COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 54

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (92,082 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,769 contracts), VIX (6,365 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (313 contracts) and Russell-Mini (3,187 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were DowJones-Mini (-279 contracts) and Nikkei 225 (-421 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,223,815	23	-239,331	29	248,779	74	-9,448	41
Nikkei 225	16,787	18	-7,029	23	5,392	69	1,637	49
Nasdaq-Mini	247,591	35	15,993	84	-8,872	21	-7,121	40
DowJones-Mini	87,911	43	-15,859	29	16,453	67	-594	41
VIX	455,331	100	-61,056	75	60,933	20	123	96
Nikkei 225 Yen	55,296	45	12,407	72	13,251	47	-25,658	24

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (84 percent) and the VIX (75 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (23 percent) and MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (74.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (15.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (29.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (84.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (83.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (26.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (23.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (26.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.2 percent)

S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (20 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (12 percent), the Nikkei 225 Yen (9 percent) and the VIX (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (20.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-28.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-23.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-15.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -61,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	51.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	38.3	6.8
– Net Position:	-61,056	60,933	123
– Gross Longs:	101,721	235,290	31,096
– Gross Shorts:	162,777	174,357	30,973
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	19.6	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-7.2	16.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 92,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -331,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	77.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	66.0	11.4
– Net Position:	-239,331	248,779	-9,448
– Gross Longs:	210,230	1,716,868	243,154
– Gross Shorts:	449,561	1,468,089	252,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	74.2	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.4	-20.6	4.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	62.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	43.6	15.1
– Net Position:	-15,859	16,453	-594
– Gross Longs:	19,335	54,798	12,713
– Gross Shorts:	35,194	38,345	13,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	67.2	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-17.1	20.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	53.3	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	56.9	18.8
– Net Position:	15,993	-8,872	-7,121
– Gross Longs:	71,956	132,040	39,361
– Gross Shorts:	55,963	140,912	46,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	21.0	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	1.3	6.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -72,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	84.6	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	71.2	4.2
– Net Position:	-72,709	70,994	1,715
– Gross Longs:	51,027	449,033	24,098
– Gross Shorts:	123,736	378,039	22,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	70.3	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	2.2	28.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	61.1	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	29.0	16.0
– Net Position:	-7,029	5,392	1,637
– Gross Longs:	2,214	10,254	4,319
– Gross Shorts:	9,243	4,862	2,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	68.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	23.4	6.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	90.7	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	88.5	1.2
– Net Position:	-15,922	9,145	6,777
– Gross Longs:	23,336	372,953	11,738
– Gross Shorts:	39,258	363,808	4,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	70.1	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	8.4	-17.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 Jun

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (3,665 contracts) with Bitcoin (582 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,342 contracts), Japanese Yen (-8,624 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-8,415 contracts), EuroFX (-7,304 contracts), Brazilian Real (-5,094 contracts), Swiss Franc (-879 contracts), British Pound (-751 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-573 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-549 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the declining sentiment of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency.

Large speculative Euro positions dropped by over -7,000 contracts this week and fell for a third consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased by a total of -28,668 contracts over these past three weeks to bring the bullish position to a total of +158,421 contracts, a nine week low. Previously, speculator bets had risen for six straight weeks from April 11th to May 16th and pushed the overall bullish speculative level to the highest standing in the past 137-weeks, dating back to late-September of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) hit over a 12-month high in May above the 1.1000 level and speculators were sharply positioning themselves for it to go higher. This was helped out this year by the interest rate hiking schedule of European Central Bank (ECB) which was raising their rates while the US Federal Reserve was being seen as nearing the end of its own rate hiking campaign.

However, this one-way dynamic has become more cloudy with some recent data-points.

The Eurozone has fallen into a technical recession (2 quarters of negative growth), inflation has started to trend downwards (although still above 6 percent) and there is an expectation there will be possibly only 2 more ECB rate hikes before a pause. Meanwhile, rates traders are expecting (at this moment) the Fed to raise the US interest rate by 25 basis points once again at the July 26th meeting.

The Euro’s market strength recently hit a roadblock at the May high and the psychological level of 1.1000. The Euro has now tumbled in four out of the past five weeks and dropped all the way down to the 1.0635 exchange by the end of May. This week, the Euro rebounded modestly and the weekly closing price was near 1.0750. If speculators continue to further shed Euro positions, it is possible we could see a short-squeeze bring the currency lower still and challenge the 1.0500 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,930	32	12,219	45	-15,163	52	2,944	49
EUR	781,967	84	158,421	79	-203,916	22	45,495	52
GBP	242,117	63	12,484	80	-14,124	24	1,640	61
JPY	245,332	76	-104,817	4	113,736	91	-8,919	35
CHF	44,087	50	-1,314	51	7,048	57	-5,734	38
CAD	168,025	42	-38,329	19	38,456	82	-127	23
AUD	209,680	98	-56,468	32	67,496	69	-11,028	26
NZD	41,665	39	-703	52	2,856	53	-2,153	24
MXN	235,994	50	81,670	100	-87,777	0	6,107	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	46,686	35	26,181	69	-25,721	33	-460	40
Bitcoin	13,026	56	769	90	-1,196	0	427	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent), Bitcoin (90 percent) and the British Pound (80 percent) led the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (32 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.2 percent)
EuroFX (79.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (82.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (80.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.6 percent)
Bitcoin (90.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and the Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (12 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (7 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the EuroFX (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.8 percent)
EuroFX (-4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (11.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (18.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.1	3.8	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	48.5	8.1
– Net Position:	12,219	-15,163	2,944
– Gross Longs:	24,791	1,280	5,698
– Gross Shorts:	12,572	16,443	2,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	51.7	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-3.9	10.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	79.7	6.4
– Net Position:	158,421	-203,916	45,495
– Gross Longs:	236,060	419,532	95,766
– Gross Shorts:	77,639	623,448	50,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	21.6	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	6.9	-15.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	53.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	58.9	11.4
– Net Position:	12,484	-14,124	1,640
– Gross Longs:	65,063	128,441	29,200
– Gross Shorts:	52,579	142,565	27,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	24.5	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-2.4	-6.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	71.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.8	16.2
– Net Position:	-104,817	113,736	-8,919
– Gross Longs:	34,151	174,461	30,731
– Gross Shorts:	138,968	60,725	39,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	91.1	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	20.1	-10.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	47.0	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	31.0	38.7
– Net Position:	-1,314	7,048	-5,734
– Gross Longs:	11,579	20,726	11,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,893	13,678	17,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	56.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	7.2	-22.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	63.1	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	40.2	18.7
– Net Position:	-38,329	38,456	-127
– Gross Longs:	21,709	106,003	31,338
– Gross Shorts:	60,038	67,547	31,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	82.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.1	4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	24.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-56,468	67,496	-11,028
– Gross Longs:	54,501	119,775	19,365
– Gross Shorts:	110,969	52,279	30,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	69.2	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	10.3	7.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	45.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	38.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-703	2,856	-2,153
– Gross Longs:	16,109	18,954	3,502
– Gross Shorts:	16,812	16,098	5,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	53.2	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-2.5	-17.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	41.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	78.8	1.3
– Net Position:	81,670	-87,777	6,107
– Gross Longs:	123,447	98,261	9,230
– Gross Shorts:	41,777	186,038	3,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-19.1	18.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,275 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	21.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.4	11.2
– Net Position:	26,181	-25,721	-460
– Gross Longs:	31,930	9,947	4,791
– Gross Shorts:	5,749	35,668	5,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	33.0	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.5	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	1.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.7	10.6	5.7
– Net Position:	769	-1,196	427
– Gross Longs:	10,106	187	1,172
– Gross Shorts:	9,337	1,383	745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	11.2	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-37.8	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, SOFR, Japanese Yen lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 2.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,487 net contracts this week with a change of 181 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 18.9 this week. The speculator position registered 81,670 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 3,665 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 11.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 72,234 net contracts this week with a change of 6,661 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 61.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 40,305 net contracts this week with a change of -2,917 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 96.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.0 this week.

The speculator position was 105,621 net contracts this week with a change of 4,243 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,027,059 net contracts this week with a change of -43,222 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.1 this week. The speculator position was -959,901 net contracts this week with a change of 9,962 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 2.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -33,503 net contracts this week with a change of 2,611 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -90,684 net contracts this week with a change of 3,312 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 4.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.2 this week. The speculator position was -104,817 net contracts this week with a change of -8,624 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Opinions

11 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (96,720 contracts) with the Eurodollar (34,765 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (9,962 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-66,703 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-31,783 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-43,222 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-23,013 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7,099 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (-2,917 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	527,383	0	-3,045	74	13,104	22	-10,059	97
FedFunds	1,482,369	45	-246,858	9	255,064	91	-8,206	75
2-Year	3,351,277	100	-959,901	1	864,871	98	95,030	100
Long T-Bond	1,249,240	70	-82,926	58	41,862	26	41,064	78
10-Year	4,578,932	82	-753,701	9	693,419	93	60,282	87
5-Year	4,850,014	87	-1,027,059	0	1,016,651	100	10,408	84

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Eurodollar (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (9 percent), the Fed Funds (9 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (21.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (65.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (15.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.7 percent)
Eurodollar (74.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (97.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (98.0 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (61 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-39 percent), the Fed Funds (-20 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-19.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-39.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-37.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-20.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.4 percent)
Eurodollar (1.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (61.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	63.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-3,045	13,104	-10,059
– Gross Longs:	141,397	335,311	50,675
– Gross Shorts:	144,442	322,207	60,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	22.0	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	61.3	0.6
– Net Position:	40,305	-24,496	-15,809
– Gross Longs:	1,581,630	6,023,024	41,854
– Gross Shorts:	1,541,325	6,047,520	57,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	3.4	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.3	-60.5	-5.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -246,858 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -66,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	78.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	61.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-246,858	255,064	-8,206
– Gross Longs:	52,857	1,167,235	34,401
– Gross Shorts:	299,715	912,171	42,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	90.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.1	8.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -959,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -969,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	80.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	55.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-959,901	864,871	95,030
– Gross Longs:	370,970	2,712,847	240,315
– Gross Shorts:	1,330,871	1,847,976	145,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	97.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.1	40.6	16.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,027,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -983,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.2	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-1,027,059	1,016,651	10,408
– Gross Longs:	326,795	4,085,049	359,182
– Gross Shorts:	1,353,854	3,068,398	348,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	16.4	-5.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -753,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 96,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -850,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	80.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-753,701	693,419	60,282
– Gross Longs:	410,777	3,675,457	397,950
– Gross Shorts:	1,164,478	2,982,038	337,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	93.1	86.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	1.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -142,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -31,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	76.8	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	63.7	15.5
– Net Position:	-142,577	218,066	-75,489
– Gross Longs:	174,272	1,275,948	181,822
– Gross Shorts:	316,849	1,057,882	257,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	80.9	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-11.0	1.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	75.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	72.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-82,926	41,862	41,064
– Gross Longs:	102,025	943,943	175,105
– Gross Shorts:	184,951	902,081	134,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	25.5	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	5.4	-21.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -406,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	82.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	58.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-406,999	356,439	50,560
– Gross Longs:	85,791	1,205,231	166,525
– Gross Shorts:	492,790	848,792	115,965
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	79.2	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.7	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

11 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (9,746 contracts) with Gold (6,325 contracts), Steel (2,593 contracts), Platinum (1,207 contracts) and Silver (351 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Palladium with a total change of -552 contracts on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	436,301	7	175,641	54	-198,187	47	22,546	36
Silver	137,871	23	21,475	49	-34,065	53	12,590	36
Copper	229,756	66	-25,956	8	24,610	92	1,346	27
Palladium	11,541	76	-6,602	5	7,192	97	-590	6
Platinum	67,537	65	24,613	72	-28,747	34	4,134	24

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) and Copper (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (48.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.4 percent)
Copper (8.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (72.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (69.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)
Steel (65.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Steel tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (-12 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-13 percent) and Platinum (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.1 percent)
Silver (-13.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.8 percent)
Copper (-7.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-2.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.8 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 175,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	26.7	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	72.1	5.7
– Net Position:	175,641	-198,187	22,546
– Gross Longs:	237,467	116,363	47,595
– Gross Shorts:	61,826	314,550	25,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	47.4	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	5.3	-10.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	31.0	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	55.7	9.6
– Net Position:	21,475	-34,065	12,590
– Gross Longs:	53,149	42,785	25,871
– Gross Shorts:	31,674	76,850	13,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	52.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	9.0	9.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	46.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	35.4	6.5
– Net Position:	-25,956	24,610	1,346
– Gross Longs:	56,660	105,982	16,315
– Gross Shorts:	82,616	81,372	14,969
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	92.0	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	13.5	-46.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,613 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	31.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	74.2	4.5
– Net Position:	24,613	-28,747	4,134
– Gross Longs:	35,201	21,339	7,140
– Gross Shorts:	10,588	50,086	3,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	34.0	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-7.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	69.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.7	6.9	16.4
– Net Position:	-6,602	7,192	-590
– Gross Longs:	2,023	7,992	1,299
– Gross Shorts:	8,625	800	1,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	10.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	97.5	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	7.4	-9.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.6	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	71.5	0.9
– Net Position:	-2,706	2,593	113
– Gross Longs:	2,251	20,912	353
– Gross Shorts:	4,957	18,319	240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	34.6	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-8.5	6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

11 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (24,054 contracts) with Soybeans (9,341 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,784 contracts), Cocoa (6,661 contracts), Corn (5,636 contracts), Coffee (4,711 contracts), Live Cattle (4,243 contracts), Cotton (1,857 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,611 contracts) and Wheat (3,312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-16,519 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,951,628	49	172,442	4	-198,377	95	25,935	31
Gold	436,301	7	175,641	54	-198,187	47	22,546	36
Silver	137,871	23	21,475	49	-34,065	53	12,590	36
Copper	229,756	66	-25,956	8	24,610	92	1,346	27
Palladium	11,541	76	-6,602	5	7,192	97	-590	6
Platinum	67,537	65	24,613	72	-28,747	34	4,134	24
Natural Gas	1,389,864	85	-126,852	21	92,364	76	34,488	62
Brent	135,100	8	-42,455	23	41,681	84	774	20
Heating Oil	307,550	39	21,277	66	-28,835	61	7,558	25
Soybeans	669,123	21	39,155	5	-16,089	91	-23,066	36
Corn	1,322,137	17	-14,771	27	66,120	82	-51,349	26
Coffee	204,447	16	28,331	56	-28,769	47	438	18
Sugar	1,021,535	75	233,868	74	-278,395	25	44,527	61
Wheat	405,201	69	-90,684	2	85,364	97	5,320	91

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (97 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (74 percent), Soybean Meal (62 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (2 percent), Wheat (2 percent), Soybeans (5 percent) and the Soybean Oil (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.2 percent)
Sugar (73.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.4 percent)
Coffee (56.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.6 percent)
Soybeans (4.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.0 percent)
Live Cattle (96.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (91.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (21.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (92.5 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Cotton & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (16 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-16 percent), Coffee (-8 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.4 percent)
Sugar (-16.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.7 percent)
Coffee (-8.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.7 percent)
Soybeans (-25.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-58.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (4.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.4 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.6 percent)
Cocoa (11.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.0 percent)
Wheat (-5.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	50.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	45.8	12.8
– Net Position:	-14,771	66,120	-51,349
– Gross Longs:	268,763	672,074	117,595
– Gross Shorts:	283,534	605,954	168,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	81.7	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.5	6.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 233,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	42.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	70.0	4.7
– Net Position:	233,868	-278,395	44,527
– Gross Longs:	316,809	436,281	92,941
– Gross Shorts:	82,941	714,676	48,414
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.7	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	17.4	-15.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	44.4	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	58.4	3.4
– Net Position:	28,331	-28,769	438
– Gross Longs:	49,241	90,686	7,356
– Gross Shorts:	20,910	119,455	6,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	47.3	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	8.9	-8.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	52.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	55.0	10.4
– Net Position:	39,155	-16,089	-23,066
– Gross Longs:	136,718	351,669	46,263
– Gross Shorts:	97,563	367,758	69,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	91.3	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	20.9	8.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	58.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	56.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-7,194	10,834	-3,640
– Gross Longs:	84,021	312,922	30,043
– Gross Shorts:	91,215	302,088	33,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	88.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-5.0	-5.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	37.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	61.3	6.8
– Net Position:	103,317	-117,624	14,307
– Gross Longs:	131,273	185,802	47,980
– Gross Shorts:	27,956	303,426	33,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.2	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.8	-5.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	26.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	56.3	11.9
– Net Position:	105,621	-97,322	-8,299
– Gross Longs:	150,516	89,224	31,127
– Gross Shorts:	44,895	186,546	39,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	3.2	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.9	7.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	39.1	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	25.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-33,503	31,957	1,546
– Gross Longs:	55,832	88,831	21,583
– Gross Shorts:	89,335	56,874	20,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	98.9	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	7.4	-8.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	48.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	59.3	4.8
– Net Position:	16,469	-21,021	4,552
– Gross Longs:	60,225	94,138	13,865
– Gross Shorts:	43,756	115,159	9,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	76.1	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-18.5	33.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	27.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	50.5	3.5
– Net Position:	72,234	-76,549	4,315
– Gross Longs:	147,856	92,990	15,922
– Gross Shorts:	75,622	169,539	11,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.6	-2.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -90,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	39.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	18.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-90,684	85,364	5,320
– Gross Longs:	106,834	158,400	40,861
– Gross Shorts:	197,518	73,036	35,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	97.2	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.0	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

04 Jun

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (18,612 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (4,955 contracts), British Pound (1,646 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,528 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (233 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (468 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-15,533 contracts) with the EuroFX (-8,011 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,062 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,417 contracts) and Bitcoin (-706 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued gains for the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators raised their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the fifth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +129,731 contracts since the beginning of 2023 (a total of 22 weeks), going from a total of -56,376 contracts on January 3rd to a total of +78,005 contracts this week. This rise in the speculator sentiment has pushed the current net position to the highest level in the past 168 weeks, dating all the way back to the height of the pandemic on March 10th of 2020.

The peso has been riding the tide of record high interest rates in Mexico that had risen to 11.25 percent level at the central bank meeting in March. However, the Mexican Central Bank, in their May meeting, held their rate steady and look to continue to do so for the time being with inflation subsiding in the latest data-points.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been surging higher this year with the MXN hitting a new 7-year high in this week’s trading. Overall, the peso is higher against the dollar in 2023 by approximately 15 percent and is trading at the best levels since 2016.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,373	28	12,768	46	-16,260	50	3,492	55
EUR	775,142	81	165,725	82	-214,015	18	48,290	56
GBP	240,301	61	13,235	80	-15,208	24	1,973	62
JPY	243,237	75	-96,193	10	106,512	88	-10,319	32
CHF	41,354	40	-435	53	1,533	48	-1,098	54
CAD	179,871	50	-29,914	27	39,037	83	-9,123	3
AUD	204,963	94	-44,126	44	59,100	63	-14,974	16
NZD	39,507	33	-130	53	1,195	49	-1,065	37
MXN	224,395	46	78,005	100	-83,021	0	5,016	75
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	64,846	59	31,275	76	-35,269	21	3,994	76
Bitcoin	11,715	45	187	80	-624	0	437	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (80 percent), Bitcoin (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (27 percent), the Australian Dollar (44 percent) and the US Dollar Index (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.7 percent)
EuroFX (82.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (80.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (92.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (22 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (15 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-2 percent), EuroFX (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-24.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.1 percent)
Bitcoin (11.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (35.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.9	2.5	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.8	7.5
– Net Position:	12,768	-16,260	3,492
– Gross Longs:	23,927	819	5,936
– Gross Shorts:	11,159	17,079	2,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	49.9	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.8	22.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 165,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	53.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	81.3	5.9
– Net Position:	165,725	-214,015	48,290
– Gross Longs:	241,817	415,872	93,836
– Gross Shorts:	76,092	629,887	45,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	18.2	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.2	-1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	51.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	57.9	11.5
– Net Position:	13,235	-15,208	1,973
– Gross Longs:	70,320	124,002	29,613
– Gross Shorts:	57,085	139,210	27,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	23.8	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-4.9	-9.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -96,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	24.8	16.3
– Net Position:	-96,193	106,512	-10,319
– Gross Longs:	40,736	166,931	29,299
– Gross Shorts:	136,929	60,419	39,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	87.6	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	21.9	-11.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	44.9	32.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	41.2	35.3
– Net Position:	-435	1,533	-1,098
– Gross Longs:	8,482	18,560	13,516
– Gross Shorts:	8,917	17,027	14,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.5	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-3.1	-8.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	59.6	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	37.9	20.3
– Net Position:	-29,914	39,037	-9,123
– Gross Longs:	37,619	107,243	27,430
– Gross Shorts:	67,533	68,206	36,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	82.7	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-2.1	-29.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	53.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	24.6	16.8
– Net Position:	-44,126	59,100	-14,974
– Gross Longs:	68,969	109,462	19,509
– Gross Shorts:	113,095	50,362	34,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	63.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	6.4	-16.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	47.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	44.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-130	1,195	-1,065
– Gross Longs:	16,081	18,608	3,670
– Gross Shorts:	16,211	17,413	4,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	49.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-5.9	-14.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 78,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	44.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	81.1	1.3
– Net Position:	78,005	-83,021	5,016
– Gross Longs:	115,535	98,971	7,942
– Gross Shorts:	37,530	181,992	2,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.9	3.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	29.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	83.5	9.3
– Net Position:	31,275	-35,269	3,994
– Gross Longs:	35,223	18,861	9,998
– Gross Shorts:	3,948	54,130	6,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	21.3	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-25.2	22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	2.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.6	7.5	6.3
– Net Position:	187	-624	437
– Gross Longs:	9,040	251	1,178
– Gross Shorts:	8,853	875	741
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	35.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-18.8	-5.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Jun

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (144,765 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (47,285 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9,208 contracts) and the Eurodollar (3,739 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-91,660 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-78,783 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-79,661 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-49,768 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-16,677 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week was the further rise in the record bearish speculator positions for the 2-Year, 5-Year and 10-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply decreased (weekly change of -79,661 contracts) their bets for the fifth consecutive week this week. The speculative position has now added a gigantic total of -423,556 contracts to the bearish position in just the past five weeks alone. This brings the overall net position to the new all-time record bearish level of -969,863 contracts.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions also fell once again this week by -49,768 contracts and have now declined for six consecutive weeks. The 5-Year speculator bets have added a total of -229,335 contracts to the bearish position in just the past six weeks and have established a new record bearish level of -983,837 contracts.

Large speculative 10-Year Bond positions also continued to fall this week for a second straight week. The -157,979 contract shortfall over the past two weeks has dropped the 10-Year to its own all-time record low for a second consecutive week with this week’s record at a total of -850,421 contracts.

The latest data is through Tuesday and prior to the final agreement on the debt ceiling so it will be interesting to see if there are sharp adjustments made in next week’s data with a new debt ceiling deal done.

All three bond markets saw higher futures prices to close out the week and remain off their lows of this bearish cycle despite the speculator’s historically weak sentiment. The 2-Year is higher by approximately 1.40 percent from its March 2023 low, the 5-Year is higher by approximately 3 percent from the October 2022 low while the 10-Year is higher by approximately 4.50 percent from its own October 2022 low-point.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	560,386	0	-37,810	73	45,422	23	-7,612	98
FedFunds	1,855,851	77	-180,155	17	189,980	83	-9,825	72
2-Year	3,162,876	93	-969,863	0	885,109	100	84,754	96
Long T-Bond	1,280,460	78	-59,913	65	12,279	15	47,634	83
10-Year	4,728,273	90	-850,421	0	758,535	100	91,886	94
5-Year	4,871,724	88	-983,837	0	922,460	100	61,377	98

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Fed Funds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (17.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (14.8 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (86.3 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (54 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the Fed Funds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-37.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	61.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	53.3	11.2
– Net Position:	-37,810	45,422	-7,612
– Gross Longs:	161,451	344,051	54,884
– Gross Shorts:	199,261	298,629	62,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.8	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.0	-2.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 144,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	61.0	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	61.3	0.6
– Net Position:	43,222	-28,251	-14,971
– Gross Longs:	1,690,850	6,052,948	45,501
– Gross Shorts:	1,647,628	6,081,199	60,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.0	3.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-53.2	-7.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -180,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -91,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	76.9	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	66.7	2.9
– Net Position:	-180,155	189,980	-9,825
– Gross Longs:	115,276	1,427,182	43,471
– Gross Shorts:	295,431	1,237,202	53,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.8	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	4.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -969,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -79,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -890,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	55.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-969,863	885,109	84,754
– Gross Longs:	242,645	2,651,778	233,553
– Gross Shorts:	1,212,508	1,766,669	148,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	39.2	14.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -983,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -934,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	64.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-983,837	922,460	61,377
– Gross Longs:	338,249	4,064,536	368,659
– Gross Shorts:	1,322,086	3,142,076	307,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.5	6.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -850,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -771,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	79.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	63.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-850,421	758,535	91,886
– Gross Longs:	412,506	3,774,585	417,126
– Gross Shorts:	1,262,927	3,016,050	325,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	12.7	11.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 47,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	64.9	14.7
– Net Position:	-110,794	170,548	-59,754
– Gross Longs:	203,767	1,258,392	185,836
– Gross Shorts:	314,561	1,087,844	245,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	70.6	78.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-25.0	12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	73.3	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	72.3	10.9
– Net Position:	-59,913	12,279	47,634
– Gross Longs:	108,088	938,620	187,052
– Gross Shorts:	168,001	926,341	139,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	15.0	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-12.1	-16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -399,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -409,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	81.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-399,900	342,324	57,576
– Gross Longs:	80,393	1,198,201	175,098
– Gross Shorts:	480,293	855,877	117,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	71.7	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.7	6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

04 Jun

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,584 contracts) with Steel (12 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,894 contracts), Silver (-834 contracts), Palladium (-761 contracts) and Platinum (-4,073 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued slide for the Copper speculative positions.

The large speculator position in Copper futures fell by -5,894 contracts this week and have now declined in five out of the past six weeks. The decrease in Copper bets has taken the current net contracts from a standing of +8,934 contracts on April 18th to a total of -35,702 contracts this week for an overall 6-week decline by -44,636 contracts.

This week’s standing marks the most bearish level of the past 167-weeks, dating back to March 17th of 2020 when bearish positions were -38,055 contracts.

Copper prices have been on the decline since last year with prices down by a little over 25 percent since the highs of March 2022. Recent weakness in China’s economy is continuing to weigh on Copper’s outlook. The futures price closed higher this week at $3.72 and bounced off the 200-week moving average which coincides with a $3.65 support level. Futures prices had fallen in five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s slight rebound.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	449,515	13	169,316	52	-190,005	51	20,689	32
Silver	133,619	18	21,124	48	-34,536	52	13,412	41
Copper	223,185	61	-35,702	0	34,259	100	1,443	28
Palladium	10,658	64	-6,050	10	6,472	91	-422	16
Platinum	69,929	72	23,406	70	-27,973	36	4,567	29

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (70 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (0 percent) and Palladium (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.8 percent)
Silver (48.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.6 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.1 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (79.0 percent)
Palladium (9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)
Steel (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Steel (-2 percent) are the leaders over the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-9.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-14.1 percent)
Silver (-7.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.5 percent)
Copper (-38.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-22.0 percent)
Platinum (-2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.6 percent)
Palladium (-3.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)
Steel (-1.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 169,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	29.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	71.9	5.1
– Net Position:	169,316	-190,005	20,689
– Gross Longs:	237,306	133,329	43,611
– Gross Shorts:	67,990	323,334	22,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	50.6	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.2	-14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	31.1	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	57.0	9.0
– Net Position:	21,124	-34,536	13,412
– Gross Longs:	54,837	41,602	25,484
– Gross Shorts:	33,713	76,138	12,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.1	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	5.0	7.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	48.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	33.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,702	34,259	1,443
– Gross Longs:	55,099	109,115	16,379
– Gross Shorts:	90,801	74,856	14,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.6	41.8	-37.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	29.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	69.7	3.9
– Net Position:	23,406	-27,973	4,567
– Gross Longs:	37,534	20,734	7,315
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	48,707	2,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	35.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.5	9.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	70.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.6	9.4	16.2
– Net Position:	-6,050	6,472	-422
– Gross Longs:	1,584	7,473	1,308
– Gross Shorts:	7,634	1,001	1,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.5	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	2.7	5.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.3	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	64.6	1.1
– Net Position:	-5,299	5,413	-114
– Gross Longs:	2,291	24,022	200
– Gross Shorts:	7,590	18,609	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.8	5.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	2.3	-33.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

04 Jun

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,860 contracts) with Soybeans (609 contracts) and Cocoa (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-23,423 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-15,489 contracts), Coffee (-9,128 contracts), Cotton (-7,707 contracts), Wheat (-7,677 contracts), Lean Hogs (-2,262 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,385 contracts) and Live Cattle (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rising bearish level of the Wheat’s speculator’s positioning.

Wheat speculator bets continued to fall again this week for a second straight week and for the eleventh time out of the past fifteen weeks. Speculator positions have now added approximately -60,000 contracts to the bearish level over the past fifteen weeks.

The Wheat speculator standing, currently at -93,996 contracts, has fallen to the most bearish level of the past 279 weeks, dating back to January 23rd of 2018.

Wheat prices have also been on the downtrend since hitting all-time record high levels in March of 2022 and have now fallen over 50 percent from those highest levels of 2022. Wheat futures closed this week at $619.00 with the low of this week touching the lowest price since December of 2020 near 573.20

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,920,740	47	162,591	2	-192,877	97	30,286	40
Gold	449,515	13	169,316	52	-190,005	51	20,689	32
Silver	133,619	18	21,124	48	-34,536	52	13,412	41
Copper	223,185	61	-35,702	0	34,259	100	1,443	28
Palladium	10,658	64	-6,050	10	6,472	91	-422	16
Platinum	69,929	72	23,406	70	-27,973	36	4,567	29
Natural Gas	1,359,496	79	-106,170	30	74,969	69	31,201	54
Brent	148,868	21	-53,294	0	48,912	100	4,382	68
Heating Oil	309,819	40	18,341	61	-22,943	70	4,602	14
Soybeans	672,482	21	29,814	1	-4,162	95	-25,652	32
Corn	1,319,205	17	-20,407	27	72,210	82	-51,803	25
Coffee	202,708	14	23,620	52	-23,623	52	3	13
Sugar	962,437	62	250,387	79	-293,732	20	43,345	59
Wheat	395,158	63	-93,996	0	88,847	100	5,149	91

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (79 percent), Soybean Meal (57 percent) and Coffee (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Wheat (0 percent) and the Soybeans (1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.1 percent)
Sugar (79.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (87.7 percent)
Coffee (51.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (65.1 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.9 percent)
Cotton (19.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.5 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (99.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Cocoa & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (8 percent) and Cotton (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-58 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Corn (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.2 percent)
Sugar (-6.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.0 percent)
Coffee (-13.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybeans (-58.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-59.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-18.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-7.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.0 percent)
Cotton (7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.3 percent)
Cocoa (7.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 41,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	51.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	46.5	12.7
– Net Position:	-20,407	72,210	-51,803
– Gross Longs:	274,956	685,222	115,112
– Gross Shorts:	295,363	613,012	166,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	82.2	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	16.1	10.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 250,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 273,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	40.2	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	70.7	4.8
– Net Position:	250,387	-293,732	43,345
– Gross Longs:	332,464	386,730	89,595
– Gross Shorts:	82,077	680,462	46,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.0	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	9.9	-18.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	46.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	58.5	3.4
– Net Position:	23,620	-23,623	3
– Gross Longs:	47,353	95,031	6,827
– Gross Shorts:	23,733	118,654	6,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	52.4	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	14.6	-15.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	53.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.3	10.4
– Net Position:	29,814	-4,162	-25,652
– Gross Longs:	132,301	360,791	44,298
– Gross Shorts:	102,487	364,953	69,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	95.4	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-58.0	50.3	4.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	50.7	6.1
– Net Position:	-31,248	33,635	-2,387
– Gross Longs:	80,635	311,897	31,021
– Gross Shorts:	111,883	278,262	33,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	13.8	-19.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 94,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	39.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	61.7	6.9
– Net Position:	94,533	-107,413	12,880
– Gross Longs:	121,664	191,186	46,401
– Gross Shorts:	27,131	298,599	33,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	46.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	20.7	-16.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 101,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	27.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.8	12.8
– Net Position:	101,378	-90,357	-11,021
– Gross Longs:	151,401	89,705	31,082
– Gross Shorts:	50,023	180,062	42,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	11.7	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	2.9	-9.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	38.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	24.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-36,114	33,233	2,881
– Gross Longs:	54,977	89,961	22,880
– Gross Shorts:	91,091	56,728	19,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	8.7	-3.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	48.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	56.7	5.5
– Net Position:	14,612	-15,861	1,249
– Gross Longs:	58,770	95,264	12,016
– Gross Shorts:	44,158	111,125	10,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	79.6	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.9	-9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	29.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	50.7	3.3
– Net Position:	65,573	-71,049	5,476
– Gross Longs:	142,385	100,654	16,614
– Gross Shorts:	76,812	171,703	11,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	39.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	16.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-93,996	88,847	5,149
– Gross Longs:	107,338	154,656	39,165
– Gross Shorts:	201,334	65,809	34,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	18.9	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

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