InvestMacro

Will Northern Ireland protocol boost business investment in UK?

By George Prior

The deal on the Northern Ireland protocol today will help “significantly revive” business investment into the UK from global investors, says the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The bullish observation from deVere Group chief executive Nigel Green comes as Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled a Brexit deal with the EU on Monday that aims to overhaul Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit trading arrangements, brings a bitter dispute between the two sides to an end, restores devolved government in Belfast, and eases concerns from the US about the Northern Ireland situation.

The deVere CEO says: “Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, and the intense political wranglings it has caused, business investment into the UK from global investors has faltered.

“The possibility of an all-out trade war between the UK and the EU, plus the multifaceted political fallout, has triggered major uncertainty – which investors avoided due to the risks involved. Companies are never going to heavily invest where there are high levels of uncertainty.

“This deal will help unleash business investment that has been held back by global investors.”

Brexit has been the direct cause of £29bn in business investment being lost and fuelled the slowdown in productivity, according to a Bank of England interest rate setter.

Jonathan Haskel noted the lack of business investment growth since the Brexit referendum was equivalent to 1.3% of UK gross domestic product (GDP).

“The deal announced on Monday settles the dispute that has been raging since 2021 when the UK left the EU single market and customs union through changes to the workings of the Northern Ireland protocol, which was part of the Brexit agreement signed by Boris Johnson back in 2019,” says Nigel Green.

“We expect this new development will help significantly revive business investment into the UK from global investors.”

The deVere Group CEO also notes that the British pound is likely to be given a much-needed bounce now a political agreement between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland protocol has been reached.

“We expect the pound will enjoy a bounce amid hopes for improved trading relations between the UK and the EU, which bolsters investor sentiment on Britain’s economic outlook.”

Since Brexit, the pound has been out of favour with FX traders, with the UK currency falling nearly 18% against a basket of currencies since the referendum.

It has also been dragged down in recent months by fears over slowing economic growth and multi-decades high inflation.

“We could now be heading past peak pound pessimism.”

The deVere Group CEO concludes: “Investors need certainty to invest. This deal on the Northern Ireland protocol helps bring that back.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Feb

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 27.02.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the support level, Gold has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern. The instrument may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the correction might be 1825.00. Upon testing the resistance level, the price might bounce off it and continue the downtrend. However, the quotes may fall to 1790.50 without any correction.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Harami reversal pattern. The instrument may now go by the signal in a descending wave. The goal of the decline might be 0.6100. Upon breaking away the support level, the quotes might continue the downtrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.6185 before falling.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. The instrument may now go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the pull back can be the resistance level of 1.2000. However, the price may pull back to 1.1865 and continue the downtrend without any correction.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Feb

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.02.27

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0591
Prev Close: 1.0544
% chg. over the last day: -0.44 %

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by +0.6% month-over-month in January, higher than the +0.4% expected. Friday’s PCE data showed that the fight against inflation is not over and that the final interest rate looks set to reach 5.39-5.5% in the summer of 2023. This suggests three additional 25 basis point hikes. A higher peak in borrowing costs supports Treasury bond yields, which in turn drives the dollar index higher. This fundamental picture puts downward pressure on EUR/USD quotes, and the current trend may continue at least until mid-spring.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0544
Resistance levels: 1.0626, 1.0704, 1.0804, 1.0906, 1.0926, 1.0967, 1.1017, 1.1077

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages but reached the daily support level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the divergence is still observed on many time frames. In the coming days, traders should expect a corrective upward movement. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0544, subject to confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell positions can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0626, but it is better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the resistance level of 1.0704 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.02.27:

– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2011
Prev Close: 1.1939
% chg. over the last day: -0.60 %

For the British pound, the Brexit deal between the UK and Northern Ireland will be the focus this week. Rishi Sunak is very close to an agreement between the countries and if it is agreed by both sides, it should be positive for the pound. But traders should understand that this will only be a short-term strengthening as headwinds persist, even though British consumers have become more optimistic about current finances and the outlook for the economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1929, 1.1875
Resistance levels: 1.2041, 1.2147, 1.2200, 1.2267, 1.2311, 1.2416

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hour time frame is bearish. At the moment the price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and sellers’ pressure is still present. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1929 or 1.1875 if the price fails even lower. Sell trades are best sought from the resistance level of 1.2041, but better with confirmation in the form of an initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2200 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 134.68
Prev Close: 136.48
% chg. over the last day: +1.33 %

Expectations for a more hawkish Bank of Japan stance are disappearing. Incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cooled down rumors of an earlier end to super-soft monetary policy, helping USD/JPY to strengthen. Ueda’s remarks on Friday left the door open for an adjustment in yield curve control (YCC) in the future, but he said the central bank should maintain an ultra-easy policy to support the economy. On Saturday, current BoJ head Haruhiko Kuroda also indicated that the central bank will continue with its stimulative policy and that high inflation is due to imports. Thus, the Japanese Yen is again under pressure from the dollar index.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.04, 133.47, 132.95, 131.43, 129.68, 129.98, 129.19
Resistance levels: 136.49, 137.48

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. At the moment the price is trading above the moving averages, but the daily resistance level is not letting the price move further. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but signs of divergence are still observed on several time frames. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought from the support level of 135.04, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be sought from 136.49, but with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes below the 132.95 support level, the downtrend will be resumed with a high probability.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3540
Prev Close: 1.3606
% chg. over the last day: +0.49 %

Volatility in the currency market surged last week as US Treasury bond yields soared on expectations that the Federal Reserve would be forced to continue actively tightening monetary policy to tame high inflationary pressures. The move strengthened the US dollar against most of its peers while putting pressure on commodities. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the drop in oil prices on the back of a rising dollar shows growth in the USD/CAD quotes. But over the next 2 weeks, oil quotes may see growth as analysts expect a recovery in demand from China, which is the largest oil importer.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3595, 1.3555, 1.3469, 1.3390, 1.3347, 1.3295, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3555, 1.3538, 1.3595

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. At the moment, the price is above the moving averages. Indicator MACD has become positive, the pressure of buyers remains. Under such market conditions, it is worth looking for purchases with the expectation of continued growth. Buy orders may be considered from the support level of 1.3595 or 1.3555, but with additional confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 1.3700, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3469, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Feb

In the US, there is an increase in price pressure. The Fed will continue to raise rates until the summer

By JustMarkets

The January PCE data released Friday, one of the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators, showed an unexpected increase in price pressures. The PCE index rose by 0.6% in the last month, and the annual rate was 5.4%. This is negative data, indicating that inflationary pressures remain high. Thus, Fed policymakers have no choice but to maintain an aggressive stance longer. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.02 (-2.55% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.05% (-2.63% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.69% on Friday (-3.25% for the week).

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that the latest inflation report is consistent with the fact that policymakers need to “do a little more” to make sure inflation is down. Her Boston colleague, Susan Collins, said the Central Bank needs to keep raising rates to get them to a restrictive level, and the Fed may have to hold them at that level for an “extended” period.

Strong labor market data combined with persistently elevated price pressures have increased expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cap, raising it to 5.39%, which suggests three additional 25 basis point hikes during the spring and summer. The higher peak in borrowing costs is supporting Treasury yields, which in turn is driving the dollar index higher and stock indices lower. And the current dynamics are unlikely to change anytime soon.

The Bank of Canada predicts that inflation in the country will fall to about 3% by mid-2023 and fall back to the 2% target in 2024. Most private sector economists also forecast similar numbers. But the forecasts come with a major caveat: Canada must be protected from unexpected global events that could cause a new rise in inflation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. German DAX (DE30) shed by 1.72% (-2.03% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.78% (-2.36% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 0.11% (-1.40% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) fell by 0.37% (-1.57% for the week).

On March 16, the ECB will almost certainly raise the interest rate by 0.5%. And it is already in the price. But what is important is how the ECB will behave at the next meetings. Analysts believe that another likely decline in the overall level of inflation in the euro area caused by energy is unlikely to reassure ECB policymakers, as core price pressures are still elevated. Deutsche Bank analysts are now forecasting the ECB rate to peak at 3.75% in June. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau tried to refute such expectations. Still, his German colleague Joachim Nagel said Friday he did not rule out further “significant” rate hikes after March.

The United Kingdom marked the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with new sanctions against Russia. A ban on Russian iron and steel products followed the ban on oil exports. The British government also said it would target aircraft parts, radio equipment, and electronic components. This could severely damage Russian airlines, which mostly have European and American planes. The US would also impose a 200 percent duty on all imports of Russian-made aluminum, which could affect global supply chains. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned China and other countries against providing material support to Russia, saying any such action would amount to sanctions evasion and would “prove very serious consequences.”

Gold prices were under pressure last week due to the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger US dollar. Gold and silver are inversely correlated to government bond yields. In periods of rising interest rates, government bond yields are rising, putting downward pressure on precious metals. For the resumption of a trend for gold and silver, it is necessary that government bond yields at least stop rising and, at the most, start to fall. And for that, the US Federal Reserve should stop tightening its policy. Considering the time lag, the bullish trend in gold will return when the market is dominated by the sentiment that the US Federal Reserve is about to “press pause.” And that won’t happen until late spring or early summer.

Asian markets mostly declined last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.11% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.25%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was down by 2.61%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 0.54% for the week.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called on the country’s major banks to raise deposit rates for depositors amid fears that higher interest rates are being passed on entirely to borrowers. The country’s competition watchdog began investigating the issue this month, saying that the deposit interest rate hikes were “smaller and less consistent” than the mortgage interest rate hikes. This means that ordinary people in Australia are caught on two fronts. This has also led to criticism of RBA Governor Philip Lowe, whose term expires in September, and there is a high chance Lowe will not be re-elected.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+13.71%), gasoline (+7.24%), orange juice (+6.36%), lumber (+4.82%), and cotton (+4.36%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on wheat (-7.31%), palladium (-6.4%), silver (-4.49%), corn (-4.17%), and copper (-3.7%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,970.04 −42.28 (−1.05%)

Dow Jones (US30)32,816.92 −336.99 (−1.02%)

DAX (DE40) 15,209.74 −265.95 (−1.72%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,878.66 −29.06 (−0.37%)

USD Index 105.26 +0.66 (+0.63%)

Important events for today:

– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Feb

Trade Of The Week: AUDUSD Gearing Up For Bearish Breakout?

By ForexTime

The past few weeks have certainly not been kind to the Australian Dollar.

It has weakened against every single G10 currency month-to-date despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish outlook. At the start of the month, the central bank raised its cash rate by 25bp to 3.35%, which was the highest level in over 10 years. However, the Aussie had shed roughly 5% against the dollar with prices wobbling above key support at 0.6700 as of writing.

Concerns remain elevated over the Australian economy thanks to slowing growth and rising interest rates. The country is still entangled in a fierce battle against soaring inflation with the annual rate climbing to 7.8% in Q4 2022 – its highest level since the first quarter in 1990. Given how stubbornly high inflation will most likely force RBA hawks to act further, recession risks are seen rising this year.

Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the AUDUSD remains under pressure on the monthly timeframe. The bearish engulfing candlestick formation signals further downside, with a strong bearish breakdown below 0.6700 opening the doors to lower levels.

The low down…

The AUDUSD has become a battleground for RBA & Fed hawks.

Although both central banks are hawkish, price action suggests that the Fed is winning the tug of war as mounting hike concerns and strong US economic data empower dollar bulls. Looking back at the RBA minutes, the central bank considered raising rates by 50bps before eventually proceeding with a 25bp hike in February. Despite the hawkish messaging and indication of more interest rate increases, Aussie bulls have failed to draw any major support.

On the other hand, the dollar has appreciated against every single G10 currency in February thanks to not only the robust jobs data but sticky inflation figures and repeatedly hawkish comments from Fed officials. Given how market expectations are currently elevated over US rates remaining higher for longer, this has boosted buying sentiment towards the USD in the short term. According to Bloomberg, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp in March, April, and June before the hiking cycle comes to an end.

Big week for Australian Dollar

We could see some increased volatility on the AUD this week due to key economic reports.

Much attention will be directed toward the latest retail sales figures on Tuesday which could offer fresh insight into the health of the Australian economy. Given how consumption accounts for a handsome share of overall economic activity, this report could spark some action on the AUDUSD. Back in December, retail sales fell by 3.9% amid high cost-of-living pressures. Sales are forecast to rebound by 1.5% in January 2023.

The major risk event and potential market shaker for the AUD could be the GDP figures for the final quarter of 2022. Economic growth expanded by 5.9% in the third quarter of 2022 with markets projecting GDP to weaken to an annual rate of 2.7%. This major economic release also coincides with the latest monthly CPI figures which are expected to remain hot. In December, inflation rose to 8.4% with markets expecting prices to slightly cool to 8.1% in January. If not only the retail sales figures and GDP data disappoint, this may fuel recession fears – especially if inflation remains hot. A positive set of figures could boost buying sentiment towards the Aussie and soothe growth concerns, as the RBA continues to tackle rampant inflation.

Outside of Australia, the dollar may be influenced by the latest US consumer confidence, ISM Manufacturing, and weekly jobless claims data published this week.

AUDUSD wobbles above key support

It looks like the AUDUSD could be gearing up for a bearish breakdown if 0.6700 proves to be unreliable support. A strong daily close below this level may encourage a decline toward 0.6600 and 0.6420, respectively. Should prices experience a rebound from 0.6700, the next key level of interest can be found at 0.6870 – a level above not only the 50 but 200-day Simple Moving Average.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Feb

COT Currencies: January 31st data shows Speculators raised Euro & New Zealand Dollar bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher through January 31st as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (16,160 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (6,212 contracts), Canadian Dollar (528 contracts), British Pound (5,617 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,470 contracts), Australian Dollar (2,579 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,194 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,374 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,575 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets for that week were the Brazilian Real (-1,188 contracts) and Bitcoin (-362 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	38,140	41	16,537	53	-19,776	44	3,239	52
EUR	796,738	100	150,509	81	-203,589	18	53,080	64
GBP	196,113	35	-18,317	53	28,668	54	-10,351	38
JPY	168,540	31	-20,060	57	18,179	45	1,881	57
CHF	38,345	30	-8,314	33	11,816	64	-3,502	46
CAD	140,167	24	-30,184	6	27,637	92	2,547	35
AUD	136,304	34	-30,592	56	23,162	36	7,430	71
NZD	34,587	17	8,386	77	-8,813	26	427	57
MXN	285,481	90	-45,270	9	40,804	89	4,466	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	72,096	70	21,597	69	-22,343	32	746	70
Bitcoin	17,542	94	-1,799	46	920	0	879	33

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (77 percent) led the currency markets that week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Japanese Yen (57 percent) and the Australian Dollar (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Swiss Franc (33 percent) and Bitcoin (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (50.2 percent)
EuroFX (81.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (53.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (56.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (55.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (29.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (54.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (76.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (60.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (70.3 percent)
Bitcoin (45.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.9 percent)

Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (21 percent) and the Japanese Yen (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for the currencies. The New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Mexican Peso (4 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-37 percent) led the downside trend scores with the Swiss Franc (-11 percent), British Pound (-11 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-17.7 percent)
EuroFX (2.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-11.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (3.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-36.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-24.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 16,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly gain of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.6	2.7	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	54.6	8.0
– Net Position:	16,537	-19,776	3,239
– Gross Longs:	29,221	1,042	6,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,684	20,818	3,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	44.4	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.7	-2.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 150,509 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 16,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	55.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	80.9	5.3
– Net Position:	150,509	-203,589	53,080
– Gross Longs:	246,755	440,756	95,671
– Gross Shorts:	96,246	644,345	42,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	18.3	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-5.0	14.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -18,317 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 5,617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	66.5	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	51.9	17.7
– Net Position:	-18,317	28,668	-10,351
– Gross Longs:	36,234	130,370	24,459
– Gross Shorts:	54,551	101,702	34,810
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	53.6	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.9	-6.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -20,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	67.9	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	57.1	17.3
– Net Position:	-20,060	18,179	1,881
– Gross Longs:	22,550	114,423	31,108
– Gross Shorts:	42,610	96,244	29,227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	44.5	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-13.4	13.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -8,314 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 1,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	55.1	30.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	24.2	39.3
– Net Position:	-8,314	11,816	-3,502
– Gross Longs:	5,664	21,109	11,549
– Gross Shorts:	13,978	9,293	15,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	64.5	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.0	-8.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -30,184 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	55.1	23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	35.4	22.0
– Net Position:	-30,184	27,637	2,547
– Gross Longs:	26,404	77,299	33,382
– Gross Shorts:	56,588	49,662	30,835
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	91.8	35.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.9	-2.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -30,592 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly gain of 2,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	53.4	18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	36.4	12.6
– Net Position:	-30,592	23,162	7,430
– Gross Longs:	36,337	72,741	24,573
– Gross Shorts:	66,929	49,579	17,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	36.1	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.4	28.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 8,386 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 6,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	39.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	65.3	12.3
– Net Position:	8,386	-8,813	427
– Gross Longs:	15,376	13,762	4,674
– Gross Shorts:	6,990	22,575	4,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	25.7	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-2.5	-11.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -45,270 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 3,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.0	41.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.8	27.6	1.2
– Net Position:	-45,270	40,804	4,466
– Gross Longs:	156,950	119,480	7,841
– Gross Shorts:	202,220	78,676	3,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	89.2	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.9	-6.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of 21,597 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -1,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	39.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	70.5	4.2
– Net Position:	21,597	-22,343	746
– Gross Longs:	39,609	28,490	3,776
– Gross Shorts:	18,012	50,833	3,030
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	31.7	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-19.5	-8.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing for the week equaled a net position of -1,799 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	7.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.8	2.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,799	920	879
– Gross Longs:	13,599	1,293	1,635
– Gross Shorts:	15,398	373	756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	100.0	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	76.3	9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Feb

COT Metals Update: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC’s up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date soon.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower on January 31st as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (2,608 contracts) with Silver (1,632 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-4,124 contracts), Copper (-2,955 contracts) and Palladium (-974 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	471,642	16	160,281	36	-180,520	63	20,239	31
Silver	138,263	14	27,316	44	-40,434	57	13,118	37
Copper	224,824	61	17,215	50	-24,414	48	7,199	67
Palladium	11,245	34	-4,271	0	4,632	100	-361	20
Platinum	69,121	40	16,137	33	-22,213	65	6,076	49

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (50 percent) led the metals markets for that week. Silver (44 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) came in at the lowest strength level and was in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (35.0 percent)
Silver (44.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.4 percent)
Copper (50.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.4 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.4 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (13 percent) led the six weeks trends for metals. Gold (10 percent) was the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-17 percent) led the downside trend scores with Platinum (-12 percent) and Silver (-2.7 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.6 percent)
Silver (-2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.2 percent)
Copper (13.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.9 percent)
Palladium (-17.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 160,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly increase of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	25.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	63.7	5.0
– Net Position:	160,281	-180,520	20,239
– Gross Longs:	256,417	120,147	43,984
– Gross Shorts:	96,136	300,667	23,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	63.4	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-11.7	16.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 27,316 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 1,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	34.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	64.0	8.4
– Net Position:	27,316	-40,434	13,118
– Gross Longs:	54,867	47,997	24,665
– Gross Shorts:	27,551	88,431	11,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	57.0	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.1	13.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 17,215 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -2,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	36.3	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	47.2	5.6
– Net Position:	17,215	-24,414	7,199
– Gross Longs:	85,410	81,694	19,764
– Gross Shorts:	68,195	106,108	12,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	48.1	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-16.2	25.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of 16,137 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -4,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.8	33.0	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	65.1	3.6
– Net Position:	16,137	-22,213	6,076
– Gross Longs:	35,098	22,808	8,577
– Gross Shorts:	18,961	45,021	2,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.5	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	10.0	8.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -4,271 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly reduction of -974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	63.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	22.2	14.2
– Net Position:	-4,271	4,632	-361
– Gross Longs:	1,792	7,131	1,238
– Gross Shorts:	6,063	2,499	1,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	19.5	-19.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

25 Feb

COT Bonds: January 31st data shows Speculators cut back on their bond bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were sharply lower for that week as just one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds with a gain of 15,702 contracts.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-100,142 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-94,219 contracts), Ultra Treasury Bonds (-17,997 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7,222 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (-3,260 contracts), the Eurodollar (-12,402 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-13,650 contracts) also registering lower bets through January 31st.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,879,918	0	-1,026,275	34	1,226,679	63	-200,404	60
FedFunds	1,889,652	79	-20,128	37	50,487	66	-30,359	0
2-Year	2,428,703	29	-577,165	1	552,882	94	24,283	63
Long T-Bond	1,226,430	48	-199,076	20	172,835	72	26,241	73
10-Year	4,151,853	75	-555,471	0	623,943	96	-68,472	64
5-Year	4,177,919	61	-732,956	0	722,945	94	10,011	84

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (37 percent) and the Eurodollar (34 percent) led the bond markets for that week. The US Treasury Bonds (20 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent), 2-Year Bond (1.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (19.8 percent) came in with the lowest strength levels and all were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (37.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (19.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
Eurodollar (34.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.5 percent)

Fed Funds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (8 percent) and the Eurodollar (2 percent) led the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-32 percent) led the downside trend scores with the 10-Year Bonds (-32 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (8.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-10.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-32.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-6.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-31.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
Eurodollar (1.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (11.1 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -1,026,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -12,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,013,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	68.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,026,275	1,226,679	-200,404
– Gross Longs:	480,357	4,023,635	289,015
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,632	2,796,956	489,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	63.1	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-1.8	3.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -20,128 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 15,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	75.9	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	73.3	3.4
– Net Position:	-20,128	50,487	-30,359
– Gross Longs:	185,358	1,435,042	34,298
– Gross Shorts:	205,486	1,384,555	64,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	66.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-5.1	-55.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -577,165 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -100,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -477,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	83.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	60.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-577,165	552,882	24,283
– Gross Longs:	163,860	2,027,636	198,658
– Gross Shorts:	741,025	1,474,754	174,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	94.3	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	6.6	12.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -732,956 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decrease of -94,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -638,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	84.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	67.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-732,956	722,945	10,011
– Gross Longs:	224,985	3,538,717	340,298
– Gross Shorts:	957,941	2,815,772	330,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.2	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	0.6	17.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -555,471 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decrease of -13,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -541,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	79.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.8	10.1
– Net Position:	-555,471	623,943	-68,472
– Gross Longs:	367,733	3,313,634	349,227
– Gross Shorts:	923,204	2,689,691	417,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	96.0	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.4	23.7	9.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -133,133 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -7,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	78.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	62.4	17.3
– Net Position:	-133,133	233,431	-100,298
– Gross Longs:	148,741	1,144,072	152,412
– Gross Shorts:	281,874	910,641	252,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	9.8	-9.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -199,076 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -3,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -195,816 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	80.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	66.2	11.9
– Net Position:	-199,076	172,835	26,241
– Gross Longs:	58,575	984,869	172,662
– Gross Shorts:	257,651	812,034	146,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	72.2	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	23.6	-6.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing for the week recorded a net position of -433,360 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly fall of -17,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -415,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.4	85.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	58.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-433,360	393,878	39,482
– Gross Longs:	48,954	1,234,463	162,321
– Gross Shorts:	482,314	840,585	122,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	39.8	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

25 Feb

COT Soft Commodities: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher for the week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (61,988 contracts), Soybeans (23,176 contracts), Coffee (20,847 contracts), Corn (19,443 contracts), Live Cattle (10,995 contracts), Wheat (8,260 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,045 contracts) and Cocoa (218 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Lean Hogs (-6,760 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-7,879 contracts) and Cotton (-928 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,726,378	29	243,820	10	-266,622	89	22,802	37
Gold	471,642	16	160,281	36	-180,520	63	20,239	31
Silver	138,263	14	27,316	44	-40,434	57	13,118	37
Copper	224,824	61	17,215	50	-24,414	48	7,199	67
Palladium	11,245	34	-4,271	0	4,632	100	-361	20
Platinum	69,121	40	16,137	33	-22,213	65	6,076	49
Natural Gas	1,146,709	38	-169,214	24	134,013	76	35,201	63
Brent	156,929	16	-43,407	26	39,572	70	3,835	61
Heating Oil	265,444	22	21,747	74	-45,428	23	23,681	80
Soybeans	689,806	25	178,398	67	-137,153	46	-41,245	1
Corn	1,298,164	14	296,812	68	-225,622	40	-71,190	2
Coffee	221,894	29	-1,881	25	-926	75	2,807	39
Sugar	995,391	55	247,072	79	-292,448	19	45,376	64
Wheat	350,871	29	-40,060	7	41,564	90	-1,504	100

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (96 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) led the softs markets for the week. Live Cattle (76 percent), Corn (68 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Cotton (20 percent) and the Soybean Oil (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.5 percent)
Sugar (78.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.6 percent)
Coffee (25.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybeans (66.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (96.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.3 percent)
Live Cattle (76.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.6 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.5 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Live Cattle & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (26 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) led the six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) led the downside trend scores with Soybean Oil (-23 percent), Wheat (-3 percent) and Cotton (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.3 percent)
Sugar (4.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.5 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-41.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-34.2 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 296,812 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 19,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 277,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	42.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	59.4	14.4
– Net Position:	296,812	-225,622	-71,190
– Gross Longs:	407,766	545,068	115,712
– Gross Shorts:	110,954	770,690	186,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	39.8	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.5	-20.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 247,072 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 61,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	39.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	68.5	5.7
– Net Position:	247,072	-292,448	45,376
– Gross Longs:	333,718	389,834	102,320
– Gross Shorts:	86,646	682,282	56,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.3	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-2.7	-5.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -1,881 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 20,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	46.2	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	46.6	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,881	-926	2,807
– Gross Longs:	45,937	102,565	10,630
– Gross Shorts:	47,818	103,491	7,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	75.0	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-4.7	31.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 178,398 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 23,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	46.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	66.7	12.6
– Net Position:	178,398	-137,153	-41,245
– Gross Longs:	222,823	323,166	45,644
– Gross Shorts:	44,425	460,319	86,889
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.8	46.3	1.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-14.8	-14.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 31,371 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -7,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.5	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	61.2	7.0
– Net Position:	31,371	-36,797	5,426
– Gross Longs:	77,553	223,986	35,438
– Gross Shorts:	46,182	260,783	30,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.0	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	24.7	-22.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 157,830 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 8,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	33.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.0	73.9	7.3
– Net Position:	157,830	-173,741	15,911
– Gross Longs:	174,746	141,045	47,162
– Gross Shorts:	16,916	314,786	31,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.0	5.7	15.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-5.3	-31.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 77,223 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly boost of 10,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	28.2	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	51.5	12.4
– Net Position:	77,223	-72,958	-4,265
– Gross Longs:	126,874	88,274	34,568
– Gross Shorts:	49,651	161,232	38,833
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	13.4	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.0	-27.2	-5.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -3,594 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -6,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	36.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	35.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-3,594	3,412	182
– Gross Longs:	67,149	78,668	25,530
– Gross Shorts:	70,743	75,256	25,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.9	31.6	60.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 16,905 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	47.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	57.3	5.4
– Net Position:	16,905	-20,488	3,583
– Gross Longs:	61,398	100,108	14,890
– Gross Shorts:	44,493	120,596	11,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	78.7	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-1.2	7.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 25,159 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	47.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	56.6	3.2
– Net Position:	25,159	-27,818	2,659
– Gross Longs:	93,440	142,793	12,252
– Gross Shorts:	68,281	170,611	9,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	59.9	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-5.9	-14.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -40,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 8,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	38.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	26.4	10.7
– Net Position:	-40,060	41,564	-1,504
– Gross Longs:	89,996	134,236	35,913
– Gross Shorts:	130,056	92,672	37,417
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	90.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	0.5	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

25 Feb

COT Stocks: January 31st data shows Nasdaq-Mini and Russell-Mini led Speculator bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were mixed as four out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (9,403 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,377 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (2,632 contracts) and DowJones-Mini (538 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets for the week were the S&P500-Mini (-13,266 contracts) and VIX (-13,769 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-638 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-360 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,061,419	4	-222,257	15	234,786	82	-12,529	24
Nikkei 225	14,330	10	-5,072	53	5,452	57	-380	24
Nasdaq-Mini	278,449	59	-15,858	66	32,053	46	-16,195	21
DowJones-Mini	80,386	43	-9,428	33	12,077	71	-2,649	27
VIX	310,475	42	-66,918	66	69,707	32	-2,789	78
Nikkei 225 Yen	36,496	13	9,112	62	-4,201	0	-4,911	70

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (66 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) led the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 Yen (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (15.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (17.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (33.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (32.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (66.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (60.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (53.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (1.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)

VIX led the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that just about all the markets had lower trend scores. The VIX was the only market with a score above 0 at a 0.2 percent trend score. The EAFE-Mini (-36.5 percent) had the lowest or most negative score that week followed by the S&P500-Mini (-11.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (0.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (20.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-11.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (4.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-11.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-10.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-36.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-23.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -66,918 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly lowering of -13,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	35.2	8.8
– Net Position:	-66,918	69,707	-2,789
– Gross Longs:	52,935	178,998	24,430
– Gross Shorts:	119,853	109,291	27,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	31.5	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-6.5	46.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -222,257 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -13,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.3	12.5
– Net Position:	-222,257	234,786	-12,529
– Gross Longs:	253,439	1,519,069	245,628
– Gross Shorts:	475,696	1,284,283	258,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	81.6	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	10.0	-2.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -9,428 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly advance of 538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	52.1	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	37.1	20.1
– Net Position:	-9,428	12,077	-2,649
– Gross Longs:	21,339	41,874	13,546
– Gross Shorts:	30,767	29,797	16,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	71.1	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.7	6.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -15,858 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 9,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	65.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	54.2	16.9
– Net Position:	-15,858	32,053	-16,195
– Gross Longs:	59,439	183,098	30,935
– Gross Shorts:	75,297	151,045	47,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	46.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	20.5	-24.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -63,024 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly gain of 4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	82.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	69.4	4.6
– Net Position:	-63,024	57,143	5,881
– Gross Longs:	42,702	356,143	25,493
– Gross Shorts:	105,726	299,000	19,612
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	62.7	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	0.1	12.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -5,072 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly fall of -360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	65.9	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	27.8	20.9
– Net Position:	-5,072	5,452	-380
– Gross Longs:	2,269	9,440	2,621
– Gross Shorts:	7,341	3,988	3,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.4	57.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	20.2	-24.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing for the week totaled a net position of -34,840 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	87.5	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	82.0	1.3
– Net Position:	-34,840	20,734	14,106
– Gross Longs:	24,465	327,871	18,967
– Gross Shorts:	59,305	307,137	4,861
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	84.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.5	27.9	38.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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