COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 14

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (156,120 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (68,202 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,162 contracts), the Fed Funds (20,490 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-33,727 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,386 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (11,259 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-5,794 contracts), and the SOFR 1-Month (-1,100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 3-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) contracts were the leaders in the bond market for positive changes this week, gaining by over 150,000 positions. This market represents a short-term bond utilized by banks, broker-dealers and other entities and consistently has the highest open interest on a weekly basis.

On the other hand, the 2-year bond experienced the most significant decline this week, with a decrease of over -30,000 contracts.

Overall, most of the bond contract prices, ranging from the 2-year to the long treasury bonds, are trading within the same range that they have been for the past couple of years. While they are down from their 2020 levels, they continue to be in a holding pattern for the recent price history.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (1 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (60.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (39.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (31.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (32.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (27.0 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-32 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (55.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-31.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-48.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	61.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	64.5	2.2
– Net Position:	54,744	-60,193	5,449
– Gross Longs:	437,919	1,318,062	51,540
– Gross Shorts:	383,175	1,378,255	46,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	31.1	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.8	-35.2	-8.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -487,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 156,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -643,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	60.0	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	56.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-487,148	442,642	44,506
– Gross Longs:	1,394,554	6,835,065	90,452
– Gross Shorts:	1,881,702	6,392,423	45,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.9	-24.2	12.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -149,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -147,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	59.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-149,007	145,500	3,507
– Gross Longs:	151,257	991,715	5,958
– Gross Shorts:	300,264	846,215	2,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	67.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.6	29.7	15.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,299,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,266,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	77.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	50.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,299,860	1,174,486	125,374
– Gross Longs:	600,084	3,389,554	247,372
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,944	2,215,068	121,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	86.4	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	12.8	1.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,505,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,516,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	51.0	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,505,528	2,344,691	160,837
– Gross Longs:	487,008	5,932,240	430,351
– Gross Shorts:	2,992,536	3,587,549	269,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.3	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -772,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 68,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -840,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	77.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	63.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-772,377	686,019	86,358
– Gross Longs:	572,071	3,797,640	435,018
– Gross Shorts:	1,344,448	3,111,621	348,660
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	57.9	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.3	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -379,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -408,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	60.8	11.9
– Net Position:	-379,116	443,999	-64,883
– Gross Longs:	255,630	1,913,429	223,664
– Gross Shorts:	634,746	1,469,430	288,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	93.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-0.1	6.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -130,144 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	77.9	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	74.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-130,144	53,908	76,236
– Gross Longs:	145,115	1,405,838	226,498
– Gross Shorts:	275,259	1,351,930	150,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	54.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	11.4	-10.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -228,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -222,824 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	82.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	69.9	9.6
– Net Position:	-228,618	238,681	-10,063
– Gross Longs:	147,388	1,610,288	179,361
– Gross Shorts:	376,006	1,371,607	189,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	33.5	4.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.2	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

19 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (12,305 contracts) with Sugar (8,352 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,859 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,963 contracts), Cotton (4,662 contracts), Live Cattle (3,123 contracts) and Coffee (2,212 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-22,774 contracts), Lean Hogs (-8,097 contracts), Wheat (-3,681 contracts) and with Cocoa (-761 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The biggest positive mover this week was Corn, with a gain of over 12,000 contracts. Although Corn saw higher bets this week, overall the position has been in an extreme bearish level compared to the last three years. The corn price in the markets has been on the decline and has been touching the lowest levels in a year.

On the downside, Soybeans saw the biggest retreat this week, with a decrease of over 20,000 contracts. Soybean prices have also been lower over the last couple of years, and in fact, are almost 40% off the highs from 2022.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (3 percent), Sugar (4 percent) and Corn (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (16.9 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.9 percent)
Soybeans (54.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (77.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.5 percent)
Live Cattle (81.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (77.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (22.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.8 percent)
Wheat (42.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (45.5 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (26 percent) and Soybean Oil (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (12 percent) and Cotton (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-11 percent), Soybean Meal (-10 percent) and Cocoa (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.5 percent)
Sugar (-13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.1 percent)
Coffee (-3.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-11.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-13.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.3 percent)
Cotton (4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-7.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (25.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -129,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	33.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-129,457	157,267	-27,810
– Gross Longs:	293,548	649,577	141,147
– Gross Shorts:	423,005	492,310	168,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	81.0	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	8.0	-4.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	51.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	44.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-52,099	65,399	-13,300
– Gross Longs:	204,179	448,590	62,405
– Gross Shorts:	256,278	383,191	75,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.4	2.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	13.3	-8.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	41.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	62.7	4.0
– Net Position:	31,133	-31,971	838
– Gross Longs:	48,940	62,472	6,921
– Gross Shorts:	17,807	94,443	6,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	46.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	4.9	-20.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	51.7	7.1
– Net Position:	15,294	-82	-15,212
– Gross Longs:	186,780	455,507	47,563
– Gross Shorts:	171,486	455,589	62,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	44.0	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	12.0	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,963 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	57.7	4.4
– Net Position:	64,125	-76,481	12,356
– Gross Longs:	135,739	279,001	39,591
– Gross Shorts:	71,614	355,482	27,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.3	22.6	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-14.6	34.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.4	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	42.1	5.3
– Net Position:	-79,742	55,787	23,955
– Gross Longs:	128,060	340,589	59,734
– Gross Shorts:	207,802	284,802	35,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	97.5	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	9.8	-0.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 104,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	49.6	13.4
– Net Position:	104,445	-81,860	-22,585
– Gross Longs:	194,938	114,273	30,461
– Gross Shorts:	90,493	196,133	53,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	22.6	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.6	-8.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	28.1	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.0	7.6
– Net Position:	82,803	-77,017	-5,786
– Gross Longs:	157,623	98,669	21,044
– Gross Shorts:	74,820	175,686	26,830
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	9.9	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.8	-9.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	35.7	4.9
– Net Position:	-25,083	24,866	217
– Gross Longs:	63,934	100,515	10,668
– Gross Shorts:	89,017	75,649	10,451
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	78.9	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.9	10.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	41.2	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	57.9	7.1
– Net Position:	11,823	-16,021	4,198
– Gross Longs:	26,360	39,587	11,035
– Gross Shorts:	14,537	55,608	6,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	77.6	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	9.8	-21.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	37.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	20.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-65,521	71,099	-5,578
– Gross Longs:	117,724	154,773	30,534
– Gross Shorts:	183,245	83,674	36,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	62.6	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.3	-38.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

29 Jun

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,166 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,582 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (4,043 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,400 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,462 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,962 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,716 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,172 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,066 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-888 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-377 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

The U.S. dollar index speculator position dropped this week for a second consecutive week and is now at the lowest level in the past 225 weeks. This is the lowest standing dating back to March 9th of 2021 when the speculator positions were negative by over -8,000 contracts.

The U.S. dollar index speculator position has fallen by -7,436 contracts in the last two weeks and by over -22,000 contracts in the last 15 weeks, going from +16,835 contracts on March 11th to -6,034 contracts this week.

Despite geopolitical turmoil over the last few weeks, the dollar index has not experienced safe haven flows and is now trading under the 98.00 exchange rate. This is the lowest level since 2022 when the index was on the rise up and culminated later that year at a high of nearly 115.00 in September 2022. The dollar index is now down about 12% since the beginning of the year after starting the year near the 110.00 exchange rate.

Quick Roundup:

Other Currencies:
– Non-US dollar contracts are improving week to week and month to month.
– Negative contracts at this point are the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the US dollar index and Bitcoin.

Euro:
– Speculator positions have risen for five consecutive weeks and by over 36,000 contracts over that period.
– The Euro speculator position is now back over +100,000 contracts for the second consecutive week.
– The Euro positions are now at their highest level since January of 2024.

Japanese Yen:
– Speculator bets have cooled off somewhat after hitting record high in the last few months.
– The currency has been consolidating over the last two months, however it is up about 10% since beginning of the year.

Swiss Franc:
– Continues to have a negative large speculator position but has been steadily improving since the beginning of the year.
– It has halved its negative position to the current level of -20,000 contracts.
– Swiss franc has benefited from safe haven flows, rising approximately 15% against the U.S. dollar since January

Australian Dollar:
– The AUD exchange rate is up about 5% against the U.S. dollar in 2025.
– However, the speculator position is the most bearish out of all the major currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate in May meeting.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (87 percent) and the Brazilian Real (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), New Zealand Dollar (68 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and Bitcoin (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.6 percent)
EuroFX (71.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (67.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (87.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (86.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (58.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (60.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (64.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (63.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (80.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (86.5 percent)
Bitcoin (4.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (10 percent), the Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the British Pound (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent), the US Dollar Index (-12 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-11.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (10.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	40.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	18.8	11.4
– Net Position:	-6,034	6,748	-714
– Gross Longs:	13,283	12,617	2,840
– Gross Shorts:	19,317	5,869	3,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.3	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 111,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	54.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	76.3	5.5
– Net Position:	111,135	-164,301	53,166
– Gross Longs:	223,791	417,363	94,870
– Gross Shorts:	112,656	581,664	41,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	25.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.2	7.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	48.5	14.6
– Net Position:	34,395	-44,035	9,640
– Gross Longs:	99,848	43,166	35,906
– Gross Shorts:	65,453	87,201	26,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	45.6	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.0	10.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 132,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.7	29.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	76.2	8.0
– Net Position:	132,277	-147,710	15,433
– Gross Longs:	178,403	92,034	40,462
– Gross Shorts:	46,126	239,744	25,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	13.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	9.4	6.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	65.8	22.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	35.9	22.0
– Net Position:	-20,944	20,768	176
– Gross Longs:	8,184	45,702	15,449
– Gross Shorts:	29,128	24,934	15,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	33.4	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.6	0.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	67.5	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	42.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-53,167	50,430	2,737
– Gross Longs:	25,267	135,776	27,452
– Gross Shorts:	78,434	85,346	24,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	35.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-17.6	35.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -72,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	64.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	18.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-72,562	70,475	2,087
– Gross Longs:	23,249	97,992	22,820
– Gross Shorts:	95,811	27,517	20,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	72.0	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	11.7	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	38.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	47.2	7.3
– Net Position:	2,770	-3,877	1,107
– Gross Longs:	18,619	17,004	4,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,849	20,881	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	29.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-29.2	7.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	37.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	75.5	1.8
– Net Position:	51,311	-55,780	4,469
– Gross Longs:	83,729	55,155	7,127
– Gross Shorts:	32,418	110,935	2,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.5	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	7.1	3.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	33.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.2	1.0
– Net Position:	44,730	-48,182	3,452
– Gross Longs:	66,374	44,952	4,804
– Gross Shorts:	21,644	93,134	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	17.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.3	6.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,161	1,692	469
– Gross Longs:	24,232	2,152	1,497
– Gross Shorts:	26,393	460	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.1	3.2	61.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets mixed, led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,633 contracts) with Platinum (1,985 contracts) and Palladium (740 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,644 contracts), Silver (-4,227 contracts) and with Steel (-378 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (95 percent) and Platinum (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (54.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (56.4 percent)
Silver (94.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (60.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.4 percent)
Platinum (75.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (70.9 percent)
Palladium (70.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (65.1 percent)
Steel (64.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (66.9 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (45 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (19 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (19.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (22.4 percent)
Copper (7.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (37.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.4 percent)
Palladium (44.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (35.6 percent)
Steel (-7.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 195,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.9	16.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.9	4.5
– Net Position:	195,004	-230,560	35,556
– Gross Longs:	256,077	73,323	55,009
– Gross Shorts:	61,073	303,883	19,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	39.3	94.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-14.2	19.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.4	23.1	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.4	7.6
– Net Position:	62,947	-82,477	19,530
– Gross Longs:	84,491	40,422	32,867
– Gross Shorts:	21,544	122,899	13,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.7	3.8	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-17.9	5.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	30.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	46.3	6.3
– Net Position:	29,433	-31,719	2,286
– Gross Longs:	70,781	62,511	15,032
– Gross Shorts:	41,348	94,230	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	43.1	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-6.4	-3.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	18.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	48.4	5.6
– Net Position:	25,212	-30,113	4,901
– Gross Longs:	60,143	18,640	10,538
– Gross Shorts:	34,931	48,753	5,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	25.4	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.6	-37.3	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	39.0	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.7	21.9	8.0
– Net Position:	-4,508	3,359	1,149
– Gross Longs:	8,186	7,661	2,714
– Gross Shorts:	12,694	4,302	1,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.6	22.9	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.7	-48.1	15.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	68.8	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	65.9	0.5
– Net Position:	-1,074	932	142
– Gross Longs:	8,143	22,470	294
– Gross Shorts:	9,217	21,538	152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	36.0	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	6.3	19.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

28 Jun

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Lean Hogs & Silver lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 99.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 points this week. The speculator position registered 7,260 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,223 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99 percent score or just below its maximum of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 36 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 94,956 net contracts this week although saw a dip by -1,312 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19 points this week. The overall speculator position was 62,947 net contracts this week with a reduction by -4,227 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position registers number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19 points this week.

The speculator position was -209,526 net contracts this week with a drop by -19,812 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -11 points this week. The overall speculator position was 132,277 net contracts this week with an increase by 1,400 contracts in the speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position also comes in tied at the top of the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -23 points this week. The overall speculator position was -47,220 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -79 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -76,064 net contracts this week with a decrease by -16,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum level score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,463,629 net contracts this week with a decline of -20,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in also tied atop as the most bearish extreme standings. The USD Index speculator level is rounded to a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -12 points this week. The speculator position was -6,034 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -13 points this week. The speculator position was -367,108 net contracts this week with a dip by -19,423 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

28 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (98,926 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (72,768 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-63,807 contracts), the Fed Funds (-42,736 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,610 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-20,348 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-19,812 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,423 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (93 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (48 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (45 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (31 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (22.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (44.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (48.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (33.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (33.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (31.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (26.0 percent)

10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-0.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-12.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-13.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-8.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (28.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-34.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-33.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (9.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (3.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -52,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -42,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	63.5	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	61.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-52,710	36,521	16,189
– Gross Longs:	333,368	1,371,362	47,669
– Gross Shorts:	386,078	1,334,841	31,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	48.7	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-7.0	15.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -563,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 98,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -662,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	61.1	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.9	0.6
– Net Position:	-563,811	578,846	-15,035
– Gross Longs:	1,274,796	6,730,015	55,134
– Gross Shorts:	1,838,607	6,151,169	70,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	69.5	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.8	-5.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -144,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	64.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	54.3	0.1
– Net Position:	-144,015	139,503	4,512
– Gross Longs:	206,962	908,630	5,408
– Gross Shorts:	350,977	769,127	896
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	65.8	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	37.0	-23.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,230,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -63,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,166,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	77.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	50.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,230,204	1,105,559	124,645
– Gross Longs:	621,378	3,219,037	248,595
– Gross Shorts:	1,851,582	2,113,478	123,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	80.8	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-0.7	4.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,463,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,443,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.8	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,463,629	2,232,475	231,154
– Gross Longs:	535,479	5,899,749	472,709
– Gross Shorts:	2,999,108	3,667,274	241,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	96.3	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	10.0	22.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -680,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 72,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -752,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	76.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-680,131	583,284	96,847
– Gross Longs:	640,524	3,736,423	444,200
– Gross Shorts:	1,320,655	3,153,139	347,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	50.2	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-27.1	3.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -367,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	79.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	61.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-367,108	417,015	-49,907
– Gross Longs:	255,143	1,881,625	216,455
– Gross Shorts:	622,251	1,464,610	266,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	92.2	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	22.8	-26.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -101,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,175 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	76.6	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	75.9	8.4
– Net Position:	-101,785	13,618	88,167
– Gross Longs:	155,361	1,358,300	236,647
– Gross Shorts:	257,146	1,344,682	148,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	42.9	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	9.9	-8.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -209,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	81.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	71.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-209,526	192,463	17,063
– Gross Longs:	138,996	1,544,513	178,019
– Gross Shorts:	348,522	1,352,050	160,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.6	15.9	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

28 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (13,390 contracts) with Cotton (5,439 contracts) and Soybean Oil (157 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-29,353 contracts), Corn (-23,326 contracts), Soybean Meal (-16,876 contracts), Coffee (-4,750 contracts), Cocoa (-4,110 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,477 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,312 contracts) and with Sugar (-79 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Sugar (0 percent), Corn (18 percent) and the Cotton (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (56.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (72.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (76.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (18.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.6 percent)
Cocoa (23.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.3 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.5 percent)

Wheat & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (37 percent) and Lean Hogs (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-20 percent), Coffee (-14 percent) and Soybean Meal (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-30.4 percent)
Sugar (-23.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.3 percent)
Coffee (-14.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-2.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-5.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (44.4 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.1 percent)
Cocoa (-8.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.1 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -130,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	46.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	36.9	11.2
– Net Position:	-130,570	143,528	-12,958
– Gross Longs:	289,305	710,288	158,516
– Gross Shorts:	419,875	566,760	171,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.9	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	19.8	21.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -47,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -79 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	53.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.3	9.0
– Net Position:	-47,220	51,407	-4,187
– Gross Longs:	201,571	458,220	72,992
– Gross Shorts:	248,791	406,813	77,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.3	21.4	-9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	42.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	64.7	4.3
– Net Position:	31,154	-32,779	1,625
– Gross Longs:	45,467	62,584	7,984
– Gross Shorts:	14,313	95,363	6,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	45.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	14.9	-11.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -29,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	49.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	54.9	7.4
– Net Position:	55,870	-42,557	-13,313
– Gross Longs:	190,265	417,621	48,705
– Gross Shorts:	134,395	460,178	62,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	32.6	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.5	-0.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	47.3	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	59.7	4.7
– Net Position:	63,489	-73,522	10,033
– Gross Longs:	134,185	281,052	37,716
– Gross Shorts:	70,696	354,574	27,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.9	24.1	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	5.3	2.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	51.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	43.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-76,064	51,927	24,137
– Gross Longs:	109,147	324,325	60,487
– Gross Shorts:	185,211	272,398	36,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.3	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	7.6	32.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 106,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	50.9	13.2
– Net Position:	106,183	-86,980	-19,203
– Gross Longs:	190,895	110,015	31,781
– Gross Shorts:	84,712	196,995	50,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	1.0	12.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 94,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	26.0	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	49.3	8.4
– Net Position:	94,956	-87,562	-7,394
– Gross Longs:	170,370	97,654	24,195
– Gross Shorts:	75,414	185,216	31,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.0	1.4	33.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.4	-35.1	-28.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	30.8	6.1
– Net Position:	-31,047	32,063	-1,016
– Gross Longs:	67,277	95,211	11,433
– Gross Shorts:	98,324	63,148	12,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	83.1	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	7.1	8.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	38.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	58.0	7.0
– Net Position:	12,905	-17,330	4,425
– Gross Longs:	27,510	33,815	10,574
– Gross Shorts:	14,605	51,145	6,149
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	76.2	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	9.9	-19.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	40.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	20.2	9.4
– Net Position:	-71,192	75,830	-4,638
– Gross Longs:	96,882	151,403	30,543
– Gross Shorts:	168,074	75,573	35,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	67.2	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-32.8	-57.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Jun

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Levels show where open contracts are in the markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (16,419 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (15,303 contracts), the EuroFX (10,261 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,508 contracts), the Swiss Franc (4,798 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,439 contracts), the US Dollar Index (785 contracts) and also Bitcoin (303 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,789 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-6,554 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,723 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

Currency Data Highlights this week include the Euro and the British pound sterling seeing stronger speculator positioning that has pushed the overall net positions to multi-month highs.

Euro FX Positions rise to 40-week high
– Euro positions rose by over 10,000 contracts this week, marking the fourth increase in the last six weeks.
– Speculators’ Euro positions have risen for 13 out of the last 17 weeks, totaling a change of +157,450 contracts over that time-frame.
– The Euro positions have increased from negative contracts in mid-February to over 93,000 contracts this week, the highest level for Euro speculators since September 3, 2024, when the net position was over 100,000 contracts.

British Pound Sterling
– British Pound Sterling contracts jumped by over 16,000 positions this week.
– Speculator bets on the Pound Sterling have risen in 5 out of the last 8 weeks, totaling over +45,000 contracts in that period.
– The Pound Sterling speculator position is currently at its highest level since November with the current standing above the 50,000 contract level.

Canadian Dollar
– Canadian Dollar speculator bets increased by over 15,000 contracts this week.
– The overall standing for the Canadian Dollar, however, remains bearish at -93,140 contracts level.

Japanese Yen
– The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over 6,000 contracts this week as yen speculator bets have been cooling off.
– The Yen position has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks after reaching an all-time high in April above +179,000 contracts.

Swiss Franc
– Swiss Franc contracts rose by almost 5,000 contracts this week.
– Over the last 10 weeks, Swiss Franc positions have improved in 7 out of the last 10 weeks, reducing the overall bearish level by almost half (from approximately -42,000 to -21,000 contracts).

U.S. Dollar Index
– The U.S. Dollar index positions slightly improved this week and have now risen for five straight weeks (following declines in 8 out of previous 11 weeks)
– The current standing is currently still a small, bullish position of just +1,402 net contracts.

Market Price Changes this week:

Currency markets saw the euro and Swiss franc both rise by over 1%. The Mexican peso, Bitcoin, and the Canadian dollar each gained nearly 1%. The Brazilian real, Japanese yen, and British pound all increased by around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar index, however, was the week’s biggest loser, dropping nearly 1%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (90 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (64 percent), Mexican Peso (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (64.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (60.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (90.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.5 percent)
Bitcoin (7.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)

British Pound & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (13 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (6 percent), the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-17 percent), the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-7.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-23.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	24.1	12.1
– Net Position:	1,402	-35	-1,367
– Gross Longs:	17,027	7,344	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	15,625	7,379	3,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	93.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.2	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 93,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	55.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	74.1	5.5
– Net Position:	93,025	-151,256	58,231
– Gross Longs:	208,754	449,157	102,489
– Gross Shorts:	115,729	600,413	44,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	29.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	5.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.4	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	56.7	12.7
– Net Position:	51,634	-60,562	8,928
– Gross Longs:	111,076	60,665	36,199
– Gross Shorts:	59,442	121,227	27,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.8	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.8	6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 144,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	34.0	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	77.6	7.6
– Net Position:	144,595	-169,077	24,482
– Gross Longs:	184,195	132,044	54,124
– Gross Shorts:	39,600	301,121	29,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	8.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	8.3	4.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	62.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	39.7	17.7
– Net Position:	-21,268	19,842	1,426
– Gross Longs:	9,240	54,331	16,806
– Gross Shorts:	30,508	34,489	15,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	31.9	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.8	10.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	77.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	45.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-93,143	91,207	1,936
– Gross Longs:	19,651	223,285	27,489
– Gross Shorts:	112,794	132,078	25,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	52.3	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	6.7	28.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	68.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	40.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-69,944	63,770	6,174
– Gross Longs:	23,997	153,541	26,785
– Gross Shorts:	93,941	89,771	20,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	68.0	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	8.9	13.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	73.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	47.6	5.2
– Net Position:	-21,235	20,783	452
– Gross Longs:	9,312	58,294	4,562
– Gross Shorts:	30,547	37,511	4,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	57.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.6	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.8	31.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.3	1.8
– Net Position:	62,726	-65,910	3,184
– Gross Longs:	99,017	57,439	6,351
– Gross Shorts:	36,291	123,349	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	40.3	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	29.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	39,301	-42,872	3,571
– Gross Longs:	61,321	28,434	4,511
– Gross Shorts:	22,020	71,306	940
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	22.2	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	22.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	7.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.5	1.5	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,009	1,741	268
– Gross Longs:	24,781	2,198	1,529
– Gross Shorts:	26,790	457	1,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	95.4	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	18.4	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Silver and 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 10th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 40 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,216 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,936 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in tied with Brent at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is also at a 100 percent or maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 21 points this week. The speculator position registered 66,650 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,880 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18 points this week. The overall speculator position was -203,747 net contracts this week with a jump of 24,696 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12 points this week.

The speculator position was 115,175 net contracts this week with a jump of 11,892 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -10 points this week. The overall speculator position was 144,595 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,554 contracts in the speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,470,920 net contracts this week with a drop by -74,384 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40 points this week. The speculator position was -369,282 net contracts this week with a small gain of 2,306 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29 points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,132,456 net contracts this week with a reduction by -202,389 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19 points this week. The speculator position was -19,515 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -15,671 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17 points this week. The speculator position was -2,009 net contracts this week with an increase of 303 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Opinions

15 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Bets led higher by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,930 contracts) with Silver (5,880 contracts), Copper (2,257 contracts), Palladium (1,485 contracts) and also Steel (666 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a small decline of -424 contracts on the week.

Metals Markets Price Changes:

In the metals market prices, platinum rose strongly with a gain of over 5%. Gold followed with an increase of more than 3.5%, and silver edged up by nearly 1%. Conversely, palladium and copper saw declines of 1% and 1.5%, respectively, while steel dropped significantly by over 6%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Platinum (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Gold (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-Year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.6 percent)
Copper (57.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.7 percent)
Platinum (79.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.4 percent)
Palladium (60.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (49.7 percent)
Steel (71.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.7 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (40 percent) and Palladium (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (21 percent), Gold (9 percent) and Copper (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.8 percent)
Silver (21.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (20.2 percent)
Copper (6.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-0.6 percent)
Platinum (40.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.0 percent)
Palladium (38.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (-7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	16.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.8	4.5
– Net Position:	187,481	-222,718	35,237
– Gross Longs:	245,995	68,432	54,008
– Gross Shorts:	58,514	291,150	18,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	42.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-11.5	28.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	20.0	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	69.2	8.2
– Net Position:	66,650	-85,661	19,011
– Gross Longs:	85,192	34,871	33,366
– Gross Shorts:	18,542	120,532	14,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-18.1	-1.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	29.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	44.4	6.1
– Net Position:	26,351	-30,284	3,933
– Gross Longs:	72,101	61,691	16,679
– Gross Shorts:	45,750	91,975	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	44.3	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-8.8	19.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	48.2	6.4
– Net Position:	26,979	-31,881	4,902
– Gross Longs:	62,728	16,169	11,302
– Gross Shorts:	35,749	48,050	6,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.5	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-38.2	0.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	39.5	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	16.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-5,808	4,570	1,238
– Gross Longs:	8,124	7,661	2,653
– Gross Shorts:	13,932	3,091	1,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	32.1	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-41.5	14.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	69.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	67.4	0.4
– Net Position:	-878	707	171
– Gross Longs:	8,135	22,383	298
– Gross Shorts:	9,013	21,676	127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	29.5	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	6.4	27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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