InvestMacro

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (5,576 contracts) with the Fed Funds (4,285 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-101,216 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-47,680 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-89,405 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-12,310 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-36,694 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,485 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,743,755	93	-64,814	76	71,653	23	-6,839	84
FedFunds	1,587,838	54	-160,574	25	171,109	75	-10,535	70
2-Year	3,654,986	99	-1,119,380	0	1,019,100	100	100,280	100
Long T-Bond	1,248,006	61	-143,294	38	102,899	47	40,395	78
10-Year	4,746,657	91	-629,561	21	627,008	86	2,553	74
5-Year	5,333,980	100	-1,145,489	0	1,099,014	100	46,475	94

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (76 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (38 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (25 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (21.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (38.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (76.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (82.9 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (14 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (-7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-20 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-13.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-8.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-19.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-23.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-7.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -64,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -101,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	60.4	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	59.7	0.3
– Net Position:	-64,814	71,653	-6,839
– Gross Longs:	1,698,709	5,884,636	26,636
– Gross Shorts:	1,763,523	5,812,983	33,475
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	23.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	6.7	4.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -160,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -164,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	73.3	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	62.5	2.8
– Net Position:	-160,574	171,109	-10,535
– Gross Longs:	63,814	1,163,314	34,331
– Gross Shorts:	224,388	992,205	44,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.1	75.0	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-13.2	-4.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,119,380 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -47,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,071,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	82.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	54.4	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,119,380	1,019,100	100,280
– Gross Longs:	337,331	3,008,318	252,359
– Gross Shorts:	1,456,711	1,989,218	152,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	14.5	2.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,145,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -89,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,056,084 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	85.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	64.5	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,145,489	1,099,014	46,475
– Gross Longs:	355,966	4,540,528	376,738
– Gross Shorts:	1,501,455	3,441,514	330,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	7.0	9.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -629,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -635,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	67.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-629,561	627,008	2,553
– Gross Longs:	438,567	3,828,697	382,073
– Gross Shorts:	1,068,128	3,201,689	379,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	86.0	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-7.0	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -185,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -36,694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	78.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	62.6	14.6
– Net Position:	-185,167	270,572	-85,405
– Gross Longs:	180,705	1,361,599	170,041
– Gross Shorts:	365,872	1,091,027	255,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	92.2	63.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.3	-5.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -143,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	78.4	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	70.2	11.3
– Net Position:	-143,294	102,899	40,395
– Gross Longs:	79,100	978,891	181,270
– Gross Shorts:	222,394	875,992	140,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	47.3	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	21.8	-0.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -439,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -432,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	82.6	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	57.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-439,397	377,894	61,503
– Gross Longs:	81,265	1,250,311	176,653
– Gross Shorts:	520,662	872,417	115,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	90.5	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	11.3	10.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & the VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by DowJones-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the DowJones-Mini (11,444 contracts) with the VIX (10,444 contracts), Nikkei 225 (1,007 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (171 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-54,706 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-9,749 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,789 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,280,677	28	-263,685	25	235,997	72	27,688	54
Nikkei 225	16,045	16	-2,864	50	1,564	45	1,300	45
Nasdaq-Mini	264,119	40	1,199	78	4,393	26	-5,592	43
DowJones-Mini	102,267	68	-7,141	54	6,949	48	192	45
VIX	438,936	92	-40,289	90	44,518	8	-4,229	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,387	38	7,207	56	15,003	52	-22,210	35

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (90 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (56 percent) and DowJones-Mini (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (19 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (82.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (53.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (21.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (83.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (43.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.3 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (29 percent), the VIX (13 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (12.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (44.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (8.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-4.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (19.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	47.3	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	37.1	6.3
– Net Position:	-40,289	44,518	-4,229
– Gross Longs:	109,936	207,566	23,481
– Gross Shorts:	150,225	163,048	27,710
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.1	7.7	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.0	-12.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -263,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -54,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	75.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	65.5	10.4
– Net Position:	-263,685	235,997	27,688
– Gross Longs:	235,723	1,728,979	264,046
– Gross Shorts:	499,408	1,492,982	236,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	72.5	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-15.8	11.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	54.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	47.7	14.4
– Net Position:	-7,141	6,949	192
– Gross Longs:	29,709	55,758	14,913
– Gross Shorts:	36,850	48,809	14,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	47.9	44.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.2	-29.6	-4.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	53.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	52.1	17.0
– Net Position:	1,199	4,393	-5,592
– Gross Longs:	75,196	141,970	39,322
– Gross Shorts:	73,997	137,577	44,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	25.5	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	1.2	10.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -65,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	82.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	71.4	4.0
– Net Position:	-65,702	60,957	4,745
– Gross Longs:	57,206	436,369	25,882
– Gross Shorts:	122,908	375,412	21,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	64.7	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-0.6	13.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,871 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	63.9	27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	54.2	19.3
– Net Position:	-2,864	1,564	1,300
– Gross Longs:	1,388	10,254	4,403
– Gross Shorts:	4,252	8,690	3,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	45.4	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.8	-21.7	-10.7

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	89.8	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	86.2	1.4
– Net Position:	-20,850	14,197	6,653
– Gross Longs:	25,099	354,008	12,096
– Gross Shorts:	45,949	339,811	5,443
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	76.2	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-1.5	13.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

23 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (16,420 contracts) with Corn (12,059 contracts), Lean Hogs (628 contracts), Cocoa (6,373 contracts), Cotton (4,986 contracts), Wheat (1,708 contracts) and Sugar (2 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-2,570 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,657 contracts) and Soybean Oil (-6,592 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,768,189	33	206,099	17	-233,490	84	27,391	34
Gold	482,104	28	193,348	62	-213,715	41	20,367	31
Silver	146,863	36	43,862	81	-55,983	26	12,121	34
Copper	216,862	56	-3,550	28	-1,054	71	4,604	48
Palladium	16,017	100	-8,350	0	8,837	100	-487	12
Platinum	65,834	54	15,736	52	-19,674	53	3,938	21
Natural Gas	1,234,296	56	-95,762	34	65,084	65	30,678	53
Brent	128,248	2	-45,770	22	42,386	79	3,384	55
Heating Oil	331,790	49	21,392	67	-42,785	38	21,393	72
Soybeans	659,917	19	107,283	31	-81,463	69	-25,820	40
Corn	1,285,176	13	19,870	24	31,268	81	-51,138	41
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	881,020	44	196,306	60	-226,229	41	29,923	41
Wheat	303,407	10	-38,703	39	43,035	63	-4,332	58

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (60 percent), Soybean Meal (56 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Corn (24 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (26 percent) and the Soybeans (31 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (24.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.6 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (60.3 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (31.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (55.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.0 percent)
Live Cattle (92.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (26.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.8 percent)
Cotton (22.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (18.9 percent)
Cocoa (98.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (91.1 percent)
Wheat (39.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (38.1 percent)

Wheat & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (37 percent) and Soybean Oil (28 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (27 percent), Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Corn (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent), Soybean Meal (-3 percent) and Live Cattle (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.0 percent)
Sugar (-13.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.2 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (26.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (25.8 percent)
Cotton (1.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.8 percent)
Cocoa (4.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.2 percent)
Wheat (36.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (38.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	48.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	46.2	13.5
– Net Position:	19,870	31,268	-51,138
– Gross Longs:	270,722	624,697	122,460
– Gross Shorts:	250,852	593,429	173,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	80.8	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.3	0.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 196,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	43.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	69.5	5.4
– Net Position:	196,306	-226,229	29,923
– Gross Longs:	280,498	386,226	77,931
– Gross Shorts:	84,192	612,455	48,008
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	40.5	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	15.9	-19.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 107,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	48.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	60.9	11.3
– Net Position:	107,283	-81,463	-25,820
– Gross Longs:	185,158	320,592	48,459
– Gross Shorts:	77,875	402,055	74,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	68.7	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-22.6	-6.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	56.2	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	66.2	5.4
– Net Position:	41,627	-49,860	8,233
– Gross Longs:	91,700	279,250	34,970
– Gross Shorts:	50,073	329,110	26,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	56.8	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.3	-31.4	44.2

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	37.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.1	62.0	5.8
– Net Position:	97,251	-116,636	19,385
– Gross Longs:	117,168	183,807	47,602
– Gross Shorts:	19,917	300,443	28,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	44.7	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	0.6	22.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 104,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	29.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	54.7	12.6
– Net Position:	104,844	-89,634	-15,210
– Gross Longs:	154,268	103,445	29,170
– Gross Shorts:	49,424	193,079	44,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.0	13.2	4.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	9.4	-38.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	37.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	35.8	10.2
– Net Position:	-4,061	4,462	-401
– Gross Longs:	63,838	77,936	20,508
– Gross Shorts:	67,899	73,474	20,909
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	74.4	81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-24.5	-8.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,481 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	49.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	61.9	5.7
– Net Position:	18,481	-21,929	3,448
– Gross Longs:	57,414	88,259	13,524
– Gross Shorts:	38,933	110,188	10,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	75.5	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-0.6	-6.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	27.9	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	50.8	2.8
– Net Position:	76,488	-80,964	4,476
– Gross Longs:	145,705	98,622	14,265
– Gross Shorts:	69,217	179,586	9,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	1.4	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-4.9	1.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,411 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	39.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	25.1	10.6
– Net Position:	-38,703	43,035	-4,332
– Gross Longs:	85,918	119,240	27,939
– Gross Shorts:	124,621	76,205	32,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	63.3	58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.9	-33.9	-33.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as three of the energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts and one was unchanged.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,666 contracts) with Gasoline (3,379 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (2,261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,007 contracts) and Heating Oil (-6,608 contracts) while the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0 contracts) saw no change on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,768,189	33	206,099	17	-233,490	84	27,391	34
Gold	482,104	28	193,348	62	-213,715	41	20,367	31
Silver	146,863	36	43,862	81	-55,983	26	12,121	34
Copper	216,862	56	-3,550	28	-1,054	71	4,604	48
Palladium	16,017	100	-8,350	0	8,837	100	-487	12
Platinum	65,834	54	15,736	52	-19,674	53	3,938	21
Natural Gas	1,234,296	56	-95,762	34	65,084	65	30,678	53
Brent	128,248	2	-45,770	22	42,386	79	3,384	55
Heating Oil	331,790	49	21,392	67	-42,785	38	21,393	72
Soybeans	659,917	19	107,283	31	-81,463	69	-25,820	40
Corn	1,285,176	13	19,870	24	31,268	81	-51,138	41
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	881,020	44	196,306	60	-226,229	41	29,923	41
Wheat	303,407	10	-38,703	39	43,035	63	-4,332	58

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) leads energy at the top of their respective ranges and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (22.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (17.7 percent)
Natural Gas (33.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.4 percent)
Gasoline (47.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.9 percent)
Heating Oil (66.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (16.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Natural Gas (12.3 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (12.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.7 percent)
Gasoline (16.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.5 percent)
Heating Oil (0.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 206,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	36.5	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	49.7	3.3
– Net Position:	206,099	-233,490	27,391
– Gross Longs:	359,341	645,941	85,755
– Gross Shorts:	153,242	879,431	58,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	84.4	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-8.2	2.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	52.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	19.4	5.4
– Net Position:	-45,770	42,386	3,384
– Gross Longs:	11,053	67,322	10,271
– Gross Shorts:	56,823	24,936	6,887
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.2	78.7	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	1.4	35.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	39.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	34.4	3.1
– Net Position:	-95,762	65,084	30,678
– Gross Longs:	252,375	489,065	68,430
– Gross Shorts:	348,137	423,981	37,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	65.4	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-11.0	-9.0

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	42.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	60.7	3.7
– Net Position:	56,786	-68,017	11,231
– Gross Longs:	106,199	154,693	24,973
– Gross Shorts:	49,413	222,710	13,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.5	47.8	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-24.2	42.1

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	46.8	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	59.6	8.8
– Net Position:	21,392	-42,785	21,393
– Gross Longs:	47,142	155,119	50,474
– Gross Shorts:	25,750	197,904	29,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	38.4	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-22.2	47.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	82.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	72.8	0.2
– Net Position:	-5,651	5,515	136
– Gross Longs:	9,662	48,086	270
– Gross Shorts:	15,313	42,571	134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	16.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	16.1	-2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Jul

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 21.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The price of BTC dropped to 29,846 USD on Friday.

The price of the flagship cryptocurrency is marginally above the 29,800 USD support. The next support is at the 29,500 USD level. If buyers are fighting for bullish momentum, they are doing so without the previous enthusiasm.

The relative weakness of the US dollar and the growth of stock indices are playing in favour of optimistic investors.

Among the news is the addition of six companies to the Federal Register of Decisions by the SEC. Everyone is waiting for a response regarding the licence to launch a BTC-based spot ETF.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation decreased to USD 1.200 trillion. The share of BTC remains at 48.3%, while the share of ETH fell to 18.3%.

The correlation of BTC with the stock market has dropped to its three-year lows

The correlation of BTC’s value with the traditional finance sector – particularly with the S&P 500 index – has fallen to a three-year low of only 7% at the end of the first half of 2023. The Binance Research survey suggests that this is an argument in favour of using cryptocurrency as a diversification tool. Back in January this year, the correlation was 45%.

Tesla reintroduces the option to pay with BTC

Electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla has reintroduced BTC as an accepted form of payment on its official website. However, it is currently unknown when this cryptocurrency payment option for purchasing vehicles will become publicly available. It is worth noting that the company ceased accepting cryptocurrency payments in May 2021.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

21 Jul

Nasdaq falls amid weak TSLA and NFLX reports. Analysts are betting on NVDA

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.47%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.68%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell sharply yesterday by 2.05%. The Dow Jones Index (US30) has posted nine straight days of gains, the longest streak of gains since 2017.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 9% at the open yesterday and were on track for the biggest one-day percentage drop after the electric car maker reported second-quarter gross profit fell to a four-year low and CEO Elon Musk hinted at further price cuts. Netflix (NFLX) was down by 8% from the open after the streaming video company’s quarterly revenue missed estimates. Analysts at Barclays raised their price target on shares of Nvidia (NVDA) by $100 to $600 per share ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Barclays joined HSBC and Rosenblatt, who also raised their price targets. Analysts believe Nvidia could deliver another strong earnings report above expectations amid GenAI demand.

The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 228,000. Economists had forecast 242,000 claims in the past week. That increased the likelihood of a more hawkish stance from the Fed next week. On Thursday, the Conference Board said its leading economic index, a gauge that anticipates future economic activity, fell by 0.7% in June to 106.1. Other data on Thursday showed US secondary home sales fell to a five-month low in June.

Equity markets in Europe traded higher on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.59%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.79% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed positive by 0.72%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.76%.

According to the survey, the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on July 27. But this decision is already factored into the price, so the main focus of attention will be on the ECB’s future plans. The hawkish attitude of officials will hint at another rate hike in the fall.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.13%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive by 0.02%.

Technology chip giant TSMC reported lower profits and provided a gloomy outlook. China’s National Development and Reform Commission, China’s economic planner, unveiled new measures aimed at boosting spending in the auto and consumer electronics sectors. Fund managers have become less optimistic about China’s economic recovery this year amid weak performance and limited policy support. Economists at Bank of America (BAC) warned that local stocks could test 11-year lows as the post-COVID economic recovery falters.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,534.87 −30.85 (−0.68%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,225.18 +163.97 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 16,204.22 +95.29 (+0.59%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,646.05 +57.85 (0.76%)

USD Index 100.77 +0.49 (+0.49%)

Important events for today:

– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Jul

Week Ahead: EURUSD set for another wild ride

By ForexTime

Fasten your seatbelts because global financial markets could experience heightened volatility in the week ahead!

Investors will be bombarded with a long list of high-risk events ranging from pivotal central bank meetings, top-tier data from major economies and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world.

But before we pinpoint what asset to watch out for amid the expected action, here are the scheduled economic data releases and events over the coming week:

Monday, July 24

JPY: Japan Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone & Germany S&P Global PMIs
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMI

Tuesday, July 25

EUR: Germany IFO business climate
USD: US Conf. Board consumer confidence
NQ100_m: Microsoft Corp earnings

Wednesday, July 26

AUD: Australia CPI
USD: FOMC rate decision, US new home sales
SPX500_m: Coca-Cola earnings

Thursday, July 27

CNH: China industrial profits
EUR: ECB rate decision
USD: US Q2 GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims
SPX500_m: McDonald’s Corp earnings

Friday, July 28

AUD: Australia retail sales
EUR: Germany CPI, Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
JPY: BoJ rate decision, Tokyo CPI
USD: US June PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Indeed, the barrage of high-risk events could translate into fresh trading opportunities across financial markets. However, our attention will be directed to none other than the world’s most popular traded currency, which is set to be heavily influenced by the central bank combo and key reports.

But before we break down the factors that could see the EURUSD end July with a bang, it is worth keeping in mind that the currency seems to be under pressure on the H4 charts. After hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275, bulls seem to be running out of steam with bears greedily eyeing support at 1.1090. The events in the upcoming week could dictate whether prices rebound or sink lower.

Here are 4 reasons why you should not take your eyes off the EURUSD:

Fed meeting

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking the upper band of the Fed funds to 5.5%. The question is whether this will be the hike that ends the central bank’s aggressive hiking campaign. Given the mixed US economic data over the past few weeks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference are likely to be closely scrutinized by investors for fresh clues on future monetary policy.

Should the Fed signal more rate hikes down the road, this could inject dollar bulls with renewed inspiration – dragging the EURUSD lower.
If the Fed hints it’s done with raising rates, the dollar is likely to find itself under fresh selling pressure – resulting in the EURUSD pushing higher.

It is worth keeping in mind that traders are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25bps hike next week, with the probability of another 25 bps hike by November’s meeting only at 35%.

ECB meeting

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Cooling inflationary pressures continue to support expectations around the central bank moving closer to ending its hiking cycle. Nevertheless, President Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate that the ECB is unlikely to ease anytime soon with the decision in September depending on economic data.

The euro could push higher if the ECB strikes a hawkish note and signals more rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting. This may trigger a rebound in the EURUSD.
A cautious-sounding ECB that signals a pause in hikes down the line could weaken the euro, pulling the EURUSD lower.

Top-tier data dump

Throughout the trading week, investors will be dished out a platter of key economic reports from the United States and Europe which could rock the EURUSD.

On Monday, all eyes will be on key PMI reports from the Eurozone and Germany. Tuesday see’s the Germany IFO business climate figures and US Conf. Board consumer confidence data. The dollar could be injected with more volatility on Thursday due to the second quarter of US GDP figures and the initial jobless claims report. On Friday, inflation data from the largest economy in Europe will be under the spotlight. This will be complemented by the latest Eurozone economic and consumer confidence figures. To wrap up the week, much focus will be directed towards the June PCE Core Deflator which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Should the pending US/Eurozone print above markets expectations, this may support speculation around rates remaining higher for longer – lending support to respective currency.
If the incoming data from the US/Eurozone disappoint, this could reinforce speculation around the hiking cycle coming to an end – weakening the respective currency.

Technical forces

EURUSD has found itself under selling pressure after hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275. Indeed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already at overbought levels with bears wasting no time to attack following the breakdown below 1.1200.

Despite the recent losses, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with bulls maintaining some control above 1.1032. A technical throwback could be in the process which may see prices rebound back towards 17-month highs in the week ahead. Alternatively, a solid breakdown under 1.1032 may trigger a further selloff towards 1.0950 and 1.0850, respectively.

Zooming out into the weekly charts, prices remain in a bullish weekly channel. However, strong resistance can be found around the 200-week SMA. Should 1.1050 prove to be reliable support, this may provide a foundation for bulls to retest 1.1275 and beyond. Alternatively, a weekly close under 1.1050 may open a path back toward 1.0800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Jul

Euro Stoxx 600: “Following the Script”

“If the 2007 analogue holds, the current rally [will] persist …”

By Elliott Wave International

On Oct. 24, 2022, Bloomberg said:

Forget about a Santa rally to rescue European stocks from their doldrums, say strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Bank of America Corp.

A week and a half later, our November 2022 Global Market Perspective offered a different view:

If the 2007 analogue holds, the current rally [will] persist …

As it turned out, not only did the rally in the Euro Stoxx 600 persist through the holiday season, it carried well into 2023.

The just-published July Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International publication which offers forecasts for 50-plus financial markets, provided an update with these charts and commentary [keep in mind that wave labels are available to subscribers]:

The charts bring the forecast up to date. In April and May, the Stoxx 600 briefly exceeded its 75% retracement level. On June 18, prices fell back below it and have yet to look back. The wave structure shows a complete zigzag at the May 19 high (see Elliott Wave Principle, p. 41, for the definition of a zigzag). A decline beneath the wave B low … will confirm the onset of [the next Elliott wave] down.

The July Global Market Perspective mentions that specific price level which will confirm the next sizeable leg down.

Do know that not all our forecasts work out so well. At the same time, the Elliott wave model is the best analytical tool of which we’re aware so we’ll continue to base our forecasts on the repetitive patterns of investor psychology.

As Frost & Prechter noted in Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

The Wave Principle is governed by man’s social nature, and since he has such a nature, its expression generates forms. As the forms are repetitive, they have predictive value.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Euro Stoxx 600: “Following the Script”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

20 Jul

China’s Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged. Australia’s labor market remains resilient

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.31%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.24%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.03% yesterday.

Investment bank Credit Suisse raised its year-end growth target for the S&P 500 (US500) from 4050 to 4700 points as the risk of a near-term recession in the US declines and forecasts larger earnings for major technology companies. The Index is now at 4545 points.

Netflix’s (NFLX) quarterly report disappointed investors – revenue in the second quarter fell short of analysts’ expectations. Tesla (TSLA) reported quarterly gross profit in line with Wall Street estimates. NFLX and NFLX prices were little changed on the report’s release. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has signaled that he will cut electric car prices again, even as his all-out price war with rivals cuts into the company’s own margins.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.11% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed negative by 0.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 1.80%.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said he sees room to increase the pace of the central bank’s balance sheet reduction by accelerating the so-called quantitative tightening program. Ramsden said the Bank of England would reduce its holdings of bonds and corporate loans by a total of 100 billion pounds by October. The Bank of England is currently reducing its securities portfolio at a rate of about £80 billion a year as assets mature, and it is actively selling debt. It has about £802 billion of debt left.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday even as government data showed US crude stockpiles last week fell by only a third of expected levels. Gasoline consumption also came in below expectations for mid-July.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.24% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 0.33%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day 0.55% positive.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said yesterday that there is still some way to go before the central bank’s 2% inflation target is reached in a sustainable and stable manner, dampening speculation of a hawkish policy shift next week.

In Australia, the unemployment rate remained at 3.5%. The economy added 32,600 jobs over the past month, above the forecast of 15,000. Job growth in June left the employment-to-population ratio at a record high of 64.5%, reflecting resilience in the labor market. This is not good news for the RBA as the RBA’s goal now is to increase unemployment to reduce inflation.

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged in July at 3.55%. The five-year LPR, on which many lenders base their mortgage rates, was also unchanged from the previous reading of 4.2%. BofA Global Research on Thursday cut China’s economic growth forecast for this year to 5.1% from 5.7% due to disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) growth and a lack of response from the People’s Bank of China.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,565.72 +10.74 (+0.24%)

Dow Jones (US30) 35,061.21 +109.28 (+0.31%)

DAX (DE40) 16,108.93 −16.56 (−0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,588.20 +134.51 (+1.80%)

USD Index 100.28 +0.34 (+0.34%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Jul

Spanish election: How it could impact the SPN35

By ForexTime

Spain goes to the polls on Sunday in a snap national election that will most likely shape its economic and political outlook.

With this big risk event around the corner, you may be wondering what exactly is going on.

Here, we’ll unpack the developments in Spain and look at how they could impact your trading.

What is happening?

On Sunday 23rd July, Spaniards will vote for a new parliament.

Polls open at 07:00 GMT and close at 18:00 GMT in mainland Spain.

Why is this happening?

A national election was due by December, but Spain’s incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez unexpectedly called a snap ballot after his Socialist party suffered a painful defeat in local elections back in May.

Who are the major players?

Pedro Sanchez: Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) – Centre-left
Alberto Nunez Feijoo: People’s Party (PP) – Centre-right
Santiago Abascal: (VOX) – Far-right
Yolanda Diaz: Sumar (“UNITE”) – Far-left

Crunching the numbers

No party is expected to secure an outright majority in the 350-seat parliament.

According to the final opinion polls allowed under Spanish law before Sunday’s election, the conservative People’s Party (PP) is ahead of the ruling Socialist Workers Party (PSOE). However, to govern PP would most likely require the support of the far-right VOX party.

PP: 140 seats
PSOE: 108 seats
Vox: 36 seats
Sumar: 33 seats
Others: 33 seats

What does this mean?

Ultimately, it means Spain could see a far-right party back in power for the first time since the country’s dictatorship ended in 1975.

How might this impact Spain?

The fourth-largest economy in the euro area is facing headwinds in the form of sticky food inflation, lagging growth compared to its European peers and falling disposable income among households.

Should a new right-wing government come into power, it could change the course of Spain’s economic policy. Without digging too deep, this represents some element of uncertainty that could influence confidence over the country’s economic outlook.

What could go wrong?

After Sunday’s election, a new parliament must be established by 17th August. However, there is no deadline for the candidates’ negotiations to form a government.

Taking a trip back memory lane, Spain faced months of uncertainty back in 2019 after it took Sanchez two elections to form a government.

Should PP and Vox fail to cut a deal despite gaining the majority, this could result in another election.

How may this move the SPN35?

Broadly speaking, the market-friendly outcome appears to be a right-wing majority.

This is because last year, the incumbent Sanchez administration unleashed a windfall tax on banks. While the tax was due to expire by 2024, the current government has considered making it permanent.

It is worth keeping in mind that financial stocks account for 28.5% of the IBEX 35, and are the largest sector represented.

Market optimism over the new government removing this tax by 2024 could inject IBEX 35 bulls with renewed confidence.

An outcome that results in the far-right party back in power may propel the SPN35 back towards the 9650 resistance level and beyond.
A hung parliament scenario that results in fresh uncertainty could hit appetite for Spanish stocks, dragging the index back towards 9000 and possibly lower.

Taking a deeper dive into the technicals, the SPN35 remains in a wide range on the weekly charts with support at 9000 and resistance at 9650. A breakout could be on the horizon, but this is likely to be heavily influenced by Sunday’s election result.

A breakout above 9650 may see prices test levels not seen since February 2020 at 10000. Should prices tumble and experience a break below 9000, this may open a path back toward 8540.

A special message for FXTM clients:

Due to the Spanish General Election on Sunday 23rd July, we’ll be temporarily changing our margin requirement for the Spain 35 Index (SPN35 & SPN35_m) from 1:200 to 1:50.

This change will be effective from Friday, 21st July (before market open) to Monday, 24th July. However, we may extend this depending on market conditions.

If you have any open positions on the Spain 35 Index, please consider your trading strategy and make sure you have enough funds in your account to cover the new margin requirements.

If you have any questions about this or need help with your account, please do not hesitate to contact us.

Kind regards,

FXTM Team

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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