COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 16

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (112,070 contracts) with Soybeans (102,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (41,851 contracts), Wheat (6,671 contracts) and Soybean Oil (4,889 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-13,582 contracts), Sugar (-11,744 contracts), Cotton (-11,086 contracts), Coffee (-5,713 contracts), Live Cattle (-328 contracts) and with Cocoa (-590 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Lean Hogs (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (58 percent) and Wheat (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent) and Cotton (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.2 percent)
Coffee (87.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybeans (32.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (40.6 percent)
Live Cattle (25.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (72.3 percent)
Cotton (14.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.2 percent)
Cocoa (37.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (37.7 percent)
Wheat (55.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (50.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (43 percent) and Wheat (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (22 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Coffee (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-61 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-26 percent), Sugar (-26 percent) and Live Cattle (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.1 percent)
Sugar (-26.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (6.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (22.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (42.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-25.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-32.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (3.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.0 percent)
Cotton (-60.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-54.5 percent)
Cocoa (-10.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-18.8 percent)
Wheat (30.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (21.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -31,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 112,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	42.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	38.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-31,354	56,642	-25,288
– Gross Longs:	311,911	621,487	139,562
– Gross Shorts:	343,265	564,845	164,850
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.0	74.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-18.3	-11.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	53.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	56.1	8.4
– Net Position:	28,561	-25,176	-3,385
– Gross Longs:	200,063	438,212	65,992
– Gross Shorts:	171,502	463,388	69,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	27.9	-28.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 62,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	35.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	64.2	2.7
– Net Position:	62,877	-66,039	3,162
– Gross Longs:	85,054	79,896	9,211
– Gross Shorts:	22,177	145,935	6,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	12.4	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-8.1	21.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -60,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	57.4	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	47.4	8.8
– Net Position:	-60,048	74,323	-14,275
– Gross Longs:	123,324	426,277	51,042
– Gross Shorts:	183,372	351,954	65,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	69.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-21.4	-4.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	53.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	44.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-51,553	50,351	1,202
– Gross Longs:	113,697	293,066	30,181
– Gross Shorts:	165,250	242,715	28,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	97.3	18.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	24.4	-7.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 73,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	40.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	61.0	5.5
– Net Position:	73,970	-95,405	21,435
– Gross Longs:	139,373	182,605	46,648
– Gross Shorts:	65,403	278,010	25,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.9	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.5	-43.0	21.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	36.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	49.8	11.9
– Net Position:	43,475	-37,324	-6,151
– Gross Longs:	96,844	98,469	26,308
– Gross Shorts:	53,369	135,793	32,459
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	77.1	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	26.5	9.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 38,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	35.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	46.4	9.8
– Net Position:	38,356	-31,763	-6,593
– Gross Longs:	100,612	103,759	22,074
– Gross Shorts:	62,256	135,522	28,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	40.0	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.6	-3.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	44.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	48.0	6.0
– Net Position:	8,136	-7,960	-176
– Gross Longs:	66,141	93,741	12,568
– Gross Shorts:	58,005	101,701	12,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	85.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-60.6	60.5	-52.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	35.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	57.1	3.9
– Net Position:	26,562	-32,495	5,933
– Gross Longs:	44,579	51,829	11,641
– Gross Shorts:	18,017	84,324	5,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	59.5	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.9	-1.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	29.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-17,785	27,005	-9,220
– Gross Longs:	122,686	135,193	25,281
– Gross Shorts:	140,471	108,188	34,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	46.8	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-25.7	-40.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

11 May

Speculator Extremes: Copper, Fed Funds, Brazil Real & Sugar top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Copper speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 40.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 62,648 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Fed Funds speculator level is now at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 67.7 this week. The speculator position registered 136,965 net contracts this week with a weekly surge higher of 126,619 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 92.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 53,652 net contracts this week with a small dip by -842 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 88.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -3,990 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,015 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 87.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.7 this week.

The speculator position was 62,877 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,713 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -52.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -37,643 net contracts this week with a gigantic drop by -37,929 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.0 this week. The speculator position was 28,561 net contracts this week with a decrease by -11,744 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level resides at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -35.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -41,787 net contracts this week with a tiny decline by just -1 contract in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 3.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.1 this week. The speculator position was -51,553 net contracts this week with an increase of 4,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 8.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.2 this week. The speculator position was 1,853 net contracts this week with a change of 1,888 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

04 May

FX Speculators reduce bearish bets for Yen, Canadian & Australian Dollars

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian & Australian Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,249 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (13,004 contracts), the Japanese Yen (11,531 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,496 contracts), EuroFX (3,212 contracts), the Swiss Franc (776 contracts), the US Dollar Index (178 contracts) and Bitcoin (6 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,610 contracts), the British Pound (-2,757 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-678 contracts).

Speculators reduce bearish bets for Yen, Canadian & Australian Dollars

This week’s COT currency’s data was mixed in the overall big picture and saw a pause in some of the major trends. There were many extremely weak currency positions (JPY, AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR) that saw a little turnaround for the week in their speculator bets while the extremely strong Mexican peso saw a little slide in its bullishness. The US dollar continues to remain in a strong speculative position overall versus just about all of the major currencies except the peso.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The British pound sterling speculator was one of the currencies that saw a weaker position on the week and contracts have now fallen for two consecutive weeks. The GBP bets have also dropped in six out of the last 7 weeks for a total 7-week change of -99,441 contracts — illuminating the deteriorating sentiment for the GBP. This has dropped the current speculator contract level to a new lowpoint since January 2023.

The Euro bounced back very slightly this week with a gain of +3,212 contracts. The overall net position, however, is now in bearish territory for a second straight week. This is the first time the Euro contracts have been bearish since September of 2022.

The Canadian dollar speculative position has bounced back with two weeks of gains following eight straight weeks of declines. The overall net position (currently at -63,201 contracts) remains extremely bearish with the current strength level at 15 percent of the past three-years range of positions.

Swiss franc speculator positions remain extremely bearish (1 percent strength score) and the overall net speculator position is greater than -40,000 contracts for a second consecutive week. The franc spec positioning is at the lowest levels since 2019.

The Japanese yen contracts got a little relief this week from the continued downtrend with a rise of +11,531 contracts. Previously, the JPY contracts had dropped in 13 out of 15 weeks for a -123,970 contract decline over those 15 weeks. The current speculative sentiment remains near the lowest standing since 2007. The Japanese authorities likely intervened in the currency markets earlier this week in order to pause the steep decline in the yen and the yen managed to end the week higher by approximately 3 percent vs the USD.

The Australian dollar speculator position saw improvement for a second straight week this week with a gain of +13,004 contracts through Tuesday. The Aussie spec position and sentiment have been historically bearish over the past few months with an all-time record low position reached on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts. The current positioning level sits at -83,235 contracts.

The Mexican Peso remains the one strong currency in the mix against the US dollar. The MXN speculative position has fallen for three straight weeks but remains in a very strong position with a current total of +119,045 contracts. The MXN speculator level has remained above the +100,000 level for nine consecutive weeks which is the first time that type of streak has taken place since late-2019 into early-2020. The MXN exchange rate versus the USD has experienced a pullback over the past month but remains slightly higher for 2024 so far and closed this week higher by over 1 percent.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and Bitcoin (66 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the US Dollar Index (5 percent), the Japanese Yen (7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) and the EuroFX (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (34.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (7.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (92.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (24.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.2 percent)
Bitcoin (66.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.4 percent)

Bitcoin & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (32 percent) and the Australian Dollar (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The British Pound (-54 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-38 percent), Japanese Yen (-33 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.5 percent)
EuroFX (-23.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-35.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-54.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-64.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-32.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-48.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-37.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-44.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-19.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-34.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-23.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-41.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-4.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.7 percent)
Bitcoin (31.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.9	20.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.9	24.8	4.5
– Net Position:	-35	-2,189	2,224
– Gross Longs:	33,593	9,894	4,410
– Gross Shorts:	33,628	12,083	2,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	96.0	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-1.0	14.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,989 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	61.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	62.8	8.5
– Net Position:	-6,777	-10,737	17,514
– Gross Longs:	167,185	399,163	73,035
– Gross Shorts:	173,962	409,900	55,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	85.2	6.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	23.7	-13.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	68.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	50.4	15.2
– Net Position:	-28,990	43,560	-14,570
– Gross Longs:	43,668	162,366	21,215
– Gross Shorts:	72,658	118,806	35,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	70.1	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.5	56.6	-37.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -168,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	73.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.5	14.8
– Net Position:	-168,388	176,122	-7,734
– Gross Longs:	40,435	244,920	41,917
– Gross Shorts:	208,823	68,798	49,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	98.1	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.8	37.7	-27.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	79.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	20.4	25.9
– Net Position:	-41,786	58,283	-16,497
– Gross Longs:	11,040	78,446	9,120
– Gross Shorts:	52,826	20,163	25,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	100.0	2.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.9	37.3	-16.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -63,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	68.2	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	34.9	16.8
– Net Position:	-63,201	70,490	-7,289
– Gross Longs:	33,793	144,359	28,321
– Gross Shorts:	96,994	73,869	35,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	87.9	6.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	16.7	-6.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -83,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	70.2	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	29.0	13.3
– Net Position:	-83,235	92,394	-9,159
– Gross Longs:	41,293	157,629	20,613
– Gross Shorts:	124,528	65,235	29,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	81.8	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-17.1	-1.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	57.7	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	39.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-8,551	10,607	-2,056
– Gross Longs:	21,514	33,942	3,253
– Gross Shorts:	30,065	23,335	5,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	66.5	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	25.9	-29.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 119,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	38.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	87.9	1.2
– Net Position:	119,045	-123,325	4,280
– Gross Longs:	144,679	95,715	7,175
– Gross Shorts:	25,634	219,040	2,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	10.1	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.6	-0.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.0	49.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	49.3	2.0
– Net Position:	286	-321	35
– Gross Longs:	47,281	49,305	2,074
– Gross Shorts:	46,995	49,626	2,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	76.3	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	17.8	-20.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 0 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	5.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.9	7.3	3.8
– Net Position:	6	-530	524
– Gross Longs:	19,569	1,291	1,461
– Gross Shorts:	19,563	1,821	937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	51.2	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.6	-45.4	-7.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 May

Speculator Extremes: Copper, Silver & Commodities Index lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 30th 2024.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Copper

The Copper speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Copper speculator level is currently at a 99.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 27.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 58,064 net contracts this week with a small decline of -330 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is now at a 93.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 2.9 this week. The speculator position registered 54,494 net contracts this week with a weekly drop of -4,846 contracts in speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 21.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,975 net contracts this week with an edge up by just 4 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 17.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 68,590 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,324 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 24.2 this week.

The speculator position was -22,433 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,433 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -56,442 net contracts this week with a sharp fall by -25,101 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.9 this week. The speculator position was -41,786 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 776 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -263,683 net contracts this week with a decrease of -24,156 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.5 this week. The speculator position was -35 net contracts this week with a gain of 178 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

Finally, the Sugar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 5.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.5 this week. The speculator position was 40,305 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,796 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

04 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,319 contracts) with Steel (1,136 contracts) also recording a positive contract week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-4,846 contracts), Palladium (-1,912 contracts), Platinum (-667 contracts) and with Copper (-330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (100 percent), Silver (93 percent) and Steel (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.8 percent)
Silver (93.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (99.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.0 percent)
Palladium (15.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (86.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.8 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (28 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.6 percent)
Silver (2.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (25.5 percent)
Copper (27.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.3 percent)
Platinum (1.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.1 percent)
Palladium (-6.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.7 percent)
Steel (-0.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	24.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	68.2	5.2
– Net Position:	204,210	-227,498	23,288
– Gross Longs:	278,850	126,925	50,274
– Gross Shorts:	74,640	354,423	26,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	32.5	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.1	23.6

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 54,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	24.5	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.7	7.0
– Net Position:	54,494	-75,196	20,702
– Gross Longs:	83,094	40,745	32,309
– Gross Shorts:	28,600	115,941	11,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.3	2.7	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-13.6	51.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	22.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	45.2	5.0
– Net Position:	58,064	-66,642	8,578
– Gross Longs:	152,807	66,105	23,247
– Gross Shorts:	94,743	132,747	14,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.6	0.0	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.8	-26.9	6.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	25.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	41.3	4.2
– Net Position:	6,797	-12,570	5,773
– Gross Longs:	42,532	20,552	9,143
– Gross Shorts:	35,735	33,122	3,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	60.6	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	1.3	-13.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	56.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	10.6	7.3
– Net Position:	-11,070	10,780	290
– Gross Longs:	5,433	13,294	2,011
– Gross Shorts:	16,503	2,514	1,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	86.5	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	3.3	30.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	80.3	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	69.7	1.1
– Net Position:	-2,663	2,571	92
– Gross Longs:	3,629	19,477	357
– Gross Shorts:	6,292	16,906	265
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	14.4	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.6	-1.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

04 May

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3M & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as eight out of the nine bond markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with an increase in speculator bets this week was the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 1-Month) with a gain of 25,936 contracts.

Leading the declines for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (-82,906 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-79,045 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-56,309 contracts), and the Fed Funds (-48,918 contracts),the 2-Year Bonds (-35,717 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-24,156 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,645 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-1,943 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Fed Funds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (21 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (70.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (20.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (24.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (60.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (65.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (48.3 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (44 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-32 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (43.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (54.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-31.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -315,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	58.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	55.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-315,283	320,426	-5,143
– Gross Longs:	1,553,395	5,975,693	37,317
– Gross Shorts:	1,868,678	5,655,267	42,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	56.2	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	32.0	-0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	63.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	63.5	2.2
– Net Position:	10,346	-8,820	-1,526
– Gross Longs:	342,285	1,170,635	38,611
– Gross Shorts:	331,939	1,179,455	40,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	27.8	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-42.7	-8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,016,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -980,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	80.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	58.7	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,016,443	878,770	137,673
– Gross Longs:	487,267	3,289,154	265,541
– Gross Shorts:	1,503,710	2,410,384	127,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	67.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.6	9.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,146,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -56,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,090,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	83.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	66.2	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,146,598	1,051,309	95,289
– Gross Longs:	434,860	5,032,454	422,885
– Gross Shorts:	1,581,458	3,981,145	327,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	78.2	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.4	1.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -432,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -79,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.3	9.7
– Net Position:	-432,965	457,279	-24,314
– Gross Longs:	451,643	3,428,368	405,462
– Gross Shorts:	884,608	2,971,089	429,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	53.5	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-8.8	-15.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	77.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	60.8	14.0
– Net Position:	-263,683	349,548	-85,865
– Gross Longs:	224,117	1,605,733	202,627
– Gross Shorts:	487,800	1,256,185	288,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	100.0	63.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	28.4	-3.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	70.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	70.5	10.5
– Net Position:	-23,114	-4,607	27,721
– Gross Longs:	258,380	1,105,551	192,864
– Gross Shorts:	281,494	1,110,158	165,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	13.0	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	6.2	-10.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-310,145	309,147	998
– Gross Longs:	139,075	1,318,512	176,104
– Gross Shorts:	449,220	1,009,365	175,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	47.8	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	11.1	-15.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

04 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,935 contracts) with Soybean Meal (17,676 contracts) and Corn (16,744 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-25,101 contracts), Cotton (-9,637 contracts), Soybeans (-7,773 contracts), Sugar (-4,796 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,678 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,750 contracts), Coffee (-3,324 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,432 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (93 percent) and Lean Hogs (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Sugar (5 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and the Corn (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (13.5 percent)
Sugar (5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.9 percent)
Coffee (92.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.0 percent)
Soybeans (7.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (15.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (40.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (30.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (76.2 percent)
Cotton (23.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.4 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.1 percent)
Wheat (50.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.4 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (32 percent) and Wheat (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (18 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and Corn (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-32 percent) and Soybean Oil (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.1 percent)
Soybeans (1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (31.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-32.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-27.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (20.2 percent)
Cotton (-54.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-51.7 percent)
Cocoa (-18.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (21.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -143,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	32.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-143,424	157,105	-13,681
– Gross Longs:	284,015	624,235	138,688
– Gross Shorts:	427,439	467,130	152,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	83.4	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-3.5	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	55.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	58.8	8.9
– Net Position:	40,305	-29,820	-10,485
– Gross Longs:	199,571	460,096	63,606
– Gross Shorts:	159,266	489,916	74,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	100.0	2.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	20.8	-21.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	34.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	65.4	2.0
– Net Position:	68,590	-72,156	3,566
– Gross Longs:	93,006	81,941	8,361
– Gross Shorts:	24,416	154,097	4,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	6.5	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-20.0	29.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -162,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	61.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	38.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-162,343	168,676	-6,333
– Gross Longs:	92,100	447,805	52,018
– Gross Shorts:	254,443	279,129	58,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	91.4	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.7	17.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -56,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	52.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	42.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-56,442	55,356	1,086
– Gross Longs:	109,597	290,371	31,192
– Gross Shorts:	166,039	235,015	30,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	21.3	-10.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	43.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	54.5	5.9
– Net Position:	32,119	-49,108	16,989
– Gross Longs:	130,740	191,673	43,016
– Gross Shorts:	98,621	240,781	26,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	58.3	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.9	-31.5	7.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	49.2	11.6
– Net Position:	43,803	-38,088	-5,715
– Gross Longs:	99,665	97,729	26,257
– Gross Shorts:	55,862	135,817	31,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	76.2	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	33.8	12.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	34.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	48.6	10.4
– Net Position:	51,938	-43,257	-8,681
– Gross Longs:	116,668	102,259	22,574
– Gross Shorts:	64,730	145,516	31,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	29.6	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-12.8	-18.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	43.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	52.8	6.5
– Net Position:	19,222	-18,831	-391
– Gross Longs:	71,065	89,336	12,824
– Gross Shorts:	51,843	108,167	13,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.6	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.5	55.4	-56.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	33.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	54.8	4.1
– Net Position:	27,152	-32,122	4,970
– Gross Longs:	46,931	51,146	11,182
– Gross Shorts:	19,779	83,268	6,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	19.3	-6.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	36.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	27.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-24,456	32,562	-8,106
– Gross Longs:	120,889	132,764	26,535
– Gross Shorts:	145,345	100,202	34,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-18.8	-27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

04 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower speculator net contract positions.

Leading the declines for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (-24,545 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,498 contracts), the VIX (-4,433 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,189 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-3,353 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,654 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-407 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (68.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (48.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (54.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (24 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (45.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (10.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	40.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	33.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-22,433	28,429	-5,996
– Gross Longs:	91,655	152,812	26,276
– Gross Shorts:	114,088	124,383	32,272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.8	10.7	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-22.3	-10.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	76.9	8.6
– Net Position:	43,133	-150,593	107,460
– Gross Longs:	272,813	1,392,147	279,080
– Gross Shorts:	229,680	1,542,740	171,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	19.1	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-36.0	9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	63.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	70.7	12.8
– Net Position:	5,198	-6,639	1,441
– Gross Longs:	17,883	56,959	12,944
– Gross Shorts:	12,685	63,598	11,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	28.6	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	26.1	-3.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	55.1	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	60.8	13.0
– Net Position:	2,772	-14,557	11,785
– Gross Longs:	60,312	139,475	44,588
– Gross Shorts:	57,540	154,032	32,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	36.5	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	3.3	13.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	77.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	70.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-40,289	35,892	4,397
– Gross Longs:	70,255	372,284	26,725
– Gross Shorts:	110,544	336,392	22,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	43.5	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	19.6	-12.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	71.2	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	65.6	16.1
– Net Position:	-1,791	909	882
– Gross Longs:	1,161	11,519	3,490
– Gross Shorts:	2,952	10,610	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	36.2	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	8.1	-13.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	90.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	88.9	1.6
– Net Position:	-11,145	5,989	5,156
– Gross Longs:	27,229	384,166	12,135
– Gross Shorts:	38,374	378,177	6,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	43.2	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	4.7	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

28 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (103,933 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (8,119 contracts) and the Fed Funds (536 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-104,410 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-34,423 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-25,928 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-5,407 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-3,700 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (81 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (76 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (66 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (81.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (33.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (49.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (76.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (65.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (67.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (48.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (53.7 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (54 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (12 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-34 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-21.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (11.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-12.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -104,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -127,967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	58.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	56.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-232,377	237,071	-4,694
– Gross Longs:	1,467,240	5,894,339	33,941
– Gross Shorts:	1,699,617	5,657,268	38,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	51.8	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.1	34.0	0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	61.8	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	64.8	2.2
– Net Position:	59,264	-57,401	-1,863
– Gross Longs:	397,936	1,161,610	40,379
– Gross Shorts:	338,672	1,219,011	42,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	17.5	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.5	-53.5	-6.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -980,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -946,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	79.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	58.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-980,726	855,608	125,118
– Gross Longs:	518,847	3,206,411	264,099
– Gross Shorts:	1,499,573	2,350,803	138,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	65.3	91.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	2.7	2.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,090,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 103,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,194,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	66.7	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,090,289	970,956	119,333
– Gross Longs:	458,988	4,946,205	426,940
– Gross Shorts:	1,549,277	3,975,249	307,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	72.0	88.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-13.7	1.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -353,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -362,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	67.9	9.1
– Net Position:	-353,920	356,954	-3,034
– Gross Longs:	546,367	3,404,137	405,097
– Gross Shorts:	900,287	3,047,183	408,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	40.7	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-26.0	-9.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	76.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	61.3	14.0
– Net Position:	-239,527	318,016	-78,489
– Gross Longs:	234,270	1,578,675	209,370
– Gross Shorts:	473,797	1,260,659	287,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8	93.6	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	27.7	-3.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	70.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	71.1	10.5
– Net Position:	-21,171	-14,335	35,506
– Gross Longs:	252,737	1,086,997	198,692
– Gross Shorts:	273,908	1,101,332	163,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	9.1	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-5.3	-14.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -298,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	61.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-298,500	302,463	-3,963
– Gross Longs:	142,473	1,297,057	173,986
– Gross Shorts:	440,973	994,594	177,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.8	44.5	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-0.3	-16.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

28 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (4,474 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,350 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,985 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-6,827 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (-6,436 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,404 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (96 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (75 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (71 percent) and Nikkei 225 (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (75.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (48.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (57.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (72.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (62.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (60.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (46 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (34 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) and the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (25.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (45.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (41.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (7.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (17.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	41.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	34.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-18,000	23,471	-5,471
– Gross Longs:	89,831	150,091	24,178
– Gross Shorts:	107,831	126,620	29,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	5.2	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-29.9	-20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	67.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	77.0	8.0
– Net Position:	67,678	-189,951	122,273
– Gross Longs:	320,552	1,402,033	288,399
– Gross Shorts:	252,874	1,591,984	166,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.8	13.7	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.9	-45.8	9.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	62.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	70.5	13.2
– Net Position:	6,852	-7,730	878
– Gross Longs:	19,266	56,280	12,873
– Gross Shorts:	12,414	64,010	11,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	27.0	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.6	-6.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	55.3	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	62.5	12.3
– Net Position:	6,125	-18,478	12,353
– Gross Longs:	63,431	141,714	43,786
– Gross Shorts:	57,306	160,192	31,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	32.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-10.8	12.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	77.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	71.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-36,100	30,140	5,960
– Gross Longs:	72,411	371,751	27,723
– Gross Shorts:	108,511	341,611	21,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	39.8	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	9.7	6.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	69.6	24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	69.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-1,384	11	1,373
– Gross Longs:	922	10,929	3,849
– Gross Shorts:	2,306	10,918	2,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	30.3	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-3.2	-11.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.4	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	89.8	1.6
– Net Position:	-3,647	-1,739	5,386
– Gross Longs:	31,113	377,781	12,016
– Gross Shorts:	34,760	379,520	6,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	35.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-14.1	-17.4

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