COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculators sharply raise Euro, British Pound & Canadian Dollar bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (29,034 contracts) with the British Pound (19,699 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (15,201 contracts), the Australian Dollar (3,731 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,887 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,855 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (481 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-15,448 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,050 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-945 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-638 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply raise Euro, British Pound & Canadian Dollar bets

This week’s COT currency’s data saw improvement in many of the non-dollar currencies this week. The US Dollar Index fell by over 1 percent this week as the American currency faces pressure from moderating inflation and expected interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve starting in September.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Euro speculator positioning jumped by +29,034 contracts this week and rose for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks. This week’s gain was the highest weekly rise in over a year and brought the overall bullish position to an 11-week high. Euro positions have now been in bullish territory for seven straight weeks after a brief fall onto the bearish side for two weeks in late-June and early-July. The Euro exchange rate versus the dollar closed this week above it’s 200-week moving average and right below the 1.1200 exchange rate — the highest weekly close since July of 2023.

The British pound sterling speculator contracts rose strongly this week (+19,699 contracts) following sharp declines over the past three weeks that had taken a total of -94,371 contracts off of the speculator’s bullish standing. The GBP speculator position had surged to an all-time record high on July 23rd at a total of +142,183 contracts before embarking on a three-week slide. The previous record high speculator position had been prior (July 17th 2007 at +98,366 contracts) to the start of the Great Financial Crisis. This week’s rebound brings the speculator standing back up to a total of +67,511 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate this week has touched its highest level since March of 2022 against the US dollar and closed over 1.3200 to end the week.

The Canadian dollar has been on the other side of the spectrum than that of the British pound as it recently fell to an all-time record bearish speculator level. The CAD spec bets had dropped to -196,263 contracts on July 30th but have now rebounded for three straight weeks including this week’s gain by over +15,000 contracts. The CAD position settled this week at a standing of -164,410 contracts (the 4th most bearish level on record) and, overall, has now been in a bearish position for fifty-five straight weeks, dating back to August 1st of 2023. The Canadian dollar exchange rate had a strong week versus the US dollar and rose over 1 percent as the CAD futures price closed over the 0.7400 threshold and up against the top of its weekly down-trending channel that started in May/June of 2021.

Finally, the Japanese yen speculator bets continued to gain for a seventh straight week this week after dropping to the second lowest level on record at -184,223 contracts on July 2nd. The seven-week improvement has totaled +207,808 contracts and has taken the speculator position from -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to this week’s total of +23,585 contracts. Traders have been quick to reverse their positions on central bank policy changes (and currency intervention) with the US Federal Reserve ready to reduce interest rates while the Bank of Japan is possibly looking to raise their rates. The yen exchange rate versus the dollar rose strongly this week with a 5-day gain over 2 percent. The Japanese yen strength brought the USDJPY currency pair to the 144.39 exchange rate, the best weekly close for the yen since January.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The the British Pound (66 percent), Bitcoin (63 percent) and the Australian Dollar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (4 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.6 percent)
EuroFX (44.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (31.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (66.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (57.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (57.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (54.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.0 percent)
Bitcoin (62.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (72.4 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (99 percent) and the Swiss Franc (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-76 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-35 percent), Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.2 percent)
EuroFX (22.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-7.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (98.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (37.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-26.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-34.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-22.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-76.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-89.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-6.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-7.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.8	19.3	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	52.9	7.3
– Net Position:	17,591	-16,372	-1,219
– Gross Longs:	35,452	9,412	2,361
– Gross Shorts:	17,861	25,784	3,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	66.1	2.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	2.2	-26.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	55.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	68.8	7.1
– Net Position:	56,017	-89,224	33,207
– Gross Longs:	194,350	386,948	82,517
– Gross Shorts:	138,333	476,172	49,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	55.8	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-23.2	21.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	23.9	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	58.4	10.9
– Net Position:	67,511	-79,955	12,444
– Gross Longs:	125,634	55,248	37,610
– Gross Shorts:	58,123	135,203	25,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	29.6	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	5.8	5.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	59.2	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	68.1	9.9
– Net Position:	23,585	-28,401	4,816
– Gross Longs:	88,761	187,055	35,989
– Gross Shorts:	65,176	215,456	31,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	97.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	98.9	-97.9	39.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -25,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	69.9	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.6	25.1	24.9
– Net Position:	-25,714	30,096	-4,382
– Gross Longs:	7,600	46,907	12,329
– Gross Shorts:	33,314	16,811	16,711
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	48.6	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.9	-47.6	40.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -164,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	82.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	29.1	10.4
– Net Position:	-164,410	167,006	-2,596
– Gross Longs:	19,528	258,246	30,062
– Gross Shorts:	183,938	91,240	32,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	84.9	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	22.1	-1.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	47.7	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	27.3	13.2
– Net Position:	-38,885	38,366	519
– Gross Longs:	70,554	89,429	25,338
– Gross Shorts:	109,439	51,063	24,819
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	45.6	57.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.8	34.7	-24.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	64.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	43.2	7.0
– Net Position:	-13,769	14,000	-231
– Gross Longs:	18,887	42,907	4,465
– Gross Shorts:	32,656	28,907	4,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	81.2	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-76.3	74.7	-16.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	57.3	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	76.5	3.0
– Net Position:	34,646	-33,410	-1,236
– Gross Longs:	66,745	100,092	3,948
– Gross Shorts:	32,099	133,502	5,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	53.0	3.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	15.4	-23.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	78.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.2	14.2	3.2
– Net Position:	-50,955	51,235	-280
– Gross Longs:	14,355	62,490	2,300
– Gross Shorts:	65,310	11,255	2,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	5.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	97.2	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.3	3.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 395 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.1	3.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.9	3.1	3.3
– Net Position:	-243	17	226
– Gross Longs:	24,016	927	1,215
– Gross Shorts:	24,259	910	989
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.7	65.1	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	2.7	0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

24 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Gold, 5-Year, 10-Year & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing again this week following a recent change in policy for the BOJ and position switching of speculators. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 98.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 23,585 net contracts this week with a small gain of 481 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is also at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 15.3 this week. The speculator position registered 291,253 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 23,989 contracts in speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The VIX speculator level resides at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 39.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -24,592 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,330 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 88.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 64,158 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,218 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 84.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.9 this week.

The speculator position was 49,324 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,035 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,736,810 net contracts this week with a drop of -41,738 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,038,112 net contracts this week with a decline by -177,869 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,828 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,158 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 3.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.8 this week. The speculator position was -50,955 net contracts this week with a gain by 2,887 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 4.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The speculator position was -178,893 net contracts this week with a reduction by -13,170 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

24 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Gold leads Speculator Bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold leads Speculator Bets higher

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (23,989 contracts) with Copper (4,477 contracts), Silver (4,035 contracts), Platinum (2,887 contracts) and Steel (750 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with declines in speculator bets was Palladium with a small dip by -41 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (84 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (77 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (90.0 percent)
Silver (84.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.6 percent)
Copper (52.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (48.0 percent)
Platinum (57.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (49.9 percent)
Palladium (12.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.3 percent)
Steel (76.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.7 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (15 percent) and Steel (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-33 percent), Platinum (-21 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.8 percent)
Silver (-15.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.3 percent)
Copper (-33.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-31.1 percent)
Platinum (-20.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.1 percent)
Palladium (-19.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.2 percent)
Steel (3.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 291,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,264 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.7	16.2	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	75.6	5.2
– Net Position:	291,253	-316,506	25,253
– Gross Longs:	355,551	86,232	52,918
– Gross Shorts:	64,298	402,738	27,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-14.1	-2.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.5	24.3	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	72.7	7.0
– Net Position:	49,324	-71,228	21,904
– Gross Longs:	63,930	35,699	32,230
– Gross Shorts:	14,606	106,927	10,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.1	15.1	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	15.1	-8.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 20,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	31.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	44.1	5.1
– Net Position:	20,274	-28,005	7,731
– Gross Longs:	91,835	72,874	19,316
– Gross Shorts:	71,561	100,879	11,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	46.3	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.3	34.1	-22.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.5	22.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	49.0	4.4
– Net Position:	14,826	-21,273	6,447
– Gross Longs:	45,980	18,616	10,054
– Gross Shorts:	31,154	39,889	3,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	34.9	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	22.1	-8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -41 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	51.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.9	9.3	5.6
– Net Position:	-12,265	11,908	357
– Gross Longs:	8,440	14,543	1,952
– Gross Shorts:	20,705	2,635	1,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	88.9	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	18.1	8.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	77.0	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	55.4	0.9
– Net Position:	-5,171	5,213	-42
– Gross Longs:	3,129	18,655	177
– Gross Shorts:	8,300	13,442	219
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	24.5	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-3.5	7.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

24 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra Treasury Bonds (23,519 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,073 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-177,869 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-63,211 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-47,974 contracts), the Fed Funds (-45,221 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-41,738 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-7,165 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (80 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (46.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (20.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (29.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (26.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (71.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (74.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (56.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (80.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (83.3 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (42 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Fed Funds (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (15.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-9.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-50.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-42.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (0.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (42.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (23.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (27.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (36.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 381,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -63,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 445,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	55.2	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	58.7	0.4
– Net Position:	381,853	-380,583	-1,270
– Gross Longs:	1,686,980	6,061,551	38,761
– Gross Shorts:	1,305,127	6,442,134	40,031
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	19.9	87.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-27.5	-0.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -136,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -45,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.3	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	66.9	2.2
– Net Position:	-136,512	145,612	-9,100
– Gross Longs:	147,009	1,304,235	28,950
– Gross Shorts:	283,521	1,158,623	38,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	62.2	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.7	-25.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,152,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -47,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,104,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	76.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	55.4	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,152,580	960,037	192,543
– Gross Longs:	648,767	3,436,139	307,340
– Gross Shorts:	1,801,347	2,476,102	114,797
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	72.5	96.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-8.3	10.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,736,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -41,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,695,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	82.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	60.4	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,736,810	1,486,515	250,295
– Gross Longs:	586,030	5,625,205	488,422
– Gross Shorts:	2,322,840	4,138,690	238,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	5.9	16.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,038,112 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -177,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -860,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	78.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.3	6.7
– Net Position:	-1,038,112	898,127	139,985
– Gross Longs:	411,629	4,134,790	493,072
– Gross Shorts:	1,449,741	3,236,663	353,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.9	67.9	15.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -135,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -150,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	74.4	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	66.3	12.2
– Net Position:	-135,560	177,795	-42,235
– Gross Longs:	291,156	1,634,861	225,405
– Gross Shorts:	426,716	1,457,066	267,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	53.4	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-5.3	12.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	63.1	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	66.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-33,495	-62,345	95,840
– Gross Longs:	349,758	1,123,590	230,592
– Gross Shorts:	383,253	1,185,935	134,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	5.7	96.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-10.4	22.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -325,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -349,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	77.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	59.4	9.5
– Net Position:	-325,614	301,909	23,705
– Gross Longs:	150,286	1,305,478	184,173
– Gross Shorts:	475,900	1,003,569	160,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	39.8	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.2	-52.6	21.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

24 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (13,199 contracts) with Soybean Oil (6,693 contracts), Coffee (5,218 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,692 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,159 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-15,258 contracts) with Soybeans (-13,170 contracts), Corn (-11,291 contracts), Cocoa (-1,380 contracts), Cotton (-1,158 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-615 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Wheat (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (4 percent), Sugar (8 percent), Corn (13 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Live Cattle (17 percent) and Soybean Oil (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (12.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (14.3 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.1 percent)
Coffee (88.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybeans (4.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (31.3 percent)
Live Cattle (17.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.6 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.7 percent)
Cocoa (39.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.8 percent)
Wheat (51.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (42.0 percent)

Corn tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (10 percent), Lean Hogs (7 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybean Oil (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-22 percent), Live Cattle (-17 percent) and Sugar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.5 percent)
Sugar (-16.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.3 percent)
Coffee (-11.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.6 percent)
Soybeans (-6.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-10.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (-21.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-27.6 percent)
Live Cattle (-16.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.2 percent)
Cotton (-11.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.8 percent)
Cocoa (-2.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.1 percent)
Wheat (6.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -165,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	44.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	32.2	11.1
– Net Position:	-165,296	197,121	-31,825
– Gross Longs:	319,844	697,858	140,896
– Gross Shorts:	485,140	500,737	172,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	88.7	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-7.1	-28.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,258 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	54.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	55.8	8.3
– Net Position:	19,304	-13,294	-6,010
– Gross Longs:	188,316	446,314	62,107
– Gross Shorts:	169,012	459,608	68,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	92.7	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	19.2	-24.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 64,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	38.8	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	73.8	2.4
– Net Position:	64,158	-67,737	3,579
– Gross Longs:	79,032	74,979	8,296
– Gross Shorts:	14,874	142,716	4,717
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.4	10.8	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.5	6.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -178,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	62.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	38.5	7.2
– Net Position:	-178,893	197,454	-18,561
– Gross Longs:	105,737	511,626	39,933
– Gross Shorts:	284,630	314,172	58,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	97.6	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	9.1	-20.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	53.2	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	46.4	4.7
– Net Position:	-42,670	39,149	3,521
– Gross Longs:	133,857	305,934	30,612
– Gross Shorts:	176,527	266,785	27,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	82.3	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	24.3	-0.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	52.8	5.4
– Net Position:	13,574	-34,197	20,623
– Gross Longs:	118,191	247,393	49,516
– Gross Shorts:	104,617	281,590	28,893
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	64.2	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	19.9	11.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,622 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	36.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	43.9	14.2
– Net Position:	35,622	-22,612	-13,010
– Gross Longs:	98,255	103,189	27,738
– Gross Shorts:	62,633	125,801	40,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.3	95.1	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	22.5	-14.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	39.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	27.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-21,796	26,506	-4,710
– Gross Longs:	86,247	91,225	14,296
– Gross Shorts:	108,043	64,719	19,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	91.6	62.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-5.4	-11.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	49.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	30.8	5.9
– Net Position:	-42,828	43,223	-395
– Gross Longs:	58,393	114,521	13,326
– Gross Shorts:	101,221	71,298	13,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.3	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	9.1	13.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	30.3	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	56.7	4.0
– Net Position:	28,888	-35,270	6,382
– Gross Longs:	51,923	40,369	11,703
– Gross Shorts:	23,035	75,639	5,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	56.7	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	3.2	-2.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,905 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	33.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	26.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-25,706	31,360	-5,654
– Gross Longs:	134,387	140,441	32,167
– Gross Shorts:	160,093	109,081	37,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.9	34.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-6.5	-2.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by DowJones & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones & Nasdaq

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (5,491 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,897 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-61,352 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-13,871 contracts), the VIX (-4,330 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-2,316 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-461 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (89 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (66 percent) and Nikkei 225 (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (88.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (93.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (52.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (61.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (56.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (65.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (75.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.9 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (40 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (29 percent), the Nikkei 225 (20 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (39.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (35.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-4.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (9.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-3.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (20.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-9.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	47.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	41.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-24,592	21,531	3,061
– Gross Longs:	75,004	193,348	32,701
– Gross Shorts:	99,596	171,817	29,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	3.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.9	-43.6	12.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -84,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	70.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	70.4	8.3
– Net Position:	-84,803	-4,339	89,142
– Gross Longs:	277,634	1,438,541	260,164
– Gross Shorts:	362,437	1,442,880	171,022
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.1	39.3	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	5.3	-3.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	56.7	15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	65.4	14.6
– Net Position:	6,728	-7,610	882
– Gross Longs:	22,507	49,419	13,628
– Gross Shorts:	15,779	57,029	12,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	27.2	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	5.0	-12.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	58.5	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	67.6	11.5
– Net Position:	11,381	-22,205	10,824
– Gross Longs:	55,674	142,783	38,994
– Gross Shorts:	44,293	164,988	28,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	28.2	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-7.1	0.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	76.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	72.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-27,127	14,057	13,070
– Gross Longs:	64,562	321,263	31,232
– Gross Shorts:	91,689	307,206	18,162
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	29.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.7	-28.7	14.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	60.0	24.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.7	17.0
– Net Position:	-2,391	1,342	1,049
– Gross Longs:	2,295	8,711	3,523
– Gross Shorts:	4,686	7,369	2,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	35.8	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-13.1	-10.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,102 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	90.1	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	82.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-38,563	32,556	6,007
– Gross Longs:	27,458	375,143	12,596
– Gross Shorts:	66,021	342,587	6,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	69.9	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	13.5	4.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

17 Aug

Speculators flip Japanese Yen bets into 1st bullish position since March 2021

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (34,458 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,400 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,021 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,127 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,041 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (409 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-26,587 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-15,242 contracts), the EuroFX (-6,597 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,417 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators flip Japanese Yen bets into 1st bullish position since March 2021

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is sharp increase in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculators followed up last week’s surge in buying of yen contracts with another strong weekly gain by +34,458 net contracts this week. Last week’s jump by +62,105 contracts was the third largest weekly gain on record (following +69,020 contracts on March 1st 2011 and the highest weekly change of +77,690 contracts on October 31st 2006).

Overall, speculators have now boosted yen positions for six consecutive weeks for a 6-week total increase of +207,327 contracts that has brought the positioning from -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to this week’s +23,104 contract level.

This is the first weekly bullish position following 178 consecutive weeks of bearish levels that dated back to March 9th of 2021. The 178-week streak of consecutive bearish positions marks the highest all-time streak – illustrating the depth of bearish sentiment the yen has experienced over the past few years.

The yen exchange rate versus the US dollar has now improved by almost 9 percent from the low-point reached in July, according to this week’s closing prices. The July low (USDJPY level of 161.95) was also the weakest level for the yen against the dollar since 1986. The USDJPY closed out the week at 147.54.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and Bitcoin (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (58 percent), Mexican Peso (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (1 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the EuroFX (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.4 percent)
EuroFX (31.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (34.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (57.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (83.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (56.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.0 percent)
Bitcoin (72.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.5 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Swiss Franc (40 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (20 percent), the EuroFX (16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-89 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-27 percent), the Australian Dollar (-23 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-26.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-22.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-89.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-83.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-30.9 percent)
Bitcoin (19.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (17.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.5	18.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	55.8	8.0
– Net Position:	18,536	-17,120	-1,416
– Gross Longs:	33,686	8,138	2,194
– Gross Shorts:	15,150	25,258	3,610
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	64.5	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	3.0	-37.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	57.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	65.4	7.6
– Net Position:	26,983	-54,027	27,044
– Gross Longs:	182,212	382,394	77,589
– Gross Shorts:	155,229	436,421	50,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.0	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-15.5	10.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.9	27.8	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	56.2	12.6
– Net Position:	47,812	-58,340	10,528
– Gross Longs:	102,603	57,134	36,458
– Gross Shorts:	54,791	115,474	25,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	38.2	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.7	15.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,354 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	60.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	67.7	10.4
– Net Position:	23,104	-23,527	423
– Gross Longs:	87,101	190,064	33,201
– Gross Shorts:	63,997	213,591	32,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	83.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	100.0	-100.0	33.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	67.0	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.9	26.9	25.6
– Net Position:	-21,664	26,308	-4,644
– Gross Longs:	9,155	44,026	12,177
– Gross Shorts:	30,819	17,718	16,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	42.4	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.4	-49.1	37.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	82.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.0	26.1	10.1
– Net Position:	-179,611	180,958	-1,347
– Gross Longs:	20,668	265,254	31,163
– Gross Shorts:	200,279	84,296	32,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	90.6	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	23.2	8.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	50.0	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.2	24.2	16.2
– Net Position:	-42,616	48,481	-5,865
– Gross Longs:	65,028	94,084	24,636
– Gross Shorts:	107,644	45,603	30,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	52.5	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	25.6	-27.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	67.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	42.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-15,624	16,811	-1,187
– Gross Longs:	17,050	44,973	4,240
– Gross Shorts:	32,674	28,162	5,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.3	42.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-89.1	86.3	-11.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	51.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	78.0	2.8
– Net Position:	50,094	-48,708	-1,386
– Gross Longs:	82,188	95,620	3,845
– Gross Shorts:	32,094	144,328	5,231
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	45.7	2.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	7.9	-19.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	75.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	10.0	3.0
– Net Position:	-53,842	54,218	-376
– Gross Longs:	18,700	62,592	2,117
– Gross Shorts:	72,542	8,374	2,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	100.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.9	0.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.5	2.3	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.1	4.7	3.1
– Net Position:	395	-676	281
– Gross Longs:	24,121	644	1,148
– Gross Shorts:	23,726	1,320	867
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	47.5	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-30.2	-2.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Yen, VIX, 5-Year & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 13th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 100.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 23,104 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 34,458 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is now at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 35.9 this week. The speculator position registered -20,262 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 23,283 contracts in speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Gold speculator level resides at a 92.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 11.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 267,264 net contracts this week with a rise by 28,515 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 83.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 36.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 445,064 net contracts this week with a jump of 77,916 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 83.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.6 this week.

The speculator position was 58,940 net contracts this week with a small dip of -267 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,695,072 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,996 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.9 this week. The speculator position was -41,670 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 238 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Brazil Real speculator level resides at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,842 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,041 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.1 this week. The speculator position was -860,243 net contracts this week with a drop by -84,035 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gasoline

Finally, the Gasoline speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 4.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -34.2 this week. The speculator position was 15,028 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,441 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

17 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (28,515 contracts) with Platinum (1,648 contracts) and Palladium (1,020 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,801 contracts), Silver (-3,792 contracts) and with Steel (-23 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (92 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (92.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (80.1 percent)
Silver (78.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.8 percent)
Copper (48.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.5 percent)
Platinum (49.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.5 percent)
Palladium (12.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (73.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.8 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data this week.

Platinum (-32 percent) and Copper (-31 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.2 percent)
Silver (-14.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.3 percent)
Copper (-31.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-28.4 percent)
Platinum (-32.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-27.5 percent)
Palladium (-11.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)
Steel (-0.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 267,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 28,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.0	17.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	75.3	5.0
– Net Position:	267,264	-292,502	25,238
– Gross Longs:	328,769	88,313	50,388
– Gross Shorts:	61,505	380,815	25,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.4	6.8	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-11.2	7.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	25.8	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	70.9	7.1
– Net Position:	45,289	-66,776	21,487
– Gross Longs:	61,458	38,079	31,934
– Gross Shorts:	16,169	104,855	10,447
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	20.1	74.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.7	-12.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 15,797 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	31.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	15,797	-24,403	8,606
– Gross Longs:	86,013	72,860	20,861
– Gross Shorts:	70,216	97,263	12,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	49.4	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.1	32.5	-26.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 11,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.7	23.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	45.8	4.1
– Net Position:	11,939	-18,610	6,671
– Gross Longs:	46,287	18,769	10,015
– Gross Shorts:	34,348	37,379	3,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.9	42.0	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.1	30.4	11.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	48.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	8.1	5.7
– Net Position:	-12,224	11,676	548
– Gross Longs:	8,843	14,059	2,216
– Gross Shorts:	21,067	2,383	1,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	5.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	87.3	59.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	7.5	23.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.5	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	51.6	1.2
– Net Position:	-5,921	5,987	-66
– Gross Longs:	2,123	17,057	181
– Gross Shorts:	8,044	11,070	247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	27.4	25.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	0.4	6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

17 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (77,916 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (31,525 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27,529 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13,624 contracts) and the the 2-Year Bonds (605 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-84,035 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-6,996 contracts) and with the Fed Funds (-10,447 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (83 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (53 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (46.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (26.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (23.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (74.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (63.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (53.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (39.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (83.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (79.2 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (36 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-48 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (15.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (13.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (-48.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-42.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (21.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (36.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (29.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 445,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 77,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 367,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	55.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	59.2	0.4
– Net Position:	445,064	-446,620	1,556
– Gross Longs:	1,861,252	5,869,854	40,261
– Gross Shorts:	1,416,188	6,316,474	38,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.5	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.5	-36.9	3.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -91,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	72.1	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-91,291	101,606	-10,315
– Gross Longs:	188,069	1,208,291	28,895
– Gross Shorts:	279,360	1,106,685	39,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	52.6	66.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-12.4	-21.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,104,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,105,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	75.9	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	55.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-1,104,606	901,536	203,070
– Gross Longs:	708,892	3,382,762	309,592
– Gross Shorts:	1,813,498	2,481,226	106,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	68.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-12.9	18.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,695,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,688,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	82.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	61.3	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,695,072	1,447,942	247,130
– Gross Longs:	599,507	5,622,352	485,484
– Gross Shorts:	2,294,579	4,174,410	238,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	3.7	19.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -860,243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -84,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -776,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	78.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	64.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-860,243	715,466	144,777
– Gross Longs:	458,121	3,960,745	481,134
– Gross Shorts:	1,318,364	3,245,279	336,357
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	85.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-48.1	55.7	22.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -150,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	76.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	67.7	11.8
– Net Position:	-150,633	184,945	-34,312
– Gross Longs:	266,938	1,656,652	221,951
– Gross Shorts:	417,571	1,471,707	256,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	55.3	92.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-2.8	5.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 31,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	64.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-26,330	-73,703	100,033
– Gross Longs:	347,997	1,110,611	234,318
– Gross Shorts:	374,327	1,184,314	134,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	1.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	-14.2	35.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -349,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	77.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	58.6	8.9
– Net Position:	-349,133	318,838	30,295
– Gross Longs:	156,813	1,314,725	182,390
– Gross Shorts:	505,946	995,887	152,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	49.0	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-36.3	29.5

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