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	51.1	5.6
– Net Position:	8,934	-16,280	7,346
– Gross Longs:	67,262	89,131	18,851
– Gross Shorts:	58,328	105,411	11,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	59.6	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-13.0	-8.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	28.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	72.7	5.0
– Net Position:	24,319	-28,202	3,883
– Gross Longs:	35,028	18,147	7,076
– Gross Shorts:	10,709	46,349	3,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	35.2	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-40.0	2.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	67.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.7	15.5	13.5
– Net Position:	-5,637	6,151	-514
– Gross Longs:	1,912	7,988	1,084
– Gross Shorts:	7,549	1,837	1,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	88.8	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-10.6	-11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	60.3	0.5
– Net Position:	-4,779	4,632	147
– Gross Longs:	3,671	22,409	303
– Gross Shorts:	8,450	17,777	156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.3	40.5	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	1.8	-25.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

22 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (4,803 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,708 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,645 contracts) with the VIX (-14,395 contracts), Russell-Mini (-14,031 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-2,751 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,278,321	21	-344,257	0	359,830	98	-15,573	24
Nikkei 225	11,716	4	-2,556	61	1,555	40	1,001	41
Nasdaq-Mini	245,059	38	2,673	77	6,417	30	-9,090	36
DowJones-Mini	96,061	57	-24,397	11	29,345	93	-4,948	20
VIX	391,654	85	-63,761	69	65,590	28	-1,829	87
Nikkei 225 Yen	42,204	25	6,610	54	14,390	50	-21,000	36

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) and the VIX (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (61 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (69.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (18.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (73.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (36.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (21.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 Yen (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-31 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-30.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (4.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	53.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	36.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-63,761	65,590	-1,829
– Gross Longs:	79,608	210,030	25,841
– Gross Shorts:	143,369	144,440	27,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	27.5	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.0	-5.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -344,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	77.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	61.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-344,257	359,830	-15,573
– Gross Longs:	204,558	1,764,361	241,651
– Gross Shorts:	548,815	1,404,531	257,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.2	18.5	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	66.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	36.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-24,397	29,345	-4,948
– Gross Longs:	18,896	64,305	12,225
– Gross Shorts:	43,293	34,960	17,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	93.4	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	23.8	-0.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	60.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	57.4	18.0
– Net Position:	2,673	6,417	-9,090
– Gross Longs:	58,753	147,191	35,128
– Gross Shorts:	56,080	140,774	44,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	30.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-18.3	27.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -59,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	71.1	5.1
– Net Position:	-59,162	64,474	-5,312
– Gross Longs:	51,876	422,606	20,475
– Gross Shorts:	111,038	358,132	25,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	66.7	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	10.8	-33.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	48.6	33.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	35.4	24.5
– Net Position:	-2,556	1,555	1,001
– Gross Longs:	2,147	5,697	3,872
– Gross Shorts:	4,703	4,142	2,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.3	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.1	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	86.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-16,652	10,731	5,921
– Gross Longs:	29,950	350,488	11,085
– Gross Shorts:	46,602	339,757	5,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	13.5	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

15 Apr

Large Currency Speculators push Euro bullish bets higher to 7-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,945 contracts) with the British Pound (12,395 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,564 contracts), Canadian Dollar (1,930 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,704 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,058 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-171 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-450 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-842 contracts) and Bitcoin (-507 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro bullish bets go higher to 7-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued strength of the speculator’s positioning for the Euro. Large speculative Euro currency positions jumped this week by over +19,000 net contracts, marking the highest one-week gain since September. This is the third time Euro positions have risen in the past four weeks and places the current net position at the best level in the past seven weeks.

The Euro, overall, has now been in a continuous bullish standing for the past 30 weeks, dating back to September 20th when the net position flipped from bearish to bullish. It was also in September when the Euro exchange rate hit a multi-decade low against the US Dollar. The Euro fell below the parity level for the first time since 2002 and bottomed out near the 0.9600 exchange level in late-September. Since that bottom, the Euro has bounced back above parity and has risen by over 14 percent to close this week above the 1.1030 exchange rate.

Helping the Euro gain ground against the US Dollar has been the interest rate differential. Last year, the rate differential was in favor of the US Dollar as the Federal Reserve hiked consistently and sharply while the European Central Bank (ECB) lagged behind. This year, investor’s are forecasting an end to the Fed’s hiking campaign while the ECB seeks to continue raising their interest rate to further combat inflation and triggering further Euro bullish calls.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,076	30	13,264	47	-15,012	52	1,748	36
EUR	759,439	78	163,338	81	-212,065	19	48,727	57
GBP	225,292	52	-2,398	67	-5,341	30	7,739	73
JPY	176,822	32	-57,207	34	56,349	63	858	55
CHF	38,272	29	-6,734	37	9,736	61	-3,002	47
CAD	164,875	40	-56,579	2	58,205	96	-1,626	19
AUD	159,441	57	-37,937	50	47,070	54	-9,133	30
NZD	35,806	23	-4,481	41	2,571	53	1,910	74
MXN	260,053	59	60,477	94	-65,515	6	5,038	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	43,986	31	12,945	52	-14,593	47	1,648	57
Bitcoin	15,977	81	-1,122	57	373	0	749	30

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (94 percent) and the EuroFX (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), Bitcoin (57 percent) and the Brazilian Real (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (34 percent) and the Swiss Franc (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (67.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (56.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (36.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (59.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (42.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (94.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (92.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.6 percent)
Bitcoin (57.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (72 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-24 percent), Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-31.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-34.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (72.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (71.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-24.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	3.0	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	48.4	8.7
– Net Position:	13,264	-15,012	1,748
– Gross Longs:	26,090	1,006	4,626
– Gross Shorts:	12,826	16,018	2,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	51.9	35.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.6	-26.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 163,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	54.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	82.1	5.3
– Net Position:	163,338	-212,065	48,727
– Gross Longs:	244,180	411,456	89,357
– Gross Shorts:	80,842	623,521	40,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	18.8	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.1	-1.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	55.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	58.1	10.4
– Net Position:	-2,398	-5,341	7,739
– Gross Longs:	54,928	125,634	31,221
– Gross Shorts:	57,326	130,975	23,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	30.5	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-28.4	40.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	75.0	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	43.1	16.7
– Net Position:	-57,207	56,349	858
– Gross Longs:	11,933	132,604	30,405
– Gross Shorts:	69,140	76,255	29,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	63.1	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-6.9	25.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	52.0	31.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	26.6	39.3
– Net Position:	-6,734	9,736	-3,002
– Gross Longs:	4,155	19,920	12,050
– Gross Shorts:	10,889	10,184	15,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.0	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	-9.4	25.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	70.7	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	35.4	18.6
– Net Position:	-56,579	58,205	-1,626
– Gross Longs:	16,914	116,537	29,091
– Gross Shorts:	73,493	58,332	30,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	95.8	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	13.4	1.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	54.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.3	24.7	19.3
– Net Position:	-37,937	47,070	-9,133
– Gross Longs:	45,481	86,468	21,588
– Gross Shorts:	83,418	39,398	30,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	54.0	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	13.8	-11.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	49.6	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	42.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,481	2,571	1,910
– Gross Longs:	13,097	17,758	4,811
– Gross Shorts:	17,578	15,187	2,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	52.5	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.4	20.6	32.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	44.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	69.6	1.0
– Net Position:	60,477	-65,515	5,038
– Gross Longs:	136,355	115,499	7,520
– Gross Shorts:	75,878	181,014	2,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	6.5	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.5	-68.3	-0.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	20.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	53.4	5.6
– Net Position:	12,945	-14,593	1,648
– Gross Longs:	30,795	8,916	4,132
– Gross Shorts:	17,850	23,509	2,484
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.7	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.2	-0.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	5.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.5	3.0	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,122	373	749
– Gross Longs:	12,216	857	1,542
– Gross Shorts:	13,338	484	793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	75.7	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	3.9	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Apr

COT Bonds Speculators raise 3-Month SOFR bets as Eurodollars are phased out

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (41,837 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (19,258 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (8,480 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (5,214 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-20,036 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-18,006 contracts), the Eurodollar (-2,166 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-2,938 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-10,494 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

SOFR contracts to replace Eurodollar contracts this week

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is an important week for the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Months) or SOFR contracts. The SOFR contracts are relatively new on the scene as these futures only started in 2020. The SOFR contracts are in the process of taking the place of the Eurodollar contracts as the Eurodollars are being phased out and this week marks the last week for traders to use the Eurodollars contracts. Going forward, the Eurodollars contracts will be converted into 3-Month SOFRs and we will cease to have a Eurodollars futures contract.

The Eurodollars were the most traded and the highest open interest contract in the futures market for many years because it was a way for investors to express a view on short-term interest rates based on the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). However, LIBOR was fraught with controversy as it was a survey based on banks and was caught up in a manipulation scandal in 2012. In that scandal, bank participants colluded to move the LIBOR rate higher or lower and use that to their advantage.

The SOFR has taken precedence because it is calculated using actually market data (provided by the NY Fed Bank) instead of survey data. The SOFR data is from the US Dollar Treasury overnight repurchase agreement (REPO) transactions which are essentially loans between banks that are backed and collateralized by Treasury securities.

The SOFR contracts now have the highest open interest levels with these contracts exceeding over 10 million in open interest in March. To read more on the SOFRs and how to imply the SOFR interest rate from the futures contracts, see here.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	4,630,651	0	-649,485	57	801,073	41	-151,588	71
FedFunds	1,624,730	57	-167,276	19	175,875	81	-8,599	74
2-Year	2,531,969	68	-496,841	25	460,413	72	36,428	73
Long T-Bond	1,179,823	52	-132,584	41	69,508	35	63,076	95
10-Year	4,275,293	84	-639,037	0	622,661	88	16,376	87
5-Year	4,446,566	97	-761,981	2	722,702	94	39,279	92

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (82 percent) and the Eurodollar (57 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (41 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (2 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (21.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (41.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (42.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Eurodollar (57.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (81.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (78.2 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (54 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Fed Funds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (20.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-12.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-20.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-14.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (9.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
Eurodollar (9.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -649,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -647,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	67.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	50.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-649,485	801,073	-151,588
– Gross Longs:	288,650	3,134,754	207,022
– Gross Shorts:	938,135	2,333,681	358,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	40.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.4	19.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -159,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	57.7	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	56.0	0.5
– Net Position:	-159,440	159,269	171
– Gross Longs:	1,920,637	5,513,375	48,102
– Gross Shorts:	2,080,077	5,354,106	47,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	18.3	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-55.0	4.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -167,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.3	82.1	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	71.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-167,276	175,875	-8,599
– Gross Longs:	37,100	1,334,569	38,360
– Gross Shorts:	204,376	1,158,694	46,959
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	81.2	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-1.3	14.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -496,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -502,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	82.3	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	64.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-496,841	460,413	36,428
– Gross Longs:	221,139	2,084,824	205,672
– Gross Shorts:	717,980	1,624,411	169,244
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	72.0	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.4	-25.7	9.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -761,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -781,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	67.2	7.3
– Net Position:	-761,981	722,702	39,279
– Gross Longs:	312,076	3,708,958	365,278
– Gross Shorts:	1,074,057	2,986,256	325,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	94.0	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	1.9	25.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -639,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -621,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	79.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	65.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-639,037	622,661	16,376
– Gross Longs:	418,080	3,405,619	371,253
– Gross Shorts:	1,057,117	2,782,958	354,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	88.4	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	-11.6	28.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -196,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	81.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	63.4	14.9
– Net Position:	-196,971	280,480	-83,509
– Gross Longs:	126,517	1,290,288	153,890
– Gross Shorts:	323,488	1,009,808	237,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	94.3	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.9	10.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -132,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	79.0	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	73.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-132,584	69,508	63,076
– Gross Longs:	69,855	932,461	173,415
– Gross Shorts:	202,439	862,953	110,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	35.4	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-31.3	32.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -399,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -407,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	83.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	58.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-399,278	348,669	50,609
– Gross Longs:	78,023	1,172,982	159,503
– Gross Shorts:	477,301	824,313	108,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.0	77.2	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-21.8	21.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

15 Apr

COT Metals Speculators raise their Silver bets for 5th week to a 10-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a rise of 2,435 contracts this week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-2,471 contracts) with Platinum (-2,090 contracts), Copper (-1,349 contracts), Steel (-970 contracts) and Palladium (-427 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Silver speculator bets rise for 5th week to 10-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Silver speculative positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures climbed this week for a fifth straight week. Silver spec bets have now jumped by a total of +31,500 contracts over the past five weeks. This recent speculator sentiment bump has taken the Silver position from a total of -1,219 contracts on March 14th to a total of +23,718 contracts this week, leveling at the most bullish standing for Silver in ten weeks.

The Silver futures price has continued to enjoy a bullish run and has now increased for five consecutive weeks. The futures price has risen by over 20 percent in these past five weeks and touched the highest level since last April before closing this week at almost $25.50.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	476,567	25	192,745	62	-216,548	40	23,803	40
Silver	142,699	29	23,718	52	-36,255	50	12,537	36
Copper	209,501	50	-4,303	25	-1,217	72	5,520	53
Palladium	12,290	88	-7,073	0	7,491	100	-418	17
Platinum	60,115	41	13,333	46	-18,511	55	5,178	37

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (0.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.0 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.6 percent)
Copper (24.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (25.8 percent)
Platinum (46.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.2 percent)
Palladium (0.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.2 percent)
Steel (58.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.2 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (37 percent) and Silver (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (18.5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-4 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (37.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (38.8 percent)
Silver (33.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.5 percent)
Platinum (18.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (28.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.5 percent)
Steel (-4.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 192,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.6	25.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	70.6	5.3
– Net Position:	192,745	-216,548	23,803
– Gross Longs:	260,165	119,710	49,102
– Gross Shorts:	67,420	336,258	25,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	40.3	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.0	-34.4	12.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	33.4	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	58.8	8.9
– Net Position:	23,718	-36,255	12,537
– Gross Longs:	55,583	47,629	25,218
– Gross Shorts:	31,865	83,884	12,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	50.0	36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.9	-28.0	-3.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	43.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	44.2	6.3
– Net Position:	-4,303	-1,217	5,520
– Gross Longs:	56,063	91,399	18,793
– Gross Shorts:	60,366	92,616	13,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	72.4	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.0	-3.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	34.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	65.3	4.0
– Net Position:	13,333	-18,511	5,178
– Gross Longs:	29,570	20,768	7,569
– Gross Shorts:	16,237	39,279	2,391
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	55.2	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-17.9	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	71.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.5	10.8	14.1
– Net Position:	-7,073	7,491	-418
– Gross Longs:	1,463	8,814	1,319
– Gross Shorts:	8,536	1,323	1,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	6.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	100.0	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	8.2	4.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	76.4	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	59.1	0.6
– Net Position:	-5,108	4,951	157
– Gross Longs:	3,428	21,857	317
– Gross Shorts:	8,536	16,906	160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	41.4	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.4	-10.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

15 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost their Coffee bets to best level in 26-Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (17,619 contracts) with Sugar (13,137 contracts), Coffee (12,229 contracts), Live Cattle (8,442 contracts), Cotton (3,464 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,969 contracts) and Soybean Meal (2,810 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-5,883 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-4,303 contracts), Soybeans (-4,999 contracts) and Cocoa (-332 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee bets rebound to best level in 26-Weeks

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rebound in the Coffee speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Coffee jumped this week by over +12,000 contracts after having fallen in the previous two weeks. Coffee’s speculative positioning is showing positive trends again with the net position back in bullish territory for each of the past ten weeks. This follows a streak of thirteen straight weeks of bearish Coffee positions that took place from November 8th to January 31st.

Coffee speculative bets had experienced a strong few years with positions rising strongly in the second half of 2020 and maintaining that momentum through 2021 and most of 2022. The end of 2022 saw the shine fall off the Coffee positions and the Coffee price as well with the Coffee futures price dropping over 35 percent from September to January.

The Coffee price hit a recent bottom in January and has been back on a bullish trend with prices gaining by more than 30 percent since that bottom compared to this week’s close. This week saw the Coffee futures price rise for a second straight week and with a 2-week total gain of over +10 percent.

The speculator’s net position, meanwhile, is now at the most bullish level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to October 11th of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,875,140	43	235,632	19	-255,411	82	19,779	32
Gold	476,567	25	192,745	62	-216,548	40	23,803	40
Silver	142,699	29	23,718	52	-36,255	50	12,537	36
Copper	209,501	50	-4,303	25	-1,217	72	5,520	53
Palladium	12,290	88	-7,073	0	7,491	100	-418	17
Platinum	60,115	41	13,333	46	-18,511	55	5,178	37
Natural Gas	1,355,672	79	-140,895	16	111,181	84	29,714	51
Brent	146,905	11	-42,610	22	37,056	74	5,554	84
Heating Oil	268,008	23	9,694	44	-30,770	53	21,076	71
Soybeans	716,906	31	179,346	60	-148,511	45	-30,835	20
Corn	1,338,484	19	103,309	43	-45,283	65	-58,026	19
Coffee	192,988	7	24,877	53	-25,241	51	364	17
Sugar	992,086	69	259,788	83	-317,308	12	57,520	79
Wheat	391,899	61	-66,682	5	62,318	92	4,364	94

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent), Live Cattle (84 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week are all in Extreme-Bullish levels. Soybean Meal (68 percent) and Soybeans (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and the Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (41.0 percent)
Sugar (83.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (52.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybeans (59.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (61.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.7 percent)
Live Cattle (84.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (74.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.9 percent)
Cotton (6.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.6 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.7 percent)
Wheat (5.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (10.4 percent)

Sugar & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (12 percent) and Coffee (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (8 percent) and Cocoa (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-25.2 percent)
Sugar (12.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.6 percent)
Coffee (8.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.3 percent)
Soybeans (8.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-30.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-14.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-19.6 percent)
Cotton (-3.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (0.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 103,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	47.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	51.3	13.0
– Net Position:	103,309	-45,283	-58,026
– Gross Longs:	336,195	640,896	115,312
– Gross Shorts:	232,886	686,179	173,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.2	65.4	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 259,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	39.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	70.9	5.1
– Net Position:	259,788	-317,308	57,520
– Gross Longs:	341,373	386,564	108,381
– Gross Shorts:	81,585	703,872	50,861
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	12.1	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-15.3	21.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	46.3	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	59.4	4.2
– Net Position:	24,877	-25,241	364
– Gross Longs:	45,503	89,339	8,467
– Gross Shorts:	20,626	114,580	8,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	50.8	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.4	-12.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 179,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 184,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	44.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.9	64.8	10.8
– Net Position:	179,346	-148,511	-30,835
– Gross Longs:	214,620	316,234	46,749
– Gross Shorts:	35,274	464,745	77,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	45.4	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-10.6	16.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,325 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	58.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	57.0	6.7
– Net Position:	-6,356	8,180	-1,824
– Gross Longs:	71,655	284,392	30,877
– Gross Shorts:	78,011	276,212	32,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	98.1	1.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.5	24.9	-33.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	38.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	68.9	6.9
– Net Position:	115,912	-134,052	18,140
– Gross Longs:	136,621	166,246	48,190
– Gross Shorts:	20,709	300,298	30,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	32.6	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	19.7	29.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 94,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	26.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	52.6	12.5
– Net Position:	94,616	-87,749	-6,867
– Gross Longs:	144,362	88,301	35,140
– Gross Shorts:	49,746	176,050	42,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	14.8	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	13.6	8.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,789 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	36.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	26.7	11.2
– Net Position:	-24,092	21,623	2,469
– Gross Longs:	65,097	82,733	27,981
– Gross Shorts:	89,189	61,110	25,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	15.3	22.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	48.8	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	47.1	6.6
– Net Position:	-3,279	3,057	222
– Gross Longs:	51,255	90,941	12,514
– Gross Shorts:	54,534	87,884	12,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.4	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	-4.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	34.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	53.5	3.3
– Net Position:	59,913	-65,075	5,162
– Gross Longs:	126,337	120,838	16,466
– Gross Shorts:	66,424	185,913	11,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	0.4	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.7	7.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	34.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	18.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-66,682	62,318	4,364
– Gross Longs:	109,545	134,826	42,293
– Gross Shorts:	176,227	72,508	37,929
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	91.8	94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-3.6	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

15 Apr

Stock Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (16,255 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (13,847 contracts), Russell-Mini (11,825 contracts), VIX (7,720 contracts), DowJones-Mini (1,979 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (1,165 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,874 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (-627 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,248,469	19	-307,612	2	342,012	96	-34,400	20
Nikkei 225	11,035	2	-2,114	64	1,673	40	441	34
Nasdaq-Mini	237,470	34	-2,130	74	7,920	31	-5,790	43
DowJones-Mini	90,263	48	-21,646	19	28,085	91	-6,439	12
VIX	360,853	71	-49,366	79	49,252	16	114	92
Nikkei 225 Yen	39,569	19	5,968	52	14,549	50	-20,517	37

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (79 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (74 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (64 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (2 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (18.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (44.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (37.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (57.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (21.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.1 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The S&P500-Mini (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-15 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-15.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-19.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (12.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-0.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-7.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	52.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	38.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-49,366	49,252	114
– Gross Longs:	76,020	188,606	25,538
– Gross Shorts:	125,386	139,354	25,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	16.4	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.5	10.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -307,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	77.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	62.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-307,612	342,012	-34,400
– Gross Longs:	207,007	1,749,879	227,253
– Gross Shorts:	514,619	1,407,867	261,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	95.7	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	23.8	-7.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	67.3	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	36.2	19.8
– Net Position:	-21,646	28,085	-6,439
– Gross Longs:	17,410	60,765	11,475
– Gross Shorts:	39,056	32,680	17,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	90.8	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	21.7	-24.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	61.1	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	57.7	18.0
– Net Position:	-2,130	7,920	-5,790
– Gross Longs:	51,607	144,976	36,868
– Gross Shorts:	53,737	137,056	42,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	31.4	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-21.0	23.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	83.2	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	73.7	4.7
– Net Position:	-45,131	46,801	-1,670
– Gross Longs:	51,942	408,764	21,546
– Gross Shorts:	97,073	361,963	23,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	56.8	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	3.0	-9.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	49.7	31.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	34.5	27.1
– Net Position:	-2,114	1,673	441
– Gross Longs:	2,121	5,482	3,432
– Gross Shorts:	4,235	3,809	2,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	40.4	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.3	6.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	89.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	86.2	1.1
– Net Position:	-18,360	11,211	7,149
– Gross Longs:	30,279	352,149	11,449
– Gross Shorts:	48,639	340,938	4,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	72.6	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	5.3	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.