COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 51

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (64,957 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (7,638 contracts), 10-Year Bonds (5,790 contracts) and the Fed Funds (1,780 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-26,666 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-12,817 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,228 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,550 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,804,148	94	143	80	16,229	20	-16,372	79
FedFunds	1,623,884	57	-158,794	29	169,354	71	-10,560	70
2-Year	3,631,663	98	-1,146,046	0	1,050,948	100	95,098	98
Long T-Bond	1,254,582	59	-145,844	37	95,239	45	50,605	85
10-Year	4,733,680	91	-623,771	22	599,836	83	23,935	79
5-Year	5,348,725	100	-1,137,851	1	1,093,090	99	44,761	93

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (80 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (37 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (29 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (21.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (37.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (80.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (76.0 percent)

10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the Fed Funds (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-20 percent), US Treasury Bonds (-15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with and the SOFR 3-Months (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (15.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-8.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-19.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-7.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 64,957 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	60.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	59.9	0.5
– Net Position:	143	16,229	-16,372
– Gross Longs:	1,745,239	5,886,149	28,054
– Gross Shorts:	1,745,096	5,869,920	44,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	19.5	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	8.3	3.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -158,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	73.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	63.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-158,794	169,354	-10,560
– Gross Longs:	55,995	1,197,275	37,597
– Gross Shorts:	214,789	1,027,921	48,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	71.4	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-5.0	1.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,146,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,119,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	82.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	53.9	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,146,046	1,050,948	95,098
– Gross Longs:	329,386	3,010,134	250,656
– Gross Shorts:	1,475,432	1,959,186	155,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	8.3	3.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,137,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,145,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	85.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	65.0	6.3
– Net Position:	-1,137,851	1,093,090	44,761
– Gross Longs:	352,562	4,568,106	383,631
– Gross Shorts:	1,490,413	3,475,016	338,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	99.5	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	6.3	8.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -623,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -629,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	80.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	67.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-623,771	599,836	23,935
– Gross Longs:	443,907	3,792,947	402,493
– Gross Shorts:	1,067,678	3,193,111	378,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	83.2	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-1.5	-11.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -197,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	78.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	61.9	15.1
– Net Position:	-197,984	292,592	-94,608
– Gross Longs:	170,280	1,378,559	169,328
– Gross Shorts:	368,264	1,085,967	263,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	96.9	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	18.9	-15.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -145,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	77.9	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	70.3	11.0
– Net Position:	-145,844	95,239	50,605
– Gross Longs:	80,250	976,934	188,398
– Gross Shorts:	226,094	881,695	137,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	44.6	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	12.4	8.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -444,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -439,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	57.1	7.8
– Net Position:	-444,625	387,606	57,019
– Gross Longs:	77,764	1,247,283	175,105
– Gross Shorts:	522,389	859,677	118,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	95.6	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	22.6	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (31,070 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (8,557 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (265 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-10,114 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,871 contracts), VIX (-1,853 contracts) and Russell-Mini (-3,067 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,243,361	24	-232,615	30	215,413	70	17,202	50
Nikkei 225	16,314	17	-2,599	52	1,803	47	796	38
Nasdaq-Mini	260,623	37	-10,672	71	7,629	28	3,043	59
DowJones-Mini	111,965	84	1,416	78	234	34	-1,650	36
VIX	397,695	71	-42,142	89	46,392	9	-4,250	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,636	38	9,187	62	15,906	54	-25,093	26

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (89 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (30.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (25.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (53.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (71.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (77.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (52.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (48 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (26 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-3 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (12.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (48.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (44.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (26.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	46.2	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	34.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-42,142	46,392	-4,250
– Gross Longs:	98,339	183,709	23,761
– Gross Shorts:	140,481	137,317	28,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	9.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-15.5	-19.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 31,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	75.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	65.8	10.8
– Net Position:	-232,615	215,413	17,202
– Gross Longs:	238,333	1,692,161	258,370
– Gross Shorts:	470,948	1,476,748	241,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	69.6	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-12.8	-2.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	51.0	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	50.8	14.2
– Net Position:	1,416	234	-1,650
– Gross Longs:	35,445	57,124	14,218
– Gross Shorts:	34,029	56,890	15,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	34.3	35.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.1	-30.0	-10.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	56.2	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	53.3	15.1
– Net Position:	-10,672	7,629	3,043
– Gross Longs:	66,261	146,469	42,387
– Gross Shorts:	76,933	138,840	39,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	27.6	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	5.8	32.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -68,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.3	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	70.2	4.9
– Net Position:	-68,769	63,644	5,125
– Gross Longs:	54,699	433,206	30,730
– Gross Shorts:	123,468	369,562	25,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.7	66.2	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.9	-0.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	64.5	26.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	53.4	21.1
– Net Position:	-2,599	1,803	796
– Gross Longs:	1,559	10,519	4,236
– Gross Shorts:	4,158	8,716	3,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.9	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-20.1	-8.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,114 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	90.1	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	84.3	1.3
– Net Position:	-30,964	23,535	7,429
– Gross Longs:	24,995	365,843	12,565
– Gross Shorts:	55,959	342,308	5,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	87.5	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.3	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,097 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (3,420 contracts), Heating Oil (3,106 contracts) and Gasoline (1,965 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-1,359 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-522 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The WTI Crude Oil speculative positioning has risen for four straight weeks and has added a total of +86,808 contracts to the current bullish spec position in just these past four weeks. The current speculator standing for WTI is now at the highest level in thirteen weeks, dating back to April 25th.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,743,598	31	225,196	22	-250,976	80	25,780	31
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34
Natural Gas	1,185,638	46	-97,121	33	70,972	68	26,149	42
Brent	135,185	8	-42,350	29	39,044	72	3,306	54
Heating Oil	324,610	46	24,498	72	-48,468	29	23,970	81
Soybeans	676,643	22	134,982	42	-116,876	56	-18,106	57
Corn	1,280,207	12	70,476	32	-6,966	75	-63,510	24
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	911,185	51	219,814	69	-251,397	33	31,583	43
Wheat	311,339	15	-20,555	52	27,401	51	-6,846	50

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) and the Heating Oil (72.4 percent) lead the energy category currently.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Natural Gas (33.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.8 percent)
Gasoline (50.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.5 percent)
Heating Oil (72.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent), Gasoline (10.7 percent) and Natural Gas (10.3 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-6.6 percent)
Natural Gas (10.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.3 percent)
Gasoline (10.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (16.6 percent)
Heating Oil (6.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (0.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.6 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 225,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	36.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	51.2	3.5
– Net Position:	225,196	-250,976	25,780
– Gross Longs:	350,507	642,195	86,919
– Gross Shorts:	125,311	893,171	61,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	80.3	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-15.6	-6.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	51.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	22.9	3.9
– Net Position:	-42,350	39,044	3,306
– Gross Longs:	14,810	69,981	8,633
– Gross Shorts:	57,160	30,937	5,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	71.9	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-12.1	2.9

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	40.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	34.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-97,121	70,972	26,149
– Gross Longs:	245,779	473,719	67,603
– Gross Shorts:	342,900	402,747	41,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	67.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-6.5	-22.9

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 58,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	41.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	60.3	3.7
– Net Position:	58,751	-69,173	10,422
– Gross Longs:	111,892	152,043	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	53,141	221,216	13,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	46.1	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-17.8	36.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	45.1	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	60.1	9.7
– Net Position:	24,498	-48,468	23,970
– Gross Longs:	50,444	146,548	55,411
– Gross Shorts:	25,946	195,016	31,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	29.3	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-28.1	49.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	82.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	72.4	0.1
– Net Position:	-6,173	5,973	200
– Gross Longs:	9,524	48,544	279
– Gross Shorts:	15,697	42,571	79
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	18.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.0	-1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

29 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, GBP, MXN, Palladium & 2-Year top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is currently at a 99.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -0.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 77,894 net contracts this week with a change of 1,406 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 36.3 this week. The speculator position registered 58,995 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -4,734 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 92.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 87,841 net contracts this week with a change of -6,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 18.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,142 net contracts this week with a change of -1,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Euro speculator level sits at a 86.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.8 this week.

The speculator position was 177,230 net contracts this week with a change of -1,602 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,377 net contracts this week with a change of -27 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,146,046 net contracts this week with a change of -26,666 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -251,634 net contracts this week with a change of -14,005 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,137,851 net contracts this week with a change of 7,638 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.7 this week. The speculator position was -444,625 net contracts this week with a change of -5,228 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

29 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,606 contracts) with Soybeans (27,699 contracts), Sugar (23,508 contracts), Cotton (19,503 contracts), Wheat (18,148 contracts), Soybean Oil (12,416 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,048 contracts), Cocoa (1,406 contracts) and Soybean Meal (9,078 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Live Cattle (-9,538 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,743,598	31	225,196	22	-250,976	80	25,780	31
Gold	476,176	25	173,639	53	-198,210	47	24,571	42
Silver	146,898	36	36,925	71	-49,718	34	12,793	37
Copper	234,713	70	1,159	32	-3,904	68	2,745	36
Palladium	16,760	100	-8,377	0	8,899	100	-522	10
Platinum	64,197	48	15,487	51	-20,441	51	4,954	34
Natural Gas	1,185,638	46	-97,121	33	70,972	68	26,149	42
Brent	135,185	8	-42,350	29	39,044	72	3,306	54
Heating Oil	324,610	46	24,498	72	-48,468	29	23,970	81
Soybeans	676,643	22	134,982	42	-116,876	56	-18,106	57
Corn	1,280,207	12	70,476	32	-6,966	75	-63,510	24
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	911,185	51	219,814	69	-251,397	33	31,583	43
Wheat	311,339	15	-20,555	52	27,401	51	-6,846	50

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Wheat (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (27 percent) and Corn (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Coffee (36 percent) and the Cotton (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (24.3 percent)
Sugar (68.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (42.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.6 percent)
Live Cattle (81.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.3 percent)
Cotton (37.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.6 percent)
Cocoa (99.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (52.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (39.3 percent)

Wheat & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (47 percent) and Soybeans (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (23 percent), Cotton (20 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Sugar (-11 percent) and Cocoa (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (28.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.2 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.9 percent)
Wheat (47.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 50,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	49.2	13.9
– Net Position:	70,476	-6,966	-63,510
– Gross Longs:	291,631	622,624	114,321
– Gross Shorts:	221,155	629,590	177,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	75.1	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-3.0	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 219,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 23,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	43.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	71.2	5.1
– Net Position:	219,814	-251,397	31,583
– Gross Longs:	303,615	397,188	78,190
– Gross Shorts:	83,801	648,585	46,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	32.9	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	14.3	-20.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	48.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.7	9.7
– Net Position:	134,982	-116,876	-18,106
– Gross Longs:	198,146	327,696	47,428
– Gross Shorts:	63,164	444,572	65,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	56.4	57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-27.8	19.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	53.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	67.7	4.8
– Net Position:	54,043	-66,223	12,180
– Gross Longs:	100,146	258,123	35,174
– Gross Shorts:	46,103	324,346	22,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	48.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-28.3	55.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 106,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	36.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	62.8	5.2
– Net Position:	106,329	-128,326	21,997
– Gross Longs:	126,137	181,449	47,707
– Gross Shorts:	19,808	309,775	25,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	38.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-7.3	45.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	29.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	54.0	12.0
– Net Position:	95,306	-82,121	-13,185
– Gross Longs:	148,543	98,408	26,761
– Gross Shorts:	53,237	180,529	39,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	22.4	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	22.4	-7.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	37.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	36.4	10.3
– Net Position:	-3,013	1,455	1,558
– Gross Longs:	63,698	74,774	22,377
– Gross Shorts:	66,711	73,319	20,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	71.7	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-23.0	11.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	46.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	70.0	3.8
– Net Position:	37,984	-46,650	8,666
– Gross Longs:	69,370	89,362	16,115
– Gross Shorts:	31,386	136,012	7,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	58.7	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-21.6	30.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 77,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,406 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	27.5	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	50.2	2.7
– Net Position:	77,894	-81,340	3,446
– Gross Longs:	146,650	98,702	13,174
– Gross Shorts:	68,756	180,042	9,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.9	1.0	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.0	-8.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	38.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	30.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-20,555	27,401	-6,846
– Gross Longs:	90,416	121,245	28,164
– Gross Shorts:	110,971	93,844	35,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	50.8	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.1	-42.6	-45.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Jul

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were a bit lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (38,670 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (26,943 contracts), the British Pound (5,666 contracts), the Brazilian Real (735 contracts) and Bitcoin (694 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,317 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,923 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,375 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,304 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,674 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-944 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the strength of this week’s moves in the speculator’s positioning of the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Large speculative Euro positions jumped this week by over +38,000 contracts and reversed a recent decline for the Euro positions in seven out of the previous eight weeks. This gain in bullish bets has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bullish level of the past nine weeks at a total of +178,832 contracts.

The Euro currency’s strength has been on display over the past few months as the EURUSD exchange rate touched a one-year high this week at over the 1.1300 level. The EURUSD did close the week lower after hitting the one-year high but is now quite a ways off the 2022 low of 0.9508 that was touched in September.

The large speculative yen positions also surged this week by over +26,000 net contracts and gained for the second week in a row. The yen speculator positioning has been quite the opposite of the Euro as the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy of no interest rate increases which has prompted speculators to have large bearish positions in the yen. The speculator position on July 3rd marked the most bearish level since January of 2018 at a total of -117,920 contracts.

The yen positions in the past two weeks have improved though and this week’s gain brings the current bearish position (at -90,239 contracts) under the -100,000 contract threshold for the first time since May.

The yen’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar remains historically weak and in a downtrend in our trend model. The USDJPY exchange rate rose back over the 140.00 threshold this week (US Dollar strength/Japanese Yen weakness) after dipping below that level last week.

This upcoming week will be a potentially volatile week in currencies as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will have central bank meetings and announce their respective policy outlooks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,045	37	11,067	43	-11,617	57	550	23
EUR	783,132	80	178,832	87	-229,343	13	50,511	60
GBP	265,766	77	63,729	100	-81,606	0	17,877	93
JPY	230,932	63	-90,239	16	98,195	84	-7,956	37
CHF	43,213	47	-10,211	28	5,927	55	4,284	72
CAD	146,171	23	521	55	-12,991	47	12,470	50
AUD	148,592	35	-50,401	38	51,045	57	-644	51
NZD	39,402	32	-3,626	44	938	49	2,688	82
MXN	238,006	51	94,492	97	-98,239	3	3,747	35
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	48,146	37	33,933	79	-32,196	25	-1,737	30
Bitcoin	15,455	73	-1,161	57	196	0	965	35

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (79 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (16 percent) and the Swiss Franc (28 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (87.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (96.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (96.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.0 percent)
Bitcoin (56.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.6 percent)

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (36 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (10 percent), the Japanese Yen (9 percent) and the EuroFX (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-24 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (7.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (36.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (32.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-35.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	19.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	47.8	8.9
– Net Position:	11,067	-11,617	550
– Gross Longs:	27,410	7,994	4,193
– Gross Shorts:	16,343	19,611	3,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	57.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	5.6	-26.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 178,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	51.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	81.2	5.9
– Net Position:	178,832	-229,343	50,511
– Gross Longs:	264,514	406,328	97,050
– Gross Shorts:	85,682	635,671	46,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	13.0	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-8.6	8.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	28.7	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	59.4	8.2
– Net Position:	63,729	-81,606	17,877
– Gross Longs:	135,269	76,229	39,762
– Gross Shorts:	71,540	157,835	21,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.6	-37.8	31.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	73.8	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	31.3	15.6
– Net Position:	-90,239	98,195	-7,956
– Gross Longs:	29,776	170,491	28,148
– Gross Shorts:	120,015	72,296	36,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	83.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.6	2.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	42.1	42.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	28.4	32.1
– Net Position:	-10,211	5,927	4,284
– Gross Longs:	6,772	18,183	18,158
– Gross Shorts:	16,983	12,256	13,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	54.8	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	-1.8	33.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	50.5	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	59.4	16.0
– Net Position:	521	-12,991	12,470
– Gross Longs:	33,877	73,833	35,907
– Gross Shorts:	33,356	86,824	23,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	47.3	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.2	-35.0	28.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	57.2	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	22.8	14.9
– Net Position:	-50,401	51,045	-644
– Gross Longs:	38,252	84,937	21,539
– Gross Shorts:	88,653	33,892	22,183
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	57.0	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-12.3	25.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	52.4	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	50.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-3,626	938	2,688
– Gross Longs:	13,193	20,654	5,117
– Gross Shorts:	16,819	19,716	2,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	48.7	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	-4.5	57.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 94,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	44.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	85.2	2.1
– Net Position:	94,492	-98,239	3,747
– Gross Longs:	122,811	104,617	8,638
– Gross Shorts:	28,319	202,856	4,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	2.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.2	-15.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.3	14.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	81.0	12.8
– Net Position:	33,933	-32,196	-1,737
– Gross Longs:	36,730	6,793	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	2,797	38,989	6,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	25.1	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-8.0	-10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.6	4.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	3.4	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,161	196	965
– Gross Longs:	11,846	722	1,657
– Gross Shorts:	13,007	526	692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	63.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	53.6	12.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Jul

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Cocoa, 2-Year & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 18th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,729 net contracts this week with a change of 5,666 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.9 this week. The speculator position registered 76,488 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 96.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 94,492 net contracts this week with a change of -1,674 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 104,844 net contracts this week with a change of -3,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.8 this week.

The speculator position was -40,289 net contracts this week with a change of 10,444 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,119,380 net contracts this week with a change of -47,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56.1 this week. The speculator position was -237,629 net contracts this week with a change of -44,936 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,350 net contracts this week with a change of -78 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,145,489 net contracts this week with a change of -89,405 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The speculator position was -439,397 net contracts this week with a change of -6,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

23 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,594 contracts) with Silver (23,570 contracts), Platinum (7,949 contracts) and Copper (7,607 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-78 contracts) and Steel (-169 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	482,104	28	193,348	62	-213,715	41	20,367	31
Silver	146,863	36	43,862	81	-55,983	26	12,121	34
Copper	216,862	56	-3,550	28	-1,054	71	4,604	48
Palladium	16,017	100	-8,350	0	8,837	100	-487	12
Platinum	65,834	54	15,736	52	-19,674	53	3,938	21

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (81 percent) and Steel (72 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (62.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.0 percent)
Silver (80.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (47.2 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.2 percent)
Platinum (51.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (33.6 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.6 percent)
Steel (72.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.6 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (32 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-20 percent) and Palladium (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (7.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.6 percent)
Silver (31.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-1.2 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.2 percent)
Platinum (-20.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-36.0 percent)
Palladium (-14.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-18.4 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 193,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,754 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	24.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	68.3	5.3
– Net Position:	193,348	-213,715	20,367
– Gross Longs:	263,740	115,498	45,784
– Gross Shorts:	70,392	329,213	25,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	41.4	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.0	-5.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,292 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	26.4	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.5	8.5
– Net Position:	43,862	-55,983	12,121
– Gross Longs:	76,420	38,710	24,540
– Gross Shorts:	32,558	94,693	12,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	26.1	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.9	-26.5	-2.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	41.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	41.8	6.0
– Net Position:	-3,550	-1,054	4,604
– Gross Longs:	67,321	89,488	17,684
– Gross Shorts:	70,871	90,542	13,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	70.8	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-21.2	20.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	26.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	56.1	4.9
– Net Position:	15,736	-19,674	3,938
– Gross Longs:	38,256	17,254	7,148
– Gross Shorts:	22,520	36,928	3,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	52.8	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	18.8	-2.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,272 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	61.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.5	6.3	11.8
– Net Position:	-8,350	8,837	-487
– Gross Longs:	3,738	9,840	1,398
– Gross Shorts:	12,088	1,003	1,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	9.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	12.4	6.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	74.2	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	73.6	0.8
– Net Position:	-370	160	210
– Gross Longs:	4,355	17,966	411
– Gross Shorts:	4,725	17,806	201
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	27.5	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.1	12.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

23 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (5,576 contracts) with the Fed Funds (4,285 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-101,216 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-47,680 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-89,405 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-12,310 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-36,694 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,485 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,743,755	93	-64,814	76	71,653	23	-6,839	84
FedFunds	1,587,838	54	-160,574	25	171,109	75	-10,535	70
2-Year	3,654,986	99	-1,119,380	0	1,019,100	100	100,280	100
Long T-Bond	1,248,006	61	-143,294	38	102,899	47	40,395	78
10-Year	4,746,657	91	-629,561	21	627,008	86	2,553	74
5-Year	5,333,980	100	-1,145,489	0	1,099,014	100	46,475	94

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (76 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (38 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (25 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (76.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (82.9 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (14 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (-7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-13.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-8.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-19.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-23.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-7.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -101,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	60.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	59.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-64,814	71,653	-6,839
– Gross Longs:	1,698,709	5,884,636	26,636
– Gross Shorts:	1,763,523	5,812,983	33,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	23.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	6.7	4.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -160,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	73.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	62.5	2.8
– Net Position:	-160,574	171,109	-10,535
– Gross Longs:	63,814	1,163,314	34,331
– Gross Shorts:	224,388	992,205	44,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	75.0	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-13.2	-4.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,119,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -47,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,071,700 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	82.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	54.4	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,119,380	1,019,100	100,280
– Gross Longs:	337,331	3,008,318	252,359
– Gross Shorts:	1,456,711	1,989,218	152,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	14.5	2.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,145,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -89,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,056,084 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	85.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	64.5	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,145,489	1,099,014	46,475
– Gross Longs:	355,966	4,540,528	376,738
– Gross Shorts:	1,501,455	3,441,514	330,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	7.0	9.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -629,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -635,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	67.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-629,561	627,008	2,553
– Gross Longs:	438,567	3,828,697	382,073
– Gross Shorts:	1,068,128	3,201,689	379,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	86.0	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-7.0	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -185,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -36,694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	78.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	62.6	14.6
– Net Position:	-185,167	270,572	-85,405
– Gross Longs:	180,705	1,361,599	170,041
– Gross Shorts:	365,872	1,091,027	255,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	92.2	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.3	-5.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -143,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	78.4	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	70.2	11.3
– Net Position:	-143,294	102,899	40,395
– Gross Longs:	79,100	978,891	181,270
– Gross Shorts:	222,394	875,992	140,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	47.3	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	21.8	-0.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -439,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -432,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	82.6	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	57.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-439,397	377,894	61,503
– Gross Longs:	81,265	1,250,311	176,653
– Gross Shorts:	520,662	872,417	115,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	90.5	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	11.3	10.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

23 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & the VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (11,444 contracts) with the VIX (10,444 contracts), Nikkei 225 (1,007 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (171 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-54,706 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-9,749 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,280,677	28	-263,685	25	235,997	72	27,688	54
Nikkei 225	16,045	16	-2,864	50	1,564	45	1,300	45
Nasdaq-Mini	264,119	40	1,199	78	4,393	26	-5,592	43
DowJones-Mini	102,267	68	-7,141	54	6,949	48	192	45
VIX	438,936	92	-40,289	90	44,518	8	-4,229	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,387	38	7,207	56	15,003	52	-22,210	35

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (90 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (56 percent) and DowJones-Mini (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (19 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (82.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (53.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (21.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (83.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (43.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.3 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (29 percent), the VIX (13 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (12.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (44.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (8.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-4.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (19.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	47.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	37.1	6.3
– Net Position:	-40,289	44,518	-4,229
– Gross Longs:	109,936	207,566	23,481
– Gross Shorts:	150,225	163,048	27,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	7.7	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.0	-12.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -54,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	75.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	65.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-263,685	235,997	27,688
– Gross Longs:	235,723	1,728,979	264,046
– Gross Shorts:	499,408	1,492,982	236,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	72.5	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-15.8	11.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	54.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	47.7	14.4
– Net Position:	-7,141	6,949	192
– Gross Longs:	29,709	55,758	14,913
– Gross Shorts:	36,850	48,809	14,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	47.9	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.2	-29.6	-4.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	53.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	52.1	17.0
– Net Position:	1,199	4,393	-5,592
– Gross Longs:	75,196	141,970	39,322
– Gross Shorts:	73,997	137,577	44,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	25.5	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	1.2	10.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -65,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	82.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	71.4	4.0
– Net Position:	-65,702	60,957	4,745
– Gross Longs:	57,206	436,369	25,882
– Gross Shorts:	122,908	375,412	21,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	64.7	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-0.6	13.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	63.9	27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	54.2	19.3
– Net Position:	-2,864	1,564	1,300
– Gross Longs:	1,388	10,254	4,403
– Gross Shorts:	4,252	8,690	3,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	45.4	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.8	-21.7	-10.7

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	89.8	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	86.2	1.4
– Net Position:	-20,850	14,197	6,653
– Gross Longs:	25,099	354,008	12,096
– Gross Shorts:	45,949	339,811	5,443
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	76.2	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-1.5	13.9

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