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Archive for COT Updates – Page 5

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

09 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, Sugar & 5-Year lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 4th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 71,878 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,642 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.8 this week. The speculator position registered 302,508 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,099 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 13.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 116,439 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,605 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 30.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 462,381 net contracts this week with a boost of 18,506 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 11.8 this week.

The speculator position was -1,763 net contracts this week with a small increase of 22 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -50,767 net contracts this week with a drop of -8,339 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The speculator position was -33,109 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,927,666 net contracts this week with a drop of -151,611 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.8 this week. The speculator position was -58,614 net contracts this week with a rise of 7,990 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -49,090 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,059 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
02 Feb

US Dollar Speculator bets continue to shine vs major currencies

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Japanese Yen & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (13,714 contracts), the Mexican Peso (6,768 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (4,192 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (3,186 contracts) and with Bitcoin (426 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-13,415 contracts), the EuroFX (-4,118 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,363 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,163 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-672 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-535 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Speculator bets continue to shine vs major currencies

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is current positioning for the US Dollar against the major currencies. Despite a small dip in the US Dollar Index positioning this week, the other major currencies are overwhelmingly in negative or bearish net positions versus the US Dollar. All major currency positions in the COT markets are in direct relation to the US Dollar and, currently, eight out of the nine foreign currency levels are in bearish territory.

The most bearish position at the moment is the Canadian dollar at a total of -147,601 contracts. The CAD position has been over the -100,000 contract threshold for sixteen straight weeks and in twenty-eight out of the past thirty-four weeks. Overall, the CAD positioning has been in a continuous bearish level for seventy-eight straight weeks. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the Dollar has been falling sharply is currently at the lowest level since March of 2020 at the 0.6905 price.

The Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Swiss franc, Brazilian real and the Euro positions are all between -38,000 and -71,000 net speculator contracts this week. All of these currencies are in extreme bearish readings in the speculator strength scores which compares their current level to the past three years. The exchange rates for these currencies have all been in multi-year low-points as well over the past month except for the Swiss franc which has been trading around its 200-week moving average and the lowest level since May 2024.

The British pound sterling is not quite in an extreme bearish level but does remain in an overall bearish net standing at -21,672 contracts. The GBP exchange rate versus the Dollar is right under the 1.2400 threshold currently and recently touched the lowest level since 2023 near the 1.2100 exchange.

The Japanese yen which has seen its exchange rate at multi-decade lows for the past couple of years but is faring better than most of the other major currencies in speculator positioning. The JPY speculator bets are just at -959 contracts this week. The exchange rate does remain near the bottom of the range of the multi-decade lows but the speculator sentiment has come off the extremely negative levels from the past couple of years and has been helped out by the Bank of Japan’s latest monetary move of an interest rate increase.

The only major currency with a bullish speculator position this week versus the Dollar is the Mexican peso. The peso has been the one currency with strong speculator positions over the past few years with positive or bullish levels dating back to March of 2023. Last week, on January 21st, the position dipped into a small bearish level but bounced back this week into a small bullish standing. The exchange rate for the peso has been on the decline from last summer and has fallen to the lowest levels since 2022 at the 0.4801 exchange rate price.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (77 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (3 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent), the Swiss Franc (14 percent) and the Brazilian Real (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (36.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (37.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (26.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (32.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (67.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (25.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (25.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (31.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (28.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.7 percent)
Bitcoin (76.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (67.4 percent)

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (15 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-20 percent), Brazilian Real (-17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (17.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (37.5 percent)
EuroFX (-0.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-19.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-15.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-16.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-43.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-56.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-27.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.8 percent)
Bitcoin (21.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,872 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.925.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.362.47.3
– Net Position:14,200-15,106906
– Gross Longs:25,37210,4843,888
– Gross Shorts:11,17225,5902,982
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.164.333.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.7-15.3-8.6

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -66,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.857.312.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.650.68.2
– Net Position:-66,60441,59525,009
– Gross Longs:153,660354,83075,982
– Gross Shorts:220,264313,23550,973
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.495.428.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-2.216.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.758.710.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.239.718.7
– Net Position:-21,67239,354-17,682
– Gross Longs:59,331121,42121,081
– Gross Shorts:81,00382,06738,763
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.477.025.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.522.1-25.8

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.731.720.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.134.816.8
– Net Position:-959-6,7377,696
– Gross Longs:96,80968,68344,173
– Gross Shorts:97,76875,42036,477
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.226.082.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.8-1.325.6

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -43,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.185.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.328.821.5
– Net Position:-43,00055,450-12,450
– Gross Longs:4,99683,4738,491
– Gross Shorts:47,99628,02320,941
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.0 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.889.926.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.024.526.0

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -147,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.483.48.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.034.212.6
– Net Position:-147,601162,970-15,369
– Gross Longs:21,219276,25926,467
– Gross Shorts:168,820113,28941,836
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.883.20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-13.4-5.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -71,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.867.512.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.226.316.2
– Net Position:-71,83179,001-7,170
– Gross Longs:32,196129,57423,866
– Gross Shorts:104,02750,57331,036
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.377.030.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.34.76.3

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.486.33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.427.26.9
– Net Position:-47,03149,651-2,620
– Gross Longs:7,89872,4683,201
– Gross Shorts:54,92922,8175,821
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.991.520.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.33.815.2

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.761.02.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.963.24.4
– Net Position:5,224-3,023-2,201
– Gross Longs:46,60184,3883,854
– Gross Shorts:41,37787,4116,055
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.472.610.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.80.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.271.33.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.423.23.1
– Net Position:-38,49438,40787
– Gross Longs:19,37256,9522,529
– Gross Shorts:57,86618,5452,442
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.685.221.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.715.18.3

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:83.34.34.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.98.63.9
– Net Position:1,165-1,473308
– Gross Longs:28,5931,4821,661
– Gross Shorts:27,4282,9551,353
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.726.733.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-24.7-0.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
01 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, Sugar top weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 28th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 13.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 76,520 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,229 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 96.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 37.6 this week. The speculator position registered 112,967 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 77,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 95.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 8.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 119,044 net contracts this week with an increase of 312 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 299,409 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,375 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The US Treasury Bond speculator level sits at a 93.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 26.1 this week.

The speculator position was 28,584 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,128 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -31.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -29,434 net contracts this week with a boost of 2,033 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.7 this week. The speculator position was -42,428 net contracts this week with a subtraction of -2,477 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Euro speculator level resides at a 3.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -66,604 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,118 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat


The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.3 this week. The speculator position was -91,111 net contracts this week with a drop by -18,102 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 8.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -47,031 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,192 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
01 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only metals market with a gain was Palladium with a rise of 952 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,618 contracts), Silver (-3,112 contracts), Gold (-1,375 contracts), Platinum (-1,235 contracts) and with Steel (-251 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (94 percent) and Steel (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (45 percent) and Platinum (48 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (93.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (94.5 percent)
Silver (72.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.1 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (48.8 percent)
Platinum (47.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.5 percent)
Palladium (50.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.1 percent)
Steel (88.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.5 percent)

Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (14 percent) and Copper (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (8 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (5.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.0 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.5 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.7 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (5.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 299,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 300,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.619.18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.775.14.3
– Net Position:299,409-323,72224,313
– Gross Longs:338,371110,03449,224
– Gross Shorts:38,962433,75624,911
– Long to Short Ratio:8.7 to 10.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.95.858.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.2-13.94.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.222.017.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.358.57.4
– Net Position:44,368-60,26815,900
– Gross Longs:74,65636,40428,119
– Gross Shorts:30,28896,67212,219
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.227.847.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-3.1-6.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.036.17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.443.94.9
– Net Position:13,045-18,3575,312
– Gross Longs:86,83184,78316,918
– Gross Shorts:73,786103,14011,606
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.454.649.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.7-3.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,373 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.220.612.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.746.24.9
– Net Position:13,373-19,4836,110
– Gross Longs:46,60015,6919,802
– Gross Shorts:33,22735,1743,692
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.4 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.649.358.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.94.2-23.3

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.847.311.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.49.38.1
– Net Position:-7,0846,470614
– Gross Longs:5,5938,0582,000
– Gross Shorts:12,6771,5881,386
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.150.163.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.70.8-16.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.767.50.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.961.50.7
– Net Position:-1,7851,71768
– Gross Longs:7,36719,372271
– Gross Shorts:9,15217,655203
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.412.339.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-7.76.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
01 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 1-Month & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (77,373 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (63,045 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (28,065 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (20,136 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (4,128 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-120,397 contracts), the Fed Funds (-41,201 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-27,182 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,604 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (96 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (93 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (12 percent), the 5-Year Bond (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (21.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (41.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (53.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (52.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (32.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (93.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (92.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (86.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (96.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (77.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (27.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (25.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (38 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-28 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-36.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-18.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-0.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-20.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (26.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (37.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (25.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-27.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-17.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -231,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -41,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.872.31.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.261.01.9
– Net Position:-231,996231,578418
– Gross Longs:158,8881,475,43238,321
– Gross Shorts:390,8841,243,85437,903
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.884.285.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.335.07.6

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -644,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -672,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.863.40.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.257.10.3
– Net Position:-644,264639,1895,075
– Gross Longs:1,190,2016,390,62731,310
– Gross Shorts:1,834,4655,751,43826,235
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.072.790.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.727.07.4

 

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 112,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 77,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.157.30.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.964.40.0
– Net Position:112,967-112,462-505
– Gross Longs:411,468902,583131
– Gross Shorts:298,5011,015,045636
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.33.951.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.6-37.5-1.3

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,201,559 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,174,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.176.16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.650.92.7
– Net Position:-1,201,5591,063,075138,484
– Gross Longs:594,5963,213,069253,132
– Gross Shorts:1,796,1552,149,994114,648
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.378.279.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-5.42.8

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,776,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,796,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.684.66.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.658.54.7
– Net Position:-1,776,0551,656,392119,663
– Gross Longs:417,9565,363,619420,005
– Gross Shorts:2,194,0113,707,227300,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.086.974.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.7-0.95.4

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -700,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -120,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -580,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.075.38.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.362.27.5
– Net Position:-700,642640,37460,268
– Gross Longs:683,4373,676,042426,342
– Gross Shorts:1,384,0793,035,668366,074
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.957.277.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.1-1.4-4.7

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -109,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 63,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.874.39.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.667.811.7
– Net Position:-109,479149,059-39,580
– Gross Longs:336,7391,690,796226,084
– Gross Shorts:446,2181,541,737265,664
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.321.086.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.91.6-5.1

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.863.911.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.468.97.5
– Net Position:28,584-96,97268,388
– Gross Longs:466,6741,252,662215,698
– Gross Shorts:438,0901,349,634147,310
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.50.065.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.1-20.4-8.2

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -241,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.881.210.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.468.89.0
– Net Position:-241,592221,57820,014
– Gross Longs:139,1671,444,856180,040
– Gross Shorts:380,7591,223,278160,026
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.114.937.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.510.2-0.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News
01 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,952 contracts) with Soybeans (12,802 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,666 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,090 contracts), Coffee (2,229 contracts), Sugar (2,033 contracts) and Live Cattle (312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-18,102 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,915 contracts), Cotton (-2,477 contracts) and with Cocoa (-497 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (90 percent), Lean Hogs (79 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (83.9 percent)
Sugar (0.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.8 percent)
Soybeans (54.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (62.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.7 percent)
Live Cattle (95.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (78.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.9 percent)
Cotton (2.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.2 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (48.2 percent)
Wheat (4.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.2 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (33 percent) and Corn (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (14 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Soybean Oil (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-21 percent), Cotton (-11 percent) and Wheat (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (28.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (-31.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-41.4 percent)
Coffee (13.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.8 percent)
Soybeans (33.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (8.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-21.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.6 percent)
Cotton (-10.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.5 percent)
Wheat (-9.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 443,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 392,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.239.46.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.857.410.4
– Net Position:443,875-355,959-87,916
– Gross Longs:617,299780,449117,958
– Gross Shorts:173,4241,136,408205,874
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.415.20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.3-24.6-44.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.054.06.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.051.56.6
– Net Position:-29,43425,7463,688
– Gross Longs:230,941541,54469,367
– Gross Shorts:260,375515,79865,679
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.797.524.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.428.5-10.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 76,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.129.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.870.74.0
– Net Position:76,520-80,7054,185
– Gross Longs:85,90257,11711,978
– Gross Shorts:9,382137,8227,793
– Long to Short Ratio:9.2 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.081.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-14.39.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.255.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.555.48.9
– Net Position:31,3513,608-34,959
– Gross Longs:182,713482,19242,015
– Gross Shorts:151,362478,58476,974
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.049.621.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.2-30.1-50.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.454.55.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.964.14.5
– Net Position:48,167-53,8935,726
– Gross Longs:115,448308,19331,027
– Gross Shorts:67,281362,08625,301
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.836.336.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-9.517.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.550.58.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.749.35.5
– Net Position:-24,5086,91617,592
– Gross Longs:95,385292,58249,507
– Gross Shorts:119,893285,66631,915
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.480.534.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-5.8-26.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 119,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.727.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.351.413.9
– Net Position:119,044-92,602-26,442
– Gross Longs:202,150108,43627,836
– Gross Shorts:83,106201,03854,278
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.99.55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-5.6-12.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.433.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.354.69.2
– Net Position:66,061-61,847-4,214
– Gross Longs:123,796101,49323,441
– Gross Shorts:57,735163,34027,655
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.918.052.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.115.952.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.449.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.835.45.0
– Net Position:-42,42839,9292,499
– Gross Longs:64,766137,71416,275
– Gross Shorts:107,19497,78513,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.594.531.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.77.721.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -497 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.536.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.571.14.6
– Net Position:36,968-43,2976,329
– Gross Longs:49,95044,47112,017
– Gross Shorts:12,98287,7685,688
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.749.666.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.7-1.3-3.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -91,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.135.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.518.16.6
– Net Position:-91,11186,2894,822
– Gross Longs:133,872175,75437,566
– Gross Shorts:224,98389,46532,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.890.183.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.34.335.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
01 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (19,561 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (12,202 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,676 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-21,385 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-1,008 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-593 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-305 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (67 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (51.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (63.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (86.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (67.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (66.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (46.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (42.7 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-9 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (15.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-26.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-14.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (4.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-17.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.349.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.234.28.1
– Net Position:-49,44550,961-1,516
– Gross Longs:63,710164,19025,270
– Gross Shorts:113,155113,22926,786
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.651.371.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.42.3-9.3

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -56,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.471.013.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.274.97.1
– Net Position:-56,154-79,303135,457
– Gross Longs:252,5951,444,016279,072
– Gross Shorts:308,7491,523,319143,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.423.790.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.45.8-9.1

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.564.716.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.469.214.3
– Net Position:1,734-3,7692,035
– Gross Longs:14,70354,45514,096
– Gross Shorts:12,96958,22412,061
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.132.866.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.413.6-21.5

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.050.915.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.566.810.9
– Net Position:30,691-42,75812,067
– Gross Longs:85,687136,28541,209
– Gross Shorts:54,996179,04329,142
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.77.677.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.44.71.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.677.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.875.84.4
– Net Position:-22,0356,38715,648
– Gross Longs:49,368328,98934,288
– Gross Shorts:71,403322,60218,640
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.927.968.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.817.6-19.9

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.473.020.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.951.516.6
– Net Position:-3,0632,586477
– Gross Longs:7678,7652,473
– Gross Shorts:3,8306,1791,996
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.144.552.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.17.0-7.9

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.587.62.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.081.81.7
– Net Position:-28,51525,4943,021
– Gross Longs:41,888384,81510,617
– Gross Shorts:70,403359,3217,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.256.932.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.16.8-43.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News
26 Jan

Speculators raise New Zealand Dollar bets after drop to all-time low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (16,366 contracts), the Japanese Yen (14,738 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,335 contracts), the US Dollar Index (2,143 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (866 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (743 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,695 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-7,541 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,136 contracts), the EuroFX (-2,089 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise New Zealand Dollar bets after drop to all-time low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand ‘Kiwi’ Dollar.

Large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions rose modestly this week by +866 net contracts and have gained for two consecutive weeks. This follows significant weakness in the position over the past few months. The NZD spec position had declined for the previous five straight weeks and for thirteen out of the prior fourteen weeks for a total decline of -56,594 contracts over that period dating back to October.

This NZD weakness of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2025 dropped the NZD speculator position into the lowest or most bearish level on record at -54,624 contracts on January 7th – surpassing the previous lows in 2019.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline in tandem with the drop in speculator bets, particularly since September. The NZDUSD started to slide in September and fell through the 0.6000 exchange level in November and continued to fall in December and into January, dropping all the way to the 0.5540 level in early January. This marked the lowest standing for the NZDUSD since October 2022.

This week, the NZD bounced higher by over 2.00 percent and managed to close above the 0.5700 exchange rate for the first time since early December.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (68 percent) and Bitcoin (67 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the EuroFX (5 percent), the Swiss Franc (16 percent) and the Brazilian Real (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.1 percent)
EuroFX (5.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (36.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (67.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (61.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (25.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (21.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (28.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (31.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.0 percent)
Bitcoin (67.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.4 percent)

US Dollar Index & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (38 percent) and Bitcoin (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (14 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-57 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-27 percent), Brazilian Real (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (32.7 percent)
EuroFX (5.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-1.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-15.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-16.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-3.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-56.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-70.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-27.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.6 percent)
Bitcoin (31.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.024.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.560.75.4
– Net Position:14,872-16,5201,648
– Gross Longs:28,81111,2474,133
– Gross Shorts:13,93927,7672,485
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.561.540.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.5-36.43.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -62,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.555.612.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.848.39.4
– Net Position:-62,48644,29518,191
– Gross Longs:167,665338,71975,560
– Gross Shorts:230,151294,42457,369
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.096.313.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.0-3.6-5.9

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.652.610.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.539.119.9
– Net Position:-8,25728,749-20,492
– Gross Longs:75,696111,96821,903
– Gross Shorts:83,95383,21942,395
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.472.819.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.920.2-32.1

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.532.520.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.428.417.9
– Net Position:-14,6738,8295,844
– Gross Longs:94,15768,86843,642
– Gross Shorts:108,83060,03937,798
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.831.777.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.212.316.9

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.884.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.224.325.1
– Net Position:-41,83757,758-15,921
– Gross Longs:6,52681,1608,255
– Gross Shorts:48,36323,40224,176
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.5 to 10.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.193.611.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.98.95.9

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -150,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.984.08.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.334.811.9
– Net Position:-150,787163,078-12,291
– Gross Longs:19,503278,53527,246
– Gross Shorts:170,290115,45739,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.483.35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.8-13.55.5

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -71,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.467.012.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.925.017.2
– Net Position:-71,29679,799-8,503
– Gross Longs:31,179127,37524,195
– Gross Shorts:102,47547,57632,698
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.777.526.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-56.648.0-2.0

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.985.83.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.426.46.8
– Net Position:-51,22353,841-2,618
– Gross Longs:8,93877,7763,551
– Gross Shorts:60,16123,9356,169
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.096.320.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.025.113.0

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,997 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.960.52.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.958.83.4
– Net Position:-1,5442,423-879
– Gross Longs:47,98585,7633,886
– Gross Shorts:49,52983,3404,765
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.075.417.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.44.9

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -34,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.469.62.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.822.64.3
– Net Position:-34,13135,292-1,161
– Gross Longs:20,60552,3032,046
– Gross Shorts:54,73617,0113,207
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.782.314.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.817.0-2.1

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,335 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.54.23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.66.83.2
– Net Position:739-1,007268
– Gross Longs:29,1211,6251,486
– Gross Shorts:28,3822,6321,218
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.438.330.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.8-31.0-16.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
26 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (21,421 contracts) with Copper (4,825 contracts), Silver (1,400 contracts), Steel (649 contracts) and Palladium (294 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a decrease by -952 contracts.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (94 percent) and Steel (89 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (94.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.3 percent)
Silver (76.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (74.4 percent)
Copper (48.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.3 percent)
Platinum (50.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (52.8 percent)
Palladium (43.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (40.9 percent)
Steel (89.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.7 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Silver (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.5 percent)
Silver (8.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.6 percent)
Copper (5.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.6 percent)
Palladium (-14.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.7 percent)
Steel (5.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 300,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 279,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.016.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.473.84.3
– Net Position:300,784-326,60825,824
– Gross Longs:337,28995,11650,638
– Gross Shorts:36,505421,72424,814
– Long to Short Ratio:9.2 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.54.764.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-10.716.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.320.917.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.660.37.8
– Net Position:47,480-62,97715,497
– Gross Longs:75,66033,47627,898
– Gross Shorts:28,18096,45312,401
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.124.845.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-3.5-15.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.933.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.243.85.3
– Net Position:16,663-21,7295,066
– Gross Longs:88,85573,47016,520
– Gross Shorts:72,19295,19911,454
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.851.748.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-4.2-5.2

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.319.412.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.046.75.0
– Net Position:14,608-20,6106,002
– Gross Longs:48,60514,6519,765
– Gross Shorts:33,99735,2613,763
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.546.756.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.56.0-38.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.445.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.66.77.9
– Net Position:-8,0367,326710
– Gross Longs:7,1218,5932,213
– Gross Shorts:15,1571,2671,503
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 16.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.156.267.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.715.8-10.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.667.11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.061.90.7
– Net Position:-1,5341,45777
– Gross Longs:7,22318,936281
– Gross Shorts:8,75717,479204
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.511.240.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-5.58.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
26 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, Live Cattle & Gold lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 74,291 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 1,649 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.5 this week. The speculator position registered 118,732 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -4,553 contracts in speculator bets.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Gold speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 300,784 net contracts this week with a gain by 21,421 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 24,456 net contracts this week with a boost of 24,404 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 89.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.3 this week.

The speculator position was -1,534 net contracts this week with a rise of 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -31,467 net contracts this week with a drop of -45,629 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.0 this week. The speculator position was -51,223 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -39,951 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,210 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.0 this week. The speculator position was -62,486 net contracts this week with a decline by -2,089 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 9.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,796,191 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -18,570 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
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