InvestMacro

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with a decline. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.26% (-0.75% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.61% (-0.30% for the week). The tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.93% (-0.15% for the week). The US stock market ended the second week of March 2026 in the red, recording its third consecutive week of losses due to a sharp escalation of the military conflict with Iran. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s decision to launch massive strikes on Iranian facilities in response to attacks in the Persian Gulf effectively confirmed the war’s transition into a protracted phase, triggering a flight of capital toward the dollar and safe-haven assets. The situation is exacerbated by the unresolved blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which forces investors to price in a global stagflation scenario in which high energy prices coincide with slowing economic growth. The most painful blow fell on the technology sector and companies with high debt loads, sensitive to rising bond yields. Adobe shares plummeted 7.6% following a disappointing prognosis and the sudden resignation of its CEO, which served as a catalyst for a sell-off in the software industry, affecting even market favorites like Palantir and Meta.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is showing notable weakness, consolidating at the 1.381 level against the US dollar. This decline is driven by a combination of deeply disappointing domestic data and the global dominance of the US currency. The fresh February labor market report for Canada shocked investors: the economy lost 84,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.7%. The situation was aggravated by a slump in the manufacturing sector, where January sales crashed by 3% (to C$68.7 billion) – the worst result in nine months, confirming a serious cooling of the economy. While the Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its rate at 2.25% at its March 18 meeting to contain inflation, the widening yield gap with US treasuries continues to pull the Canadian currency down.

On Friday, European stock markets closed in the red, recording bond yield growth to their highest levels in 15 years amid the prolonged energy crisis. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.60% (+2.00% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.04% (+1.16% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.47% (+2.95% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.24% (-5.33% for the week). Investors have begun pricing in a scenario of prolonged stagflation: the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the war with Iran continue to drive up energy prices, forcing the ECB to consider the possibility of further rate hikes. The European banking sector also found itself at the center of the sell-off, losing a significant portion of its capitalization due to private credit risks and deteriorating divination for net interest margins. The week’s laggards included Deutsche Bank, which collapsed to a nine-month low, and UniCredit, whose quotes reached levels last seen in late 2024.

On Monday, Platinum quotes (XPT) strengthened at the $2,100 per ounce level, showing resilience amid volatility in the precious metals sector. This positive trend is supported by a chronic supply deficit, which the WPIC predicts will persist for the fourth consecutive year. Although the deficit is expected to narrow slightly to 240,000 ounces in 2026, total above-ground stocks continue to deplete and could fall to critical levels by the end of the year.

WTI crude oil prices consolidated above $99 per barrel, briefly peaking at $102.40. The market is reeling as the conflict enters its third week: after US forces launched massive strikes on military targets on Kharg Island during Operation “Epic Fury,” traders are seriously concerned about the safety of the region’s energy infrastructure. Although the recent strikes targeted only mine and missile warehouses, President Donald Trump explicitly warned that the island’s oil terminals, through which 90% of Iranian exports pass, will be the next target if Tehran does not end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

By mid-March 2026, a turning point emerged in the US gas market: Henry Hub natural gas prices fell below $3.15 per MMBtu, losing about 3% of their value. Despite the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in Qatari LNG supplies, domestic factors took precedence – expectations of warm spring weather sharply reduced heating demand, and the weekly EIA report showed a storage withdrawal of only 38 billion cubic feet, significantly lower than expected. Fundamental pressure on prices is also exerted by record domestic production, which reached a historic high of 118.5 billion cubic feet per day, allowing the US to compensate for the global market deficit without compromising its own reserves.

Asian markets also partially recovered last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.04% over the trading week, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped at 2.64%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) climbed up 1.82%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.20% over 5 days.
On Monday, the offshore yuan (CNY) showed a weak attempt at stabilization, rising to the 6.901 mark against the US dollar. This slight increase broke last week’s prolonged decline and was the market’s reaction to an unexpectedly strong block of macroeconomic data from the PRC for January-February. Faster-than-prediction growth in industrial production and retail sales, along with a 1.8% rise in fixed-asset investment, created a short-term foundation for the national currency, confirming the resilience of China’s manufacturing sector against external shocks.

On Thursday, the American market was gripped by panic amid a sharp spike in Brent crude above $100 per barrel. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 1.56%. The S&P500 Index (US500) fell by 1.52%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) dropped by 1.78%. The trigger was the harsh statements made by Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, regarding an indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which completely negated the effect of record commodity interventions by the IEA and forced investors to prepare for a prolonged energy crisis. An additional blow to sentiment was dealt by the financial sector following a 4.1% collapse in Morgan Stanley shares due to a freeze on payments in private credit funds, which intensified fears of a systemic liquidity crisis.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened to the level of 1.365 per US dollar, as the global flight of investors into safe-haven assets outweighed the benefit from the jump in WTI oil prices above $100 per barrel. Domestic pressure on the currency intensified after data showed an increase in Canadian unemployment to 6.8% in February, indicating the labor market’s inability to absorb the influx of new labor. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to maintain the rate at 2.25% at the meeting on March 18.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to 17.83 per dollar, finding itself under double pressure: the flight of investors into safe-haven assets due to Iran’s threats to block the Strait of Hormuz and an unexpected jump in domestic inflation. In February, Mexico’s annual consumer price figure reached 4.02%, which, for the first time in a long period, took inflation outside the central bank’s target range (3% ±1%) and practically nullified the chances for an interest rate cut at the upcoming March meeting. Despite the fact that rising oil prices traditionally support Mexico’s budget revenues, the peso remains extremely vulnerable to geopolitical risk and potential trade tariffs, forcing the Bank of Mexico to maintain a “hawkish” pause and keep the rate at 7.00% to stabilize the currency.

European stock markets continued their decline amid the harsh statements of Iran’s new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who in his first official message called for the closure of US military bases in the region and confirmed the indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The German DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.21%, the French CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down by 0.71%, the Spanish IBEX 35 index (ES35) fell by 1.22%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at a negative 0.47%. Geopolitical tension triggered a sell-off in the banking sector: Deutsche Bank collapsed by 5.4% due to concerns about risks in the 26 billion euro private credit segment and possible legal costs, while Commerzbank shares lost 3.9%. UniCredit and BNP Paribas fell by nearly 4%.

WTI oil futures came close to the $97 per barrel mark, while the North Sea Brent blend settled above $101. The market switched to “war panic” mode after the first official address by Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei: he confirmed that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is Tehran’s strategic priority and will be maintained until the full withdrawal of American bases from the region. The situation was exacerbated by nighttime attacks by Iranian speedboats (IRGC) on the Marshall Islands-flagged tanker “Safe Sia,” which completely paralyzed maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf. The IEA officially recognized the current crisis as the largest supply disruption in history, estimating the drop in global supply in March at 8-10 million barrels per day. Due to the physical impossibility of exporting oil and the overflowing of storage facilities, Persian Gulf countries began a large-scale shutdown of wells, effectively removing 20% of global trade from the market.

Henry Hub natural gas prices (XNG) broke the $3.2 per million BTU mark, reaching a monthly high amid critical disruptions in global supplies. The shutdown of QatarEnergy plants, which provide 20% of the world’s LNG market, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz forced Asian and European consumers to urgently switch to American fuel, leading to a sharp increase in export demand. Despite the global rally, the US domestic market demonstrates restraint: according to the EIA, during the first week of March, inventories decreased by only 28 billion cubic feet, which was less than expectations due to warm weather and record production levels (about 110 billion cubic feet per day). Nevertheless, the close link of the American hub to world prices under the conditions of the Middle East war keeps quotes at a high level, creating the prerequisites for further growth.

Asian markets also followed the general downward trend. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.04% during the trading session, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.35%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.70%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.31%.

On Friday, the offshore yuan (CNY) rate fell to 6.88 per dollar, reacting to a new wave of trade pressure from the US. The Trump administration initiated Section 301(b) investigations against China and a number of other countries, accusing them of using forced labor and creating excess production capacity. These measures are seen by the market as an attempt by Washington to restore tariff pressure leverage after the US Supreme Court previously limited the president’s powers to introduce duties through the IEEPA law. The situation is heating up amid preparations for the critically important summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing, scheduled for the end of March. Despite strong export data from China (growth of 21.8% for January-February), the currency remains extremely sensitive to threats of new 15% tariffs, which could be introduced based on the results of current investigations as early as summer.

On Wednesday, US stock indices closed in the red amid the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf. By the end of the trading session, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.61%. The S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.08%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ (US100) edged up by 0.03%. The primary trigger for the decline was new reports of tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, which sparked a surge in WTI oil prices to $87 per barrel, despite the IEA’s emergency decision to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.

Published inflation data (CPI) for February aligned with analysts’ expectations, showing a 2.4% year-on-year increase. Nevertheless, the bond market reacted with rising Treasury yields as traders fear that the March spike in gasoline prices and logistical chaos will make February’s figures a “relic of the past.” The probability that the Fed will refrain from rate cuts throughout 2026 has risen to 19.3%, with the first potential policy easing now shifted to September.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) showed strong appreciation, rising above the 1.36 mark against the US dollar. The main growth driver was the sustained high cost of WTI crude, which consolidated above $87 per barrel during trading, highlighting Canada’s status as the most stable and secure energy supplier for the North American region. The “loonie” received additional support from the contrast between US and Canadian macroeconomic data. While the US labor market showed signs of cooling (an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs leading to a drop in the Dollar Index), the Canadian economy appears more resilient. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in early 2026, a 16-month low.

European stock markets turned sharply downward, almost entirely erasing the optimism of the previous session. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.37%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.19%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped 0.53%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.56% lower yesterday. The primary pressure factor was the growing positive correlation between stocks and government bonds: investors sold off both asset classes amid fears that the energy shock would lead to a prolonged period of high inflation, forcing the ECB to hike rates.

The Swiss franc (CHF) traded around 0.78 against the US dollar on Wednesday, continuing to hold near record highs. Its “safe-haven” status ensured a powerful capital inflow for the franc amid the twelfth day of active hostilities in Iran and the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are ignoring risky assets in favor of the Swiss currency, viewing it as protection against global uncertainty. However, for the Swiss economy itself, such strength in the national currency is becoming a serious challenge. In response, the SNB moved from words to action: sight deposit data indicate that the regulator has already begun conducting foreign exchange interventions, buying foreign currency to weaken the franc.

On Thursday, the oil market entered a phase of extreme volatility: WTI futures jumped to $95 per barrel, gaining more than 8% in a single session. This rapid rise occurred against the backdrop of dramatic news from Iraq, where authorities were forced to completely suspend operations at oil terminals. The cause was attacks on two tankers in Iraqi territorial waters – the vessels were struck by explosive-laden drone boats and caught fire. This incident clearly confirmed that the risk zone in the Persian Gulf has expanded far beyond the Strait of Hormuz, encompassing the region’s key export hubs. The market’s reaction to the IEA’s decision to release 400 million barrels proved short-lived. Investors quickly concluded that even such massive interventions are merely a “temporary bandage” against the backdrop of a full blockade of the strait and production cuts by leading regional producers who no longer have storage space for oil that cannot be exported. The situation is exacerbated by Iran’s hawkish rhetoric: the republic’s military command openly warned the world of the prospect of $200 per barrel oil if the US and Israel do not cease their strikes.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.43% during the session, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.98%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.24%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.59% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, a wave of sell-offs swept the Australian stock market: the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell by 1.3%, breaking a two-day recovery period. Investors were spooked by the new round of rising oil prices, which, combined with hawkish rhetoric from RBA officials, made an interest rate hike next week almost inevitable. As a result, the market instantly repriced the odds of a March 17 rate hike: the probability is now estimated at 75% (up from 30% at the start of the week). The country’s largest banks, including CBA, Westpac, and ANZ, simultaneously revised their predictions, expecting rate hikes in March and May to a peak level of 4.35%.

On Tuesday, the US stock market concluded the session with a slight decline. The Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.07%, and the S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.21%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ (US100) managed a marginal gain of 0.01%. Investors found themselves in a state of uncertainty: the initial optimism sparked by President Trump’s claims of a swift end to the military operation met a harsh reality following clarifications from the White House. Official confirmation that naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have not yet commenced, combined with reports of a potential Iranian mining threat, forced traders to remain cautious and partially rotate into cash.

Market attention has now shifted entirely to the upcoming inflation data. Traders fear that the recent spike in energy prices has already permeated macroeconomic indicators, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer than previously anticipated.

European equity markets mostly trended higher. The German DAX (DE40) surged by 2.39%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.79%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped to 3.05%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished at 1.59% higher. The primary catalyst for the optimism in Frankfurt was Donald Trump’s rhetoric regarding a potential de-escalation in the Middle East, which led to a retreat in oil prices and eased fears of runaway inflation in the Eurozone.

However, the WTI oil market became an arena for intense informational warfare. After a morning slump to $80 per barrel, triggered by Trump’s “peaceful” tweets, quotes rebounded sharply to close near $87. This reversal followed an official statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which labeled Washington’s claims of an imminent end to the war as “false,” promising to block regional oil exports until US and Israeli strikes cease entirely. The situation intensified as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, overseeing Operation “Epic Fury,” called Tuesday the “most intense day of airstrikes” since the conflict began, signaling a phase of systematic destruction of Iran’s industrial and naval infrastructure. The IEA has proposed a record-breaking release of strategic oil reserves; however, the physical blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a collapse in production from major Middle Eastern producers. This creates a supply deficit that reserves cannot fully offset, driving investors toward silver and other metals as a hedge against stagflation.

Asian markets also rebounded yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.88%, the FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 1.06%, the Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 2.17%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.09%. Drivers for this optimism included strong corporate news and trade statistics from mainland China. China’s trade data for January-February 2026 continues to impress, with exports growing by a record 21.8% and imports by 19.8%. However, these strong figures also breed caution; investors worry that Beijing may view the economy as sufficiently resilient and delay further stimulus measures, especially given the recently announced 4.5-5.0% GDP target – the lowest in decades.

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) made an impressive leap to 0.716-0.718 USD, its highest level in nearly four years. This was driven by a sharp revision in interest rate expectations. The market reacted to signals from the RBA: the probability of a rate hike on March 17 skyrocketed from 30% to 75% in just days. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed that the spike in fuel prices (with petrol exceeding $2.15 per liter in major cities) poses a significant risk to inflation expectations, which already sit above the 23% target range.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) stabilized at 0.593-0.594 USD on March 11, 2026, holding weekly highs. This rise reflects a hawkish shift in investor sentiment. While the RBNZ signaled rate stability at 2.25% as recently as February, the March energy shock has forced the market to price in imminent tightening. Leading banks such as Westpac and BNZ have revised their inflation prognosis upward, expecting the CPI to remain within the upper 3.0% target boundary for most of 2026.