COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 9

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (45,047 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (43,633 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (41,774 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (36,024 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (20,667 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12,726 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (10,650 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-179,227 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-100,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bond Price Performance led by small gains in SOFRs

In the bond markets price performance changes, the five-day percent changes were led by the three-month and one-month Secured Overnight Financing Rates (SOFR), which rose by 0.13% and 0.07%, respectively. The Fed Funds (0.02%) were virtually unchanged on the week, while the 2-Year Bond saw a minuscule fall by -0.04%.

The US Treasury Bond was down by -0.14%, the 5-Year Bond fell by -0.22%, and the 10-Year Note was lower by -0.36%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (88 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (17.8 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (78.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (32.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (39.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (88.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (81.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (83.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (79.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (23.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (33.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (42.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (34 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-31.9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-31.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (34.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (12.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (0.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-10.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -100,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	59.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	62.9	1.5
– Net Position:	59,440	-83,088	23,648
– Gross Longs:	494,204	1,268,848	55,093
– Gross Shorts:	434,764	1,351,936	31,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	33.1	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	29.6	22.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -524,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -179,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	56.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-524,612	522,562	2,050
– Gross Longs:	1,807,449	7,187,932	21,089
– Gross Shorts:	2,332,061	6,665,370	19,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	66.6	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.6	10.5	1.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -273,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 36,024 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -309,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	52.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-273,183	272,850	333
– Gross Longs:	251,944	1,033,988	546
– Gross Shorts:	525,127	761,138	213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	69.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-12.0	0.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,304,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,346,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	76.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	49.8	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,304,880	1,176,303	128,577
– Gross Longs:	659,942	3,402,936	245,623
– Gross Shorts:	1,964,822	2,226,633	117,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	82.2	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-1.8	7.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,269,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 43,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	51.7	4.5
– Net Position:	-2,269,120	2,126,524	142,596
– Gross Longs:	515,461	5,601,486	445,017
– Gross Shorts:	2,784,581	3,474,962	302,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	80.9	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-8.4	-5.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -870,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,047 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -915,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	76.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	63.0	6.1
– Net Position:	-870,505	785,650	84,855
– Gross Longs:	713,272	4,383,326	432,679
– Gross Shorts:	1,583,777	3,597,676	347,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	71.2	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	26.5	-18.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -249,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	79.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	66.7	12.1
– Net Position:	-249,202	330,563	-81,361
– Gross Longs:	275,338	2,057,956	231,470
– Gross Shorts:	524,540	1,727,393	312,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	62.8	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-27.1	-25.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	75.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	82.3	7.3
– Net Position:	13,835	-123,423	109,588
– Gross Longs:	170,410	1,370,974	241,908
– Gross Shorts:	156,575	1,494,397	132,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	8.1	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-1.2	-25.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -235,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -245,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	72.7	8.3
– Net Position:	-235,097	228,601	6,496
– Gross Longs:	146,941	1,761,337	182,270
– Gross Shorts:	382,038	1,532,736	175,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.0	29.7	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-5.8	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

18 Jan

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Bloomberg Commodity Index & WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Bloomberg Commodity Index & WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was the Bloomberg Commodity Index (7,989 contracts) with Gasoline (2,569 contracts) and WTI Crude (776 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-20,042 contracts), Brent Oil (-6,035 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-4,359 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Energy Market Price Performance led by Heating Oil

The energy markets saw Heating Oil lead the price performance over the last five days with a gain by 3.7%. Brent Crude Oil was up by 1.79%, while the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 1.53% on the week. WTI Crude Oil was also higher by 1.22%, and Gasoline rose by approximately 0.50%.

The only energy market with a down week was Natural Gas, which fell by -0.62%. Natural Gas has been on a strong downtrend and has fallen by 33% in the past 30 days, and by 22% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index & Gasoline

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (5.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (5.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (5.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.4 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (14.9 percent)
Gasoline (67.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (64.4 percent)
Heating Oil (62.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.3 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (80.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bloomberg Index (61.5 percent) and WTI Crude (2.3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-43.8 percent), Gasoline (-32.8 percent) and Brent Oil (-13.6 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-43.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-20.1 percent)
Gasoline (-32.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-23.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-11.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-0.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (61.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (23.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	42.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	45.6	2.9
– Net Position:	58,128	-65,450	7,322
– Gross Longs:	286,136	855,313	65,125
– Gross Shorts:	228,008	920,763	57,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	96.8	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-1.3	-6.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	34.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	21.2	2.2
– Net Position:	-33,887	30,758	3,129
– Gross Longs:	52,273	79,946	8,124
– Gross Shorts:	86,160	49,188	4,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	66.3	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	10.8	29.4

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -185,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,559 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	36.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	26.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-185,601	172,844	12,757
– Gross Longs:	270,263	602,296	54,985
– Gross Shorts:	455,864	429,452	42,228
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.8	42.9	-1.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 72,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,569 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	48.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	66.0	4.3
– Net Position:	72,527	-79,062	6,535
– Gross Longs:	109,165	218,251	26,081
– Gross Shorts:	36,638	297,313	19,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.2	32.8	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.8	32.8	-17.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	47.6	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	55.0	8.9
– Net Position:	14,511	-27,335	12,824
– Gross Longs:	62,981	174,862	45,706
– Gross Shorts:	48,470	202,197	32,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	40.5	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	23.6	-43.0

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	69.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	67.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-5,798	4,845	953
– Gross Longs:	51,952	131,526	974
– Gross Shorts:	57,750	126,681	21
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	46.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	16.3	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	61.5	-63.4	20.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

18 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (26,028 contracts) with Soybean Meal (13,215 contracts), Live Cattle (5,213 contracts), Coffee (2,216 contracts), Wheat (2,066 contracts), Cotton (1,489 contracts) and Lean Hogs (90 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-93,535 contracts), Soybeans (-45,823 contracts), Cocoa (-12,726 contracts) and with Sugar (-11,613 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Price Performance led by Soybean Oil

Soft commodity prices this week saw Soybean Oil lead the past five days’ performance with a gain of 5.33%. Soybean Oil has risen by almost 3% over the past 90 days.

Lean Hogs came in second with a 1.13% gain this week, followed by Cotton, which rose by 0.45%. Sugar (0.10%) and Wheat (0.09%) were marginally higher on the week while Live Cattle was virtually unchanged.

Soybeans fell by just over half a percent (-0.68%), followed by Coffee (-0.81%), which was lower by just under -1%. Cocoa fell by -2.6%, while Corn dropped by over -4%, and Soybean Meal was down by about -5%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybeans

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (63 percent), Soybeans (57 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) and Sugar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (23 percent) and the Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.4 percent)
Sugar (7.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.7 percent)
Coffee (56.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.8 percent)
Soybeans (56.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (28.2 percent)
Live Cattle (62.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (55.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.6 percent)
Cotton (22.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (13.0 percent)
Wheat (28.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (26.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (13 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (7 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-53 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-41 percent), Soybean Oil (-22 percent) and Soybean Meal (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.2 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.4 percent)
Coffee (-2.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.5 percent)
Soybeans (-41.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-21.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-27.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-20.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-27.8 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.2 percent)
Cotton (6.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.6 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.2 percent)
Wheat (-52.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	48.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	45.1	9.6
– Net Position:	-33,423	48,923	-15,500
– Gross Longs:	328,395	776,624	140,104
– Gross Shorts:	361,818	727,701	155,604
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	64.6	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.3	14.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -165,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	56.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	38.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-165,711	176,273	-10,562
– Gross Longs:	143,494	545,372	69,916
– Gross Shorts:	309,205	369,099	80,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.3	94.1	6.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-2.2	-9.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	40.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	60.7	3.8
– Net Position:	32,752	-34,127	1,375
– Gross Longs:	57,888	69,400	7,843
– Gross Shorts:	25,136	103,527	6,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	45.1	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	2.9	-7.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	51.5	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	56.3	8.7
– Net Position:	58,947	-39,485	-19,462
– Gross Longs:	176,440	419,099	51,203
– Gross Shorts:	117,493	458,584	70,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	43.6	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.3	42.4	2.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -25,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 26,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	49.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	46.3	4.1
– Net Position:	-25,135	22,739	2,396
– Gross Longs:	119,861	320,241	28,550
– Gross Shorts:	144,996	297,502	26,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	71.9	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	21.5	-11.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	52.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	55.2	5.9
– Net Position:	757	-13,489	12,732
– Gross Longs:	111,971	269,497	42,916
– Gross Shorts:	111,214	282,986	30,184
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	70.1	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.2	20.7	-3.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 85,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	33.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	55.9	12.2
– Net Position:	85,939	-73,983	-11,956
– Gross Longs:	144,736	107,437	27,580
– Gross Shorts:	58,797	181,420	39,536
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	32.1	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-14.0	-2.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 90 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	35.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	47.2	8.9
– Net Position:	41,478	-35,177	-6,301
– Gross Longs:	117,956	108,712	20,863
– Gross Shorts:	76,478	143,889	27,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	47.0	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.4	6.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -27,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	45.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	38.2	3.7
– Net Position:	-27,431	24,316	3,115
– Gross Longs:	88,834	149,665	15,181
– Gross Shorts:	116,265	125,349	12,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	75.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-8.6	29.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	47.0	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	38.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-9,496	12,095	-2,599
– Gross Longs:	27,010	65,030	9,528
– Gross Shorts:	36,506	52,935	12,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.2	-0.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	36.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	20.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-86,025	84,878	1,147
– Gross Longs:	128,167	188,716	30,432
– Gross Shorts:	214,192	103,838	29,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	72.6	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.9	53.3	35.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

11 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Palladium, Steel, WTI Crude & Sugar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 6th 2026.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most extreme bullish standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level sits at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise by 7 percentage points while the speculator position registered 579 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 1,150 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the second most bullish extreme standing this week with the Steel speculator level currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 21 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 9,477 net contracts this week with a dip by -584 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The EUR speculator level currently resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 26 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 162,812 net contracts this week with a boost by 5,347 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is at a 89 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 6 percentage points while the overall speculator position was 11,483 net contracts this week with a weekly drop of -4,757 contracts in the speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Copper speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range with the six-week trend for the speculator strength score gaining by 13 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position was 57,858 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,981 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at just a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week. The overall speculator position totaled 57,352 net contracts this week with a change of -7,239 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Cocoa speculator level sitting at a 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 10 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 3,230 net contracts this week with a small gain of 72 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level also resides at an approximate 10 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an increase by 8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -154,098 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,276 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the speculator standing leveled at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21 percentage points this week. The speculator position totaled -165,559 net contracts this week with a decline of -10,665 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -28 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -51,163 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,277 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates

21 Sep

US Dollar Index Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,071 contracts), the British Pound (27,025 contracts), the Brazilian Real (6,135 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,261 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,799 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (1,740 contracts) and Bitcoin (488 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-30,232 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-9,261 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-7,336 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-7,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Speculators push Bets to most bearish level since 2021

This week’s Currency Speculator positioning is highlighted by the number of big changes on the week. We had three currency positions changed by over 25,000 contracts and three others by 7,500 contracts or more.

Starting off, the U.S. Dollar Index positions fell this week by -7,336 net contracts. This was the second straight week of declines and the third out of the last four weeks. This was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates on September 17th by 25 basis points. The overall U.S. Dollar Index positioning has now been in a negative or bearish standing for 14 consecutive weeks. This week’s current standing at -12,894 contracts is the most bearish level for the U.S. Dollar Index since February 23, 2021, a span of 238 weeks. At that time, the U.S. Dollar Index price was right around the 90.90 exchange rate, compared to today, where the U.S. Dollar Index resides at 97.27 to close out last week.

Next up, the biggest gain on the week was by the Australian Dollar with a rise by 28,071 contracts. Over the past three weeks, Australian Dollar contracts have risen by almost +50,000 positions after dropping to a -100,000 contract (close to a record bearish low) standing on August 26th. Overall, AUD speculator positions have been highly bearish since December of 2024 and have now been in negative territory for 40 consecutive weeks. The Australian Dollar exchange rate has risen by over 7% this year against the U.S. Dollar but remains under its 200-week moving average, with the AUD closing this week at 0.6602.

The British Pound Sterling had the next highest gain of the week as spec positions jumped by over 27,000 contracts. This week’s gain followed three weeks of declines as well as decreases in eight out of the previous nine weeks. Overall, the British Pound Sterling has now been in a bearish position for eight consecutive weeks but the strong rebound this week brings the overall net standing for the British Pound Sterling to a small bearish position of -6,580 net contracts. In terms of exchange rates, the British Pound Sterling has been up by 10.33% against the U.S. Dollar this year as the British Pound closed out the week at 1.3472.

The Japanese Yen saw the largest decline this week by a -30,232 net contract shortfall. The yen positions had started out the year of 2025 on a sharp incline but has been trending the other way and has been quickly shedding its bullish positions with declines in eight out of the past 12 weeks for a loss of -70,866 net contracts over the past 12 weeks. The Japanese Yen position has eroded after reaching an all-time high in April at a total of +179,212 net contracts. This week the overall net position came in at a +61,411 net contracts, the lowest level of the past 30 weeks. The Japanese Yen exchange rate does remain higher against the U.S. Dollar by approximately 8% on the year but has cooled off and has been sliding since hitting a yearly high in April.

Brazilian Real leads FX Price Changes this week

Leading this week’s currency market price changes was the Brazilian Real, which advanced by 0.56%. The Real has now been up by approximately 2% over the last 30 days and is higher now by 5.86% over the past 90 days.

The Canadian Dollar comes up next with a 0.41% increase on the week. The ‘Loonie’ Dollar has turned positive over the past 90 days with a 1.41% rise. The Mexican Peso follows next with a 0.27% edge higher on the week. The Peso has advanced by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

The U.S. Dollar Index edged up by 0.16% this week, followed by the Euro and the Swiss Franc, which were virtually unchanged but up by 0.09% each for the past 5 days.

The Japanese Yen dipped by -0.24% on the week, followed by the British Pound Sterling, which saw a slide by -0.67%. The Australian Dollar was lower by -0.84%, while Bitcoin declined by -1.20%. And finally, the New Zealand Dollar saw the largest shortfall on the week with a -1.68% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent) and the EuroFX (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (69 percent), Japanese Yen (68 percent) and the Bitcoin (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores is the British Pound (23 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (16.1 percent)
EuroFX (73.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (9.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (67.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (44.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (54.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.1 percent)
Bitcoin (53.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (42.8 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (32 percent) and the Brazilian Real (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent), US Dollar Index (-13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-12.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.1 percent)
EuroFX (0.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-15.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (26.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	54.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	19.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-12,894	13,534	-640
– Gross Longs:	12,491	20,961	2,776
– Gross Shorts:	25,385	7,427	3,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	16.2	-31.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	57.3	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	76.9	5.3
– Net Position:	117,759	-167,380	49,621
– Gross Longs:	253,261	490,481	94,620
– Gross Shorts:	135,502	657,861	44,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.2	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.3	4.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 27,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	48.0	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	50.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-6,580	-5,099	11,679
– Gross Longs:	80,796	112,620	37,259
– Gross Shorts:	87,376	117,719	25,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	63.9	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-16.2	23.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	31.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	54.6	11.2
– Net Position:	61,411	-68,338	6,927
– Gross Longs:	161,673	95,157	40,523
– Gross Shorts:	100,262	163,495	33,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	33.7	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.8	3.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,839 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	68.9	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	29.6	24.8
– Net Position:	-26,040	28,198	-2,158
– Gross Longs:	6,235	49,405	15,606
– Gross Shorts:	32,275	21,207	17,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	45.5	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-8.0	15.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	82.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-107,177	114,181	-7,004
– Gross Longs:	20,975	218,993	22,611
– Gross Shorts:	128,152	104,812	29,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	60.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	12.9	-4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	53.0	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	26.8	12.5
– Net Position:	-51,160	40,651	10,509
– Gross Longs:	40,276	82,083	29,912
– Gross Shorts:	91,436	41,432	19,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	54.2	76.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.0	-25.0	25.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	70.5	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	31.0	10.3
– Net Position:	-18,004	19,416	-1,412
– Gross Longs:	9,251	34,634	3,655
– Gross Shorts:	27,255	15,218	5,067
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	56.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	14.9	-1.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 77,993 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	34.0	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	79.5	1.5
– Net Position:	77,993	-82,741	4,748
– Gross Longs:	112,395	61,957	7,553
– Gross Shorts:	34,402	144,698	2,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	31.7	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.7	6.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 62,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	31.4	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	86.1	0.8
– Net Position:	62,222	-65,752	3,530
– Gross Longs:	72,832	37,805	4,483
– Gross Shorts:	10,610	103,557	953
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	3.9	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.5	-30.4	1.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.5	4.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.4	5.6	3.1
– Net Position:	20	-453	433
– Gross Longs:	23,788	1,151	1,323
– Gross Shorts:	23,768	1,604	890
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	59.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.2	-36.7	6.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, Brazil Real & EAFE lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 16th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level sits currently at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 17 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 95,098 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,514 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The BRL speculator level is now at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 31 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 62,222 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 6,135 contracts in speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level residing at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 9,549 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,034 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is at a 81 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an advance by 11 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 266,410 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,670 contracts in the speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Silver speculator level sits at a 79 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was an edge higher by 1 percentage point this week.

The speculator position was 51,538 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the SOFR 1-Month speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a large drop by -64 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -297,794 net contracts this week with a decline of -88,017 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -13 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -12,894 net contracts this week with a decrease of -7,336 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The VIX speculator level resides at just a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -101,689 net contracts this week with a change of 6,121 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -16 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 98,709 net contracts this week with a boost by 16,865 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -7 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,403,470 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,670 contracts) with Copper (3,107 contracts) and Platinum (847 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-2,399 contracts), Palladium (-270 contracts) and with Steel (-28 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads Metals Price Changes this week

Silver was the leader in this week’s metals market’s price performance changes. Silver was up by 1.8% over the last 5 days and has been higher by 12.28% over the past 30 days, while also surging by 31.72% over the past 90 days.

Gold comes in next with a gain of 1.09% on the week. Gold has risen by 8.31% in the past 30 days and is up by 13.74% over the past 90 days. Platinum also rose modestly this week with a 0.45% gain. Platinum has seen its price shoot up by 5.44% in the past 30 days and by a whopping 42.27% in the past 90 days.

Copper dipped by -0.28% this week. Copper has been up by approximately 4% in the past 30 days, but over the past 90 days copper has fallen by -1.24%. Steel dropped this week by -3.59%. However, Steel has been higher by over 3% in the past 30 days and is up by approximately 19% in the past 90 days.

Palladium came in as the biggest loser this week with a -5.39% decline. Palladium, however, has been higher by over 2% in the past 30 days and has increased by approximately 20% over the past 90 days.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (81 percent) and Silver (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (81.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (79.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (82.3 percent)
Copper (61.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (58.6 percent)
Platinum (49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.9 percent)
Palladium (74.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (59.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (60.0 percent)

Gold & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Copper (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (14.5 percent)
Silver (1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.3 percent)
Copper (9.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.4 percent)
Platinum (-3.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-15.6 percent)
Palladium (-12.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-14.2 percent)
Steel (0.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (-9.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 266,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.3	15.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	73.7	4.8
– Net Position:	266,410	-302,371	35,961
– Gross Longs:	326,778	77,867	60,872
– Gross Shorts:	60,368	380,238	24,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.4	13.5	94.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.6	9.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 51,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	26.5	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	70.3	7.7
– Net Position:	51,538	-71,389	19,851
– Gross Longs:	71,623	43,118	32,407
– Gross Shorts:	20,085	114,507	12,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	18.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	1.0	-8.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 30,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	31.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	49.1	4.3
– Net Position:	30,348	-38,424	8,076
– Gross Longs:	69,370	69,990	17,621
– Gross Shorts:	39,022	108,414	9,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.5	37.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-4.9	-24.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,203 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	21.3	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	42.3	4.9
– Net Position:	15,203	-21,087	5,884
– Gross Longs:	54,061	21,326	10,757
– Gross Shorts:	38,858	42,413	4,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.0	52.1	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	4.9	-5.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	38.6	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.6	27.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-4,012	2,140	1,872
– Gross Longs:	8,024	7,660	3,113
– Gross Shorts:	12,036	5,520	1,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	13.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	8.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -84 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -28 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	73.1	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	73.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-84	-74	158
– Gross Longs:	4,491	15,641	442
– Gross Shorts:	4,575	15,715	284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	40.4	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.2	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (167,521 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (117,989 contracts), the Fed Funds (87,943 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (38,673 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8,102 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (4,470 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-88,017 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-28,509 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,274 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Fed Funds leads Bonds Price Changes

Leading the bond market’s price performance this week was the Fed Funds, with a modest gain of 0.29%. The Fed Funds have been up by 0.28% over the past 30 days, and are higher by 1.34% over the past 90 days.

Next up, we have the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which rose by 0.25% followed by the 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which was a tick higher by 0.09%. Both of these markets are up by over 1% in the last 90 days, respectively.

The 2-Year Bonds were virtually unchanged, with a 0.04% gain on the week. The 2-year bond has been higher by 0.75% over the past 90 days.

The 5-Year Bonds were slightly lower, with a -0.15% decline on the week. However, the 5-Year Bonds have increased by over 2% in the past 90 days. The 10-Year Bonds were lower by -0.39%. The 10-Year Bonds are up by 1% over the past 30 days, and higher by over 3% in the past 90 days.

Finally, the U.S. Treasury Bond was lower by -1.03% over the past week. However, the U.S. Treasury Bond has been higher by 1.54% in the past 30 days, and has advanced by 3.22% in the past 90 days.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (55 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the SOFR 1-Month (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (36.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (31.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (36.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (72.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (77.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (0.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (20.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (55.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (17 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-64 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (16.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-36.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-64.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -119,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 87,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	63.6	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	59.4	1.4
– Net Position:	-119,513	107,071	12,442
– Gross Longs:	359,323	1,606,503	47,927
– Gross Shorts:	478,836	1,499,432	35,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	54.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-17.8	3.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 167,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	55.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-98,483	97,806	677
– Gross Longs:	1,999,586	7,670,131	35,703
– Gross Shorts:	2,098,069	7,572,325	35,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	44.6	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-18.9	11.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -297,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -88,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -209,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	71.3	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	53.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-297,794	297,793	1
– Gross Longs:	193,227	1,182,295	273
– Gross Shorts:	491,021	884,502	272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-64.0	64.2	-2.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,403,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -28,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,374,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	78.5	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	51.0	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,403,470	1,248,246	155,224
– Gross Longs:	569,143	3,564,142	258,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,972,613	2,315,896	103,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.0	90.8	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	5.9	6.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,436,774 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 117,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,554,763 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	50.7	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,436,774	2,234,545	202,229
– Gross Longs:	519,377	5,660,026	458,365
– Gross Shorts:	2,956,151	3,425,481	256,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	86.8	87.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-4.6	-2.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -819,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -857,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	75.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	63.4	6.0
– Net Position:	-819,299	659,945	159,354
– Gross Longs:	728,767	4,088,798	481,431
– Gross Shorts:	1,548,066	3,428,853	322,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	53.5	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-25.8	14.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -274,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	75.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	61.3	12.4
– Net Position:	-266,822	332,797	-65,975
– Gross Longs:	345,310	1,791,967	228,464
– Gross Shorts:	612,132	1,459,170	294,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	63.4	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-20.8	-14.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -94,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	77.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	79.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-94,138	-41,776	135,914
– Gross Longs:	151,579	1,412,245	258,901
– Gross Shorts:	245,717	1,454,021	122,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	26.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-12.6	22.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -263,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -248,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	69.2	9.2
– Net Position:	-263,219	262,589	630
– Gross Longs:	135,468	1,645,379	183,916
– Gross Shorts:	398,687	1,382,790	183,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	42.7	15.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.2	1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Sep

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by WTI Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (16,865 contracts) with Gasoline (2,538 contracts), Brent Oil (1,496 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (30 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-16,397 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-474 contracts) also seeing slightly lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Energy Price Changes

The energy markets price changes were mixed this week. Natural Gas was the highest mover with a muted 0.37% gain over the past 5 days. Natural Gas has been down -7.12% over the past 30 days while dropping a sharp -31.52% over the past 90 days.

Next up, Heating Oil was higher by 0.25% this week. Heating Oil is up 2.65% over the past 30 days while seeing a gain of 10.57% over the past 90 days.

WTI Crude Oil edged higher this week by 0.22% and has been up 8.73% over the past 90 days.

Brent Crude Oil was modestly lower by -0.38% over the past week. Brent Crude Oil has been up by approximately 1.5% in the past 30 days and is higher by 9% in the past 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next lowest with a -0.43% return on the week while Gasoline saw the highest decline on the week with a -0.81% dip. Gasoline has been higher by 3.5% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 6% over the past 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (6.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is the only market currently in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.9 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Natural Gas (53.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (66.3 percent)
Gasoline (44.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (40.9 percent)
Heating Oil (68.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (44.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (44.7 percent)

Gasoline tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gasoline (13.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. Heating Oil (0.9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude (-16.1 percent), Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) and the Bloomberg Index (-9.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-16.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-27.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-3.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Natural Gas (-13.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-1.7 percent)
Heating Oil (0.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-6.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-9.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-10.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 98,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,844 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	41.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	47.7	2.5
– Net Position:	98,709	-114,749	16,040
– Gross Longs:	278,276	820,579	64,779
– Gross Shorts:	179,567	935,328	48,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	95.5	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	19.9	-26.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	43.2	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	32.0	3.3
– Net Position:	-24,699	23,024	1,675
– Gross Longs:	40,627	88,732	8,347
– Gross Shorts:	65,326	65,708	6,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	54.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.5	3.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -110,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	31.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	25.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-110,944	104,419	6,525
– Gross Longs:	283,441	520,328	52,273
– Gross Shorts:	394,385	415,909	45,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	54.8	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	22.3	-29.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	49.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	64.3	4.3
– Net Position:	43,659	-54,863	11,204
– Gross Longs:	86,260	183,418	27,051
– Gross Shorts:	42,601	238,281	15,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	49.3	86.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-17.7	31.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	44.5	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	56.1	7.4
– Net Position:	18,983	-45,749	26,766
– Gross Longs:	56,751	176,526	56,062
– Gross Shorts:	37,768	222,275	29,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	23.0	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-8.2	22.2

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 30 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	73.2	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	67.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-13,749	13,449	300
– Gross Longs:	33,754	162,851	8,485
– Gross Shorts:	47,503	149,402	8,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	54.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	9.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Sugar & Corn

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Strength Levels vs Past 3-Years (Where are Traders putting positions in?)

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall decisively higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (33,266 contracts) with Corn (18,075 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,621 contracts), Soybeans (12,864 contracts), Wheat (9,980 contracts), Cotton (8,685 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,351 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,514 contracts), Coffee (1,659 contracts) and Cocoa (1,391 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets was Live Cattle with a drop by -4,952 contracts on the week.

Live Cattle leads Softs Price Changes this week

Soft commodities market changes this week were overall lower. Live Cattle was the price change leader over the past 5 days with a gain of 1.05%. Live Cattle is up by almost 2% over the last 30 days and is higher by 12.43% over the past 90 days.

Wheat comes in second with a 0.36% gain on the week. However, Wheat has been down by -2.89% over the past 30 days and lower by -4.21% over the past 90 days. Next up, Cocoa was minimally higher by 0.25% on the week. Cocoa has been cruising higher by 20% over the past 30 days and is up by 21.46% over the past 90 days.

Cotton was down by -0.43% this week followed by Corn which was lower by -1.01% while Soybeans fell by -1.48% and Soybean Meal was down by -1.99%. Sugar dipped by -2.17% this week followed by Lean Hogs which saw a decline by -2.19% and Soybean Oil dropped by -3.09%.

Coffee came in as the biggest loser on the week with a -7.03% decline. However, Coffee has been higher by 26.89% over the past 30 days and is up by approximately 5% over the past 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (99 percent) and Live Cattle (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (68 percent), Coffee (65 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (8 percent), Cotton (12 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and the Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (31.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.8 percent)
Sugar (7.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (64.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.2 percent)
Soybeans (55.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (16.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.3 percent)
Live Cattle (78.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (96.5 percent)
Cotton (11.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.6 percent)
Cocoa (18.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.0 percent)
Wheat (37.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (29.1 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Soybeans (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (14 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Corn (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-7 percent), Live Cattle (-5 percent) and Cotton (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.8 percent)
Sugar (-7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Coffee (10.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.4 percent)
Soybeans (15.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-15.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-29.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.1 percent)
Cotton (-4.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.0 percent)
Wheat (5.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.4	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-36,169	68,373	-32,204
– Gross Longs:	346,750	679,858	126,706
– Gross Shorts:	382,919	611,485	158,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	67.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-12.1	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of -106,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 33,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -139,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	43.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-106,344	112,398	-6,054
– Gross Longs:	175,246	514,370	75,162
– Gross Shorts:	281,590	401,972	81,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	94.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.8	9.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	37.3	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.1	3.5
– Net Position:	40,176	-43,585	3,409
– Gross Longs:	63,063	65,689	9,579
– Gross Shorts:	22,887	109,274	6,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.4	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.1	48.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,323 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	56.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	57.5	7.4
– Net Position:	21,187	-8,293	-12,894
– Gross Longs:	167,351	507,053	53,482
– Gross Shorts:	146,164	515,346	66,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	41.8	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-17.1	7.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 47,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	45.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.2	4.4
– Net Position:	47,501	-55,005	7,504
– Gross Longs:	133,827	292,585	35,467
– Gross Shorts:	86,326	347,590	27,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.1	33.6	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	15.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	51.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	46.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-44,608	29,001	15,607
– Gross Longs:	118,194	317,392	48,569
– Gross Shorts:	162,802	288,391	32,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	86.5	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-13.4	-11.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 101,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.2	30.4	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	51.8	13.3
– Net Position:	101,726	-83,348	-18,378
– Gross Longs:	180,326	118,626	33,510
– Gross Shorts:	78,600	201,974	51,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	20.8	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.5	14.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 95,098 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,514 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	25.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	48.4	7.7
– Net Position:	95,098	-88,856	-6,242
– Gross Longs:	184,169	96,648	23,341
– Gross Shorts:	89,071	185,504	29,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.1	0.3	39.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-16.6	-8.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	33.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-42,649	42,601	48
– Gross Longs:	70,118	129,115	12,948
– Gross Shorts:	112,767	86,514	12,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	89.1	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	3.0	14.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,337 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	47.0	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	58.6	8.2
– Net Position:	8,337	-11,290	2,953
– Gross Longs:	24,775	45,550	10,941
– Gross Shorts:	16,438	56,840	7,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	82.4	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.1	-3.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -72,159 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	36.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	20.6	6.9
– Net Position:	-72,159	73,100	-941
– Gross Longs:	127,443	167,332	30,903
– Gross Shorts:	199,602	94,232	31,844
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	48.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-7.0	8.0

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