COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 5

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (50,742 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,970 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-15,096 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,952 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-3,151 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (88 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (81 percent) and VIX (81 percent) come in right behind them as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (81.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (81.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (76.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (16.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)

S&P500-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (22 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) is the only other positive mover (just barely) in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-10.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (27.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-21.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -16,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,572 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	41.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-16,668	13,017	3,651
– Gross Longs:	87,632	141,435	30,551
– Gross Shorts:	104,300	128,418	26,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	19.0	93.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	5.4	21.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 113,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 50,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	67.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	78.6	7.1
– Net Position:	113,440	-233,202	119,762
– Gross Longs:	374,881	1,448,167	272,336
– Gross Shorts:	261,441	1,681,369	152,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	7.7	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.2	-23.9	11.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	50.7	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	70.6	13.9
– Net Position:	12,931	-17,117	4,186
– Gross Longs:	24,195	43,814	16,160
– Gross Shorts:	11,264	60,931	11,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	13.4	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	2.5	4.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 16,092 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	57.2	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.1	10.7
– Net Position:	16,092	-27,658	11,566
– Gross Longs:	62,784	144,580	38,511
– Gross Shorts:	46,692	172,238	26,945
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	22.2	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	1.9	-3.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	72.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	77.5	4.0
– Net Position:	8,792	-23,537	14,745
– Gross Longs:	80,594	324,134	32,917
– Gross Shorts:	71,802	347,671	18,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	9.5	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	7.9	0.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -48,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.2	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	80.1	1.2
– Net Position:	-48,823	42,004	6,819
– Gross Longs:	36,603	414,178	12,337
– Gross Shorts:	85,426	372,174	5,518
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	79.8	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	15.7	-9.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, AUD, 5-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 71,441 net contracts this week with an increase by 10,363 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 30.0 this week. The speculator position registered 30,976 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 3,460 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 94.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 12.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -414 net contracts this week with a dip by -261 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 88.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -264,408 net contracts this week with a gain of 45,626 contracts in the speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level sits at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week.

The speculator position was 8,792 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,767,409 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -86,938 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,486,359 net contracts this week with a drop by -6,998 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 95 net contracts this week with a decrease by -1,589 contracts in the speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level is at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.7 this week. The speculator position was -803 net contracts this week with a small gain of 175 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

Finally, the Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 9.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -49.1 this week. The speculator position was -175,229 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,730 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

03 Nov

Currency Speculators continue to shed Euro bets for 5th week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,148 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (773 contracts) also coming through with a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-37,588 contracts), the EuroFX (-21,780 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-26,868 contracts), the British Pound (-8,220 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,844 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,464 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,344 contracts), Bitcoin (-224 contracts) and with the Australian Dollar (-163 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators continue to shed Euro bets for 5th week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is sharp decrease in bets for the Euro currency speculators. Large speculators have dropped their Euro positions for a fifth consecutive week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks through Tuesday.

The Euro spec positions have fallen by -122,002 net contracts in just these last five weeks. This weakness has brought the overall positioning from +71,698 contracts on September 24th to this week’s standing of -50,304 contracts and the lowest level for Euro bets since March 3rd of 2020, a span of 243 weeks.

Helping to dampen the Euro’s appeal is the recent rate reduction by the European Central Bank (ECB). Citing a decline in inflation, the ECB trimmed the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.50 percent to 3.26 percent on October 17th and believes the “disinflationary process is well on track“.

The Euro exchange rate versus the US Dollar had touched a yearly high in September at the 1.1249 exchange level. Since then, however, the Euro declined for four straight weeks and fell through the major support/resistance level of 1.10 and then through the 1.09 threshold as well. Currently, the Euro currency is trading right around the 1.0857 level with historical support sitting below at 1.08.

More Speculator positions:

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index speculator positions perked up a bit this week by +773 contracts and rose for a second straight week. The USD standing is in a small bullish position after falling into a bearish level on October 8th and 15th.

The Japanese yen speculator bets dropped sharply for a second straight week and have now fallen for five straight weeks overall. This has brought the yen positioning back into a bearish level after bets had been in a bullish standing for eleven consecutive weeks.

Canadian dollar speculator positions also continued to drop and fell for the fifth consecutive week. The CAD speculator bets have decreased by a total of -101,910 contracts in just these last five weeks and brings the current position (at a total of -167,499 contracts) to the fourth most bearish standing on record.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (96 percent) and the leads the currency markets this week. The British Pound (66 percent) and the Japanese Yen (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (8 percent), Bitcoin (11 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are .

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (65.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (63.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (12.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (95.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (95.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (49.4 percent)
Bitcoin (10.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.4 percent)

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (48 percent) and the Brazilian Real (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-42 percent), Swiss Franc (-34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-0.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-41.0 percent)
EuroFX (-50.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-46.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-7.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-32.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-34.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-32.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (13.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-19.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-28.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	18.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	22.9	10.6
– Net Position:	1,684	-1,329	-355
– Gross Longs:	21,825	6,126	3,093
– Gross Shorts:	20,141	7,455	3,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	91.4	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-2.8	16.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -50,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	60.7	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	56.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,304	31,448	18,856
– Gross Longs:	159,313	401,671	73,780
– Gross Shorts:	209,617	370,223	54,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.5	54.1	-59.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,220 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.9	21.9	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	55.5	11.1
– Net Position:	66,356	-74,301	7,945
– Gross Longs:	132,636	48,596	32,508
– Gross Shorts:	66,280	122,897	24,563
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	31.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	2.2	-18.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	53.6	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	41.2	17.5
– Net Position:	-24,817	28,082	-3,265
– Gross Longs:	64,925	121,136	36,292
– Gross Shorts:	89,742	93,054	39,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	38.8	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.6	36.7	-44.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	77.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	24.4	23.5
– Net Position:	-33,998	41,676	-7,678
– Gross Longs:	7,092	60,942	10,855
– Gross Shorts:	41,090	19,266	18,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	67.4	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	39.0	-32.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -167,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	80.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	27.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-167,499	174,266	-6,767
– Gross Longs:	27,399	266,311	28,068
– Gross Shorts:	194,898	92,045	34,835
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.9	87.9	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	43.7	-34.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	31.4	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	52.0	11.0
– Net Position:	27,516	-37,858	10,342
– Gross Longs:	93,677	57,807	30,644
– Gross Shorts:	66,161	95,665	20,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.8	7.4	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.0	-41.6	5.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	48.0	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	41.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-2,167	3,607	-1,440
– Gross Longs:	26,077	27,850	3,672
– Gross Shorts:	28,244	24,243	5,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.7	62.2	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	7.1	-45.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,148 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	46.3	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	67.7	4.7
– Net Position:	35,045	-31,575	-3,470
– Gross Longs:	71,127	68,246	3,511
– Gross Shorts:	36,082	99,821	6,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	53.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-12.0	-12.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	48.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	40.8	5.7
– Net Position:	-4,269	4,392	-123
– Gross Longs:	24,784	28,361	3,205
– Gross Shorts:	29,053	23,969	3,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	53.3	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-26.2	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.3	6.0	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.9	2.3	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,869	1,242	627
– Gross Longs:	28,156	2,019	1,441
– Gross Shorts:	30,025	777	814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	94.4	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	16.1	13.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Platinum, Australian Dollar & Steel lead Bullish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 29th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Platinum

The Platinum speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Platinum speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 32.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 35,543 net contracts this week with an increase by 667 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is now at a 95.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 48.0 this week. The speculator position registered 27,516 net contracts this week with a weekly dip by -163 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 95.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 14.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -153 net contracts this week with a rise by 925 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,572 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,597 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 94.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 62.2 this week.

The speculator position was 61,078 net contracts this week after a boost of 11,584 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -278,023 net contracts this week following a drop by -28,806 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week. The speculator position was -16,458 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,636 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,479,361 net contracts this week after a decrease by -98,451 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.5 this week. The speculator position was -50,304 net contracts this week following a drop by -21,780 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,680,471 net contracts this week with a change of -39,484 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

03 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Palladium & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium (2,627 contracts) with Steel (925 contracts) and Platinum (667 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-17,551 contracts), Copper (-8,716 contracts) and with Silver (-5,924 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (100 percent) and Steel (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (86 percent) and Palladium (84 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (86.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (92.7 percent)
Silver (92.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (55.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (63.5 percent)
Platinum (100.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (98.4 percent)
Palladium (84.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.8 percent)
Steel (95.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (92.2 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (33 percent) and Platinum (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores and is currently the only market with a lower trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-11.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.3 percent)
Copper (3.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.3 percent)
Platinum (32.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.8 percent)
Palladium (33.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.3 percent)
Steel (14.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 278,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 296,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	11.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	64.3	4.9
– Net Position:	278,653	-303,671	25,018
– Gross Longs:	366,636	68,935	53,432
– Gross Shorts:	87,983	372,606	28,414
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.0	13.0	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.3	-0.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.0	19.3	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	71.9	6.6
– Net Position:	60,431	-82,212	21,781
– Gross Longs:	79,649	30,224	32,166
– Gross Shorts:	19,218	112,436	10,385
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	3.5	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-5.4	13.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	34.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	48.3	4.0
– Net Position:	23,739	-34,239	10,500
– Gross Longs:	96,844	85,290	20,362
– Gross Shorts:	73,105	119,529	9,862
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.3	40.9	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-7.4	27.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	15.4	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	63.4	4.1
– Net Position:	35,543	-41,451	5,908
– Gross Longs:	57,500	13,326	9,413
– Gross Shorts:	21,957	54,777	3,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.1	-32.3	13.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	44.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	35.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-2,453	1,636	817
– Gross Longs:	6,578	7,893	2,397
– Gross Shorts:	9,031	6,257	1,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	15.7	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-39.9	50.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	67.6	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	67.6	0.6
– Net Position:	-153	5	148
– Gross Longs:	7,521	18,979	310
– Gross Shorts:	7,674	18,974	162
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.7	4.6	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.4	2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

03 Nov

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds (32,269 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (19,020 contracts) and the Fed Funds (17,490 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-98,451 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-52,992 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-39,312 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-39,484 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-28,806 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-86 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (83 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (83.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (79.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (36.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (44.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (67.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (52.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (7.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (57.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.6 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-37 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-24 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-4.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-23.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-16.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-38.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-24.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-27.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-37.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-41.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 153,705 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 17,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	57.2	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	63.1	2.7
– Net Position:	153,705	-130,471	-23,234
– Gross Longs:	469,542	1,263,935	37,401
– Gross Shorts:	315,837	1,394,406	60,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	18.3	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	4.6	-0.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -52,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -86 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	57.9	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	57.3	0.5
– Net Position:	-52,149	64,149	-12,000
– Gross Longs:	1,476,990	5,917,930	40,674
– Gross Shorts:	1,529,139	5,853,781	52,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	42.9	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.1	38.3	-11.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -278,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -28,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	69.4	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	48.6	0.1
– Net Position:	-278,023	278,649	-626
– Gross Longs:	132,190	930,913	413
– Gross Shorts:	410,213	652,264	1,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	23.1	27.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,479,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -98,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,380,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	80.0	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	50.9	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,479,361	1,318,151	161,210
– Gross Longs:	545,677	3,620,929	268,615
– Gross Shorts:	2,025,038	2,302,778	107,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.8	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	33.1	0.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,680,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,640,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	84.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	60.2	4.1
– Net Position:	-1,680,471	1,493,749	186,722
– Gross Longs:	458,688	5,255,655	441,574
– Gross Shorts:	2,139,159	3,761,906	254,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.5	100.0	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.5	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -901,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -848,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	77.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	60.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-901,183	790,410	110,773
– Gross Longs:	429,078	3,583,452	478,912
– Gross Shorts:	1,330,261	2,793,042	368,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	75.5	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-18.8	-8.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -103,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -39,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	73.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	65.1	13.4
– Net Position:	-103,034	183,187	-80,153
– Gross Longs:	353,210	1,614,142	214,437
– Gross Shorts:	456,244	1,430,955	294,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	54.8	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	20.9	-11.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	63.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	65.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-54,817	-33,079	87,896
– Gross Longs:	417,193	1,159,696	219,436
– Gross Shorts:	472,010	1,192,775	131,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	17.7	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-10.2	-16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 32,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -342,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.2	10.5
– Net Position:	-310,034	307,659	2,375
– Gross Longs:	160,892	1,396,250	188,474
– Gross Shorts:	470,926	1,088,591	186,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	47.5	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	39.5	-61.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

03 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (65,464 contracts) with Live Cattle (8,955 contracts) and Lean Hogs (11,584 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-41,343 contracts), Soybeans (-13,765 contracts), Sugar (-10,708 contracts), Wheat (-5,809 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,687 contracts), Cotton (-4,504 contracts), Cocoa (-3,578 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,003 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (94 percent) and Coffee (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Live Cattle (67 percent) and Wheat (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (31 percent) and the Soybean Meal (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (44.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (36.1 percent)
Sugar (30.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (34.4 percent)
Coffee (89.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (90.5 percent)
Soybeans (24.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (79.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (38.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (94.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.8 percent)
Cotton (22.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.1 percent)
Cocoa (48.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (51.8 percent)
Wheat (53.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.8 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (62 percent) and Live Cattle (55 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (40 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Soybeans (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-6 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.6 percent)
Coffee (-4.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (15.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.1 percent)
Live Cattle (55.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (42.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (62.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.1 percent)
Cotton (9.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.1 percent)
Cocoa (3.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	45.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	47.9	10.9
– Net Position:	83,304	-36,852	-46,452
– Gross Longs:	405,262	769,258	137,217
– Gross Shorts:	321,958	806,110	183,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	57.6	46.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-18.7	-11.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	49.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	63.2	5.8
– Net Position:	82,843	-117,480	34,637
– Gross Longs:	222,539	420,265	83,668
– Gross Shorts:	139,696	537,745	49,031
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	62.7	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-11.0	36.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	40.2	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	71.8	2.7
– Net Position:	65,301	-68,034	2,733
– Gross Longs:	77,119	86,446	8,468
– Gross Shorts:	11,818	154,480	5,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.5	10.5	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	5.3	-10.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	58.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	45.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-92,060	106,992	-14,932
– Gross Longs:	145,891	487,281	53,315
– Gross Shorts:	237,951	380,289	68,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	75.2	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-12.0	15.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	48.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	62.1	4.8
– Net Position:	64,345	-69,705	5,360
– Gross Longs:	153,757	259,002	30,638
– Gross Shorts:	89,412	328,707	25,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	28.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.1	-37.7	12.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -41,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	45.1	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	54.2	4.9
– Net Position:	27,125	-54,016	26,891
– Gross Longs:	138,571	266,467	55,890
– Gross Shorts:	111,446	320,483	28,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	56.3	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	3.0	38.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 81,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	32.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	49.1	13.8
– Net Position:	81,729	-57,730	-23,999
– Gross Longs:	148,416	115,375	24,653
– Gross Shorts:	66,687	173,105	48,652
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	51.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	55.3	-48.2	-44.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	30.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	46.9	9.0
– Net Position:	61,078	-54,210	-6,868
– Gross Longs:	149,265	100,600	22,724
– Gross Shorts:	88,187	154,810	29,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	2.2	52.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	62.2	-67.3	-15.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	48.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	43.5	5.6
– Net Position:	-11,861	12,964	-1,103
– Gross Longs:	65,551	127,371	13,618
– Gross Shorts:	77,412	114,407	14,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	78.9	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-7.0	-15.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.8	38.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	72.7	3.4
– Net Position:	37,398	-44,582	7,184
– Gross Longs:	50,995	50,903	11,681
– Gross Shorts:	13,597	95,485	4,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	47.3	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-5.0	11.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -22,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	38.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	31.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-22,891	31,600	-8,709
– Gross Longs:	106,934	161,596	30,120
– Gross Shorts:	129,825	129,996	38,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	49.0	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	8.5	-13.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

03 Nov

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Nasdaq Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (39,717 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,462 contracts) also showing a rising week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-6,844 contracts), the VIX (-5,597 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-2,611 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-143 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (90 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (76 percent) and S&P500-Mini (74 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (68.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (76.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (43.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (90.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (94.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (31.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (6 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6 percent) and the VIX (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the DowJones-Mini (-8 percent) with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (17.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (27.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-21.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-35.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-5.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	40.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	40.8	7.8
– Net Position:	-1,572	-2,596	4,168
– Gross Longs:	95,529	129,726	29,505
– Gross Shorts:	97,101	132,322	25,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	5.8	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-11.8	37.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	68.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	76.3	7.3
– Net Position:	62,698	-177,608	114,910
– Gross Longs:	366,915	1,476,451	272,342
– Gross Shorts:	304,217	1,654,059	157,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	15.4	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-29.7	13.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	53.3	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	67.7	14.6
– Net Position:	9,625	-12,902	3,277
– Gross Longs:	23,118	47,980	16,452
– Gross Shorts:	13,493	60,882	13,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	19.5	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	4.5	11.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	59.4	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	65.7	11.1
– Net Position:	5,122	-16,238	11,116
– Gross Longs:	57,891	152,916	39,683
– Gross Shorts:	52,769	169,154	28,567
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	34.7	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	18.3	-4.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	71.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	77.8	4.0
– Net Position:	11,943	-27,139	15,196
– Gross Longs:	78,765	313,576	32,828
– Gross Shorts:	66,822	340,715	17,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	7.3	80.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-7.0	8.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.6	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	82.1	2.0
– Net Position:	-34,871	31,843	3,028
– Gross Longs:	31,027	379,781	11,564
– Gross Shorts:	65,898	347,938	8,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	69.2	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-2.4	-17.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

20 Oct

Currency Speculators continue to reduce US Dollar Index, Canadian Dollar bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains was the Brazilian Real (4,836 contracts) which came through as the only currency having a positive week this week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-33,242 contracts), the EuroFX (-21,948 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-14,153 contracts), the British Pound (-7,333 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,947 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,702 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-2,418 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,573 contracts), Bitcoin (-590 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-211 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators continue to reduce US Dollar Index, Canadian Dollar bets

This week’s COT currency’s data saw speculators continue to drop their US Dollar Index bets as well as their wagers for the Canadian Dollar.

The USD Index speculative position has fallen for five consecutive weeks and by a total of -22,310 contracts over the last five weeks. This weakness has now dropped the current USD Index speculator position (at -2,100 contracts) to the most bearish level since June 15th of 2021, a span of 174 weeks. This can also be seen in the speculator strength index score for the USD Index which is at 0 percent or in other words, the weakest speculator level of the past three years.

The average speculator contract position over 2024 has dipped to a weekly average of +6,528 contracts through Tuesday. This follows the weekly average of +12,782 contracts over the course of 2023. The 2022 year was a very strong Dollar environment and the USD Index speculator contracts averaged a total of +33,606 contracts per week over the course of that year.

Despite the erosion of the large speculator sentiment, the US Dollar Index (DX) price has increased for three straight weeks and closed the week around 103.30. Previously at the end of September, the price had fallen to the 100.00 level where it found support and bounced rather strongly. Since that strong support, the USD has sailed through the 102.50-103.00 level and the next overhead resistance for the USD coming up is the 104.50-105.00 levels.

The Canadian dollar saw the largest decrease in speculator bets for all the currencies this week. The weaker sentiment coincides with declining oil prices as well as with the expectation the Bank of Canada will be potentially reducing their interest rate by 50 basis points in the coming week. This week’s speculator standing for the CAD is the 10th most bearish level on record at a total of -122,393 net contracts. The all-time record low of -196,263 contracts took place not to long ago on July 30th of 2024.

The CAD exchange rate against the USD has fallen for three straight weeks and is starting to reach the lowest levels of the past few years. Currently, the CAD price (CADUSD or CAD futures) is trading at 0.7254 with a major support level residing close below at 0.7200. This level has provided support three times since 2022 and most recently was tested and rejected in August.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (90 percent) and the Japanese Yen (87 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (75 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (28 percent), the Canadian Dollar (33 percent) and the Bitcoin (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.4 percent)
EuroFX (27.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (37.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (78.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (87.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (88.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (90.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (40.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (43.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (47.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (42.6 percent)
Bitcoin (38.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (47.1 percent)

Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (43 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The US Dollar Index (-46 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-35 percent), Bitcoin (-30 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-45.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-44.2 percent)
EuroFX (-35.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-22.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-24.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (43.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.5	19.1	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.2	6.6	15.3
– Net Position:	-2,100	3,011	-911
– Gross Longs:	15,352	4,607	2,792
– Gross Shorts:	17,452	1,596	3,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.7	41.2	6.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	58.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	65.6	7.6
– Net Position:	17,150	-48,975	31,825
– Gross Longs:	169,319	382,899	82,051
– Gross Shorts:	152,169	431,874	50,226
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	70.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	34.6	-22.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.7	22.0	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	61.7	9.6
– Net Position:	85,802	-99,448	13,646
– Gross Longs:	151,923	54,936	37,756
– Gross Shorts:	66,121	154,384	24,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.7	21.8	90.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	8.6	1.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	34.7	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	53.2	17.8
– Net Position:	34,110	-36,639	2,529
– Gross Longs:	86,685	68,697	37,699
– Gross Shorts:	52,575	105,336	35,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	15.0	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.7	-7.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	73.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.9	27.1	22.2
– Net Position:	-26,161	30,369	-4,208
– Gross Longs:	6,834	48,275	10,505
– Gross Shorts:	32,995	17,906	14,713
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	49.0	57.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.3	-12.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -122,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.7	34.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-122,393	123,906	-1,513
– Gross Longs:	36,718	226,425	29,024
– Gross Shorts:	159,111	102,519	30,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	67.1	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	25.5	-23.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	29.2	18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.3	48.9	8.4
– Net Position:	19,269	-38,078	18,809
– Gross Longs:	99,051	56,412	34,998
– Gross Shorts:	79,782	94,490	16,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	7.3	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-18.6	10.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	45.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	47.1	5.9
– Net Position:	-292	-1,122	1,414
– Gross Longs:	25,079	24,748	4,646
– Gross Shorts:	25,371	25,870	3,232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	53.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.9	-12.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	50.6	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	67.6	4.1
– Net Position:	25,246	-23,735	-1,511
– Gross Longs:	60,759	70,382	4,237
– Gross Shorts:	35,513	94,117	5,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	57.6	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	1.9	7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	53.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.5	43.0	5.0
– Net Position:	-5,143	4,952	191
– Gross Longs:	18,703	26,105	2,645
– Gross Shorts:	23,846	21,153	2,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	53.9	21.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.3	-29.8	-78.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,282 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	6.8	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.0	2.5	2.9
– Net Position:	-1,872	1,466	406
– Gross Longs:	26,758	2,332	1,405
– Gross Shorts:	28,630	866	999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	100.0	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.8	45.3	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

19 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,254 contracts) with Platinum (4,730 contracts), Palladium (619 contracts), and Steel (159 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-7,574 contracts) with Silver (-683 contracts) registering lower bets on the week as well.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (94 percent) and Steel (90 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (89 percent) and Gold (89 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Palladium (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but remains higher than its 3-Year midpoint (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (89.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.9 percent)
Silver (89.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.0 percent)
Copper (66.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (73.4 percent)
Platinum (93.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (81.2 percent)
Palladium (52.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (48.4 percent)
Steel (90.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.4 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Palladium (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-0.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the only negative trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.2 percent)
Silver (10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.4 percent)
Copper (21.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.2 percent)
Platinum (72.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.2 percent)
Palladium (36.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (33.3 percent)
Steel (8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 286,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 278,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.1	12.9	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	70.7	4.5
– Net Position:	286,434	-312,658	26,224
– Gross Longs:	357,494	70,028	50,490
– Gross Shorts:	71,060	382,686	24,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.0	9.7	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-0.3	6.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 54,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	21.1	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	74.5	7.0
– Net Position:	54,032	-75,758	21,726
– Gross Longs:	70,024	29,913	31,621
– Gross Shorts:	15,992	105,671	9,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.1	10.1	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-12.5	15.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	31.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	49.7	4.1
– Net Position:	35,522	-45,219	9,697
– Gross Longs:	99,036	75,372	19,752
– Gross Shorts:	63,514	120,591	10,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	31.5	76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-22.6	22.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,657 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.8	19.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	66.8	3.7
– Net Position:	28,387	-34,539	6,152
– Gross Longs:	46,523	14,171	8,855
– Gross Shorts:	18,136	48,710	2,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.8	0.0	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	72.1	-64.7	-40.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	58.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	24.0	7.4
– Net Position:	-6,698	6,032	666
– Gross Longs:	4,537	10,294	1,987
– Gross Shorts:	11,235	4,262	1,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	47.0	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.2	-39.9	31.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,801 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	69.9	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	64.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-1,642	1,281	361
– Gross Longs:	5,668	17,562	481
– Gross Shorts:	7,310	16,281	120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	4.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	9.5	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.7	50.9

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