Crude oil bears dominate the scene

By ForexTime 

  • Crude oil under pressure on D1 timeframe
  • H4 timeframe confirms that bears are in control
  • Keep eye on Parabolic SAR and MACD
  • Three potential bearish targets identified on H4 chart
  • If the 83.94 level broken, H4 bearish scenario invalidated

Oil prices remain dominated by bears on the daily timeframe as the global commodity creates a lower top followed by a lower bottom.

This represents a downtrend that could send prices toward the weekly support level of 80.45. However, bulls have the potential to jump back into the scene by starting a correction wave with their goal none other than the weekly resistance level at 84.47.

The H4 chart confirms that the bears are in charge with a downtrend in progress. Bulls started a correction wave in the downtrend with both the Parabolic SAR indicator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) oscillator sanctioning this direction.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level near the last lower bottom at 81.46 and dragging it close to the top of a large bearish candle at 83.94, three possible targets can be established:

  • The first possible target is at 80.71 (Target 1), just before a weekly support level. This target will help with risk management.

  • The second price target is likely at 78.72 (Target 2) if the bears can break through the weekly support level.

  • The third and last price target is feasible at 76.99 (Target 3).

If the price at 83.94 is broken, this scenario is no longer relevant.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

We expect a market rally for the end of 2023: deVere CEO

By George Prior

Global financial markets are likely to rally in November and December, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The bullish prediction from deVere Group’s Nigel Green comes despite stock market corrections and weak investor sentiment.

He says: “History shows that November is the second-best month of the year for markets, behind April.

“This November could be even more positive as some markets are currently in correction territory – falling by more than 10% – and so a swing to the upside will be more pronounced.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Over 72 years there have been 34 market declines. Only 12 of these have turned into bear markets. When does a recovery typically happen? 96 days after the start of the correction. We’re now around day 90.

“If all this data holds up, we’re about to see a year-end rally, which investors would not want to miss out on.”

In addition, Nigel Green says that he expects the Federal Reserve will leave US interest rates unchanged this week.

“Investors will be watching this carefully, but the central bank of the world’s largest economy is almost certainly going to hold rates steady on Wednesday, which will be bullish for stock markets.”

Should stock markets emerge from correction territory, investors should consider a few prudent strategies.

First and foremost, maintaining a diversified portfolio remains crucial, as it helps spread risk and minimise exposure to sector-specific fluctuations. Reassess your investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon to ensure your portfolio aligns with your financial objectives.

Sectors that could appeal to investors as markets recover include tech and renewable energy. These sectors have demonstrated resilience and potential for growth even during market downturns.

Additionally, consider allocating funds to undervalued industries that may benefit from economic rebounds, such as travel and leisure, as pent-up consumer demand surges.

Lastly, monitoring the broader economic and geopolitical landscape is vital for informed decision-making, as global events can significantly impact market dynamics. Diversification, research, and a strategic outlook are key as markets exit correction territory.

The deVere CEO concludes: “We expect a rally for the end of 2023. You should consider revising your investment mix to seize the potential opportunities in what we think will be a new phase.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Brent Crude Holds Ground Around $90 Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Future Expiries

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude is maintaining a steady position, trading close to $89.50 as the market endeavors to find a balance.

Middle Eastern tensions remain the central focus for traders, as the on-ground operations in the region have introduced multiple uncertainties that can sway prices.

Adding to the mix of factors influencing Brent crude this week is the expiration of December Brent futures. This expiration could lead to short-term volatility and impact prices accordingly.

Recent data from Baker Hughes indicates that the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is on the rise. This week saw an increase of two units, bringing the total to 504 rigs. This growth marks the third week in a row of expansion.

Technical Analysis: Brent Crude

Brent has witnessed a corrective move to the $86.50 mark and is currently crafting an upward trajectory targeting $89.50. Should prices successfully surpass this resistance, we might witness a rally towards $93.20, and potentially even further to the $95.00 mark. The MACD on this timeframe solidifies this bullish sentiment. With its signal positioned below the zero line, it’s on an upward trajectory, hinting at possible future highs.

On the hourly frame, Brent has wrapped up a bullish wave reaching $89.36, succeeded by a minor pullback to $87.90 earlier today. The stage appears set for a subsequent bullish move, aiming for the $89.50 resistance. Breaking above this level could potentially unlock the door to $92.50. The Stochastic oscillator on this timeframe amplifies this bullish stance. Its signal, currently below the 20 mark, is pointed sharply upwards, suggesting a possible rally to the 80 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Nasdaq correction: Is tech sell-off an opportunity?

By George Prior 

Shrewd investors will use the tech sell-off as a buying opportunity as Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell into correction territory, affirms the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

The analysis from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the Nasdaq, alongside the other main US and global indexes, comes under pressure from disappointing third-quarter results from Big Tech companies, high Treasury yields, higher-for-longer interest rates, and recession fears.

A correction happens when an index falls more than 10%, but less than 20%, from its most recent closing high.

He notes: “This dramatic sell-off is largely focused on the Nasdaq and tech stocks, which investors feel would be hit hardest by spiking interest rates.

“The Nasdaq, currently down more than 12% from its 2023 high, meaning it’s firmly in correction territory, has also been impacted by disappointing earnings recently out from the Big Tech titans.”

Last week, Meta slid 3.7% on Thursday after the Facebook parent company reported that advertising revenue had been weak.

Google-parent Alphabet also slid, falling by 9.5%, after the company fell short in its cloud business. It’s the largest decline for the stock since March 2020. Shares fell another 2.7% on Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, Apple fell by 2.5%. Amazon, despite reporting strong results, was down 1.5%.

The tech sell-off is spooking some, while some “shrewd investors will be actively using this as an important buying opportunity” for three main reasons.

“First, the AI Race is intensifying, as firms are racing to lead in the development, deployment, and utilisation of artificial intelligence technologies.

“It is going to reshape whole industries, create new ones, and fuel innovation beyond what we can currently imagine.

“All this AI needs enormous amounts of computing power, which is a path that leads companies directly to the likes of Microsoft, Google and Amazon,” says Nigel Green.

“Second, tech companies are known for their ability to pivot and adapt to changing market conditions. They’re well-equipped to weather the storm of rising interest rates and adjust their strategies to maintain profitability and relevance.

“Third, the market fears are presenting opportunities to purchase high-quality tech companies at a lower cost, allowing investors to potentially benefit from capital appreciation when the market rebounds.”

As ever, a well-balanced investment portfolio should be diversified across various asset classes, including tech stocks. Diversification helps spread risk and can provide a buffer against the impact of sell-offs in specific sectors.

The deVere CEO concludes: “Like those which have gone before it, this tech sell-off will provide an opportunity for investors to selectively acquire tech stocks with solid fundamentals and growth potential.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Japan is setting the stage for a monetary policy review. Falling tech companies are dragging the broad market

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday’s 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company’s cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

Stocks also declined yesterday due to tensions in the Middle East following a report that Israel conducted a limited tank invasion of the Gaza Strip before withdrawing troops. Markets expect an all-out ground attack by Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the war to include Hezbollah.

The US economy grew by 4.9% in the third quarter, with households and construction contributing significantly to growth. However, the unfavorable factors facing the economy and the household sector in particular are intensifying, so economists expect growth to slow to 1.5% in the last three months of the year. Also strong is the 4.7% rise in US durable goods orders for September, which is much stronger than expectations of rising by 1.9%. US weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 210,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market compared to expectations for a rise to 207,000.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.38% on Thursday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.81%.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key rates unchanged on Thursday, in line with market expectations: the deposit rate at 4.00% and the main refinancing rate at 4.50%. Markets had expected the ECB to suspend its rate hike regime on Thursday, given the weakness in the eurozone economy and the recent rise in European bond yields. There is only a 5% chance of an ECB rate hike at the December meeting, but markets are forecasting an ECB rate cut in 2024.

Natural gas prices rose on Thursday amid a bullish EIA report and forecasts of colder-than-normal weather for next week. Natural gas prices received support from global supply concerns after Chevron shut down a natural gas field in Israel over security concerns related to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. As a result of the supply cut, Egypt said it was reviewing plans to export LNG to Europe.

Asian markets were predominantly falling yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.14%, FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Thursday negative by 0.61%. Uncertainty over the war between Israel and Hamas and rising yields led Asian indices lower this week, while anticipation of a series of central bank meetings next week also made investors largely risk-averse.

With the Bank of Japan conducting another FX intervention yesterday, markets expect the BoJ to consider a change in yield curve management policy next week with an adjustment to the outlook. The latest data showed that Tokyo’s inflation rose more than expected in October, indicating that inflation is picking up again in the country and could lead to a more hawkish bias from the BoJ at its meeting next Tuesday.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,137.23 −49.54 (−1.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,784.30 −251.63 (−0.76%)

DAX (DE40)  14,731.05 −161.13 (−1.08%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,354.57 −59.77 (−0.81%)

USD Index  106.65 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for 2023.10.27:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Producer Price Index at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Trade of the Week: Can SPX500_m recover from technical correction?

By ForexTime

  • S&P 500 is now 10% below its end-July peak; set for third straight monthly drop
  • Relief for equity bulls may depend on 4 key events in first 3 days of November
  • Events watchlist: US Treasury announcement, FOMC decision, Apple earnings, US jobs report
  • Current technical pullback may be short-lived; bulls need fundamental boost
  • S&P 500 may see third consecutive weekly move of over 2%

 

The S&P 500 has entered a technical correction, which is when an asset’s price falls by over 10% from a recent peak.

Note that the SPX500_m posted a closing price on Friday (October 27th) that was 10.3% lower than its closing price registered on July 31st (its year-to-date high).

Furthermore, the SPX500_m is set to post a third straight month of declines – something not seen since Q1 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.

Here’s how this blue-chip stock index has fared recently:

  • August: down 1.77%
  • September: down 4.87%
  • October so far (as of market’s close on Friday, October 27th): down 4%

 

Amidst such a gloomy backdrop, hopes for an SPX500_m rebound this week are set to rest on these 4 major events:

 

1) Wednesday, November 1st: US Treasury quarterly refunding announcement

This is when the US government reveals how much new debt it has to sell to markets to keeping funding its budget.

To underscores the sheer importance of this upcoming announcement for global markets, note how the prior quarterly refunding announcement on August 2nd sparked a rout in US bond markets, setting 10-year US Treasury yields on the way to hitting 5% for the first time since 2007!

NOTE: Yields rise with bond prices fall.

At the same time, the S&P 500 has been on a steady decline since that last announcement in early August.

This is because, higher yields on US Treasuries (deemed to be the “safest” investment in the world) makes riskier assets, such as stocks, less appealing.

For this week’s announcement, markets expect US$114 billion worth of securities to be outlined for sale by the US Treasury.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • A higher-than-expected figure (US Treasury intends to sell more bonds than markets expect) could translate into another leg up for US Treasury yields, and perhaps extend the drop seen in the SPX500_m.
  • A lower-than-$114 billion number revealed by the US Treasury, or efforts to subdue its refunding costs, may offer some relief for SPX500_m.

 

 

2) Wednesday, November 1st: FOMC rate decision

To be clear, the Fed is roundly expected to leave its benchmark rates unchanged this week.

Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to reiterate his “higher for longer” message, which is something that markets are fully aware of.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • If Chair Powell can strike a more hawkish tone, perhaps going into more detail as to just how much “longer” the Fed will keep its benchmark rates elevated, that could spark more declines for the SPX500_m.
  • However, if Chair Powell were to close the door on any further rate hikes, or perhaps even concede that the first Fed rate cut may actually arrive sooner than expected (markets currently predict it’ll happen in June 2024), that could help the SPX500_m recover.

 

 

3) Thursday, November 2nd (after US markets close): Apple earnings

Apple has a market cap of US$2.63 trillion, making it the world’s most valuable company.

Apple alone accounts for about 7% of the total S&P 500, making it the largest stock on this benchmark index that is tracked by our SPX500_m.

Given Apple’s sheer size, how markets react to its earnings would have a large influence over how the S&P 500 performs.

Keep in mind that Apple is facing its longest sales slump in over 20 years, and is now facing slowing sales of its iPhone 15 in China.

NOTE: China accounts for about 20% of Apple’s total revenues.

Hence, both its backward-looking Q4FY23 numbers, as well as forward-looking statements especially around Chinese sales, could dictate how Apple’s share prices react.

Also, Apple’s share price is expected to move by 3.77%, either upwards or downwards, on Friday, November 3rd – the day after the company unveils its financial results for the July-September period (the fourth quarter of the company’s 2023 fiscal year).
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • Better-than-expected earnings out of Apple, or if the company sounds optimistic about a turnaround in China, could help pull the SPX500_m out of a technical correction.
  • Disappointing Apple earnings and/or more concerns about a prolonged sales slump, could push the SPX500_m deeper into a technical correction.

 

 

4) Friday, November 3rd: US jobs report

As is the case on the first Friday of most months, markets are eagerly anticipating the tier-one US nonfarm payrolls report.

Here are the current forecasts for some of October’s key figures:

  • Headline NFP number: 190,000 new jobs added to the US labour market in October
    (this would be its lowest tally since June 2023’s 105,000 figure)
  • Unemployment rate: 3.8%
    (this would match September’s unemployment rate)
  • Average hourly earnings: 4% year-on-year (October 2023 vs. October 2022)
    (this would be slightly lower than September’s 4.2% year-on-year number)
  • Average hourly earnings: 0.3% month-on-month (October 2023 vs. September 2023)
    (this would be slightly faster than September’s 0.2% month-on-month number)

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • Evidence of a stronger-than-expected US jobs report may indeed allow the Fed to maintain its benchmark rates “higher for longer”, or perhaps even pave the way for one more 25-basis point hike in this cycle.

    Such expectations could heap more downward pressure on the SPX500_m.

  • Cracks showing in the US labour market, suggesting that the world’s largest economy is bearing the brunt of all those Fed rate hikes since last year, may seal the door shut on a further Fed rate hike, and potentially pave the way for a sooner-than-expected Fed rate cut,

    Such expectations may spark joy among SPX500_m bulls (those hoping prices will go up).

 

 

From a technical perspective …

At the time of writing, the SPX500_m is seeing a technical rebound, as its 14-day relative strength index attempts to recover from the 30 line which denotes “oversold” conditions.

However, this technical rebound may prove short-lived, and bulls would need a fundamental catalyst to push the SPX500_m higher going into November.

 

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE:

  • 4152.2: lower bound of downtrend since July
  • 4200: psychologically-important level which had repelled bulls on several occasions in 1H23
    (also, 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level from October 2022- July 2023 ascent)
  • 200-day simple moving average (SMA)

 

POTENTIAL SUPPORT:

  • 4106: intraday low on Friday, October 27th
  • 4052.2: mid-way (50 Fibonacci retracement level) from October 2022- July 2023 ascent

 

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Currency Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (3,029 contracts) with the EuroFX (2,843 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,983 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,689 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (504 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-7,427 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,952 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,444 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,342 contracts), Bitcoin (-781 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the sliding trend in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions fell this week by over -7,400 contracts and have now declined for nine consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has dropped by a total of -77,743 contracts over these past nine weeks to the lowest level of the past 30-weeks, dating back to March 28th.

Relatively recently, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts on July 18th) had risen to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years. This marked the highest level for this year’s bullish bets but the speculator positions did a u-turn and have now fallen in twelve out of the fourteen weeks since then.

Hurting the pound’s outlook has been a weak economic landscape and the expectation that the Bank of England could be done with raising interest rates. The BOE, this year, has boosted the bank’s interest rate to the highest level since 2008 at 5.25 percent to fight high inflation (which has eased to 6.7 percent).

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a high over the 1.3000 level in the middle of July. Since that 2023 summer ascension, the Sterling has been dropping sharply, falling through the 1.2500 exchange rate and is currently testing support in the 1.2050-1.2100 range.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-24-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,6704219,67158-20,5314386016
EUR702,6683985,25357-107,9964922,74315
GBP233,25957-18,6364327,33761-8,70141
JPY260,90982-99,62911104,80987-5,18043
CHF59,26692-15,0951527,13689-12,04118
CAD184,74749-48,639953,60093-4,96112
AUD194,66654-83,0811398,85392-15,77214
NZD57,24374-12,8512216,05181-3,20012
MXN194,5303537,86162-40,188372,32726
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL51,454415,18542-6,903561,71850
Bitcoin19,678100-45460-438089233

 


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the Bitcoin (60 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (58 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the British Pound (43 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.9 percent)
EuroFX (56.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.2 percent)
Bitcoin (59.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.3 percent)

 

US Dollar Index & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (-1 percent), the Australian Dollar (-3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Bitcoin (-40 percent), Mexican Peso (-18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.4 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-22.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-45.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-40.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-0.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-32.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (2.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-17.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-40.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-25.8 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.921.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.869.87.9
– Net Position:19,671-20,531860
– Gross Longs:28,1309,2554,240
– Gross Shorts:8,45929,7863,380
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.743.215.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.7-20.3-9.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 85,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.756.411.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.571.88.2
– Net Position:85,253-107,99622,743
– Gross Longs:215,569396,43580,233
– Gross Shorts:130,316504,43157,490
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.648.815.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.915.7-22.6

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.856.911.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.845.215.1
– Net Position:-18,63627,337-8,701
– Gross Longs:67,119132,74426,540
– Gross Shorts:85,755105,40735,241
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.861.041.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.043.9-26.9

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -99,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,029 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.971.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.131.316.3
– Net Position:-99,629104,809-5,180
– Gross Longs:30,964186,38137,435
– Gross Shorts:130,59381,57242,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.986.842.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.5-0.95.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.567.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.021.236.7
– Net Position:-15,09527,136-12,041
– Gross Longs:9,80739,7249,692
– Gross Shorts:24,90212,58821,733
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.288.717.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.826.8-32.5

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.168.817.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.439.819.9
– Net Position:-48,63953,600-4,961
– Gross Longs:22,326127,10131,815
– Gross Shorts:70,96573,50136,776
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.292.611.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.32.95.4

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.473.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.122.617.7
– Net Position:-83,08198,853-15,772
– Gross Longs:28,018142,75318,606
– Gross Shorts:111,09943,90034,378
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.791.614.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.22.9-0.8

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.569.45.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.941.310.7
– Net Position:-12,85116,051-3,200
– Gross Longs:13,44839,7182,942
– Gross Shorts:26,29923,6676,142
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.981.311.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.6-2.7-6.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.068.43.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.589.11.8
– Net Position:37,861-40,1882,327
– Gross Longs:54,446133,1055,771
– Gross Shorts:16,585173,2933,444
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.237.426.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.6-14.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.352.46.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.265.83.5
– Net Position:5,185-6,9031,718
– Gross Longs:20,20326,9733,505
– Gross Shorts:15,01833,8761,787
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.456.250.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.210.2-2.5

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.33.38.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.65.53.7
– Net Position:-454-438892
– Gross Longs:14,8146411,617
– Gross Shorts:15,2681,079725
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.657.333.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.457.313.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Metals Speculator Bets led higher by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (36,647 contracts) with Copper (5,129 contracts), Silver (4,586 contracts), Steel (297 contracts) and Palladium (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a small decrease of -829 contracts.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-24-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold463,47619149,38543-165,8736016,48822
Silver123,9801224,33253-34,5705210,23823
Copper224,70462-20,7601321,40189-64114
Palladium22,459100-11,240211,0859815551
Platinum84,61093-48014-4,832835,31239

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (77 percent) and Silver (53 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (43 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Copper (13 percent) and Platinum (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (42.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (26.7 percent)
Silver (53.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.4 percent)
Copper (12.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (8.5 percent)
Platinum (14.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.4 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (77.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.3 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (11 percent) and Silver (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-17 percent) currently leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.1 percent)
Copper (-7.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-16.5 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.9 percent)
Palladium (-3.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-3.1 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.2 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 36,647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.322.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.058.75.5
– Net Position:149,385-165,87316,488
– Gross Longs:251,469106,18042,129
– Gross Shorts:102,084272,05325,641
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.859.922.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.2-8.1-11.6

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.830.919.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.258.810.7
– Net Position:24,332-34,57010,238
– Gross Longs:51,86038,32123,527
– Gross Shorts:27,52872,89113,289
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.052.023.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-3.1-21.1

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.039.66.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.230.16.9
– Net Position:-20,76021,401-641
– Gross Longs:71,84888,95114,933
– Gross Shorts:92,60867,55015,574
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.989.414.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.39.5-19.5

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.427.810.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.033.54.6
– Net Position:-480-4,8325,312
– Gross Longs:46,04823,5549,166
– Gross Shorts:46,52828,3863,854
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.583.539.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.615.6-4.8

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.456.98.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.47.67.6
– Net Position:-11,24011,085155
– Gross Longs:4,80012,7831,852
– Gross Shorts:16,0401,6981,697
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.797.651.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.52.012.3

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.883.21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.657.01.6
– Net Position:-5,4695,571-102
– Gross Longs:2,30017,678246
– Gross Shorts:7,76912,107348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.523.421.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.71.55.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Cocoa, DowJones & 2-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 95.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.9 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -21,594 net contracts this week with a change of 1,351 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was -10.8 this week. The speculator position registered 77,020 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 5,528 contracts in speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 87.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 283,813 net contracts this week with a change of 62,572 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 85.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -5,353 net contracts this week with a change of 55 contracts in the speculator bets.


Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level sits at a 80.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.7 this week.

The speculator position was 31,988 net contracts this week with a change of -3,195 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -51.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -35,960 net contracts this week with a change of -749 contracts in the speculator bets.


2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,424,312 net contracts this week with a change of -69,613 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -249,869 net contracts this week with a change of -8,704 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.5 this week. The speculator position was -11,240 net contracts this week with a change of 255 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 5.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.8 this week. The speculator position was 36,454 net contracts this week with a change of 9,349 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (147,378 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (122,184 contracts), the Fed Funds (89,836 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (62,572 contracts) and US Treasury Bonds (46,218 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-69,613 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,704 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,065 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-24-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,262,75696283,81387-284,0651325288
FedFunds2,014,70990-205,83425226,92478-21,09050
2-Year4,207,274100-1,424,31201,297,860100126,45296
Long T-Bond1,366,75880-136,2384092,1234344,11581
10-Year4,626,64984-563,36228467,0016596,36194
5-Year5,571,03991-1,008,90318946,8017962,10287

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (87 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (40 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (38 percent) come in as the next highest in the strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (24.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (5.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (18.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (13.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (37.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (38.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (87.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (83.3 percent)

 

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-20 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-4.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-9.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-19.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (5.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (6.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-2.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-3.1 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 283,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 62,572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 221,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.456.20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.759.00.4
– Net Position:283,813-284,065252
– Gross Longs:2,097,6455,767,00939,391
– Gross Shorts:1,813,8326,051,07439,139
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.112.688.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.01.81.8

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -205,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 89,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -295,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.074.81.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.263.52.7
– Net Position:-205,834226,924-21,090
– Gross Longs:160,6151,506,97133,662
– Gross Shorts:366,4491,280,04754,752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.678.049.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.56.8-21.6

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,424,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -69,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,354,699 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.282.16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.151.23.3
– Net Position:-1,424,3121,297,860126,452
– Gross Longs:429,9783,452,942267,147
– Gross Shorts:1,854,2902,155,082140,695
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.095.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.212.66.1

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,008,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 122,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,131,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.482.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.565.06.0
– Net Position:-1,008,903946,80162,102
– Gross Longs:524,7374,567,066395,064
– Gross Shorts:1,533,6403,620,265332,962
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.378.886.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-0.6-3.5

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -563,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 147,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -710,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.777.09.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.966.97.4
– Net Position:-563,362467,00196,361
– Gross Longs:542,3243,562,693438,802
– Gross Shorts:1,105,6863,095,692342,441
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.865.394.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.5-29.015.7

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -249,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.977.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.662.013.5
– Net Position:-249,869304,036-54,167
– Gross Longs:194,3921,523,392212,339
– Gross Shorts:444,2611,219,356266,506
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.481.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.615.119.8

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -136,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 46,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.977.013.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.870.210.6
– Net Position:-136,23892,12344,115
– Gross Longs:93,7361,051,787189,136
– Gross Shorts:229,974959,664145,021
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.543.580.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.6-21.63.0

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -363,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.082.911.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.361.19.4
– Net Position:-363,546338,82024,726
– Gross Longs:92,6551,288,162170,435
– Gross Shorts:456,201949,342145,709
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.564.260.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-2.4-7.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.