InvestMacro

EUR/USD Declines: All Market Risks Remain Valid

EUR/USD fell to 1.1549 on Monday, with the US dollar extending gains from the previous session amid heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the Middle East conflict escalates.

The confrontation between the US and Israel against Iran has entered its fourth week with no signs of de-escalation. Donald Trump has threatened to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Tehran has announced it is prepared to attack key US and Israeli targets in the region in response.

Elevated oil prices continue to fuel inflationary concerns and reduce the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. Some market participants are even beginning to consider the possibility of a rate hike later this year.

Last week, the Fed held rates steady as expected. Jerome Powell noted that it remains too early to assess the full economic impact of the Iran conflict.

The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan also left rates unchanged but signalled their readiness to tighten policy further should inflationary pressures persist.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1526. An upside breakout is expected, with a continuation wave towards 1.1647 as a near-term target. Subsequently, a new downward wave is anticipated to 1.1529. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator – its signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards, reflecting ongoing bullish momentum and the potential for the uptrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave towards 1.1499. After reaching this level, a rebound to 1.1556 is expected, with potential for the subsequent growth wave to extend to 1.1647. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator – its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains under pressure as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to drive safe-haven demand for the US dollar. With the conflict entering its fourth week and oil prices remaining elevated, inflationary concerns persist, delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts. Central banks across major economies remain alert, keeping tightening on the table. While technical indicators suggest potential short-term rebound, the broader outlook for the euro remains fragile as market risks show no signs of abating.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Mar

Currency Speculators sharply drop Euro, CAD bets while boosting GBP, CHF & AUD

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by GBP, Swiss Franc, Australian & New Zealand Dollars

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was British Pound (18,682 contracts) with the Swiss Franc (15,879 contracts), the Australian Dollar (14,864 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (14,054 contracts), the US Dollar Index (9,575 contracts) and Bitcoin (471 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-84,012 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-35,273 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-26,393 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-5,351 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-1,711 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply drop Euro, CAD bets while boosting GBP, CHF & AUD

The COT market data for Currencies this week saw a bunch of extremely significant changes in the speculator positioning through Tuesday.

First off, the biggest mover on the week was the Euro, which saw a gigantic drawback in speculative bullish bets by -84,012 contracts. This marks the biggest drawdown for one week in Euro futures history. The Euro position has now fallen for five consecutive weeks, and that has taken off roughly -160,000 contracts from the bullish position, which has now fallen to a paltry +21,132 net contracts this week. This breaks a streak of fifteen consecutive weeks where the net contract position was over 100,000 contracts. In the currency exchange market, the Euro managed to have a gaining week after a couple of strong down weeks and trades right below the psychological 1.1600 resistance level, with support below at the 1.1475 to 1.1500 exchange levels.

Next up, the Canadian Dollar contracts saw a similar shortfall on the week with a -35,273 net contract decline this week. Unlike the Euro, the Canadian Dollar contracts had been ascending over the past weeks – as speculator contracts had risen in seven out of the previous eight weeks and had pushed the net contract position up to a +36,159 net contract position on March 10th. After this week’s sharp decline, the net position is virtually unchanged at a small +886 net speculator position. The CAD price in the currency markets has been treading water without much direction recently with the CAD ranging between 0.7200 and 0.7400 over the past eight weeks.

On the plus side, the British Pound Sterling saw a strong rise this week after declining in the previous five consecutive weeks. This week’s gain by over +18,000 net contracts was the highest weekly gain out of the past three months dating back to December 16th, 2025. However, the British Pound Sterling net position remains bearish. Overall, this currency speculator position has now been in a continuous bearish position for the past 34 weeks, dating back to July 22nd of 2025. In the Foreign Exchange Markets, the British Pound Sterling against the US Dollar saw a modest rise this week for the first time out of the past four weeks and now trades right around the 1.3300 exchange level. The Pound Sterling has recently been retreating after reaching a high in January around the 1.3870 level.

The Swiss Franc saw strong speculator demand this week with a gain of over +15,000 contracts. The Swiss Franc speculator position is usually a safe haven bid, and you would typically think the speculator position would be super strong. But there has been quite a lot of hedging in the Swiss Franc futures markets, so many of the moves are counterintuitive. However, this week obviously saw some safe haven speculator bids. While the Franchas been super strong in the Exchange Markets against the US Dollar, with the price of the Franc up around 17% higher since the beginning of January 2025. Currently, the Franc against the US Dollar trades at the 1.2797 exchange rate and has been as high as 1.3219 in late January.

The Australian Dollar, on the other hand, has been traditionally the anti-safe haven or high beta and usually plummets along with weakened speculator sentiment in uncertain times. However, the Australian Dollar continues to see strong speculator inflows. Speculator positions have gained in 15 out of the past 16 weeks, with an inflow of +153,237 net contracts over that time. This has brought the overall speculator position to a bullish level of +69,061 net contracts. This is the highest level for a standing speculator position since 2017, or a difference of about 441 weeks. The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar in the forex market dipped this week but remains trading right at the important psychological support and resistance level of 0.7000.

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position also saw strong inflows this week with a weekly gain of 14,054 net contracts. The New Zealand Dollar has been somewhat on a different path than the Australian Dollar, as the overall net position has been bearish for the past 35 weeks, dating back to July 15th, 2025. Over that time, we have seen a few record-breaking bearish positions, with December 9th reaching the highest bearish level on record at -56,781 net contracts. Since that all-time bearish position, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position has shed almost 30,000 contracts, and this week leveled the position at -23,057 net contracts. In the Forex Markets, the New Zealand Dollar against the US Dollar has been in a multi-year downtrend, with prices in January hitting the 200-weekly moving average and fading lower and with the NZD trading currently at 0.5840 exchange levels.

Leading the Currencies market price performances was the Euro and British Pound

Seeing the highest weekly price changes this week was the Euro with a 1.35% increase over the last five days. The British Pound Sterling came in second with a 0.90% change, while the New Zealand Dollar saw a 0.89% gain on the week. Next up, the Mexican Peso was higher by 0.62%, followed by the Australian Dollar which rose by 0.56%. The Swiss Franc was also higher by 0.42% on the week. The Japanese Yen managed to see an uptick by 0.28%, while the Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged but edged up by 0.04% on the week.

The Brazilian Real dipped by -0.03%, while the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.79%. Bitcoin saw the biggest shortfall in the week with a -1.80% decline.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (90 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (85 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (32 percent), the EuroFX (37 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (39 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (28.3 percent)
EuroFX (36.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (68.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (11.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (39.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (84.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (53.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (90.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.3 percent)

Swiss Franc & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the Australian Dollar (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (16 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-54 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-22 percent), Mexican Peso (-16 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (-54.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-0.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-15.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-20.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (13.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (23.4 percent)
Bitcoin (16.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	25.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	39.2	5.3
– Net Position:	3,693	-4,957	1,264
– Gross Longs:	21,426	8,932	3,132
– Gross Shorts:	17,733	13,889	1,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	43.1	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-17.7	33.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -84,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,144 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	57.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	65.3	6.4
– Net Position:	21,132	-58,433	37,301
– Gross Longs:	212,886	435,130	85,722
– Gross Shorts:	191,754	493,563	48,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.1	54.6	-37.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	70.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	41.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-65,515	70,330	-4,815
– Gross Longs:	44,293	170,509	24,456
– Gross Shorts:	109,808	100,179	29,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	87.6	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	24.7	-30.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -67,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -26,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	50.2	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	28.8	12.8
– Net Position:	-67,780	70,002	-2,222
– Gross Longs:	106,819	163,975	39,497
– Gross Shorts:	174,599	93,973	41,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.0	68.6	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	14.0	-18.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	71.8	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	31.9	22.8
– Net Position:	-25,213	29,602	-4,389
– Gross Longs:	8,175	53,236	12,475
– Gross Shorts:	33,388	23,634	16,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	47.8	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.4	-15.3	-25.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	58.2	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	60.8	9.9
– Net Position:	886	-6,206	5,320
– Gross Longs:	66,507	144,314	29,911
– Gross Shorts:	65,621	150,520	24,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.8	15.4	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	0.7	-1.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 69,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	31.5	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	66.8	6.1
– Net Position:	69,061	-93,772	24,711
– Gross Longs:	136,074	83,769	40,933
– Gross Shorts:	67,013	177,541	16,222
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-21.6	5.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -23,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	77.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	39.7	6.1
– Net Position:	-23,057	23,860	-803
– Gross Longs:	10,998	49,317	3,090
– Gross Shorts:	34,055	25,457	3,893
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	61.0	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.8	-9.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	42.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	85.4	0.6
– Net Position:	68,460	-73,440	4,980
– Gross Longs:	90,997	72,821	5,994
– Gross Shorts:	22,537	146,261	1,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.3	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.2	-1.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 49,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.9	24.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	77.0	0.9
– Net Position:	49,317	-53,517	4,200
– Gross Longs:	71,255	25,006	5,124
– Gross Shorts:	21,938	78,523	924
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	5.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.1	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-13.1	0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.3	1.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.9	9.4	4.9
– Net Position:	1,773	-1,862	89
– Gross Longs:	16,741	379	1,246
– Gross Shorts:	14,968	2,241	1,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.3	15.2	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-19.9	6.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

22 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar, Steel & Soybean Oil lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied this week at the top in the extreme standings as the AUD speculator level resides at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 24 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 69,061 net contracts this week with a boost of 14,864 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 11 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 13,867 net contracts this week with an increase of 974 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in also tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a jump by 43 percentage points this week as the speculator position registered 120,097 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 18,346 contracts in speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week with the Soybeans speculator level at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled an increase of 35 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 221,066 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,202 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Palladium speculator level sits at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -9 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was -185 net contracts this week with a small change of -29 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 2-Year speculator level resides at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -14 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -1,482,667 net contracts this week with a drop of -144,431 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the Cocoa speculator level sits at a 3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -3 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -17,859 net contracts this week with a small gain by 2,991 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Sugar speculator level resides at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed almost no change this week while the overall speculator position was -207,755 net contracts this week with a small rise of 1,000 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The GBP speculator level is at a 12 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip of -22 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -65,515 net contracts this week with a strong gain of 18,682 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

Next, the Natural Gas speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Natural Gas speculator level is at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score had a change by -4 percentage points this week while the speculator position was -178,029 net contracts this week with a rise of 8,827 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Opinions

20 Mar

GBP/USD Appreciates BoE Pause: Now Focus Shifts to Geopolitics

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD rose during the previous session and is now correcting to 1.3403. The pound responded positively to the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with market attention focused on the regulator’s guidance on how the Iran conflict might influence future policy.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for a pause (9-0), a notable shift from February’s more divided 5-4 alignment. Some members have acknowledged the possibility of future rate hikes. The BoE has adopted a wait-and-see approach amid significant uncertainty.

While the rate pause was widely anticipated, market expectations have shifted markedly. Until recently, rate cuts were priced in, but rising oil prices amid the Iran conflict have increased inflationary risks and tilted sentiment towards a more hawkish policy stance.

The BoE estimates that inflation could accelerate to 3.5% in the coming quarters and highlighted the risk that inflation expectations could become entrenched in the economy. At the same time, signs of an economic slowdown persist, which could restrain price increases, though the primary risk now centres on inflation.

Additional labour market data revealed a slowdown in wage growth to its lowest rate since late 2020. Unemployment remains at 5.2%, with employment showing signs of stabilisation. Under normal circumstances, such data might support softer rhetoric; however, the current geopolitical environment and elevated energy prices have pushed inflation risks to the forefront.

Overall, the BoE’s stance remains cautious. While the rate pause continues, the scope for policy easing is diminishing, limiting the pound’s upside potential.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3354, currently extending up to 1.3467. A decline to 1.3333 is expected in the near term, with a new consolidation range likely to form following this correction. An upside breakout would pave the way for a continuation wave towards 1.3494, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement towards 1.3133. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3424. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3333. Should this level be breached, further downside towards 1.3125 is possible. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a growth wave towards 1.3494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

GBP/USD’s positive reaction to the BoE’s unanimous hold reflects market recognition that rising inflation risks – driven by geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices – are narrowing the path to policy easing. While the Bank’s cautious stance and the unanimous vote provide some support for sterling, the shift from rate-cut expectations to potential rate hikes has recalibrated market sentiment. With geopolitical developments now taking centre stage and technical indicators pointing to further consolidation, sterling’s near-term direction will likely hinge on whether inflation concerns continue to outweigh signs of domestic economic slowdown.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Mar

Targeting of energy facilities turned Iran war into worst‑case scenario for Gulf states

By Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Rice University

The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran took a dangerous turn on March 18, 2026, with tit-for-tat strikes on critical energy infrastructure that amount to the most serious regional escalation since the conflict began.

First, an Israeli drone strike targeted facilities at Iran’s Asaluyeh complex, damaging four plants that treat gas from the offshore South Pars field, which straddles the maritime boundary between Iran and Qatar.

Tehran vowed to retaliate by hitting five key energy targets in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Hours later, Iranian missiles caused “extensive damage” to Ras Laffan, the heart of Qatar’s energy sector. Qatar’s state-owned petroleum company said additional attacks on March 19 had targeted liquefied natural gas facilities.

Separate suspected Iranian aerial attacks also caused damage to oil refineries in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and led to the closure of gas facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

Much attention has been focused on the seemingly unanticipated consequences of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. But as a scholar of the Gulf, I believe that the targeting of energy facilities is close to a worst-case outcome for regional states. Export revenues from oil and, in Qatar’s case, natural gas have transformed the Gulf states into regional powers with global reach over the past three decades, and that is now at risk.

Energy becomes a battlefield

The offshore gas field that lies on both sides of the maritime boundary between Qatar and Iran is the world’s largest reserve of so-called nonassociated gas. This means that the gas is not connected to the production of crude oil and is unaffected by decisions to raise or lower output according to, for example, OPEC quotas.

The field, known as the North Field on the Qatari side and South Pars on the Iranian side, was discovered in 1971. Development of its massive resources began in earnest in the 1980s. Largely because of the field, Iran and Qatar have the second- and third-largest proven gas reserves in the world, respectively.

While Israel attacked gas facilities in southern Iran on the second day of the 12-day war in June 2025, oil and gas infrastructure was largely spared during that earlier conflict. The opening two weeks of the current fighting, however, have seen a significant loosening of the restraints on targeting critical infrastructure.

On March 8, Israel struck oil storage facilities in Tehran, starting large fires and blanketing the capital in plumes of smoke and toxic, so-called black rain. For their part, Iranian officials signaled that energy facilities were on the table as swarms of its drones targeted the Shaybah oil field in Saudi Arabia, the Shah gas field southwest of Abu Dhabi and oil facilities in Fujairah.

One of the seven emirates of the United Arab Emirates along with Abu Dhabi, Fujairah is strategically located on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, with direct access to the Indian Ocean. For this reason, it has grown into an important oil-loading and ship fuel-supplying hub and is the terminus for the Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline.

Opened in 2012, that pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day, covering more than half of the UAE’s oil exports. Its repeated targeting during the war signifies Iranian intent to disrupt one of the two pipelines that bypass Hormuz. Thus far, the other pipeline, the East-West pipeline from the eastern Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, has not been targeted.

But that could quickly change, as early on March 19 Saudi authorities reported that a drone had struck a refinery at Yanbu, while a ballistic missile that targeted the port had been intercepted.

Cascading risks of further energy attacks

On at least four occasions over the past decade, most recently in 2022, Houthi forces in Yemen – who are allied with Iran– struck targets around the East-West pipeline.

And in 2024 and 2025, in defiance of U.S. and Israeli policy in the region, the Houthis led a campaign against shipping in the Red Sea.

So far, the Houthis have refrained from joining the latest war, but they have threatened to do so. Any such actions would cause enormous additional disruption to oil markets.

However, the attack on Ras Laffan in Qatar and the wider threats to other energy infrastructure in the Gulf have the potential on their own to be catastrophic for a number of reasons.

Developed in the 1990s, the industrial city of Ras Laffan is the most critical cog in Qatar’s economic and energy landscape and the epicenter of the largest facility for the production and export of LNG in the world. Fourteen giant LNG “trains” process the gas from the North Field, which is then transported by vessels from the accompanying port to destinations worldwide.

Ras Laffan also houses gas-to-liquids facilities – these convert natural gas into liquid petroleum products – along with a refinery and water and power plants that produce desalinated water and generate electricity. Ras Laffan is quite simply the engine that has powered Qatar’s meteoric growth and rise as a global power broker.

Early reports suggest that the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant, Pearl GTL, which is operated by Shell, was damaged during the first attack on Ras Laffan, and that the second attack damaged 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity, with repairs projected to take three to five years. A three-phased expansion to the LNG facilities, which would add a further six LNG trains by 2027, is also likely to be delayed.

The burning Gulf state dilemma

What is clear is that Iranian officials view the Israeli — or American — targeting of facilities in their territorial waters in the South Pars field as sufficient to justify hitting facilities on the Qatari side. That’s even though Qatar forcefully condemned the Israeli strike on Asaluyeh as a dangerous escalation, for reasons that have become all too real.

There lies the nub of the dilemma for Qatar and the five other Gulf states facing the brunt of the backlash from a war they tried to avert through diplomacy.

On my visits to the region in fall 2025, it became clear that many officials in the Gulf viewed the ceasefire that ended the 12-day war as, at best, a temporary cessation of hostilities and feared that the next round of fighting would be far more damaging, for Iran and for the region.

This has now come to pass. An embattled government in Tehran that sees itself in an existential fight for survival has spread the cost of war as far and as wide as it can.

Officials statements from Gulf capitals that have consistently – and correctly – emphasized their direct noninvolvement in the U.S.-Israeli military campaign have fallen on deaf ears in Tehran.

An incident on March 2 that saw Qatar down two Iranian Soviet-era fighters was a defensive measure. The jets had entered Qatari airspace with the apparent intent to strike Al Udeid, the air base that houses the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command.

However, the scope of Iran’s attacks has gone far beyond military facilities used by U.S. forces and have hit the sectors – travel, tourism and sporting events – that put the region so firmly on the global map.

Nowhere is this more the case than the energy sector that has underwritten and made possible the transformation of the Gulf states over the past half-century, and whose health remains vital to the global economy and supply chains in oil, gas and many derivative products.

If that sector remains firmly in the crosshairs, there’s no telling how intense the regional and global consequences of the ongoing war in Iran may prove to be.

About the Author:

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

20 Mar

Hopes for de-escalation emerge in the Middle East. Central banks raise inflation expectations

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stock indices showed an impressive intraday reversal, recovering most of the earlier decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.44%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.27%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed down by 0.28%. Optimism was fueled by Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement about joint efforts with the United States to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, which immediately cooled oil prices to 94 dollars per barrel. Diplomatic initiatives by the Trump administration and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aimed at restoring supply chains eased fears of stagflation, bringing buyers back to the bond and stock markets.

European markets were swept by a wave of sell-offs. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 2.82%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 2.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 2.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) decreased by 2.35%. The catalyst for panic was reports of Iranian strikes on energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which triggered a vertical surge in gas and electricity prices. US retaliatory threats against Iranian gas fields only added fuel to the fire, forcing investors to price in a scenario of a full-scale energy paralysis in Europe. The geopolitical shock radically changed expectations for central banks: the ECB, the Bank of England, and the SNB not only kept rates unchanged but sharply raised their inflation predictions. A month ago, the market hoped for policy easing, but now traders are pricing in two rate hikes by the end of the year. This “hawkish” shift amid stagflation risks hit the banking sector hard (UniCredit, ING, Santander, and Intesa Sanpaolo fell by more than 4%).

The SNB, at its March meeting, kept the base rate at 0% for the third consecutive time. Despite extremely low current inflation, which stood at just 0.1% in February, the bank’s leadership sharply raised its future prognosis. The regulator expects the energy shock to accelerate price growth to 0.5% in 2026-2027, prompting the SNB to remain vigilant and ready to adjust its monetary tools. Markets paid particular attention to statements from SNB officials about their readiness for active interventions. The regulator is seriously concerned that excessive strengthening of the franc could choke Switzerland’s export-oriented economy.

On Friday, silver prices (XAG) showed a local rebound, rising above 74 dollars per ounce after yesterday’s drop to 65 dollars. Despite this increase, the asset is ending the week with a negative result for the third consecutive time. The main restraining factor remains the “hawkish” shift in interest rate expectations: investors increasingly prefer the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, whose yields are rising amid expectations of a prolonged fight against inflation. Although the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England kept rates unchanged this week, their rhetoric became extremely strict. The market has effectively capitulated to the reality of “higher-for-longer” rates: expectations for the first Fed rate cut have now officially shifted to 2027, while in Europe and the UK, traders are preparing for two hikes this year.

On Thursday, US WTI oil prices fell by 2% to 94 dollars per barrel, breaking a prolonged rally. The market cooled after a series of statements from Washington: President Donald Trump ruled out the possibility of sending ground troops to the Middle East. Additional skepticism among the “bulls” was introduced by intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard, who pointed to divergences in the strategic goals of the US and Israel. These comments were interpreted by traders as a signal of de-escalation and the White House’s reluctance to get involved in a full-scale regional war. Despite the current decline, oil remains 50% more expensive than before the conflict due to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and sharp production cuts by major OPEC+ exporters. The market is shifting from a phase of panic buying to a phase of assessing long-term consequences.

The US natural gas prices jumped more than 2.5% to 3.144 dollars per MMBtu, instantly recovering early-week losses amid an unprecedented attack on the Persian Gulf’s gas infrastructure. Iran’s missile strikes on Qatar’s industrial city of Ras Laffan, a critical hub of global LNG exports, became a direct realization of Tehran’s threats following Israel’s attack on the South Pars field. Chaos in the region was compounded by the shutdown of facilities in Abu Dhabi (Habshan) due to falling missile debris and reports of massive shelling of LNG terminals in Bahrain, threatening global energy security. Despite the alarming external backdrop, US domestic data from the EIA showed a moderate inventory increase of 35 billion cubic feet, which typically pressures prices at the end of the winter season. However, under current conditions, the oversupply in US storage is completely offset by fears of a global market deficit.

Asian markets fell yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 3.38%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.92%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 2.02%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 1.65% on Wednesday.

In March 2026, the PBOC maintained the status quo, leaving key rates unchanged for the tenth consecutive month: the one-year LPR remained at 3%, and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. This caution is driven not only by uncertainty due to the war in Iran but also by the revision of the government’s GDP growth target to a more realistic 4.5-5%. With lowered expectations for economic growth, Beijing sees no urgent need for additional monetary stimulus, preferring to maintain financial system stability. Paradoxically, the sharp rise in oil prices may benefit China in its fight against prolonged deflation by pushing the Producer Price Index upward.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,606.49 −18.21 (−0.27%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,021.43 −203.72 (−0.44%)

DAX (DE40) 22,839.56 −662.69 (−2.82%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,063.50 −241.79 (−2.35%)

USD Index 99.21 −0.88% (−0.88%)

News feed for: 2026.03.20

China PBoC Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2); – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Hong Kong Inflation Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2); – HK50 (MED)
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2). – CAD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

19 Mar

The Bank of Canada and the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed in the red. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.63%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.36%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.46%. The FOMC’s decision to keep interest rates in the 3.5-3.75% range was accompanied by a “hawkish” comment about serious pro‑inflationary risks caused by the war in Iran and the threat of new tariffs. The regulator’s concerns were confirmed by the aggressively high industrial inflation (PPI) figure published earlier the same day, which led most committee members to rule out the possibility of rate cuts this year. Investors reacted by pushing Treasury yields higher, which put pressure on all market sectors. The worst performance came from the financial sector and consumer staples: payment system giants Visa and Mastercard plunged 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively, while retailers Walmart and B&G lost more than 2.5% amid fears of declining consumer purchasing power due to high energy costs.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) fell to 1.37 per US dollar, reaching its lowest level in the past two months. In March, the BoC predictably kept its key rate unchanged, synchronizing its actions with the US Fed’s “hawkish pause.” The regulator emphasized that the war with Iran creates two‑sided risks: on one hand, it triggers an inflationary shock through fuel prices; on the other, it threatens to slow global economic growth. With the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed, the Canadian dollar remains in a unique “safe haven” position among commodity currencies, but its further recovery toward 1.35 will depend directly on whether the commodity factor outweighs Washington’s tight monetary policy in the coming weeks.

European markets showed a decline. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.96%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed slightly higher at 0.06%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.94%. The main pressure factor was another spike in natural gas prices caused by the escalation in the Persian Gulf. Given that the Fed has already confirmed its “hawkish” stance, tomorrow’s meetings of European regulators will be a moment of truth: will they acknowledge the inevitability of a prolonged period of high rates due to the energy crisis, or will they attempt to soften their rhetoric to support fading economic growth?

Silver prices (XAG) fell to $76.9 per ounce, pressured by the Fed’s updated expectations. The FOMC’s decision to keep rates unchanged and project only one rate cut this year sharply increased the alternative cost of holding the metal. Investors were particularly alarmed by the upward revision of the core PCE inflation prediction: the regulator made it clear that it is prepared to stick to a “higher for longer” policy to contain the consequences of the structural energy shock caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Iranian oil fields.

WTI crude oil showed a sharp intraday reversal, rising above $97.3 per barrel amid a critical escalation in the Persian Gulf. Reports of strikes on Iran’s gas giant South Pars and the death of Iran’s intelligence minister Esmail Khatib outweighed all attempts by Washington to stabilize the market, including the temporary suspension of the Jones Act and a 6.2‑million‑barrel increase in US commercial crude inventories. Even the Fed’s “hawkish” decision to keep rates in the 3.5-3.75% range only briefly cooled the bulls, as the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz created a structural deficit that cannot be quickly offset by strategic reserves or increased domestic refining.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.61%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.31%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) showed a corrective rise to 0.704 per US dollar, recovering part of its losses after yesterday’s decline. The fresh labor market report presented investors with a mixed but generally constructive picture: an explosive increase in employment by 48,900 (vs. the prognosis of 20,000) confirmed the economy’s strong resilience, but an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% slightly cooled the hawks’ enthusiasm. Nevertheless, the RBA still considers the labor market historically strong, leaving the door open for further policy tightening.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) exhibited volatility. Investors faced conflicting signals: extremely weak GDP data for the December quarter (growth of only 0.2% vs. the expected 0.4%) point to economic fragility, while inflationary risks due to the war in Iran are forcing the market to revise rate anticipation. Although annual GDP growth reached 1.3%, it fell short of the target 1.7%, confirming that domestic consumption in New Zealand remains subdued.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,624.70 −91.39 (−1.36%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,225.15 −768.11 (−1.63%)

DAX (DE40) 23,502.25 −228.67 (−0.96%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,305.29 −98.31 (−0.94%)

USD Index 100.26 +0.68% (+0.68%)

News feed for: 2026.03.19

Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Japan BoJ Policy Rate at 05:00 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (LOW)
UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+2); – SEK (HIGH)
Switzerland SNB Policy Rate at 10:30 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+2); – CHF (HIGH)
UK BoE Official Bank Rate at 14:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
UK BoE Press Conference at 14:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (HIGH)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2); – EUR (HIGH)
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – XNG (HIGH)
New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Mar

Oil prices are holding around 95 dollars per barrel. Bank Indonesia kept its key rate unchanged

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the US stock indices closed in the green zone, continuing to recover after falling to four‑month lows. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.10%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.25%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 0.47%. Investors remain optimistic, believing that the energy shock in the Persian Gulf will not turn into prolonged stagflation, despite ongoing strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The main driver of the day was the asset‑management sector: shares of KKR, Blackstone, and BlackRock jumped by 3-5% amid a reassessment of default risks in the technology sector, which restored confidence in major private lenders.

The upcoming FOMC meeting promises to become a true turning point for the market, as it takes place against the backdrop of an important leadership change at the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Leading investment banks expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged in the current range of 3.50-3.75%. However, all attention will be focused on the updated “dot plot” prognosis. Given that core inflation remains around 3% and uncertainty persists regarding the end of Jerome Powell’s term, the Fed will likely take a “hawkish pause,” signaling its readiness to keep rates high for longer than markets expected at the beginning of the year.

On Monday, European markets showed a confident rebound. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.71%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.49%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.93%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.83%.
On Tuesday, WTI oil prices rose by more than 2%, climbing to 96 dollars per barrel and partially recovering the previous day’s decline. The market reacted instantly to a new wave of escalation: reports of Israel eliminating high‑ranking Iranian security officials were accompanied by massive Tehran attacks on the energy infrastructure of US allies. The shutdown of the “Shah” gas giant in the UAE, strikes on Iraqi fields, and renewed blockades of terminals in Fujairah intensified fears that supply shortages will become chronic as the war enters its third and most destructive phase. Despite the start of commodity interventions from US strategic reserves, the overall supply picture remains critical: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively paralyzed, and oil prices have surged more than 40% since the beginning of the conflict.

Asian markets also rose mostly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.09%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 0.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.13%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.36%. The internal driver was strong macroeconomic data from China for the first two months of the year: industrial production grew by 6.3%, and retail sales by 2.8%, exceeding analysts’ prognoses and supporting the real estate and financial sectors.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) consolidated above 0.701 per US dollar, holding near multi‑year highs. A direct warning from Michele Bullock that current policy may still be insufficiently tight to suppress inflation forced markets to price in another rate hike in May and a high probability of an additional move in August. Against the backdrop of domestic monetary tightening, the Australian dollar also benefits from its role as a “commodity currency” during an energy crisis. Intensifying Iranian attacks on regional oil infrastructure and the refusal of US allies to support Donald Trump’s call for military convoy protection of ships are keeping commodity prices high, which traditionally benefits Australia’s economy.

At its March 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the key interest rate at 4.75%, fully in line with analysts’ expectations. The regulator found itself in a difficult position: on one hand, the economy is showing impressive growth (GDP in Q4 2025 accelerated to 5.39%), while on the other, inflation in February made a sharp jump to 4.76%, exceeding the upper boundary of the target range (2.5% ±1%). Despite current volatility and the global energy shock, the central bank maintains optimistic GDP growth projections for 2026 in the range of 4.9-5.7%. In the coming months, market attention will focus on whether Bank Indonesia will take additional steps to intervene in support of the rupiah if the psychological level of 17,000 per dollar is breached.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,716.09 +16.71 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,993.26 +46.85 (+0.10%)

DAX (DE40) 23,730.92 +166.91 (+0.71%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 23,730.92 +166.91 (+0.71%)

USD Index 99.57 -0.15% (-0.15%)

News feed for: 2026.03.18

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2); – JPY (LOW)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 15:45 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
Canada BoC Press Conference at 16:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (HIGH)
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2); – WTI (HIGH)
US FOMC Federal Funds Rate at 20:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US FOMC Statement at 20:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US FOMC Economic Projections at 20:00 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2); – USD, XAU (HIGH)
New Zealand GDP (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2). – NZD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

18 Mar

EUR/USD Awaits Fed Decision

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1532 on Wednesday, with markets adopting a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision.

The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Investor attention will focus on Jerome Powell’s comments, particularly on how oil market volatility may influence the policy outlook.

Rising energy prices are increasing inflation risks, while labour market signals remain mixed and offer little guidance on rates. Markets do not expect policy easing before September or October and are currently pricing in just one rate cut before year-end.

Geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Iran is intensifying attacks on the region’s energy infrastructure, while US allies have not supported Donald Trump’s call to ensure shipping security through the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1536. A move higher towards 1.1600 is expected as a near-term target, followed by a potential pullback to 1.1539. Technically, the MACD supports this scenario: its signal line remains below zero but is pointing firmly upwards, indicating building bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is developing the next upward leg towards 1.1596. After reaching this level, a decline to 1.1530 is expected, followed by a renewed advance towards 1.1650. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this structure, with its signal line above 50 and rising towards 80.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains in a holding pattern ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision, with markets awaiting Powell’s assessment of how oil market volatility may shape the policy path. With only one rate cut now priced in before year-end and Middle East tensions showing no signs of easing, the dollar’s near-term direction will depend on whether the Fed signals patience or heightened concern over inflation. Technical indicators point to scope for a short-term rebound, though the broader trend will be determined by the tone of Wednesday’s announcement.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Mar

GBP/USD Pauses Ahead of Bank of England Rate Decision

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD is holding near 1.3315 on Tuesday. The pound posted a modest gain the previous day but remains close to three-month lows amid ongoing uncertainty over the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global economy and inflation. Investors continue to favour the US dollar as a key safe-haven asset.

Since the onset of the conflict involving Iran, the dollar has been the primary beneficiary of safe-haven demand, outperforming gold, government bonds, and currencies such as the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, the pound has shown relative resilience compared with several other currencies: over the past three weeks, it has declined by approximately 1.7%, while the yen and euro have lost around 2.0% and 3.0%, respectively. This relative strength is partly due to the UK’s lower dependence on energy imports and its higher interest rate environment.

The key event of the week is the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday, where the rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.75%. Markets are currently pricing in just one rate cut before year-end, marking a notable shift from the two cuts anticipated prior to the conflict’s escalation.

Attention will also turn to UK labour market data, which points to a gradual cooling in employment and a slowdown in wage growth. Against this backdrop, with persistent inflationary pressure and rising energy prices, the pound may face further headwinds if macroeconomic conditions continue to deteriorate.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3283, currently extending to 1.3333. A decline to 1.3260 is expected in the near term, after which a new consolidation range is likely to form. An upside breakout would pave the way for a continuation wave towards 1.3360, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement towards 1.3133. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below the zero level and pointing sharply upwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3315. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3260. Should this level be breached, further downside towards 1.3125 is likely. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a growth wave towards 1.3350. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above the 80 level and pointing sharply downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains in a holding pattern ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England decision, with the pound showing relative resilience compared with other major currencies despite lingering near three-month lows. The dollar continues to dominate as the preferred safe-haven asset amid ongoing Middle East tensions, while shifting rate expectations – from two cuts to just one – reflect the complex inflation dynamics facing policymakers. With UK labour data showing signs of cooling and energy prices remaining elevated, the BoE’s tone on Thursday will be crucial in determining whether sterling can break out of its current consolidation range or extend its recent losses.

Disclaimer

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