COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 47

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (147,378 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (122,184 contracts), the Fed Funds (89,836 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (62,572 contracts) and US Treasury Bonds (46,218 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-69,613 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,704 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,065 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	10,262,756	96	283,813	87	-284,065	13	252	88
FedFunds	2,014,709	90	-205,834	25	226,924	78	-21,090	50
2-Year	4,207,274	100	-1,424,312	0	1,297,860	100	126,452	96
Long T-Bond	1,366,758	80	-136,238	40	92,123	43	44,115	81
10-Year	4,626,649	84	-563,362	28	467,001	65	96,361	94
5-Year	5,571,039	91	-1,008,903	18	946,801	79	62,102	87

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (87 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (40 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (38 percent) come in as the next highest in the strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (5.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (13.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (37.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (38.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (87.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (83.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-20 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-4.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-9.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-19.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (5.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-2.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-3.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 283,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 62,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 221,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	56.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	59.0	0.4
– Net Position:	283,813	-284,065	252
– Gross Longs:	2,097,645	5,767,009	39,391
– Gross Shorts:	1,813,832	6,051,074	39,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	12.6	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	1.8	1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -205,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 89,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -295,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	74.8	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	63.5	2.7
– Net Position:	-205,834	226,924	-21,090
– Gross Longs:	160,615	1,506,971	33,662
– Gross Shorts:	366,449	1,280,047	54,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	78.0	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	6.8	-21.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,424,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -69,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,354,699 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	82.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	51.2	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,424,312	1,297,860	126,452
– Gross Longs:	429,978	3,452,942	267,147
– Gross Shorts:	1,854,290	2,155,082	140,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	12.6	6.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,008,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 122,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,131,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	82.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	65.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-1,008,903	946,801	62,102
– Gross Longs:	524,737	4,567,066	395,064
– Gross Shorts:	1,533,640	3,620,265	332,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	78.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-0.6	-3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -563,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 147,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -710,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	77.0	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	66.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-563,362	467,001	96,361
– Gross Longs:	542,324	3,562,693	438,802
– Gross Shorts:	1,105,686	3,095,692	342,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	65.3	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-29.0	15.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -249,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	77.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.0	13.5
– Net Position:	-249,869	304,036	-54,167
– Gross Longs:	194,392	1,523,392	212,339
– Gross Shorts:	444,261	1,219,356	266,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.4	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	15.1	19.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -136,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 46,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	77.0	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	70.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-136,238	92,123	44,115
– Gross Longs:	93,736	1,051,787	189,136
– Gross Shorts:	229,974	959,664	145,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	43.5	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-21.6	3.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -363,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	82.9	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	61.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-363,546	338,820	24,726
– Gross Longs:	92,655	1,288,162	170,435
– Gross Shorts:	456,201	949,342	145,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	64.2	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-2.4	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

29 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was a big jump by the S&P500-Mini (73,363 contracts) with the VIX (1,351 contracts), the Russell-Mini (1,301 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (127 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were led this week by the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,651 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,280 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-749 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,158,452	17	10,185	66	-34,736	35	24,551	47
Nikkei 225	15,326	14	-2,128	52	695	40	1,433	46
Nasdaq-Mini	253,055	39	2,697	43	-4,366	39	1,669	74
DowJones-Mini	104,581	72	-35,960	0	39,649	99	-3,689	26
VIX	344,318	44	-21,594	95	26,058	3	-4,464	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	53,712	42	7,280	57	9,599	37	-16,879	53

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) were the leaders for the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (52 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) was at the lowest strength level and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the VIX (12 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-19 percent) coming in as the next lowest market.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (11.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-51.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-52.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	47.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	40.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-21,594	26,058	-4,464
– Gross Longs:	88,500	163,682	24,682
– Gross Shorts:	110,094	137,624	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.3	2.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-9.4	-18.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	72.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	74.0	10.4
– Net Position:	10,185	-34,736	24,551
– Gross Longs:	282,604	1,562,074	248,407
– Gross Shorts:	272,419	1,596,810	223,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	35.1	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-16.8	-1.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	65.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	27.1	13.9
– Net Position:	-35,960	39,649	-3,689
– Gross Longs:	25,159	68,034	10,893
– Gross Shorts:	61,119	28,385	14,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.1	47.8	-20.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	57.7	14.3
– Net Position:	2,697	-4,366	1,669
– Gross Longs:	69,019	141,589	37,947
– Gross Shorts:	66,322	145,955	36,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	39.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	6.6	3.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	79.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	71.2	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,171	44,537	-366
– Gross Longs:	72,617	413,481	23,620
– Gross Shorts:	116,788	368,944	23,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.5	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-8.1	-15.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	70.2	24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	65.6	14.7
– Net Position:	-2,128	695	1,433
– Gross Longs:	884	10,754	3,688
– Gross Shorts:	3,012	10,059	2,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.8	40.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	9.8	12.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	82.7	2.2
– Net Position:	-30,499	28,700	1,799
– Gross Longs:	25,471	352,594	10,247
– Gross Shorts:	55,970	323,894	8,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	75.4	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-24.6	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (30,388 contracts) with Coffee (18,396 contracts), Corn (14,274 contracts), Soybeans (9,349 contracts), Wheat (9,296 contracts and Cocoa (5,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-21,450 contracts) with Cotton (-10,557 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,666 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,806 contracts) and Sugar (-3,264 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,628,044	21	300,765	41	-340,958	59	40,193	60
Gold	463,476	19	149,385	43	-165,873	60	16,488	22
Silver	123,980	12	24,332	53	-34,570	52	10,238	23
Copper	224,704	62	-20,760	13	21,401	89	-641	14
Palladium	22,459	100	-11,240	2	11,085	98	155	51
Platinum	84,610	93	-480	14	-4,832	83	5,312	39
Natural Gas	1,211,450	51	-70,272	47	51,221	57	19,051	25
Brent	127,094	8	-38,171	37	34,548	63	3,623	60
Heating Oil	322,791	45	31,988	81	-51,471	28	19,483	63
Soybeans	814,726	63	36,454	5	-24,483	88	-11,971	75
Corn	1,401,898	27	-48,280	11	83,034	90	-34,754	83
Coffee	199,646	18	18,208	46	-18,113	58	-95	11
Sugar	857,661	38	224,695	72	-271,696	26	47,001	64
Wheat	435,685	86	-59,947	24	56,978	74	2,969	80

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent), Coffee (46 percent) and Live Cattle (40 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (5 percent), Corn (11 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (71.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.1 percent)
Coffee (46.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (27.2 percent)
Soybeans (5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.7 percent)
Live Cattle (40.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.4 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (33.7 percent)
Cocoa (88.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (82.9 percent)
Wheat (24.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.6 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (36 percent) and Soybean Meal (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-22 percent), Soybeans (-19 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.5 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (35.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.7 percent)
Soybeans (-18.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-23.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-38.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.2 percent)
Cotton (-21.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	46.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	40.7	12.4
– Net Position:	-48,280	83,034	-34,754
– Gross Longs:	283,037	653,322	139,285
– Gross Shorts:	331,317	570,288	174,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	89.6	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-5.5	-7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 224,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	38.2	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	69.9	5.3
– Net Position:	224,695	-271,696	47,001
– Gross Longs:	320,884	328,055	92,632
– Gross Shorts:	96,189	599,751	45,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	26.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	8.0	-8.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	42.7	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	51.8	5.2
– Net Position:	18,208	-18,113	-95
– Gross Longs:	55,113	85,251	10,332
– Gross Shorts:	36,905	103,364	10,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	57.9	11.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.7	-33.7	-10.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	54.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	57.3	8.5
– Net Position:	36,454	-24,483	-11,971
– Gross Longs:	135,138	442,219	57,078
– Gross Shorts:	98,684	466,702	69,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	88.4	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	15.2	11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	48.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	55.6	6.1
– Net Position:	31,139	-33,462	2,323
– Gross Longs:	98,579	225,469	30,536
– Gross Shorts:	67,440	258,931	28,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	65.3	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	11.8	-29.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 106,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 30,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	38.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	63.7	6.1
– Net Position:	106,326	-126,450	20,124
– Gross Longs:	131,878	189,965	50,190
– Gross Shorts:	25,552	316,415	30,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	39.1	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.8	5.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 56,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	34.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.3	12.3
– Net Position:	56,857	-49,115	-7,742
– Gross Longs:	102,832	96,618	26,491
– Gross Shorts:	45,975	145,733	34,233
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	62.7	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.5	35.3	36.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	39.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	28.9	10.1
– Net Position:	-20,721	20,671	50
– Gross Longs:	54,414	76,966	19,814
– Gross Shorts:	75,135	56,295	19,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	88.8	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	14.2	18.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	49.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	60.1	4.3
– Net Position:	22,680	-26,215	3,535
– Gross Longs:	64,477	116,370	13,814
– Gross Shorts:	41,797	142,585	10,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	72.6	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	23.0	-32.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	26.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.3	3.9
– Net Position:	77,020	-79,960	2,940
– Gross Longs:	128,611	83,207	14,982
– Gross Shorts:	51,591	163,167	12,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	11.7	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	11.6	-9.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	34.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	21.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-59,947	56,978	2,969
– Gross Longs:	121,807	150,412	38,208
– Gross Shorts:	181,754	93,434	35,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	74.5	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	8.4	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Oct

Currency Speculators continue to pare Euro Bullish Bets to 49-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the New Zealand Dollar (7,531 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (4,828 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (2,057 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (1,079 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-22,349 contracts) with the EuroFX (-19,456 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-7,627 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-7,455 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,476 contracts) and Bitcoin (-738 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Spotlight: Large Currency Traders continue to pare Euro Bullish Bets to 49-Week Low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued weakness in the Euro Currency speculator positioning. Large speculative Euro positions fell sharply this week by over -19,000 contracts and dropped for a seventh consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now declined in ten out of the past eleven weeks with a total decline of -99,889 contracts over these past eleven weeks.

This rapid cooling of the speculator bets has now taken the net position from a total of +178,832 contracts on July 18th to a total of +78,943 contracts through Tuesday. This brings the current level to the lowest standing in the past 49-weeks, dating back to October 25th of 2022.

Helping put a dampener on the Euro speculative position has been the likely end of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate hiking activity. The ECB recently raised their interest rate in September for a 10th straight meeting to 4 percent. However, the market expectation is that the rate hiking campaign is over for now which combined with subdued growth in the Eurozone puts a limited expectation for strength in the currency.

The Euro currency (EURUSD) spot price (vesus the US Dollar), however, did manage to eke out a small gain this week after falling for eleven straight weeks and touching the lowest level of the year under 1.0500. The EURUSD rebounded off the psychological level of 1.0500 this week and saw gains on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to close the week right near the 1.0625 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,340	41	18,815	56	-20,166	44	1,351	22
EUR	702,433	39	78,943	54	-104,752	50	25,809	20
GBP	241,045	62	-6,680	51	17,545	56	-10,865	37
JPY	282,682	98	-113,988	2	117,869	93	-3,881	46
CHF	58,673	100	-16,742	11	27,368	89	-10,626	23
CAD	189,443	53	-40,151	17	38,581	82	1,570	26
AUD	207,782	64	-81,987	14	97,266	90	-15,279	15
NZD	52,291	62	-7,650	35	10,717	69	-3,067	13
MXN	212,539	42	64,514	79	-67,248	21	2,734	29
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,033	27	16,637	57	-17,643	43	1,006	44
Bitcoin	14,447	65	1,056	82	-1,475	0	419	22

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (82 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) currently lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (57 percent), the US Dollar Index (56 percent) and the EuroFX (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (2 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.9 percent)
EuroFX (53.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (62.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (10.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (17.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (35.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (78.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (76.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (55.6 percent)
Bitcoin (82.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.4 percent)

US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies and is the only currency with a positive 6-week trend.

The British Pound (-46 percent) leads the downside trend scores with the Swiss Franc (-35 percent), EuroFX (-34 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-26 percent) following.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (23.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (19.6 percent)
EuroFX (-34.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-26.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-45.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-24.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-14.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-30.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-5.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-13.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-6.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.3	19.6	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	67.3	7.5
– Net Position:	18,815	-20,166	1,351
– Gross Longs:	28,057	8,313	4,530
– Gross Shorts:	9,242	28,479	3,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	43.7	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.7	-23.1	4.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 78,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.1	55.3	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	70.2	8.1
– Net Position:	78,943	-104,752	25,809
– Gross Longs:	211,783	388,473	82,432
– Gross Shorts:	132,840	493,225	56,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	50.0	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	35.8	-25.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	56.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	49.0	14.7
– Net Position:	-6,680	17,545	-10,865
– Gross Longs:	73,911	135,637	24,678
– Gross Shorts:	80,591	118,092	35,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	55.5	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.7	46.1	-32.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -113,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	68.7	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.1	27.0	14.7
– Net Position:	-113,988	117,869	-3,881
– Gross Longs:	47,544	194,193	37,744
– Gross Shorts:	161,532	76,324	41,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	93.2	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	6.5	11.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	65.6	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.5	18.9	33.5
– Net Position:	-16,742	27,368	-10,626
– Gross Longs:	11,143	38,468	9,030
– Gross Shorts:	27,885	11,100	19,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.7	89.1	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	39.4	-32.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	67.3	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	46.9	18.6
– Net Position:	-40,151	38,581	1,570
– Gross Longs:	21,674	127,502	36,889
– Gross Shorts:	61,825	88,921	35,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.1	82.4	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	15.3	12.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	68.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.5	21.8	17.3
– Net Position:	-81,987	97,266	-15,279
– Gross Longs:	39,465	142,572	20,690
– Gross Shorts:	121,452	45,306	35,969
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	90.4	15.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	15.4	-5.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	64.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	43.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-7,650	10,717	-3,067
– Gross Longs:	15,895	33,651	2,497
– Gross Shorts:	23,545	22,934	5,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.5	69.1	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	3.4	-4.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	53.7	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	85.4	1.5
– Net Position:	64,514	-67,248	2,734
– Gross Longs:	90,848	114,185	5,986
– Gross Shorts:	26,334	181,433	3,252
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	21.3	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.4	-0.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.0	31.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	74.9	4.6
– Net Position:	16,637	-17,643	1,006
– Gross Longs:	25,029	13,086	2,888
– Gross Shorts:	8,392	30,729	1,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	43.0	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	6.0	-31.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.8	1.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.5	11.3	5.4
– Net Position:	1,056	-1,475	419
– Gross Longs:	11,964	161	1,195
– Gross Shorts:	10,908	1,636	776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	29.1	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	12.4	0.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,867 contracts) with Steel (732 contracts) and Palladium (584 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-24,589 contracts) with Silver (-4,761 contracts) and Platinum (-4,710 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	431,226	4	91,226	17	-111,982	81	20,756	32
Silver	125,847	14	15,344	40	-30,358	57	15,014	50
Copper	208,795	49	-21,912	12	19,952	88	1,960	31
Palladium	18,421	86	-9,718	9	9,861	93	-143	33
Platinum	81,529	85	2,616	22	-7,514	78	4,898	34

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (9 percent), Copper (12 percent) and Gold (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (17.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (28.0 percent)
Silver (40.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.9 percent)
Copper (11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.0 percent)
Platinum (21.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.5 percent)
Palladium (8.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (65.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.9 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (4 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-6 percent), Gold (-5 percent) and Palladium (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-2.3 percent)
Silver (3.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.5 percent)
Copper (2.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.7 percent)
Platinum (4.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.0 percent)
Steel (-5.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 91,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -24,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.0	25.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	51.6	5.7
– Net Position:	91,226	-111,982	20,756
– Gross Longs:	228,406	110,666	45,256
– Gross Shorts:	137,180	222,648	24,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.7	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	3.5	4.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	30.0	22.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	54.1	10.6
– Net Position:	15,344	-30,358	15,014
– Gross Longs:	51,405	37,769	28,386
– Gross Shorts:	36,061	68,127	13,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	57.1	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-7.9	22.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	41.1	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	31.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-21,912	19,952	1,960
– Gross Longs:	69,273	85,785	15,950
– Gross Shorts:	91,185	65,833	13,990
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	88.2	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-2.1	-1.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.8	27.5	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	36.8	4.8
– Net Position:	2,616	-7,514	4,898
– Gross Longs:	45,496	22,452	8,772
– Gross Shorts:	42,880	29,966	3,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	77.9	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-2.5	-7.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	59.9	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.5	6.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-9,718	9,861	-143
– Gross Longs:	4,007	11,038	1,588
– Gross Shorts:	13,725	1,177	1,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	9.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	93.3	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	1.1	11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	85.9	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	56.4	1.7
– Net Position:	-5,487	5,606	-119
– Gross Longs:	1,560	16,354	214
– Gross Shorts:	7,047	10,748	333
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	35.4	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	5.7	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

08 Oct

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by 2-Year & 5-Year Notes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the 2-Year & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds with an increase by 5,305 contracts also showing positive on the week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-68,001 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-67,690 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-46,781 contracts), the Fed Funds (-34,081 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-24,840 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,835 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-1,883 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,830,949	92	292,306	88	-291,835	12	-471	88
FedFunds	1,665,599	60	-229,159	17	244,663	84	-15,504	61
2-Year	3,959,247	99	-1,278,301	0	1,141,551	100	136,750	100
Long T-Bond	1,409,347	93	-239,646	7	210,303	86	29,343	70
10-Year	4,782,725	93	-733,881	11	668,481	88	65,400	88
5-Year	5,630,744	93	-1,093,472	12	1,027,244	85	66,228	88

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent), the 5-Year Bond (12 percent) and the Fed Funds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and all are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (23.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (11.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (33.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (87.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.1 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-18 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-0.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-3.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-17.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-19.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (25.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (14.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.8 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 292,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 317,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	54.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	57.7	0.5
– Net Position:	292,306	-291,835	-471
– Gross Longs:	2,090,851	5,381,526	43,842
– Gross Shorts:	1,798,545	5,673,361	44,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	12.1	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.6	1.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -229,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	75.5	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	60.8	2.9
– Net Position:	-229,159	244,663	-15,504
– Gross Longs:	127,197	1,258,150	33,455
– Gross Shorts:	356,356	1,013,487	48,959
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	84.4	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.9	-6.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,278,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -68,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,210,300 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	80.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	51.8	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,278,301	1,141,551	136,750
– Gross Longs:	426,432	3,192,262	280,084
– Gross Shorts:	1,704,733	2,050,711	143,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-0.1	3.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,093,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -67,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,025,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	82.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	64.5	6.0
– Net Position:	-1,093,472	1,027,244	66,228
– Gross Longs:	505,566	4,657,206	403,076
– Gross Shorts:	1,599,038	3,629,962	336,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	85.3	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	3.3	2.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -733,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -731,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	64.0	7.8
– Net Position:	-733,881	668,481	65,400
– Gross Longs:	492,060	3,728,771	440,265
– Gross Shorts:	1,225,941	3,060,290	374,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	88.3	87.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	1.2	6.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -244,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -46,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -198,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	77.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	62.2	13.8
– Net Position:	-244,907	285,820	-40,913
– Gross Longs:	165,441	1,462,117	220,058
– Gross Shorts:	410,348	1,176,297	260,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.4	89.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	7.0	35.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -239,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	80.2	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	65.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-239,646	210,303	29,343
– Gross Longs:	79,998	1,130,603	186,481
– Gross Shorts:	319,644	920,300	157,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	85.6	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	26.0	-9.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -368,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -373,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	81.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	60.5	9.6
– Net Position:	-368,142	333,000	35,142
– Gross Longs:	96,190	1,278,994	184,419
– Gross Shorts:	464,332	945,994	149,277
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	61.4	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-29.5	-2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

08 Oct

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Heating Oil, Dow-Mini & 2-Year lead COT Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 94.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -4.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -34,193 net contracts this week with a change of 18,642 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 93.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was -3.9 this week. The speculator position registered 38,946 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -3,181 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 87.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 14.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 292,306 net contracts this week with a change of -24,840 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 5.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -5,136 net contracts this week with a change of 1 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bitcoin speculator level sits at a 82.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.9 this week.

The speculator position was 1,056 net contracts this week with a change of -738 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -42.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -32,447 net contracts this week with a change of -10,829 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,278,301 net contracts this week with a change of -68,001 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -244,907 net contracts this week with a change of -46,781 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.8 this week. The speculator position was 22,503 net contracts this week with a change of -23,985 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.4 this week. The speculator position was -107,544 net contracts this week with a change of 10,996 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Cotton & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (10,996 contracts) with Cotton (10,382 contracts) and Soybean Oil (2,936 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-23,985 contracts) with Sugar (-21,858 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,769 contracts), Live Cattle (-8,766 contracts), Cocoa (-8,605 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-6,998 contracts), Coffee (-5,787 contracts) and Wheat (-1,333 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,787,495	35	349,560	53	-381,946	50	32,386	45
Gold	431,226	4	91,226	17	-111,982	81	20,756	32
Silver	125,847	14	15,344	40	-30,358	57	15,014	50
Copper	208,795	49	-21,912	12	19,952	88	1,960	31
Palladium	18,421	86	-9,718	9	9,861	93	-143	33
Platinum	81,529	85	2,616	22	-7,514	78	4,898	34
Natural Gas	1,174,386	44	-79,200	40	61,763	64	17,437	22
Brent	118,926	0	-36,543	41	35,921	65	622	18
Heating Oil	330,825	48	38,946	93	-66,348	5	27,402	93
Soybeans	803,439	49	22,503	0	-5,880	95	-16,623	64
Corn	1,367,904	23	-107,544	2	140,803	98	-33,259	86
Coffee	210,215	25	-14,449	13	13,474	89	975	24
Sugar	820,468	30	217,382	68	-255,129	32	37,747	52
Wheat	429,333	83	-61,347	23	58,242	76	3,105	82

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (81 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (68 percent), Cotton (52 percent) and Soybean Oil (48 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (0 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Coffee (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (1.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (67.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (75.5 percent)
Coffee (12.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.5 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (47.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (37.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (48.5 percent)
Live Cattle (72.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (81.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (22.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (28.0 percent)
Cotton (52.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (44.7 percent)
Cocoa (81.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (90.1 percent)
Wheat (23.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.1 percent)

Cotton & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (17 percent) and Sugar (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (9 percent), Live Cattle (6 percent) and Lean Hogs (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-17 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Corn (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-8.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.7 percent)
Sugar (11.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.9 percent)
Coffee (8.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybeans (-16.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-7.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (5.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.1 percent)
Cotton (16.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.3 percent)
Cocoa (-7.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.4 percent)
Wheat (-18.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-20.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -107,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	49.2	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	38.9	12.5
– Net Position:	-107,544	140,803	-33,259
– Gross Longs:	281,318	672,709	137,063
– Gross Shorts:	388,862	531,906	170,322
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.4	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.7	21.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 217,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	39.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	70.1	5.8
– Net Position:	217,382	-255,129	37,747
– Gross Longs:	305,051	320,294	85,730
– Gross Shorts:	87,669	575,423	47,983
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	31.7	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.8	8.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	45.8	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	39.4	4.3
– Net Position:	-14,449	13,474	975
– Gross Longs:	53,926	96,217	10,119
– Gross Shorts:	68,375	82,743	9,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	89.3	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-8.9	4.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	50.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	51.6	8.6
– Net Position:	22,503	-5,880	-16,623
– Gross Longs:	123,800	408,742	52,183
– Gross Shorts:	101,297	414,622	68,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.8	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	14.6	3.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	46.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	61.4	5.0
– Net Position:	50,941	-60,657	9,716
– Gross Longs:	96,922	195,665	30,768
– Gross Shorts:	45,981	256,322	21,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	51.2	49.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.7	-2.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 64,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	43.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	60.5	5.9
– Net Position:	64,775	-78,589	13,814
– Gross Longs:	104,312	203,000	41,307
– Gross Shorts:	39,537	281,589	27,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	66.0	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	10.5	-11.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	30.4	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.7	12.9
– Net Position:	86,338	-72,244	-14,094
– Gross Longs:	138,419	93,825	25,803
– Gross Shorts:	52,081	166,069	39,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	34.5	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-1.6	-21.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	37.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	32.7	10.8
– Net Position:	-9,091	9,750	-659
– Gross Longs:	55,656	72,012	19,895
– Gross Shorts:	64,747	62,262	20,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	79.1	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-3.2	10.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	42.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	69.0	3.2
– Net Position:	58,162	-66,471	8,309
– Gross Longs:	88,465	107,180	16,235
– Gross Shorts:	30,303	173,651	7,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	45.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.9	-15.0	-2.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 69,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.3	29.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.4	3.5
– Net Position:	69,933	-72,861	2,928
– Gross Longs:	117,419	84,488	12,822
– Gross Shorts:	47,486	157,349	9,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.3	18.9	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.3	-2.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -61,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	33.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	20.2	8.3
– Net Position:	-61,347	58,242	3,105
– Gross Longs:	122,733	144,907	38,732
– Gross Shorts:	184,080	86,665	35,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	75.5	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	19.6	8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & S&P500

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (18,642 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (16,046 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6,365 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (589 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (567 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The leading market with the declines in speculator bets this week was the DowJones-Mini (-10,829 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (-1,706 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,138,034	15	-73,235	54	46,115	46	27,120	48
Nikkei 225	16,376	17	-43	66	-1,058	29	1,101	42
Nasdaq-Mini	254,924	41	1,435	41	1,646	47	-3,081	59
DowJones-Mini	100,823	65	-32,447	0	29,549	94	2,898	58
VIX	381,162	63	-34,193	94	40,533	6	-6,340	64
Nikkei 225 Yen	52,277	40	3,042	43	8,418	34	-11,460	70

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (94 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (66 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (54 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (43 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (94.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (80.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (51.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (26.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (34.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (62.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (37.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (3 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-4.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-19.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (9.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-42.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-44.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-6.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	46.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	36.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-34,193	40,533	-6,340
– Gross Longs:	94,830	178,112	24,423
– Gross Shorts:	129,023	137,579	30,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	6.5	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.5	-13.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	74.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.8	10.5
– Net Position:	-73,235	46,115	27,120
– Gross Longs:	239,442	1,582,012	252,547
– Gross Shorts:	312,677	1,535,897	225,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	46.3	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-7.7	-1.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	64.7	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	35.4	12.0
– Net Position:	-32,447	29,549	2,898
– Gross Longs:	19,480	65,200	15,041
– Gross Shorts:	51,927	35,651	12,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.6	35.7	0.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	57.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	57.2	16.3
– Net Position:	1,435	1,646	-3,081
– Gross Longs:	66,087	147,544	38,421
– Gross Shorts:	64,652	145,898	41,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.1	46.8	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	20.5	-8.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	83.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	70.8	5.1
– Net Position:	-63,308	62,415	893
– Gross Longs:	46,209	406,775	25,724
– Gross Shorts:	109,517	344,360	24,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	65.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.8	-10.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	62.2	23.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	68.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-43	-1,058	1,101
– Gross Longs:	2,373	10,185	3,818
– Gross Shorts:	2,416	11,243	2,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	29.4	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.7	0.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	87.9	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	83.9	2.0
– Net Position:	-18,963	15,418	3,545
– Gross Longs:	34,410	345,966	11,231
– Gross Shorts:	53,373	330,548	7,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	62.4	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	0.9	-7.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

30 Sep

Speculators boost US Dollar Index bullish bets for 4th straight week to 38-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (15,331 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,131 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,091 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,705 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,124 contracts) and Bitcoin (197 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-18,014 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,893 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,582 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,180 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-3,017 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets rise for 4th straight week to 38-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rise of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions rose for a fourth straight week this week with the speculator position gaining by a total of +13,935 contracts over this last four-week span.

This renewed bullishness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at a total of +16,758 contracts) to a new 38-week high, dating back to January 3rd of this year when the speculator’s net position was at a total of +17,761 contracts.

The average weekly speculator position over 2023 has been a modest +11,409 contracts thus far. This follows a strong 2022 where the weekly average speculator position was +33,606 contracts.

The US Dollar Index price also soared over the course of 2022 and hit multi-decade highs with a top at 114.75 price level before retreating into the end of 2022. The Dollar Index has had an topsy-turvy 2023 with an early peak over 105 but then a lower valley that saw a decline to under the 100.00 price level in July. Since then, the Dollar Index has been on a strong run and is currently on a streak of gains for eleven consecutive weeks and closed this week back above the 105.00 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-26-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,373	41	16,758	53	-18,636	46	1,878	29
EUR	699,271	37	98,399	62	-124,407	43	26,008	20
GBP	227,843	54	15,669	67	-8,687	41	-6,982	44
JPY	285,974	100	-109,512	5	120,227	94	-10,715	32
CHF	53,900	84	-9,115	32	20,914	77	-11,799	19
CAD	175,848	45	-32,696	24	29,819	76	2,877	29
AUD	211,882	67	-86,815	9	102,250	94	-15,435	15
NZD	50,757	58	-15,181	16	18,421	87	-3,240	11
MXN	216,906	43	60,633	76	-64,635	23	4,002	37
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	55,588	47	15,558	56	-18,138	42	2,580	58
Bitcoin	14,844	68	1,794	93	-2,033	0	239	18

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (93 percent) and the Mexican Peso (76 percent) led the currency markets this week. The British Pound (67 percent), EuroFX (62 percent) and the Brazilian Real (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (5 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) were at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (51.0 percent)
EuroFX (62.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (63.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (66.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (24.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (76.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (78.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (55.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (93.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.4 percent)

Bitcoin & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and were the only currencies in positive trends.

The New Zealand Dollar (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-31 percent), EuroFX (-26 percent) and the British Pound (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (19.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.7 percent)
EuroFX (-26.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-20.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-9.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-14.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-44.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-30.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-49.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-19.3 percent)
Bitcoin (37.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.8	22.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.5	7.1
– Net Position:	16,758	-18,636	1,878
– Gross Longs:	26,606	9,545	4,877
– Gross Shorts:	9,848	28,181	2,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	46.2	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-20.0	10.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 98,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	73.1	8.0
– Net Position:	98,399	-124,407	26,008
– Gross Longs:	211,516	387,030	82,167
– Gross Shorts:	113,117	511,437	56,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	42.6	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	30.3	-31.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	48.0	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	51.8	14.6
– Net Position:	15,669	-8,687	-6,982
– Gross Longs:	84,750	109,264	26,381
– Gross Shorts:	69,081	117,951	33,363
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	40.8	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.5	28.8	-31.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -109,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101,619 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	69.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	27.9	16.0
– Net Position:	-109,512	120,227	-10,715
– Gross Longs:	46,169	200,015	35,139
– Gross Shorts:	155,681	79,788	45,854
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	94.3	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	14.5	-2.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	59.3	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	20.5	39.6
– Net Position:	-9,115	20,914	-11,799
– Gross Longs:	12,377	31,968	9,542
– Gross Shorts:	21,492	11,054	21,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	77.4	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	30.3	-41.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	68.7	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	51.7	17.6
– Net Position:	-32,696	29,819	2,877
– Gross Longs:	17,006	120,758	33,799
– Gross Shorts:	49,702	90,939	30,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	76.4	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	10.9	11.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -86,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	71.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.0	23.0	17.0
– Net Position:	-86,815	102,250	-15,435
– Gross Longs:	36,104	151,041	20,512
– Gross Shorts:	122,919	48,791	35,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	94.1	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.6	27.9	-8.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -15,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	72.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	36.3	11.0
– Net Position:	-15,181	18,421	-3,240
– Gross Longs:	10,632	36,867	2,340
– Gross Shorts:	25,813	18,446	5,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	86.6	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.2	30.6	-8.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 60,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	53.3	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	83.1	1.2
– Net Position:	60,633	-64,635	4,002
– Gross Longs:	92,732	115,616	6,587
– Gross Shorts:	32,099	180,251	2,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	22.8	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	12.2	5.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.7	37.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	70.0	3.0
– Net Position:	15,558	-18,138	2,580
– Gross Longs:	29,298	20,746	4,229
– Gross Shorts:	13,740	38,884	1,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	42.3	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	8.7	7.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.6	1.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.5	14.7	6.5
– Net Position:	1,794	-2,033	239
– Gross Longs:	10,930	142	1,200
– Gross Shorts:	9,136	2,175	961
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.4	13.9	18.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-55.7	-10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

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