­

Archive for COT Updates – Page 3

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Positions led by Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Steel (4,618 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,361 contracts), Gold (-7,049 contracts), Palladium (-2,503 contracts) and with Silver (-1,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (82.3 percent)
Silver (83.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (54.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.6 percent)
Palladium (42.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.7 percent)
Steel (89.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.3 percent)

 


Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (25 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (8.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.5 percent)
Palladium (1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (25.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,625 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 268,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.914.09.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.870.34.4
– Net Position:261,625-288,10026,475
– Gross Longs:316,94871,79648,803
– Gross Shorts:55,323359,89622,328
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.618.666.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.75.212.2

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.923.318.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.666.27.8
– Net Position:52,862-70,18817,326
– Gross Longs:78,46938,14930,082
– Gross Shorts:25,607108,33712,756
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.016.854.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.6-11.618.1

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.630.87.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.141.05.7
– Net Position:20,896-24,8423,946
– Gross Longs:104,03275,16917,858
– Gross Shorts:83,136100,01113,912
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.749.041.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-16.3-7.2

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.318.813.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.346.74.3
– Net Position:16,176-23,6607,484
– Gross Longs:52,85015,96711,117
– Gross Shorts:36,67439,6273,633
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.4 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.239.980.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-7.442.3

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.544.914.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.69.86.7
– Net Position:-8,1346,6201,514
– Gross Longs:6,6928,4712,779
– Gross Shorts:14,8261,8511,265
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 14.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.451.2100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.4-6.331.2

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.758.71.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.668.30.5
– Net Position:2,855-3,034179
– Gross Longs:9,63018,379348
– Gross Shorts:6,77521,413169
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.710.752.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.1-26.219.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year, Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year, Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (140,066 contracts), the Fed Funds (137,915 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (111,760 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (38,476 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (16,557 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (9,672 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,675 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was the SOFR 1-Month (-127,401 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-6,869 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (98 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (83 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (19.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (23 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (53.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (97.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (49.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (81.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.0 percent)


Fed Funds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (33 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (32.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (14.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-16.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (19.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-15.5 percent)


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 137,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.159.92.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.460.31.5
– Net Position:-6,390-8,35314,743
– Gross Longs:420,8881,254,62247,031
– Gross Shorts:427,2781,262,97532,288
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.440.581.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.3-36.225.1

 


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -724,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -741,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.060.80.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.954.10.1
– Net Position:-724,871701,66023,211
– Gross Longs:1,470,0196,375,83229,317
– Gross Shorts:2,194,8905,674,1726,106
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 14.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.875.9100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.2-0.710.1

 


Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -76,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -127,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.856.20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.550.90.8
– Net Position:-76,32485,618-9,294
– Gross Longs:416,124908,8423,211
– Gross Shorts:492,448823,22412,505
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.752.660.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.919.1-24.0

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,149,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 140,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.372.46.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.548.63.0
– Net Position:-1,149,4531,006,450143,003
– Gross Longs:521,5283,063,965270,344
– Gross Shorts:1,670,9812,057,515127,341
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.073.681.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-11.19.5

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,625,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 111,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,737,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.579.57.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.957.84.5
– Net Position:-1,625,7731,452,453173,320
– Gross Longs:370,9755,315,137474,030
– Gross Shorts:1,996,7483,862,684300,710
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.074.084.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-13.812.8

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -699,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -709,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.072.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.460.17.2
– Net Position:-699,855646,80153,054
– Gross Longs:677,8683,780,605429,465
– Gross Shorts:1,377,7233,133,804376,411
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.058.071.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.516.9-1.8

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 38,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.170.010.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.366.111.9
– Net Position:-52,95796,118-43,161
– Gross Longs:346,2581,719,027248,084
– Gross Shorts:399,2151,622,909291,245
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.00.182.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.2-32.2-4.4

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.962.310.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.068.46.3
– Net Position:40,912-134,21293,300
– Gross Longs:415,9981,373,857233,255
– Gross Shorts:375,0861,508,069139,955
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.60.082.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.2-22.525.1

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.580.810.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.868.88.6
– Net Position:-239,941214,84325,098
– Gross Longs:152,0291,450,800179,900
– Gross Shorts:391,9701,235,957154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.711.944.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.5-14.043.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (54,198 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-27,563 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts), Soybeans (-4,908 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (90 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (21 percent), Soybean Meal (22 percent) and Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (93.6 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (44.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)


Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Live Cattle (9 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.0 percent)
Sugar (6.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.6 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 441,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -27,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 468,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.238.86.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.257.510.6
– Net Position:441,161-358,683-82,478
– Gross Longs:597,706744,225119,966
– Gross Shorts:156,5451,102,908202,444
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.014.910.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-11.5-8.0

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 54,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.451.27.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.956.46.1
– Net Position:33,491-50,61217,121
– Gross Longs:206,226494,53276,510
– Gross Shorts:172,735545,14459,389
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.376.941.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-11.027.8

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.737.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.671.93.5
– Net Position:63,697-67,1693,472
– Gross Longs:78,31071,13010,259
– Gross Shorts:14,613138,2996,787
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.612.975.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.815.5

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.457.34.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.751.79.1
– Net Position:-10,55046,048-35,498
– Gross Longs:160,652474,79540,258
– Gross Shorts:171,202428,74775,756
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.959.819.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.06.9-6.7

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.155.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.467.04.5
– Net Position:55,168-65,1539,985
– Gross Longs:124,887312,91435,495
– Gross Shorts:69,719378,06725,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.752.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-28.632.8

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.851.05.7
– Net Position:-13,967-4,40818,375
– Gross Longs:102,087294,10951,912
– Gross Shorts:116,054298,51733,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.776.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-2.5-9.6

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.929.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.514.1
– Net Position:113,424-88,275-25,149
– Gross Longs:179,879108,59526,597
– Gross Shorts:66,455196,87051,746
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.514.89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-9.5-5.5

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.332.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.49.4
– Net Position:73,220-67,641-5,579
– Gross Longs:137,087101,13724,044
– Gross Shorts:63,867168,77829,623
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.413.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.829.2

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.950.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.736.34.6
– Net Position:-42,56539,2383,327
– Gross Longs:68,832143,74516,498
– Gross Shorts:111,397104,50713,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.493.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.22.920.2

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.840.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.767.34.1
– Net Position:26,819-33,0516,232
– Gross Longs:40,94748,36911,236
– Gross Shorts:14,12881,4205,004
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.165.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.63.0

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.534.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.921.97.7
– Net Position:-55,94154,2811,660
– Gross Longs:132,148152,70935,998
– Gross Shorts:188,08998,42834,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.764.465.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.3-16.3-1.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (15,949 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (8,475 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (7,187 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (1,950 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-11,438 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,051 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nikkei 225 (81 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and S&P500-Mini (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (34 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (44.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (54.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (81.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (75.5 percent)


Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (24 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (23 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-38.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-13.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-13.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-18.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.4 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -69,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.149.27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.931.77.2
– Net Position:-69,10368,0931,010
– Gross Longs:86,226191,77328,991
– Gross Shorts:155,329123,68027,981
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.765.982.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.434.010.2

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.170.013.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.775.17.0
– Net Position:-32,779-107,803140,582
– Gross Longs:300,9491,489,757288,516
– Gross Shorts:333,7281,597,560147,934
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.418.893.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-3.39.7

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.461.018.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.013.0
– Net Position:2,877-7,2704,393
– Gross Longs:14,17949,67614,949
– Gross Shorts:11,30256,94610,556
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.027.780.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.95.9-13.7

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.353.015.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.367.810.1
– Net Position:25,777-42,31616,539
– Gross Longs:83,882151,63245,463
– Gross Shorts:58,105193,94828,924
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.18.186.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-19.65.8

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.275.17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.373.04.8
– Net Position:-21,3318,62512,706
– Gross Longs:51,610317,14033,096
– Gross Shorts:72,941308,51520,390
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.429.260.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.814.8-10.9

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.067.820.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.063.125.9
– Net Position:119569-688
– Gross Longs:1,4448,1652,430
– Gross Shorts:1,3257,5963,118
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.230.430.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.0-14.4-16.8

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.785.42.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.984.31.6
– Net Position:-9,9074,9464,961
– Gross Longs:51,405376,32111,891
– Gross Shorts:61,312371,3756,930
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.832.241.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.0-22.89.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Euro, Australian & Canadian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while three markets had lower speculator contracts and one market saw no change.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (13,005 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (8,862 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (6,191 contracts), the Japanese Yen (5,954 contracts), the British Pound (2,589 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,472 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (386 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-2,827 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,177 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-140 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

In an extremely rare occurrence this week (that likely will be updated later), Bitcoin (0 contracts) saw no change in its futures contracts for the speculator positioning.

Large Currency Speculators push US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen bullish bets higher

Highlighting the COT data for the week was a rebound in some of the most bearish currency speculator positions (EUR, CAD & AUD) while the Japanese yen and the US Dollar Index speculators pushed their bets higher.

Here is a Quick Currency Roundup:

The US Dollar Index positioning rose once again this week and gained for the third week in a row. The USD Index bets has now risen in nine out of the past ten weeks and the current bullish position has grown to the highest level since September. Despite the positioning gains, the US Dollar Index futures price (DX) has actually dipped for the past three straight weeks. The DX closed the week at the 106.52 level and after the recent bullish momentum hit a roadblock around the 109.00-110.00 resistance level numerous times over the past month. Currently, the DX sits at support that used to be resistance in the recent past at 106.50.

The Euro speculator bets jumped this week by over +13,000 contracts after falling in three out of the past four weeks. The current speculator level sits at -51,420 contracts which is in extreme bearish territory compared to the past three years of positioning. The Euro exchange rate versus the USD has been trading at the lowest levels since 2022 when the EURUSD exchange went below parity for the first time in decades. The EURUSD recently bounced off support levels at 1.0250 but remains in a downtrend that has seen the Euro fall approximately 9 percent vs the USD since September.

The Japanese yen speculator positioning gained once again this week for the fifth straight week. The current speculator level leads all the currencies in net bullish positions at +60,569 contracts and has jumped by +89,980 contracts in just the past five weeks (going from -14,673 contracts five weeks ago to this week over +60k contracts). The turnaround in sentiment has also been felt in the yen exchange rate versus the US Dollar which has risen in five out of the past six weeks. The USDJPY currency pair closed below 150.00 this week for the first time since October which is a gain for the yen by over 6 percent since the beginning of the year.

The Australian dollar speculators boosted their bets by over +8,000 contracts this week to bring the total spec standing to -56,723 contracts. The AUD speculator standing has had a sharply bearish end to 2024 and start to this year as the spec level has fallen by -88,499 contracts since the beginning of December. The AUD positions have declined in nine out of the past twelve weeks but have rebounded in each of the past two weeks. The Australian currency recently dipped to the 0.6098 exchange level vs the USD which marked the lowest exchange rate since 2020. The AUDUSD currency pair closed the week at the 0.6355 exchange rate which is off the recent lows but remains in a downtrend currently.

The Canadian dollar speculative position improved again this week and rose for a second straight week. The CAD positioning has been extremely bearish and above the -100,000 contract level for nineteen straight weeks and overall, the CAD position has been in bearish territory for eighty-one consecutive weeks. Despite this extreme bearishness, the speculator positions have actually been positive in seven out of the past nine weeks. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US Dollar dipped modestly this week but had gained in the previous two weeks. The CAD futures price had recently fallen to the lowest level in over 20 years under the 0.6800 threshold but managed to bounce off long-term support around 0.6820-0.6875. This level has proved to be a strong turnaround level in both 2016 and 2020 and time will only tell if this turns out to be a similar case.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (98 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (3 percent) and the EuroFX (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.4 percent)
EuroFX (9.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (36.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (43.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.3 percent)


Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.5 percent)
EuroFX (4.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (25.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-12.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-1.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (32.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-34.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-1.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.518.98.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.963.37.5
– Net Position:16,768-17,057289
– Gross Longs:26,7297,2753,161
– Gross Shorts:9,96124,3322,872
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.460.529.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.8-13.6-14.2

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.756.611.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.852.57.9
– Net Position:-51,42026,19525,225
– Gross Longs:170,320361,23975,697
– Gross Shorts:221,740335,04450,472
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.290.129.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.8-6.413.6

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.249.211.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.543.916.9
– Net Position:-57910,797-10,218
– Gross Longs:73,564100,00124,129
– Gross Shorts:74,14389,20434,347
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.965.740.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.86.6-3.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 60,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.529.915.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.954.812.2
– Net Position:60,569-70,1939,624
– Gross Longs:147,56684,00143,985
– Gross Shorts:86,997154,19434,361
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.82.787.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.3-33.323.5

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.283.79.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.431.122.4
– Net Position:-38,35951,505-13,146
– Gross Longs:7,04781,9218,807
– Gross Shorts:45,40630,41621,953
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.283.423.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.0-4.814.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -144,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.682.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.335.610.3
– Net Position:-144,643151,212-6,569
– Gross Longs:21,276266,23326,645
– Gross Shorts:165,919115,02133,214
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.178.422.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-17.018.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.758.013.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.626.215.5
– Net Position:-56,72360,353-3,630
– Gross Longs:46,918110,01025,863
– Gross Shorts:103,64149,65729,493
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.065.939.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-13.515.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -52,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.680.44.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.020.26.0
– Net Position:-52,16353,832-1,669
– Gross Longs:13,04871,8873,718
– Gross Shorts:65,21118,0555,387
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 14.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.996.332.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-3.710.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.652.72.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.861.23.7
– Net Position:14,673-12,824-1,849
– Gross Longs:63,85278,8513,749
– Gross Shorts:49,17991,6755,598
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.267.612.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-1.2-0.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.531.04.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.433.62.5
– Net Position:940-2,2161,276
– Gross Longs:50,76326,4713,444
– Gross Shorts:49,82328,6872,168
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.047.228.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.2-33.812.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:80.95.04.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:82.04.53.8
– Net Position:-367141226
– Gross Longs:27,3671,6801,519
– Gross Shorts:27,7341,5391,293
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.366.927.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.038.60.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Speculator Extremes: Steel & US Treasury Bonds lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 18th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)



Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 5,090 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,235 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


US Treasury Bond


The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes next and tied for the most bullish lead in the extreme standings this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 22.5 this week. The speculator position registered 47,781 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 3,780 contracts in speculator bets.


Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings as the yen sentiment has turned around positively. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 32.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,569 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,954 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as Corn’s sentiment has also turned around sharply in the past months. The Corn speculator level is currently at a 93.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 468,724 net contracts this week with a jump by 43,955 contracts in the speculator bets.


Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 90.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.3 this week.

The speculator position was 80,857 net contracts this week with an advance by 7,637 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.



This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was also 2.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -52,163 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,827 contracts in the speculator bets.


Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.6 this week. The speculator position was -20,707 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,819 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 8.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,068 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,497 contracts in the speculator bets.


Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 9.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.8 this week. The speculator position was -51,420 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,005 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 13.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.4 this week. The speculator position was -1,737,533 net contracts this week with a rise by 124,202 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper, Silver & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Silver (4,744 contracts), Steel (4,618 contracts) and Palladium (943 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The two markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,830 contracts) and with Platinum (-2,193 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (82 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (61 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is over the 50-percent or the midpoint level for the past 3-years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (82.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (88.3 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (71.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.8 percent)
Palladium (60.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (53.8 percent)
Steel (89.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.7 percent)

 


Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (26 percent) and Steel (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

There were no markets this week with negative trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (5.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.1 percent)
Silver (17.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.9 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (47.5 percent)
Palladium (25.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (24.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.8 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 268,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 284,504 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.013.99.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.570.54.5
– Net Position:268,674-296,07127,397
– Gross Longs:334,04372,39350,882
– Gross Shorts:65,369368,46423,485
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.315.769.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-6.313.2

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.920.718.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.863.08.0
– Net Position:54,454-71,96017,506
– Gross Longs:84,81435,23731,187
– Gross Shorts:30,360107,19713,681
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.3 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.014.855.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-17.511.1

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.630.87.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.141.05.7
– Net Position:20,896-24,8423,946
– Gross Longs:104,03275,16917,858
– Gross Shorts:83,136100,01113,912
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.749.041.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-16.3-7.2

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.616.110.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.047.45.9
– Net Position:23,537-27,6584,121
– Gross Longs:58,82914,2089,361
– Gross Shorts:35,29241,8665,240
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.3 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.630.927.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-12.4-2.4

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.639.011.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.316.16.7
– Net Position:-5,6314,658973
– Gross Longs:7,0217,9222,330
– Gross Shorts:12,6523,2641,357
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.737.280.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.5-24.5-1.9

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,618 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.758.71.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.668.30.5
– Net Position:2,855-3,034179
– Gross Longs:9,63018,379348
– Gross Shorts:6,77521,413169
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.810.552.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.8-25.719.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (124,202 contracts) with the Fed Funds (73,169 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (41,507 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (10,481 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (9,093 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (7,490 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,780 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,301 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-5,859 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (14.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (41.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (65.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (67.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (98.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (81.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (79.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.4 percent)


US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-16 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-26.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (27.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (19.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (29.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-18.5 percent)


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -144,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 73,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -217,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.166.63.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.160.21.7
– Net Position:-144,305115,67728,628
– Gross Longs:216,6041,194,52958,796
– Gross Shorts:360,9091,078,85230,168
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.063.1100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-8.733.0

 


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -741,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -751,909 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.262.90.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.355.90.3
– Net Position:-741,428731,38410,044
– Gross Longs:1,379,4946,555,79338,925
– Gross Shorts:2,120,9225,824,40928,881
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.077.493.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.515.7-1.6

 


Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 51,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,587 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.259.40.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.760.72.4
– Net Position:51,077-18,806-32,271
– Gross Longs:352,869866,6163,103
– Gross Shorts:301,792885,42235,374
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.126.90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-11.1-84.7

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,289,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,298,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.276.55.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.248.23.3
– Net Position:-1,289,5191,180,540108,979
– Gross Longs:509,3833,187,914244,396
– Gross Shorts:1,798,9022,007,374135,417
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.487.670.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.610.4-10.4

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,737,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 124,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,861,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.979.26.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.855.84.7
– Net Position:-1,737,5331,633,016104,517
– Gross Longs:412,9135,533,519433,254
– Gross Shorts:2,150,4463,900,503328,737
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.185.571.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-3.4-2.0

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -709,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 41,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -751,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.970.18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.457.37.4
– Net Position:-709,527668,09641,431
– Gross Longs:727,9343,672,440426,916
– Gross Shorts:1,437,4613,004,344385,485
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.160.668.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.58.2-7.9

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -91,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,574 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.772.89.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.566.411.9
– Net Position:-91,433150,480-59,047
– Gross Longs:346,0911,717,063222,552
– Gross Shorts:437,5241,566,583281,599
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.721.670.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-5.4-22.0

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.563.710.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.269.46.9
– Net Position:47,781-118,53870,757
– Gross Longs:485,2701,311,974211,937
– Gross Shorts:437,4891,430,512141,180
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.367.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.5-23.69.0

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -246,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.580.810.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.868.88.6
– Net Position:-239,941214,84325,098
– Gross Longs:152,0291,450,800179,900
– Gross Shorts:391,9701,235,957154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.711.944.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.5-14.043.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,955 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (5,819 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Soybeans (-12,423 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (94 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (4 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (93.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.0 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.1 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (46.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (49.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)


Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Corn (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Soybeans (11 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (17.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.9 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 468,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 424,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.339.05.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.757.210.2
– Net Position:468,724-377,274-91,450
– Gross Longs:627,494807,094120,055
– Gross Shorts:158,7701,184,368211,505
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.612.40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-16.2-31.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.854.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.953.36.7
– Net Position:-20,70712,0568,651
– Gross Longs:205,612538,44174,611
– Gross Shorts:226,319526,38565,960
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.093.830.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.617.86.0

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.737.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.671.93.5
– Net Position:63,697-67,1693,472
– Gross Longs:78,31071,13010,259
– Gross Shorts:14,613138,2996,787
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.612.975.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.815.5

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.555.44.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.151.28.4
– Net Position:-5,64237,594-31,952
– Gross Longs:166,913499,90943,943
– Gross Shorts:172,555462,31575,895
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.057.729.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-9.4-17.5

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.155.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.467.04.5
– Net Position:55,168-65,1539,985
– Gross Longs:124,887312,91435,495
– Gross Shorts:69,719378,06725,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.752.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-28.632.8

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.851.05.7
– Net Position:-13,967-4,40818,375
– Gross Longs:102,087294,10951,912
– Gross Shorts:116,054298,51733,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.776.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-2.5-9.6

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.929.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.514.1
– Net Position:113,424-88,275-25,149
– Gross Longs:179,879108,59526,597
– Gross Shorts:66,455196,87051,746
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.514.89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-9.5-5.5

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.332.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.49.4
– Net Position:73,220-67,641-5,579
– Gross Longs:137,087101,13724,044
– Gross Shorts:63,867168,77829,623
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.413.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.829.2

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.950.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.736.34.6
– Net Position:-42,56539,2383,327
– Gross Longs:68,832143,74516,498
– Gross Shorts:111,397104,50713,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.493.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.22.920.2

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.840.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.767.34.1
– Net Position:26,819-33,0516,232
– Gross Longs:40,94748,36911,236
– Gross Shorts:14,12881,4205,004
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.165.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.63.0

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.534.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.921.97.7
– Net Position:-55,94154,2811,660
– Gross Longs:132,148152,70935,998
– Gross Shorts:188,08998,42834,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.764.465.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.3-16.3-1.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (2,658 contracts) with the VIX (1,330 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (381 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-22,857 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,064 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-3,608 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (65 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (44.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (42.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (70.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (54.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (60.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (61.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (73.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)


MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (14 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-25.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-16.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-18.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-20.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (13.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (33.9 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -57,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.649.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.035.56.7
– Net Position:-57,66555,6172,048
– Gross Longs:86,047197,33428,989
– Gross Shorts:143,712141,71726,941
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.155.386.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.117.923.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -22,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.869.613.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.673.97.0
– Net Position:-39,966-91,985131,951
– Gross Longs:313,1051,475,997281,293
– Gross Shorts:353,0711,567,982149,342
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.221.189.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.7-5.25.0

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.461.018.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.013.0
– Net Position:2,877-7,2704,393
– Gross Longs:14,17949,67614,949
– Gross Shorts:11,30256,94610,556
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.027.780.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.95.9-13.7

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.354.613.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.960.411.0
– Net Position:9,828-16,7596,931
– Gross Longs:87,917158,26338,847
– Gross Shorts:78,089175,02231,916
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.435.567.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.918.2-15.3

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -29,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.277.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.473.64.6
– Net Position:-29,80615,39714,409
– Gross Longs:42,482322,19033,687
– Gross Shorts:72,288306,79319,278
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.633.465.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.219.4-14.3

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.171.820.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.256.119.7
– Net Position:-1,8311,78843
– Gross Longs:9238,1682,280
– Gross Shorts:2,7546,3802,237
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.638.944.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.8-8.7-7.1

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.384.92.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.184.11.5
– Net Position:-7,8563,4564,400
– Gross Longs:54,691376,90111,099
– Gross Shorts:62,547373,4456,699
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.030.439.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.5-26.415.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.