InvestMacro

Mag 7 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Faces $11 Trillion Test

4 of “Magnificent 7” set to publish earnings
Combined market cap of 4 tech titans over $11 trillion
Beyond earnings, key focus on tariff impact & AI spending
Meta could move almost 6% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
Apple shares ↓ over 15% year-to-date

Four of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants with a combined market capitalization of over $11 trillion are set to publish their results this week.

And this could be pivotal for markets given the ongoing uncertainty around Trump’s tariff drama. Investors will be eager to learn from these titans how global trade developments have affected their businesses.

Note: A volley of country-specific tariffs will take effect on August 1st, with the United States only securing six trade deals as of writing. There could be a potential extension of a tariff pause between the US and China.

Fresh updates from Mag 7 companies Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple will be in focus.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Microsoft

Microsoft reports on its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday 30th July after US markets close.

Shares of the tech giant have gained over 20% year-to-date, with Wall Street analysts expecting Microsoft to post revenue and income growth amid growing AI demand. Quarterly revenues are projected to jump by 14% to $73.9 billion, while earnings per share are forecast to increase to $3.37 from $2.95 the same time a year ago.

Beyond revenue growth, updates on the Azure cloud service and AI initiatives will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 3.9% move, either up or down, for Microsoft shares post earnings.

2) Meta

Meta is set to report second-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday 30th July.

Shares of this tech titan are up almost 20% since the start of 2025, powered by the hunger for AI. Quarterly revenues are forecast to rise $44.8 billion – marking a 15% jump from a year earlier while EPS are seen jumping to $5.89 from $5.16.

Markets are forecasting a 5.8% move, either up or down, for Meta shares post earnings.

3) Amazon

Amazon is scheduled to report second quarter earnings after US markets close on Thursday 31st July.

The tech giant is expected to report a nearly 10% jump in revenues to $162.1 billion while earnings per share are projected to increase to $1.32 from $1.26 the same time a year ago. Amazon Web Services has shown dominance in the cloud computing space, so the AWS and advertising business will be in focus.

Markets are forecasting a 5% move, either up or down, for Amazon stocks post earnings.

4) Apple

Apple reports its quarterly results after the closing bell on Thursday 31st July.

It has been a rough year for Apple thus far with its share down over 15% year-to-date.

The iPhone maker is expected to report 4% revenue growth amid improving services revenue and iPhone sales. Still, investors will be looking for updates on investment in Apple Intelligence and sales in China.

Markets are forecasting a 3.5% move, either up or down, for Apple shares post earnings.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

30 Jul

Today, investors focus on the Bank of Canada meeting and the FOMC decision

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.46%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.30%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.21%. The three major US indexes ended Tuesday in the red as mixed corporate earnings reports and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision weighed on investor sentiment. Weak results from UnitedHealth (-7.5%), Boeing (-4.4%), and Merck (-1.7%) dragged the market down, while United Parcel Service and Whirlpool also slumped more than 10% following disappointing earnings and expectations. Investors also reacted to a decline in job openings and hiring in June, although consumer confidence in July came in higher than expected. Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and China ended without a final agreement, leaving hopes alive for an extension of the current tariff truce.

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged today, but markets are closely watching for signals on the future direction of policy amid signs of slowing inflation.

The Bank of Canada will also hold its policy meeting today. It is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, but the tone of the statement and the follow-up press conference will be key for markets. Recent data points to economic weakness: GDP is expected to contract for the third consecutive month, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by year-end. With slowing inflation and weakening domestic demand, the Bank of Canada may lean toward a more dovish outlook.

The IMF expects global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly above its April 2025 projections. The upgrade — by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and 0.1 percentage points for 2026 — reflects stronger-than-expected economic activity, lower-than-expected US tariff rates, improved financial conditions (partly due to a weaker US dollar), and expanded fiscal policies in several major economies. Despite the slightly improved outlook, the IMF warns that risks remain tilted to the downside. Growth projections for key economies include the US at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, the Eurozone at 1.0% and 1.2%, and the UK at 1.2% and 1.4%. China’s growth was revised upward to 4.8% and 4.2%, while Japan is expected to grow at a more modest pace of 0.7% and 0.5%.

European stock markets mostly rose yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 1.03%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.72%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) rose by 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended up 0.60%. The FTSE 100 climbed over 0.5% to a new record high, supported by strong corporate earnings and improved sentiment around the UK economy. Shares of AstraZeneca jumped 3.5% following strong Q2 results, driven by high cancer drug sales and reaffirmed guidance. Barclays also rose by 2.5% despite a mixed earnings report, as its investment banking division posted solid results, benefiting from market volatility. Optimism was further boosted by the IMF’s projection that the UK’s economic growth this year and next will outpace other major European economies.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.7% to close at $69.20 per barrel on Tuesday, reaching a five-week high and extending Monday’s 2.4% gain, as easing trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks fueled supply concerns. Additional support came from former President Trump, who increased pressure on Russia by setting a shorter deadline for progress in ending the war in Ukraine and threatening new sanctions.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.01%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HK50) declined by 0.15%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a modest gain of 0.08%.

The Australian dollar rose above the $0.651 level on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as a weaker US dollar outweighed weak domestic inflation data. In Australia, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in over four years in Q2: the headline CPI was 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.7% year-over-year. Both figures came in below expectations and within the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3% target range. The soft inflation data strengthened expectations for policy easing, with markets now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the RBA’s August meeting.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,370.86 −18.91 (−0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,632.99 −204.57 (−0.46%)

DAX (DE40) 24,217.37 +247.01 (+1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,136.32 +54.88 (+0.60%)

USD Index 98.92 +0.28 (+0.29%)

News feed for: 2025.07.30

Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada BoC Monetary Policy Statement at 16:45 (GMT+3);
Canada Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
Canada BOC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Statement (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US Fed Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+3);
US Fed Press Conference (m/m) at 21:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Jul

Precious metal prices are falling amid declining demand for safe-haven assets. The US and Thailand are close to signing a trade agreement

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) edged up by 0.02%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.36%. The US stocks were mostly flat as investors digested the new trade agreement between the US and the EU and prepared for a busy week filled with earnings reports and key economic data.

President Trump announced a tariff agreement with the EU, setting a baseline rate of 15% (lower than the previously threatened 30%) amid growing hopes for an extension of the US-China trade truce. Despite easing trade tensions, market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainty about the broader economic impact of tariffs. Attention is now shifting to earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, as well as the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, where investors will closely watch for any hints of a potential rate cut in September.

European stock markets mostly declined yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) dropped by 1.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.43%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.43%. Major European equity markets fell after an early rally driven by the US-EU trade deal. The framework agreement includes a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, as well as an EU commitment to purchase $750 billion worth of energy and additional military equipment from the US. The deal also provides selective access to key segments of the European market. While considered a better outcome than the previously threatened 30–50% tariffs proposed by Trump, lingering uncertainty over the final terms sparked concern among European leaders.

WTI crude oil prices jumped more than 2% to $66.70 per barrel on Monday amid renewed geopolitical fears after US President Donald Trump accelerated the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump warned that Russia has 10–12 days to comply or face 100% “secondary tariffs,” raising concerns over potential disruptions in oil supplies. This follows new EU sanctions, including a lower price cap on Russian oil and a ban on importing petroleum products from third countries, set to take effect in January. If fully implemented, such measures could reduce global oil supply, especially given OPEC’s limited spare capacity.

The US natural gas prices dropped to $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the lowest level since April 22, as weaker-than-expected summer heat and high production levels kept downward pressure on prices throughout July. Meanwhile, production remained high, averaging 107.2 billion cubic feet per day across the lower 48 US states in July, exceeding June’s record of 106.4 billion cubic feet per day. Inventories were about 6% above seasonal norms, reinforcing the view of an oversupplied market.

On Monday, silver prices remained under pressure, staying below $38.50 per ounce after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as recent trade deals between the US and key partners reduced demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, markets are watching for further developments in US-China trade talks, which begin today in Stockholm, with expectations that discussions will go beyond tariffs and include broader geopolitical and economic issues.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 1.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed by 0.68%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.36%.

Thailand aims to finalize trade negotiations with the US by the August 1 deadline, and US tariffs are unlikely to reach 36%, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Tuesday. Bangkok expects a “very favorable” trade deal from the Trump administration following a peace initiative that resolved the border conflict with Cambodia. In 2024, the US was Thailand’s largest export market, accounting for 18.3% of total exports, or $54.96 billion, while the US trade deficit with Thailand stood at $45.6 billion.

Hong Kong’s trade deficit widened to $58.9 billion in June 2025 from $55.7 billion in the same month last year. Exports rose by 11.9% year-over-year to $417.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports increased by 11.1% to $476.7 billion. Imports from most major suppliers showed strong growth, particularly from Vietnam (+50.6%), the United Kingdom (+44.7%), and the US (+3.9%).

S&P 500 (US500) 6,389.77 +1.13 (+0.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,837.56 −64.36 (−0.14%)

DAX (DE40) 23,970.36 −247.14 (−1.02%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,081.44 −38.87 (−0.43%)

USD Index 98.65 +1.00 (+1.03%)

News feed for: 2025.07.29

US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Jul

EUR/USD Under Seller Control: The Deal’s Consequences Could Be Severe

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair tumbled to 1.1579 by Tuesday, marking its sharpest intraday decline since 6 November last year.

The euro’s plunge followed the announcement of a new trade agreement between the US and the European Union, which imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods – a move set to significantly benefit the American economy.

European leaders reacted fiercely. France condemned the deal as one-sided, while German Chancellor Merz warned of serious risks to domestic industry. In response, Donald Trump reiterated that countries unwilling to negotiate bilateral agreements could face tariffs of 15–20%, up from the 10% rate in April.

Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which concludes on Wednesday evening. While no rate change is expected, traders will scrutinise signals of a potential September cut, especially amid mounting White House pressure and trade-related uncertainties.

Key US economic data due this week – including the Core PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls report – will offer further clues on inflation and the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, typically a reversal formation. The price has now broken below the 1.1590 support, approaching the pattern’s lower boundary. A confirmed breakdown could lead to a decline towards 1.1490, with 1.1200 as a potential medium-term target.

The MACD indicator reinforces this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward, suggesting sustained selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the hourly chart, the pair had been range-bound near 1.1645 before breaking lower, extending its downward move towards 1.1523. A pullback to retest 1.1645 (now as resistance) remains possible before any further downside.

Beyond that, the bearish trend is likely to resume, with 1.1490 acting as the next key support. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, as its signal line is below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Sellers remain firmly in control, with fundamental and technical factors both favouring further downside. A break below 1.1590 could accelerate losses, while key US data and Fed rhetoric this week may dictate near-term volatility.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Jul

S&P 500 hits an all-time high for five consecutive days. RBNZ plans rate cut at August meeting

By JustMarkets

As of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% (up +1.20% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.40% (weekly +1.33%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed up 0.23% (weekly +0.64%). On Friday, the S&P 500 reached its fifth consecutive record close, the longest streak in over a year. Trade negotiations fueled market optimism, as President Trump planned to meet with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday amid hopes of a US-EU trade deal. Agreements were also reached with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline, though talks with Canada have stalled. Strong financial results from Alphabet and Verizon boosted sentiment, while Intel weighed on the tech sector after issuing a profit warning and announcing layoffs.

European stock markets mostly declined on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 0.32% (weekly -0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) edged up 0.21% (weekly +0.11%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.13% (weekly +1.75%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended down 0.20% (weekly +1.43%). European stocks closed mostly lower as markets continued to assess recent corporate earnings reports. Schneider Electric and Airbus both fell more than 1% ahead of next week’s earnings releases, setting a negative tone for industrials. ASML and Nokia each dropped around 1.5%, with the latter continuing to slide after a pessimistic earnings report earlier in the week. On the positive side, LVMH jumped 4% after releasing its results, while Volkswagen also rose by 4% despite a negative outlook in its report, lifting the luxury goods and automotive sectors overall.

Over the weekend, the US, and EU reached a trade agreement. The deal introduces a 15% tariff on most European goods, significantly lower than the initially threatened 30% from Washington, easing concerns about a broader trade conflict. The announcement was made jointly by President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. However, key details, such as the specific industries covered and the scope of possible exemptions. remain unclear.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 1.3% on Friday, closing at $65.2 per barrel (the lowest since June 30) as concerns over weakening economic signals from the US and China pressured prices. For the week, WTI declined by about 3%, driven by signs of rising global supply and slowing business investment. The US is preparing to allow Chevron and other companies to resume limited operations in Venezuela, potentially boosting oil exports by over 200,000 barrels per day and easing shortages of heavier crude grades. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is expected to raise production at its Monday meeting, aiming to regain market share as summer demand absorbs the additional barrels.

Asian markets mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged 3.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.59%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a decline of 1.03%.

On Friday, the New Zealand dollar fell to $0.602 but remained on track for a weekly gain, supported by improved investor sentiment amid prospects of new US trade deals. Domestically, markets are pricing in a roughly 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its benchmark rate from 3.25% by 25 basis points at its August meeting, though investors suspect this may be near the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said Thursday the Central Bank is prepared to cut rates further if price pressures continue to ease, as expected.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,388.64 +25.29 (+0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,901.92 +208.01 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,217.50 −78.43 (−0.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,120.31 −18.06 (−0.20%)

USD Index 97.67 +0.30 (+0.31%)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Jul

Gold Declines as EU Strikes Trade Deal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold held steady at $3,330 per troy ounce on Monday following three consecutive days of declines. The metal faced downward pressure after news emerged of a trade agreement between the US and the EU, dampening investor interest in safe-haven assets.

On Sunday, the US and EU reached a broad trade deal, which includes a 15% tariff on most European goods, alongside commitments to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in American industry. This agreement mirrors last week’s US–Japan trade pact in structure.

Traders are now bracing for a busy week of economic events, with the Federal Reserve meeting at the centre of attention. While interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, markets will scrutinise any signals about a potential rate cut in September.

Key US labour market data will also be in focus, including JOLTS reports, ADP employment figures, and the crucial nonfarm payrolls release. Equally significant will be the PCE price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – which will indicate whether price pressures are intensifying amid new tariffs.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The H4 chart shows XAU/USD forming a broad consolidation range around 3,375. After breaking downward today, the market reached its local downside target at 3,318. Following this, we anticipate a possible upward correction towards 3,375 (testing from below), before a renewed decline towards 3,312. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has achieved its local decline target at 3,318. Currently, an upward impulse is forming towards 3,349. A consolidation range near 3,346 may develop, with an upside breakout potentially extending gains to 3,375. Thereafter, a new downward wave towards 3,312 could emerge. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, as its signal line is above 50 and rising sharply towards 80.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid shifting global trade dynamics, with technical indicators suggesting further volatility ahead. Traders should monitor key US data releases and signals from the Fed for directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

27 Jul

Currency Speculators cut their British Pound Bets to 22-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (5,942 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,751 contracts), the Japanese Yen (3,063 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,685 contracts), Bitcoin (634 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (214 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-28,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,797 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,336 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,428 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-2,706 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator Bets fall to 22-Week Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculators data is the sharp drop in the British Pound Sterling speculator bets.

The GBP speculator positions fell this week by -28,621 contracts and dropped for the second straight week. This was also the fifth time over the last six weeks that speculators have reduced their positioning for a 6-week drop by -51,064 contracts. This week’s decline marked the largest one-week drop in just about a year and takes the current speculator standing (+570 contracts) to the lowest level since February 18th, a span of 22 weeks.

Helping dent the speculator position for the British Pound Sterling is the outlook that the Bank of England could be reducing their benchmark interest rates. According to Reuters, traders see around an 80% chance of an interest rate reduction as early as August.

Despite the negative sentiment this week for the British Pound Sterling, the currency’s exchange rate continues to be near the highest levels since 2022 against the US dollar. This week, the GBP currency closed just below the 1.3500 level and saw a modest gain for the week.

Elsewhere in currency market prices:
– The Euro led the major market prices with an increase of over 1% against the US Dollar this week.
– The Mexican Peso, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen all saw higher exchange rates against the USD, varying from 0.75% to 1% gains.
– The US Dollar Index was the leading loser on the week with a decline of -0.84%.
– Bitcoin also saw a very modest small decline after recent all-time highs.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (80 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent), New Zealand Dollar (61 percent) and the Mexican Peso (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (80.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (79.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (57.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.2 percent)
Bitcoin (13.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the EuroFX (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-11 percent), the US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (12.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.4 percent)
Bitcoin (3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	37.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	25.9	9.7
– Net Position:	-3,451	3,988	-537
– Gross Longs:	16,925	13,234	2,946
– Gross Shorts:	20,376	9,246	3,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.2	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	55.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	76.7	5.2
– Net Position:	125,515	-177,713	52,198
– Gross Longs:	248,380	469,100	96,216
– Gross Shorts:	122,865	646,813	44,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.0	-12.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	34.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	37.7	13.8
– Net Position:	570	-5,739	5,169
– Gross Longs:	93,760	67,928	32,179
– Gross Shorts:	93,190	73,667	27,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	22.7	-7.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 106,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	32.4	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	69.9	10.5
– Net Position:	106,645	-117,360	10,715
– Gross Longs:	164,411	101,532	43,676
– Gross Shorts:	57,766	218,892	32,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	21.3	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.0	-31.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	69.0	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	34.0	20.7
– Net Position:	-26,065	26,431	-366
– Gross Longs:	8,087	52,184	15,305
– Gross Shorts:	34,152	25,753	15,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	42.6	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.7	-7.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	70.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	34.5	12.4
– Net Position:	-70,343	71,510	-1,167
– Gross Longs:	23,086	140,760	23,647
– Gross Shorts:	93,429	69,250	24,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	43.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-8.3	-8.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	65.1	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	17.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-81,255	77,341	3,914
– Gross Longs:	25,066	105,142	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	106,321	27,801	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	76.0	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.1	-6.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	51.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	43.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-3,162	3,291	-129
– Gross Longs:	11,955	22,656	4,276
– Gross Shorts:	15,117	19,365	4,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	37.8	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.7	-7.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	37.6	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	72.6	1.7
– Net Position:	56,064	-60,340	4,276
– Gross Longs:	99,081	64,766	7,251
– Gross Shorts:	43,017	125,106	2,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	43.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.9	6.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	31.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	63.0	1.1
– Net Position:	25,857	-29,388	3,531
– Gross Longs:	58,202	29,484	4,575
– Gross Shorts:	32,345	58,872	1,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	33.0	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.8	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.4	5.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.4	1.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,852	1,247	605
– Gross Longs:	24,447	1,659	1,710
– Gross Shorts:	26,299	412	1,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	84.4	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.0	17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 Jul

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Silver, Sugar & 5-Year top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 22nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain by 13 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 8,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,905 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Silver speculator level resides at a 92 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 60,620 net contracts this week with a slight uptick by 1,172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise by 20 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 30,728 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,164 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position is next in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Palladium speculator level sits at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost by 26 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -2,300 net contracts this week with a gain of 1,281 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 85 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -6 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 108,858 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,413 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the 5-Year speculator level at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week. The overall speculator position was -2,469,924 net contracts this week with an increase by 35,604 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -12 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -59,729 net contracts this week with a change of -7,630 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year

The Ultra 10-Year speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Ultra 10-Year speculator level resides at a 4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -393,327 net contracts this week with a decrease of -14,211 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -10 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -73,578 net contracts this week with a gain of 6,164 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the USD Index speculator level sits at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -11 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -3,451 net contracts this week with a edge higher by 214 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

27 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to highest since March

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (39,923 contracts) with Platinum (1,373 contracts), Palladium (1,281 contracts), Silver (1,172 contracts) and Steel (112 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Copper with a dip by -902 contracts.

Gold Speculator Bets rise to highest since March

The gold speculator position rose this week for a fourth consecutive week and for the eighth time in the past ten weeks. This week’s boost by +39,923 contracts marked the highest one-week gain in over a year and brings the 10-week advance by speculator bets to over +91,000 contracts.

This boost in speculator bets for gold puts the current speculator net position, currently at +253,038 contracts, at the highest level in the past 18 weeks, dating back to March 18th.

Major metals prices this week were mixed

– Copper rose by over 3% for the week.
– Steel went higher by over 1.3%.
– Silver also saw just a small gain.
– Gold was down by -0.32%.
– Palladium and Platinum fell by almost -2% over the past week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (92 percent) and Palladium (87 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (76.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.2 percent)
Silver (91.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.3 percent)
Copper (70.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (71.2 percent)
Platinum (64.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (61.6 percent)
Palladium (87.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.6 percent)
Steel (68.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.7 percent)

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (26 percent) and Gold (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Copper (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (24.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (-7.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-1.7 percent)
Copper (12.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.5 percent)
Platinum (-14.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.8 percent)
Palladium (26.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (27.9 percent)
Steel (9.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 253,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 39,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.7	15.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	73.4	5.1
– Net Position:	253,038	-282,337	29,299
– Gross Longs:	311,949	76,726	54,052
– Gross Shorts:	58,911	359,063	24,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.3	20.7	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-21.5	-20.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	21.2	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	66.8	7.7
– Net Position:	60,620	-79,227	18,607
– Gross Longs:	85,678	36,803	31,942
– Gross Shorts:	25,058	116,030	13,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	7.4	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	7.1	-2.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	29.0	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	46.8	6.6
– Net Position:	39,822	-40,614	792
– Gross Longs:	77,637	66,215	15,779
– Gross Shorts:	37,815	106,829	14,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	35.4	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-8.9	-19.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.8	19.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	46.1	7.4
– Net Position:	20,675	-24,025	3,350
– Gross Longs:	55,180	17,773	10,028
– Gross Shorts:	34,505	41,798	6,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	39.1	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	17.6	-17.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	35.3	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.2	30.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-2,300	952	1,348
– Gross Longs:	8,991	7,341	3,155
– Gross Shorts:	11,291	6,389	1,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.2	4.5	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.3	-27.6	5.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	69.1	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	72.1	0.8
– Net Position:	550	-788	238
– Gross Longs:	6,614	18,476	459
– Gross Shorts:	6,064	19,264	221
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	31.4	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-10.3	8.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

27 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (51,208 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (47,265 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (35,604 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (22,843 contracts) and the SOFR 3-Months (7,373 contracts) also showing higher weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 1-Month (-14,444 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-14,211 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-3,725 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-219 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds prices slightly up

The bond market prices on the week saw the longer U.S. Treasury bonds trending higher with gains of over 1%.

The 10-year Notes were higher by almost half a percent, while the 5-year, the 2-year, the Fed funds, and the 3-month overnight financing rate bonds were slightly higher on the week.

The 1-month secured overnight financing rate was the only bond with a weekly fall.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (84 percent) and the Fed Funds (65 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (2 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (64.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (64.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (17.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (43.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (40.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (54.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (84.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (28.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (31.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (35.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.1 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (34 percent) and the Fed Funds (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 1-Month (-22 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-11.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-1.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-10.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-21.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-31.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (33.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.9 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	60.5	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	64.1	1.9
– Net Position:	54,525	-77,029	22,504
– Gross Longs:	440,499	1,303,752	62,363
– Gross Shorts:	385,974	1,380,781	39,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	28.0	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.7	-31.0	12.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -479,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -487,148 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	59.3	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	55.0	0.6
– Net Position:	-479,775	495,967	-16,192
– Gross Longs:	1,471,092	6,885,623	57,425
– Gross Shorts:	1,950,867	6,389,656	73,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.5	65.2	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-32.2	-14.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -163,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	68.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	57.7	0.1
– Net Position:	-163,451	159,069	4,382
– Gross Longs:	185,699	1,011,197	6,250
– Gross Shorts:	349,150	852,128	1,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	70.6	75.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	19.8	17.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,248,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 51,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,299,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	77.2	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	51.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,248,652	1,115,887	132,765
– Gross Longs:	627,208	3,380,466	253,553
– Gross Shorts:	1,875,860	2,264,579	120,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.1	81.0	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	5.7	0.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,469,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,505,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	51.1	3.8
– Net Position:	-2,469,924	2,290,033	179,891
– Gross Longs:	488,633	5,860,765	447,110
– Gross Shorts:	2,958,557	3,570,732	267,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	97.1	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-0.7	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -749,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -772,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	63.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-749,534	660,277	89,257
– Gross Longs:	567,973	3,730,048	428,586
– Gross Shorts:	1,317,507	3,069,771	339,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	53.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	2.0	3.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -393,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -379,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	79.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	60.3	12.2
– Net Position:	-393,327	463,537	-70,210
– Gross Longs:	251,816	1,920,013	223,556
– Gross Shorts:	645,143	1,456,476	293,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	98.3	48.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	12.6	-19.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -82,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 47,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	76.3	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	76.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-82,879	-6,243	89,122
– Gross Longs:	160,579	1,368,819	234,183
– Gross Shorts:	243,458	1,375,062	145,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	37.1	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	0.9	-0.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	81.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	69.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-232,343	233,192	-849
– Gross Longs:	146,260	1,589,126	183,117
– Gross Shorts:	378,603	1,355,934	183,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	31.5	14.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	7.6	8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

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