COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 20

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 5-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (45,688 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (29,660 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (13,850 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (12,797 contracts),the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10,849 contracts), the Fed Funds (9,032 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7,379 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only bond market with a decline in speculator bets was the SOFR 3-Months with a decrease of -49,251 contracts on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (99 percent) and the Fed Funds (82 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (32 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (82.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (80.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (46.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (45.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (98.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (88.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (57.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (53.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.6 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (1 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-19 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (1.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (18.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (31.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-18.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-33.4 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -487,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -49,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -438,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	60.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.6	0.4
– Net Position:	-487,408	489,903	-2,495
– Gross Longs:	1,397,251	6,434,234	35,655
– Gross Shorts:	1,884,659	5,944,331	38,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	64.9	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	18.6	0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 64,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	56.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	60.5	2.0
– Net Position:	64,283	-63,229	-1,054
– Gross Longs:	350,244	992,025	34,238
– Gross Shorts:	285,961	1,055,254	35,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	16.2	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-0.2	-8.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -979,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -993,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	56.9	4.0
– Net Position:	-979,819	826,543	153,276
– Gross Longs:	488,475	3,175,073	317,155
– Gross Shorts:	1,468,294	2,348,530	163,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	63.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.8	8.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,377,117 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 45,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,422,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	81.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	62.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,377,117	1,304,941	72,176
– Gross Longs:	390,636	5,430,187	485,314
– Gross Shorts:	1,767,753	4,125,246	413,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	97.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	17.9	-10.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -388,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -400,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	71.8	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	64.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-388,175	353,169	35,006
– Gross Longs:	498,320	3,520,410	485,757
– Gross Shorts:	886,495	3,167,241	450,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	40.2	81.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	0.4	5.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -230,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	73.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	60.0	13.1
– Net Position:	-230,765	310,709	-79,944
– Gross Longs:	257,569	1,680,482	220,053
– Gross Shorts:	488,334	1,369,773	299,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	90.5	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	5.2	-2.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	66.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	71.4	10.1
– Net Position:	43,836	-78,798	34,962
– Gross Longs:	278,502	1,131,701	205,371
– Gross Shorts:	234,666	1,210,499	170,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.0	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-18.7	-4.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -318,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -328,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	74.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	58.4	11.7
– Net Position:	-318,068	302,721	15,347
– Gross Longs:	152,466	1,383,342	232,468
– Gross Shorts:	470,534	1,080,621	217,121
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	44.6	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	4.9	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

02 Jun

Speculator Extremes: US Treasury Bond, Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 28th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

US Treasury Bond

The US Treasury Bond speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The US Treasury Bond speculator level is currently at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 20.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 43,836 net contracts this week with a gain of 29,660 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is now at a 96.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.3 this week. The speculator position registered 57,183 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,461 contracts in speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Copper speculator level resides at a 94.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 16.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 65,522 net contracts this week with a decrease of -6,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Platinum

The Platinum speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Platinum speculator level is at a 91.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 24.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 27,567 net contracts this week with a dip by -82 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week.

The speculator position was 120,919 net contracts this week with an increase of 3,027 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 5,105 net contracts this week with a reduction by-3,316 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The speculator position was -44,366 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,721 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Brazil Real speculator level resides at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -42.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,582 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,076 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.8 this week. The speculator position was -86,585 net contracts this week with a boost of 4,239 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 5.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,377,117 net contracts this week with an increase of 45,688 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

02 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was with the S&P500-Mini (20,566 contracts), the VIX (8,648 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,188 contracts), the Russell-Mini (3,739 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (609 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-8,444 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (-6,965 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (82 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (66 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (61.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (93.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (33.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (61.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (58.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (66.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (41.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.8 percent)

Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-21.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-21.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-11.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (5.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (3.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-2.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	40.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	30.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-42,744	41,398	1,346
– Gross Longs:	82,966	165,143	30,267
– Gross Shorts:	125,710	123,745	28,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.9	25.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	16.8	24.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	69.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-2,208	-105,944	108,152
– Gross Longs:	330,937	1,503,708	289,071
– Gross Shorts:	333,145	1,609,652	180,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	25.3	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	11.1	-1.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	54.9	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	73.1	11.3
– Net Position:	13,144	-17,654	4,510
– Gross Longs:	22,285	53,401	15,471
– Gross Shorts:	9,141	71,055	10,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	12.6	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-1.7	8.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	54.4	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	57.0	13.2
– Net Position:	-3,726	-6,683	10,409
– Gross Longs:	68,402	138,387	43,934
– Gross Shorts:	72,128	145,070	33,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	45.2	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	12.3	2.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	73.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	67.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-33,845	27,036	6,809
– Gross Longs:	82,901	343,514	27,628
– Gross Shorts:	116,746	316,478	20,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	37.8	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-4.5	8.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,245 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	61.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	61.2	15.5
– Net Position:	-1,636	49	1,587
– Gross Longs:	1,823	9,739	4,033
– Gross Shorts:	3,459	9,690	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	26.8	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.1	0.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	89.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	85.2	1.6
– Net Position:	-24,369	18,742	5,627
– Gross Longs:	29,861	381,756	12,467
– Gross Shorts:	54,230	363,014	6,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	19.1	0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

19 May

Currency Speculators raise Euro & US Dollar bets into positive levels

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (12,565 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (8,740 contracts), the British Pound (1,738 contracts), the Swiss Franc (680 contracts), the Mexican Peso (649 contracts), Bitcoin (606 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (582 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,655 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-11,082 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-616 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators raise Euro & US Dollar bets into positive levels

This week’s COT currency’s data saw a continued improvement in many currencies (EUR, USDIndex, GBP, JPY) that had seen their positions weakening significantly over the past few months. Overall, most of the currency positions remain in weak levels versus the US dollar as only the Mexican peso, the Euro and the USD Index currently have positive bullish speculator positions.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Euro positions continue to rebound after a deeply negative stretch in March and April that took -84,396 contracts off the speculator position and dropped the Euro contracts into a bearish position for the first time since September of 2022. This week the Euro bets rose by +12,565 contracts following last week’s +11,367 contract gain and has brought the speculator standing to a current level of +17,155 contracts. The Euro exchange rate has been on a 5-week winning streak as well and closed this week at the 1.0889 level against the US dollar.

The US dollar index positions rose modestly again this week and have now been higher for six consecutive weeks. This recent bullishness has taken the speculator standing back into bullish territory after the position dipped into negative or bearish levels in March for the first time since 2021.

Japanese yen speculator bets continued to improve for a third straight week after falling to a multi-year low of -179,919 contracts on April 23rd. The three-week improvement has totaled +53,737 contracts and coincided with a reported intervention in the currency markets by the Japanese government to stop a sharp slide in the yen. Despite the intervention, the yen’s exchange rate versus the dollar continues to be historically weak with the USDJPY currency pair closing the week right around the 155.60 level.

The Canadian dollar speculative position dropped for a second straight week this week and the current -80,303 contract level is the most bearish standing in a month for the CAD bets. The renewed bearishness for speculators has brought the CAD into extreme bearishness versus its range over the past three years with a 1.9 percent strength score. The Canadian dollar exchange rate remains in a down-trending channel versus the US dollar with our weekly trend model also considering the CAD to be in a downtrend at the moment. However, the CADUSD currency pair has recently bounced off a base of support around the 0.7250 level for the fourth time since 2022.

The Mexican Peso saw a small weekly gain by just 649 contracts but this broke a four-week losing streak that saw a total of -27,379 contracts subtracted from the overall bullish position. Despite the recent weakness in positions, the MXN speculative position has remained the most bullish currency versus the US dollar and has maintained a speculator position above the +100,000 contract level for eleven consecutive weeks. This is the best +100,000 contract streak since late-2019 into early-2020. The MXN exchange rate versus the USD has been trending strongly higher over the past three weeks with a gain of approximately 4 percent in these three weeks and has now brought the exchange rate into positive territory year-to-date.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by the Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (87 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (2 percent), the Swiss Franc (3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (10.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.8 percent)
EuroFX (27.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (40.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (28.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (28.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (86.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (86.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.7 percent)
Bitcoin (63.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.6 percent)

Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-39 percent), Swiss Franc (-33 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-42.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-37.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-35.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-14.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-39.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-52.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.3	19.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.6	28.6	5.1
– Net Position:	2,435	-3,790	1,355
– Gross Longs:	29,682	8,472	3,535
– Gross Shorts:	27,247	12,262	2,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.0	92.7	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-7.3	-9.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	59.0	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	64.9	8.4
– Net Position:	17,155	-38,282	21,127
– Gross Longs:	178,398	387,812	76,472
– Gross Shorts:	161,243	426,094	55,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	74.9	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.8	7.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	61.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	49.8	14.6
– Net Position:	-20,075	26,795	-6,720
– Gross Longs:	48,674	137,917	25,869
– Gross Shorts:	68,749	111,122	32,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	60.7	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.1	37.1	-5.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	72.7	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	27.9	15.6
– Net Position:	-126,182	133,294	-7,112
– Gross Longs:	35,303	216,442	39,446
– Gross Shorts:	161,485	83,148	46,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	71.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-3.8	-34.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -41,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a small weekly advance of 680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	79.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.6	22.0	24.0
– Net Position:	-41,107	51,769	-10,662
– Gross Longs:	6,646	71,745	11,121
– Gross Shorts:	47,753	19,976	21,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.6	90.2	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.4	19.6	25.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	66.8	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	31.4	13.8
– Net Position:	-80,303	78,220	2,083
– Gross Longs:	34,286	147,626	32,492
– Gross Shorts:	114,589	69,406	30,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	92.3	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	14.8	7.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -77,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -12,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	65.2	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.1	27.0	12.8
– Net Position:	-77,171	77,142	29
– Gross Longs:	40,059	131,596	25,881
– Gross Shorts:	117,230	54,454	25,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	69.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-28.3	31.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly dip of just -9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	58.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.8	36.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-11,200	12,162	-962
– Gross Longs:	19,284	32,451	3,683
– Gross Shorts:	30,484	20,289	4,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	70.3	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	3.6	28.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 112,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.9	41.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	86.2	1.3
– Net Position:	112,961	-116,601	3,640
– Gross Longs:	144,307	105,840	6,997
– Gross Shorts:	31,346	222,441	3,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	13.3	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	10.9	-13.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	78.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.7	15.9	3.4
– Net Position:	-38,259	38,249	10
– Gross Longs:	11,257	47,983	2,105
– Gross Shorts:	49,516	9,734	2,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.4	40.6	-17.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	4.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.5	5.6	3.4
– Net Position:	-177	-421	598
– Gross Longs:	21,078	1,099	1,519
– Gross Shorts:	21,255	1,520	921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	54.0	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	14.9	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

18 May

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Copper, Brazilian Real & Sugar lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 14th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 59,461 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,809 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Copper speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 42.2 this week. The speculator position registered 61,780 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -868 contracts in speculator bets.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Fed Funds speculator level resides at a 89.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 36.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 95,924 net contracts this week with a drop of -41,041 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -4,030 net contracts this week with a small dip of -40 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 86.9 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week.

The speculator position was 112,961 net contracts this week with a slight edge higher by 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,259 net contracts this week with a decline of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.1 this week. The speculator position was 25,891 net contracts this week with a decrease by -2,670 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -276,454 net contracts this week with a drop of -62,155 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.1 this week. The speculator position was -80,303 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,082 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

Finally, the Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 2.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.4 this week. The speculator position was -41,107 net contracts this week with a small boost of 680 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

18 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (10,787 contracts) with Silver (5,809 contracts), Gold (4,929 contracts) and Palladium (188 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-868 contracts) with Steel (-865 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Copper (99 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.3 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.0 percent)
Copper (99.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (83.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.5 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (80.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.4 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (42 percent) and Platinum (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-13 percent) and Palladium (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.1 percent)
Silver (8.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.9 percent)
Copper (42.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.2 percent)
Platinum (42.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.3 percent)
Palladium (-4.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.4 percent)
Steel (-13.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	25.5	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.9	4.8
– Net Position:	204,496	-232,110	27,614
– Gross Longs:	277,642	133,583	52,633
– Gross Shorts:	73,146	365,693	25,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	30.6	62.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-2.6	29.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	24.2	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	71.7	6.3
– Net Position:	59,461	-81,422	21,961
– Gross Longs:	87,936	41,532	32,735
– Gross Shorts:	28,475	122,954	10,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	88.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-15.9	41.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	22.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	44.5	5.5
– Net Position:	61,780	-69,656	7,876
– Gross Longs:	163,662	71,026	25,246
– Gross Shorts:	101,882	140,682	17,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	0.3	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.2	-39.0	-4.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.2	19.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	52.1	6.2
– Net Position:	24,447	-28,194	3,747
– Gross Longs:	53,314	17,181	9,115
– Gross Shorts:	28,867	45,375	5,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.4	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.3	-37.9	-22.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	47.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.1	10.1	6.0
– Net Position:	-10,900	10,276	624
– Gross Longs:	6,110	13,034	2,271
– Gross Shorts:	17,010	2,758	1,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	83.1	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.6	36.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	80.4	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	65.1	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,248	4,091	157
– Gross Longs:	3,573	21,523	437
– Gross Shorts:	7,821	17,432	280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	20.2	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	13.8	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by the 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (133,809 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (57,247 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (28,956 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-162,256 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-65,115 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-62,155 contracts), the Fed Funds (-41,041 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-15,038 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (89 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (85 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (33 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (89.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (97.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (32.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (29.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (38.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (74.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (58.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (39.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (42.7 percent)

Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (36 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-39 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (67.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-6.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-0.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-27.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-39.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -404,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -65,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	59.4	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	55.5	0.5
– Net Position:	-404,677	408,357	-3,680
– Gross Longs:	1,389,581	6,209,318	49,269
– Gross Shorts:	1,794,258	5,800,961	52,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.7	85.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-39.1	38.9	3.2

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	56.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	62.1	2.6
– Net Position:	95,924	-85,206	-10,718
– Gross Longs:	329,136	894,232	29,503
– Gross Shorts:	233,212	979,438	40,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.1	11.6	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.1	-33.8	-19.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -964,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 57,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,022,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.6	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	58.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-964,986	832,486	132,500
– Gross Longs:	541,411	3,178,396	264,452
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,397	2,345,910	131,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	63.6	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.8	7.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,326,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -162,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,163,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	84.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	64.8	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,326,105	1,242,371	83,734
– Gross Longs:	469,333	5,284,344	412,489
– Gross Shorts:	1,795,438	4,041,973	328,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	92.9	80.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	4.5	-3.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -347,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 133,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -481,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	68.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-347,811	351,641	-3,830
– Gross Longs:	522,351	3,378,701	409,062
– Gross Shorts:	870,162	3,027,060	412,892
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	40.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-23.8	-7.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -276,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -62,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	76.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	60.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-276,454	348,749	-72,295
– Gross Longs:	253,058	1,655,031	212,855
– Gross Shorts:	529,512	1,306,282	285,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	99.8	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.1	33.7	-2.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	71.3	10.0
– Net Position:	4,287	-46,304	42,017
– Gross Longs:	271,919	1,116,694	204,299
– Gross Shorts:	267,632	1,162,998	162,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	0.0	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-23.9	1.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -331,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	80.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	61.1	9.7
– Net Position:	-331,153	319,430	11,723
– Gross Longs:	147,454	1,332,490	171,656
– Gross Shorts:	478,607	1,013,060	159,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	53.0	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	2.4	12.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (7,109 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (5,933 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (651 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-15,589 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,427 contracts), the VIX (-9,182 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-1,235 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (63 percent) and Russell-Mini (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (63.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (73.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (86.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (74.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (44.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (46.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (62.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (58.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (51.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (38.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.9 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (13 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-7 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (7.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (23.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-18.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-7.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-19.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-6.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -48,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	41.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	30.5	6.9
– Net Position:	-48,061	47,902	159
– Gross Longs:	96,769	180,775	30,036
– Gross Shorts:	144,830	132,873	29,877
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.1	32.1	97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-6.2	17.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -25,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,695 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	71.0	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	74.5	8.6
– Net Position:	-25,284	-73,047	98,331
– Gross Longs:	273,398	1,477,881	278,004
– Gross Shorts:	298,682	1,550,928	179,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	29.8	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-7.2	-0.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	57.5	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	76.8	11.5
– Net Position:	15,773	-19,177	3,404
– Gross Longs:	24,739	57,006	14,802
– Gross Shorts:	8,966	76,183	11,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.0	10.4	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	0.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 3,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	53.7	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	58.2	13.3
– Net Position:	3,170	-11,068	7,898
– Gross Longs:	68,869	133,543	41,056
– Gross Shorts:	65,699	144,611	33,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	40.4	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-10.4	2.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	73.7	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	68.7	4.4
– Net Position:	-32,067	23,332	8,735
– Gross Longs:	82,124	343,687	29,283
– Gross Shorts:	114,191	320,355	20,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	35.5	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	7.4	-5.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,756 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	65.5	23.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	57.0	14.3
– Net Position:	-2,756	1,346	1,410
– Gross Longs:	1,798	10,397	3,674
– Gross Shorts:	4,554	9,051	2,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	39.1	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	7.1	-13.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -27,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	90.8	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	85.8	1.4
– Net Position:	-27,423	21,201	6,222
– Gross Longs:	24,475	378,438	12,043
– Gross Shorts:	51,898	357,237	5,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	58.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	19.3	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (31,578 contracts) with Wheat (12,370 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,815 contracts), Cocoa (1,396 contracts), Live Cattle (1,184 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,021 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-6,315 contracts), Soybeans (-5,927 contracts), Coffee (-5,666 contracts), Sugar (-2,670 contracts) and with Cotton (-1,737 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (82 percent) and Wheat (64 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Soybean Oil (4 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.9 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.0 percent)
Coffee (81.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.2 percent)
Soybeans (31.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (32.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.7 percent)
Live Cattle (27.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.2 percent)
Cotton (13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.8 percent)
Cocoa (38.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.1 percent)
Wheat (63.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (55.2 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (50 percent) and Wheat (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (23 percent) and Soybeans (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-62 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-33 percent), Soybean Oil (-29 percent) and Live Cattle (-17 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.7 percent)
Sugar (-33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-26.0 percent)
Coffee (-10.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.7 percent)
Soybeans (21.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-26.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (49.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-16.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-9.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (3.0 percent)
Cotton (-62.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-60.6 percent)
Cocoa (-5.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.0 percent)
Wheat (38.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 31,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	41.8	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	39.1	11.8
– Net Position:	224	40,405	-40,629
– Gross Longs:	337,217	632,478	138,445
– Gross Shorts:	336,993	592,073	179,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	67.9	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-20.2	-38.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	53.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	54.4	9.0
– Net Position:	25,891	-11,459	-14,432
– Gross Longs:	209,791	439,623	60,523
– Gross Shorts:	183,900	451,082	74,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.1	35.1	-39.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 57,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	36.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	63.0	3.0
– Net Position:	57,211	-59,694	2,483
– Gross Longs:	77,228	81,022	9,092
– Gross Shorts:	20,017	140,716	6,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.6	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.4	8.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	59.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	48.5	9.3
– Net Position:	-65,975	81,604	-15,629
– Gross Longs:	112,139	446,696	54,657
– Gross Shorts:	178,114	365,092	70,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	70.8	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-20.4	-11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -50,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	53.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	44.5	5.2
– Net Position:	-50,532	47,181	3,351
– Gross Longs:	109,303	288,450	31,814
– Gross Shorts:	159,835	241,269	28,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	95.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	26.5	-6.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 82,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	38.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	62.1	5.3
– Net Position:	82,785	-109,370	26,585
– Gross Longs:	150,611	176,885	50,993
– Gross Shorts:	67,826	286,255	24,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	34.4	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.7	-52.8	54.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	35.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	48.9	12.6
– Net Position:	44,659	-37,742	-6,917
– Gross Longs:	100,002	94,857	27,263
– Gross Shorts:	55,343	132,599	34,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	76.6	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	18.9	-0.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	36.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	46.0	9.8
– Net Position:	32,041	-26,444	-5,597
– Gross Longs:	93,393	101,191	21,492
– Gross Shorts:	61,352	127,635	27,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	44.8	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	9.0	5.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 6,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	44.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	45.9	6.7
– Net Position:	6,399	-4,249	-2,150
– Gross Longs:	68,159	97,259	12,682
– Gross Shorts:	61,760	101,508	14,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	87.5	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.0	62.9	-63.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	35.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.6	3.6
– Net Position:	27,958	-33,568	5,610
– Gross Longs:	45,316	52,231	10,914
– Gross Shorts:	17,358	85,799	5,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	58.4	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.4	-5.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,370 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	35.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	32.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-5,415	14,159	-8,744
– Gross Longs:	132,484	141,475	28,160
– Gross Shorts:	137,899	127,316	36,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	37.3	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.1	-33.8	-40.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 May

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro & USD Index out of bearish levels

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (33,466 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,719 contracts), the EuroFX (11,367 contracts), the British Pound (7,177 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (1,888 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies with declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-37,929 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,733 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-6,020 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,640 contracts), Bitcoin (-789 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-1 contract) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boost Yen bets, bring Euro, USD Index out of bearish levels

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is that both the Euro and the US dollar index speculator positions were modestly boosted out of their bearish levels into small positive positions. Also, the Japanese yen and Australian dollar positions were well bid through Tuesday.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Japanese yen contracts jumped this week by over +33,000 contracts which marked the highest one-week amount since 2020. The yen speculator position has now gained for two weeks in a row amid rumored currency intervention by the Japanese authorities that are trying to arrest deep declines in the yen. The USDJPY currency pair still trades over 155.00 which is close to over thirty-year highs for the US dollar against the yen.

The Australian dollar speculator position rose strongly this week by over +18,000 contracts following a boost by +13,004 contracts on April 30th. The AUD speculator bets have now gained for three straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks. Recently, the speculator position for the Aussie had dropped to an all-time record low on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts. Since then, speculator bets have improved significantly and are currently at -64,516 contracts.

The Euro bounced back again this week with a gain of +11,367 contracts and a follows up a small rise last week. The improvement in the overall net position has brought the speculative standing back into bullish territory following two straight weeks in bearish territory. That was the first time the Euro contracts had been in bearish territory since September of 2022.

The US dollar index bets also came out of bearish territory this week for the first time in seven weeks. The USD Index bets rose by 1,888 contracts and gained for the fifth straight week. The contracts had been in bullish territory for a total of 142 straight weeks before dropping into a bearish position on March 26th.

The Mexican Peso speculative position decreased this week for a fourth straight week but did so modestly (-6,733 contracts) and remains in a strong bullish level. The MXN speculator’s current standing (+112,312 contracts) remains above +100,000 contract level for 1oth consecutive week. The MXN peso exchange rate has bounced back with gains in the past two weeks after a steep pullback in the middle of April.

The Swiss franc position was virtually unchanged this week (-1 contract) but continues to remain near the lowest levels since 2019 at a total of -41,787 contracts. The franc is one of the most extremely bearish markets in the COT data we follow. The franc’s exchange rate against the US dollar has been on the decline with an approximate drop by over 8 percent since December 2023. The CHFUSD currently trades around the major levels near 1.1050 – 1.1100.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (87 percent) and the Bitcoin (55 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (39 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (9 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.8 percent)
EuroFX (22.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (38.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (7.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (86.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (89.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (43.0 percent)
Bitcoin (54.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.5 percent)

Australian Dollar & US Dollar Index top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (37 percent) and the US Dollar Index (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Bitcoin (4 percent), the Japanese Yen (-4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-38 percent), Swiss Franc (-35 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-37.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-54.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-37.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-14.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-23.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-52.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.4 percent)
Bitcoin (4.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.2	21.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.9	29.4	5.2
– Net Position:	1,853	-3,392	1,539
– Gross Longs:	28,881	9,260	3,753
– Gross Shorts:	27,028	12,652	2,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	93.5	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-5.0	-1.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	60.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	63.5	8.8
– Net Position:	4,590	-22,279	17,689
– Gross Longs:	170,594	393,845	75,156
– Gross Shorts:	166,004	416,124	57,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	80.9	7.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	11.9	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	63.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	48.7	14.6
– Net Position:	-21,813	32,970	-11,157
– Gross Longs:	51,777	141,835	21,445
– Gross Shorts:	73,590	108,865	32,602
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	64.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.8	39.2	-26.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -134,922 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 33,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -168,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	73.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	25.9	14.7
– Net Position:	-134,922	141,773	-6,851
– Gross Longs:	34,990	219,305	37,333
– Gross Shorts:	169,912	77,532	44,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	76.9	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	7.5	-20.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.9	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	21.7	23.1
– Net Position:	-41,787	53,109	-11,322
– Gross Longs:	9,237	73,684	10,557
– Gross Shorts:	51,024	20,575	21,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	92.2	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	23.5	18.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	68.5	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	35.3	14.9
– Net Position:	-69,221	71,845	-2,624
– Gross Longs:	32,945	148,390	29,719
– Gross Shorts:	102,166	76,545	32,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	88.7	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	10.0	3.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	64.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	29.8	13.3
– Net Position:	-64,516	72,522	-8,006
– Gross Longs:	49,480	135,023	19,859
– Gross Shorts:	113,996	62,501	27,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.9	66.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.0	-33.2	11.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	60.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.2	35.4	10.3
– Net Position:	-11,191	13,792	-2,601
– Gross Longs:	19,060	33,531	3,124
– Gross Shorts:	30,251	19,739	5,725
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	74.3	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	14.8	-11.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	40.9	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	88.1	1.1
– Net Position:	112,312	-116,374	4,062
– Gross Longs:	137,564	101,075	6,829
– Gross Shorts:	25,252	217,449	2,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.6	13.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.2	-9.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -37,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	79.9	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.3	16.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-37,643	37,468	175
– Gross Longs:	9,546	46,966	2,236
– Gross Shorts:	47,189	9,498	2,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.6	54.1	-22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -783 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.4	4.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	4.0	3.6
– Net Position:	-783	134	649
– Gross Longs:	20,770	1,181	1,588
– Gross Shorts:	21,553	1,047	939
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	68.1	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	0.6	-7.2

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