InvestMacro

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was a big jump by the S&P500-Mini (73,363 contracts) with the VIX (1,351 contracts), the Russell-Mini (1,301 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (127 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were led this week by the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,651 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,280 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-749 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,158,452	17	10,185	66	-34,736	35	24,551	47
Nikkei 225	15,326	14	-2,128	52	695	40	1,433	46
Nasdaq-Mini	253,055	39	2,697	43	-4,366	39	1,669	74
DowJones-Mini	104,581	72	-35,960	0	39,649	99	-3,689	26
VIX	344,318	44	-21,594	95	26,058	3	-4,464	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	53,712	42	7,280	57	9,599	37	-16,879	53

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (95 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (66 percent) were the leaders for the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (52 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (0 percent) was at the lowest strength level and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (66.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (55.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (0.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (51.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.9 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (19 percent), the VIX (12 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-19 percent) coming in as the next lowest market.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (11.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (13.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (18.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-51.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-52.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (15.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-18.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	47.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	40.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-21,594	26,058	-4,464
– Gross Longs:	88,500	163,682	24,682
– Gross Shorts:	110,094	137,624	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.3	2.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-9.4	-18.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 73,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	72.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	74.0	10.4
– Net Position:	10,185	-34,736	24,551
– Gross Longs:	282,604	1,562,074	248,407
– Gross Shorts:	272,419	1,596,810	223,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	35.1	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-16.8	-1.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -35,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	65.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	27.1	13.9
– Net Position:	-35,960	39,649	-3,689
– Gross Longs:	25,159	68,034	10,893
– Gross Shorts:	61,119	28,385	14,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.1	47.8	-20.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,348 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	56.0	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	57.7	14.3
– Net Position:	2,697	-4,366	1,669
– Gross Longs:	69,019	141,589	37,947
– Gross Shorts:	66,322	145,955	36,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	39.1	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	6.6	3.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	79.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	71.2	4.6
– Net Position:	-44,171	44,537	-366
– Gross Longs:	72,617	413,481	23,620
– Gross Shorts:	116,788	368,944	23,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.5	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-8.1	-15.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	70.2	24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	65.6	14.7
– Net Position:	-2,128	695	1,433
– Gross Longs:	884	10,754	3,688
– Gross Shorts:	3,012	10,059	2,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.8	40.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	9.8	12.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	82.7	2.2
– Net Position:	-30,499	28,700	1,799
– Gross Longs:	25,471	352,594	10,247
– Gross Shorts:	55,970	323,894	8,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	75.4	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.7	-24.6	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

29 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (30,388 contracts) with Coffee (18,396 contracts), Corn (14,274 contracts), Soybeans (9,349 contracts), Wheat (9,296 contracts and Cocoa (5,528 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-21,450 contracts) with Cotton (-10,557 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,666 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,806 contracts) and Sugar (-3,264 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,628,044	21	300,765	41	-340,958	59	40,193	60
Gold	463,476	19	149,385	43	-165,873	60	16,488	22
Silver	123,980	12	24,332	53	-34,570	52	10,238	23
Copper	224,704	62	-20,760	13	21,401	89	-641	14
Palladium	22,459	100	-11,240	2	11,085	98	155	51
Platinum	84,610	93	-480	14	-4,832	83	5,312	39
Natural Gas	1,211,450	51	-70,272	47	51,221	57	19,051	25
Brent	127,094	8	-38,171	37	34,548	63	3,623	60
Heating Oil	322,791	45	31,988	81	-51,471	28	19,483	63
Soybeans	814,726	63	36,454	5	-24,483	88	-11,971	75
Corn	1,401,898	27	-48,280	11	83,034	90	-34,754	83
Coffee	199,646	18	18,208	46	-18,113	58	-95	11
Sugar	857,661	38	224,695	72	-271,696	26	47,001	64
Wheat	435,685	86	-59,947	24	56,978	74	2,969	80

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) led the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (61 percent), Coffee (46 percent) and Live Cattle (40 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (5 percent), Corn (11 percent) and Lean Hogs (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (71.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (73.1 percent)
Coffee (46.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (27.2 percent)
Soybeans (5.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (43.7 percent)
Live Cattle (40.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (12.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.4 percent)
Cotton (25.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (33.7 percent)
Cocoa (88.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (82.9 percent)
Wheat (24.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (17.6 percent)

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (36 percent) and Soybean Meal (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (6 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-22 percent), Soybeans (-19 percent) and Lean Hogs (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.5 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (35.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.7 percent)
Soybeans (-18.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-23.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-8.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-9.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-38.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.2 percent)
Cotton (-21.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.4 percent)
Cocoa (-10.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-15.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	46.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	40.7	12.4
– Net Position:	-48,280	83,034	-34,754
– Gross Longs:	283,037	653,322	139,285
– Gross Shorts:	331,317	570,288	174,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	89.6	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-5.5	-7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 224,695 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	38.2	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	69.9	5.3
– Net Position:	224,695	-271,696	47,001
– Gross Longs:	320,884	328,055	92,632
– Gross Shorts:	96,189	599,751	45,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	26.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	8.0	-8.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	42.7	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	51.8	5.2
– Net Position:	18,208	-18,113	-95
– Gross Longs:	55,113	85,251	10,332
– Gross Shorts:	36,905	103,364	10,427
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	57.9	11.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.7	-33.7	-10.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	54.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	57.3	8.5
– Net Position:	36,454	-24,483	-11,971
– Gross Longs:	135,138	442,219	57,078
– Gross Shorts:	98,684	466,702	69,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	88.4	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	15.2	11.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 31,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,805 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	48.4	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	55.6	6.1
– Net Position:	31,139	-33,462	2,323
– Gross Longs:	98,579	225,469	30,536
– Gross Shorts:	67,440	258,931	28,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	65.3	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	11.8	-29.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 106,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 30,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	38.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.1	63.7	6.1
– Net Position:	106,326	-126,450	20,124
– Gross Longs:	131,878	189,965	50,190
– Gross Shorts:	25,552	316,415	30,066
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	39.1	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.8	5.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 56,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	34.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.3	12.3
– Net Position:	56,857	-49,115	-7,742
– Gross Longs:	102,832	96,618	26,491
– Gross Shorts:	45,975	145,733	34,233
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	62.7	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.5	35.3	36.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	39.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	28.9	10.1
– Net Position:	-20,721	20,671	50
– Gross Longs:	54,414	76,966	19,814
– Gross Shorts:	75,135	56,295	19,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.6	88.8	83.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	14.2	18.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	49.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	60.1	4.3
– Net Position:	22,680	-26,215	3,535
– Gross Longs:	64,477	116,370	13,814
– Gross Shorts:	41,797	142,585	10,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	72.6	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	23.0	-32.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	26.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	52.3	3.9
– Net Position:	77,020	-79,960	2,940
– Gross Longs:	128,611	83,207	14,982
– Gross Shorts:	51,591	163,167	12,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	11.7	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	11.6	-9.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -59,947 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	34.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	21.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-59,947	56,978	2,969
– Gross Longs:	121,807	150,412	38,208
– Gross Shorts:	181,754	93,434	35,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	74.5	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	8.4	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

27 Oct

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 27.10.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate has dropped to 34,173 USD by Friday.

This is exactly as expected: the quotes have accounted for all the existing drivers, and new ones have not come. That is why the market stopped.

The market looks ready to develop the scenario with a correction to 29,500 USD. After BTC reaches this target, an increase to 31,200 USD and 32,000 USD might become possible.

The cryptocurrency market capitalisation remains at 1.26 trillion USD. The BTC share has dropped to 53.0%, while the ETH share stands at 17.2%.

BTC capitalisation exceeds Tesla parameters

Total market weight of BTC amounts to 677.23 billion USD this week. To compare, Tesla market capitalisation is 675 billion USD and that of Eli Lilly is 556 billion USD.

BTC search volume has skyrocketed

This week, the number of search queries “buy BTC” in the UK has topped up 826%. In the US, the query is formulated as “should I buy BTC now”. The number of such search queries has added 250%.

ChatGPT forecasts BTC prices by Halloween

Market participants would not stop trying to use AI opportunities for working on exchange platforms. Now they are focused on the forecasts of the BTC price on Halloween made by the ChatGPT bot. AI insists that the most popular coins over this period will be BTC, ETH, BNB, and SOL.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

27 Oct

Japan is setting the stage for a monetary policy review. Falling tech companies are dragging the broad market

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40) 14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index 106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.10.27:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Oct

Week Ahead: US dollar set for scary rollercoaster ride?

By ForexTime

High-risk events could “trick or treat” investors next week
Watch out for central bank decisions, key data & earnings
US dollar to be influenced by Fed decision & NFP
USDInd trapped within a range on daily chart
Key levels of interest at 105.50 and 107.20

An exceptional list of high-risk events could “trick or treat” investors in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) to top-tier data from major economies including the latest US employment report. This will be complemented by a barrage of corporate earnings from the largest economies in the world.

Here are the major economic data releases and events on the week of Halloween:

Monday, October 30th

AUD: Australia retail sales
EUR: Eurozone confidence, Germany CPI and GDP

Tuesday, October 31st

Halloween
CNH: China PMI’s
EUR: Eurozone CPI, GDP
JPY: BoJ rate decisions, unemployment, retail sales
USD: Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, November 1st

CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
NZD: New Zealand unemployment
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
USD: FOMC rate decision, ISM Manufacturing

Thursday, November 2nd

AUD: Australia trade balance
EUR: Eurozone/Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
GBP: BoE rate decision
USD: US factory orders, initial jobless claims
NQ100_m: Apple earnings

Friday, November 3rd

CNH: China Caixin services PMI
EUR: Eurozone unemployment
GBP: BoE’s Jonathan Haskel, BoE’ Huw Pill speech
CAD: Canada unemployment
USD: US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

The scheduled data releases and events may create fresh opportunities across the board. Our focus falls on the USD Index which is set to be influenced by the Fed decision and US employment report.

The USD Index tracks how the dollar is performing against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

It is worth noting that the dollar has appreciated against almost every single G10 currency month-to-date excluding the Swiss Franc.

Dollar bulls found a friend in rising Treasury yields as sticky US inflation supported expectations around rates remaining “higher for longer”.

The USD Index could kick off November with a bang! Here are some things to watch out for:

Federal Reserve rate decision

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its next meeting on November 1st, a second consecutive pause.

This is in line with recent dovish comments from Fed officials including Jerome Powell and mixed US economic data. Investors will be paying close attention to Powell’s press conference for any fresh clues on future rate moves.

The USDInd could find itself under fresh selling pressure if the Fed strikes a dovish tone and signals that no more hikes are on the cards for the rest of 2023.
Should the central bank sound hawkish and leave the doors open for a December move, this may give the USDInd a boost.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 1 in 5 chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike by the end of 2023.

US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Markets expect the US economy to have created 168,000 jobs in October, essentially half of the whopping 336,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 3.8%.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs report may leave the doors open to a December rate hike, pushing the USDInd higher as a result.
However, evidence of a cooling US jobs market may support the argument that the Fed is done with hikes this year – dragging the USDInd lower.

Technical forces: breakout?

The USDInd has been trapped within a range since late September with support at 105.50 and resistance at 107.20. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. Although technical forces are in favour of bulls, the fundamentals could throw the USDInd on a scary rollercoaster ride.

A solid breakout and daily close above 107.20 could push prices to levels not seen since November 2022 at 107.80.
Should the USDInd slip back below the 105.50 support, this may open the doors towards 104.60.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

26 Oct

Extreme weather could burn many investment portfolios by mid-century

By Noël Amenc, EDHEC Business School; Abhishek Gupta, EDHEC Business School; Bertrand Jayles, EDHEC Business School; Darwin Marcelo, EDHEC Business School; Frédéric Blanc-Brude, EDHEC Business School; Leonard Lum, EDHEC Business School; Nishtha Manocha, EDHEC Business School, and Qinyu Goh, EDHEC Business School

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity today, with potentially severe implications for infrastructure assets. Infrastructure investments such as roads, bridges, ports, airports, and power plants have long lifetimes, typically spanning several decades, and are designed to operate under specific climatic conditions. However, climate change is causing more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and storms, which can damage or disrupt infrastructure assets. These physical risks can lead to direct losses, increased maintenance costs, and lower asset values.

At the same time, climate change induces changes in policy, technology, and consumer preferences that can impact the value of infrastructure assets. This is known as transition risks. For example, new regulations and carbon-pricing schemes could make carbon-intensive infrastructure assets less attractive or even “stranded”, leading to significant financial losses . Additionally, changes in consumer behaviour, such as a shift toward electric vehicles or renewable energy sources, could render certain infrastructure assets obsolete.

50% potential loss of value

If the energy transition has a cost for private investors (transition risks), so does climate change (physical risks). Extreme weather events, which experts predict will increase over the next few years, thus greatly increase the risk of losing value in portfolios.

In an August 2023 study, “It’s getting physical”, EDHEC Infrastructure and Private Assets Research Institute shows that some investors could see the value of their portfolio fall by more than 50% before 2050. The average investor’s portfolio, which generally holds around 10 assets, could drop by a quarter.

The reason is that over the past two decades, institutional investors – such as insurance companies, mutual and pension funds – have been allocating more and more capital to private infrastructure companies, which operate motorway toll roads, airports, power stations, bridges, pipelines, wind and photovoltaic farms, and so on. This represents a total value of 4.1 trillion dollars in the 25 most active markets. These markets include sectors like renewable energy projects, sustainable infrastructure development, clean technology ventures, electric vehicle manufacturing, carbon offset trading, and green real estate investment, among others. These infrastructures are particularly exposed to climate risks.

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, public spending on physical infrastructure has persistently failed to keep up with economic growth; the United States spends only 2.3% of its GDP on infrastructure, compared to 5% for European countries and 8% for China. Still, private-investor exposure appears to be considerable.

27% loss of value on average

To measure the likely losses of infrastructure investors, we randomly constructed thousands of portfolios. To do this, we included hundreds of assets belonging to infrastructure investments across eight industrial superclasses, including transport (air, rail and road), power generation (gas- and coal-fired, nuclear, etc.), renewable energy (wind, solar, hydroelectric, etc.), network utilities (electricity, gas or water distribution), water resources (oil, gas or water pipelines, gas or liquid storage), etc. For all these assets, it is possible to obtain information on the associated climate risks in EDHEC’s InfraMetrics database.

Overall, we observed a high concentration of risk. Most infrastructure investors generally have few assets in their portfolios (between 5 and 20 on average). Their portfolios are poorly diversified, with a relatively limited number of assets held directly by each investor.

Furthermore, portfolios containing infrastructure assets are often concentrated in a single sector – for example, wind farms. In practical terms, an investor who started building a portfolio in 2018 and plans to hold the assets for another 30 years is exposed to losses solely due to physical risks ranging from -54% to -10%, depending on the number of assets held.

In addition, the loss in value of assets exposed to climate change is -27% on average [by 2050]. In a scenario where temperatures rise faster than expected, they could reach 54% for the most-concentrated portfolios. For instance, the “Hot House World” scenario predicts a rise in temperatures of about 3.2ºC above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Some sectors are also more exposed to climate risks than others. In the transport sector, for example, the loss in net asset value would be four times greater than in the renewable energies sector. Investors in developed countries – in particular the United States, Europe and Australia and others – are the most exposed to losses in value worldwide. Indeed, the more valuable assets are concentrated in a given location, the greater the risk of value destruction.

More inaction, even greater risk

This study shows the scale of the potential losses that investors will have to face. And that’s before the 2050 deadline, as long as climate change predictions remain unchanged. Without action from governments and other stakeholders, climate risks could have a major impact on the overall value of investments, and on the economy as a whole.

However, there is still a glimmer of hope: if the stakeholders manage to organise an effective transition to a low-carbon economy, the losses mentioned in the article could be halved for all investors. All that remains – and this is undoubtedly the most difficult part – is to take action.

About the Authors:

Noël Amenc, Professeur de finance, EDHEC Business School; Abhishek Gupta, Associate Director at the EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business School; Bertrand Jayles, Senior Sustainability Data Scientist, EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School; Darwin Marcelo, Project Director at the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School; Frédéric Blanc-Brude, Directeur de l’EDHEC Infrastructure Institute, EDHEC Business School; Leonard Lum, Data analyst, EDHECinfra, EDHEC Business School; Nishtha Manocha, EDHECinfra Senior Research Engineer, EDHEC Business School, and Qinyu Goh, MSc Urban Science, Sustainability Data Scientist at the EDHEC Infrastructure & Private Assets Research Institute, EDHEC Business School

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Oct

RoboMarkets Integrates Acuity Trading’s Advanced AI Technologies to Enhance Client Offerings

October 26, 2023

Limassol, Cyprus

RoboMarkets, a European brokerage company, has announced a strategic partnership with Acuity Trading, renowned for its advanced AI-driven trading technologies. This alliance emphasises RoboMarkets’ commitment to offering its retail and professional clients refined, alternative perspectives on the financial market, ensuring they maintain a competitive edge in their trading endeavours.

In its effort to empower its traders with augmented trading experiences, RoboMarkets is poised to integrate Acuity’s innovative AI-driven tools, including the Economic Calendar, AnalysisIQ, and AssetIQ. This collaboration enriches the decision-making capabilities of RoboMarkets’ traders and underscores the Company’s commitment to offering a comprehensive perspective on the financial market.

RoboMarkets’ traders will gain access to advanced tools including:

Acuity’s AI-Powered Economic Calendar: this tool offers real-time insights. It equips traders to navigate market volatilities and uncertainties with AI-enhanced filtering and vivid indicators, transforming these challenges into actionable trading opportunities.
Acuity’s AnalysisIQ: this technology, originating from Signal Centre and acquired by Acuity in 2021, operates under FCA regulation. It provides traders with professional, dependable market research and trade signals, bolstering their trading strategies and decision-making processes.
AssetIQ: this robust research tool provides traders with a comprehensive, unified view of global market assets, ensuring that the latest and most relevant data is always available to assist them in making informed trading decisions.

RoboMarkets has consistently aimed to continually enhance its offerings and provide clients with innovative tools based on the latest technological breakthroughs. The partnership with Acuity Trading underscores RoboMarkets’ commitment to continuously refining its offerings with cutting-edge tools.

As a CySEC-regulated entity, RoboMarkets remains steadfast in prioritising the evolving needs of its traders. With a diverse range of over 3,000 instruments, including US Stocks and ETFs, available for trading and investment, the Company reinforces its dedication to maintaining a leading position in the trading industry by integrating with Acuity Trading’s innovative tools.

About RoboMarkets

RoboMarkets is a financial brokerage company operating under CySEC license No. 191/13. RoboMarkets offers investment services in many European countries and provides traders working in financial markets with access to its proprietary platforms. Visit www.robomarkets.com to find out more about the Company’s products.

About Acuity Trading

Acuity Trading revolutionised the online trading experience for millions of investors with the introduction of visual news and sentiment tools in 2013. Today, Acuity continues to lead the fintech market with alpha generating alternative data and highly engaging trading tools using the latest in AI research and technology. Acuity’s team of academics, scientists, news, and market professionals are dedicated to delivering highly effective data products that bring value to investors of all levels and experience. Flexible delivery options include APIs, MT4/5, plug and play widgets and third-party automation services.

“Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69.88% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.”

Financial News Stock Market News

26 Oct

Blowout US GDP growth data but it is what’s coming next that matters…

By George Prior

The strong third-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth for the US economy should not be the focus for investors, warns the CEO of deVere Group.

The warning from Nigel Green, chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, comes as GDP, or the sum of all goods and services produced in the US economy, is revealed to be a 4.9% annualized gain for the third quarter.

“This is the strongest output since the fourth quarter of 2021. It appears that consumers are still happy to spend despite the higher interest rates.

“While its important data that shows the resilience of the world’s largest economy, it should not be the focus of investors,” he says.

“This data shows what has already happened. Investors need to focus on what will happen, if they’re serious about preserving their capital and growing their wealth, because the US economy faces serious headwinds in the months ahead.”

The deVere CEO cites three major reasons that indicate the economic trajectory might not be as rosy in the near future.

“First, the bond market is sending red-flag signals that it believes a recession is looming. For more than a year now, we’ve seen an inverted yield curve, which is when the yield on the two-year Treasury has overtaken that of the 10-year note.

“From the 1960s to today, every time the long-term rate was lower than a short-term rate, a recession followed. It’s happened for the last eight recessions – and it’s never been wrong.”

He continues: “Second, the new US Speaker, Mike Johnson, a close ally of Donald Trump, will be less inclined to make deals than Kevin McCarthy.

“Therefore, he’s more likely to affect a partial government shutdown in mid-November in order to try and seize a political advantage. It is also more likely that under this scenario, a shutdown would be extended – unlike the previous, more symbolic, ones.

“A government shutdown creates uncertainty about the world’s largest economy, budgetary decisions, and the potential for disruptions in federal services. It erodes investor confidence, both domestically and internationally, meaning investors pull back from the US financial markets, leading to a decrease in asset prices and potential capital flight.

“We expect that should a shutdown occur, it will prompt Moody’s to cut the US credit rating below AAA. This would be the third rating agency to downgrade the US.”

Nigel Green adds: “And third, the Israel-Hamas war will weigh on sentiment as individuals and businesses become more risk averse about spending and investing, which could lead to a recession.

“Also, conflicts in the Middle East tend to lead to spikes in oil prices which can trigger significant uncertainty in global markets.”

Against this backdrop, investors are being urged not to feel “too fuzzy” about the latest Gross Domestic Product growth data for the US economy.

“Investors shouldn’t be complacent about this strong data. They shouldn’t focus on the backward-looking; they should be thinking about what’s next, particularly the headwinds on the horizon.

“We would urge them to review their portfolios to mitigate risks and seize the opportunities that will come from a shifting investment environment,” concludes Nigel Green.

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

26 Oct

Murrey Math Lines 26.10.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF quotes are below the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is approaching the resistance line. In this case, a downward breakout of the 3/8 (0.8977) level is expected, followed by a decline to the support at 1/8 (0.8850). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above 4/8 (0.9033), which could lead to a trend reversal and growth to the resistance at 5/8 (0.9094).

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline could be a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold quotes and the RSI are nearing their overbought areas on H4. In this situation, a test of 8/8 (2000.00) is expected, followed by a rebound from it and a decline to the support at 6/8 (1937.50). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above 8/8 (2000.00). In this case, the price might reach the resistance at +1/8 (2031.25).

On M15, a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a price decline.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Oct

Euro shaky ahead of ECB meeting

By ForexTime

ECB expected to pause on rate hikes
Inflationary pressures have eased in Europe
However, economic outlook paints gloomy picture
Hawkish messaging may leave doors open to December hike
EURUSD back within range, potential breakout on horizon.

As far as markets are concerned, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave rates unchanged in October for the first time in over a year, amid signs of cooling inflation. Over the past few months, price pressures have eased in Europe, with the headline rate falling to 4.3% in September, which was the lowest since October 2021.

ECB officials signalled at their previous September meeting that rates were high enough to bring inflation back towards the 2% target. However, concerns are rising about the worsening economic outlook, along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Indeed, the string of recent disappointing data paints a gloomy picture with recession fears rife as high rates impact households and businesses.

Investors will pay close attention to any fresh clues the ECB has to offer on monetary policy for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Should the ECB communicate that rates will remain higher for longer, this could leave the door open for one final hike in December. As of writing, traders are pricing in only around a 10% probability of an ECB rate hike by December with the odds of a rate cut by April roughly 50%.

Looking at the technical picture, EURUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts.

Prices are back within a wide range with support at 1.0450 and resistance at 1.0630. The euro could find itself under fresh pressure if the ECB strikes a cautious tone and hints that no more hikes are expected down the road. This may drag the EURUSD back towards the 1.0450 support level as a result.

Should the central bank strike a hawkish note, this could push EURUSD back towards 1.0630 and beyond as bets increase on a December rate move.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & the VIX

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

Coffee & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

BTC capitalisation exceeds Tesla parameters

BTC search volume has skyrocketed

ChatGPT forecasts BTC prices by Halloween

Here are the major economic data releases and events on the week of Halloween:

The scheduled data releases and events may create fresh opportunities across the board. Our focus falls on the USD Index which is set to be influenced by the Fed decision and US employment report.

The USD Index could kick off November with a bang! Here are some things to watch out for:

Federal Reserve rate decision

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 1 in 5 chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike by the end of 2023.

US October nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Technical forces: breakout?

50% potential loss of value

27% loss of value on average

More inaction, even greater risk

Looking at the technical picture, EURUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts.