COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 11

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Wheat

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (8,747 contracts) with Wheat (1,480 contracts) and Cotton (238 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-33,676 contracts), Live Cattle (-9,035 contracts), Soybeans (-6,595 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,998 contracts), Corn (-2,036 contracts), Cocoa (-829 contracts), Coffee (-267 contracts) and with Soybean Oil (-197 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (7 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent), Sugar (13 percent), Soybean Oil (14 percent), Corn (14 percent) and Live Cattle (18.0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.5 percent)
Sugar (12.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.8 percent)
Coffee (83.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.6 percent)
Soybeans (7.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (31.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.1 percent)
Live Cattle (18.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (27.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (8.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.0 percent)
Cotton (0.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (40.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.7 percent)
Wheat (42.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.0 percent)

Corn & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (10 percent) and Lean Hogs (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybean Meal (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-16 percent), Cotton (-15 percent) and Soybean Oil (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.3 percent)
Sugar (-10.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.8 percent)
Coffee (-8.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-11.2 percent)
Soybeans (-10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-10.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-27.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.4 percent)
Cotton (-14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.0 percent)
Cocoa (0.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.8 percent)
Wheat (-0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (3.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -154,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	43.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	32.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-154,005	178,071	-24,066
– Gross Longs:	328,996	690,965	146,234
– Gross Shorts:	483,001	512,894	170,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	86.1	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-7.7	-22.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	54.0	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	58.1	7.7
– Net Position:	34,562	-33,023	-1,539
– Gross Longs:	188,878	436,150	60,828
– Gross Shorts:	154,316	469,173	62,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	87.5	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	12.9	-21.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	44.0	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	75.9	2.5
– Net Position:	58,940	-62,278	3,338
– Gross Longs:	72,866	85,835	8,160
– Gross Shorts:	13,926	148,113	4,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.1	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	8.1	7.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -165,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	60.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	38.1	7.0
– Net Position:	-165,723	181,179	-15,456
– Gross Longs:	118,322	489,829	41,443
– Gross Shorts:	284,045	308,650	56,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	93.5	72.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	12.7	-20.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	53.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	45.3	4.8
– Net Position:	-49,363	47,407	1,956
– Gross Longs:	122,456	300,924	28,595
– Gross Shorts:	171,819	253,517	26,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	86.3	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	10.1	-7.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -33,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	46.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	52.1	6.0
– Net Position:	9,415	-27,706	18,291
– Gross Longs:	110,758	246,538	49,884
– Gross Shorts:	101,343	274,244	31,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	66.7	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.6	26.2	4.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	35.4	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	43.9	14.1
– Net Position:	36,237	-24,267	-11,970
– Gross Longs:	99,758	101,334	28,459
– Gross Shorts:	63,521	125,601	40,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	93.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	22.5	-21.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	39.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.0	26.8	7.8
– Net Position:	-26,488	29,684	-3,196
– Gross Longs:	84,570	94,470	15,656
– Gross Shorts:	111,058	64,786	18,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	95.0	69.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-1.2	-6.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -41,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	49.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	30.8	6.4
– Net Position:	-41,670	42,276	-606
– Gross Longs:	59,448	112,563	14,072
– Gross Shorts:	101,118	70,287	14,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	98.8	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	12.5	12.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	33.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	60.1	4.1
– Net Position:	30,268	-35,738	5,470
– Gross Longs:	51,018	45,333	11,037
– Gross Shorts:	20,750	81,071	5,567
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	56.2	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.9	-8.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	36.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	26.0	8.9
– Net Position:	-38,905	43,517	-4,612
– Gross Longs:	125,365	147,937	31,254
– Gross Shorts:	164,270	104,420	35,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.0	58.1	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.3	3.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (23,283 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,652 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-57,441 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-16,647 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-10,661 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-6,132 contracts) and with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,127 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (93 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (76 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (93.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (68.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (61.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (69.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (62.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (72.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (58.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (75.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (83.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (65.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (44.2 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (37 percent) and the VIX (36 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-9 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (35.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (18.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (14.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (12.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (44.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (36.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (27.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -20,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	45.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	41.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-20,262	18,416	1,846
– Gross Longs:	95,786	182,837	26,785
– Gross Shorts:	116,048	164,421	24,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.9	-40.9	19.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -57,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	70.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	73.2	8.9
– Net Position:	-23,451	-47,518	70,969
– Gross Longs:	285,987	1,441,253	250,900
– Gross Shorts:	309,438	1,488,771	179,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.2	33.3	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	7.0	-15.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	59.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	64.2	13.4
– Net Position:	1,237	-3,784	2,547
– Gross Longs:	18,012	48,794	13,516
– Gross Shorts:	16,775	52,578	10,969
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.3	32.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	7.7	1.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	60.9	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	69.6	11.5
– Net Position:	8,484	-21,221	12,737
– Gross Longs:	49,051	148,524	40,833
– Gross Shorts:	40,567	169,745	28,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	29.2	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-0.0	4.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -13,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	76.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	75.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-13,256	4,580	8,676
– Gross Longs:	65,225	323,855	29,794
– Gross Shorts:	78,481	319,275	21,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.7	23.4	58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.1	-40.0	0.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	60.9	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	59.2	22.3
– Net Position:	-75	223	-148
– Gross Longs:	2,405	8,179	2,846
– Gross Shorts:	2,480	7,956	2,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	28.0	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.6	-21.8	-22.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	90.6	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	82.9	1.5
– Net Position:	-38,102	32,301	5,801
– Gross Longs:	26,554	379,042	11,882
– Gross Shorts:	64,656	346,741	6,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	70.0	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	8.6	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

11 Aug

Speculators sharply pare back Japanese Yen bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (62,106 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,781 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (14,631 contracts), the Swiss Franc (12,447 contracts) and Bitcoin (1,540 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-37,072 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-13,724 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-8,829 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-5,343 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,324 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-822 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply pared back Japanese Yen bearish bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was the large move in the Japanese yen speculator position that took place after last week’s (and the previous Friday) early risk-off trades and volatility spikes.

The Japanese yen speculator contracts saw a huge surge of buying with the yen speculator positioning jumping by over +62,000 contracts on the week. This was the highest one-week gain since March 1st of 2011 when the yen rose by +69,020 contracts. The turnaround in yen positions coincided with an enormous volatility event that shook the financial markets with many focusing the risk-off behavior on an unwind of yen carry trades – where traders sell a low-yielding asset like the yen to invest in a higher yielding like the USD to pocket the interest rate difference.

The yen buying and paring of shorts brought the overall speculator standing to just -11,354 contracts through Tuesday. This puts the speculator positioning back to an almost neutral position after the standing had been at least -100,000 contracts for twenty-four straight weeks from February 13th through two weeks ago on July 23rd. Overall, the yen positioning has now continued to remain in a bearish position for 178 consecutive weeks, dating back to March 16th of 2021.

This possibly could be coming to an end as a change in policy by the Bank of Japan and an unwinding of the carry trade may bring some yen strength back into the market or at least dampen the one-way market action. The yen had lost approximately 50 percent of its value against the US Dollar in the past three years with the USDJPY currency pair reaching multi-decade highs above 162.00 before the latest selloff and unwind of the yen short positioning.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and Bitcoin (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Mexican Peso (64 percent) and the Australian Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (40.2 percent)
EuroFX (34.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (69.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (86.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (64.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (19.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (64.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.0 percent)
Bitcoin (74.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (94 percent) and the Swiss Franc (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (18 percent), the Bitcoin (17 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-83 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-31 percent), Canadian Dollar (-27 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (94.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (43.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (5.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-21.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-83.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-61.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-30.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.3 percent)
Bitcoin (17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-4.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.8	17.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	55.5	7.1
– Net Position:	16,136	-15,827	-309
– Gross Longs:	30,996	7,502	2,667
– Gross Shorts:	14,860	23,329	2,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	67.3	7.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	7.5	-25.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	57.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	66.2	7.5
– Net Position:	33,580	-57,860	24,280
– Gross Longs:	185,799	386,568	74,618
– Gross Shorts:	152,219	444,428	50,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	67.5	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-18.0	13.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -37,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	26.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.4	11.8
– Net Position:	74,399	-81,080	6,681
– Gross Longs:	126,080	58,800	33,006
– Gross Shorts:	51,681	139,880	26,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.1	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.3	12.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 62,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	64.2	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	60.1	11.4
– Net Position:	-11,354	12,196	-842
– Gross Longs:	66,169	191,829	33,312
– Gross Shorts:	77,523	179,633	34,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	94.0	-93.0	22.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	68.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.2	26.0	26.8
– Net Position:	-22,073	29,131	-7,058
– Gross Longs:	9,570	46,960	11,309
– Gross Shorts:	31,643	17,829	18,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	47.0	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-32.9	32.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -181,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -196,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	81.8	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.8	26.5	10.5
– Net Position:	-181,632	185,438	-3,806
– Gross Longs:	21,993	274,249	31,460
– Gross Shorts:	203,625	88,811	35,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	92.5	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.3	0.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	50.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	27.1	14.1
– Net Position:	-40,199	44,743	-4,544
– Gross Longs:	68,193	97,019	22,601
– Gross Shorts:	108,392	52,276	27,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	49.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	17.5	-23.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	68.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.4	42.2	8.1
– Net Position:	-16,751	19,140	-2,389
– Gross Longs:	19,843	50,442	3,611
– Gross Shorts:	36,594	31,302	6,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	90.6	25.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-83.4	85.4	-46.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	45.6	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	79.2	2.7
– Net Position:	65,336	-64,007	-1,329
– Gross Longs:	96,916	86,813	3,812
– Gross Shorts:	31,580	150,820	5,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	38.4	2.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-2.4	-15.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	71.8	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.4	12.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-54,883	54,127	756
– Gross Longs:	21,986	65,437	3,508
– Gross Shorts:	76,869	11,310	2,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	5.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	28.7	17.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	87.0	2.1	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.0	4.7	3.6
– Net Position:	538	-719	181
– Gross Longs:	23,954	579	1,164
– Gross Shorts:	23,416	1,298	983
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.5	46.4	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-24.4	-4.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Japanese Yen, Natural Gas & Silver lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as a volatility spike helped turnaround this currency. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 94.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -11,354 net contracts this week with a huge gain of 62,106 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Natural Gas speculator level is now at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 17.6 this week. The speculator position registered -66,340 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 16,797 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 83.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -9.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 49,081 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 20 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 83.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 59,207 net contracts this week with a dip of -3,809 contracts in the speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level sits at a 83.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 33.6 this week.

The speculator position was -2,595 net contracts this week with a boost of 31,390 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,688,076 net contracts this week with a drop of -32,038 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.9 this week. The speculator position was -54,883 net contracts this week with a decrease of -13,724 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -41,908 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,567 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.4 this week. The speculator position was 11,587 net contracts this week with a drop of -11,469 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -13,244 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -153 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was the Silver market with a small gain of just 20 contracts.

Meanwhile, the markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-7,852 contracts), Copper (-4,877 contracts), Platinum (-4,023 contracts), Steel (-22 contracts) and with Palladium (-153 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (84 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (80.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (83.5 percent)
Silver (83.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.8 percent)
Copper (51.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.0 percent)
Platinum (45.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (56.2 percent)
Palladium (4.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (73.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.9 percent)

Steel tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (0.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only market with a positive level in the latest trends data.

Copper (-28 percent) and Platinum (-28 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.5 percent)
Silver (-9.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-3.8 percent)
Copper (-28.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-26.2 percent)
Platinum (-27.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-4.1 percent)
Palladium (-2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 238,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	18.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	74.4	4.4
– Net Position:	238,749	-269,034	30,285
– Gross Longs:	298,119	88,442	51,205
– Gross Shorts:	59,370	357,476	20,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.1	16.3	80.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	1.0	18.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	23.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	70.4	6.9
– Net Position:	49,081	-69,631	20,550
– Gross Longs:	64,574	34,304	30,694
– Gross Shorts:	15,493	103,935	10,144
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.8	16.9	70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	12.3	-20.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	34.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	46.0	4.7
– Net Position:	19,598	-28,281	8,683
– Gross Longs:	88,598	86,315	20,395
– Gross Shorts:	69,000	114,596	11,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	46.1	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	29.5	-22.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	24.2	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	43.8	4.8
– Net Position:	10,291	-15,925	5,634
– Gross Longs:	44,391	19,658	9,567
– Gross Shorts:	34,100	35,583	3,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	49.1	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	30.5	-19.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -153 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	47.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.2	8.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-13,244	12,083	1,161
– Gross Longs:	9,677	14,622	2,700
– Gross Shorts:	22,921	2,539	1,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	90.7	89.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-0.4	19.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,898 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -22 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	79.8	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	51.0	1.4
– Net Position:	-5,898	5,991	-93
– Gross Longs:	2,007	16,615	203
– Gross Shorts:	7,905	10,624	296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	27.4	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	0.0	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

10 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (188,386 contracts) with the Fed Funds (130,472 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (40,384 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-53,266 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-47,738 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-32,038 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-11,936 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-1,539 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (23.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (63.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (79.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (69.5 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (29 percent) and the Fed Funds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-13.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-33.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-2.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-30.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (19.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 367,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 188,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	55.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	58.8	0.4
– Net Position:	367,148	-363,366	-3,782
– Gross Longs:	1,802,125	5,707,451	32,720
– Gross Shorts:	1,434,977	6,070,817	36,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	20.8	85.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-29.1	-0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 130,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -211,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	71.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	66.3	2.3
– Net Position:	-80,844	92,469	-11,625
– Gross Longs:	192,047	1,202,589	26,862
– Gross Shorts:	272,891	1,110,120	38,487
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.6	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-9.3	-30.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,103,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	75.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	54.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,105,211	934,125	171,086
– Gross Longs:	716,311	3,346,171	293,877
– Gross Shorts:	1,821,522	2,412,046	122,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	70.9	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-12.7	6.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,688,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -32,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,656,038 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	82.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	61.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,688,076	1,437,325	250,751
– Gross Longs:	578,521	5,469,735	485,210
– Gross Shorts:	2,266,597	4,032,410	234,459
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	8.9	14.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -776,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -47,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -728,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	65.7	6.7
– Net Position:	-776,208	638,673	137,535
– Gross Longs:	441,721	3,848,733	464,829
– Gross Shorts:	1,217,929	3,210,060	327,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	75.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.6	47.5	20.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -164,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -53,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.6	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	66.9	11.7
– Net Position:	-164,257	185,201	-20,944
– Gross Longs:	258,600	1,603,637	226,243
– Gross Shorts:	422,857	1,418,436	247,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	55.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-8.4	24.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -57,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	66.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	68.3	7.9
– Net Position:	-57,855	-36,172	94,027
– Gross Longs:	339,271	1,169,182	233,863
– Gross Shorts:	397,126	1,205,354	139,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	14.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	-4.7	16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -376,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 40,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -417,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	79.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	58.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-376,662	357,685	18,977
– Gross Longs:	159,683	1,330,555	174,995
– Gross Shorts:	536,345	972,870	156,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	70.1	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	5.4	-2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

10 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (60,473 contracts) with Soybeans (8,772 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,397 contracts), Wheat (2,873 contracts) and Lean Hogs (705 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-14,702 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,288 contracts), Sugar (-10,664 contracts), Cotton (-4,567 contracts), Coffee (-3,809 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,773 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (9 percent), Sugar (10 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Soybean Oil (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.8 percent)
Sugar (9.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (83.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (6.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.9 percent)
Live Cattle (27.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.4 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.8 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.5 percent)
Wheat (39.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.5 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Lean Hogs (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (3 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-11 percent), Coffee (-11 percent) and Soybeans (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.3 percent)
Sugar (-3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.4 percent)
Soybeans (-11.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-26.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cotton (-11.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.9 percent)
Cocoa (1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.9 percent)
Wheat (2.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -151,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 60,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -212,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	44.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	33.7	10.7
– Net Position:	-151,969	173,479	-21,510
– Gross Longs:	320,403	705,379	147,095
– Gross Shorts:	472,372	531,900	168,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	85.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-2.7	3.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	55.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	57.7	8.2
– Net Position:	25,815	-20,274	-5,541
– Gross Longs:	186,989	443,364	60,431
– Gross Shorts:	161,174	463,638	65,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	6.2	-15.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	41.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	67.0	2.4
– Net Position:	59,207	-61,771	2,564
– Gross Longs:	72,262	101,059	8,330
– Gross Shorts:	13,055	162,830	5,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.6	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.6	-6.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -159,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	61.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	39.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-159,128	173,211	-14,083
– Gross Longs:	111,259	484,227	41,958
– Gross Shorts:	270,387	311,016	56,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	91.6	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	13.6	-18.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	53.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	44.9	4.8
– Net Position:	-49,166	45,285	3,881
– Gross Longs:	115,500	292,565	30,057
– Gross Shorts:	164,666	247,280	26,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	85.3	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-14.7	12.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	43.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.0	5.6
– Net Position:	43,091	-61,351	18,260
– Gross Longs:	125,998	223,119	47,203
– Gross Shorts:	82,907	284,470	28,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	53.4	37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	15.9	30.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	32.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	44.1	14.1
– Net Position:	45,272	-33,544	-11,728
– Gross Longs:	108,655	94,052	28,946
– Gross Shorts:	63,383	127,596	40,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	81.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	8.6	-19.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	39.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	29.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-21,490	25,276	-3,786
– Gross Longs:	87,503	95,087	14,748
– Gross Shorts:	108,993	69,811	18,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	90.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-2.5	-11.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	50.8	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	31.2	6.5
– Net Position:	-41,908	44,447	-2,539
– Gross Longs:	60,131	115,178	12,254
– Gross Shorts:	102,039	70,731	14,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.5	-4.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	62.5	4.3
– Net Position:	31,097	-37,073	5,976
– Gross Longs:	49,602	48,710	11,944
– Gross Shorts:	18,505	85,783	5,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	54.9	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-1.7	-0.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	28.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-40,385	46,947	-6,562
– Gross Longs:	122,142	167,818	30,313
– Gross Shorts:	162,527	120,871	36,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	61.6	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	0.3	-22.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & S&P 500

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & S&P 500

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (31,390 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (22,034 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (10,189 contracts), the VIX (6,108 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (2,136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,360 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-6,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (83 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (70 percent) and VIX (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (83.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (65.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (27 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (27.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (11.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	51.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	38.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-43,545	55,847	-12,302
– Gross Longs:	99,536	231,326	28,694
– Gross Shorts:	143,081	175,479	40,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	40.9	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-8.5	-48.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	69.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	75.3	8.2
– Net Position:	33,990	-118,575	84,585
– Gross Longs:	326,376	1,407,615	250,827
– Gross Shorts:	292,386	1,526,190	166,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	23.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-10.0	-10.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	57.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.1	14.7
– Net Position:	7,369	-7,321	-48
– Gross Longs:	21,484	48,536	12,361
– Gross Shorts:	14,115	55,857	12,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	27.6	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-8.7	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	60.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	72.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,611	-31,501	18,890
– Gross Longs:	50,888	149,544	43,363
– Gross Shorts:	38,277	181,045	24,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	18.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-14.5	15.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	76.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-2,595	-6,502	9,097
– Gross Longs:	70,303	320,588	30,609
– Gross Shorts:	72,898	327,090	21,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-32.2	9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	63.0	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	56.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-1,727	889	838
– Gross Longs:	1,625	8,358	3,278
– Gross Shorts:	3,352	7,469	2,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	32.7	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-21.1	-2.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	86.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-21,455	15,280	6,175
– Gross Longs:	31,139	378,833	10,919
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	363,553	4,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	52.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-2.7	-3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

04 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Coffee, GBP, Gasoline, Cotton & CAD lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 30th.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 87.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -4.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,016 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,484 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The British Pound speculator level is now at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 28.7 this week. The speculator position registered 111,471 net contracts this week with a weekly drop of -30,712 contracts in speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 83.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 49,061 net contracts this week with a reduction by -2,319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 83.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 1.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 246,601 net contracts this week with a drop by -26,473 contracts in the speculator bets.

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 82.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 19.5 this week.

The speculator position was 13,538 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 23,056 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,827 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.0 this week. The speculator position was -37,341 net contracts this week with a decrease by -3,070 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,656,038 net contracts this week with a slide by -132,777 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.7 this week. The speculator position was -196,263 net contracts this week with a decrease of -34,660 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

Finally, the Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 3.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.5 this week. The speculator position was -41,159 net contracts this week with an increase of 839 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

20 Jul

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to Record High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by British Pound & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (48,212 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (30,961 contracts), the EuroFX (21,126 contracts), the Australian Dollar (8,700 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (2,342 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-21,261 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-13,351 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,705 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,613 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,842 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-461 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound bets to Record High

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the new record high bullish sentiment in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling.

Large speculative Sterling positions jumped this week by +48,212 contracts following last week’s rise by +22,649 contracts and the previous week’s (two weeks ago) gain by +17,993 contracts. This week’s rise by over +48,000 contracts is the largest one-week increase on record and pushed the overall net speculator standing to +132,902 contracts – a new all-time record bullish position. This new high level surpasses the previous record high of +98,366 contracts that was recorded on July 17th of 2007.

The GBP position has now gained by +152,977 contracts in just the past nine weeks, going from a bearish level of -20,075 contracts on May 14th to a new record high level this week to complete an incredible sentiment turnaround in a short period of time.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate (GBPUSD currency pair) against the US Dollar has been on the move higher and touched above the 1.3000 level this week for the first time in almost exactly a year. Helping the GBP strength is the outlook that the Bank of England will take longer to cut their interest rate due to sticky inflation while the US Federal Reserve is forecast-ed to start cutting rates this year and the Eurozone is possibly going to reduce their rate again in September.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (65 percent), Mexican Peso (62 percent) and Bitcoin (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.6 percent)
EuroFX (30.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (77.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (1.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (92.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (65.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (90.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.9 percent)
Bitcoin (57.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.6 percent)

Australian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (53 percent) and the British Pound (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (29 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-27 percent), Canadian Dollar (-23 percent) and the EuroFX (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (25.7 percent)
EuroFX (-18.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-23.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (27.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-15.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-6.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (52.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (45.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (-30.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-28.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-27.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-6.4 percent)
Bitcoin (8.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (9.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.5	9.6	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	59.4	6.2
– Net Position:	18,550	-19,278	728
– Gross Longs:	30,327	3,695	3,141
– Gross Shorts:	11,777	22,973	2,413
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	60.0	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-27.6	-6.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 21,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	57.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	65.4	7.6
– Net Position:	24,749	-49,549	24,800
– Gross Longs:	179,937	375,217	74,281
– Gross Shorts:	155,188	424,766	49,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	70.7	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	18.4	-13.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 132,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 48,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.3	18.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	71.2	8.5
– Net Position:	132,902	-149,118	16,216
– Gross Longs:	183,287	50,803	40,067
– Gross Shorts:	50,385	199,921	23,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.1	-40.8	22.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -151,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 30,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	70.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.6	18.5	14.9
– Net Position:	-151,072	159,089	-8,017
– Gross Longs:	47,356	216,042	37,613
– Gross Shorts:	198,428	56,953	45,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	80.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	16.5	-32.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	82.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	19.8	22.5
– Net Position:	-49,793	61,672	-11,879
– Gross Longs:	6,491	81,219	10,344
– Gross Shorts:	56,284	19,547	22,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	7.7	-3.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -132,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	78.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.0	29.0	12.1
– Net Position:	-132,473	137,579	-5,106
– Gross Longs:	24,734	219,027	29,000
– Gross Shorts:	157,207	81,448	34,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	89.5	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	19.1	9.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	36.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.5	48.9	7.6
– Net Position:	11,113	-27,883	16,770
– Gross Longs:	106,312	84,403	34,164
– Gross Shorts:	95,199	112,286	17,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	52.6	-51.4	32.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 12,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	51.8	8.4
– Net Position:	12,561	-12,102	-459
– Gross Longs:	34,473	19,484	4,648
– Gross Shorts:	21,912	31,586	5,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	33.4	52.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-8.1	-12.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	46.5	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	79.0	1.7
– Net Position:	61,710	-64,182	2,472
– Gross Longs:	98,495	91,866	5,742
– Gross Shorts:	36,785	156,048	3,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	38.3	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.9	30.2	-1.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	72.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	21.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-44,526	44,720	-194
– Gross Longs:	21,140	63,287	2,240
– Gross Shorts:	65,666	18,567	2,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.0	25.3	10.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.2	3.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.1	2.9	3.4
– Net Position:	-579	181	398
– Gross Longs:	24,710	1,091	1,463
– Gross Shorts:	25,289	910	1,065
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	69.3	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-4.7	-8.1

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