COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 11

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn, Lean Hogs & Wheat

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Lean Hogs & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (18,485 contracts) with Lean Hogs (7,272 contracts), Wheat (7,146 contracts), Live Cattle (3,958 contracts), Coffee (3,712 contracts) and Soybeans (3,231 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,568 contracts), Sugar (-11,067 contracts), Cotton (-10,606 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,127 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,299 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Weekly Price Gains

Leading the soft commodities gains this week was Cocoa, with a 9.3% rise for the last five days of trading. Cocoa has been up by almost 28% over the last 90 days.

Next up, Soybean Meal was up by 2.64% on the week. Soybean Meal, however, has been down by -3.5% over the last 30 days and is down by just -1.11% over the last 90 days.

Lean hogs came in third this week with a gain of 2.17%. Lean Hogs is up by 6.52% in the last 30 days and up by over 7% in the last 90 days.

Corn was the only other riser on the week, with a 1.56% gain. Despite this gain, Corn is down by -7.64% in the last 90 days.

On the downside, Soybean Oil saw a small decline by -0.43% this week. Cotton was down by -0.8% this week. Live cattle saw a decline by -1.53%, but has been up by 17.56% over the last 90 days.

Next up, Wheat was lower by -1.65%, and Soybeans were lower by -1.75%. Coffee saw a drop by -3.2% this week, and Sugar saw the biggest drop with a -4.82% decline. Sugar is now down by -10.36% over the last 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (87 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (67 percent), Coffee (60 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (8 percent), Soybean Meal (12 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (59.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.2 percent)
Soybeans (56.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.4 percent)
Live Cattle (86.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (90.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (84.7 percent)
Cotton (8.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.9 percent)
Cocoa (16.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (37.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.8 percent)

Corn & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (11 percent) and Soybean Meal (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (6 percent), Coffee (4 percent) and Live Cattle (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-14 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.0 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (3.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.1 percent)
Soybeans (-3.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-7.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-14.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	46.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	40.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-52,455	87,814	-35,359
– Gross Longs:	350,610	672,040	123,585
– Gross Shorts:	403,065	584,226	158,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	70.5	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-11.8	-4.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -85,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	53.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	44.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-85,805	88,575	-2,770
– Gross Longs:	184,300	505,407	70,352
– Gross Shorts:	270,105	416,832	73,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.8	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	3.9	13.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	38.4	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	60.4	3.9
– Net Position:	34,986	-37,500	2,514
– Gross Longs:	57,564	65,225	9,080
– Gross Shorts:	22,578	102,725	6,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	41.2	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-5.4	30.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	56.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	56.8	7.5
– Net Position:	21,420	-6,672	-14,748
– Gross Longs:	157,352	483,406	49,895
– Gross Shorts:	135,932	490,078	64,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	42.3	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	3.2	7.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	44.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	53.3	4.2
– Net Position:	46,383	-54,688	8,305
– Gross Longs:	134,545	268,814	33,950
– Gross Shorts:	88,162	323,502	25,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	33.7	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	18.1	-26.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -54,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	53.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	45.8	5.9
– Net Position:	-54,464	41,895	12,569
– Gross Longs:	108,170	308,856	47,190
– Gross Shorts:	162,634	266,961	34,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	91.4	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-4.1	-46.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 110,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.4	27.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	50.4	12.5
– Net Position:	110,235	-89,518	-20,717
– Gross Longs:	192,249	110,848	28,932
– Gross Shorts:	82,014	200,366	49,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	13.3	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-4.2	7.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	26.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	48.3	7.6
– Net Position:	83,340	-79,175	-4,165
– Gross Longs:	163,887	96,532	23,591
– Gross Shorts:	80,547	175,707	27,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	8.2	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.1	4.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	30.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,212	48,968	-756
– Gross Longs:	70,472	126,343	12,788
– Gross Shorts:	118,684	77,375	13,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.5	92.7	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	-7.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	47.0	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	58.7	8.0
– Net Position:	6,697	-10,548	3,851
– Gross Longs:	24,029	42,365	11,040
– Gross Shorts:	17,332	52,913	7,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	83.2	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.8	-1.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -71,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	37.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	20.5	7.6
– Net Position:	-71,636	71,701	-65
– Gross Longs:	126,625	159,079	32,467
– Gross Shorts:	198,261	87,378	32,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	63.1	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	10.3	37.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Sugar, VIX, 5-Yr Bond & WTI Crude lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 2nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 6 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 12,692 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,006 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is now at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 83,340 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 7,272 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 110,235 net contracts this week with an advance by 3,958 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 55,923 net contracts this week with a positive change of 9,457 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Heating Oil speculator level sitting at an 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 12 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 30,246 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,479 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -85,805 net contracts this week with a change of -11,067 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was big drop by -48 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -13,814 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,681,987 net contracts this week with a reduction by -218,016 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth market tied as this week’s most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 102,428 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,044 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall of -4 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -5,021 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,084 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

31 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 1-Year High, Euro & Yen Bets advance

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Mexican Peso & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (6,903 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,473 contracts), the EuroFX (4,294 contracts), Bitcoin (828 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,936 contracts) with the British Pound (-6,168 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,703 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,035 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,494 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-117 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Bets rise to over 1-Year High, Euro & Yen Bets advance

Highlighting this week’s currency COT data is the Mexican Peso speculator positions that have risen for 2 straight weeks and in 5 out of the past 6 weeks. Overall, the Mexican Peso’s speculative positions have been in a continuous bullish position for 31 consecutive weeks as it has only had one bearish week (January 21, 2025 at -1,544 contracts) out of the last 129 weeks, dating back to March of 2023.

The current Peso standing is now at +68,998 net contracts, which marks the highest level in over a year, dating back to July 30th of 2024. The Peso’s speculative strength score is at a modest 64% of its 3-year range with a 6-week increase in strength (trend score) by 9.6% – indicating a strong bullish sentiment but not near extreme.

In the exchange rate market, the Peso has continued to rise steadily against the U.S. Dollar with a recent break above its 200-week moving average. The Peso is now up by approximately 12% on the year versus the U.S. Dollar with the futures price closing at 0.0535 this week.

More Currency Positioning:

Japanese Yen speculator bets this week rose by almost +7,000 contracts and were higher for a second consecutive week. Prior to these latest 2 weeks, the Japanese Yen bets had fallen for 3 straight weeks and for 6 out of the previous 7 weeks. From March 4th all the way to July 22nd, the Japanese Yen speculator bets were extremely bullish and above the +100,000 net contract level for a stretch of 21 consecutive weeks including new all-time record highs in April. Currently, the Japanese Yen speculator positions are still highly bullish but have fallen out of the +100,000 contract range, with this week’s standing at +84,484 net contracts.

The Euro positions rose again this week for a second straight week after seeing declines in the previous 4 weeks. This week’s increase has pushed the net position to a 4-week high of +123,039 net contracts. The Euro positioning has been highly bullish with 11 consecutive weeks of speculator positions above +100,000 contracts. Overall, the euro positioning has been in a bullish standing for 25 consecutive weeks after seeing its last bearish level on March 4th of this year. The Euro price versus the US dollar in the forex markets has been on a strong run this year as well, with gains of approximately 14% against the USD over 2025. The euro started the year around the 1.0335 level and ended this week at the 1.1710 exchange rate.

The Canadian dollar speculator positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks The CAD positions have now declined in 8 out of the last 9 weeks as well, with a 9-week period decline of -51,848 contracts. The Canadian dollar speculator standing sits right now at -105,015 contracts, the lowest level since June 2021. Overall, the Canadian dollar speculator position has been in a bearish level since August of 2023, a span of 108 weeks. Despite the speculator weakness for the Canadian dollar, the CAD exchange rate has been up approximately 5% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025.

The US dollar index saw a small decline this week in speculator positions. The US dollar index overall positioning has now been negative for 11 consecutive weeks. In the currency market, the US dollar index is now down since the beginning of 2025 by just about 11%, with the dollar index trading at 97.69 to close out the week.

Finally, the Australian dollar speculative position fell for a fourth straight week this week and has been down 7 out of the last 10 weeks. This week’s decline brings the overall speculative standing to -100,590 net contracts. This is the first -100,000 contract level for the AUD since April of 2024. The speculator contract level has now been in bearish territory for 37 consecutive weeks, with a 3-year strength score showing just 4.9% – illustrating the Australian dollar’s current level is near the bottom of its 3-year range. Despite the weak speculative sentiment, the Australian dollar exchange rate has been higher by almost 6.5% this year against the US dollar, with the currency ending the week at a 0.6547 exchange.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) lead price gains this week

The currency market price performance on the week was led by the commodity currencies. First, the Australian Dollar rose by 0.87%, followed closely by the Canadian Dollar with a 0.70% rise, and the New Zealand Dollar, which advanced by 0.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index was up marginally by 0.15%, followed by the Swiss franc which had a small gain of 0.14%. The Japanese yen was virtually unchanged on the week.

The British Pound Sterling was also virtually unchanged with a -0.03% decline, followed by the Brazilian Real, which was a tad bit lower by -0.05%. The Euro fell by -0.19%, and the Mexican Peso was lower by -0.39%. The biggest loss on the week was had by Bitcoin, with a -7.22% decline for the last five days.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Japanese Yen (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (68 percent), Mexican Peso (64 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the Australian Dollar (5 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.4 percent)
EuroFX (75.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (20.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (72.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (42.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (57.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (44.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (27.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-18 percent), Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-28.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-27.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-10.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-10.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-18.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (44.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (26.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.