COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 15

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Fed Funds and Ultra Treasury Bonds lead Speculator Bets this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (38,246 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (24,696 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (22,628 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2,306 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-202,389 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-74,384 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-53,898 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-36,591 contracts) and with the 10-Year Bonds (-18,845 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Price Changes:

– US Treasury Long bonds: up over 1%
– 10-year bond: up just under 1%
– 5-year bond: up 0.5%
– 2-year bond: up 0.25%
– Fed bonds and shorter duration bonds: basically unchanged

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (97 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (56 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (34.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (27.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (55.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (96.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (50.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (63.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.2 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (18 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-41 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-24.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-7.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-40.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-55.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-13.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (14.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-29.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-26.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 38,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	67.7	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	62.2	2.1
– Net Position:	-106,475	93,223	13,252
– Gross Longs:	230,849	1,149,922	49,699
– Gross Shorts:	337,324	1,056,699	36,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.9	59.0	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	0.1	-2.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,132,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -202,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -930,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	63.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	53.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-1,132,456	1,118,673	13,783
– Gross Longs:	1,291,149	7,445,466	51,781
– Gross Shorts:	2,423,605	6,326,793	37,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	97.5	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	28.6	7.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -74,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -53,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	61.5	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	54.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-74,749	78,663	-3,914
– Gross Longs:	186,662	725,834	1,456
– Gross Shorts:	261,411	647,171	5,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.9	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	14.0	-3.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,180,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -36,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,143,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	77.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	51.1	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,180,516	1,050,501	130,015
– Gross Longs:	585,398	3,073,993	242,461
– Gross Shorts:	1,765,914	2,023,492	112,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	76.2	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-1.9	-1.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,470,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -74,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,396,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	85.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	51.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,470,920	2,303,366	167,554
– Gross Longs:	416,395	5,797,061	414,640
– Gross Shorts:	2,887,315	3,493,695	247,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	80.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	11.1	-10.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -724,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -705,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	77.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	63.9	7.5
– Net Position:	-724,101	645,726	78,375
– Gross Longs:	541,692	3,667,589	431,976
– Gross Shorts:	1,265,793	3,021,863	353,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	57.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-8.6	-21.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -369,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	79.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	61.2	11.6
– Net Position:	-369,282	416,219	-46,937
– Gross Longs:	238,872	1,840,747	223,564
– Gross Shorts:	608,154	1,424,528	270,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	92.0	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	51.2	-21.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	75.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	76.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-79,745	-9,503	89,248
– Gross Longs:	177,328	1,304,982	229,114
– Gross Shorts:	257,073	1,314,485	139,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	36.2	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-0.5	-3.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -203,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	82.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	71.0	9.3
– Net Position:	-203,747	213,290	-9,543
– Gross Longs:	136,921	1,562,597	167,180
– Gross Shorts:	340,668	1,349,307	176,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	23.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-1.7	-46.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

15 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Lean Hogs & Live Cattle lead Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,426 contracts) with Live Cattle (11,892 contracts), Soybeans (10,449 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,403 contracts), Wheat (3,211 contracts) and Coffee (2,289 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-15,671 contracts), Corn (-14,435 contracts), Cotton (-4,430 contracts), Soybean Oil (-685 contracts) and with Cocoa (-232 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Price changes for the week:

– Soybean oil: up almost 6%
– Soybeans: higher by almost 2%
– Lean hogs: rose 1.4%
– Soybean meal: up 1%
– Coffee: down almost 4%
– Cocoa: down almost 3.5%
– Sugar, live cattle, wheat, corn: down over 1%
– Cotton: down almost half a percent

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (92 percent) and Lean Hogs (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Coffee (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (4 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and the Wheat (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (23.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.4 percent)
Coffee (62.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.0 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.3 percent)
Cotton (15.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.2 percent)
Cocoa (29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (17.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.3 percent)

Lean Hogs & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (12 percent), Soybeans (3 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Soybean Oil (-16 percent) and Cotton (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-36.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-41.0 percent)
Sugar (-18.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybeans (2.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.7 percent)
Live Cattle (11.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-15.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.4 percent)
Cocoa (1.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.0 percent)
Wheat (16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -95,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	45.9	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	38.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-95,494	114,551	-19,057
– Gross Longs:	321,967	740,542	153,928
– Gross Shorts:	417,461	625,991	172,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	74.5	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	36.9	32.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	51.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	48.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-19,515	26,368	-6,853
– Gross Longs:	217,346	464,706	71,741
– Gross Shorts:	236,861	438,338	78,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.7	11.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	16.5	-3.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	40.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	66.0	4.3
– Net Position:	37,306	-39,846	2,540
– Gross Longs:	48,931	65,047	9,338
– Gross Shorts:	11,625	104,893	6,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	38.9	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.8	-6.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	48.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	55.2	7.5
– Net Position:	70,396	-58,118	-12,278
– Gross Longs:	190,383	415,951	52,035
– Gross Shorts:	119,987	474,069	64,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	28.4	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-5.2	21.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	57.9	4.6
– Net Position:	41,254	-47,032	5,778
– Gross Longs:	122,719	289,840	32,315
– Gross Shorts:	81,465	336,872	26,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	37.6	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	17.2	-24.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	49.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	45.2	5.6
– Net Position:	-48,116	26,910	21,206
– Gross Longs:	119,357	301,664	55,209
– Gross Shorts:	167,473	274,754	34,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	88.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.4	16.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	27.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	51.4	13.8
– Net Position:	115,175	-94,472	-20,703
– Gross Longs:	198,415	104,793	32,758
– Gross Shorts:	83,240	199,265	53,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	7.3	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.1	-1.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	27.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	48.2	8.3
– Net Position:	80,002	-75,715	-4,287
– Gross Longs:	154,806	99,967	26,019
– Gross Shorts:	74,804	175,682	30,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	6.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.9	-35.1	-23.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	48.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	32.3	5.9
– Net Position:	-36,670	36,928	-258
– Gross Longs:	63,049	111,610	13,415
– Gross Shorts:	99,719	74,682	13,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	85.8	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	12.9	17.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	36.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	62.0	5.7
– Net Position:	19,238	-25,428	6,190
– Gross Longs:	32,877	36,613	11,881
– Gross Shorts:	13,639	62,041	5,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	67.9	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-3.8	20.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -93,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	38.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	17.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-93,863	93,573	290
– Gross Longs:	108,768	168,704	37,049
– Gross Shorts:	202,631	75,131	36,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	85.2	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-12.5	-38.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Jun

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (3,290 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,047 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (712 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (703 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-16,046 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,863 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,548 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,975 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-583 contracts), the British Pound (-164 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-38 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

Highlighting the Currency Speculator data this week, was a bounce back into bullish territory for the U.S. Dollar Index. This week’s data marks the first bullish level in the past seven weeks as speculators have now advanced their weekly bullish bets modestly for a fourth straight week.

The U.S. Dollar has been on the defensive against most of the other major currencies this year and the Dollar Index price has fallen under the significant psychological level of 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023. The U.S. Dollar is currently down approximately 10% since the beginning of the new year coinciding with a dip in speculator sentiment as well.

Roundup: Currency Speculator Positioning

Japanese Yen: – Speculators pulled back somewhat sharply in the latest data (-12,863 contracts). The yen continues to have an extreme bullish strength score with the speculator position near the top of its range of over +151,000 net contracts.
Brazilian Real: – Speculators dropped their bullish bets also relatively sharply in the latest data. The BRL is coming off of a record high speculator position in the past couple of months.
Euro: – The 2nd most bullish currency (after the yen) with a net position of over 80,000 contracts. The Euro has advanced by over 11% this year and the price trend has been mostly consolidating between the 1.12 – 1.15 area in recent weeks.
Mexican Peso: – The Peso continues to be in a bullish position, near +65,000 contracts after a gain of 3,000 contracts this week.
British Pound Sterling: Rounds out the bullish currencies with a +35,000 net speculator contract position. The GBP has gained by over 10% this year and is now trading at the highest level since 2022 above 1.3500.
Swiss Franc: The CHF remains in a bearish net position despite the strength of its currency which has risen over 10% this year. The CHF trades near the highest levels since 2015.
New Zealand and Australian Dollars: – These currencies continue to have negative net speculator positions, although both currencies have seen their prices on the uptrend since the beginning of the new year.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance:

– The Brazilian Real rose by over 2.35% in the past 5 days.
– The Mexican Peso was up by 1.5%.
– The Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar all were higher by less than 1%.
– The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline on the week.
– Bitcoin was also virtually unchanged, while the Japanese Yen fell by -0.5%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (92 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bitcoin (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.5 percent)
EuroFX (60.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (92.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.6 percent)
Bitcoin (0.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.7 percent)

Mexican Peso, GBP & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (12 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-7.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-32.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-62.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	28.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	25.2	13.2
– Net Position:	617	968	-1,585
– Gross Longs:	15,748	8,021	2,123
– Gross Shorts:	15,131	7,053	3,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	96.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.0	-7.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	73.7	5.8
– Net Position:	82,764	-138,285	55,521
– Gross Longs:	202,786	437,677	100,625
– Gross Shorts:	120,022	575,962	45,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	34.1	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.9	5.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	31.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.9	9.9
– Net Position:	35,215	-48,965	13,750
– Gross Longs:	103,672	74,588	36,963
– Gross Shorts:	68,457	123,553	23,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	43.6	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-9.7	18.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 151,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	27.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	75.3	5.5
– Net Position:	151,149	-175,508	24,359
– Gross Longs:	189,514	100,151	44,497
– Gross Shorts:	38,365	275,659	20,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	6.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.4	2.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	63.8	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	32.0	18.7
– Net Position:	-26,066	25,884	182
– Gross Longs:	7,145	51,879	15,409
– Gross Shorts:	33,211	25,995	15,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	41.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-1.4	6.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	38.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-108,446	110,625	-2,179
– Gross Longs:	18,667	214,704	23,967
– Gross Shorts:	127,113	104,079	26,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.5	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.9	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	64.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	34.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-63,155	61,195	1,960
– Gross Longs:	23,969	130,735	23,307
– Gross Shorts:	87,124	69,540	21,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.4	-5.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	41.1	6.4
– Net Position:	-23,674	23,601	73
– Gross Longs:	9,531	51,514	4,419
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	27,913	4,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	60.7	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-4.3	8.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	32.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	72.4	2.1
– Net Position:	64,449	-66,946	2,497
– Gross Longs:	93,401	55,198	6,108
– Gross Shorts:	28,952	122,144	3,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	39.8	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.6	7.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.3	30.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	70.6	1.0
– Net Position:	30,793	-33,919	3,126
– Gross Longs:	54,954	26,403	4,014
– Gross Shorts:	24,161	60,322	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	14.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	8.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.7	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,949	363
– Gross Longs:	24,084	2,407	1,341
– Gross Shorts:	26,396	458	978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	29.8	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Brent, Silver, Ultra 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 10,280 net contracts this week with a gain of 14,712 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225* speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 35 points at last data. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts with a recent weekly change of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last provided data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level now resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 20 points this week while the overall speculator position was 60,770 net contracts this week with a boost by 7,758 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position has cooled off a bit but does come in at number four in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -7 points this week. The overall speculator position was 151,149 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -12,863 contracts in the speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level now sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a gain of 18 points this week.

The speculator position was 2,201 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,337 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56 points this week. The overall speculator position was -371,588 net contracts this week with a reduction by -73,325 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 points this week while the speculator position was -2,396,536 net contracts this week with a change of -63,299 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -54,519 net contracts this week with a decrease by -5,366 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain by 3 points this week. The speculator position was 617 net contracts this week with an advance by 703 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

08 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,721 contracts) with Silver (7,758 contracts), Copper (1,513 contracts) and Palladium (233 contracts) having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,294 contracts) and with Steel (-1,279 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets rose this week for the third straight this week after having fallen in the previous four weeks. Currently, the gold speculator bets are up to their highest level in the past seven weeks. Silver bets meanwhile, also rose for the third straight week and they are now at their highest level in the past ten weeks, dating back to March 25th.

Metals Price Performance in last 5-Days:

– Platinum was the big riser with a 10% gain.
– Silver was up by 9%.
– Palladium over 7.5%.
– Copper rose by 3%.
– Gold was up by 0.5%.
– Steel was down by 9% in the last 5 days.
– All of the metals markets have been up by at least 5% or more in the last 90 days, with platinum & gold up by approximately 20% and steel up by almost 20%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Steel (68 percent) and Platinum (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (50 percent) and Gold (52 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.4 percent)
Silver (92.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.1 percent)
Copper (55.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (54.3 percent)
Platinum (63.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (75.9 percent)
Palladium (49.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (48.0 percent)
Steel (67.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (34 percent) and Palladium (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-10.6 percent)
Silver (20.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (11.5 percent)
Copper (-0.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.9 percent)
Platinum (34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.7 percent)
Palladium (26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (18.6 percent)
Steel (-12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.4	17.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.1	4.6
– Net Position:	187,905	-220,826	32,921
– Gross Longs:	246,982	70,905	51,996
– Gross Shorts:	59,077	291,731	19,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	42.8	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.7	23.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	20.0	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	68.5	7.1
– Net Position:	60,770	-79,141	18,371
– Gross Longs:	81,981	32,689	29,969
– Gross Shorts:	21,211	111,830	11,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	6.9	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-16.3	-6.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	30.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	43.3	5.5
– Net Position:	24,094	-27,013	2,919
– Gross Longs:	71,249	64,639	14,562
– Gross Shorts:	47,155	91,652	11,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	47.2	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.9	24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	17.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	41.5	7.5
– Net Position:	20,049	-23,233	3,184
– Gross Longs:	59,019	16,293	10,349
– Gross Shorts:	38,970	39,526	7,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	40.8	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-26.0	-32.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	46.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.5	11.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-7,293	6,502	791
– Gross Longs:	6,570	8,498	2,336
– Gross Shorts:	13,863	1,996	1,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	46.9	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-26.0	-6.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	69.9	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-1,544	1,434	110
– Gross Longs:	7,698	22,265	274
– Gross Shorts:	9,242	20,831	164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	33.1	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	12.1	23.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

08 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR-3M, Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (124,899 contracts) with the Fed Funds (119,342 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (64,348 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5,029 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-73,325 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-69,131 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-63,299 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-48,483 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-24,022 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Price Performance Bonds last 5-Days:

– Fed funds were virtually unchanged.

– The 3-month secured overnight financing rate was down by -0.5%.

– The 2-year bond was down by -0.5%.

– The 5-year bond was down by approximately -0.90%.

– The longer bonds, the 10-year and the U.S. Treasury bonds were down by approximately -1%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the Fed Funds (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (27.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (5.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (36.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (87.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (63.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (80.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (5.8 percent)

10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-56 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-26 percent) and the Fed Funds (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-24.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-47.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-55.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-41.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (14.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (37.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-26.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-29.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -144,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 119,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -264,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	69.4	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	61.1	1.8
– Net Position:	-144,721	133,095	11,626
– Gross Longs:	199,894	1,110,998	40,360
– Gross Shorts:	344,615	977,903	28,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.9	66.2	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	23.6	3.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -930,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 124,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,054,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	62.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	54.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-930,067	910,329	19,738
– Gross Longs:	1,318,995	7,061,972	55,811
– Gross Shorts:	2,249,062	6,151,643	36,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	86.7	94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	25.3	8.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -69,131 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	59.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	57.6	0.5
– Net Position:	-20,851	24,789	-3,938
– Gross Longs:	192,954	671,822	1,242
– Gross Shorts:	213,805	647,033	5,180
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	37.6	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-13.7	-8.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,143,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,119,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	77.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	50.5	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,143,925	1,024,516	119,409
– Gross Longs:	574,694	2,957,205	233,429
– Gross Shorts:	1,718,619	1,932,689	114,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	74.0	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-13.2	0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,396,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -63,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,333,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	51.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,396,536	2,224,020	172,516
– Gross Longs:	480,671	5,740,780	412,729
– Gross Shorts:	2,877,207	3,516,760	240,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	11.7	-4.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -705,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 64,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -769,604 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	78.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-705,256	633,320	71,936
– Gross Longs:	509,034	3,739,243	415,931
– Gross Shorts:	1,214,290	3,105,923	343,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	56.3	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-19.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -371,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -73,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	79.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	60.6	12.2
– Net Position:	-371,588	444,200	-72,612
– Gross Longs:	221,697	1,838,381	207,577
– Gross Shorts:	593,285	1,394,181	280,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.8	72.3	-34.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,373 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -48,483 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	75.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	74.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-102,373	14,702	87,671
– Gross Longs:	190,607	1,322,293	228,215
– Gross Shorts:	292,980	1,307,591	140,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	43.2	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.5	7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -228,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	70.0	9.4
– Net Position:	-228,443	230,330	-1,887
– Gross Longs:	125,006	1,564,328	177,487
– Gross Shorts:	353,449	1,333,998	179,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	30.4	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	5.4	-36.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

08 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Sugar & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Sugar & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (7,873 contracts) with Live Cattle (2,639 contracts) and Wheat (1,681 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-60,726 contracts), Sugar (-23,347 contracts), Soybean Oil (-19,146 contracts), Soybeans (-12,614 contracts), Coffee (-5,498 contracts), Soybean Meal (-5,366 contracts), Cotton (-2,876 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,642 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

The Soft Commodities Price Performance last 5 days:

– Coffee was the leader with a gain of over 5%.

– Live cattle and wheat rose by over 3%.

– Cotton rose by over 2%.

– Lean hogs, soybeans, and soybean oil all increased by 1% or more.

– On the downside, soybean meal and sugar fell by over 1 percent, while cocoa fell by 4%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (80 percent) and Lean Hogs (79 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (66 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Coffee (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (5 percent), Sugar (9 percent), Wheat (15 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.4 percent)
Sugar (9.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.8 percent)
Coffee (59.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (65.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (69.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (65.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (75.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (80.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (73.2 percent)
Cotton (18.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (29.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (31.5 percent)
Wheat (15.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.0 percent)

Lean Hogs & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (27 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent) and Cocoa (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Corn (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-12 percent), Soybean Oil (-10 percent) and Soybean Meal (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-41.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-34.6 percent)
Sugar (-11.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.3 percent)
Coffee (-5.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-10.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-10.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.4 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cocoa (4.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -60,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	47.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	40.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-81,059	104,725	-23,666
– Gross Longs:	317,410	788,104	143,729
– Gross Shorts:	398,469	683,379	167,395
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	73.1	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.0	40.3	40.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	50.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	49.5	7.9
– Net Position:	-3,844	10,707	-6,863
– Gross Longs:	214,220	445,078	62,137
– Gross Shorts:	218,064	434,371	69,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	93.5	11.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.7	-8.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	42.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	65.4	4.3
– Net Position:	35,017	-37,065	2,048
– Gross Longs:	47,810	66,385	8,810
– Gross Shorts:	12,793	103,450	6,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	41.6	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.0	-3.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	49.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	54.4	7.3
– Net Position:	59,947	-44,377	-15,570
– Gross Longs:	191,916	432,650	48,642
– Gross Shorts:	131,969	477,027	64,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	32.1	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-3.5	22.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	48.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	56.6	4.4
– Net Position:	41,939	-47,789	5,850
– Gross Longs:	131,752	289,547	31,814
– Gross Shorts:	89,813	337,336	25,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	37.3	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	9.8	-3.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -54,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	47.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	42.9	5.4
– Net Position:	-54,519	30,447	24,072
– Gross Longs:	124,108	290,014	56,843
– Gross Shorts:	178,627	259,567	32,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.0	89.8	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	6.7	36.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,644 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	28.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	48.7	12.8
– Net Position:	103,283	-83,165	-20,118
– Gross Longs:	202,063	116,851	32,540
– Gross Shorts:	98,780	200,016	52,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	21.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.8	1.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,576 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	28.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	46.6	8.3
– Net Position:	66,576	-62,402	-4,174
– Gross Longs:	139,541	99,654	24,579
– Gross Shorts:	72,965	162,056	28,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	17.5	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-27.9	-15.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	48.8	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	34.8	5.6
– Net Position:	-32,240	33,480	-1,240
– Gross Longs:	63,272	116,837	12,169
– Gross Shorts:	95,512	83,357	13,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	83.9	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	3.4	9.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	35.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	61.4	5.6
– Net Position:	19,470	-25,602	6,132
– Gross Longs:	31,567	35,938	11,764
– Gross Shorts:	12,097	61,540	5,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	67.8	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-6.8	30.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -97,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	38.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	18.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-97,074	95,778	1,296
– Gross Longs:	112,261	182,990	36,752
– Gross Shorts:	209,335	87,212	35,456
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	87.2	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.9	-10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Jun

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (2,367 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,337 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-16,445 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-7,588 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,362 contracts), the Nikkei 225 Yen (-679 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-201 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last updated data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Stock Markets Price Performance:

Last 5 days:
– Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets: gains over 2%
– NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and EAFE: gains over 1%
– VIX: down by over 3%

Last 30 days:
– All markets have gained except VIX
– VIX: down over 30%

Last 90 days:
– Emerging markets, EAFE, and Nikkei 225 are leading the markets higher
– VIX: up approximately 16% while US Markets around breakeven

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (92 percent) leads the stock markets this week. The VIX (88 percent) and DowJones-Mini (78 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 Yen (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (85.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (69.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (78.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (61.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (65.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (73.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (79.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (92.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (89.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (16 percent) and the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (9.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (17.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-35.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-3.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	42.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	41.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-3,398	3,419	-21
– Gross Longs:	81,723	120,140	25,406
– Gross Shorts:	85,121	116,721	25,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	13.9	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	0.3	-14.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -69,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	73.4	8.7
– Net Position:	-69,415	9,046	60,369
– Gross Longs:	253,198	1,567,386	245,466
– Gross Shorts:	322,613	1,558,340	185,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	36.2	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-4.1	8.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	57.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	69.0	14.9
– Net Position:	10,977	-9,577	-1,400
– Gross Longs:	17,459	47,552	10,908
– Gross Shorts:	6,482	57,129	12,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	24.3	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-14.2	-1.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.3	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	57.7	15.3
– Net Position:	14,670	-9,454	-5,216
– Gross Longs:	82,789	150,507	37,275
– Gross Shorts:	68,119	159,961	42,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	43.4	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.7	29.8	-9.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	71.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	67.8	6.5
– Net Position:	-12,045	16,193	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	79,926	318,071	24,826
– Gross Shorts:	91,971	301,878	28,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	33.9	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	12.9	-44.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	88.3	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	90.1	1.0
– Net Position:	2,201	-8,388	6,187
– Gross Longs:	44,626	427,946	11,119
– Gross Shorts:	42,425	436,334	4,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	16.2	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-18.3	9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

26 May

Speculator Bets led lower by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real, USD Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower overall by Canadian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other ten markets had lower speculator contracts.

The currency with a gain this week was the US Dollar Index that showed a small rise of 69 contracts on the week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-21,705 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-17,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-10,321 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-9,731 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,938 contracts), British Pound (-3,223 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,174 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,125 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,040 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-698 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Position Roundup:

The latest data (through Tuesday May 20th) showed that all currency speculator positions pulled back, except for the US Dollar Index. However, the US Dollar Index only had a small rise and actually remains in a very small net speculator bearish position of -546 contracts as of Tuesday.

Overall, most currencies’ speculator positions remain in a bullish state against the US Dollar, including the Japanese Yen, which is not too far off its all-time record high that has was reached recently on April 29th at +179,212 contracts. The Euro is currently at approximately +75,000 contracts and has been in an overall bullish position for the past 11 weeks. The British Pound has also been in a bullish position for 13 straight weeks and is around +24,000 contracts at the moment.

The Mexican Peso has been mostly bullish since 2023 and is currently at approximately +62,000 contracts, which is above its average for 2025 (of around +34,000 weekly contracts). In comparison, the Mexican Peso contracts averaged +68,482 weekly contracts over the whole of 2024 which included a 15-week streak of over +100,000 contracts from March of 2024 to June 2024.

The Brazilian Real recently hit an all-time high and remains bullish for a 16th consecutive week at over +26,000 contracts.

The only speculator positions with negative positions right now against the US Dollar are the Swiss Franc, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Canadian Dollar and Bitcoin.

Euro Speculator Bets

The Euro speculator bets dipped this week by over 10,000 contracts for its largest pullback since early April. However, this speculator contract has been on the rise strongly since February, with gains in 10 out of the last 14 weeks. The 14-week rise has been over a total +138,000 contracts to bring the Euro position from a -64,425 contract position on February 11th to this week’s total of +74,453 contracts.

Bitcoin Speculator Contracts

The Bitcoin speculator positions have been in overall bearish territory for the last five weeks. Bitcoin contracts seem to be behaving similarly to some of the stock market contracts, which exhibit the behavior of hedging among the speculators. As the Bitcoin price has been going up, the contracts speculators have been going more bearish and vice versa. The Bitcoin price has been rising rapidly lately and reaching all-time record high prices despite the bearish speculator bets.

Exchange Rate Market

The US Dollar Index fell sharply on the week and closed under the significant 100 level, ending the week around the 99.30 level.

The Euro, the Pound, the Yen, the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and the New Zealand Dollar, despite the fall in speculator contracts, all had positive weeks against the US Dollar in the exchange rate markets.

Last week, the Mexican Peso was up for the third time in the last four weeks, while the Brazilian Real also squeaked out a positive week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (66 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (61 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the Swiss Franc (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Bitcoin (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.4 percent)
EuroFX (57.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (61.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (96.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (54.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (41.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.9 percent)
Bitcoin (8.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.3 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (12 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Bitcoin (-72 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-15 percent), US Dollar Index (-7 percent) and the Australian Dollar (3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-7.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.9 percent)
EuroFX (5.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (12.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (5.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (39.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-71.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-28.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -615 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	27.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.1	21.5	11.8
– Net Position:	-546	1,870	-1,324
– Gross Longs:	17,583	8,369	2,252
– Gross Shorts:	18,129	6,499	3,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	97.8	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	8.8	-13.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	55.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	72.5	5.5
– Net Position:	74,453	-126,830	52,377
– Gross Longs:	206,042	423,456	94,072
– Gross Shorts:	131,589	550,286	41,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	38.0	89.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-12.4	48.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 23,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	29.5	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	46.8	12.0
– Net Position:	23,993	-33,817	9,824
– Gross Longs:	88,144	57,675	33,168
– Gross Shorts:	64,151	91,492	23,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	49.9	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-7.5	23.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 167,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.0	27.8	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	77.2	6.8
– Net Position:	167,330	-181,021	13,691
– Gross Longs:	194,510	102,102	38,497
– Gross Shorts:	27,180	283,123	24,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.7	5.3	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.9	-2.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -698 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	70.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	36.3	20.6
– Net Position:	-23,767	25,298	-1,531
– Gross Longs:	7,632	51,871	13,558
– Gross Shorts:	31,399	26,573	15,089
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	40.8	72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-20.4	25.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	38.9	11.7
– Net Position:	-103,861	112,982	-9,121
– Gross Longs:	22,629	216,736	22,213
– Gross Shorts:	126,490	103,754	31,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.4	61.5	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-7.0	3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -59,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	68.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	34.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-59,077	59,536	-459
– Gross Longs:	20,997	121,279	20,781
– Gross Shorts:	80,074	61,743	21,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	65.4	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-6.4	17.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -23,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	76.3	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	36.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-23,652	24,260	-608
– Gross Longs:	9,981	46,591	3,626
– Gross Shorts:	33,633	22,331	4,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	61.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-19.1	19.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	29.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	76.0	3.0
– Net Position:	62,532	-64,062	1,530
– Gross Longs:	89,323	40,078	5,579
– Gross Shorts:	26,791	104,140	4,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	41.3	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-14.3	24.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	31.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	70.9	1.3
– Net Position:	26,289	-36,167	9,878
– Gross Longs:	51,552	28,734	11,113
– Gross Shorts:	25,263	64,901	1,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	9.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	27.6	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	8.3	48.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.4	6.6	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	1.3	3.8
– Net Position:	-1,952	1,692	260
– Gross Longs:	24,142	2,121	1,466
– Gross Shorts:	26,094	429	1,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	100.0	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-71.7	61.1	36.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 May

Speculator Extremes: JPY, Ultra 10-Year lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 20th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the JPY speculator level is currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise 6 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 167,330 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,938 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level leveled this week at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a boost 35 points this week. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the VIX speculator level resides at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a boost by 16 points this week. The overall speculator position was 4,424 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 13 points this week. The overall speculator position was 774 net contracts this week with a drop of -1,935 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Live Cattle speculator level at a 81 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 points this week.

The speculator position was 103,416 net contracts this week with a dip by -7,231 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a zero percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -55 points this week. The overall speculator position was -328,444 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -8,837 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is at just 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12 points this week. The speculator position was -2,275,941 net contracts this week with a drop by -95,898 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 points this week. The overall speculator position was -58,173 net contracts this week with a reduction by -7,245 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the USD Index speculator level now at 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 points this week. The speculator position was -546 net contracts this week with a small advance of 69 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -72 points this week. The speculator position was -1,952 net contracts this week with a decrease by -1,125 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

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