COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 12

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by gains in 5-Year Bond & 2-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (57,986 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (55,058 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (21,171 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (15,722 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (9,751 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-85,699 contracts), the Fed Funds (-83,387 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-33,030 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3,293 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Weekly Price Changes led by US Treasury Bonds

The weekly price performance for the major U.S. bond markets showed slight increases across the board for the most part. The long U.S. Treasury bonds led the last 5 days price changes with a gain of 0.75% followed by the 10-Year Notes which rose by 0.57%. The 5-Year Bond was up by 0.40% while the 2-Year Bond was slightly higher by just 0.22%. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was up by 0.14% while the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate and the Fed Funds were virtually unchanged as well.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (22.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (62.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (80.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (92.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (65.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (61.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (41.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (45.7 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (33 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-62 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-62.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-43.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-8.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (33.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (26.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (14.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (20.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -317,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -83,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -233,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	71.0	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	57.3	2.3
– Net Position:	-317,054	319,912	-2,858
– Gross Longs:	244,310	1,659,279	51,339
– Gross Shorts:	561,364	1,339,367	54,197
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.4	65.2	-10.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -368,146 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -85,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -282,447 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	56.7	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	53.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-368,146	358,345	9,801
– Gross Longs:	1,768,279	7,024,134	66,827
– Gross Shorts:	2,136,425	6,665,789	57,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.3	58.1	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-12.7	-14.5

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -12,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	66.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-12,930	8,580	4,350
– Gross Longs:	229,471	969,517	4,631
– Gross Shorts:	242,401	960,937	281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	16.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	33.7	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-33.3	1.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,324,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 55,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,379,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	79.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.5	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,324,539	1,202,916	121,623
– Gross Longs:	512,267	3,582,207	258,933
– Gross Shorts:	1,836,806	2,379,291	137,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	86.6	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	8.4	-7.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,508,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 57,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,566,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	82.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	51.4	3.7
– Net Position:	-2,508,383	2,310,706	197,677
– Gross Longs:	539,075	6,090,238	471,602
– Gross Shorts:	3,047,458	3,779,532	273,925
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.7	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-1.6	4.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -945,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-945,516	826,011	119,505
– Gross Longs:	523,308	4,158,543	453,913
– Gross Shorts:	1,468,824	3,332,532	334,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.9	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	13.0	4.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -339,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -360,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	77.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	61.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-339,150	385,087	-45,937
– Gross Longs:	308,607	1,919,822	234,113
– Gross Shorts:	647,757	1,534,735	280,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	77.3	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-22.7	13.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	75.6	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	79.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-51,043	-62,680	113,723
– Gross Longs:	144,976	1,367,940	239,442
– Gross Shorts:	196,019	1,430,620	125,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.6	20.8	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-27.2	34.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -242,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,030 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	81.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	70.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-242,162	230,415	11,747
– Gross Longs:	129,418	1,647,663	188,953
– Gross Shorts:	371,580	1,417,248	177,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	30.4	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	-2.7	27.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bet Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were mixed this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while five markets had lower speculator contracts and one market had no change.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (35,321 contracts) with Corn (27,964 contracts), Soybean Meal (10,184 contracts), Cotton (3,334 contracts) and Coffee (2,458 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-15,862 contracts), Wheat (-4,572 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,218 contracts), Sugar (-1,781 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,720 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Live Cattle (0 contracts) showed not change on the week which is extremely rare and could likely be revised going forward.

Coffee leads price changes followed by Cocoa

Price changes for the soft commodities markets over the last five days saw just about all of them higher on the week. Coffee led with a huge weekly gain of 14.49%, followed by Cocoa which rose by over 11%. Soybean Meal was up by almost 6% on the week, Live Cattle rose by over 4%, followed by Soybean Oil which was up by 3%, and Lean Hogs which rose by over 2%.

Cotton and Corn also were higher by just over a percent, while Soybeans increased by 1%. Wheat prices were unchanged for the week, while Sugar was the only market that saw a decline with a -0.45% reduction.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (70 percent), Soybeans (56 percent) and Coffee (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (15 percent), Cotton (16 percent) and the Wheat (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (21.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (1.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.4 percent)
Coffee (53.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.3 percent)
Soybeans (55.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (69.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (78.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.8 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (79.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (83.1 percent)
Cotton (16.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.4 percent)
Cocoa (22.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.0 percent)
Wheat (19.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.5 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Corn (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-16 percent), Soybean Oil (-5 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.0 percent)
Sugar (-2.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-0.4 percent)
Coffee (-0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.7 percent)
Soybeans (-4.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.8 percent)
Live Cattle (4.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-15.7 percent)
Cotton (-3.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.2 percent)
Wheat (-25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-15.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -105,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -133,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	45.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	37.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-105,210	123,955	-18,745
– Gross Longs:	334,720	714,119	141,542
– Gross Shorts:	439,930	590,164	160,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	76.0	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.3	6.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -70,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	53.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	45.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-70,293	72,429	-2,136
– Gross Longs:	193,091	482,317	69,614
– Gross Shorts:	263,384	409,888	71,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.0	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-0.5	16.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	40.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	60.4	3.9
– Net Position:	28,660	-30,356	1,696
– Gross Longs:	48,952	61,658	7,632
– Gross Shorts:	20,292	92,014	5,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	48.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	-0.4	12.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 35,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	53.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.3	7.3
– Net Position:	19,746	-4,205	-15,541
– Gross Longs:	155,697	481,033	49,550
– Gross Shorts:	135,951	485,238	65,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	42.9	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.9	0.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	43.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	53.6	4.4
– Net Position:	50,207	-59,523	9,316
– Gross Longs:	141,004	268,812	36,141
– Gross Shorts:	90,797	328,335	26,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	31.3	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	4.7	-1.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -48,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	50.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	45.2	5.2
– Net Position:	-48,128	31,206	16,922
– Gross Longs:	115,221	326,017	50,621
– Gross Shorts:	163,349	294,811	33,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	87.3	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-12.0	-35.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	28.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	50.6	13.0
– Net Position:	106,141	-84,582	-21,559
– Gross Longs:	186,130	110,318	28,487
– Gross Shorts:	79,989	194,900	50,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	19.3	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.9	2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 69,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	28.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	47.6	7.4
– Net Position:	69,709	-64,123	-5,586
– Gross Longs:	148,031	93,494	18,865
– Gross Shorts:	78,322	157,617	24,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	20.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	6.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,334 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	46.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	32.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-35,105	35,326	-221
– Gross Longs:	67,937	113,021	11,819
– Gross Shorts:	103,042	77,695	12,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	84.9	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.0	1.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,720 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	40.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	58.5	7.7
– Net Position:	12,029	-16,261	4,232
– Gross Longs:	26,611	37,589	11,283
– Gross Shorts:	14,582	53,850	7,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	77.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	0.3	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	39.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	20.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-93,618	92,339	1,279
– Gross Longs:	129,713	195,592	36,833
– Gross Shorts:	223,331	103,253	35,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	81.8	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	20.8	51.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

17 Aug

Speculators push Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (14,984 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (783 contracts), Bitcoin (759 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (146 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,657 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,772 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,345 contracts), the British Pound (-5,790 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,816 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-666 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

Leading the speculator changes this week for the major currency markets was the Brazilian Real, which saw a gain of almost 15,000 speculator contracts on the week. This was the second straight week of gains for the Brazilian Real and the third time out of the last four weeks that speculator bets have increased. Overall, the Real position is at +39,582 contracts, which is the best mark over the last five weeks. The Real has been at least +20,000 or above speculator contracts for the last 24 weeks in a row.

The Brazilian Real exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar rose for a second straight week this week and continues to be in an uptrend after falling to a record low to end December. Overall, for the year of 2025, the Brazilian Real is up by over 12% while since the December bottoming, the Brazilian Real is up by over 16.65%.

Next up, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a small edge higher in their weekly speculator bets. The U.S. Dollar Index speculator positions rose by 783 contracts this week following two weeks of decreases. At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index standing is at -6,247 contracts, and overall the USD positioning has now been in a negative or bearish level for nine consecutive weeks with a speculator strength score of just 1.8% (out of a 0 to 100 range), illustrating the current weakness of the U.S. Dollar.

In the exchange rate markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell for a second straight week and closed the week at 97.695 exchange rate. The dollar had rebounded all the way up to the 100 level a couple of weeks ago but found resistance and got pushed back down. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index is down by over 12%.

British Pound Sterling led weekly market prices

The major currency market prices did not see much movement this week with no currency rising or falling by over 1%. The leader in price gains was the British Pound Sterling which was higher by 0.78% on the week. The Euro came in next with a rise of 0.50%, followed by the Brazilian Real at 0.44%. Bitcoin was higher by 0.42%, the Japanese Yen was slightly higher by 0.35%, followed by the Swiss Franc at 0.20%.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar was slightly lower at -0.23%, followed by the US Dollar Index, which saw a dip by -0.33%. The Canadian Dollar was at -0.41%, the New Zealand Dollar at -0.43%, and the biggest loser in the week was the Mexican Peso at -0.77%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (77 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (71 percent), Mexican Peso (60 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (72.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (71.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (58.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.5 percent)
Bitcoin (37.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.9 percent)

Bitcoin, Peso & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.3 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-32.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.3 percent)
Bitcoin (21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	37.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-6,247	5,122	1,125
– Gross Longs:	12,729	11,370	4,202
– Gross Shorts:	18,976	6,248	3,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	96.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.0	26.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 115,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	55.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	75.8	5.4
– Net Position:	115,431	-167,063	51,632
– Gross Longs:	246,299	458,037	96,093
– Gross Shorts:	130,868	625,100	44,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	24.3	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.2	-3.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	50.5	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.2	34.1	12.4
– Net Position:	-39,093	35,517	3,576
– Gross Longs:	73,736	109,217	30,321
– Gross Shorts:	112,829	73,700	26,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.6	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.5	32.9	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	41.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	63.0	10.1
– Net Position:	74,234	-73,895	-339
– Gross Longs:	164,693	147,170	35,172
– Gross Shorts:	90,459	221,065	35,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	32.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-53.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	75.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	22.7
– Net Position:	-28,043	33,224	-5,181
– Gross Longs:	6,091	60,689	13,086
– Gross Shorts:	34,134	27,465	18,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	53.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	18.7	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	73.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	31.3	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,077	93,571	-3,494
– Gross Longs:	20,898	162,833	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	110,975	69,262	26,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	52.8	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.0	-17.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -87,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	66.8	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	17.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-87,905	84,233	3,672
– Gross Longs:	25,631	114,396	24,097
– Gross Shorts:	113,536	30,163	20,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	80.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	45.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-4,687	5,799	-1,112
– Gross Longs:	11,160	27,937	3,806
– Gross Shorts:	15,847	22,138	4,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	40.7	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	13.0	-34.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	37.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	72.8	1.6
– Net Position:	61,239	-64,848	3,609
– Gross Longs:	106,539	67,876	6,499
– Gross Shorts:	45,300	132,724	2,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.9	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.6	-9.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	34.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	76.4	0.8
– Net Position:	39,582	-43,069	3,487
– Gross Longs:	59,388	35,788	4,287
– Gross Shorts:	19,806	78,857	800
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	22.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.1	14.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	4.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-742	118	624
– Gross Longs:	23,438	1,371	1,624
– Gross Shorts:	24,180	1,253	1,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	59.2	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-26.4	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 22 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,312 net contracts this week with a gain of 8,476 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 7,794 net contracts this week with a weekly increase by 1,940 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -209,132 net contracts this week with a rise of 19,235 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 73,927 net contracts this week with a small boost by 789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with a dip of -234 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,566,369 net contracts this week with a drop by -29,492 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -51 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 116,742 net contracts this week with a reduction by -25,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -6,247 net contracts this week with a gain of 783 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -68,512 net contracts this week with a boost by 8,460 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,379,597 net contracts this week with a drop by -54,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

17 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (7,525 contracts) with Platinum (1,126 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-7,565 contracts), Silver (-6,390 contracts), Palladium (-1,161 contracts) and with Steel (-626 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Weekly Metals Performance

The metals markets on the week were mostly lower as 4 out of the 6 markets saw declining prices. Platinum led the week with a 0.58% increase, while Copper rose by 0.54%. Palladium was lower by -0.5%, Silver was down by -1.09% and Gold was down by -1.80%. Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -3.33% decrease.

In the longer term, over the last 90 days, all these markets are higher, with Copper seeing just a 4.65% rise and is the smallest gainer over 90 days. Palladium, Silver, and Steel are all up by over 20% in the last 90 days, while Gold is up by 12.32%. Platinum is the biggest mover over the last 90 days with a gain of 42.67%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (78 percent) and Silver (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.2 percent)
Silver (71.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (59.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.5 percent)
Platinum (58.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.4 percent)
Palladium (78.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.9 percent)
Steel (59.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.0 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.0 percent)
Silver (-23.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.4 percent)
Copper (-5.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.1 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.3 percent)
Steel (-8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 229,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 237,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.6	14.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	73.2	4.5
– Net Position:	229,485	-263,065	33,580
– Gross Longs:	288,115	63,427	53,656
– Gross Shorts:	58,630	326,492	20,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	27.6	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.7	-1.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	26.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	68.9	6.7
– Net Position:	44,268	-66,421	22,153
– Gross Longs:	66,252	41,331	32,647
– Gross Shorts:	21,984	107,752	10,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	21.5	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	19.9	4.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	33.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	52.6	4.7
– Net Position:	28,211	-38,033	9,822
– Gross Longs:	58,802	63,855	19,016
– Gross Shorts:	30,591	101,888	9,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	37.7	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	-0.6	37.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	19.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	47.2	5.4
– Net Position:	17,788	-23,015	5,227
– Gross Longs:	47,458	15,571	9,606
– Gross Shorts:	29,670	38,586	4,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	41.3	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-3.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,335 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	34.1	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	26.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-3,496	1,558	1,938
– Gross Longs:	8,005	6,891	3,049
– Gross Shorts:	11,501	5,333	1,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	9.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-10.2	14.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	77.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	-718	501	217
– Gross Longs:	4,023	17,306	444
– Gross Shorts:	4,741	16,805	227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	40.3	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.9	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

17 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (158,614 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (49,646 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19,235 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (17,611 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-54,074 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-29,492 contracts), the Fed Funds (-6,397 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-3,468 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-699 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bond market prices this week

The major US bond market prices this week were pretty subdued, with the 3-month secured overnight financing rate (3-M SOFR) leading the way for the last 5 days with a 0.64% increase.

The 2-year bond (0.06%) and the 5-year bond (0.03%) were virtually unchanged, while the fed funds (-0.02%) and the 10-year note (-0.16%) were also virtually unchanged to the downside. The 1-month secured overnight financing rate was lower by 0.5%, while the longer treasury bonds were down by 1%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (93 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (62 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent), the Fed Funds (11 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (12.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (11.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (62.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (45.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (26 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-32.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-30.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (29.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (20.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (6.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -233,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -227,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	69.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	59.2	1.9
– Net Position:	-233,667	225,702	7,965
– Gross Longs:	260,775	1,535,528	50,810
– Gross Shorts:	494,442	1,309,826	42,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	83.1	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.9	44.8	-4.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -282,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 158,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -441,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	54.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-282,447	261,921	20,526
– Gross Longs:	1,818,394	6,932,254	71,213
– Gross Shorts:	2,100,841	6,670,333	50,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	53.1	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-20.1	-6.8

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	67.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	65.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-28,652	26,840	1,812
– Gross Longs:	187,765	910,687	4,165
– Gross Shorts:	216,417	883,847	2,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	38.1	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-25.2	-6.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,379,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -54,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,325,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	80.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	52.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,379,597	1,253,871	125,726
– Gross Longs:	519,409	3,638,973	262,521
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,006	2,385,102	136,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	92.2	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	10.0	-1.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,566,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -29,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,536,877 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	51.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,566,369	2,352,918	213,451
– Gross Longs:	492,867	6,055,630	468,638
– Gross Shorts:	3,059,236	3,702,712	255,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	4.6	1.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -942,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -959,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	76.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	61.9	6.0
– Net Position:	-942,223	793,295	148,928
– Gross Longs:	544,434	4,100,111	470,827
– Gross Shorts:	1,486,657	3,306,816	321,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	72.3	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	13.8	20.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -360,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -359,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-360,321	402,305	-41,984
– Gross Longs:	292,485	1,908,261	239,327
– Gross Shorts:	652,806	1,505,956	281,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	81.9	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-10.5	4.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -60,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 49,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	76.7	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	79.6	7.1
– Net Position:	-60,794	-51,181	111,975
– Gross Longs:	148,973	1,372,602	239,356
– Gross Shorts:	209,767	1,423,783	127,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	24.1	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-14.4	5.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -209,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	81.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.6	8.6
– Net Position:	-209,132	198,287	10,845
– Gross Longs:	138,939	1,643,416	185,310
– Gross Shorts:	348,071	1,445,129	174,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	18.1	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-11.9	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

17 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,585 contracts) with Soybean Meal (23,298 contracts), Sugar (8,460 contracts), Cocoa (3,706 contracts) and Lean Hogs (789 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,206 contracts), Wheat (-10,481 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,877 contracts), Coffee (-3,056 contracts), Cotton (-2,961 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-234 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Changes:

Leading the prices this week for the soft commodity markets was Coffee, which jumped by over 10%. Coffee has now been up by 16% in the last 30 days, but over the last 90 days it is down by almost 1%.

Soybeans came in second this week with a gain of over 5%, followed by Soybean Meal, which rose by over 2.5% on the week. Cocoa was next with a gain of almost 2%, followed by Cotton with a 1.3% rise, and then Sugar, which rose by just about 1.2% on the week. Corn (0.29%) and Soybean Oil (0.14%) edged up a minuscule amount on the week.

Live cattle (-0.22%), Lean Hogs (-0.97%), and Wheat were all down on the week, with Wheat seeing the biggest downfall at -1.86%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (78 percent) and Coffee (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (11 percent), Cotton (14 percent) and the Corn (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (2.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (51.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.2 percent)
Soybeans (46.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.0 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (83.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.5 percent)
Cotton (14.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.2 percent)
Cocoa (24.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.2 percent)
Wheat (23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (32.0 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (11 percent) and Soybean Oil (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-16 percent), Soybeans (-15 percent) and Cotton (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.1 percent)
Sugar (-0.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (-2.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-1.8 percent)
Soybeans (-14.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (6.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.5 percent)
Cotton (-6.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (-15.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -133,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	44.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	34.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-133,174	155,179	-22,005
– Gross Longs:	313,217	690,502	144,348
– Gross Shorts:	446,391	535,323	166,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	80.7	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.9	-3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	52.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	45.2	7.5
– Net Position:	-68,512	64,008	4,504
– Gross Longs:	198,447	470,364	72,133
– Gross Shorts:	266,959	406,356	67,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	94.0	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.9	18.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	39.1	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	57.6	4.6
– Net Position:	26,202	-27,078	876
– Gross Longs:	46,593	57,194	7,616
– Gross Shorts:	20,391	84,272	6,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.1	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.7	-19.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	52.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	48.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-15,575	30,518	-14,943
– Gross Longs:	153,439	460,202	49,113
– Gross Shorts:	169,014	429,684	64,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.3	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.1	2.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 66,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	44.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.5	4.6
– Net Position:	66,069	-77,075	11,006
– Gross Longs:	139,219	276,377	39,003
– Gross Shorts:	73,150	353,452	27,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.3	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-4.0	-2.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	51.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	45.4	5.1
– Net Position:	-58,312	40,390	17,922
– Gross Longs:	111,199	342,675	51,943
– Gross Shorts:	169,511	302,285	34,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	90.8	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.8	-45.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	29.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	51.0	13.5
– Net Position:	106,141	-83,367	-22,774
– Gross Longs:	183,808	111,511	28,951
– Gross Shorts:	77,667	194,878	51,725
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	20.7	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	1.2	-10.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	49.0	7.4
– Net Position:	73,927	-69,042	-4,885
– Gross Longs:	153,610	98,076	20,430
– Gross Shorts:	79,683	167,118	25,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.0	13.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	46.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	30.5	5.1
– Net Position:	-38,439	39,218	-779
– Gross Longs:	68,099	113,063	11,588
– Gross Shorts:	106,538	73,845	12,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	87.2	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.7	-7.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.9	7.1
– Net Position:	13,749	-18,785	5,036
– Gross Longs:	27,469	39,736	11,968
– Gross Shorts:	13,720	58,521	6,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.0	74.8	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.3	11.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -89,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,565 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	37.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	19.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-89,046	88,024	1,022
– Gross Longs:	133,455	180,598	38,421
– Gross Shorts:	222,501	92,574	37,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	77.9	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	11.8	37.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

09 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.

Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.

Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.

The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.

Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	39.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	21.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-7,030	5,365	1,665
– Gross Longs:	11,399	11,847	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	18,429	6,482	2,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-2.9	32.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.4	5.5
– Net Position:	115,959	-163,545	47,586
– Gross Longs:	247,357	453,569	92,215
– Gross Shorts:	131,398	617,114	44,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.3	-11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	52.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	37.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-33,303	32,643	660
– Gross Longs:	65,635	108,854	29,306
– Gross Shorts:	98,938	76,211	28,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	77.4	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	31.7	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	40.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.4	9.5
– Net Position:	82,006	-87,341	5,335
– Gross Longs:	160,258	136,734	37,362
– Gross Shorts:	78,252	224,075	32,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.2	-22.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	34.3	22.3
– Net Position:	-27,377	33,113	-5,736
– Gross Longs:	6,806	60,532	12,062
– Gross Shorts:	34,183	27,419	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.5	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	20.1	-25.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	72.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	33.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-79,420	84,877	-5,457
– Gross Longs:	23,589	156,289	22,218
– Gross Shorts:	103,009	71,412	27,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	49.6	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	14.6	-23.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	67.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	17.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-83,560	82,545	1,015
– Gross Longs:	23,988	110,361	21,761
– Gross Shorts:	107,548	27,816	20,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	79.1	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.2	-2.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	44.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-4,833	6,159	-1,326
– Gross Longs:	11,085	27,755	3,780
– Gross Shorts:	15,918	21,596	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	41.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	11.3	-30.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	36.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.7	1.7
– Net Position:	68,055	-71,691	3,636
– Gross Longs:	105,231	63,351	6,628
– Gross Shorts:	37,176	135,042	2,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	37.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.2	-4.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	36.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.8	1.1
– Net Position:	24,598	-27,830	3,232
– Gross Longs:	51,209	32,730	4,179
– Gross Shorts:	26,611	60,560	947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	34.3	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	16.3	-1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	6.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	89.0	1.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,501	1,195	306
– Gross Longs:	23,039	1,660	1,460
– Gross Shorts:	24,540	465	1,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-11.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

09 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq & Palladium lead Top Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 5th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in at the top of the most extreme standings this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 5,854 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,860 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in next this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 27 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 33,836 net contracts this week with a small decrease of -1,118 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position takes the next position in the extreme standings this week with the Palladium speculator level sitting at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 16 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,335 net contracts this week with a drop of -482 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position slides in next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 86 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -228,367 net contracts this week with a reduction of -11,554 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -76,972 net contracts this week with a reduction by -14,824 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,536,877 net contracts this week with a decline of -24,994 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -7,030 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,874 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Next, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is currently at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -43 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 141,829 net contracts this week with a reduction of -14,194 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fifth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge lower by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -81,610 net contracts this week with a small increase of 1,061 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

09 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets up higher for 5th time in 6 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold with a rise of 13,454 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-16,661 contracts), Silver (-8,749 contracts), Platinum (-3,906 contracts), Steel (-1,265 contracts) and with Palladium (-482 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Gold Speculator Bets rose for 5th time in 6 weeks

Gold speculator bets rose this week for the fifth time out of the last six weeks, and for the ninth time out of the last 12 weeks. The gold speculator bets have now been over +200,000 contracts in these last six weeks after a cool off in bets from April to June that saw just one week over +200,000 speculator positions.

The gold price was up 1.25% this week, while being up only two percent over the last 30 days and higher by just under nine percent over the last 90 days.

Elsewhere, silver was the highest mover on the week with a gain of almost 4%. Platinum followed with a gain over 2%. Platinum has been up by over 40% in the last 90 days. Copper came in at just below 1% for gains this week, while Steel fell 0.70% and Palladium took a big hit by almost 7% on the week, even though Palladium is up 20% in the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (87 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (65.1 percent)
Silver (79.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.3 percent)
Copper (52.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (68.0 percent)
Platinum (55.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.6 percent)
Palladium (86.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.6 percent)
Steel (64.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.8 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (16 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-20 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (16.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-15.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (-8.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.6 percent)
Platinum (-20.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-6.3 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (6.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 237,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 223,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	16.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.6	4.3
– Net Position:	237,050	-270,146	33,096
– Gross Longs:	292,194	74,075	52,597
– Gross Shorts:	55,144	344,221	19,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.2	25.1	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-14.3	-8.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.2	23.2	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	67.9	5.9
– Net Position:	50,658	-72,228	21,570
– Gross Longs:	71,234	37,347	31,007
– Gross Shorts:	20,576	109,575	9,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	15.1	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	11.3	9.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 20,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,347 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	33.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	49.8	4.1
– Net Position:	20,686	-32,762	12,076
– Gross Longs:	54,929	65,903	20,148
– Gross Shorts:	34,243	98,665	8,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	42.2	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	-0.9	59.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	19.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	47.7	4.9
– Net Position:	16,662	-22,999	6,337
– Gross Longs:	46,067	15,414	10,274
– Gross Shorts:	29,405	38,413	3,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	41.4	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	15.9	16.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,335 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	34.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	30.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-2,335	701	1,634
– Gross Longs:	8,048	6,502	2,850
– Gross Shorts:	10,383	5,801	1,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	2.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-20.3	21.8

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	73.8	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	74.3	0.9
– Net Position:	-92	-101	193
– Gross Longs:	4,039	15,607	387
– Gross Shorts:	4,131	15,708	194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	36.2	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.1	6.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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