COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 13

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Brent, VIX, 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 15.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,495 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is also now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 17.0 this week. The speculator position registered 10,943 net contracts this week with a weekly rise by 6,703 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The JPY speculator level resides at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase of 14.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 176,859 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,353 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with an advance by 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 37.0 this week.

The speculator position was 32,847 net contracts this week with a change of 1,984 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,296,496 net contracts this week with a reduction by -3,952 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -30.0 this week. The speculator position was -31,610 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,576 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The USD Index speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score is -18.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,108 net contracts this week with a decrease of -659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.0 this week. The speculator position was -107,537 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -65.0 this week. The speculator position was -1,781 net contracts this week with a dip lower by -550 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

04 May

Speculators boost Brazilian Real and Japanese Yen Bets to New Record Highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (18,451 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (18,347 contracts), the EuroFX (10,769 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (5,372 contracts), the Australian Dollar (4,639 contracts), the British Pound (3,469 contracts), the Japanese Yen (1,398 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,160 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (525 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets were Bitcoin (-425 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-38 contracts) also seeing a tiny decline on the week.

Speculators boost Brazilian Real and Japanese Yen Bets to New Record Highs

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is new record high speculator levels for the both the Brazilian real and Japanese yen.

First up, the Brazilian real rose by over +18,000 contracts this week and have now risen for four straight weeks (by a total of over 31,000 contracts) to land at a total of 68,338 contracts. This is now the highest on record and surpasses the previous high of +50,496 contracts that was established on March 8th of 2022.

This has been sharp and swift turnaround for the BRL as net positions were negative as recent as January 28th. The overall net position had been in bearish territory from May 7th of 2024 continuously through January 28th of 2025 before turning bullish. February 4th saw a huge jump by over +38,000 contracts in just that week and set in motion the current bullish sentiment trend.

The Brazilian real exchange rate has been on the move higher since hitting a record low in December of 2024. Since that record low position, the currency has improved by over 10% versus the US dollar. The Brazilian real exchange rate has now risen in 13 out of the last 18 weeks but despite the all-time record high in speculative bets, the currency still resides at a relatively low level compared to the last 3 years, 5 years and 10 years time-frames.

The Japanese yen speculator bets also continued higher with new all-time high record levels. The yen speculator positions have made new all-time record highs for the fourth consecutive week and landed this week at +179,212 net contracts. The yen positions have risen higher in 13 out of the last 15 weeks for a cumulative gain of +208,623 net contracts over that 15 week period.

The yen exchange rate, however, has dipped in the last couple weeks following 3 consecutive weeks of gains versus the US dollar. The yen exchange rate, like the Brazilian real, remains historically low despite the all-time record high in speculator bets.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (59 percent), EuroFX (58 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Bitcoin (24 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (40 percent) and the Australian Dollar (41 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.7 percent)
EuroFX (57.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (53.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (37.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (59.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (100.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (85.0 percent)
Bitcoin (24.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.7 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (22 percent), the Swiss Franc (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-67 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-16 percent) and the British Pound (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-15.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-36.9 percent)
EuroFX (6.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (19.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-2.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (20.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (23.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (33.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (30.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (5.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (6.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-67.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-50.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	28.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.5	23.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-449	1,548	-1,099
– Gross Longs:	19,093	9,388	2,515
– Gross Shorts:	19,542	7,840	3,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	97.1	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	16.3	-8.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 75,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	55.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	73.0	5.7
– Net Position:	75,797	-131,511	55,714
– Gross Longs:	196,388	401,746	97,376
– Gross Shorts:	120,591	533,257	41,662
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	36.4	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-13.3	50.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	28.7	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	44.2	13.4
– Net Position:	23,959	-29,723	5,764
– Gross Longs:	91,064	55,263	31,474
– Gross Shorts:	67,105	84,986	25,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	49.6	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	3.6	-7.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 179,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	28.6	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	83.8	5.9
– Net Position:	179,212	-201,897	22,685
– Gross Longs:	202,797	104,910	44,388
– Gross Shorts:	23,585	306,807	21,703
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.4	20.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -24,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	74.5	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	39.4	18.8
– Net Position:	-24,314	25,264	-950
– Gross Longs:	5,567	53,620	12,562
– Gross Shorts:	29,881	28,356	13,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	40.7	74.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.4	-28.9	32.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	83.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	53.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-67,205	75,322	-8,117
– Gross Longs:	16,046	208,156	22,693
– Gross Shorts:	83,251	132,834	30,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	45.5	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.1	-30.5	7.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	66.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	40.2	11.8
– Net Position:	-49,943	48,803	1,140
– Gross Longs:	26,602	123,079	22,967
– Gross Shorts:	76,545	74,276	21,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	59.0	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-13.2	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	73.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	39.3	6.3
– Net Position:	-21,523	21,302	221
– Gross Longs:	12,170	46,070	4,201
– Gross Shorts:	33,693	24,768	3,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	58.1	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-23.1	21.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,347 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	30.2	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	77.8	2.8
– Net Position:	59,512	-61,470	1,958
– Gross Longs:	83,287	39,019	5,554
– Gross Shorts:	23,775	100,489	3,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	42.6	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-2.6	8.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,887 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	32.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	88.5	1.1
– Net Position:	68,338	-70,574	2,236
– Gross Longs:	81,037	39,953	3,636
– Gross Shorts:	12,699	110,527	1,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.4	-22.0	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	5.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.5	1.7	3.7
– Net Position:	-1,231	915	316
– Gross Longs:	22,355	1,360	1,307
– Gross Shorts:	23,586	445	991
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	86.3	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-67.0	66.4	24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 May

Speculator Extremes: JPY, BRL, Wheat & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 29th.