COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 22

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Mexican Peso, GBP, Corn & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 4.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,995 contracts this week with a decline of -4,449 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

British Pound Sterling

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 87.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 17.8 this week. The speculator position registered 46,312 net contracts this week with a weekly fall of -4,160 contracts in speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level resides at a 87.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -12.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 16,728 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,641 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 86.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -4.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,701 net contracts this week with a dip of -518 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 10.9 this week.

The speculator position was -13,856 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,589 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -266,067 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,128 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.3 this week. The speculator position was -45,453 net contracts this week with a edge higher by 14 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybeans speculator level resides at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -160,288 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,463 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.9 this week. The speculator position was -33,941 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,325 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

Finally, the Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 6.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -43.4 this week. The speculator position was -120,778 net contracts this week with a decrease of -9,242 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

18 Feb

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound Sterling & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (15,997 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (13,615 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,577 contracts), Canadian Dollar (2,254 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (463 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-27,306 contracts), the EuroFX (-9,315 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-7,163 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-447 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-314 contracts) and Bitcoin (-398 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Speculators push British Pound bullish bets to 25-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued rise in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling.

Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +16,000 contracts and have gained in seven consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has added a total of +36,380 contracts to the net position over these last seven weeks and has brought the net level from a total of +14,092 contracts on December 26th to this week’s currently standing of +50,472 contracts. This marks the most bullish position for the GBP speculators since August 22nd, a span of twenty-five weeks.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate (GBPUSD currency pair) against the US Dollar has been oscillating around the 1.2500 exchange level over the past week despite recent downbeat economic news. The UK economy has recently dipped into a technical recession with declining GDP in both the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2023. However, with inflation still high, traders and market watchers still see the Bank of England holding their interest rates at high levels which could provide support for the UK currency.

The Pound exchange continues to be in a weekly uptrend since a recent dive in October when prices were falling and dipped as low as 1.2050. The currency has also come down from the most recent high levels of the current uptrend (topping out around 1.2800) and has now settled in right above the 200-day moving average with this week’s close trading at 1.2609.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (64 percent), Brazilian Real (60 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (12 percent) and the Australian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and Bitcoin (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.1 percent)
EuroFX (42.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (46.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (90.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (29.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (64.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (59.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (60.0 percent)
Bitcoin (37.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (43.5 percent)

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (24 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (10 percent), the Mexican Peso (7 percent) and the Bitcoin (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-33 percent), the EuroFX (-28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.7 percent)
EuroFX (-28.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-34.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-18.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-33.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-19.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (4.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.5	15.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.2	25.1	7.8
– Net Position:	2,002	-3,179	1,177
– Gross Longs:	21,096	4,916	3,675
– Gross Shorts:	19,094	8,095	2,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	73.2	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	-2.6	23.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 52,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	59.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	68.8	7.8
– Net Position:	52,838	-72,264	19,426
– Gross Longs:	210,848	437,266	76,997
– Gross Shorts:	158,010	509,530	57,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	62.2	10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	31.9	-29.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	36.3	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	59.9	14.4
– Net Position:	50,472	-46,883	-3,589
– Gross Longs:	90,545	72,289	25,127
– Gross Shorts:	40,073	119,172	28,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.8	19.4	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-16.6	-11.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -111,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	63.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	25.9	15.4
– Net Position:	-111,536	115,172	-3,636
– Gross Longs:	58,554	194,067	43,189
– Gross Shorts:	170,090	78,895	46,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	88.8	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	37.0	-16.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	58.4	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.0	31.0	34.8
– Net Position:	-6,014	15,080	-9,066
– Gross Longs:	12,689	32,148	10,071
– Gross Shorts:	18,703	17,068	19,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	60.2	36.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	23.8	-46.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	57.1	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	52.8	19.6
– Net Position:	-5,482	6,958	-1,476
– Gross Longs:	35,698	92,188	30,243
– Gross Shorts:	41,180	85,230	31,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	55.8	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-0.9	-31.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -78,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	64.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	18.8	15.2
– Net Position:	-78,976	90,985	-12,009
– Gross Longs:	47,405	128,465	18,320
– Gross Shorts:	126,381	37,480	30,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	85.7	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.0	45.8	-60.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	37.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	48.2	8.9
– Net Position:	3,407	-4,505	1,098
– Gross Longs:	19,632	15,668	4,819
– Gross Shorts:	16,225	20,173	3,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	34.4	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-4.7	-23.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 100,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 86,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	38.7	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	78.3	1.1
– Net Position:	100,444	-105,042	4,598
– Gross Longs:	147,176	102,632	7,407
– Gross Shorts:	46,732	207,674	2,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.5	8.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.6	35.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	73.7	2.2
– Net Position:	19,348	-21,321	1,973
– Gross Longs:	32,621	19,693	3,211
– Gross Shorts:	13,273	41,014	1,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	39.4	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	19.4	-3.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.3	6.1	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.1	1.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-1,921	1,152	769
– Gross Longs:	19,147	1,514	1,725
– Gross Shorts:	21,068	362	956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	94.0	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-2.1	-5.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

18 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-30,570 contracts) with Copper (-18,987 contracts), Platinum (-7,596 contracts), Silver (-4,455 contracts), Palladium (-2,509 contracts) and Steel (-587 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.3 percent)
Silver (38.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.2 percent)
Copper (2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (20.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.0 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.2 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals have negative 6-week trend scores currently.

Platinum (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-37 percent) and Gold (-34 percent) as the next market with the lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-34.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-20.7 percent)
Silver (-30.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.8 percent)
Copper (-37.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-18.7 percent)
Platinum (-65.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-33.9 percent)
Palladium (-32.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.3 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	26.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	62.4	5.3
– Net Position:	131,168	-152,980	21,812
– Gross Longs:	217,505	109,529	44,228
– Gross Shorts:	86,337	262,509	22,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	62.9	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	33.7	-19.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.2	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	50.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,425	-29,688	17,263
– Gross Longs:	56,785	47,556	32,154
– Gross Shorts:	44,360	77,244	14,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	56.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	26.3	-4.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	39.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	27.2	5.8
– Net Position:	-32,697	30,426	2,271
– Gross Longs:	78,229	100,413	17,289
– Gross Shorts:	110,926	69,987	15,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	96.8	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.2	34.8	-4.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	25.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	34.5	4.4
– Net Position:	1,938	-8,229	6,291
– Gross Longs:	50,318	23,849	10,369
– Gross Shorts:	48,380	32,078	4,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	75.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.0	52.6	33.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	52.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	6.0	6.6
– Net Position:	-13,511	13,042	469
– Gross Longs:	4,317	14,720	2,308
– Gross Shorts:	17,828	1,678	1,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	8.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	28.3	33.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	81.2	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	73.1	0.6
– Net Position:	-2,183	1,957	226
– Gross Longs:	3,117	19,560	379
– Gross Shorts:	5,300	17,603	153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.1	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.1	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (117,595 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (67,943 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (30,099 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (29,415 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (6,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-19,126 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-15,056 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,021 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (91 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (50 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (44 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (10 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (38.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (44.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (50.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (47.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (90.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.0 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Fed Funds (-2 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-1.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (4.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 586,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 30,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 556,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	51.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	56.6	0.5
– Net Position:	586,542	-567,164	-19,378
– Gross Longs:	1,910,959	5,376,976	34,146
– Gross Shorts:	1,324,417	5,944,140	53,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	10.2	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.3	-9.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -141,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	69.5	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	61.6	2.3
– Net Position:	-141,981	153,433	-11,452
– Gross Longs:	259,866	1,346,488	33,686
– Gross Shorts:	401,847	1,193,055	45,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	62.3	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.5	-1.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,188,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 117,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,305,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	55.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,188,014	1,052,479	135,535
– Gross Longs:	374,316	3,254,831	263,751
– Gross Shorts:	1,562,330	2,202,352	128,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	79.6	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-5.5	8.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,316,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,297,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	64.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,316,293	1,215,390	100,903
– Gross Longs:	417,558	4,996,200	397,262
– Gross Shorts:	1,733,851	3,780,810	296,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	5.0	-8.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -760,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 67,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -828,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	63.9	7.6
– Net Position:	-760,519	688,569	71,950
– Gross Longs:	489,605	3,713,618	432,020
– Gross Shorts:	1,250,124	3,025,049	360,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	82.9	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-12.0	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -230,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	76.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	62.3	12.7
– Net Position:	-230,706	313,523	-82,817
– Gross Longs:	279,753	1,686,833	197,906
– Gross Shorts:	510,459	1,373,310	280,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	93.9	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	0.3	-12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -113,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	71.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	67.6	10.6
– Net Position:	-113,371	59,063	54,308
– Gross Longs:	185,581	1,029,694	205,953
– Gross Shorts:	298,952	970,631	151,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	33.9	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-10.8	0.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -334,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -341,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	61.1	8.7
– Net Position:	-334,876	309,005	25,871
– Gross Longs:	165,750	1,330,881	170,951
– Gross Shorts:	500,626	1,021,876	145,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	47.8	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	8.0	15.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,184 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,480 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (92 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-4,458 contracts), the VIX (-1,979 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-616 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-812 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (93 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (89 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (75 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (75.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (30.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (93.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (94.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (88.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (42.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (41.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (37.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Russell-Mini (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-4.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-16.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (12.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	46.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	31.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,966	54,671	-3,705
– Gross Longs:	76,506	167,381	26,308
– Gross Shorts:	127,472	112,710	30,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	23.4	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.9	8.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -215,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	74.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	67.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-215,778	152,512	63,266
– Gross Longs:	292,466	1,738,023	254,739
– Gross Shorts:	508,244	1,585,511	191,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	60.9	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	3.5	-9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	51.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	73.4	12.7
– Net Position:	20,369	-23,116	2,747
– Gross Longs:	32,665	52,815	15,867
– Gross Shorts:	12,296	75,931	13,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.4	4.7	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-3.7	8.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	52.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	65.0	12.1
– Net Position:	32,076	-37,213	5,137
– Gross Longs:	97,292	155,161	40,984
– Gross Shorts:	65,216	192,374	35,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	11.7	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	11.1	-8.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	76.9	4.8
– Net Position:	-24,451	16,168	8,283
– Gross Longs:	60,783	405,971	32,713
– Gross Shorts:	85,234	389,803	24,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	30.9	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	16.8	-9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	64.2	25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	54.9	14.3
– Net Position:	-3,388	1,576	1,812
– Gross Longs:	1,829	10,843	4,222
– Gross Shorts:	5,217	9,267	2,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	45.5	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-2.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	88.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	83.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-27,856	23,703	4,153
– Gross Longs:	33,926	382,513	13,677
– Gross Shorts:	61,782	358,810	9,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	61.4	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-5.7	-16.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 Feb

Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator bets led by Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (24,092 contracts) with Sugar (11,631 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,985 contracts), Wheat (9,277 contracts), Coffee (5,101 contracts), Live Cattle (4,440 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-16,517 contracts), Soybean Meal (-11,545 contracts), Cocoa (-8,763 contracts) and Soybeans (-934 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (89 percent) and Cotton (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (60 percent), Wheat (47 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and the Soybean Oil (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.1 percent)
Sugar (23.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.7 percent)
Coffee (89.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.8 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (36.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (31.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (71.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (53.8 percent)
Cocoa (60.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (69.2 percent)
Wheat (47.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.9 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (59 percent) and Live Cattle (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (25 percent), Coffee (17 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-33 percent), Cocoa (-20 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-12.9 percent)
Sugar (6.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.7 percent)
Coffee (17.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.3 percent)
Soybeans (-33.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-36.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-0.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-32.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-33.7 percent)
Live Cattle (24.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.6 percent)
Cotton (58.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (42.3 percent)
Cocoa (-20.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.6 percent)
Wheat (3.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -245,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	45.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	29.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-245,939	263,504	-17,565
– Gross Longs:	281,214	730,978	157,423
– Gross Shorts:	527,153	467,474	174,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.6	16.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 92,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	55.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	68.5	6.2
– Net Position:	92,155	-112,138	19,983
– Gross Longs:	184,125	493,076	75,081
– Gross Shorts:	91,970	605,214	55,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	75.1	28.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.1	3.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	37.6	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	65.0	3.4
– Net Position:	60,084	-61,442	1,358
– Gross Longs:	82,479	84,398	8,905
– Gross Shorts:	22,395	145,840	7,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.0	14.8	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-16.4	-2.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -161,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	59.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	37.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-161,751	171,638	-9,887
– Gross Longs:	86,975	456,229	52,898
– Gross Shorts:	248,726	284,591	62,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.9	32.4	8.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	49.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	45.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-24,616	25,463	-847
– Gross Longs:	105,702	275,768	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	130,318	250,305	28,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	95.0	10.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-2.8	-10.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	49.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	43.6	6.4
– Net Position:	-45,467	28,730	16,737
– Gross Longs:	79,737	244,539	48,351
– Gross Shorts:	125,204	215,809	31,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.5	29.7	24.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	37.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	54.7	12.7
– Net Position:	53,594	-48,988	-4,606
– Gross Longs:	97,639	108,023	31,859
– Gross Shorts:	44,045	157,011	36,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.7	62.9	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-24.6	-14.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	39.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	37.6	11.0
– Net Position:	1,579	3,243	-4,822
– Gross Longs:	70,928	82,947	18,474
– Gross Shorts:	69,349	79,704	23,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	72.5	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-27.5	5.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	36.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	73.2	3.7
– Net Position:	83,935	-92,565	8,630
– Gross Longs:	102,360	93,505	17,952
– Gross Shorts:	18,425	186,070	9,322
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	27.6	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	58.9	-59.5	57.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	31.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	51.6	4.0
– Net Position:	49,351	-54,822	5,471
– Gross Longs:	95,562	85,415	16,442
– Gross Shorts:	46,211	140,237	10,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	37.0	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	14.7	42.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	36.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	27.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-29,007	33,760	-4,753
– Gross Longs:	124,909	143,969	29,853
– Gross Shorts:	153,916	110,209	34,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	51.8	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-5.2	10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

17 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Mexican Peso, Dow, Corn & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 13th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 6.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 100,444 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,615 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is now at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.3 this week. The speculator position registered 20,369 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -616 contracts in speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 24.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,472 net contracts this week with a jump of 15,997 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 586,542 net contracts this week with an increase by 30,099 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 89.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 17.1 this week.

The speculator position was 60,084 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,101 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -245,939 net contracts this week with a decline of -16,517 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.3 this week. The speculator position was -13,511 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -45,467 net contracts this week with a drop of -11,545 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.9 this week. The speculator position was -161,751 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -934 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Copper

Finally, the Copper speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Copper speculator level is at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.2 this week. The speculator position was -32,697 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,987 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Feb

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (6,063 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,294 contracts), British Pound (2,716 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,267 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (703 contracts) and the EuroFX (447 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-9,810 contracts) the Brazilian Real (-5,452 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,175 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,275 contracts) and Bitcoin (-137 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculators add to their bearish bets as yen falls

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is recent the drop in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions dropped for a third straight week this week and for the fourth time out of the past five weeks. The decline over the last three weeks is a total of -24,506 contracts that has taken the speculative level from -55,949 net contracts on January 9th to this week’s total at -80,455 net contracts. The current level is now at the most bearish standing since December 12th.

The yen had seen a respite from the negative speculative bets in December and January (going from -104,956 contracts on December 5th to -55,949 on January 9th) as market watchers had been expecting the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will eventually look to end its negative interest rate policy. However, the BOJ has largely maintained their interest rate policy and thrown cold water onto the yen bulls (possibly) premature hopes.

The yen exchange rate (versus the US Dollar) has been on the back-foot now for four out of the past five weeks after having made gains through November and December. The US Dollar had fallen versus the yen and brought the USDJPY currency pair to the 140.25 mark in late December which was the best level for the yen since July. Since starting the new year, the yen has been declining and this week the USDJPY closed at approximately the 148.30 level – an almost 6 percent gain for the USD versus the yen since January 1st.

Major Currencies – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (88 percent) and the British Pound (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (58 percent), the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Bitcoin (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (24.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.9 percent)
EuroFX (58.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (57.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (77.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (52.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (88.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (85.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (65.3 percent)
Bitcoin (39.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.4 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the British Pound (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (8 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-11 percent), Japanese Yen (-9 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-26.9 percent)
EuroFX (-11.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-25.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (9.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (26.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-2.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-33.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-29.7 percent)
Bitcoin (8.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (6.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.0	15.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.5	18.3	9.8
– Net Position:	372	-739	367
– Gross Longs:	17,238	3,964	2,878
– Gross Shorts:	16,866	4,703	2,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	77.2	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	4.0	13.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 88,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	59.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	75.4	7.1
– Net Position:	88,771	-116,006	27,235
– Gross Longs:	200,360	432,311	78,589
– Gross Shorts:	111,589	548,317	51,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	45.8	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	11.1	-6.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	37.7	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	57.2	13.7
– Net Position:	34,153	-37,380	3,227
– Gross Longs:	77,499	72,532	29,604
– Gross Shorts:	43,346	109,912	26,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	24.8	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-5.6	-8.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	61.6	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	28.4	17.2
– Net Position:	-80,455	80,134	321
– Gross Longs:	44,918	148,972	41,873
– Gross Shorts:	125,373	68,838	41,552
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	68.8	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	10.3	-5.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	52.8	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	37.7	32.8
– Net Position:	-3,904	7,222	-3,318
– Gross Longs:	10,137	25,245	12,368
– Gross Shorts:	14,041	18,023	15,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	45.7	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-3.9	-1.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	54.4	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	57.1	16.0
– Net Position:	-2,388	-4,200	6,588
– Gross Longs:	39,101	86,763	32,032
– Gross Shorts:	41,489	90,963	25,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	48.9	37.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.6	-34.2	6.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	59.1	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.5	23.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-58,295	58,847	-552
– Gross Longs:	36,956	97,888	21,902
– Gross Shorts:	95,251	39,041	22,454
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	61.4	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	9.5	-12.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	45.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	45.9	8.8
– Net Position:	-1,040	-289	1,329
– Gross Longs:	14,114	16,682	4,588
– Gross Shorts:	15,154	16,971	3,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	44.0	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.9	-7.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 80,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	41.6	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	75.8	1.0
– Net Position:	80,393	-85,717	5,324
– Gross Longs:	132,808	103,931	7,803
– Gross Shorts:	52,415	189,648	2,479
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	10.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	0.6	16.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	38.1	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	64.4	1.6
– Net Position:	18,298	-20,424	2,126
– Gross Longs:	37,248	29,454	3,388
– Gross Shorts:	18,950	49,878	1,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	40.5	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	34.2	-15.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.9	6.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.6	1.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,798	1,017	781
– Gross Longs:	16,519	1,253	1,435
– Gross Shorts:	18,317	236	654
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	90.6	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-7.3	-6.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (21,325 contracts) with Silver (3,689 contracts), Platinum (3,208 contracts) and Palladium (917 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market leading the declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold (-21,683 contracts) with Steel (-255 contracts) also recording slightly lower bets for the week.

Metals – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (43.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (52.8 percent)
Silver (52.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.5 percent)
Copper (24.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.2 percent)
Platinum (42.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.8 percent)
Palladium (6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.9 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets were in negative 6-week trends. Steel (-9 percent) had the least negative trend score over the past six weeks for metals while Gold (-24 percent) came in as the market with the largest negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-8.4 percent)
Silver (-12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.3 percent)
Copper (-12.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.3 percent)
Platinum (-12.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-15.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.7 percent)
Steel (-8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 147,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	27.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	66.9	5.3
– Net Position:	147,791	-170,518	22,727
– Gross Longs:	219,222	117,525	45,364
– Gross Shorts:	71,431	288,043	22,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	55.7	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	23.1	-9.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	30.3	22.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	58.0	10.1
– Net Position:	21,426	-37,778	16,352
– Gross Longs:	52,778	41,387	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	31,352	79,165	13,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.1	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	13.9	-15.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	39.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	36.4	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,598	7,271	1,327
– Gross Longs:	71,100	90,929	17,116
– Gross Shorts:	79,698	83,658	15,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	77.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.4	-4.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	23.9	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	46.8	4.6
– Net Position:	11,549	-17,074	5,525
– Gross Longs:	43,818	17,727	8,942
– Gross Shorts:	32,269	34,801	3,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	58.2	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	9.2	13.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	9.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-10,700	10,302	398
– Gross Longs:	4,927	12,574	2,065
– Gross Shorts:	15,627	2,272	1,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	92.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	9.2	55.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	83.1	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	75.1	1.0
– Net Position:	-2,187	1,982	205
– Gross Longs:	2,612	20,479	440
– Gross Shorts:	4,799	18,497	235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.2	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	9.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

03 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,068 contracts) with Live Cattle (10,882 contracts), Wheat (6,327 contracts), Sugar (6,129 contracts), Cotton (4,112 contracts) and Coffee (3,221 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-34,583 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,316 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,677 contracts), Cocoa (-4,062 contracts) and with Corn (-5,632 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cocoa

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.7 percent)
Sugar (17.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (15.0 percent)
Coffee (85.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (81.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (7.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.3 percent)
Live Cattle (19.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.1 percent)
Cotton (40.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (37.4 percent)
Cocoa (83.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (87.2 percent)
Wheat (42.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.8 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (27 percent) and Coffee (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (10 percent), Live Cattle (3 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-36 percent), Soybean Oil (-13 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.4 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (11.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.7 percent)
Soybeans (-36.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-31.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-45.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-50.0 percent)
Live Cattle (3.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.8 percent)
Cotton (26.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.1 percent)
Cocoa (2.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.6 percent)
Wheat (0.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -224,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -219,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	46.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	31.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-224,832	241,727	-16,895
– Gross Longs:	266,671	745,348	154,099
– Gross Shorts:	491,503	503,621	170,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	5.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	56.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	67.5	6.1
– Net Position:	73,684	-96,000	22,316
– Gross Longs:	178,443	478,435	74,201
– Gross Shorts:	104,759	574,435	51,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	80.0	31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	5.8	0.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 56,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	35.1	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	61.0	3.4
– Net Position:	56,119	-58,218	2,099
– Gross Longs:	81,054	79,239	9,784
– Gross Shorts:	24,935	137,457	7,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	18.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-10.7	-1.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -140,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -34,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	60.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	39.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-140,577	155,822	-15,245
– Gross Longs:	77,880	453,583	49,226
– Gross Shorts:	218,457	297,761	64,471
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.4	35.8	-5.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	50.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	44.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-38,035	34,664	3,371
– Gross Longs:	99,948	289,600	32,569
– Gross Shorts:	137,983	254,936	29,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.8	-14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,932 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	51.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	47.5	6.8
– Net Position:	-33,932	17,882	16,050
– Gross Longs:	72,409	247,263	48,670
– Gross Shorts:	106,341	229,381	32,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.2	46.3	-16.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	38.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	51.0	12.4
– Net Position:	37,214	-33,950	-3,264
– Gross Longs:	84,392	107,858	31,065
– Gross Shorts:	47,178	141,808	34,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	81.2	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-3.8	0.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	38.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	32.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-9,794	14,796	-5,002
– Gross Longs:	73,083	84,878	18,722
– Gross Shorts:	82,877	70,082	23,724
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	82.7	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-11.0	3.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 42,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	45.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	64.1	4.7
– Net Position:	42,278	-46,586	4,308
– Gross Longs:	72,535	114,657	16,124
– Gross Shorts:	30,257	161,243	11,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	58.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.9	24.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 71,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	26.0	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	49.2	4.1
– Net Position:	71,694	-76,000	4,306
– Gross Longs:	126,534	84,962	17,615
– Gross Shorts:	54,840	160,962	13,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	15.7	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.1	23.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	36.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	25.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-36,455	43,840	-7,385
– Gross Longs:	118,028	149,787	30,571
– Gross Shorts:	154,483	105,947	37,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	59.3	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.4	-4.9

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