COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 10

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (98,926 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (72,768 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-63,807 contracts), the Fed Funds (-42,736 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,610 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-20,348 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-19,812 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,423 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (93 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (48 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (45 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (31 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (22.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (44.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (37.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (48.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (57.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (33.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (33.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (31.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (26.0 percent)

10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-0.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-12.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-13.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-8.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (28.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-34.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-33.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (9.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (3.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -52,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -42,736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	63.5	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	61.8	1.5
– Net Position:	-52,710	36,521	16,189
– Gross Longs:	333,368	1,371,362	47,669
– Gross Shorts:	386,078	1,334,841	31,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	48.7	83.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-7.0	15.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -563,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 98,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -662,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	61.1	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.9	0.6
– Net Position:	-563,811	578,846	-15,035
– Gross Longs:	1,274,796	6,730,015	55,134
– Gross Shorts:	1,838,607	6,151,169	70,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	69.5	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.8	-5.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -144,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,203 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	64.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	54.3	0.1
– Net Position:	-144,015	139,503	4,512
– Gross Longs:	206,962	908,630	5,408
– Gross Shorts:	350,977	769,127	896
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	6.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	65.8	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	37.0	-23.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,230,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -63,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,166,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	77.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	50.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,230,204	1,105,559	124,645
– Gross Longs:	621,378	3,219,037	248,595
– Gross Shorts:	1,851,582	2,113,478	123,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	80.8	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-0.7	4.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,463,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,443,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.4	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.8	3.4
– Net Position:	-2,463,629	2,232,475	231,154
– Gross Longs:	535,479	5,899,749	472,709
– Gross Shorts:	2,999,108	3,667,274	241,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	96.3	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	10.0	22.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -680,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 72,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -752,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	76.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-680,131	583,284	96,847
– Gross Longs:	640,524	3,736,423	444,200
– Gross Shorts:	1,320,655	3,153,139	347,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	50.2	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-27.1	3.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -367,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -347,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	79.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	61.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-367,108	417,015	-49,907
– Gross Longs:	255,143	1,881,625	216,455
– Gross Shorts:	622,251	1,464,610	266,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	92.2	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	22.8	-26.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -101,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,175 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	76.6	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	75.9	8.4
– Net Position:	-101,785	13,618	88,167
– Gross Longs:	155,361	1,358,300	236,647
– Gross Shorts:	257,146	1,344,682	148,480
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	42.9	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	9.9	-8.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -209,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	81.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	71.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-209,526	192,463	17,063
– Gross Longs:	138,996	1,544,513	178,019
– Gross Shorts:	348,522	1,352,050	160,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.6	15.9	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-16.0	-10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

28 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (13,390 contracts) with Cotton (5,439 contracts) and Soybean Oil (157 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-29,353 contracts), Corn (-23,326 contracts), Soybean Meal (-16,876 contracts), Coffee (-4,750 contracts), Cocoa (-4,110 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,477 contracts), Lean Hogs (-1,312 contracts) and with Sugar (-79 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Sugar (0 percent), Corn (18 percent) and the Cotton (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (56.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (72.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (76.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (85.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (18.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.6 percent)
Cocoa (23.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (27.3 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.5 percent)

Wheat & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (37 percent) and Lean Hogs (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-20 percent), Coffee (-14 percent) and Soybean Meal (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-20.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-30.4 percent)
Sugar (-23.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.3 percent)
Coffee (-14.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-2.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-5.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (44.4 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-16.1 percent)
Cocoa (-8.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.1 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -130,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	46.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	36.9	11.2
– Net Position:	-130,570	143,528	-12,958
– Gross Longs:	289,305	710,288	158,516
– Gross Shorts:	419,875	566,760	171,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.9	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	19.8	21.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -47,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -79 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	53.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	47.3	9.0
– Net Position:	-47,220	51,407	-4,187
– Gross Longs:	201,571	458,220	72,992
– Gross Shorts:	248,791	406,813	77,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.3	21.4	-9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	42.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	64.7	4.3
– Net Position:	31,154	-32,779	1,625
– Gross Longs:	45,467	62,584	7,984
– Gross Shorts:	14,313	95,363	6,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	45.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	14.9	-11.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -29,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	49.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	54.9	7.4
– Net Position:	55,870	-42,557	-13,313
– Gross Longs:	190,265	417,621	48,705
– Gross Shorts:	134,395	460,178	62,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	32.6	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.5	-0.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	47.3	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	59.7	4.7
– Net Position:	63,489	-73,522	10,033
– Gross Longs:	134,185	281,052	37,716
– Gross Shorts:	70,696	354,574	27,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.9	24.1	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	5.3	2.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -76,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	51.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	43.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-76,064	51,927	24,137
– Gross Longs:	109,147	324,325	60,487
– Gross Shorts:	185,211	272,398	36,350
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.3	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	7.6	32.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 106,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	28.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	50.9	13.2
– Net Position:	106,183	-86,980	-19,203
– Gross Longs:	190,895	110,015	31,781
– Gross Shorts:	84,712	196,995	50,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	1.0	12.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 94,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	26.0	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	49.3	8.4
– Net Position:	94,956	-87,562	-7,394
– Gross Longs:	170,370	97,654	24,195
– Gross Shorts:	75,414	185,216	31,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.0	1.4	33.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.4	-35.1	-28.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	46.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	30.8	6.1
– Net Position:	-31,047	32,063	-1,016
– Gross Longs:	67,277	95,211	11,433
– Gross Shorts:	98,324	63,148	12,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	83.1	15.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	7.1	8.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	38.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	58.0	7.0
– Net Position:	12,905	-17,330	4,425
– Gross Longs:	27,510	33,815	10,574
– Gross Shorts:	14,605	51,145	6,149
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	76.2	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	9.9	-19.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -71,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	40.6	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	20.2	9.4
– Net Position:	-71,192	75,830	-4,638
– Gross Longs:	96,882	151,403	30,543
– Gross Shorts:	168,074	75,573	35,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	67.2	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-32.8	-57.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Jun

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Levels show where open contracts are in the markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (16,419 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (15,303 contracts), the EuroFX (10,261 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,508 contracts), the Swiss Franc (4,798 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,439 contracts), the US Dollar Index (785 contracts) and also Bitcoin (303 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,789 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-6,554 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,723 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

Currency Data Highlights this week include the Euro and the British pound sterling seeing stronger speculator positioning that has pushed the overall net positions to multi-month highs.

Euro FX Positions rise to 40-week high
– Euro positions rose by over 10,000 contracts this week, marking the fourth increase in the last six weeks.
– Speculators’ Euro positions have risen for 13 out of the last 17 weeks, totaling a change of +157,450 contracts over that time-frame.
– The Euro positions have increased from negative contracts in mid-February to over 93,000 contracts this week, the highest level for Euro speculators since September 3, 2024, when the net position was over 100,000 contracts.

British Pound Sterling
– British Pound Sterling contracts jumped by over 16,000 positions this week.
– Speculator bets on the Pound Sterling have risen in 5 out of the last 8 weeks, totaling over +45,000 contracts in that period.
– The Pound Sterling speculator position is currently at its highest level since November with the current standing above the 50,000 contract level.

Canadian Dollar
– Canadian Dollar speculator bets increased by over 15,000 contracts this week.
– The overall standing for the Canadian Dollar, however, remains bearish at -93,140 contracts level.

Japanese Yen
– The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over 6,000 contracts this week as yen speculator bets have been cooling off.
– The Yen position has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks after reaching an all-time high in April above +179,000 contracts.

Swiss Franc
– Swiss Franc contracts rose by almost 5,000 contracts this week.
– Over the last 10 weeks, Swiss Franc positions have improved in 7 out of the last 10 weeks, reducing the overall bearish level by almost half (from approximately -42,000 to -21,000 contracts).

U.S. Dollar Index
– The U.S. Dollar index positions slightly improved this week and have now risen for five straight weeks (following declines in 8 out of previous 11 weeks)
– The current standing is currently still a small, bullish position of just +1,402 net contracts.

Market Price Changes this week:

Currency markets saw the euro and Swiss franc both rise by over 1%. The Mexican peso, Bitcoin, and the Canadian dollar each gained nearly 1%. The Brazilian real, Japanese yen, and British pound all increased by around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar index, however, was the week’s biggest loser, dropping nearly 1%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (90 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (64 percent), Mexican Peso (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (64.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (60.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (90.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.5 percent)
Bitcoin (7.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)

British Pound & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (13 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (6 percent), the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-17 percent), the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-7.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-23.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	24.1	12.1
– Net Position:	1,402	-35	-1,367
– Gross Longs:	17,027	7,344	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	15,625	7,379	3,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	93.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.2	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 93,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	55.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	74.1	5.5
– Net Position:	93,025	-151,256	58,231
– Gross Longs:	208,754	449,157	102,489
– Gross Shorts:	115,729	600,413	44,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	29.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	5.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.4	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	56.7	12.7
– Net Position:	51,634	-60,562	8,928
– Gross Longs:	111,076	60,665	36,199
– Gross Shorts:	59,442	121,227	27,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.8	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.8	6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 144,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	34.0	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	77.6	7.6
– Net Position:	144,595	-169,077	24,482
– Gross Longs:	184,195	132,044	54,124
– Gross Shorts:	39,600	301,121	29,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	8.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	8.3	4.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	62.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	39.7	17.7
– Net Position:	-21,268	19,842	1,426
– Gross Longs:	9,240	54,331	16,806
– Gross Shorts:	30,508	34,489	15,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	31.9	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.8	10.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	77.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	45.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-93,143	91,207	1,936
– Gross Longs:	19,651	223,285	27,489
– Gross Shorts:	112,794	132,078	25,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	52.3	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	6.7	28.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	68.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	40.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-69,944	63,770	6,174
– Gross Longs:	23,997	153,541	26,785
– Gross Shorts:	93,941	89,771	20,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	68.0	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	8.9	13.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	73.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	47.6	5.2
– Net Position:	-21,235	20,783	452
– Gross Longs:	9,312	58,294	4,562
– Gross Shorts:	30,547	37,511	4,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	57.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.6	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.8	31.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.3	1.8
– Net Position:	62,726	-65,910	3,184
– Gross Longs:	99,017	57,439	6,351
– Gross Shorts:	36,291	123,349	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	40.3	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	29.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	39,301	-42,872	3,571
– Gross Longs:	61,321	28,434	4,511
– Gross Shorts:	22,020	71,306	940
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	22.2	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	22.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	7.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.5	1.5	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,009	1,741	268
– Gross Longs:	24,781	2,198	1,529
– Gross Shorts:	26,790	457	1,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	95.4	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	18.4	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Brent Oil, Silver and 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 40 points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,216 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,936 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in tied with Brent at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is also at a 100 percent or maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 21 points this week. The speculator position registered 66,650 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,880 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18 points this week. The overall speculator position was -203,747 net contracts this week with a jump of 24,696 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12 points this week.

The speculator position was 115,175 net contracts this week with a jump of 11,892 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen speculator position rounds out the top five in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese yen speculator level is at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -10 points this week. The overall speculator position was 144,595 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,554 contracts in the speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent or minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,470,920 net contracts this week with a drop by -74,384 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the speculator level is at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40 points this week. The speculator position was -369,282 net contracts this week with a small gain of 2,306 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The SOFR 3-Months speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29 points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,132,456 net contracts this week with a reduction by -202,389 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19 points this week. The speculator position was -19,515 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -15,671 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

Finally, the Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17 points this week. The speculator position was -2,009 net contracts this week with an increase of 303 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Opinions

15 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Bets led higher by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (6,930 contracts) with Silver (5,880 contracts), Copper (2,257 contracts), Palladium (1,485 contracts) and also Steel (666 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a small decline of -424 contracts on the week.

Metals Markets Price Changes:

In the metals market prices, platinum rose strongly with a gain of over 5%. Gold followed with an increase of more than 3.5%, and silver edged up by nearly 1%. Conversely, palladium and copper saw declines of 1% and 1.5%, respectively, while steel dropped significantly by over 6%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Platinum (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Gold (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is above the 3-Year midpoint of 50 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (51.6 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.6 percent)
Copper (57.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.7 percent)
Platinum (79.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.4 percent)
Palladium (60.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (49.7 percent)
Steel (71.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.7 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (40 percent) and Palladium (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (21 percent), Gold (9 percent) and Copper (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.8 percent)
Silver (21.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (20.2 percent)
Copper (6.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-0.6 percent)
Platinum (40.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.0 percent)
Palladium (38.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (26.7 percent)
Steel (-7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -424 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.0	16.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	69.8	4.5
– Net Position:	187,481	-222,718	35,237
– Gross Longs:	245,995	68,432	54,008
– Gross Shorts:	58,514	291,150	18,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	42.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-11.5	28.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	20.0	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	69.2	8.2
– Net Position:	66,650	-85,661	19,011
– Gross Longs:	85,192	34,871	33,366
– Gross Shorts:	18,542	120,532	14,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.0	-18.1	-1.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	29.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	44.4	6.1
– Net Position:	26,351	-30,284	3,933
– Gross Longs:	72,101	61,691	16,679
– Gross Shorts:	45,750	91,975	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	44.3	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-8.8	19.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 26,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.9	16.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	48.2	6.4
– Net Position:	26,979	-31,881	4,902
– Gross Longs:	62,728	16,169	11,302
– Gross Shorts:	35,749	48,050	6,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.5	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-38.2	0.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	39.5	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	16.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-5,808	4,570	1,238
– Gross Longs:	8,124	7,661	2,653
– Gross Shorts:	13,932	3,091	1,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	32.1	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-41.5	14.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	69.6	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	67.4	0.4
– Net Position:	-878	707	171
– Gross Longs:	8,135	22,383	298
– Gross Shorts:	9,013	21,676	127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.0	29.5	57.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	6.4	27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

15 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Fed Funds and Ultra Treasury Bonds lead Speculator Bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (38,246 contracts) with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (24,696 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (22,628 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2,306 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-202,389 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-74,384 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-53,898 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-36,591 contracts) and with the 10-Year Bonds (-18,845 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Price Changes:

– US Treasury Long bonds: up over 1%
– 10-year bond: up just under 1%
– 5-year bond: up 0.5%
– 2-year bond: up 0.25%
– Fed bonds and shorter duration bonds: basically unchanged

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (97 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (56 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (34.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (27.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (24.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (55.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (96.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (50.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (63.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.2 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (18 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-41 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-24.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-7.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-40.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-55.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-13.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (14.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-29.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-26.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 38,246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -144,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	67.7	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	62.2	2.1
– Net Position:	-106,475	93,223	13,252
– Gross Longs:	230,849	1,149,922	49,699
– Gross Shorts:	337,324	1,056,699	36,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.9	59.0	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	0.1	-2.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,132,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -202,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -930,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	63.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	53.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-1,132,456	1,118,673	13,783
– Gross Longs:	1,291,149	7,445,466	51,781
– Gross Shorts:	2,423,605	6,326,793	37,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	97.5	91.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	28.6	7.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -74,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -53,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	61.5	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	54.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-74,749	78,663	-3,914
– Gross Longs:	186,662	725,834	1,456
– Gross Shorts:	261,411	647,171	5,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.9	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	14.0	-3.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,180,516 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -36,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,143,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	77.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	51.1	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,180,516	1,050,501	130,015
– Gross Longs:	585,398	3,073,993	242,461
– Gross Shorts:	1,765,914	2,023,492	112,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	76.2	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-1.9	-1.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,470,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -74,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,396,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	85.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	51.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,470,920	2,303,366	167,554
– Gross Longs:	416,395	5,797,061	414,640
– Gross Shorts:	2,887,315	3,493,695	247,086
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	80.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	11.1	-10.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -724,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -705,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	77.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	63.9	7.5
– Net Position:	-724,101	645,726	78,375
– Gross Longs:	541,692	3,667,589	431,976
– Gross Shorts:	1,265,793	3,021,863	353,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	57.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-8.6	-21.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -369,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	79.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	61.2	11.6
– Net Position:	-369,282	416,219	-46,937
– Gross Longs:	238,872	1,840,747	223,564
– Gross Shorts:	608,154	1,424,528	270,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	92.0	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.5	51.2	-21.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -79,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 22,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	75.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	76.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-79,745	-9,503	89,248
– Gross Longs:	177,328	1,304,982	229,114
– Gross Shorts:	257,073	1,314,485	139,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	36.2	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-0.5	-3.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -203,747 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	82.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	71.0	9.3
– Net Position:	-203,747	213,290	-9,543
– Gross Longs:	136,921	1,562,597	167,180
– Gross Shorts:	340,668	1,349,307	176,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	23.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-1.7	-46.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

15 Jun

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Lean Hogs & Live Cattle lead Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,426 contracts) with Live Cattle (11,892 contracts), Soybeans (10,449 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,403 contracts), Wheat (3,211 contracts) and Coffee (2,289 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-15,671 contracts), Corn (-14,435 contracts), Cotton (-4,430 contracts), Soybean Oil (-685 contracts) and with Cocoa (-232 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Price changes for the week:

– Soybean oil: up almost 6%
– Soybeans: higher by almost 2%
– Lean hogs: rose 1.4%
– Soybean meal: up 1%
– Coffee: down almost 4%
– Cocoa: down almost 3.5%
– Sugar, live cattle, wheat, corn: down over 1%
– Cotton: down almost half a percent

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (92 percent) and Lean Hogs (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Coffee (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (4 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and the Wheat (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (23.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.2 percent)
Sugar (4.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.4 percent)
Coffee (62.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (65.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.0 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (89.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.3 percent)
Cotton (15.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.2 percent)
Cocoa (29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (17.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.3 percent)

Lean Hogs & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Wheat (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (12 percent), Soybeans (3 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Corn (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Soybean Oil (-16 percent) and Cotton (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-36.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-41.0 percent)
Sugar (-18.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybeans (2.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.7 percent)
Live Cattle (11.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-15.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.4 percent)
Cocoa (1.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.0 percent)
Wheat (16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -95,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,435 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	45.9	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	38.8	10.7
– Net Position:	-95,494	114,551	-19,057
– Gross Longs:	321,967	740,542	153,928
– Gross Shorts:	417,461	625,991	172,985
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	74.5	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	36.9	32.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	51.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	48.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-19,515	26,368	-6,853
– Gross Longs:	217,346	464,706	71,741
– Gross Shorts:	236,861	438,338	78,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.7	11.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	16.5	-3.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	40.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	66.0	4.3
– Net Position:	37,306	-39,846	2,540
– Gross Longs:	48,931	65,047	9,338
– Gross Shorts:	11,625	104,893	6,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	38.9	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.8	-6.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,396 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	48.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	55.2	7.5
– Net Position:	70,396	-58,118	-12,278
– Gross Longs:	190,383	415,951	52,035
– Gross Shorts:	119,987	474,069	64,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	28.4	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-5.2	21.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 41,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	49.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	57.9	4.6
– Net Position:	41,254	-47,032	5,778
– Gross Longs:	122,719	289,840	32,315
– Gross Shorts:	81,465	336,872	26,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	37.6	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	17.2	-24.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	49.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	45.2	5.6
– Net Position:	-48,116	26,910	21,206
– Gross Longs:	119,357	301,664	55,209
– Gross Shorts:	167,473	274,754	34,003
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	88.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-3.4	16.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 115,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	27.0	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	51.4	13.8
– Net Position:	115,175	-94,472	-20,703
– Gross Longs:	198,415	104,793	32,758
– Gross Shorts:	83,240	199,265	53,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	7.3	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.1	-1.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 80,002 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,426 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	27.4	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	48.2	8.3
– Net Position:	80,002	-75,715	-4,287
– Gross Longs:	154,806	99,967	26,019
– Gross Shorts:	74,804	175,682	30,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	6.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.9	-35.1	-23.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	48.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	32.3	5.9
– Net Position:	-36,670	36,928	-258
– Gross Longs:	63,049	111,610	13,415
– Gross Shorts:	99,719	74,682	13,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	85.8	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	12.9	17.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	36.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	62.0	5.7
– Net Position:	19,238	-25,428	6,190
– Gross Longs:	32,877	36,613	11,881
– Gross Shorts:	13,639	62,041	5,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	67.9	84.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-3.8	20.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -93,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	38.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	17.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-93,863	93,573	290
– Gross Longs:	108,768	168,704	37,049
– Gross Shorts:	202,631	75,131	36,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	85.2	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-12.5	-38.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

08 Jun

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (3,290 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,047 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (712 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (703 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-16,046 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-12,863 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,548 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,975 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-583 contracts), the British Pound (-164 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-38 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bets see slight rebound back into Bullish Level

Highlighting the Currency Speculator data this week, was a bounce back into bullish territory for the U.S. Dollar Index. This week’s data marks the first bullish level in the past seven weeks as speculators have now advanced their weekly bullish bets modestly for a fourth straight week.

The U.S. Dollar has been on the defensive against most of the other major currencies this year and the Dollar Index price has fallen under the significant psychological level of 100.00 for the first time since July of 2023. The U.S. Dollar is currently down approximately 10% since the beginning of the new year coinciding with a dip in speculator sentiment as well.

Roundup: Currency Speculator Positioning

Japanese Yen: – Speculators pulled back somewhat sharply in the latest data (-12,863 contracts). The yen continues to have an extreme bullish strength score with the speculator position near the top of its range of over +151,000 net contracts.
Brazilian Real: – Speculators dropped their bullish bets also relatively sharply in the latest data. The BRL is coming off of a record high speculator position in the past couple of months.
Euro: – The 2nd most bullish currency (after the yen) with a net position of over 80,000 contracts. The Euro has advanced by over 11% this year and the price trend has been mostly consolidating between the 1.12 – 1.15 area in recent weeks.
Mexican Peso: – The Peso continues to be in a bullish position, near +65,000 contracts after a gain of 3,000 contracts this week.
British Pound Sterling: Rounds out the bullish currencies with a +35,000 net speculator contract position. The GBP has gained by over 10% this year and is now trading at the highest level since 2022 above 1.3500.
Swiss Franc: The CHF remains in a bearish net position despite the strength of its currency which has risen over 10% this year. The CHF trades near the highest levels since 2015.
New Zealand and Australian Dollars: – These currencies continue to have negative net speculator positions, although both currencies have seen their prices on the uptrend since the beginning of the new year.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance:

– The Brazilian Real rose by over 2.35% in the past 5 days.
– The Mexican Peso was up by 1.5%.
– The Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar, the Euro, the British Pound, the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar all were higher by less than 1%.
– The US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged with a small decline on the week.
– Bitcoin was also virtually unchanged, while the Japanese Yen fell by -0.5%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (92 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the EuroFX (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Bitcoin (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (37 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (8.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.5 percent)
EuroFX (60.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (92.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (95.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (37.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (60.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.6 percent)
Bitcoin (0.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.7 percent)

Mexican Peso, GBP & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (12 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-33 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Brazilian Real (-15 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (6.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (7.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-7.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-6.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-15.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-32.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-62.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.2	28.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	25.2	13.2
– Net Position:	617	968	-1,585
– Gross Longs:	15,748	8,021	2,123
– Gross Shorts:	15,131	7,053	3,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	96.0	8.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-2.0	-7.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	56.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	73.7	5.8
– Net Position:	82,764	-138,285	55,521
– Gross Longs:	202,786	437,677	100,625
– Gross Shorts:	120,022	575,962	45,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	34.1	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.9	5.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -164 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	31.9	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.9	9.9
– Net Position:	35,215	-48,965	13,750
– Gross Longs:	103,672	74,588	36,963
– Gross Shorts:	68,457	123,553	23,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.1	43.6	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.0	-9.7	18.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 151,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	27.4	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	75.3	5.5
– Net Position:	151,149	-175,508	24,359
– Gross Longs:	189,514	100,151	44,497
– Gross Shorts:	38,365	275,659	20,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	6.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.4	2.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	63.8	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	32.0	18.7
– Net Position:	-26,066	25,884	182
– Gross Longs:	7,145	51,879	15,409
– Gross Shorts:	33,211	25,995	15,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	41.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-1.4	6.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	38.5	9.7
– Net Position:	-108,446	110,625	-2,179
– Gross Longs:	18,667	214,704	23,967
– Gross Shorts:	127,113	104,079	26,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	60.5	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	15.9	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -63,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	64.5	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	34.3	10.5
– Net Position:	-63,155	61,195	1,960
– Gross Longs:	23,969	130,735	23,307
– Gross Shorts:	87,124	69,540	21,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.4	-5.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,674 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	41.1	6.4
– Net Position:	-23,674	23,601	73
– Gross Longs:	9,531	51,514	4,419
– Gross Shorts:	33,205	27,913	4,346
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	60.7	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-4.3	8.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 64,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	32.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	72.4	2.1
– Net Position:	64,449	-66,946	2,497
– Gross Longs:	93,401	55,198	6,108
– Gross Shorts:	28,952	122,144	3,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	39.8	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.6	7.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,793 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.3	30.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	70.6	1.0
– Net Position:	30,793	-33,919	3,126
– Gross Longs:	54,954	26,403	4,014
– Gross Shorts:	24,161	60,322	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	29.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.5	14.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.9	8.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.7	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,312	1,949	363
– Gross Longs:	24,084	2,407	1,341
– Gross Shorts:	26,396	458	978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	5.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	100.0	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	29.8	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Brent, Silver, Ultra 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 3rd.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Brent speculator level is currently at a 100 percent maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 37 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 10,280 net contracts this week with a gain of 14,712 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225* speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nikkei 225 speculator level is now at a 96 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 35 points at last data. The speculator position registered 1,904 net contracts with a recent weekly change of 2,025 contracts in speculator bets.

* Note: The Nikkei 225 (USD) has not been updated by the CFTC recently – likely due to lack of open interest. The Nikkei 225 levels on the charts this week reflect the last provided data. We will look to swap in the Nikkei 225 Yen contracts in future updates which has a higher open interest.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level now resides at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 20 points this week while the overall speculator position was 60,770 net contracts this week with a boost by 7,758 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position has cooled off a bit but does come in at number four in the extreme standings this week. The JPY speculator level is at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decline of -7 points this week. The overall speculator position was 151,149 net contracts this week with a shortfall by -12,863 contracts in the speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level now sits at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a gain of 18 points this week.

The speculator position was 2,201 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,337 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56 points this week. The overall speculator position was -371,588 net contracts this week with a reduction by -73,325 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9 points this week while the speculator position was -2,396,536 net contracts this week with a change of -63,299 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33 points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,312 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -10 points this week. The speculator position was -54,519 net contracts this week with a decrease by -5,366 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Finally, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain by 3 points this week. The speculator position was 617 net contracts this week with an advance by 703 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

08 Jun

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,721 contracts) with Silver (7,758 contracts), Copper (1,513 contracts) and Palladium (233 contracts) having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,294 contracts) and with Steel (-1,279 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold bets rose this week for the third straight this week after having fallen in the previous four weeks. Currently, the gold speculator bets are up to their highest level in the past seven weeks. Silver bets meanwhile, also rose for the third straight week and they are now at their highest level in the past ten weeks, dating back to March 25th.

Metals Price Performance in last 5-Days:

– Platinum was the big riser with a 10% gain.
– Silver was up by 9%.
– Palladium over 7.5%.
– Copper rose by 3%.
– Gold was up by 0.5%.
– Steel was down by 9% in the last 5 days.
– All of the metals markets have been up by at least 5% or more in the last 90 days, with platinum & gold up by approximately 20% and steel up by almost 20%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Steel (68 percent) and Platinum (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (50 percent) and Gold (52 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (46.4 percent)
Silver (92.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.1 percent)
Copper (55.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (54.3 percent)
Platinum (63.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (75.9 percent)
Palladium (49.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (48.0 percent)
Steel (67.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.0 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (34 percent) and Palladium (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-1 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-10.6 percent)
Silver (20.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (11.5 percent)
Copper (-0.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.9 percent)
Platinum (34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.7 percent)
Palladium (26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (18.6 percent)
Steel (-12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.4	17.0	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.1	4.6
– Net Position:	187,905	-220,826	32,921
– Gross Longs:	246,982	70,905	51,996
– Gross Shorts:	59,077	291,731	19,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	42.8	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-6.7	23.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	20.0	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	68.5	7.1
– Net Position:	60,770	-79,141	18,371
– Gross Longs:	81,981	32,689	29,969
– Gross Shorts:	21,211	111,830	11,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	6.9	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-16.3	-6.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	30.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	43.3	5.5
– Net Position:	24,094	-27,013	2,919
– Gross Longs:	71,249	64,639	14,562
– Gross Shorts:	47,155	91,652	11,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	47.2	35.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	-2.9	24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,343 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	17.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	41.5	7.5
– Net Position:	20,049	-23,233	3,184
– Gross Longs:	59,019	16,293	10,349
– Gross Shorts:	38,970	39,526	7,165
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	40.8	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-26.0	-32.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.3	46.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.5	11.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-7,293	6,502	791
– Gross Longs:	6,570	8,498	2,336
– Gross Shorts:	13,863	1,996	1,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	4.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	46.9	67.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-26.0	-6.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	69.9	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-1,544	1,434	110
– Gross Longs:	7,698	22,265	274
– Gross Shorts:	9,242	20,831	164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	33.1	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	12.1	23.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

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