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Archive for COT Updates – Page 5

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (50,952 contracts) with Soybeans (12,802 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,666 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,090 contracts), Coffee (2,229 contracts), Sugar (2,033 contracts) and Live Cattle (312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-18,102 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,915 contracts), Cotton (-2,477 contracts) and with Cocoa (-497 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (90 percent), Lean Hogs (79 percent) and Soybean Oil (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (2 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (83.9 percent)
Sugar (0.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (97.8 percent)
Soybeans (54.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (62.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.7 percent)
Live Cattle (95.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (78.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.9 percent)
Cotton (2.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.2 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (48.2 percent)
Wheat (4.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.2 percent)


Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (33 percent) and Corn (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (14 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Soybean Oil (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-21 percent), Cotton (-11 percent) and Wheat (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (28.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (-31.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-41.4 percent)
Coffee (13.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.8 percent)
Soybeans (33.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (8.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-21.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.6 percent)
Cotton (-10.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cocoa (1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.5 percent)
Wheat (-9.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.9 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 443,875 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 50,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 392,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.239.46.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.857.410.4
– Net Position:443,875-355,959-87,916
– Gross Longs:617,299780,449117,958
– Gross Shorts:173,4241,136,408205,874
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.415.20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.3-24.6-44.7

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.054.06.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.051.56.6
– Net Position:-29,43425,7463,688
– Gross Longs:230,941541,54469,367
– Gross Shorts:260,375515,79865,679
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.797.524.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.428.5-10.6

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 76,520 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.129.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.870.74.0
– Net Position:76,520-80,7054,185
– Gross Longs:85,90257,11711,978
– Gross Shorts:9,382137,8227,793
– Long to Short Ratio:9.2 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.081.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-14.39.8

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.255.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.555.48.9
– Net Position:31,3513,608-34,959
– Gross Longs:182,713482,19242,015
– Gross Shorts:151,362478,58476,974
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.049.621.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.2-30.1-50.2

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.454.55.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.964.14.5
– Net Position:48,167-53,8935,726
– Gross Longs:115,448308,19331,027
– Gross Shorts:67,281362,08625,301
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.836.336.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-9.517.5

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.550.58.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.749.35.5
– Net Position:-24,5086,91617,592
– Gross Longs:95,385292,58249,507
– Gross Shorts:119,893285,66631,915
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.480.534.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-5.8-26.1

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 119,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.727.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.351.413.9
– Net Position:119,044-92,602-26,442
– Gross Longs:202,150108,43627,836
– Gross Shorts:83,106201,03854,278
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.99.55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-5.6-12.1

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.433.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.354.69.2
– Net Position:66,061-61,847-4,214
– Gross Longs:123,796101,49323,441
– Gross Shorts:57,735163,34027,655
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.918.052.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.115.952.2

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.449.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.835.45.0
– Net Position:-42,42839,9292,499
– Gross Longs:64,766137,71416,275
– Gross Shorts:107,19497,78513,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.594.531.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.77.721.0

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,968 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -497 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.536.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.571.14.6
– Net Position:36,968-43,2976,329
– Gross Longs:49,95044,47112,017
– Gross Shorts:12,98287,7685,688
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.749.666.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.7-1.3-3.9

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -91,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.135.57.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.518.16.6
– Net Position:-91,11186,2894,822
– Gross Longs:133,872175,75437,566
– Gross Shorts:224,98389,46532,744
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.890.183.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.34.335.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (19,561 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (12,202 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,676 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-21,385 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-1,008 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-593 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-305 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (67 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (46 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (51.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (63.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (86.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (67.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (66.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (54.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (46.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (42.7 percent)


MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-9 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (15.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-26.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-14.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (4.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-17.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.349.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.234.28.1
– Net Position:-49,44550,961-1,516
– Gross Longs:63,710164,19025,270
– Gross Shorts:113,155113,22926,786
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.651.371.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.42.3-9.3

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -56,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.471.013.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.274.97.1
– Net Position:-56,154-79,303135,457
– Gross Longs:252,5951,444,016279,072
– Gross Shorts:308,7491,523,319143,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.423.790.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.45.8-9.1

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -593 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.564.716.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.469.214.3
– Net Position:1,734-3,7692,035
– Gross Longs:14,70354,45514,096
– Gross Shorts:12,96958,22412,061
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.132.866.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.413.6-21.5

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.050.915.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.566.810.9
– Net Position:30,691-42,75812,067
– Gross Longs:85,687136,28541,209
– Gross Shorts:54,996179,04329,142
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.77.677.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.44.71.9

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.677.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.875.84.4
– Net Position:-22,0356,38715,648
– Gross Longs:49,368328,98934,288
– Gross Shorts:71,403322,60218,640
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.927.968.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.817.6-19.9

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.473.020.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.951.516.6
– Net Position:-3,0632,586477
– Gross Longs:7678,7652,473
– Gross Shorts:3,8306,1791,996
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.144.552.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.17.0-7.9

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.587.62.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.081.81.7
– Net Position:-28,51525,4943,021
– Gross Longs:41,888384,81510,617
– Gross Shorts:70,403359,3217,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.256.932.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.16.8-43.7

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculators raise New Zealand Dollar bets after drop to all-time low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (16,366 contracts), the Japanese Yen (14,738 contracts), the Australian Dollar (6,335 contracts), the US Dollar Index (2,143 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (866 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (743 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,695 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-7,541 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,136 contracts), the EuroFX (-2,089 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-596 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise New Zealand Dollar bets after drop to all-time low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand ‘Kiwi’ Dollar.

Large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions rose modestly this week by +866 net contracts and have gained for two consecutive weeks. This follows significant weakness in the position over the past few months. The NZD spec position had declined for the previous five straight weeks and for thirteen out of the prior fourteen weeks for a total decline of -56,594 contracts over that period dating back to October.

This NZD weakness of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2025 dropped the NZD speculator position into the lowest or most bearish level on record at -54,624 contracts on January 7th – surpassing the previous lows in 2019.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline in tandem with the drop in speculator bets, particularly since September. The NZDUSD started to slide in September and fell through the 0.6000 exchange level in November and continued to fall in December and into January, dropping all the way to the 0.5540 level in early January. This marked the lowest standing for the NZDUSD since October 2022.

This week, the NZD bounced higher by over 2.00 percent and managed to close above the 0.5700 exchange rate for the first time since early December.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (68 percent) and Bitcoin (67 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the EuroFX (5 percent), the Swiss Franc (16 percent) and the Brazilian Real (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.1 percent)
EuroFX (5.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (5.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (36.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (67.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (61.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (20.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (25.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (21.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (28.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (31.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (19.0 percent)
Bitcoin (67.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.4 percent)


US Dollar Index & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (38 percent) and Bitcoin (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (14 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-57 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-27 percent), Brazilian Real (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (32.7 percent)
EuroFX (5.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-1.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-15.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-8.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-16.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-3.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-56.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-70.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-27.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.6 percent)
Bitcoin (31.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.9 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.024.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.560.75.4
– Net Position:14,872-16,5201,648
– Gross Longs:28,81111,2474,133
– Gross Shorts:13,93927,7672,485
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.561.540.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.5-36.43.8

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -62,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.555.612.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.848.39.4
– Net Position:-62,48644,29518,191
– Gross Longs:167,665338,71975,560
– Gross Shorts:230,151294,42457,369
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.096.313.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.0-3.6-5.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.652.610.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.539.119.9
– Net Position:-8,25728,749-20,492
– Gross Longs:75,696111,96821,903
– Gross Shorts:83,95383,21942,395
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.472.819.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.920.2-32.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.532.520.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.428.417.9
– Net Position:-14,6738,8295,844
– Gross Longs:94,15768,86843,642
– Gross Shorts:108,83060,03937,798
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.831.777.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.212.316.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.884.28.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.224.325.1
– Net Position:-41,83757,758-15,921
– Gross Longs:6,52681,1608,255
– Gross Shorts:48,36323,40224,176
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.5 to 10.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.193.611.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.98.95.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -150,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.984.08.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.334.811.9
– Net Position:-150,787163,078-12,291
– Gross Longs:19,503278,53527,246
– Gross Shorts:170,290115,45739,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.483.35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.8-13.55.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -71,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.467.012.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.925.017.2
– Net Position:-71,29679,799-8,503
– Gross Longs:31,179127,37524,195
– Gross Shorts:102,47547,57632,698
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.777.526.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-56.648.0-2.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.985.83.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.426.46.8
– Net Position:-51,22353,841-2,618
– Gross Longs:8,93877,7763,551
– Gross Shorts:60,16123,9356,169
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.096.320.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.025.113.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,997 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.960.52.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.958.83.4
– Net Position:-1,5442,423-879
– Gross Longs:47,98585,7633,886
– Gross Shorts:49,52983,3404,765
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.075.417.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.44.9

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -34,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.469.62.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.822.64.3
– Net Position:-34,13135,292-1,161
– Gross Longs:20,60552,3032,046
– Gross Shorts:54,73617,0113,207
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.782.314.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.817.0-2.1

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,335 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.54.23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.66.83.2
– Net Position:739-1,007268
– Gross Longs:29,1211,6251,486
– Gross Shorts:28,3822,6321,218
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.438.330.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.8-31.0-16.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (21,421 contracts) with Copper (4,825 contracts), Silver (1,400 contracts), Steel (649 contracts) and Palladium (294 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a decrease by -952 contracts.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (94 percent) and Steel (89 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (94.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.3 percent)
Silver (76.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (74.4 percent)
Copper (48.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.3 percent)
Platinum (50.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (52.8 percent)
Palladium (43.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (40.9 percent)
Steel (89.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.7 percent)

 


Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Silver (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.5 percent)
Silver (8.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.6 percent)
Copper (5.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.6 percent)
Palladium (-14.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.7 percent)
Steel (5.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 300,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 279,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.016.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.473.84.3
– Net Position:300,784-326,60825,824
– Gross Longs:337,28995,11650,638
– Gross Shorts:36,505421,72424,814
– Long to Short Ratio:9.2 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.54.764.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-10.716.4

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.320.917.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.660.37.8
– Net Position:47,480-62,97715,497
– Gross Longs:75,66033,47627,898
– Gross Shorts:28,18096,45312,401
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.124.845.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-3.5-15.4

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.933.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.243.85.3
– Net Position:16,663-21,7295,066
– Gross Longs:88,85573,47016,520
– Gross Shorts:72,19295,19911,454
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.851.748.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-4.2-5.2

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.319.412.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.046.75.0
– Net Position:14,608-20,6106,002
– Gross Longs:48,60514,6519,765
– Gross Shorts:33,99735,2613,763
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.546.756.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.56.0-38.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.445.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.66.77.9
– Net Position:-8,0367,326710
– Gross Longs:7,1218,5932,213
– Gross Shorts:15,1571,2671,503
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 16.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.156.267.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.715.8-10.3

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.667.11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.061.90.7
– Net Position:-1,5341,45777
– Gross Longs:7,22318,936281
– Gross Shorts:8,75717,479204
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.511.240.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-5.58.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, Live Cattle & Gold lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 21st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)



Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 74,291 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 1,649 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.5 this week. The speculator position registered 118,732 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -4,553 contracts in speculator bets.


Gold


The Gold speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Gold speculator level resides at a 94.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 300,784 net contracts this week with a gain by 21,421 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 24,456 net contracts this week with a boost of 24,404 contracts in the speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 89.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.3 this week.

The speculator position was -1,534 net contracts this week with a rise of 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.



This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -31,467 net contracts this week with a drop of -45,629 contracts in the speculator bets.


New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.0 this week. The speculator position was -51,223 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -39,951 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,210 contracts in the speculator bets.


Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.0 this week. The speculator position was -62,486 net contracts this week with a decline by -2,089 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 9.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,796,191 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -18,570 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (82,829 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (48,520 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (43,118 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (24,404 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,434 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-32,292 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-18,570 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-12,310 contracts) and with the Fed Funds (-4,075 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (92 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (87 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (77 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (19 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (20.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (53.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (54.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (29.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (38.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (92.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (83.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (86.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (77.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (23.0 percent)


10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (28 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-18.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-29.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (30.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-18.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-5.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (25.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (26.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-17.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-9.5 percent)


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -190,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.070.91.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.260.62.0
– Net Position:-190,795194,312-3,517
– Gross Longs:187,4011,329,52733,875
– Gross Shorts:378,1961,135,21537,392
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.477.478.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.918.05.8

 


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -672,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 48,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -720,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.362.60.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.956.00.2
– Net Position:-672,329664,9387,391
– Gross Longs:1,234,1116,304,51028,896
– Gross Shorts:1,906,4405,639,57221,505
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.574.091.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.817.09.4

 


Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 43,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.859.60.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.462.10.0
– Net Position:35,594-35,351-243
– Gross Longs:360,259866,138165
– Gross Shorts:324,665901,489408
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.322.954.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.8-25.80.6

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,174,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 82,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,257,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.276.86.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.451.92.9
– Net Position:-1,174,3771,034,903139,474
– Gross Longs:547,5403,191,555260,164
– Gross Shorts:1,721,9172,156,652120,690
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.376.680.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-6.2-0.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,796,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,777,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.985.06.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.057.94.9
– Net Position:-1,796,1911,671,310124,881
– Gross Longs:362,7685,245,706424,184
– Gross Shorts:2,158,9593,574,396299,303
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.987.976.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-0.73.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -580,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -567,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.875.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.063.48.6
– Net Position:-580,245565,04015,205
– Gross Longs:654,1813,575,799422,956
– Gross Shorts:1,234,4263,010,759407,751
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.348.067.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.9-30.6-10.1

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -172,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -32,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.575.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.166.012.0
– Net Position:-172,524221,503-48,979
– Gross Longs:306,0921,721,192223,196
– Gross Shorts:478,6161,499,689272,175
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.749.581.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.723.74.1

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.764.011.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.568.77.7
– Net Position:24,456-90,69966,243
– Gross Longs:456,1881,230,439214,843
– Gross Shorts:431,7321,321,138148,600
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.00.064.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.3-19.7-3.2

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -229,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -242,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.281.49.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.068.69.8
– Net Position:-229,988229,344644
– Gross Longs:147,4111,459,353175,998
– Gross Shorts:377,3991,230,009175,354
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.518.311.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.216.8-32.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (44,848 contracts) with Wheat (9,200 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,098 contracts), Soybeans (4,031 contracts), Coffee (1,649 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,428 contracts) and Cocoa (605 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-45,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-6,566 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,553 contracts) and Cotton (-4,210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (98 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (84 percent), Lean Hogs (82 percent) and Soybean Oil (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (83.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (78.2 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (14.7 percent)
Coffee (98.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.7 percent)
Soybeans (50.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (62.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.1 percent)
Live Cattle (95.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (81.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (87.0 percent)
Cotton (4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.0 percent)
Cocoa (48.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.6 percent)
Wheat (19.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.9 percent)


Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Corn (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (15 percent) and Coffee (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Cotton (-14 percent) and Wheat (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.8 percent)
Sugar (-41.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.8 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 392,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 44,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.241.76.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.057.910.2
– Net Position:392,923-314,101-78,822
– Gross Longs:587,335810,136120,226
– Gross Shorts:194,4121,124,237199,048
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.920.83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.5-17.3-50.2

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -45,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.354.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.550.77.3
– Net Position:-31,46734,888-3,421
– Gross Longs:231,219538,36169,175
– Gross Shorts:262,686503,47372,596
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.015.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.440.7-28.7

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.029.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.671.53.7
– Net Position:74,291-78,5264,235
– Gross Longs:83,01156,21711,170
– Gross Shorts:8,720134,7436,935
– Long to Short Ratio:9.5 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.30.382.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-13.018.4

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.956.74.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.855.08.5
– Net Position:18,54914,875-33,424
– Gross Longs:187,255484,41739,381
– Gross Shorts:168,706469,54272,805
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.952.425.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.7-21.7-44.5

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.055.55.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.162.55.0
– Net Position:38,501-39,7321,231
– Gross Longs:123,527311,69829,376
– Gross Shorts:85,026351,43028,145
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.543.318.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.45.4-25.8

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.449.78.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.548.05.5
– Net Position:-28,5989,97418,624
– Gross Longs:99,189282,71050,002
– Gross Shorts:127,787272,73631,378
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.781.739.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.32.0-25.2

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 118,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,285 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.728.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.452.314.5
– Net Position:118,732-90,810-27,922
– Gross Longs:192,157107,10626,966
– Gross Shorts:73,425197,91654,888
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.611.70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-15.6-10.5

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 69,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.732.97.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.653.99.4
– Net Position:69,976-63,497-6,479
– Gross Longs:126,35899,83122,147
– Gross Shorts:56,382163,32828,626
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.916.638.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.614.031.0

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.648.95.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.434.75.1
– Net Position:-39,95138,3351,616
– Gross Longs:66,257131,97315,453
– Gross Shorts:106,20893,63813,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.293.526.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.811.79.0

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.537.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.473.04.1
– Net Position:37,465-44,2436,778
– Gross Longs:50,40846,55211,924
– Gross Shorts:12,94390,7955,146
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.248.669.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-0.61.1

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.433.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.919.26.6
– Net Position:-73,00968,8654,144
– Gross Longs:138,911159,61835,248
– Gross Shorts:211,92090,75331,104
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.276.179.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.93.750.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (7,955 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (881 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (60 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-45,173 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-19,932 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,166 contracts) and with the VIX (-1,330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (71 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (68 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (68 percent) and DowJones-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (70.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (60.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (64.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (67.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (55.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (42.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (48.1 percent)


VIX tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-17 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-29.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (7.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-17.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.045.411.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.738.410.6
– Net Position:-28,06025,4292,631
– Gross Longs:65,618165,57641,409
– Gross Shorts:93,678140,14738,778
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.929.688.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-17.313.2

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -75,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -45,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.071.413.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.774.47.0
– Net Position:-75,715-60,433136,148
– Gross Longs:263,8151,453,774279,487
– Gross Shorts:339,5301,514,207143,339
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.526.591.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.10.9-5.5

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.465.117.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.571.913.6
– Net Position:2,327-5,5643,237
– Gross Longs:13,37753,19014,317
– Gross Shorts:11,05058,75411,080
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.130.273.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.215.6-11.9

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.153.217.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.867.610.1
– Net Position:18,489-36,65418,165
– Gross Longs:71,503135,40243,768
– Gross Shorts:53,014172,05625,603
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.814.289.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.514.27.4

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.676.78.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.476.14.3
– Net Position:-21,0272,54718,480
– Gross Longs:50,530334,23537,263
– Gross Shorts:71,557331,68818,783
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.625.576.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.916.5-22.6

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 60 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.670.221.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.945.320.7
– Net Position:-2,7582,70949
– Gross Longs:9377,6472,305
– Gross Shorts:3,6954,9382,256
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.745.444.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.820.3-40.5

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.688.22.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.781.81.8
– Net Position:-31,19127,8993,292
– Gross Longs:37,252384,14611,192
– Gross Shorts:68,443356,2477,900
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.759.733.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.118.4-10.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculators continue to raise US Dollar Index Bets into 2025

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were just slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (11,436 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (4,084 contracts), the EuroFX (3,727 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,535 contracts) and Bitcoin (145 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-14,068 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-9,222 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,198 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,394 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,897 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-813 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators continue to raise US Dollar Index Bets into 2025

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increase in the speculator’s positioning for the US Dollar Index that’s carried over from December into the new year. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions rose this week by over 4,000+ contracts and have now gained for five consecutive weeks. This recent rise in speculator sentiment has been carried over each week from December 17th to January 14th for a total +15,953 net contract boost over the 5-week period.

This has pushed the overall bullish speculator position above the +10,000 contract threshold for the first time since September 10th. The Dollar Index bets, previously, had spent a total of seven weeks in October, November and early December in bearish or negative contract territory before finally turning around in mid-December.

The Dollar Index futures price (DX) was slightly lower to close this week but overall the trend has been higher for the DX. Since the last short-term bottom on the weekly charts in September – the DX has advanced by over 9 percent and broken through previous resistance areas from 107.50 to 109.00. Currently, the Dollar Index price is sitting right around the 109.40 level with the weekly RSI signaling a slightly overbought level of 70.10.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (80 percent) and the Japanese Yen (62 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (3 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent), the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (33.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (24.6 percent)
EuroFX (5.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (42.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (61.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (65.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (31.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.8 percent)
Bitcoin (80.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)


Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The Australian Dollar (-70 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-34 percent), Brazilian Real (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (32.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (23.7 percent)
EuroFX (-1.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-3.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-8.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (1.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-70.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-74.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-33.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.1 percent)
Bitcoin (63.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (52.1 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.524.08.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.755.25.4
– Net Position:12,729-14,2881,559
– Gross Longs:29,51210,9784,033
– Gross Shorts:16,78325,2662,474
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.165.939.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.7-31.73.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -60,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.956.412.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.948.410.0
– Net Position:-60,39748,33712,060
– Gross Longs:162,760341,02572,682
– Gross Shorts:223,157292,68860,622
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.897.70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.14.7-24.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.147.010.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.939.518.5
– Net Position:43814,985-15,423
– Gross Longs:80,55794,31321,817
– Gross Shorts:80,11979,32837,240
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.367.329.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.59.5-10.7

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.839.318.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.025.518.7
– Net Position:-29,41131,023-1,612
– Gross Longs:91,43488,11340,268
– Gross Shorts:120,84557,09041,880
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.939.959.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.711.51.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -813 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.083.77.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.223.826.5
– Net Position:-38,70156,343-17,642
– Gross Longs:7,55778,6907,316
– Gross Shorts:46,25822,34724,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.5 to 10.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.591.34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.84.9-22.8

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.683.67.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.331.811.9
– Net Position:-167,153181,481-14,328
– Gross Longs:23,031292,95727,533
– Gross Shorts:190,184111,47641,861
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.090.80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.56.6-21.6

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -77,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.669.912.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.024.417.2
– Net Position:-77,63187,297-9,666
– Gross Longs:26,135134,23923,314
– Gross Shorts:103,76646,94232,980
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.282.023.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-70.365.3-27.8

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.983.83.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.424.46.7
– Net Position:-52,08954,644-2,555
– Gross Longs:10,92177,1443,632
– Gross Shorts:63,01022,5006,187
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.097.220.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.733.1-1.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.054.52.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.857.14.2
– Net Position:5,997-3,765-2,232
– Gross Longs:57,18877,8423,823
– Gross Shorts:51,19181,6076,055
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.872.310.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.00.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.168.02.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.820.74.3
– Net Position:-34,87436,067-1,193
– Gross Longs:19,95151,8992,111
– Gross Shorts:54,82515,8323,304
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.083.014.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.616.30.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,190 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.73.73.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.98.03.2
– Net Position:1,335-1,520185
– Gross Longs:28,9661,3301,304
– Gross Shorts:27,6312,8501,119
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.425.524.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:63.9-63.9-27.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Coffee, NZD & Euro lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 14th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


 


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 25.3 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 123,285 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,740 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is now at a 96.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.8 this week. The speculator position registered 72,642 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 8,508 contracts in speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -0.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,183 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 414 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 87.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 76,542 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,797 contracts in the speculator bets.


Gold


The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 86.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.5 this week.

The speculator position was 279,363 net contracts this week with a rise of 24,452 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.



This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,089 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,535 contracts in the speculator bets.


Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 5.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.1 this week. The speculator position was -60,397 net contracts this week with a move up by 3,727 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 6.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 14,162 net contracts this week with a drop of -35,665 contracts in the speculator bets.


Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 7.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.9 this week. The speculator position was -35,741 net contracts this week with a decline by -3,657 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 10.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position was -1,777,621 net contracts this week with a boost of 23,282 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.