InvestMacro

Armed confrontation in the Middle East has entered its fifth week with no visible prospects for de‑escalation

On Friday, the US stock markets continued their active decline, hitting the lowest levels in the past seven months amid fears of global stagflation. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.73% (down -1.39% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.67% (down -3.13% for the week). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.93% (down -4.69% for the week). The sharp rise in energy prices has effectively deprived investors of hope for Federal Reserve policy easing this year, while additional pressure came from China’s launch of a trade investigation against the United States in response to tariff measures.

The technology sector is experiencing a massive capital outflow, which has seriously undermined the positions of companies linked to the artificial‑intelligence industry. Shares of giants such as Tesla, Amazon, and Oracle lost more than 3%, while worsening credit conditions triggered a similar decline in JPMorgan and Visa. The most dramatic drop was seen in Meta, whose market value plunged by 12% in recent days due to large‑scale layoffs and an unfavorable court ruling declaring the social network addictive.

The Mexican peso weakened, breaking through the psychological level of 18 per US dollar and reaching its lowest value since the beginning of winter. The main reason for this dynamic was the narrowing interest‑rate differential between the US and Mexico, which made previously popular carry‑trade strategies less attractive. Investors reacted to the unexpected decision by the Bank of Mexico to resume its monetary‑policy easing cycle and cut the rate to 6.75%, despite inflation accelerating to 4.63% in mid‑March. The regulator was driven by slowing domestic economic activity and negative labor‑market data showing rising unemployment and persistently high informal employment.

European stock markets closed lower but remained in positive territory for the week. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.38% (up +1.61% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.87% (up +2.12% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.95% (up +2.53% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.05% (up +0.49% for the week). Price pressure in the oil market has already begun to translate into real inflation indicators. The scale of the problem was most clearly reflected in Spain, where consumer‑price growth in March reached multi‑year highs, showing the sharpest monthly jump since the 2022 crisis. Against this backdrop, the banking sector continued to suffer losses due to instability in the sovereign‑debt market, leading to noticeable declines in shares of giants such as BBVA, UniCredit, and Deutsche Bank.

The oil market opened the week with strong gains, rising about 3% and consolidating above the psychological level of 102 dollars per barrel. Investors are increasingly skeptical about a quick end to the conflict in Iran, which has now entered its second month. The situation was further complicated by the direct involvement of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who launched missile strikes on Israeli territory over the weekend and declared their intention to continue attacks until pressure on Tehran ceases. Another destabilizing factor is the ability of rebel groups to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and attack strategic facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Asian markets also mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.72% for the trading week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.66%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a five‑day gain of 2.81%.

Monday’s trading session in Asian markets opened with a noticeable decline, as the armed confrontation in the Middle East entered its fifth week with no visible prospects for de‑escalation. The geopolitical situation worsened after Donald Trump’s high‑profile statements about a possible takeover of Iran’s oil resources, coinciding with active involvement in the conflict by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who carried out attacks on Israeli territory.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,368.85 −108.31 (−1.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,166.64 −793.47 (−1.73%)

DAX (DE40) 22,300.75 −312.22 (−1.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,967.35 −4.82 (−0.05%)

USD Index 100.19 +0.29% (+0.29%)

News feed for: 2026.03.30

Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions at 02:50 (GMT+3); – JPY (MED)
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3); – CHF (LOW)
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3); – EUR (MED)
US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3). – USD, XAU (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Mar

EUR/USD: Middle East Conflict Still Determines Sentiment

By Analytical Department RoboForex

EUR/USD edged higher on Monday after earlier declines, reaching 1.1516. The US dollar continues to draw support from safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has now entered its fifth week with no signs of resolution.

Tensions escalated following Donald Trump’s remarks regarding the possible confiscation of Iranian oil and control of the export hub on Kharg Island. At the same time, the US is increasing its military presence in the region and preparing for potentially prolonged operations. Iran-aligned forces, including the Houthis in Yemen, have also joined the conflict.

Rising oil prices in this environment are amplifying inflation risks and reinforcing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a rate hike this year, marking a notable shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts.

Investor focus now turns to US macroeconomic data. This week will see the release of labour market indicators, including JOLTS and ADP figures, as well as the key March employment report due on Friday.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.1528. A downside breakout is expected, with a continuation wave to 1.1404 as a near-term target, followed by a subsequent rebound to 1.1528. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator – its signal line is below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting sustained bearish momentum and the potential for the downtrend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave towards 1.1440. After reaching this level, a rebound to 1.1535 is expected, potentially extending the move to 1.1647. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator – its signal line is below 50 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains firmly driven by geopolitical forces, with the Middle East conflict entering its fifth week and showing no signs of de-escalation. The US dollar’s safe-haven appeal continues to dominate, while escalating tensions and rising oil prices have shifted market expectations from rate cuts to the possibility of a Fed hike later this year. Technical indicators point to further near-term downside, although this week’s US labour market data could introduce volatility. Until there is a tangible shift in the geopolitical landscape, the euro is likely to remain under pressure.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Mar

Euro Large Speculator Bets dropped to 55-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (7,093 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (5,616 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,974 contracts), the Australian Dollar (1,811 contracts) and Bitcoin (333 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-11,853 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,488 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,949 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,884 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-76 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-69 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets dropped to 55-Week Low

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positions this week was the continued drop in the Euro speculator bullish position. It has been quite a turnaround for the Euro speculator positions in recent weeks as speculators pushed the Euro net positions to an all-time top ten high bullish position on February 10th at a total of 180,305 net contracts. Since that recent high, Euro positions have fallen for six consecutive weeks and by -171,026 net contracts over that time period. This has brought the overall speculator position down from 180,305 bullish positions to this week’s net contract level of just 9,279 contracts. Overall, the Euro position has continuously been in a bullish standing since March 11th of 2025. The Euro price has now fallen below the 1.1600 exchange rate in the Currency markets and has now declined in six out of the last nine weeks and currently trades at the 1.1556 area. The Euro traded as high as 1.2110 late in January before the Iran war broke out and has now come back towards the 1.1500 major support level.

The Canadian Dollar speculative position this week fell by approximately -2,500 contracts and has now fallen three out of the past four weeks. This negative sentiment has brought the Canadian Dollar speculator position back into a small bearish position of -1,602 net positions this week. The Canadian Dollar contracts had been in a strong bearish position for the past few years before seeing a turnaround and rising into bullish bets in early February. That had pushed the bullish position up to as high as +36,159 contracts on March 10th. However, since then, the speculative position has fallen off and culminated in a bearish level this week. The Canadian Dollar in the Currency markets has been on the decline as well and has fallen for three consecutive weeks against the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar recently bounced to lower levels off the 200-week moving average (CAD traded as high as 0.7431 in late January) and has now trended lower to this week’s close at 0.7225.

The Mexican Peso position rebounded this week with a gain of over 5,500 net contracts. This breaks an eight-week losing streak that had seen the overall net position fall from 103,114 net contracts on January 27th to a total of 68,460 net contracts on March 17th. This week’s gain brings the overall net position back above +70,000 contracts to +74,076 net contracts. Overall, the Mexican Peso has pretty much seen strong bullish speculator positions dating back to March of 2023 through the current period (save for a small bullish positioning streak in late 2024). The Mexican Peso in the Currency markets this week, although, has continued on a decline for five consecutive weeks against the US Dollar. However, overall, the Mexican Peso has been higher against the US Dollar since the beginning of 2025 by approximately 15%.

The US Dollar Index contracts were virtually unchanged this week with a small decline of just 76 contracts. Overall, the US Dollar net positioning has now been in a consecutive bullish position for two weeks straight after seeing a large +9,575 net contract change on March 17th. The US Dollar Index in the Currency markets has now been higher in four out of the past six weeks and trades right around the major 100.00 level, which may determine the currency’s direction in the near and medium term. The US Dollar Index has now rallied by approximately 5% since hitting a low near 95.36 in January.

Brazilian Real and US Dollar Index lead weekly Currency Market Price Performance

The Currency Market Price Performance this week was heavily skewed towards the downside as only two currencies had positive returns over the past five days, while nine currencies had lower prices on the week. The Brazilian Real led the way with a 0.95% increase on the week and was followed by the US Dollar Index, which improved by 0.58%.

On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Bitcoin, which fell by -5.78%, with the next largest decliner on the week being the Australian Dollar, which fell by -2.14%. The Peso, the Mexican Peso, declined by -1.57%, followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which fell by -1.45%. The Swiss Franc was lower by -1.3%. The Canadian Dollar dipped by -1.22%, while the Japanese Yen decreased by -0.66%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -0.59%, and the Euro rounds out the decliners on the week with a -0.53% dip.

Over the past 30 days, all of the Currency markets were lower except for the US Dollar Index, which is up by 3.80% over that time period.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (84 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the US Dollar Index (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (32 percent), the Japanese Yen (33 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (34 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (53.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (32.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (36.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (83.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (84.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (99.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (38.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (53.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.8 percent)
Bitcoin (97.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.3 percent)

Swiss Franc & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and Bitcoin (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (21 percent), the Brazilian Real (13 percent) and the US Dollar Index (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (12.3 percent)
EuroFX (-65.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-54.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-21.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-0.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (24.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-15.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (12.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.4 percent)
Bitcoin (23.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -76 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	29.5	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	42.3	5.3
– Net Position:	3,617	-4,615	998
– Gross Longs:	20,457	10,652	2,903
– Gross Shorts:	16,840	15,267	1,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.9	44.0	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-18.3	41.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 9,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	58.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	64.2	6.2
– Net Position:	9,279	-46,758	37,479
– Gross Longs:	200,025	444,118	84,972
– Gross Shorts:	190,746	490,876	47,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	65.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.1	64.4	-38.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	67.9	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	42.3	11.9
– Net Position:	-58,422	61,187	-2,765
– Gross Longs:	46,459	162,128	25,772
– Gross Shorts:	104,881	100,941	28,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	84.1	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	18.0	-35.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	51.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	33.4	11.1
– Net Position:	-62,806	57,901	4,905
– Gross Longs:	98,271	167,443	41,460
– Gross Shorts:	161,077	109,542	36,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.5	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.4	-3.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	72.6	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	31.6	22.1
– Net Position:	-27,097	31,364	-4,267
– Gross Longs:	7,831	55,554	12,634
– Gross Shorts:	34,928	24,190	16,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.0	50.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-10.3	-37.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	44.2	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.0	44.9	15.7
– Net Position:	-1,602	-1,371	2,973
– Gross Longs:	62,382	80,788	31,593
– Gross Shorts:	63,984	82,159	28,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.8	17.3	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	7.6	-11.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 70,872 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	31.1	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	67.7	6.4
– Net Position:	70,872	-94,367	23,495
– Gross Longs:	132,629	80,063	39,940
– Gross Shorts:	61,757	174,430	16,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-16.6	-5.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	77.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.2	34.9	6.3
– Net Position:	-27,006	27,694	-688
– Gross Longs:	10,847	50,393	3,403
– Gross Shorts:	37,853	22,699	4,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	65.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-6.7	-25.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 74,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.3	40.7	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	87.0	1.6
– Net Position:	74,076	-77,232	3,156
– Gross Longs:	92,246	67,758	5,899
– Gross Shorts:	18,170	144,990	2,743
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	45.8	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	8.1	-5.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.6	21.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	69.8	0.9
– Net Position:	49,248	-53,067	3,819
– Gross Longs:	75,354	23,593	4,777
– Gross Shorts:	26,106	76,660	958
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	5.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	23.4	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-11.9	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.2	1.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.1	9.3	5.4
– Net Position:	2,106	-1,949	-157
– Gross Longs:	15,861	224	1,097
– Gross Shorts:	13,755	2,173	1,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	13.2	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-18.5	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Mar

Speculator Extremes: AUD, Steel & Soybean Oil lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday March 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position once again comes in at the top of the extreme standing this week with a maximum 100% score out of its three-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score was a gain of 21% this week while the speculator net position registered a total of 70,872 net contracts this week after a weekly change of 1,811 contracts.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Steel speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a change of 14 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 14,462 net contracts this week with a gain of 595 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings as the Soybean Oil speculator level resides at a 98 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 33 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 117,135 net contracts this week with a dip by -2,962 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a rise of 23 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was 2,106 net contracts this week with an increase of 333 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as this market sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a jump by 51 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 127,071 net contracts this week with a rise of 24,533 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -31 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -1,638,179 net contracts this week with a decline of -155,512 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Cocoa speculator level at just a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip of -1 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -20,116 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,257 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The GBP speculator level resides at a 15 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -14 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -58,422 net contracts this week with a gain of 7,093 contracts in the speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the Natural Gas speculator level is at a 22 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was unchanged this week while the speculator position was -172,607 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,422 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

Next, the Silver speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week as the Silver speculator level is at a 28 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 3 percentage points this week and the speculator position was 24,673 net contracts this week with a small boost of 2,792 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

29 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Steel Speculator Bets continue to rise to New Record High

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,458 contracts) with Silver (2,792 contracts) and Steel (595 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-10,507 contracts), Palladium (-1,057 contracts) and with Platinum (-700 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel Speculator Positions continue to rise to New Record High

Highlighting the weekly speculator positions was the Steel speculator position which rose this week for a third consecutive week. The Steel position has been rising consistently higher over the past months with gains in 13 out of the past 17 weeks. The Steel speculator position is currently at an all-time high record at 14,462 contracts, according to the CFTC data — although it is a limited dataset going back only to 2020. This market traditionally has held negative speculative positions, but since September, the overall net position has been bullish with 12 out of the last 13 weeks seeing bullish positions above +10,000 net contracts. The open interest levels for Steel are also at all-time record highs, showing there are more open positions and interest in the market than has been seen going back to data beginning in 2020.

Copper and Silver lead Metals markets price performance this week.

The major Metals markets this week were led by Copper, which rose by 3.40% over the past five days. Silver was next with a gain of 3.09%. Steel rose by 0.50% on the week while Gold rounded out the gainers with a 0.32% rise. Palladium fell by -1.92% on the week, while Platinum was the biggest loser on the week with a decline of -3.36%.

Over the past 30 days, the high-flying Metals markets have come back to Earth with Steel being the only Metals market that has seen a gain over the past 30 days with a 4.94% rise. Palladium has fallen by -18.31% over the past 30 days, while Platinum has dipped by -9.57%. Gold is down by -8.13%, with Silver lower by -6.36%, and Copper has fallen by -5.80% in these past 30 days.

However, over the past 90 days, all of the Metals markets still have positive returns except for Palladium, which has fallen by just -0.45%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

On the downside, Silver (28 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (39.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.3 percent)
Silver (28.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.6 percent)
Copper (68.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (78.0 percent)
Platinum (51.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (53.3 percent)
Palladium (83.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.7 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (97.2 percent)

Steel & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (14 percent) and Platinum (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-2.4 percent)
Silver (2.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.7 percent)
Copper (-7.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.2 percent)
Platinum (10.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.5 percent)
Palladium (-11.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.7 percent)
Steel (14.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 168,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	19.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	69.5	3.4
– Net Position:	168,327	-203,828	35,501
– Gross Longs:	220,861	76,997	49,273
– Gross Shorts:	52,534	280,825	13,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	54.5	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.4	-6.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	26.1	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.7	7.9
– Net Position:	24,673	-40,288	15,615
– Gross Longs:	33,938	29,511	24,555
– Gross Shorts:	9,265	69,799	8,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	72.8	38.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	3.0	-19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	61.8	4.7
– Net Position:	37,537	-46,288	8,751
– Gross Longs:	68,491	90,872	19,196
– Gross Shorts:	30,954	137,160	10,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	30.5	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	12.5	-31.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	31.1	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	66.4	5.0
– Net Position:	16,198	-21,749	5,551
– Gross Longs:	26,146	19,093	8,601
– Gross Shorts:	9,948	40,842	3,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	50.4	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-7.6	-13.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	36.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	36.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-1,242	-15	1,257
– Gross Longs:	6,468	5,488	2,389
– Gross Shorts:	7,710	5,503	1,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	17.6	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	10.3	2.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	58.1	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	94.1	0.6
– Net Position:	14,462	-14,946	484
– Gross Longs:	15,769	24,143	736
– Gross Shorts:	1,307	39,089	252
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.0	-1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

29 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets boosted by record week for 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (325,016 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (134,015 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (58,570 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27,241 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-155,512 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-44,009 contracts), the Fed Funds (-8,643 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-8,050 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-2,194 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators slash their bearish 5-Year Bond bets by most on record

The 5-Year Bond this week highlights the weekly speculator changes for the Bonds markets. The 5-Year Bonds speculator positions rose this week by 325,016 weekly net contracts and have now risen for three consecutive weeks. The 5-Year Bond speculator bets have been improving and have been positive in 9 out of the past 12 weeks with a gain of +954,361 net contracts over these past 12 weeks. This week’s rise by 325,016 weekly net contracts represents the highest 1-week change on record for speculator bets, according to CFTC data going back to the late 1980s.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions, like most of the other major Bond positions, have been consistently bearish in recent years (the last time there has been multiple weeks of bullish positions for the 5-Year was in 2021). The 5-Year Bond hit an all-time low in speculator positions in September at a position of -2,463,971 net contracts. However, since that all-time low position, there has been an improvement in the 5-Year Bond speculator position, and this week the overall position comes in at -1,448,436 net contracts.

Bond market price performance was mostly unchanged on the week

The Bonds markets were modestly changed over the past five days, with the Two-Year Bond seeing a slight uptick by 0.10%, while the One-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) was just a tick higher by 0.02%, and the Three-Month SOFR was higher by even less at an increase of 0.01%. The Fed Funds was relatively unchanged. The Five-Year Bond was slightly lower by -0.10%, while the Treasury Bonds were lower by -0.22%, and the Ten-Year Note was down by -0.30% on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 5-Year Bonds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the SOFR 3-Months (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (51.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (64.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (47.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (60.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (65.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (62.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (54.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (86.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (66.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (54.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (44.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (37.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (30.1 percent)

5-Year, 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (35 percent), 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Fed Funds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 2-Year Bond (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (20.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-30.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-11.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (34.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-3.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	63.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	62.3	1.9
– Net Position:	-32,042	17,698	14,344
– Gross Longs:	350,243	1,397,663	57,058
– Gross Shorts:	382,285	1,379,965	42,714
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	47.4	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.7	-6.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -425,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 134,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -559,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	57.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	53.9	0.1
– Net Position:	-425,910	424,393	1,517
– Gross Longs:	1,864,974	6,971,504	19,178
– Gross Shorts:	2,290,884	6,547,111	17,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	63.1	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-1.9	0.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 58,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	58.8	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	50.3	1.2
– Net Position:	-130,667	130,758	-91
– Gross Longs:	327,967	909,195	18,922
– Gross Shorts:	458,634	778,437	19,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.3	-0.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,638,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,482,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	47.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,638,179	1,555,767	82,412
– Gross Longs:	572,897	3,825,356	213,847
– Gross Shorts:	2,211,076	2,269,589	131,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.5	34.5	-13.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,448,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 325,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,773,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	79.8	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	58.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-1,448,436	1,409,435	39,001
– Gross Longs:	722,744	5,244,682	401,263
– Gross Shorts:	2,171,180	3,835,247	362,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	39.1	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.6	-30.8	-48.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -641,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -44,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -597,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	74.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	63.2	7.0
– Net Position:	-641,887	600,134	41,753
– Gross Longs:	755,844	3,863,211	404,699
– Gross Shorts:	1,397,731	3,263,077	362,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	45.1	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-17.9	-21.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -178,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 27,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	81.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	70.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-178,553	270,472	-91,919
– Gross Longs:	208,377	1,917,811	207,204
– Gross Shorts:	386,930	1,647,339	299,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	46.7	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	-4.9	34.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	72.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	78.1	7.8
– Net Position:	6,570	-97,538	90,968
– Gross Longs:	236,195	1,302,472	231,398
– Gross Shorts:	229,625	1,400,010	140,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.7	21.1	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	6.1	-21.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -279,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	84.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	73.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-279,187	257,620	21,567
– Gross Longs:	131,831	1,881,002	197,970
– Gross Shorts:	411,018	1,623,382	176,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	40.8	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	-4.9	22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Mar

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI, Natural Gas & Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI, Natural Gas & Brent Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (14,932 contracts) with Natural Gas (5,422 contracts), Brent Oil (5,002 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (882 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gasoline (-6,749 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-5,864 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

WTI Highlights Speculator Bets this week

WTI Crude Oil highlights the speculator bets this week with an increase of 14,932 net positions through Tuesday. The WTI Crude Oil speculator bets have been higher in 8 out of the past 11 weeks and have risen by +176,268 net contracts over that time-frame. The March 10th week saw a sharp increase with a weekly jump by +55,865 net positions. This week’s total net position for WTI Crude Oil is at +233,620 net contracts, which marks the highest position in 38 weeks, dating back to July 1, 2025 as the last time contracts have been higher than this week.

WTI Crude Leads Price Performance

Leading the Energy markets this week in price performance was WTI Crude Oil, which rose by 2.28% on the week. This was followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which was up by 0.82%, and Heating Oil, which saw a 0.43% increase over the last five days. On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Gasoline, which fell by -1.52%, followed by Natural Gas, which was down by -0.89%. Finally, Brent Oil slipped this week by -0.42%.

Over the past 30 days, the Energy markets have been exploding higher due to the Iran war. Heating Oil is up by 86% over the past 30 days. Brent Crude Oil is higher by 65% in that time-frame while WTI Crude Oil is up by 62%. Gasoline is higher by 51% over that period and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is higher by 17.39%.

Natural Gas is the outlier and has been lower by -1.21% over the past 30 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & WTI Crude

On the downside, Natural Gas (21.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (62.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (57.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (56.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (49.0 percent)
Natural Gas (21.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (18.2 percent)
Gasoline (64.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (71.7 percent)
Heating Oil (56.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (63.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (51.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.5 percent)

WTI Crude & Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (37.3 percent) and Brent Oil (26.4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Gasoline (-22.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-13.0 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (37.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (30.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (16.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-0.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-3.7 percent)
Gasoline (-22.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (0.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-13.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-13.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-25.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 233,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,688 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	42.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	55.4	2.2
– Net Position:	233,620	-267,010	33,390
– Gross Longs:	376,150	841,200	76,513
– Gross Shorts:	142,530	1,108,210	43,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	35.2	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-34.0	-9.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	42.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	37.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-17,555	15,373	2,182
– Gross Longs:	86,045	134,198	11,152
– Gross Shorts:	103,600	118,825	8,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	42.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-30.1	12.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -172,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	37.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	27.2	2.5
– Net Position:	-172,607	152,748	19,859
– Gross Longs:	210,159	562,540	56,760
– Gross Shorts:	382,766	409,792	36,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	79.1	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-4.4	18.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 69,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	50.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	73.5	3.5
– Net Position:	69,846	-83,418	13,572
– Gross Longs:	92,274	177,748	26,021
– Gross Shorts:	22,428	261,166	12,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	28.4	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	20.3	-0.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	52.8	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	64.4	9.4
– Net Position:	9,567	-29,596	20,029
– Gross Longs:	37,342	134,964	43,977
– Gross Shorts:	27,775	164,560	23,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	38.4	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	8.8	1.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	69.2	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	63.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-11,732	11,283	449
– Gross Longs:	60,948	138,240	486
– Gross Shorts:	72,680	126,957	37
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.2	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.0	-24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

29 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar and Corn continue to see strong Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was a gigantic jump for Sugar (111,951 contracts) with Corn (63,018 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,533 contracts), Wheat (8,580 contracts), Coffee (6,830 contracts), Cotton (6,042 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,985 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-14,913 contracts), Soybeans (-5,856 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,962 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,257 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Sugar and Corn continue to see strong Speculator Bets

Highlighting the Soft Commodities speculator positional changes this week was Sugar, which saw a substantial influx of positive speculator positions. The net speculator position rose by 111,951 net contracts this week, marking the highest one-week amount in history for Sugar positions. Sugar has now seen speculator bets rise for five consecutive weeks, taking the overall net position from a level of -253,592 net contracts on February 17th to this week’s total of -95,804 net contracts. Overall, Sugar speculator bets have been in a bearish position since May of 2025 but this week’s level is the least bearish position since September.

Corn also saw a jump in speculator positions and rose by 63,000 contracts this week. The Corn speculator position has now risen for seven consecutive weeks, and over that time frame, the net position has improved by a huge 410,058 net contracts. This has taken the total spec position from a negative standing of -18,333 contracts on February 10th to a strong bullish position this week of 375,360 net contracts.

Soybean Oil and Cotton led Soft Commodities price performance.

The Soft Commodities price performance this week was led by Soybean Oil, which rose by almost 5% on the week with a 4.86% gain. Next up was Cotton, which rose by just over 3.5% with a 3.56% increase. Live Cattle was up by 2.3%. Sugar rose by 1.63% and was followed by Wheat with a 1.40% gain and Lean Hogs with 1.31% increase on the week. Rounding out the gainers was Soybeans with a 0.46% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Meal was the biggest loser on the week with a -2.80% decline, followed by Cocoa, which dipped by -2.50%, and Coffee, which fell by -2.15%. Corn was a little bit lower this week with a -1.17% decrease over the last five-day period.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (98 percent) and Soybean Meal (95 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (91 percent), Wheat (90 percent) and Corn (87 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (30 percent) and Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (87.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (78.7 percent)
Sugar (29.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.6 percent)
Coffee (48.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybeans (91.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (98.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (94.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (54.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (60.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (71.1 percent)
Cotton (52.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (48.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.7 percent)
Wheat (89.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (82.0 percent)

Corn & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (54 percent) and Soybean Meal (51 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (48 percent), Cotton (44 percent) and Soybean Oil (33 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-4 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (53.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (47.2 percent)
Sugar (26.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.5 percent)
Coffee (11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.2 percent)
Soybeans (15.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (32.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (44.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.7 percent)
Cotton (43.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (35.1 percent)
Cocoa (-1.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (48.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 375,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 63,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 312,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	58.1	11.0
– Net Position:	375,360	-314,222	-61,138
– Gross Longs:	505,346	729,492	137,322
– Gross Shorts:	129,986	1,043,714	198,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	9.6	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.6	-53.3	-49.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -95,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 111,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	51.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-95,804	76,329	19,475
– Gross Longs:	205,205	482,040	90,528
– Gross Shorts:	301,009	405,711	71,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	68.5	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-30.3	51.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	37.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.6	5.0
– Net Position:	25,424	-26,309	885
– Gross Longs:	53,346	65,731	9,573
– Gross Shorts:	27,922	92,040	8,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	52.7	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-11.6	8.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 215,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 221,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	65.1	8.7
– Net Position:	215,210	-182,268	-32,942
– Gross Longs:	282,458	441,990	50,876
– Gross Shorts:	67,248	624,258	83,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	10.9	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-14.5	-17.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 117,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	46.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	64.6	3.5
– Net Position:	117,135	-130,555	13,420
– Gross Longs:	172,116	346,316	38,917
– Gross Shorts:	54,981	476,871	25,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	2.3	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.6	-32.1	18.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 127,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 24,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	43.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	69.2	4.3
– Net Position:	127,071	-150,757	23,686
– Gross Longs:	177,113	248,242	48,314
– Gross Shorts:	50,042	398,999	24,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	2.3	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.3	-56.6	48.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	31.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	51.8	12.8
– Net Position:	82,147	-69,198	-12,949
– Gross Longs:	136,153	104,088	29,818
– Gross Shorts:	54,006	173,286	42,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	37.9	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	5.1	-2.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,913 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	33.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	45.8	8.5
– Net Position:	48,145	-40,130	-8,015
– Gross Longs:	127,801	114,534	20,532
– Gross Shorts:	79,656	154,664	28,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	43.2	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	26.0	4.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	47.3	3.6
– Net Position:	22,267	-28,974	6,707
– Gross Longs:	120,118	126,034	18,361
– Gross Shorts:	97,851	155,008	11,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.3	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-43.6	40.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -20,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	49.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	39.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-20,116	19,816	300
– Gross Longs:	43,450	96,660	9,942
– Gross Shorts:	63,566	76,844	9,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	100.0	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	2.0	-10.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	34.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	31.1	6.5
– Net Position:	-17,088	16,349	739
– Gross Longs:	137,228	167,283	32,319
– Gross Shorts:	154,316	150,934	31,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	4.4	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.1	-55.2	8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

27 Mar

Week Ahead: Iran risk – hold longer with Gold Futures/Index

By ForexTime

Iran war keeps world on edge
Prediction markets put odds of a ceasefire by end of April ↓ 50%
New launched gold index/futures offset CFD risk
Geopolitics + NFP = fresh volatility
Technical levels – $4600 and $4300

Market sentiment remains fragile as the Iran war keeps the world on edge.

Mixed signals, ongoing conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have sparked extreme levels of volatility. Washington talks up peace deals, but Tehran rejects repeatedly.

Prediction markets are putting the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by end-April below 50%.

Given the growing uncertainty, this could spell more volatility in the week ahead already packed with high-impact data:

Monday, 30th March

JPY: Retail Sales (Feb)
EUR: Eurozone Economic Confidence
GER40: German Inflation Rate (March)
GOLDInd: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Tuesday, 31st March

CNH: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes
EUR: Inflation Rates Flash (March)
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales
GOLDInd: US Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, 1st April

CNH: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (March)
CAD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)
OIL: EIA Crude Oil Stocks
GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
GOLDJ6: US Retail Sales, ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Thursday, 2nd April

CHF: Switzerland CPI
GOLDInd: Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, 3rd April

CNY: RatingDog Services PMI
GOLDInd: US NFP (March), ISM Service PMI

Last week, gold saw its biggest weekly loss since 1983 despite the deepening conflict.

The culprits were a broadly stronger dollar and fears around conflict-induced inflation resulting in higher US interest rates.

Considering how volatility may remain a key theme, FXTM’s newly launched Gold Index and Futures may be ideal for offsetting spot CFD risk.

FXTM’s GOLDJ6 future

FXTM’s GOLDJ6 is 100% pegged to CME Group Futures price for absolute price clarity, charging traders zero swap when holding overnight positions.

This asset is a gift for active and long-term traders who want full price transparency without financing drag of holding positions over extended periods.

FXTM’s GOLDInd

FXTM’s GOLDInd tracks the spot/future price with fixed swap and spreads.

This asset is ideal for traders who want to hold the position over an extended period at a fixed cost, avoiding surprise overnight charges or widening spreads sparked by volatility.

With all the above said, here are 3 key factors that may influence Gold Futures & Indices.

1) Ongoing Iran conflict

In the latest twist to the Iran war, Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US by 10 days.

This development comes after Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal and responded with its own negotiation plans.

It’s still unclear who the US is engaging in talks with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed amid the ongoing conflict.

If the conflict deepens with both sides attacking key energy infrastructure, gold futures/index may dip as surging oil prices fuel inflation fears.
Any signs of easing tensions and re-opening of the Straight of Hormuz to the US may weaken gold as inflation concerns cool.

2) US March NFP

The March US jobs report on Friday 3rd April will act as a key gauge over the health of the labour markets.

Here’s what economists predict for this closely-watched jobs report:

Headline NFP figure: 51,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be a sharp rebound from February’s -92,000 headline NFP figure.

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

If so, this would match February’s unemployment rate

Average hourly earnings month-on-month (March 2026 vs. Feb 2026): 0.3%

If so, this would be lower than February’s figure.

Note: Other key data in the week including the retail sales, ADP and ISM Manufacturing figures may offer key insight into the health of the US economy.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs data may boost bets around the Fed hiking rates.
A weaker-than-expected figure could cool bets around Fed hikes.

Note: Traders are currently pricing a 22% chance that the Fed will hike rates by June 2026.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain in a bearish channel on the daily charts but have been consolidating over the past few days. Fundamentals point so further downside but technicals suggest that prices are heavily oversold.

Should $4300 prove reliable support, prices may rebound back toward $4600 and higher.
Weakness below $4300 could take prices toward $4100.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Mar

The Bank of Mexico unexpectedly cut the interest rate. The US natural gas prices rose to 3 dollars per MMBtu

By JustMarkets

Yesterday, US stock markets were hit by a wave of sell‑offs, completely erasing the previous day’s optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.01%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.74%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 2.38%. Donald Trump effectively disavowed reports of a peace agreement being prepared, stating during a cabinet meeting that the United States does not intend to make concessions to Tehran. This decision, combined with the resumption of US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, brought back fears of a prolonged war and stagflation. Rising US Treasury yields across the curve triggered a massive investor exodus from the high‑tech and artificial‑intelligence sectors.

On Thursday, the CAD reached its lowest level in the past two months. Despite WTI oil prices holding above 92 dollars per barrel due to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the commodity linkage of the Canadian currency could not offset the powerful rally of the US dollar. Investors are disappointed by the failure of diplomatic efforts.

The MXN weakened to 17.92 per US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of the month. The main blow to the currency came from the unexpected decision of the Bank of Mexico to resume the easing cycle: the regulator cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. The decision split the board (votes were 3 to 2) and drew criticism from experts, as it was made amid a sharp acceleration of inflation, which jumped to 4.63% in mid‑March (compared to 4.02% in February).

On Thursday, European indices declined. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.22% lower.

The Swiss franc weakened to 0.794 per US dollar, marking its lowest level since January. Despite its traditional status as a “safe haven,” the franc lost ground to the US dollar, which became the main beneficiary of the new wave of market fear. Additional pressure on the franc came from a “verbal intervention” by the SNB. Chairman Martin Schlegel confirmed that the bank is ready to actively sell francs on the market to prevent excessive strengthening, which harms Swiss exporters.

The US natural gas prices rose to 2.99 dollars per MMBtu, approaching the psychological level of 3 dollars. The driver of the increase was the weekly report from the EIA, which recorded a deeper‑than‑expected drawdown in inventories: 54 billion cubic feet were withdrawn from storage versus the expectation of a 44‑billion draw. This figure sharply contrasts with last year, when 33 billion cubic feet were injected during the same period, and with the five‑year average draw of 21 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets also rose mostly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.10%.
The Australian dollar on Friday showed negative dynamics, falling to a two‑month low of around 0.687 US dollars amid growing anxiety over a prolonged energy crisis. At the same time, the rapid rise in fuel prices is creating serious risks for the domestic economy, provoking increased inflationary pressure and forcing households to cut spending. Analysts suggest that if high energy prices persist, the consumer price index could jump to 5% as early as the second quarter of this year.

Offshore yuan quotes (CNY) stabilized around 6.91 per US dollar, holding near their lowest levels in the past three weeks due to persistent investor pessimism caused by contradictory signals from the Middle East. However, the rapid decline of the Chinese currency was limited by the release of encouraging domestic statistics. China’s industrial sector showed an impressive surge at the start of 2026, with total corporate profits for the first two months rising more than 15% year‑on‑year, exceeding one trillion yuan. This dynamic indicates a strong economic recovery after last year’s stagnation.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,477.16 −114.74 (−1.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,960.11 −469.38 (−1.01%)

DAX (DE40) 22,612.97 −344.11 (−1.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,972.17 −134.67 (−1.33%)

USD Index 99.93 +0.33% (+0.33%)

News feed for: 2026.03.27

UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – GBP (MED)
Mexico Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2) – MXN (MED)
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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