COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Large Speculators push Mexican Peso Bets to a 65-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (22,918 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (18,385 contracts), the EuroFX (6,085 contracts), the Australian Dollar (3,452 contracts), the Mexican Peso (719 contracts), Bitcoin (434 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (59 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Swiss Franc (-2,951 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,269 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-537 contracts) and with the British Pound (-465 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Speculators push Mexican Peso Bets to a 65-week high

Highlighting the currency speculator positions this week is the increasingly bullish Mexican Peso sentiment. Speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican Peso this week for a fourth consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. The Peso position has now added +23,610 net contracts over these past eight weeks and this bullish momentum has brought the current net standing to a total of +73,732 net bullish contracts.

This marks the highest level for the Mexican Peso contracts in the past 65 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2024 when the net position was last over +100,000 contracts. The Peso positioning was strong throughout the first half of 2024 with 15 consecutive weeks of contracts over the +100,000 contract level. Peso bets then started to cool off mid-2024 and steadily decreased to an overall negative net position on January 21st of 2025. Since then, contracts have rebounded, improved and increased to this week’s 65-week high.

Despite the increased bullishness for the Peso, the strength score is still just modestly high at 66% of its three-year range. This shows that if bullish momentum continues, there is plenty of room to go before a bullish extreme is reached.

The Mexican Peso position in the exchange markets versus the US dollar has been on an uptrend since the beginning of the year. The Peso has risen through its 200-week moving average and is currently up 13.10% against the US Dollar so far.

Bitcoin leads Price Performance for the Week

The currency market price performance this week was led by Bitcoin, which rose by 4.41% for the past 5 days. Bitcoin is now up by 13% over the last 90 days.

Next was the Australian Dollar, which increased by 1.50% this week. The Australian Dollar is up by 3% over the last 30 days and is higher by 3.74% over the last 90 days. The Mexican Peso came in next with a 1.47% gain and the Peso has risen by 5.57% over the past 90 days.

The New Zealand Dollar advanced by 1.16% over the last five days. The Brazilian Real saw a gain of 0.86% while the Real is now up by approximately 6% in the last 90 days.

The British Pound Sterling came in next with a 0.45% rise, followed by the Swiss Franc, which was higher by 0.26%. The Euro saw prices edge up by just 0.16% and the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged with a 0.05% advance.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged, down by -0.07%, while the Japanese Yen was just a tick lower with a -0.09% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (90 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (76 percent), Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the British Pound (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.0 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (75.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (70.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (54.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.5 percent)
Bitcoin (42.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (33.6 percent)

Brazilian Real & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (26 percent) and Bitcoin (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (9 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-11 percent), Swiss Franc (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-3.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.9 percent)
EuroFX (0.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-2.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-11.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (0.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (26.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.9 percent)
Bitcoin (11.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	34.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.1	17.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-5,558	6,642	-1,084
– Gross Longs:	19,192	13,288	2,604
– Gross Shorts:	24,750	6,646	3,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	99.8	15.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	6.4	-18.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 125,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	53.4	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	73.9	5.3
– Net Position:	125,677	-179,647	53,970
– Gross Longs:	258,049	468,861	100,417
– Gross Shorts:	132,372	648,508	46,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.0	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.3	3.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,140 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	57.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	47.9	9.2
– Net Position:	-33,605	29,784	3,821
– Gross Longs:	74,849	184,370	33,639
– Gross Shorts:	108,454	154,586	29,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	78.9	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	7.1	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	38.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	62.9	8.5
– Net Position:	91,643	-100,442	8,799
– Gross Longs:	180,724	157,854	43,537
– Gross Shorts:	89,081	258,296	34,738
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.9	25.6	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-2.0	12.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	74.1	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	44.8	18.4
– Net Position:	-28,839	30,815	-1,976
– Gross Longs:	6,989	77,874	17,332
– Gross Shorts:	35,828	47,059	19,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	49.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	4.1	9.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -108,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 59 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	77.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	31.1	12.6
– Net Position:	-108,917	115,041	-6,124
– Gross Longs:	18,704	192,465	25,216
– Gross Shorts:	127,621	77,424	31,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	60.9	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.6	-15.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	67.8	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.5	32.6	9.2
– Net Position:	-79,231	73,221	6,010
– Gross Longs:	32,200	141,051	25,129
– Gross Shorts:	111,431	67,830	19,119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	73.6	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-1.1	7.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	53.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	38.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-8,743	10,841	-2,098
– Gross Longs:	15,479	38,065	3,637
– Gross Shorts:	24,222	27,224	5,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.4	46.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	10.9	-38.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	41.7	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	78.1	1.5
– Net Position:	73,732	-77,535	3,803
– Gross Longs:	107,503	89,064	7,051
– Gross Shorts:	33,771	166,599	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	34.4	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.0	2.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	32.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	87.9	0.8
– Net Position:	56,087	-60,098	4,011
– Gross Longs:	67,641	34,405	4,856
– Gross Shorts:	11,554	94,503	845
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	8.4	43.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-26.5	5.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.7	4.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.4	3.8	3.2
– Net Position:	-468	56	412
– Gross Longs:	23,075	1,081	1,263
– Gross Shorts:	23,543	1,025	851
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	57.9	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-10.6	-3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Sep

Speculator Extremes: MSCI EAFE-Mini & Lean Hogs lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position continues to come in as the most bullish extreme standing again this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is currently at a 99 percent (just below the maximum 100%) score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 6 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,583 net contracts this week with a small rise of 891 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was an increase by 13 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 91,584 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 8,244 contracts in speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the BRL speculator level residing at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 26 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 56,087 net contracts this week with a rise of 22,918 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week. The overall speculator position was 106,678 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,557 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -7 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 53,937 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,986 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the VIX speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -34 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -107,810 net contracts this week with a dip of -858 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Sugar speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -18 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -139,610 net contracts this week with a sharp drop of -53,805 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude speculator level resides at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 81,844 net contracts this week with a reduction by -20,584 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the USD Index speculator level at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -4 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -5,558 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -537 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,554,763 net contracts this week with a jump by 127,224 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

13 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (127,224 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (59,952 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (59,011 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (10,386 contracts) and the Fed Funds (8,418 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-78,878 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-72,136 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-21,340 contracts), and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Treasury Bond leads Price Performance

The bond market price performance this week was led by the long US Treasury Bond with a gain of 1.56% on the week. The US Treasury Bond has been up by 3.50% over the last 30 days and higher by 3.10% over the last 90 days.

The Fed Funds increased by 0.29% for the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was up by a quarter of a percent, followed by the 10-Year Note, which rose by 0.23% on the week. The 10-year is higher over 2% in the last 30 days, and for the last 90 days, the 10-year has risen by 2.62%.

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate and the 2-Year Bond were virtually unchanged, as well as the 5-Year Bond, which saw a minuscule dip of -0.05%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (27.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (30.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (35.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (49.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (34.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (46.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (4 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-15 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (-15 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-36.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-42.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-15.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (6.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (8.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -207,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	69.8	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	60.7	1.8
– Net Position:	-207,456	205,810	1,646
– Gross Longs:	241,031	1,579,710	42,737
– Gross Shorts:	448,487	1,373,900	41,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	70.6	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.0	40.7	-29.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -266,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 59,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -325,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	53.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-266,004	255,762	10,242
– Gross Longs:	1,927,628	7,452,204	41,362
– Gross Shorts:	2,193,632	7,196,442	31,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-13.2	11.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -209,777 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -72,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	68.3	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	54.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-209,777	209,228	549
– Gross Longs:	213,010	1,065,129	958
– Gross Shorts:	422,787	855,901	409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	82.9	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	15.7	-5.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,374,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,296,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	78.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.8	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,374,961	1,225,975	148,986
– Gross Longs:	549,072	3,577,509	251,198
– Gross Shorts:	1,924,033	2,351,534	102,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.4	88.4	76.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-3.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,554,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,681,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	50.1	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,554,763	2,315,862	238,901
– Gross Longs:	455,152	5,716,348	486,457
– Gross Shorts:	3,009,915	3,400,486	247,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	91.0	97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-1.7	19.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -857,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -868,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	63.8	6.3
– Net Position:	-857,972	719,102	138,870
– Gross Longs:	627,289	4,079,093	471,296
– Gross Shorts:	1,485,261	3,359,991	332,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	61.8	86.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-11.7	14.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -274,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 59,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	74.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	60.9	12.3
– Net Position:	-274,924	329,264	-54,340
– Gross Longs:	344,178	1,775,423	237,817
– Gross Shorts:	619,102	1,446,159	292,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	62.4	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-23.3	13.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,340 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	76.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	78.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-98,608	-32,796	131,404
– Gross Longs:	159,934	1,409,130	254,567
– Gross Shorts:	258,542	1,441,926	123,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	29.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-12.9	27.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to 29-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (12,210 contracts) with Copper (1,583 contracts) and Palladium (306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-2,642 contracts), Silver (-1,986 contracts) and Steel (-383 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets rise to 29-Week High

Gold speculator bets were up for the third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the last 11 weeks. Gold speculator bets have now risen by almost +50,000 contracts just in the last two weeks alone.

This boost in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator net position to a total of +261,740 net contracts. This marks the highest level in 29 weeks, dating back to February 18th of 2025. The gold speculator position has now been above the +200,000 contract level for 11 consecutive weeks.

Palladium Leads the Metals Price Performance

The metals market’s performance this week was led by Palladium, which jumped by over 9%. Palladium has now been up by roughly 25% over the past 90 days.

Silver was up by 3% this week, and has now been up by 15% over the past 30 days, while racing higher by almost 30% in the past 90 days.

Copper came in third with a 2.51% gain on the week. Copper is the only metal that has been down over the last 90 days, with a -2.05% decrease.

Platinum rose this week by 1.59%, and has been up by a significant 40.25% over the past 90 days. Gold rose by 1.34% this week, and has been up by roughly 9% in the past 90 days.

Steel was the only metal to see a weekly decline. Steel dropped by -4.65%, although Steel has been up by roughly 7% in the past 30 days, and has been higher by 19.53% over the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (82 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (47 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.0 percent)
Silver (82.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (58.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.1 percent)
Platinum (46.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (53.5 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.1 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (63.0 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.3 percent)
Silver (-7.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.3 percent)
Copper (-9.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.2 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.2 percent)
Palladium (-14.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.1 percent)
Steel (-9.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.7	14.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	68.1	9.3
– Net Position:	261,740	-273,375	11,635
– Gross Longs:	324,875	73,850	58,990
– Gross Shorts:	63,135	347,225	47,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.6	23.9	12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-5.2	-80.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	25.6	20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	72.5	8.1
– Net Position:	53,937	-73,402	19,465
– Gross Longs:	72,450	40,163	32,191
– Gross Shorts:	18,513	113,565	12,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	15.6	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.9	-0.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 27,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	31.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	48.5	4.0
– Net Position:	27,241	-36,015	8,774
– Gross Longs:	64,293	65,052	17,170
– Gross Shorts:	37,052	101,067	8,396
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	39.4	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	0.9	54.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	21.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	43.0	5.1
– Net Position:	14,356	-20,210	5,854
– Gross Longs:	53,057	20,511	10,723
– Gross Shorts:	38,701	40,721	4,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	54.3	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	12.3	16.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	36.5	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.6	26.4	5.9
– Net Position:	-3,742	1,963	1,779
– Gross Longs:	8,453	7,113	2,931
– Gross Shorts:	12,195	5,150	1,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	12.2	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	11.1	14.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	74.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	74.9	1.5
– Net Position:	-56	-107	163
– Gross Longs:	4,453	16,054	477
– Gross Shorts:	4,509	16,161	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.2	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.8	-5.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Natural Gas & Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Natural Gas & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Natural Gas (8,229 contracts) with Brent Oil (2,447 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-20,584 contracts), Heating Oil (-10,789 contracts), the Bloomberg Index (-522 contracts) and Gasoline (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude Oil Leads Weekly Price Performance

Brent Oil led the energy markets in price gains this week with a 1.83% rise for the last five days. Brent Crude has been down by over -5% in the last 30 days, but is up by 18% over the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest gainer with a 1.4% increase over the past five days. Heating Oil rose by 1.33% this week and has been up by almost 20% over the last 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil rose by 0.97%. WTI has been down by about -8% over the past 30 days, while also being higher by 17.58% over the past 90 days. Gasoline was the next highest mover with a 0.92% increase for the week.

Natural Gas was the only decliner on the week with a -3.25% decrease. Natural Gas has been down by approximately -8% over the past 30 days, and over the past 90 days, Natural Gas has been down by over -30%.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (7.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (43.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (40.3 percent)
Natural Gas (66.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (60.0 percent)
Gasoline (40.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.2 percent)
Heating Oil (69.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.0 percent)

Gasoline & Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the energy markets have negative trend scores at the current time.

Gasoline (-1.7 percent) and Brent Oil (-5.8 percent) have the least negative scores while WTI Crude (-27.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-10.4 percent) have the most negative scores in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-27.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-19.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-5.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-16.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-19.3 percent)
Gasoline (-1.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-6.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (11.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-10.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-8.2 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 81,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	41.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	47.1	2.5
– Net Position:	81,844	-102,155	20,311
– Gross Longs:	274,256	818,832	69,296
– Gross Shorts:	192,412	920,987	48,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.7	27.7	-6.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	44.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	32.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-26,195	25,347	848
– Gross Longs:	37,678	92,625	7,193
– Gross Shorts:	63,873	67,278	6,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	58.0	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	5.3	7.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -94,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	30.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	25.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-94,547	83,316	11,231
– Gross Longs:	282,995	502,932	56,670
– Gross Shorts:	377,542	419,616	45,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	38.5	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	11.8	-16.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 41,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	48.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	64.1	4.6
– Net Position:	41,121	-52,405	11,284
– Gross Longs:	81,040	164,911	26,762
– Gross Shorts:	39,919	217,316	15,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	52.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-5.2	32.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 19,457 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	43.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	55.7	7.2
– Net Position:	19,457	-45,269	25,812
– Gross Longs:	56,751	168,677	53,529
– Gross Shorts:	37,294	213,946	27,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	23.5	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.6	-2.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	80.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	74.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-13,779	13,468	311
– Gross Longs:	33,670	161,484	425
– Gross Shorts:	47,449	148,016	114
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	54.9	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	10.3	0.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

13 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (8,244 contracts) with Soybean Meal (5,505 contracts), Coffee (3,531 contracts) and Cocoa (249 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-53,805 contracts), Soybeans (-13,097 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,503 contracts), Wheat (-10,503 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,557 contracts), Cotton (-3,122 contracts) and with Corn (-1,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee led weekly price gains

The soft commodities price performance this week was overwhelmingly positive and led by Coffee, which rose by almost 6% on the week. Coffee is up by almost 37% in the last 30 days, and over the last 90 days, Coffee is higher by 6.54%.

Next, Cocoa was the second highest gainer over the last five days with a rise of 2.83%. Corn was also up over two percent with a 2.11% weekly rise. Soybeans increased by 1.71% over the last five days, Soybean meal was up by 1.44% and Sugar was rose by 1.19%. Lean Hogs came in next with a gain of 0.91%. Lean Hogs is now up by over 9% in the last 30 days and is higher by approximately 10% in the last 90 days.

Cotton rose by 0.87% this week while Wheat also saw a weekly rise of 0.48%.

Soybean Oil fell this week by -0.71%, while Live Cattle saw the largest decline on the week by -1.56%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (63 percent), Soybean Oil (61 percent) and Soybeans (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (7 percent), Soybean Meal (14 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (29.1 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.8 percent)
Coffee (63.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (52.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.3 percent)
Live Cattle (83.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (86.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (90.2 percent)
Cotton (6.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (17.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.8 percent)
Wheat (29.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.6 percent)

Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (13 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (11 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Soybeans (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-18 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Wheat (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.1 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (8.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (4.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-3.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-29.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (0.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.2 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.7 percent)
Cocoa (-3.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -54,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	45.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-54,244	85,990	-31,746
– Gross Longs:	344,492	677,221	128,809
– Gross Shorts:	398,736	591,231	160,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	70.2	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-11.8	-1.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -53,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	55.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	40.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-139,610	140,084	-474
– Gross Longs:	170,080	528,585	78,302
– Gross Shorts:	309,690	388,501	78,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.4	6.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 38,517 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	37.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	61.0	3.8
– Net Position:	38,517	-40,893	2,376
– Gross Longs:	60,922	67,067	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	22,405	107,960	6,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	37.9	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-10.1	33.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	57.6	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	57.0	7.3
– Net Position:	8,323	4,933	-13,256
– Gross Longs:	153,365	498,887	50,276
– Gross Shorts:	145,042	493,954	63,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	45.4	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-6.2	10.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	45.6	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	52.0	4.4
– Net Position:	33,880	-40,372	6,492
– Gross Longs:	130,047	287,877	34,368
– Gross Shorts:	96,167	328,249	27,876
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	41.0	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.4	32.2	-49.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	51.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	45.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-48,959	34,371	14,588
– Gross Longs:	116,199	310,435	48,089
– Gross Shorts:	165,158	276,064	33,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	88.5	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.5	-21.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	29.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	51.9	13.0
– Net Position:	106,678	-86,840	-19,838
– Gross Longs:	185,728	113,095	30,057
– Gross Shorts:	79,050	199,935	49,895
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	16.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-3.5	9.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 91,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.6	26.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	48.9	7.8
– Net Position:	91,584	-85,459	-6,125
– Gross Longs:	174,216	97,309	23,110
– Gross Shorts:	82,632	182,768	29,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	3.1	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.4	-4.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -51,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	50.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	30.3	5.5
– Net Position:	-51,334	52,788	-1,454
– Gross Longs:	70,171	130,797	12,610
– Gross Shorts:	121,505	78,009	14,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	94.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	14.8	-10.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,946 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.3	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	58.5	8.0
– Net Position:	6,946	-10,553	3,607
– Gross Longs:	23,995	44,360	11,124
– Gross Shorts:	17,049	54,913	7,517
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	83.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	2.5	5.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	38.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	19.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-82,139	81,977	162
– Gross Longs:	125,788	171,475	32,927
– Gross Shorts:	207,927	89,498	32,765
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	72.4	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.0	14.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Sep

Australian Dollar Speculator Bets rebound after dropping to over 1-Year Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (17,907 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (4,253 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,015 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,090 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (1,084 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,226 contracts), the EuroFX (-3,447 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-3,961 contracts), the British Pound (-1,787 contracts), Bitcoin (-530 contracts) and with the New Zealand Dollar (-369 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Round Up: Australian Dollar Bets rebound after dropping to over 1-Year Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculative data with the Australian Dollar, which saw a strong gain this week by over 17,000 contracts. This was the first increase in the last five weeks for the Australian Dollar positions and brings the overall speculative sentiment level to -82,683 contracts. The Aussie positioning last week dropped to over -100,000 contracts which was the lowest level of the past 71 weeks, dating back to April 16th of 2024. Overall, the Australian Dollar speculative position continues to remain in an extreme weak speculator position and the Aussie speculative bets have now been in a negative position for 38 consecutive weeks, dating back to December of 2024.

The US Dollar Index speculator position rose this week by over 1,000 contracts, and has now edged higher for three out of the last four weeks. Despite the little bump up in sentiment, the US Dollar Index contracts remain in bearish territory with a standing of over -5,000 net contracts. The US Dollar Index has now been in a bearish position for 12 consecutive weeks.

The Euro currency contracts fell this week by almost -3,500 contracts, but the Euro position continues to be in a strongly bullish level. This week’s Euro speculator standing is at +119,592 contracts, and this week is the 12th consecutive week that the speculative position has been over +100,000 contracts. Overall, the Euro has been in a bullish position for 26 consecutive weeks.

The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over -11,000 net positions this week and the positive speculator position has been slowly but steadily eroding week to week. Since ascending to a new all-time record high bullish position in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts, the bullish position has now shed -105,954 contracts over the past 18 weeks to bring the current position this week to +73,258 contracts. Overall, the Japanese Yen position has now been continuously bullish since February 4th for 31 consecutive weekly bullish positions.

The Canadian Dollar continued to see bearish sentiment and the speculator position declined this week by almost -4,000 contracts. The Canadian Dollar spec position has now fallen in 9 out of the last 10 weeks for a 10-week total of – 55,809 contracts. The overall net position has now dropped to its most bearish level since April (a span of 21 straight weeks) with the Canadian Dollar net position at -108,976 contracts.

Mexican peso positions this week rose for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time out of the last seven weeks. Over the last 7-week period, Peso positions have now advanced by approximately 23,000 contracts. This recent bullish sentiment has brought the Peso positions to the highest level in the past 64 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2024. The current bullish net position for the Peso is at +73,013 contracts.

Bitcoin Leads Price Performance over last 5 days

Leading the currency market returns this week was Bitcoin, which saw a gain of 3.22%. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin has been down by -4.35%, but over the last 90 days, Bitcoin has been up by 15%.

Next up, the Brazilian Real was higher by 0.52%. The Real is up by over 5% in the last 90 days. The Swiss Franc comes in next with a 0.23% gain on the week. The Swiss Franc is higher by 3.50 percent over the last 90 days. Similarly, the Euro was up by 0.17% this week and is up by 3.62% over the last 90 days.

The Australian Dollar was higher by a minuscule 0.12% this week and has seen a 1.63% gain over the last 90 days. The U.S. Dollar Index was virtually unchanged (+0.04%) on the week.

The British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.09% on the week. The New Zealand Dollar was down by -0.17% on the week. The Mexican Peso fell by -0.26% this week and is higher by 4.73% over the last 90 days. The Japanese Yen fell by -0.34% on the week, while the Canadian Dollar saw the biggest decline with a -0.85% shortfall in trading this week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX, Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (74 percent), the Brazilian Real (71 percent) and the Japanese Yen (71 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (18 percent) and the Bitcoin (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (70.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (57.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.0 percent)
Bitcoin (33.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.8 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores to show where speculator bets are trending towards) showed that Bitcoin (20 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-3.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.7 percent)
EuroFX (-2.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-2.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-16.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-5.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-11.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (9.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (5.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.8 percent)
Bitcoin (20.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	38.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.3	20.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-5,021	5,790	-769
– Gross Longs:	13,645	12,109	2,799
– Gross Shorts:	18,666	6,319	3,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	97.9	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.0	-3.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 119,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	74.1	5.2
– Net Position:	119,592	-171,269	51,677
– Gross Longs:	255,660	455,696	95,363
– Gross Shorts:	136,068	626,965	43,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	22.9	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.2	-1.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,140 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,353 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	51.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.2	37.8	13.3
– Net Position:	-33,140	31,804	1,336
– Gross Longs:	76,062	117,507	31,465
– Gross Shorts:	109,202	85,703	30,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	77.0	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.5	-8.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	36.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	55.3	9.1
– Net Position:	73,258	-76,256	2,998
– Gross Longs:	174,774	152,763	40,872
– Gross Shorts:	101,516	229,019	37,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	31.7	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.4	-18.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	72.9	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	32.7	24.7
– Net Position:	-25,888	32,459	-6,571
– Gross Longs:	8,401	58,949	13,448
– Gross Shorts:	34,289	26,490	20,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.4	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	9.8	-26.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -108,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.7	25.7	12.8
– Net Position:	-108,976	115,358	-6,382
– Gross Longs:	16,584	173,237	22,486
– Gross Shorts:	125,560	57,879	28,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	61.1	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	19.3	-14.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	67.5	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.7	24.8	11.2
– Net Position:	-82,683	79,114	3,569
– Gross Longs:	29,677	124,987	24,268
– Gross Shorts:	112,360	45,873	20,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	77.1	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	1.1	-0.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	53.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	39.0	9.7
– Net Position:	-6,474	8,096	-1,622
– Gross Longs:	17,462	29,585	3,726
– Gross Shorts:	23,936	21,489	5,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	43.2	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	5.4	-19.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	36.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	79.3	1.9
– Net Position:	73,013	-76,018	3,005
– Gross Longs:	101,520	66,278	6,414
– Gross Shorts:	28,507	142,296	3,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	35.1	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-8.1	-7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,253 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,916 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	45.3	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	70.8	3.4
– Net Position:	33,169	-33,825	656
– Gross Longs:	67,244	60,088	5,168
– Gross Shorts:	34,075	93,913	4,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.4	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-3.6	-16.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.1	5.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.5	2.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-902	649	253
– Gross Longs:	22,452	1,343	1,189
– Gross Shorts:	23,354	694	936
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	71.1	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-13.3	-18.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets boosted led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (35,219 contracts) with Silver (9,457 contracts), Platinum (1,212 contracts), Steel (244 contracts) and Palladium (93 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a dip by -572 contracts on the week.

Gold and Silver lead Weekly Price Performance

Metals markets performance this week was led by both Gold and Silver. Gold showed a weekly gain of 5.09% while over the past 30 days, Gold is up by 6.7%, and over the last 90 days, Gold is higher by 7.11%.

Next up, Silver almost matched Gold with a 4.74% gain, while over the last 30 days, Silver is up by 4.83%, and over the last 90 days, Silver is higher by over 23%.

Steel was a little higher this week with a 0.75% advance. Over the last 30 days, Steel has been up by over -7% but over the last 90 days, Steel is up by approximately 19%.

Palladium saw a small gain of 0.38% this week. Palladium has been down by over -9% in the last 30 days, but has been higher by 17.38% in the last 90 days.

Platinum edged up by 0.33% this week. Platinum has been down by -1.79% over the last 30 days, but has been surging higher over the last 90 days by 42.96%. Copper saw a minuscule 0.04% gain this week while over the last 30 days, Copper has tumbled by -22.75% and over the last 90 days, Copper is down by -8.21%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (85 percent) and Gold (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (75.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.6 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (72.4 percent)
Copper (57.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.7 percent)
Platinum (53.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.5 percent)
Palladium (74.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.4 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (61.1 percent)

Gold & Steel have least negative 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) and Steel (-2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative trend scores. The overall negative trend scores show that despite high speculator strength levels, the sentiment has cooled off somewhat over that past 6 weeks.

Copper (-13 percent), Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-9 percent) lead the downside with the most negative trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.5 percent)
Silver (-6.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-17.3 percent)
Copper (-13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.5 percent)
Platinum (-9.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.8 percent)
Palladium (-13.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.2 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-2.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 249,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.1	15.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	70.6	6.5
– Net Position:	249,530	-273,898	24,368
– Gross Longs:	315,796	73,919	56,635
– Gross Shorts:	66,266	347,817	32,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.0	23.7	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	3.0	-16.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.0	25.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.2	9.3
– Net Position:	55,923	-74,197	18,274
– Gross Longs:	74,466	40,121	33,008
– Gross Shorts:	18,543	114,318	14,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.0	14.1	59.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	6.0	-1.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	32.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	49.6	4.8
– Net Position:	25,658	-33,950	8,292
– Gross Longs:	61,044	63,120	17,732
– Gross Shorts:	35,386	97,070	9,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	41.2	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	5.7	45.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	19.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.6	45.0	5.6
– Net Position:	16,998	-22,430	5,432
– Gross Longs:	52,156	17,575	10,365
– Gross Shorts:	35,158	40,005	4,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	48.3	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	4.0	24.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 93 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	37.0	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.2	25.6	5.9
– Net Position:	-4,048	2,106	1,942
– Gross Longs:	7,714	6,882	3,050
– Gross Shorts:	11,762	4,776	1,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	13.3	87.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	8.8	20.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	74.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	76.5	1.3
– Net Position:	327	-492	165
– Gross Longs:	4,284	15,205	430
– Gross Shorts:	3,957	15,697	265
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	37.2	57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.3	-9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

07 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (177,949 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (15,471 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-218,016 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-113,143 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-41,255 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-40,153 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-33,001 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6,205 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

U.S. Treasury Bond leads Bond Price Performance this week

Leading the bond market’s price changes this week were the longer bonds, as the long U.S. Treasury Bond rose by 1.54% on the week. This bond has seen a 3.11% gain over the last 30 days.

Next, the 10-Year Note was higher by 0.5% on the week. The 10-Year Note has also been up by 2.39% over the last 30 days and is higher by 1.24% over the last 90 days.

The 5-Year Bond was up by 0.25% over the last five days, has been up by 1.51% over the last 30 days, and is up by almost 1% over the last 90 days.

The Fed Funds Futures price was up by 0.24% this week, followed by the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which was up by 0.21% while the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate was up by just 0.12%.

The 2-Year Bond was virtually unchanged this week. The 2-Year Bond has been up by 0.51% over the last 30 days and is virtually unchanged over the last 90 days.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (27.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (0.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (30.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (34.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (62.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (45.6 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 1-Month (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-42 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-13 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-42.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-70.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (32.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (6.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (8.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (10.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -215,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 177,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -393,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	68.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	57.8	1.9
– Net Position:	-215,874	215,322	552
– Gross Longs:	213,436	1,361,064	39,020
– Gross Shorts:	429,310	1,145,742	38,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	72.1	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.3	47.2	-29.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -325,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -40,153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -284,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	56.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.8	0.3
– Net Position:	-325,015	322,101	2,914
– Gross Longs:	1,865,236	7,310,674	38,455
– Gross Shorts:	2,190,251	6,988,573	35,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	56.2	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.0	9.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -137,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -113,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	63.3	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	53.8	0.0
– Net Position:	-137,641	136,441	1,200
– Gross Longs:	238,504	913,069	1,444
– Gross Shorts:	376,145	776,628	244
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	5.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	65.1	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-5.6	-6.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,296,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -33,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,263,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	78.8	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	52.4	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,296,083	1,162,858	133,225
– Gross Longs:	516,704	3,474,513	239,624
– Gross Shorts:	1,812,787	2,311,655	106,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	81.7	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	5.0	0.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,681,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -218,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,463,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	84.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	48.8	3.9
– Net Position:	-2,681,987	2,490,236	191,751
– Gross Longs:	438,497	5,874,650	459,219
– Gross Shorts:	3,120,484	3,384,414	267,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	10.3	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -868,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -883,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	78.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	63.7	6.1
– Net Position:	-868,358	742,101	126,257
– Gross Longs:	603,408	4,061,677	445,942
– Gross Shorts:	1,471,766	3,319,576	319,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	65.1	82.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	11.5	12.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -334,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -328,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	76.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	59.6	12.1
– Net Position:	-334,876	388,934	-54,058
– Gross Longs:	310,176	1,785,627	229,949
– Gross Shorts:	645,052	1,396,693	284,007
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	78.4	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-19.9	14.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -77,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	77.7	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	78.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-77,268	-20,250	97,518
– Gross Longs:	145,668	1,403,628	237,421
– Gross Shorts:	222,936	1,423,878	139,903
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	33.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-4.1	8.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Heating Oil (6,479 contracts) with Brent Oil (6,278 contracts), Gasoline (1,964 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,170 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-7,044 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (-288 contracts) which saw lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas led Energy Price Performance

Energy market performance this week was led by Natural Gas, which saw a 2.94% gain on the week. Despite that, Natural Gas is down by -6.64% over the last 30 days and is lower by -22.14% over the last 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest mover with a 0.64% gain on the week. Heating Oil also saw a tiny gain this week with a 0.04% increase. Heating Oil has been up by 13.75% over the last 90 days.

On the downside, Gasoline fell by -0.58% this week. Gasoline has been higher by 3.44% over the last 30 days and up by 7.92% over the last 90 days. Brent Oil fell by -2.92% over the last five days. Brent Oil has been higher by almost 8% over the last 90 days.

And finally, WTI Crude Oil was down by -3.47% this week, but has been up by 7.19% over the last 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (31.4 percent)
Natural Gas (60.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (59.1 percent)
Gasoline (41.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (38.5 percent)
Heating Oil (83.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (48.3 percent)

Heating Oil & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Heating Oil (12 percent) and Gasoline (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

WTI Crude Oil (-21 percent), Natural Gas (-19 percent) and Brent Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-21.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-16.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-38.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-19.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-23.0 percent)
Gasoline (9.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-6.9 percent)
Heating Oil (11.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-8.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-6.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude vs Oil ETF

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	41.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	47.3	2.5
– Net Position:	102,428	-121,395	18,967
– Gross Longs:	293,055	819,102	67,712
– Gross Shorts:	190,627	940,497	48,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	23.2	-19.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

Brent vs Oil ETF

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	45.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	31.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-28,642	28,295	347
– Gross Longs:	38,506	92,395	6,853
– Gross Shorts:	67,148	64,100	6,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	62.5	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	18.6	-4.4

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas vs ETF

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	30.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	25.4	2.5
– Net Position:	-102,776	89,212	13,564
– Gross Longs:	284,272	504,792	55,175
– Gross Shorts:	387,048	415,580	41,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	43.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	23.5	-13.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

Gasoline vs ETF

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	49.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	64.4	5.1
– Net Position:	41,306	-48,980	7,674
– Gross Longs:	83,524	157,003	24,129
– Gross Shorts:	42,218	205,983	16,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.3	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-10.7	13.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT Chart

Heating Oil vs ETF

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	40.9	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	55.5	7.6
– Net Position:	30,246	-53,510	23,264
– Gross Longs:	64,603	149,076	51,122
– Gross Shorts:	34,357	202,586	27,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	15.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-5.6	-8.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index vs ETF

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	81.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	75.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-13,257	12,966	291
– Gross Longs:	26,750	160,982	406
– Gross Shorts:	40,007	148,016	115
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	52.7	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	8.1	0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

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