Using green banks to solve America’s affordable housing crisis – and climate change at the same time

By Tarun Gopalakrishnan, Tufts University; Bethany Tietjen, Tufts University, and Seth Owusu-Mante, Tufts University 

Green banks are starting to draw attention in the U.S., particularly since the federal government announced its first grant competitions under a national green bank program to bring clean technology and more affordable energy to low-income communities.

But installing more solar and wind electricity generation isn’t the only way green banks can help.

Massachusetts is launching an innovative new green bank that could become a model as states try to manage two crises at once: lack of affordable housing and climate change.

While most green banks focus on clean energy, the Massachusetts Community Climate Bank is specifically designed to boost the state’s stock of sustainable, affordable housing. It comes at an opportune time: States can now tap into billions of dollars in new federal funding for green banks under the Inflation Reduction Act.

So what exactly is a green bank, and how might it work for sustainable housing?

What is a green bank?

Despite the name, green banks aren’t traditional banks. They function more like investment funds with a mission to promote sustainability.

Green banks are public, quasi-public or nonprofit entities that use public funds to encourage private investment in low-carbon, climate-resilient infrastructure.

By using innovative financing strategies, green banks can lower the risks for private investors to support projects, which reduces the amount of public money needed to reach government goals like expanding renewable energy or, in this case, affordable housing.

Green banks across the US

The U.S. had about two dozen green banks operating in early 2023 in at least 18 states and the District of Columbia – most of them focused on accelerating the transition from fossil fuel use to clean energy. And more were being developed.

In 2022, those banks used US$1.51 billion of public money to mobilize $3.12 billion in private investment. Since 2011, they have brought in a total of $14.8 billion.

Each bank is slightly different. Connecticut’s was the first state-run green bank in the U.S. It started with a renewable energy focus but expanded to include sustainable infrastructure, climate resilience, water, waste and recycling projects. Michigan created a nonprofit green bank called Michigan Saves that provides financing for energy efficiency. Hawaii’s state-run green bank boosts solar energy use.

At the local level, Maryland’s Montgomery County has been financing rooftop and community solar, energy efficiency and electric vehicle charging infrastructure through a green bank since 2016.

Finance New Orleans is a particularly instructive comparison – the 40-year-old housing finance agency recently transitioned to a climate-oriented business model to finance energy efficiency, stormwater management and green infrastructure projects for homeowners, businesses and local governments.

A green bank for sustainable housing

The new Massachusetts Community Climate Bank is solely dedicated to climate-friendly and resilient affordable housing to meet the goals of the state’s Climate Plan for 2050.

That might include upgrading insulation and windows in older housing complexes to make them less leaky on hot and cold days, transitioning to electric household appliances such as heat pumps or adding solar panels and electric vehicle chargers.

Residential buildings are one of Massachusetts’ largest sources of greenhouse emissions, accounting for 19% of the total. Making housing more sustainable would cut those emissions and also help cut emissions in other sectors. For example, rooftop solar panels can reduce the demand for electricity from natural gas-fired power plants, allowing the state to close the plants or run them less often.

The challenge is that the finance industry tends to view new technology and low-income households as risks.

Green banks are able to use public money to “de-risk” such investments. For example, they can lend at low rates to private or local lenders on the condition that they lend money at affordable rates for customers to electrify their heating. Other financial instruments include loan guarantees, securitization and co-investment.

Massachusetts’ green bank started with an initial $50 million in state funds, but it expects to grow by attracting both private investors and federal funding.

The timing is strategic. The Inflation Reduction Act, passed by Congress in 2022, includes funding for green banks. Among other commitments, it creates a $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, $20 billion of which is earmarked to be awarded to nonprofits to invest indirectly in green projects through other local financing entities – including green banks.

Lessons from green banks around the world

The Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University, where we work as researchers, studies green banks around the world.

We have found that by following a few foundational principles, green banks can increase financing for climate priorities while remaining financially viable and without creating housing debt that owners can’t pay back. These organizations should:

  1. Have a clear, well-defined mission.
  2. Be profit-making, but not profit-maximizing.
  3. Address market gaps rather than competing with private investment.
  4. Be flexible enough to use a variety of financial instruments.
  5. Have an independent, stable and nonpartisan governance structure to ensure stability.

The Massachusetts green bank has a sector-focused mission that targets a market gap. Its focus on affordable housing could be clarified even more by tying it to the state definition of disadvantaged communities. The New York Green Bank does this by aiming to have $100 million – about 35% of its total – invested in green housing to benefit disadvantaged communities by 2025.

Focusing the Massachusetts bank’s climate mission will involve some tough decisions. For example, Connecticut’s Green Bank supports gas appliances above defined energy efficiency thresholds, but there is an argument for leapfrogging gas entirely to support the electrification of heating and cooking instead.

What else should green banks prioritize?

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is important for curbing future climate change, but communities will also have to adapt to the climate impacts ahead.

The fact that the Massachusetts green bank is dedicated to affordable housing is already one adaptation. People who have homes are far more protected from climate impacts than those who do not. And if those homes are powered by clean energy with lower utility bills, low-income residents can more easily afford to cool their homes in extreme heat waves.

Green banks could also fund climate resilience, such as adding green spaces around buildings for natural cooling. Research shows that affordable housing in the United States is often in highly vulnerable locations, such as those at risk of flooding.

The Connecticut Green Bank, for example, is piloting “Property Assessed Resilience,” which allows homeowners to borrow for flood protection upgrades and benefit immediately from increased property valuations and reduced insurance premiums. They can repay over decades through modest increases in their property tax bills.

Focusing on the scarcity of affordable housing can reduce both emissions and socioeconomic inequity simultaneously. In our view, that is the holy grail of climate policy.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Tarun Gopalakrishnan, Research Fellow, Climate Policy Lab, Tufts University; Bethany Tietjen, Research Fellow in Climate Policy, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, and Seth Owusu-Mante, Research Fellow in International Development, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Robert Prechter Interview for the Ages: Quick Takes on Big Financial Trends

‘That’s not even the craziest indicator on this chart. Look at the bottom graph.’

By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter’s June 23 interview with GoldSeek.com, which is under 15 minutes, covers a variety of financial topics.

They include stocks with an emphasis on the technology sector (including artificial intelligence), bitcoin, gold and silver, corporate bonds and the prospects for deflation.

You can look below to learn how to listen to the entire interview for free.

But, first, let me share with you just one of the interview topics, and that’s the stock-market sentiment which was on display leading up to the January 2022 top in the blue-chip indexes.

Relatedly, in the GoldSeek interview, Robert said:

Sentiment indicators… can tell you the extent to which [people] are extremely optimistic or pessimistic. Well, 2021 was a year like no other. Finally, in December 2021, I put out an issue called “A Stock Market Top for the Ages.”

Here’s one of the sentiment charts that the December 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist showed along with the commentary (The Elliott Wave Theorist is a monthly publication which covers major financial and cultural trends):

NaryBear

The middle graph is the ratio between the amount of money that Rydex investors have put into bullish funds versus bearish funds. Look toward the left, and you’ll see the words “normal range.”

[Fifteen] years ago, the ratio was around 1:1 or 2:1… In general there was a bit more money in bull funds than in bear.

Investors have been going crazy in the last five years. On November 19, the ratio reached 62:1…

That’s not even the craziest indicator on this chart. Look at the bottom graph, which depicts the ratio of leveraged bullish funds versus leveraged bearish funds. It shows that there is 82 times as much money in the leveraged bullish funds as there is in the leveraged bearish funds.

So, it wasn’t surprising that the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 index topped early in the very next month.

Getting back to the GoldSeek interview, learn how you can access it for free by following the link.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Robert Prechter Interview for the Ages: Quick Takes on Big Financial Trends. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, MATIC). Overview for 19.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate reached 30,082 USD on Wednesday.

Last night, the flagship cryptocurrency experienced a remarkable decline and tested support at 29,800 USD. This is due, firstly, to the lack of new buying drivers. Secondly, the time factor is working against buyers: the longer the pause in purchases persists, the less positive momentum there is.

To put it simply, the market missed a favourable opportunity to rise above. BTC needs to return to 30,800 USD to continue its growth.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation amounted to 1.210 trillion USD. The share of BTC decreased to 48.3%, and that of ETH dropped to 19.0%.

Valkyrie files an application with SEC to launch an ETF

Valkyrie has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for approval of a licence to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. The company has previously been involved in obtaining licences but has now revised its application to comply with the new SEC requirements.

9.8 million MATIC tokens transferred to Binance

A large investor has transferred approximately 7.4 million USD worth of cryptocurrency to the Binance exchange. According to Whale Alert, this amounts to 9.8 million MATIC tokens. The MATIC rate may decrease significantly in the next few days.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Bank of England will STILL RAISE interest rates despite cooling inflation: deVere CEO

By George Prior

The Bank of England will raise interest rates again next month despite UK inflation cooling, predicts the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes as fresh figures reveal that UK inflation fell to 7.9% in June, from 8.7% the month before.

He says: “Despite the data showing that the battle against inflation in the UK is being won, we expect the Bank of England will confirm it’ll continue with its aggressive interest rate hiking agenda at the monetary policy meeting on August 1.

“Although the consumer price index fell to 7.9% last month, amid lower petrol prices and a slowdown in the pace of growth for food, beverages and other basics, the central bank officials will likely argue that there is still work to be done.

“We believe the Bank will insist that although inflation is certainly coming down, it is doing so very, very gradually. It remains sticky – still the highest in the G7 – and a long way from the 2% target.

“They will say prices are still far too high and rising at a quicker pace than they have done in the past. In addition, they are likely to cite strong wage growth in the three months to May.”

He continues: “Against this backdrop, we expect the Bank of England to increase interest rates for a 14th consecutive time at its next policy meeting – and we wouldn’t be surprised if there were a second consecutive 50 basis point hike.”

Another interest rate hike could “pile on more misery” for households, homeowners, and businesses.

Higher interest rates lead to increased borrowing costs, making mortgages more expensive. Homeowners with variable-rate mortgages are likely to face higher monthly payments. Rising interest rates will also reduce disposable income as loan repayments increase, affecting household spending and overall economic activity.

Businesses reliant on borrowing may face higher interest expenses, which can affect their profitability and ability to expand or invest. In addition, higher interest rates can reduce consumer spending, affecting businesses dependent on consumer demand.

Hiked interest rates typically negatively impact the value of existing fixed-income investments, such as bonds, as newer issuances offer higher yields.

The higher rates also historically lead to stock market uncertainty and increase volatility, as investors reassess the attractiveness of different investments. Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as housing, cars, and financial sectors, could experience greater impacts than others.

Nigel Green concludes: “We believe that although the battle to tame inflation seems to be being won, with the lowest reading in 16 months, the Bank of England is highly unlikely to be dissuaded from its course of rate hiking action for the time being.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

UK100_m soars on easing UK inflation

By ForexTime

  • UK100_m tracks FTSE 100 index which measures 100 largest UK stocks
  • Lower-than-expected UK inflation = lowered bets for BOE rate hikes = Pound falls
  • Weaker GBP improves earnings outlook for FTSE 100 companies, pushing UK100_m higher
  • Technical analysis points to 4 potential upside targets for UK100_m

 

The UK100_m has resurfaced above the psychologically-important 7500 level after today’s UK inflation data came in below market expectations.

Looking at the price charts, the UK100_m index ascent is significant, given that it’s gone above several notable price levels:

  • the upper bound of its downtrend since April (broken out of the multi-month downtrend)
  • a key Fibonacci level from its October 2022 – February 2023 ascent
  • its early-July cycle high of 7565.2

NOTE: The UK100_m tracks the FTSE 100 index (the benchmark used to measure the performance of blue-chip UK stocks).

 

Latest UK CPI: What you need to know

The UK’s consumer price index (CPI) measures headline inflation – the change in prices that UK consumers pay for goods and services.

The CPI rose by 7.9% in June 2023 compared to June 2022 (year-on-year).

This is the first time that the headline CPI number has dropped below the 8% mark since March 2022!

  • June’s 7.9% figure was also lower than the market’s forecast of 8.2%.
  • June’s CPI growth of 7.9% was also below May’s 8.7% year-on-year figure.

This shows that UK inflation is slowing noticeably, compared to the double-digit figures posted on most months between July 2022 till March 2023, a period when the CPI peaked at 11.1% last October.

 

What does the lower-than-expected CPI data mean for the BOE?

Markets have now greatly reduced their bets for future rate hikes by the Bank of England (BOE).

Note that the BOE has already raised its benchmark rate by 490 basis points since December 2021.

That’s the BOE’s most aggressive series of rate-hikes since the late-1980s: the same decade when UK CPI was also posting double-digit figures.

The aim for these rate hikes is to subdue UK inflation.

And judging by today’s data release, it appears to be working.

 

Looking ahead, here’s what markets are predicting at the time of writing as for the BOE’s next moves:

  • a less-than-even (43.8%) chance of a larger 50-basis point (bp) hike at the upcoming BOE rate decision due August 3rd.
  • a less-than-even (44.7%) chance that the BOE can even proceed with 100-bps in hikes before UK interest rates peak at around 5.8%.

Compare the above odds with what markets had predicted before today’s UK CPI data announcements:

  • 69% chance of a 50-bps hike by the BOE in early August
  • fully expected a total of 100-bps in hikes by the BOE by May 2024, with a 1-in-3 chance of the total remaining hikes being 125 basis points to send the benchmark rate above 6%!

 

Hence, with the slashing of the odds surrounding BOE rate hikes, no surprise that the British Pound is weaker today against all of its G10 peers, except for the Japanese Yen:

NOTE: A currency tends to weaken when markets expect that interest rates in that country won’t/can’t move much higher. 

 

GBPUSD has returned below the psychologically-important 1.300 mark.

 

How does the Pound affect the UK100_m?

Note that British Pound has an inverse relationship with the UK100_m.

That means that when GBP weakens, then the UK100_m tends to strengthen, and vice versa.

Consider this:

  • GBP is the second-best performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far in 2023.
    GBPUSD has a year-to-date advance of over 7%, even after today’s declines.
  • On the other hand, the FTSE 100 index is a clear laggard among benchmark stock indices in developed markets.
    The FTSE 100 has climbed a “mere” 8.7% so far this year, while the likes of the S&P 500, the Euro Stoxx 50, and the Nikkei 225 have all risen by double-digits so far this year!

Generally speaking, this inverse relationship between GBPUSD and the UK100_m has shown up 92% of the time on a 3-day rolling period over the past 30 years (according to Bloomberg’s correlation data).

 

This inverse relationship is due to the fact that companies listed on the FTSE 100 index gets more than 80% of their revenue collectively from outside of the UK, as of October 2022 according to FTSE Russell.

Hence, a weaker Sterling tends to translate into more earnings, in GBP terms, for these FTSE 100 companies.

No surprise then that the UK100_m is climbing higher as GBPUSD is falling.

 

 

Technical Perspective: What’s next for UK100_m?

With the forming of a new higher top today, four price targets can be calculated from there.

Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the top at 7565.3 price level and dragging it to a bottom that formed on 7 July at 7222.3, the following potential targets were established:

  • Potential Target 1: 7702.5
  • Potential Target 2: 7771.1
  • Potential Target 3: 7908.3
  • Potential Target 4: 8079.8

If the bearish momentum exceeds the bullish, this could cause the price to sharply depreciate below the critical support level that formed on 7 July at 7222.3, consequently invalidating the long setup and triggering a sell signal.

However, from a fundamental perspective, UK100_m bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) would need a drastically weakening GBP, perhaps by way of a shocking announcement by the BOE that its rate hikes are to be soon halted, in order for the UK100_m to attain the psychologically-important 8,000 mark.

 

The above scenario is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients.

This can be accessed from the MyFXTM profile, within the Trading Services section (left-hand bar).


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Global inflationary pressures continue to decline. Today, investors’ focus is on the quarterly reports of Tesla and Netflix

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.06%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.71%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.76% yesterday. On Tuesday, stock indices posted strong gains as investors welcomed positive quarterly results from a number of major corporations, including Wall Street banks. At the same time, weaker-than-expected US retail sales data raised the stakes for weakening inflation in the country, which in turn should prompt the Federal Reserve to take a less hawkish stance in the coming months. There is a high probability that the US Fed will end its tightening cycle as early as its July meeting.

Morgan Stanley (MS) jumped by 6% after second-quarter results beat both top and bottom lines forecasts. Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) topped the growth leaderboard, up more than 12% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Quarterly results from companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX) are expected today. Tesla’s quarterly results will likely focus on margins following the electric carmaker’s recent price cuts, while Netflix’s quarterly results will focus investor attention on subscriber growth.

Canada’s inflation rate fell to 2.8% from 3.4% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) fell from 3.7% to 3.2% y/y. The sharp decline in inflationary pressures precludes further policy tightening by the Bank of Canada.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) increased by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.38% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed positive by 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.64%.

ECB officials are becoming less hawkish in their statements. If earlier almost all officials in one voice said about at least two rate hikes of 0.25% at each of them, now the tone of speech has changed, and now some politicians expect one rate hike of 0.25%, and the September decision will depend on incoming data. Apparently, the decline in global inflation, along with weak Eurozone GDP reports, made the officials reconsider their plans for further policy tightening.

Gold rose sharply yesterday after US retail sales rose less than expected in June, putting pressure on US Treasury yields and the US dollar. The US dollar’s overreaction to lower inflation and retail sales suggests that the market is in no mood to buy the dollar amid a growing view that the Fed is close to ending its tightening cycle. The market expects rate cuts from around mid-2024, with nearly five rate cuts by the end of next year. For gold and silver, this is a fundamental strengthening factor for the coming months.

Crude oil prices rose sharply on Tuesday after Chinese officials said the government would soon implement more pro-consumption policies, as data this week showed the country’s economy barely grew in the second quarter.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up by 1.16% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.21%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday positive by 0.42%.

New Zealand’s inflation rate fell from 6.7% to 6% on an annualized basis. Over the last quarter, the consumer price index posted a 1.1% increase, the lowest since the first quarter of 2021. The RBNZ said in its monetary policy review last week that it expects core inflation to fall, although it did not comment on when this might happen. Nevertheless, there will be additional inflationary pressures in the next quarter as the government’s fuel tax and public transport subsidy exemptions expire on July 1.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,554.98 +32.19 (+0.71%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,951.93 +366.58 (+1.06%)

DAX (DE40)  16,125.49 +56.84 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,453.69 +47.27 (+0.64%)

USD Index  100.04 +0.10 (+0.10%)

Important events for today:
  • – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Earnings from ‘Magnificent Seven’ will determine stock markets’ path for 2023

By George Prior 

All eyes are on ‘The Magnificent Seven’ in this earnings seasons, with Tesla reporting on Wednesday, as these stocks will determine the market’s performance for the rest of this year and into 2024.

This is the assessment of Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, as Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta Platforms, all report Quarter 2 earnings in the next week or so.

He says: “Investors around the world will be pouring over the earnings and guidance reports of these major growth and tech names in the next few days.

“These mega cap companies’ values have jumped between 40% and 200% so far this year.

“These jumps have accounted for the bulk of the S&P 500’s 17% year-to-date advance and pushed-up the main stock market in the world’s largest economy to its highest level since April 2022.

“On the S&P 500, the seven stocks make up almost 30% of the index’s weight.

“Therefore, their earnings and guidance will, we expect, determine the market’s trajectory for the rest of this year and into 2024.”

The deVere CEO continues: “The Magnificent Seven are going to need robust earnings to explain their sky-high valuations.

“In addition, they will need the guidance to indicate future quarters to be higher than aniticpated for shareholders to receive additional gains. Should this not happen, we could see these stocks shed some of the advances.”

Tesla and Netflix will be the ones to watch on Wednesday. Microsoft and Meta are among those reporting next week.

Recently Nigel Green warned that the volume is “getting louder” and the “frenzy is reaching fever pitch” about the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks.

“This hype is dangerous as it could lead investors to assume that these stocks are a silver bullet to build long-term wealth – and they are not, at least not on their own.

“While I believe that exposure to these mega-cap tech stocks should be part of almost every investor’s portfolio, as they have robust fundamentals and are future-focused, especially in AI, they should not be exclusive.”

The deVere CEO concludes: “Such is their weight, the Magnificent Seven earnings we receive in the next week or so will set global investors’ portfolio positioning for the foreseeable future.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

The US reporting season is heating up. The People’s Bank of China may cut rates to support the economy

By RoboForex.com

At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.93%.

The Business Activity Index of New York State companies fell slightly in July, despite rising orders and easing inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s General Business Conditions Index fell by 1.1 to 5.5 points. A value above zero indicates growth. The median forecast in a survey of economists suggested a drop of 3.5.

Investors are awaiting quarterly results from Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) today. Sentiment toward the biggest banks strengthened last week after JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better-than-expected quarterly results, though Citi was among those whose earnings fell short of analysts’ expectations. Tesla (TSLA ) is up more than 3% after starting production of its Cybertruck in Texas, with the electric vehicle maker expected to ship about 2,000 units this year. Tesla’s quarterly report is expected this Wednesday. Ford Motor (F) shares, meanwhile, fell more than -5% after the F-150 Lightning suffered a $10,000 price cut amid increased competition from Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) and Tesla Cybertruck. Shares of telecom giant AT&T (T) fell by -6% after banks Citi and JPMorgan downgraded them to “neutral” from “buy” amid concerns that the company and others will have to incur significant costs to remove old copper cables used for telephony and other related purposes, which some say could pose an environmental hazard.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 1.12% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) closed at its opening price, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.38%. Sentiment in Europe was affected by data indicating a significant slowdown in economic growth in China, which is the main export market for major European companies. A number of speeches by ECB officials are expected this week. The comments will show what the central bank is thinking ahead of its next policy-setting meeting later this month.

Asian markets were mostly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.09% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was not trading yesterday due to Typhoon Talim, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Monday negative 0.06%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell sharply on Tuesday, catching up with the losses of its Asian peers after data showed a significant slowdown in China’s economic growth in the second quarter. Shares of major technology companies also suffered losses after strong gains last week. Baidu Inc (BIDU), Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA), and Tencent Holdings Ltd – China’s BAT trio – lost between 1.8% and 3% drop. The weak economic data also raised the likelihood of additional stimulus measures from Beijing. There is information that the People’s Bank of China (RBA) may cut interest rates further and reduce its bank reserve requirements in the third quarter in an attempt to boost growth.

The RBA’s June monetary policy report showed that Australia’s central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged because the policy was clearly restrictive, and there was a risk that a contraction in household finances could lead to a sharp downturn and higher unemployment. However, the bank maintained a warning that some tightening may be needed to contain inflation. The board considered raising the money rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% but then decided to pause

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,522.79 +17.37 (+0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,585.35 +76.32 (+0.22%)

DAX (DE40)  16,068.65 −36.42 (−0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,406.42 −28.15 (−0.38%)

USD Index  99.89 −0.02 (−0.02%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Caution Lingers On China Fears, Earnings Take Centre Stage

By JustMarkets

Asian shares flashed red on Tuesday as concerns over China’s sluggish economic recovery weighed on sentiment.

The disappointing GDP data published in the previous session along with the hefty losses posted by China’s Evergrande over two years sapped investor confidence in the world’s second-largest economy. Interestingly, European futures are pointing to a flat open, shrugging off the caution from Asia with investors focusing on key economic data and corporate earnings. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 closed at 15-month highs yesterday and could be injected with more volatility as earnings season switches into higher gear. The likes of Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and Tesla among others will announce their quarterly results this week.

In the currency arena, the dollar slightly weakened against other G10 currencies ahead of the U.S. retail sales and industrial production data released later today. Looking at commodities, oil bulls were able to draw strength from Russia’s plans to cut crude exports while gold prices nudged higher, supported by China growth fears and expectations around the Fed ending its rate hike cycle.

Dollar shaky ahead of key US data 

The pending U.S. retail sales and industrial production figures could influence monetary policy expectations before the Fed meeting next week. After the June US CPI report cooled more than expected, investors are searching for more signs of inflation slowing in the world’s largest economy. Markets are forecasting retail sales to rise 0.5% in June, marking an increase from 0.3% in the prior month. The industrial production figures are expected to hold steady in June after falling 0.2% in May. Should the incoming US data bring a positive surprise, this could refuel speculation around the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer.

Commodity Spotlight – Gold 

Gold flirted around the $1960 level this morning as market players evaluated China’s sluggish growth and speculation around the Fed ending its rate hike campaign.

The precious metal is likely to remain supported by a weaker dollar and subdued Treasury yields ahead of another busy week for financial markets. Fresh volatility could be on the cards for gold over the next few days as investors focus not only on US economic data but corporate earnings which could influence overall sentiment. Should gold experience a clean breakout and solid close above $1960, this may encourage a move towards $1985 and $2000 respectively. But if $1960 proves to be a tough resistance, prices may slip back towards $1940 and $1932.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply

By David Ubilava, University of Sydney 

The World Meteorological Organization has declared the onset of the first El Niño event in seven years. It estimates 90% probability the climatic phenomenon, involving an unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean, will develop through 2023, and be of moderate strength.

El Niño events bring hotter, drier weather to places such as Brazil, Australia and Indonesia, increasing the risk of wildfires and drought. Elsewhere, such as Peru and Ecuador, it increases rain, leading to floods.

The effects are sometimes described as a preview of “the new normal” in the wake of human-forced climate change. Of particular concern is the effect on agricultural production, and thereby the price of food – particularly “breadbasket” staples such as wheat, maize and rice.

El Niño’s global impacts are complex and multifaceted. It can potentially impact the lives of the majority of the world’s population. This is especially true for poor and rural households, whose fates are intrinsically linked with climate and farming.

The global supply and prices of most food is unlikely to move that much. The evidence from the ten El Niño events in the past five decades suggests relatively modest, and to some extent ambiguous, global price impacts. While reducing crop yield on average, these events have not resulted in a “perfect storm” of the scale to induce global “breadbasket yield shocks”.

But local effects could be severe. Even a “moderate” El Niño may significantly affect crops grown in geographically concentrated regions — for example palm oil, which primarily comes from Indonesia and Malaysia.

In some places El Niño-induced food availability and affordability issues may well lead to serious social consequences, such as conflict and hunger.

Impact on global food prices

The following graph shows the correlation between El Niño events and global food prices, as measured by the United Nations’ Food Price Index. This index tracks monthly changes in international prices of a basket of food commodities.



Despite the general inflationary pattern, there have rarely been big swings in El Niño years. Indeed, it shows prices decreasing during the two strongest El Niño episodes of the past three decades.

Other human-caused factors were at play – notably the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, and the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-2008. In 2015, prices decreased due to stronger (than expected) supply and weaker demand, when the El Niño event did not turn out to be as bad as feared.

This all suggests that El Niño does not usually play the lead role in global commodity price movements.

Impacts on wheat supply

Why? Because El Niño does induce crop failures, but for food grown around the world the losses tend to be offset by positive changes in production across other key producing regions.

For example, it can bring favourable weather to the conflict-ridden and famine-prone Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia).

A good example is wheat.

The following chart shows how El Nino has affected Australian wheat production since 1980. In six out of nine El Niño events of at least moderate strength, production has dropped significantly – in four cases, at least 30% below the “trend line” (representing the long-term average).



Australia is one of the world’s top three wheat exporters, accounting for about 13% of global exports. So its production does affect global wheat prices. But in terms of total wheat grown it’s less significant – about 3.5% of world production. And El Niño-induced crop failures tend to be offset by production in other key wheat-producing regions.

The next graph compare changes in Australia’s wheat production with other significant wheat exporters in El Niño years. Dips in Australia’s production tend tend to be offset by changes elsewhere.



In 1994, for example, Australian wheat production dropped nearly 50% but barely changed elsewhere. In 1982, when Australian production dropped 30%, Argentina’s production was 50% higher. Such balancing patterns tends to be present across most El Niño years.

But some will bear the cost

That said, there will be at least some negative effects. Even if crop failures in one region are fully offset by rich harvests in others, some people are going to bear the costs of El Niño’s direct impact.

Australian farmers, for example, will be worse off if local wheat yields drop while global prices remain relatively stable.

Moreover, because most countries are connected via trade, El Niño will have wider economic impacts. It could still lead to deeper societal issues in some region, such as famine and agro-pastoral conflicts.

These effects may also be nuanced. For example, poor harvests in Africa may mitigate seasonal violence linked with the appropriation of agricultural surpluses. But considering other vulnerabilities around the world, the odds are that even a moderate El Niño will make already dire socio-economic conditions in some countries worse.

Most of the usual warnings about the caveats of climate change apply here. The difference, of course, is that all this is happening now.The Conversation

About the Author:

David Ubilava, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.