InvestMacro

USD/JPY on Pause: Yen Slows After Sharp Rally

USD/JPY settled at 154.29 on Tuesday, with the yen pausing its rally after a notable surge of nearly 3.2% in the previous two sessions. This move was driven by growing concerns about a possible coordinated currency intervention between Japan and the US.

The market was boosted by news that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had requested USD/JPY levels from dealers on Friday. At the same time, Japanese officials confirmed that they were in close communication with the US on currency policy and potential market actions.

However, Bank of Japan (BoJ) data suggested that the sharp yen appreciation on Friday was unlikely to be due to direct intervention. This speculation intensified the market’s reaction and speculative positioning.

The yen continued to receive support from the broader weakness of the US dollar, driven by rising geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, as well as expectations that US President Donald Trump might replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell with a softer candidate, further pressuring the US currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a correction wave following the previous decline. A continuation of the growth wave to the 155.00 level is possible today. After this rise, a rebound from the resistance level is expected, with the first target for a further decline at 153.00, followed by 152.00. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as the histogram is below zero and rising, with the signal line likely to cross the histogram and turn upwards soon.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is testing the 153.80 mark and forming a growth wave. If the price tests the 155.00 level and rebounds, further declines could be expected, with the first support at 153.00 USD. The Stochastic oscillator supports this, as its signal lines continue to decline towards the 50.0 level. A break of this level would signal a continuation of the downward trend.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has paused its rapid ascent amid speculation of potential currency intervention. Despite a weaker US dollar and geopolitical risks, the yen’s recent strength is being tested. Technically, while the immediate outlook points to a possible short-term rise to 155.00, a rebound and subsequent decline towards 153.00 could be on the horizon, depending on how market sentiment evolves.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Jan

Silver Surges Past $108 for the First Time. Natural Gas Hits $6/MMBtu

By JustMarkets

On Friday, US stock markets closed mixed. The Dow Jones (US30) declined by 0.58% (-0.74% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) edged up 0.03% (-0.65% for the week). The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) gained 0.34% (-0.41% for the week). Energy companies led the day’s gains, and the technology segment was bolstered by Nvidia (+1.5%) and AMD (+2.3%) following signals from China regarding potential orders for H200 AI chips. Conversely, a sharp 17% drop in Intel shares, triggered by a weak forecast and news of operational challenges, weighed on the semiconductor sector and pulled down Broadcom, limiting overall gains. Macroeconomic data provided a conflicting picture: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a multi-month high, yet preliminary S&P Global PMIs pointed to a moderate slowdown in both services and manufacturing.

Geopolitical tensions escalated as US President Donald Trump threatened Canada with 100% tariffs on all exports to the US if Ottawa moves forward with a trade agreement with China, labeling such a move a “strategic error.” This follows Canada’s recent steps toward Beijing, including agreements to increase Chinese EV imports. Prime Minister Mark Carney stated he expects China to lower tariffs on Canadian canola following his recent meeting with Xi Jinping, the first visit by a Canadian leader to Beijing in eight years.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened past the 17.4 mark against the dollar, returning to its June 2024 highs after a brief correction. Previously, the currency faced pressure from a global flight to safety amid US-Europe trade frictions sparked by Trump’s statements on Greenland. The peso’s recovery highlights its fundamental resilience, supported by the Bank of Mexico’s hawkish stance. The suspension of the easing cycle, with the key rate held at 7%, provides attractive real yields and continues to draw foreign investor interest into local debt instruments.

European equity markets mostly trended lower on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18% (-0.16% for the week), while France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell 0.07% (+0.22% for the week). Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.67% (+0.23% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) slipped 0.07% (-0.90% for the week). In a sudden pivot at the Davos conference, President Trump temporarily walked back threats of tariffs against European countries that opposed the US acquisition of Greenland, citing a “framework deal” with NATO. While this eased immediate political tension, uncertainty regarding Washington’s long-term strategy remains. Macro data showed steady private-sector expansion in the Eurozone, as reflected in PMIs, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain its current policy.

Silver (XAG) made history by breaking the $ 108-per-ounce threshold, driven by a weakening dollar, geopolitical strife, and economic uncertainty. The US dollar came under pressure as markets worried Europe might leverage its vast US assets in response to the Greenland crisis. Beyond macro factors, silver’s rally was fueled by a massive short squeeze, robust retail demand, and China’s tightening of export controls on industrial metals.

On Monday, US Natural Gas prices (XNG) surged by over 17%, exceeding $6/MMBtu for the first time since late 2022, as a historic winter storm gripped the nation. Prices have nearly doubled in the last two weeks, the largest gain on record, due to forecasts for sustained arctic temperatures. Inventory reports showed a larger-than-expected withdrawal of 120 billion cubic feet, and analysts anticipate further drawdowns as heating demand intensifies.
Asian markets showed mixed performance last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.86%, while the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.99%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed the week down 0.27%.

The Singapore dollar (SGD) has strengthened to approximately 1.27 against the US dollar, marking its highest level since October 2014. This appreciation is fueled by capital inflows into safe-haven assets and market expectations that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will maintain its current policy stance. The currency remains in steady demand due to its “safe haven” status, underpinned by Singapore’s AAA-rated bond market, high stock market dividend yields, and predictable economic policy amid heightened global uncertainty.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,915.61 +2.26 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,098.71 −285.30 (−0.58%)

DAX (DE40) 24,900.71 +44.24 (+0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,143.44 −6.61 (−0.07%)

USD Index 97.46 -0.90% (-0.92%)

News feed for: 2026.01.26

German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2). – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Jan

Gold Surges Above 5,000 USD: Safe-Haven Demand Explodes

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has broken through the historic 5,000 USD per troy ounce mark, rising above 5,075 USD for the first time. The metal continues its record rally as investors aggressively shift into defensive assets amid escalating trade and geopolitical uncertainty.

The main catalyst was renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump. Over the weekend, he stated that Washington would seek sovereignty over parts of Greenland where US military bases are located. These comments reignited market anxiety, coming just days after a temporary easing of tariff threats against several European countries.

Further pressure on global markets followed Trump’s warning to Canada. He stated that all Canadian exports to the US could face 100% tariffs if Ottawa finalises a trade agreement with China. The statement came a week after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a preliminary deal with Beijing, which involves a mutual reduction in tariffs.

Geopolitical risks also remain elevated. Ukraine and Russia held another round of US-mediated talks without reaching an agreement, although both sides signalled readiness to continue negotiations next weekend.

As a result, rising geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade threats have sharply increased capital inflows into gold, further strengthening its role as the primary global safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAUUSD chart, gold has confidently broken above 5,000 and is now developing a strong bullish wave towards the 5,215 level. After reaching this area, a corrective pullback towards 5,000 is possible. The MACD confirms strong upside momentum, with the signal line at highs and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the price has broken and consolidated above the 5,050 level, which is acting as support. The trend is expected to extend towards 5,200. The Stochastic oscillator supports this bullish scenario, with the signal line above 50 and continuing to rise.

Conclusion

Gold has entered a new historical phase above 5,000 USD, driven by escalating geopolitical risks and aggressive US trade rhetoric. As long as uncertainty around global politics and trade persists, gold is likely to remain strongly supported, with further upside potential despite the risk of short-term technical corrections.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

25 Jan

Currency Speculators boost Australian Dollar bets to 58-Week High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,835 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,595 contracts), the British Pound (3,290 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (465 contracts), the Japanese Yen (335 contracts), Bitcoin (229 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (185 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-20,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,688 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-759 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-233 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the Currency Market Speculator Positions this week were the AUD, MXN, Euro & Dollar Index

The Australian Dollar speculative bets lead off the highlights this week as the AUD bets rose for an eighth consecutive week. Over this eight-week span, the Aussie Dollar speculative net position has improved by over 70,000 contracts. Despite that improvement, the Australian Dollar net position remains in bearish territory at -14,011 net positions at this time. This is actually the best standing for the Australian dollar speculative bets since all the way back to December of 2024, a span of 58 consecutive weeks that this currency has been in a bearish net position. The Australian Dollar, in the currency markets, has been on the rise and jumped this week by over 3%. It is now up by over 12% since January of 2025. Currently trading around 0.6887, the AUD is at its highest level since September of 2024 and with further upside momentum, we could see a challenge of the 0.70 significant psychological level soon.

Coming up next is the Mexican Peso, which saw speculator bets rise this week for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and for the tenth time over the past 14 weeks. The Peso has been in an overall bullish position for approximately one year now, dating back to January 21st of 2025. Peso positions have been gaining steadily over the past 52 weeks and have now been above the +100,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks and for six out of the last seven weeks, indicating the strong sentiment for the MXN at this time. The Peso exchange rate is on a strong uptrend at the moment versus the US Dollar, and has seen a strong monthly gain to start the new year with gains in eight out of the last nine weeks. The MXN is now at the highest price level since June of 2024 and is up by over 20% in the last 52 weeks.

The Euro common currency’s speculative bets fell sharply for a second consecutive week, and have now declined by over -50,000 contracts in just the past two weeks. However, the Euro has been in a super strong position and indicates a likely profit-taking dip as the net speculative contracts have been above the +100,000 net contract level for 28 out of the last 32 weeks, including for the last eight consecutive weeks. The Euro currency closed out this week above the 1.18 level in the forex market after hitting support last week and rebounding off of the 1.1620 area. What a difference a year makes as last January, the Euro currency was trading around just 1.0250. And since then, the currency has risen by about 15%. Time will tell if the Euro can break above the 1.1865 resistance area that has stopped its ascent multiple times since June.

The US Dollar Index position dropped this week by over -2,500 contracts after seeing seven straight weeks of gains previously. The US Dollar Index net positions have now been in an overall bearish level for the past 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. The Dollar Index price has been on a strong downtrend for the past year and this week closed under the 97.50 level with an almost 2% drop on the week. Compared to last January, when this currency was trading around the 1.09 to 1.10 levels, USD Index is now currently lower by approximately 11%.

Currency Markets 5-Day Price Performance led by NZD & AUD

The best returning currency this week was the New Zealand Dollar which showed a 3.36% gain, while the Australian Dollar came in at a similar 3.13% rise over these past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 2.74%, followed by the British Pound with a 1.92% gain and the Euro with a 1.91% gain. The Brazilian Real was higher by 1.60%, while the Canadian Dollar was up by 1.59%. The Mexican Peso rose by 1.4%, and the Japanese Yen showed an increase by 1.45%.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index dropped by -1.90% over these past five days while Bitcoin saw the biggest decline with a -6.23% drop.

The leaders over the past 30 days are the Mexican Peso, with a gain of approximately 4% over that time, with a 3.8% rise, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 3.45%. The Peso and the Australian Dollar also lead the past 90 days percent changes, with the Peso up by 5.7% over that time and the Australian Dollar higher by 4.26%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (82 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), Australian Dollar (66 percent) and Bitcoin (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and the British Pound (30 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (34.1 percent)
EuroFX (71.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (66.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (82.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.9 percent)
Bitcoin (59.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.2 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (23 percent), the US Dollar Index (20 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-17 percent), EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (20.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.7 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (22.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	30.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.8	9.2	9.0
– Net Position:	-6,418	6,305	113
– Gross Longs:	16,003	9,023	2,762
– Gross Shorts:	22,421	2,718	2,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	3.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.8	73.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-19.9	-2.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 111,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	55.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	73.1	5.6
– Net Position:	111,695	-155,596	43,901
– Gross Longs:	275,235	488,166	92,941
– Gross Shorts:	163,540	643,762	49,040
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.3	28.2	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	11.6	-14.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.2	43.8	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.8	35.6	13.7
– Net Position:	-21,980	17,082	4,898
– Gross Longs:	81,332	91,023	33,243
– Gross Shorts:	103,312	73,941	28,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	66.9	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-26.2	35.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,164 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	39.5	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	25.4	13.5
– Net Position:	-44,829	41,140	3,689
– Gross Longs:	107,139	115,583	43,047
– Gross Shorts:	151,968	74,443	39,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.3	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	14.9	7.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	73.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.5	24.4	19.0
– Net Position:	-43,207	47,972	-4,765
– Gross Longs:	12,257	71,873	13,860
– Gross Shorts:	55,464	23,901	18,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	77.7	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	8.8	-3.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	56.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.4	34.7	15.0
– Net Position:	-41,785	45,990	-4,205
– Gross Longs:	59,456	120,142	27,744
– Gross Shorts:	101,241	74,152	31,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	30.5	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-40.8	10.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	43.6	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	48.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-14,011	-11,787	25,798
– Gross Longs:	85,759	100,608	42,698
– Gross Shorts:	99,770	112,395	16,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	22.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.7	-33.9	17.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	79.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.3	24.6	5.3
– Net Position:	-49,610	50,811	-1,201
– Gross Longs:	13,670	73,619	3,742
– Gross Shorts:	63,280	22,808	4,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	91.2	36.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-8.7	6.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 107,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.9	32.4	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	79.1	1.2
– Net Position:	107,153	-111,938	4,785
– Gross Longs:	153,398	77,773	7,650
– Gross Shorts:	46,245	189,711	2,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.4	17.6	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-0.6	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	26.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	53.0	1.2
– Net Position:	17,641	-21,265	3,624
– Gross Longs:	53,730	21,911	4,628
– Gross Shorts:	36,089	43,176	1,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	46.1	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	27.6	6.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	3.8	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.6	5.6	4.6
– Net Position:	298	-445	147
– Gross Longs:	19,841	940	1,285
– Gross Shorts:	19,543	1,385	1,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	46.7	45.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-2.2	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

25 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Steel, Palladium & Russell-2000 lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score totaled a gain of 20 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 11,671 net contracts this week with an increase by 649 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Palladium speculator level is now at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the strength score was a rise by 6 percentage points this week.

The overall speculator position registered 888 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -337 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Russell speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a strong boost of 33 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 20,563 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,126 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is also at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an increase by 8 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 24,569 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,784 contracts in the speculator bets.

Copper

The Copper speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Copper speculator level sits at na 82 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop of -9 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 52,575 net contracts this week with a decline of -866 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Natural Gas speculator level at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -61 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was -193,490 contracts this week with a decrease of -7,889 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -14 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -17,874 net contracts this week with a decrease of -8,378 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the Sugar speculator level residing at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was small bump up by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -178,348 net contracts this week with a slide by -12,637 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with the NZD speculator level sitting at an 8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain by 8 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -49,610 net contracts this week with a change of -759 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at just a 13 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 7 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 78,792 net contracts this week with a boost by 20,664 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

25 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals markets was Steel with an increase by 649 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-6,846 contracts), Gold (-6,468 contracts), Platinum (-2,470 contracts), Copper (-866 contracts) and with Palladium (-337 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

5-Day Metals Market Price Performance led by Platinum

Platinum leads the past five days metals price performance as Platinum shot up by over 20%, followed by Palladium which jumped by 13.10% over that same period. Silver continued its hot streak with 11.51% gains over the past five days, followed by Gold with a rise of 8.19%. Steel was also up by 5.3% in that timeframe. Copper was the only market on the downside this week, with a minor dip by -0.68%.

The metals markets have been raging higher over the past 30 days, with Silver up by over 68%, followed by Platinum, which has seen a 67.39% gain in 30 days. Palladium is up by 37% in the past 30 days, while gold has run 18% higher and Copper is up by approximately 12%. Steel rounds out the past 30 days leaders with an approximately 10% gain.

The leaders over the past 90 days have been Silver, with a 139% gain, followed by Platinum, which is up by over 103%. Palladium has seen a 75% gain in the past 90 days, followed by Gold with a 35% rise, Copper with a 25% rise, and Steel is up over 40% in that same time. Truly an unprecedented time for metals strength.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (98 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores with Gold (71.1 percent) following.

On the lower side, Silver (44 percent) and Platinum (49 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels of the metals currently although both markets are right around the midpoint for the past 3-years (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (71.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (73.7 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.2 percent)
Copper (82.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (83.0 percent)
Platinum (48.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.0 percent)
Palladium (97.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (20 percent) and Gold (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Silver (-26 percent), Platinum (-12 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.8 percent)
Silver (-26.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.6 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.0 percent)
Palladium (6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.4 percent)
Steel (19.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (27.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 244,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	16.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	244,770	-289,689	44,919
– Gross Longs:	295,772	85,869	62,136
– Gross Shorts:	51,002	375,558	17,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	20.1	97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-10.9	18.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 25,214 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	28.8	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	59.3	9.5
– Net Position:	25,214	-46,389	21,175
– Gross Longs:	42,965	43,723	35,608
– Gross Shorts:	17,751	90,112	14,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	49.2	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	18.0	27.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	30.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	55.8	3.0
– Net Position:	52,575	-69,186	16,611
– Gross Longs:	101,631	86,077	24,890
– Gross Shorts:	49,056	155,263	8,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	10.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	6.0	15.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	25.1	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	52.7	4.9
– Net Position:	15,124	-21,782	6,658
– Gross Longs:	39,709	19,867	10,541
– Gross Shorts:	24,585	41,649	3,883
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	50.3	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	9.0	14.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	28.5	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	42.9	7.4
– Net Position:	888	-2,762	1,874
– Gross Longs:	9,644	5,457	3,301
– Gross Shorts:	8,756	8,219	1,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	0.8	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.4	4.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	58.1	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	90.4	0.5
– Net Position:	11,671	-12,098	427
– Gross Longs:	14,235	21,805	611
– Gross Shorts:	2,564	33,903	184
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	89.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.6	-20.5	33.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

25 Jan

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (214,865 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (132,601 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (79,758 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13,920 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-137,251 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-70,989 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-36,905 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-23,725 contracts) and with the SOFR 1-Month (-689 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bond Market Price were relatively unchanged on the week

The bond market price changes this week were relatively muted. The one-month SOFR and the three-month SOFR markets were a bit higher over the past 5 days at 0.06% and 0.04% gains, respectively. The two-year bond also edged up by 0.04%, while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged.

The five-year bond edged lower at -0.16, followed by the 10-year note, which saw a minor dip of -0.36, and the long US Treasury bond was lower by -0.43. Over the past 30 days, the bond markets have not seen much movement, with no market seeing a move higher or lower by over one percent. Over the past 90 days, the Fed Funds is up by 1.80% while on the downside, the 10-year note is lower by -1.23% and the long US Treasury bond is lower by -2.47%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 10-Year Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (26 percent), the 5-Year Bond (26 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (44.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (64.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (25.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (58.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (46.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (42.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (88.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (74.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (30.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (33.2 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (31 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (31.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (19.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (12.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-15.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-10.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -137,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	62.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	59.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-77,811	57,423	20,388
– Gross Longs:	367,713	1,368,009	53,049
– Gross Shorts:	445,524	1,310,586	32,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	53.0	89.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.2	53.0	21.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -595,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -524,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	56.8	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	52.2	0.3
– Net Position:	-595,601	596,564	-963
– Gross Longs:	1,736,807	7,384,520	33,194
– Gross Shorts:	2,332,408	6,787,956	34,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	70.4	77.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.4	15.5	-0.2

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -273,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	69.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	51.7	0.0
– Net Position:	-273,872	273,962	-90
– Gross Longs:	249,472	1,063,233	174
– Gross Shorts:	523,344	789,271	264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	70.0	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.5	2.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,225,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 79,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,304,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	49.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,225,122	1,115,768	109,354
– Gross Longs:	752,084	3,395,299	245,486
– Gross Shorts:	1,977,206	2,279,531	136,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.6	75.4	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-18.6	0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,136,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 132,601 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,269,120 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	81.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.4	4.4
– Net Position:	-2,136,519	1,990,497	146,022
– Gross Longs:	603,975	5,528,980	440,705
– Gross Shorts:	2,740,494	3,538,483	294,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	73.8	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-13.5	-0.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -655,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 214,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -870,505 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	73.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	63.9	6.2
– Net Position:	-655,640	573,096	82,544
– Gross Longs:	861,222	4,248,520	441,892
– Gross Shorts:	1,516,862	3,675,424	359,348
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	41.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	3.0	-17.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -235,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,920 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	78.6	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	64.8	13.1
– Net Position:	-235,282	352,921	-117,639
– Gross Longs:	308,830	2,021,438	219,966
– Gross Shorts:	544,112	1,668,517	337,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	68.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-15.0	-54.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,070 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	76.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	81.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-23,070	-93,965	117,035
– Gross Longs:	170,563	1,395,383	247,802
– Gross Shorts:	193,633	1,489,348	130,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	16.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-0.6	-9.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -258,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	71.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-258,822	253,269	5,553
– Gross Longs:	149,136	1,791,990	187,039
– Gross Shorts:	407,958	1,538,721	181,486
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	39.1	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	16.4	-20.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

25 Jan

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude & Heating Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (20,664 contracts) with Heating Oil (1,533 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (17 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Brent Oil (-8,263 contracts), Natural Gas (-7,889 contracts) and with Gasoline (-1,747 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas leads Weekly Energy Price Performances

The energy market price performance was led by the surging Natural Gas price. Natural Gas jumped higher in the past five days by over 35% while the Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest, with a 5.96% gain on the week. Heating Oil was up by over 5% while WTI Crude Oil rose by 3.96%, followed by Brent Oil with a 3.75% rise, and then Gasoline which rose by 3.25%.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index has been on a strong uptrend and is the price leader for the past 30 days with an 11% gain. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is the leader over the past 90 days as well with the Index being higher by approximately 18% in that time-frame.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Index, Gasoline, & Heating Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (80.6 percent), Gasoline (65.3 percent) and Heating Oil (64.6 percent) lead the energy markets this week.

On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (12.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (21.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (5.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (32.8 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.5 percent)
Gasoline (65.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (67.2 percent)
Heating Oil (64.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (62.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (80.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (80.5 percent)

Bloomberg Index & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (70.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. WTI Crude (6.6 percent) is the next highest positive mover with a much more modest gain in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-60.9 percent), Gasoline (-24.1 percent) and Brent Oil (-13.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-60.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-41.4 percent)
Gasoline (-24.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-32.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-5.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-11.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (70.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (61.5 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 78,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	41.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	46.8	2.5
– Net Position:	78,792	-97,047	18,255
– Gross Longs:	284,809	821,803	67,044
– Gross Shorts:	206,017	918,850	48,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	87.2	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.7	-3.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	37.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	20.8	2.3
– Net Position:	-42,150	38,875	3,275
– Gross Longs:	48,278	88,910	8,766
– Gross Shorts:	90,428	50,035	5,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	78.7	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	11.8	17.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -193,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	37.5	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	26.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-193,490	182,060	11,430
– Gross Longs:	241,131	604,854	59,623
– Gross Shorts:	434,621	422,794	48,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-60.9	65.5	-25.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	48.4	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	65.8	3.9
– Net Position:	70,780	-79,205	8,425
– Gross Longs:	109,470	220,697	26,230
– Gross Shorts:	38,690	299,902	17,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.3	32.6	70.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	23.9	-11.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	48.9	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	57.3	7.8
– Net Position:	16,044	-32,938	16,894
– Gross Longs:	62,563	193,349	47,815
– Gross Shorts:	46,519	226,287	30,921
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	35.2	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	10.2	-17.8

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	69.6	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	66.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-5,781	5,143	638
– Gross Longs:	52,210	131,824	676
– Gross Shorts:	57,991	126,681	38
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	17.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	17.7	47.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	70.8	-70.7	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

25 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (29,678 contracts) with Lean Hogs (14,919 contracts), Live Cattle (3,410 contracts) and Cotton (1,607 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-23,547 contracts), Corn (-18,281 contracts), Sugar (-12,637 contracts) Cocoa (-8,378 contracts), Wheat (-7,705 contracts), Coffee (-2,989 contracts) and with Soybeans (-818 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Performance was led this week by Wheat and Soybean Oil

Wheat led the soft commodities price performances of the week with a 3.39% increase over the past five days. Soybean Oil came in a close second with a 3.38% rise over the same period. Lean Hogs had an up week with a 2.19% rise, while Corn was also higher by 2.17%. Soybeans rose by 1.74% on the week, Sugar gained by 0.74%, and Live Cattle rounded out the gainers with a 0.73% increase.

Cocoa saw a dip by -0.78%, followed by Cotton with a decline of -0.90%, and Coffee with a -1.30% decrease. Soybean Meal saw the biggest fall this week with a -4.74% slide.

The price performance leaders over the past 30 days have been Lean Hogs, up by 9.12%, and Soybean Oil, up over 6% in that period. Cocoa is by far the biggest leader over the past 90 days with a 31.44% gain.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (66 percent) and Lean Hogs (66 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (57 percent) and Coffee (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Wheat (22 percent) and the Cotton (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (31.7 percent)
Sugar (4.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.3 percent)
Coffee (53.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.1 percent)
Soybeans (56.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (56.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (46.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.2 percent)
Live Cattle (66.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (66.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.6 percent)
Cotton (23.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.9 percent)
Wheat (21.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.5 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Live Cattle (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cotton (6 percent) and Sugar (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-57 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-35 percent), Soybean Meal (-19 percent) and Corn (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.4 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (-5.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-2.6 percent)
Soybeans (-35.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-41.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-21.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-18.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-20.2 percent)
Live Cattle (13.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.9 percent)
Cotton (6.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.9 percent)
Cocoa (-14.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (-57.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-52.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	47.1	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	43.1	9.5
– Net Position:	-51,704	68,044	-16,340
– Gross Longs:	329,434	786,229	142,160
– Gross Shorts:	381,138	718,185	158,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	67.5	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	17.0	8.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -178,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	57.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	38.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-178,348	190,230	-11,882
– Gross Longs:	143,656	564,457	69,420
– Gross Shorts:	322,004	374,227	81,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	96.7	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	0.4	-8.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	40.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	58.3	4.1
– Net Position:	29,763	-30,151	388
– Gross Longs:	56,009	69,268	7,449
– Gross Shorts:	26,246	99,419	7,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	49.0	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	5.9	-19.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 58,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	51.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	56.1	8.4
– Net Position:	58,129	-39,788	-18,341
– Gross Longs:	173,031	429,894	51,801
– Gross Shorts:	114,902	469,682	70,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	43.5	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.0	35.3	9.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 29,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	49.5	4.6
– Net Position:	4,543	-5,045	502
– Gross Longs:	123,574	316,601	30,092
– Gross Shorts:	119,031	321,646	29,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	56.9	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	3.8	-13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -23,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 757 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	52.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	50.5	5.7
– Net Position:	-22,790	8,261	14,529
– Gross Longs:	112,415	274,052	44,344
– Gross Shorts:	135,205	265,791	29,815
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	78.5	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	20.0	-17.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 89,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	33.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	56.7	12.3
– Net Position:	89,349	-77,472	-11,877
– Gross Longs:	147,002	109,484	28,606
– Gross Shorts:	57,653	186,956	40,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	27.9	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-18.8	7.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 56,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,919 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	33.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	48.7	8.7
– Net Position:	56,397	-49,048	-7,349
– Gross Longs:	134,411	113,181	21,820
– Gross Shorts:	78,014	162,229	29,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	36.4	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-26.1	3.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,824 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	46.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	39.7	3.7
– Net Position:	-25,824	23,415	2,409
– Gross Longs:	92,421	158,038	14,887
– Gross Shorts:	118,245	134,623	12,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	75.2	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.8	27.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -17,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	48.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	36.0	7.0
– Net Position:	-17,874	18,722	-848
– Gross Longs:	26,157	71,172	9,372
– Gross Shorts:	44,031	52,450	10,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	12.4	13.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -93,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	37.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	20.1	5.6
– Net Position:	-93,730	90,844	2,886
– Gross Longs:	124,615	195,236	32,217
– Gross Shorts:	218,345	104,392	29,331
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	78.5	71.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-57.4	57.4	40.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

23 Jan

Week Ahead: US500 bulls set to charge 7,000 milestone?

By ForexTime

FXTM’s US500 ↑ 1% YTD
Trading less than 1% away from 7,000 milestone
Fed decision + big tech earnings = market action?
“Mag 7” titans = almost 34% of US500 weight
Technical levels: 6800, 6950 and 7000

The final trading week of January could end with a bang thanks to a volley of high-impact events.

Top-level data, central bank decisions and big tech earnings will dominate the week ahead:

Monday, 26th January

EUR: Germany Ifo Business Climate (Jan)
USD: US Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Tuesday, 27th January

AUD: Australia NAB Business Confidence (Dec)
USD: US Conference Board consumer confidence
WTI: US API Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Jan 23)

Wednesday, 28th January

AUD: Australia Inflation Rate (Dec)
EUR: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)
CAD: BoC Interest Rate Decision
USD: Fed Interest Rate Decision
US500: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla earnings

Thursday, 29th January

NZD: New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Jan)
JPY: Japan Consumer Confidence (Jan)
CHF: SNB rate decision
EUR: Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Jan)
US500: Apple earnings

Friday, 30th January

JPY: Tokyo CPI, jobless rate, industrial production, retail sales
EUR: Germany GDP (Q4); Germany Inflation Rate (Jan); Eurozone GDP (Q4)
TWN: Taiwan GDP
CAD: Canada GDP (Nov, Dec)
US30: US PPI (Dec), Chevron earnings

Our focus falls on FXTM’s US500, which has gained just over 1% year-to-date.

Equities appear to be on the rebound after easing geopolitical risk surrounding Greenland lifted global sentiment.

Note: Trump has announced a “framework for a future deal” with NATO that will provide the US total and permanent access to Greenland.

With investors redirecting their attention back toward macro forces and tech, further upside could be on the cards ahead of big tech earnings and Fed rate decision.

Examining the charts, FXTM’s US500 remains in a bullish channel with the next key checkpoint at 7,000.

With all the above said, here are 3 factors that could trigger significant price swings:

1) Fed rate decision – Wednesday 28th Jan

The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in January but any clues on future policy moves may rock the US500.

President Donald Trump is expected to announce his new pick to lead the Federal Reserve by the end of the month. Speculation around who this could be may translate to additional levels of volatility.

According to Polymarket, it may be Kevin Warsh or Rick Rieder.

Traders are currently pricing a 30% chance that the Fed cuts rates by April with this jumping to 75% by June.

FXTM’s US500 may jump if the Fed signals that lower rates are down the road.
A cautious sounding Fed could cap upside gains on the index.

Note: The US500 is forecast to move 1% higher or 0.3% lower in a six-hour period post-release.

2) Big tech earnings

Four of the so-called “Magnificent” 7 tech giants with a combined market cap of over $10 trillion are set to publish their results in the week ahead.

Quarterly results from Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple could provide fresh insight into how the industry fared last quarter amid concerns over an AI bubble.

Considering that the combined weight of Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple makes up roughly 16% of the US500, the incoming earnings could mean business.

A solid set of results and optimistic forward guidance from tech titans may propel the US500 higher.
Should results disappoint and concerns be expressed about the earnings outlook, the US500 could fall.

3) Technical force

The US500 has staged a rebound on the daily charts with bulls back in the game. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the RSI signals further upside momentum.

A solid weekly close above the 6950 level may open the doors toward the 7000 milestone and beyond.
If prices slip below the 50-day SMA, this could trigger a decline toward 6800 and the 100-day SMA at 6770.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.