InvestMacro

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (16,375 contracts) with Lean Hogs (9,080 contracts), Wheat (7,860 contracts), Coffee (6,081 contracts) and Cocoa (1,237 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-16,089 contracts), Sugar (-11,767 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,085 contracts), Corn (-8,855 contracts), Soybean Oil (-6,775 contracts) and Soybeans (-437 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (100 percent) and Lean Hogs (73 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cotton (63 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (9 percent), Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (28.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (33.1 percent)
Coffee (100.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (11.6 percent)
Live Cattle (31.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (65.1 percent)
Cotton (63.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.5 percent)
Cocoa (45.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.3 percent)
Wheat (31.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (25.7 percent)

Coffee & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (18 percent), Soybean Oil (18 percent) and Soybeans (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-18 percent), Wheat (-11 percent) and Cocoa (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (5.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.6 percent)
Sugar (0.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (9.3 percent)
Coffee (21.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.6 percent)
Soybeans (7.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.9 percent)
Live Cattle (-18.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-2.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (21.9 percent)
Cotton (-22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.8 percent)
Cocoa (-6.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-14.7 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -190,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	43.5	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	31.0	10.8
– Net Position:	-190,191	195,882	-5,691
– Gross Longs:	278,917	677,996	162,698
– Gross Shorts:	469,108	482,114	168,389
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	88.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-7.0	16.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 105,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	52.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	66.2	8.1
– Net Position:	105,694	-112,202	6,508
– Gross Longs:	197,840	439,653	73,784
– Gross Shorts:	92,146	551,855	67,276
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	75.0	11.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.4	-1.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	34.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	65.5	2.8
– Net Position:	73,563	-76,957	3,394
– Gross Longs:	95,936	84,448	10,331
– Gross Shorts:	22,373	161,405	6,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-24.2	36.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -158,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	58.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	38.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-158,477	165,652	-7,175
– Gross Longs:	90,965	484,852	56,884
– Gross Shorts:	249,442	319,200	64,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	90.9	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-8.2	11.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	47.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	46.4	4.8
– Net Position:	-10,632	8,894	1,738
– Gross Longs:	112,246	277,288	29,366
– Gross Shorts:	122,878	268,394	27,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.1	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-16.1	0.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	47.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	46.6	6.6
– Net Position:	-22,062	2,946	19,116
– Gross Longs:	90,980	223,332	50,302
– Gross Shorts:	113,042	220,386	31,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	78.9	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-21.1	38.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 48,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	36.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	51.7	12.3
– Net Position:	48,971	-42,479	-6,492
– Gross Longs:	100,435	103,152	28,228
– Gross Shorts:	51,464	145,631	34,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	70.8	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.4	22.0	-5.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 52,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,080 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	33.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	46.9	10.2
– Net Position:	52,215	-43,955	-8,260
– Gross Longs:	128,394	104,697	24,100
– Gross Shorts:	76,179	148,652	32,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	29.0	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-17.2	-17.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.4	37.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.8	3.7
– Net Position:	72,676	-79,153	6,477
– Gross Longs:	106,200	91,585	15,457
– Gross Shorts:	33,524	170,738	8,980
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	36.7	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	22.9	-24.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	34.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.0	4.9
– Net Position:	34,908	-41,018	6,110
– Gross Longs:	58,112	56,707	14,165
– Gross Shorts:	23,204	97,725	8,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	50.9	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	5.9	3.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -52,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	34.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	21.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-52,397	53,124	-727
– Gross Longs:	119,333	137,049	31,819
– Gross Shorts:	171,730	83,925	32,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	66.2	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	9.2	13.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (19,009 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (15,208 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (12,738 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (588 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (366 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-5,442 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,699 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (81 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (66 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (81.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (87.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (50.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (31.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (65.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (69.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (52.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (56.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (57.7 percent)

Nikkei 225 & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (24 percent), the VIX (10 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (-12.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (24.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (20.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-4.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-47.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (9.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (23.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -31,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	42.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	32.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-31,322	37,550	-6,228
– Gross Longs:	78,019	158,142	25,657
– Gross Shorts:	109,341	120,592	31,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	20.7	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-5.9	-20.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -62,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	70.7	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	72.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-62,914	-41,924	104,838
– Gross Longs:	285,690	1,478,906	283,113
– Gross Shorts:	348,604	1,520,830	178,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	34.1	78.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.1	-25.3	8.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	51.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	71.0	13.8
– Net Position:	16,961	-18,398	1,437
– Gross Longs:	28,859	47,292	14,234
– Gross Shorts:	11,898	65,690	12,797
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.9	11.5	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	5.2	-11.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	56.5	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	62.1	13.7
– Net Position:	7,543	-14,503	6,960
– Gross Longs:	65,942	147,110	42,695
– Gross Shorts:	58,399	161,613	35,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	36.6	93.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	3.5	-1.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	73.9	4.5
– Net Position:	-27,615	17,004	10,611
– Gross Longs:	67,862	363,610	31,743
– Gross Shorts:	95,477	346,606	21,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	31.4	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	5.8	1.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.0	68.8	28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	70.8	14.6
– Net Position:	-1,918	-323	2,241
– Gross Longs:	491	11,359	4,657
– Gross Shorts:	2,409	11,682	2,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	31.3	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.5	-22.2	2.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	88.6	1.4
– Net Position:	-10,104	4,577	5,527
– Gross Longs:	31,548	389,700	11,511
– Gross Shorts:	41,652	385,123	5,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	41.8	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-7.6	4.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Peso & Coffee lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,212 net contracts this week with a slight rise of 65 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 22.5 this week. The speculator position registered 139,691 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,961 contracts in speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 21.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 73,563 net contracts this week with a gain of 6,081 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Gasoline

The Gasoline speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 99.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 41.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 83,347 net contracts this week with a small dip of -376 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.3 this week.

The speculator position was -1,271 net contracts this week with a decline of -557 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -162,151 net contracts this week with a sharp drop by -18,921 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -43.7 this week. The speculator position was -31,764 net contracts this week with a decrease by -9,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,142 net contracts this week with a rise by 754 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 8.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.3 this week. The speculator position was -158,477 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -437 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 9.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.3 this week. The speculator position was -190,191 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

12 Apr

The backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion in business is in full force − but myths obscure the real value of DEI

By Adia Harvey Wingfield, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis

Few ideas in business are as misunderstood as DEI.

While opposition to DEI – diversity, equity and inclusion – has a long history, it has picked up steam recently.

In 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, detractors claimed that the bank’s focus on DEI was responsible – rather than the bank overinvesting in bonds that suddenly lost much of their value.

Not long afterward, when a wall panel detached from an Alaska Airlines flight at 16,000 feet, opponents claimed without evidence that DEI’s corrosive effects were to blame.

More recently, when a cargo ship lost power and slammed into Baltimore’s Key Bridge, critics suggested that DEI was somehow at fault.

In the face of these attacks, many company leaders are troublingly silent about their commitment to DEI. I believe this is a mistake. It allows misrepresentations to take root, and it reinforces the exclusion and marginalization many workers of color already experience.

As a sociologist who focuses on race, gender and work, I believe this is a pivotal moment for companies to reinforce their commitment to DEI.

A history of DEI

For starters, it’s useful to take stock of how American companies moved to DEI in the first place, and how diversity practices are typically structured.

For the overwhelming majority of U.S. history, workers who weren’t white men weren’t just legally banned from leadership roles; they could be barred from holding any role in an organization.

The formal exclusion of women of all races and men of color didn’t become illegal until the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. That means that for nearly 200 years after the country’s founding, white men had virtually unrestricted and exclusive access to the levels of power in all organizations.

The objective, meritocratic past that DEI critics imagine is thus a myth. The centuries-long, systematic exclusion of white women and people of color gives lie to the idea that jobs have historically gone only to the most qualified.

After the Civil Rights Act, companies moved to address the new reality that the racial and gender discrimination that had been practiced with impunity for generations was now illegal. Affirmative action policies were one way organizations sought to address past and ongoing discrimination, and many companies, at least for a time, sought to close racial and gender disparities.

But by the 1980s, backlash to these goals was ascendant. Legal decisions such as the Supreme Court’s 1978 Bakke ruling allowed organizations to consider race as one of many factors when they evaluated applicants but specifically outlawed the use of quotas. Companies could thus consider race as part of a package but, contrary to popular opinion, could not hire candidates simply because they were Black (or from another marginalized group).

They could, however, consider diversity as a compelling interest that justified using race as one of a variety of factors in making decisions about hiring. A company that had no Black workers on its entire staff could thus seek to diversify, taking race into account alongside experience, qualifications, education and other criteria when considering a candidate.

What this hypothetical company could not do is simply hire a Black worker based exclusively on their race.

Diversity initiatives today

In the wake of ongoing backlash, most companies today have moved even further from trying to alleviate ongoing racial and gender disparities. Instead, they embrace the form of DEI that’s under harsh criticism today.

But today’s DEI doesn’t necessarily entail a focus on hiring or promoting more Black workers. It doesn’t even always focus on race. Instead, many DEI managers have sought to focus their efforts more broadly on diversity of thought, region or opinion as a way to avoid the kind of pushback they’re encountering today.

Additionally, companies often rely heavily on DEI practices such as mandatory diversity training or brief workshops with external consultants that actually depress the numbers of Black workers – and other workers of color – in leadership roles.

Today’s critics cast DEI as unfairly advantaging unqualified Black workers, but the reality is that companies stopped focusing on closing racial disparities long ago.

The numbers bear this out. While white men constitute only 30% of the U.S. population, as of 2017 they made up 80% of members of Congress, 85% of corporate executive officers, 95% of Fortune 500 CEOs and 97% of heads of venture capital firms.

The business case for diversity

Clearly, DEI is not reshaping America’s most powerful institutions in a way that places significant numbers of Black workers in leadership roles.

Instead, researchers know that obstacles such as hiring discrimination, wage inequality, hostile organizational cultures and blocked routes to advancement still persist for highly qualified, skilled and motivated Black workers.

The irony is that the data shows very clearly that diversity is correlated with clear benefits to organizations. Companies with more racial and gender diversity among managers boast more profitability and more innovation than those without. They have advantages in recruitment, employee satisfaction and responding to market changes and consumer needs.

Organizations that are genuinely committed to DEI aren’t losing sight of the big picture; rather, they’re investing in their long-term financial success.

For purely self-interested reasons, then, companies should be offering a full-throated defense of DEI. Instead, they’ve been in retreat.

For example, law firms are walking back programs designed to attract lawyers of color, even though the legal profession is overwhelmingly made up of white workers. Similarly, efforts to increase venture capital funding to Black women are under attack, even though in 2018 less than 1% of a total of US$130 billion raised went to firms headed by women of color. And major tech companies are shifting resources away from post-2020 investments in DEI, even though Black workers remain significantly underrepresented in that industry as well.

DEI practices that work

It doesn’t have to be this way. Companies can still rely on evidence-based DEI practices that show results. One approach involves establishing mentoring programs that are open to everyone. Another is cross-training workers so they can build their skills in various parts of a company while at the same time broadening their networks. And a third tack includes investing in flexible, family-friendly workplace policies that send a message to workers that they and their needs matter.

None of these programs are reserved for members of any particular racial group, so they’re within the bounds of the law. The beauty of this approach is that even though these initiatives are race-neutral, research indicates they benefit workers of color more than mandating annual diversity training.

In addition to using measures like these that work, I believe it’s important for corporate leaders to stand up for DEI precisely because it’s under threat.

Some are doing this already. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase recently described himself as a “full-throated, red-blooded, patriotic, unwoke, capitalist CEO” who still plans to maintain the bank’s commitment to DEI, particularly when it comes to the approaches that are shown to net results. The celebrity businessman Mark Cuban has been similarly outspoken in support of DEI, unequivocally describing it as “good for business.”

Given that research shows workforce diversity helps companies boost profits, it’s surprising to me that more leaders don’t take this approach. The alternative is letting a false narrative that imperils their growth go unchallenged.

About the Author:

Adia Harvey Wingfield, Professor of Sociology, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

12 Apr

Singapore’s central bank (MAS) maintained its monetary policy settings. The ECB hinted at a rate cut soon

By JustMarkets

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.01%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.68% yesterday. Strength in technology stocks led the overall market higher on Thursday. Apple (AAPL) climbed more than 4% after it said it plans to upgrade its entire line of Mac computers with its proprietary processors designed for artificial intelligence. In addition, shares of chip companies rose Thursday on speculation that upcoming first-quarter earnings results will show strong demand for microchips.

The US Producer Price Index (displays the inflation rate between factories) for March rose by 0.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y in the US, slightly weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.2% y/y. However, the core PPI (excluding food and energy) accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y in February, slightly stronger than expectations of 2.3% y/y and the largest increase in 7 months. US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to a 5-week low of 211,000, indicating a strengthening labor market versus expectations of 215,000. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed has made tremendous progress in balancing inflation and employment, but there is no need to lower interest rates soon. FRB Richmond President Barkin said the Fed still has some work to do to contain price pressures and could take its time in lowering interest rates. FRB Boston President Collins added that recent data has eased concerns about adjusting interest rates, although she still expects rate cuts to begin later this year.

Corporate earnings season for the first quarter begins today with results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). The consensus expects first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies to rise an average of 3.8% quarter over quarter.

Equity markets in Europe declined on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.79% yesterday, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.27% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.47% on Thursday.

The European Central Bank left key interest rates unchanged and hinted at the possibility of a rate cut if upcoming forecasts indicate inflationary pressures are easing. Lagarde’s speech was soft and had a dovish bias. Still, the policymaker emphasized that the ECB is not committing to a specific rate trajectory and that future decisions will be data-driven.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $86 a barrel on Friday, recovering most of the previous session’s losses, as the prospect of a wider conflict in the Middle East continued to heighten fears of further supply disruptions. Israel is reportedly preparing for a direct attack from Iran in the next 24-48 hours, as Tehran has previously pledged to retaliate to an alleged Israeli attack on its embassy in Syria. The latest rounds of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have also failed, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying they will continue the war in Gaza.

Natural gas prices for May fell sharply on Thursday due to a larger-than-expected 24 Bcf increase in EIA natural gas inventories last week, which exceeded expectations of 15 Bcf. As of March 29, the US natural gas inventories were 38.9% above the 5-year seasonal average, indicating an oversupply of natural gas.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.26% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.44%.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its April 2024 monetary policy rate target, extending the pause for the fourth straight month amid heightened cost pressures. The Authority said it will maintain the prevailing pace of appreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate of the Singapore dollar. The central bank said it expects the country’s GDP growth to be 1% to 3% this year, supported by a recovery in the manufacturing and financial sectors and normalization in domestic-oriented sectors. Meanwhile, MAS forecasts that the preferred core inflation rate will remain high in the coming quarters before declining in Q4 2024 and 2025. In January-February, core inflation averaged 3.4% on an annualized basis

At its April meeting, the Bank of Korea kept the benchmark rate at 3.5%, as expected. It was the tenth consecutive meeting to keep borrowing costs unchanged, with the central bank emphasizing the need for further progress on price stability before considering monetary easing. Inflation was 3.1% in March, mainly driven by higher agricultural and global oil prices, while core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.6% in February.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,199.06 +38.42 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,459.08 −2.43 (−0.01%)

DAX (DE40) 18,097.30 −142.82 (−0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,923.80 −37.41 (−0.47%)

USD Index 105.27 +0.02 (+0.02%)

Important events today:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Apr

Week Ahead: Time for stock index “slowpokes” to catch up?

By ForexTime

UK100 now less than 0.2% away from all-time peak!
3 stock index “laggards” could find reasons to catch up next week
MONDAY: US30 (+2% ytd) needs a boost from Goldman Sachs earnings
TUESDAY: CN50 (+3.6% ytd) bulls require rosier Chinese economic data
WEDNESDAY: UK100 (+3.7% ytd) needs slowing CPI to stay above 8k

REMINDER: 11 of FXTM’s 18 stock indices have reached their respective record highs so far in 2024.

However, we could see that tally reach 12 very soon (hint: the “answer” lies towards the end of this article).

In assessing the various stock indexes around the world, obviously not all are created equal.

Broadly speaking, there are the outperformers:

US500: up 9% year-to-date
EU50: +10.9%
TWN: +11.9%
NETH25: +13.4%
JAP225: +18.1%

At the other end of the spectrum, there are others that are clearly lagging behind their peers, with more conservative year-to-date gains:

US30: +2%
UK100: +3.4%
CN50: +3.6%

Over the coming week, these 3 events could either boost, or further dampen, the above-listed “laggards”:

1) US30 index: Goldman Sachs earnings (Monday, April 15th)

Wall Street banking giant, Goldman Sachs, is the 3rd-largest member of the US30 stock index.

NOTE: The US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index a.k.a. the Dow

Goldman Sachs alone accounts for 6.8% of the Dow!

And at the time of writing, markets predict that Goldman Sachs’s share prices could move 3.4%, either up or down, once US stock markets reopen after the bank has released its earnings.

Hence, the market’s reaction to Goldman Sachs’s earnings could have a large impact on the US30’s performance.

Better-than-expected earnings for Goldman Sachs could lift the US30 towards its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Worse-than-expected earnings for Goldman Sachs could sink the US30 towards its 100-day SMA, where also lies the psychologically-important 38,000 line.

2) CN50 index: China’s key economic data releases (Tuesday, April 16th)

The world’s second-largest economy is due to release its 1Q GDP data, alongside last month’s performance for industrial production, retail sales, retail sales, and property investment.

Essentially, this coming Tuesday …

Investors and traders are about to be hit with a lot of information on how the Chinese economy is faring right now.

Note that the CN50 index’s performance is very much tied to the overall health of the Chinese economy.

After all, stocks within the financial, consumer staples, and industrials sectors combine to account for two-thirds (67.8%) of the entire CN50 index.

Hence, no surprise that the CN50 has lagged, given the economic challenges that China’s currently facing.

If Tuesday’s data releases come in better-than-expected, this could send CN50 back above the psychologically-important 12,000 mark and past its 200-day SMA.
However, evidence of a still-sluggish Chinese economy may keep the CN50 index subdued below its 50-day SMA, and potentially on a path towards that end-Feb/early-March low of 11,686.3.

3) UK100 index: UK March consumer price index (Wednesday, April 17th)

NOTE: The consumer price index (CPI) measures inflation in an economy.

Economists predict that the March UK CPI rose by:

2.9% year-on-year (March 2024 vs. March 2023)
0.4% month-on-month (March 2024 vs. February 2024)

Recall that the UK100 index has an inverse relationship with the British Pound (GBP).

NOTE: When GBP goes up, the UK100 tends to fall, and vice versa.

This inverse relationship has been particularly evident over the past month:

The primary reason for the price moves in the above chart (GBPUSD vs. UK100) is because …

Markets are now betting that the Bank of England’s (BOE) interest rate CUTS will be brought forward.

Such revised expectations have dragged GBPUSD to its year-to-date low closer to 1.2500, while the UK100 has made multiple breaches of the psychologically-important 8,000 mark.

Higher-than-expected CPI figures, that force the BOE to delay its rate cuts, could strengthen Sterling and drag the UK100 back below the 8k mark.
Lower-than-expected CPI figures, that allow the BOE to bring forward its rate cuts, could weaken GBP and help keep the UK100 above 8,000.

At the time of writing (Friday, April 12th) …

The UK100 index is less than 0.2% below its all-time intraday high of 8051.7, registered on February 16th, 2023.

Australian dollar struggles amid robust US economic data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, hovering around 0.6528 on Friday. Earlier this week, the Australian dollar faced significant challenges, with a sharp decline against the USD. Efforts to stabilise the exchange rate have seen limited success thus far.

The stronger-than-expected economic data from the US has dampened hopes for extensive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The capital market currently anticipates only a 40-basis point reduction, a downgrade from the 60-75 basis points expected at the start of the week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is considering initiating its monetary easing policies towards the end of 2024. However, Australia’s robust employment market and persistent consumer inflation complicate these plans. Recent data indicates that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% in February, the lowest since September 2023, while inflation remained steady at 3.4% for the third consecutive month.

A recent Westpac report highlights the RBA’s need for greater confidence in the inflation outlook before seriously contemplating a rate cut.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD is developing the fifth wave of decline towards 0.6832. The market has recently experienced a decline to 0.6498. A consolidation range is forming above this level today. If the pair exits this range upward, a corrective move to 0.6570 may occur. Conversely, a downward exit could lead to the continuation of the downward wave towards 0.6404. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line above zero but trending downwards sharply.

The H1 chart shows a consolidation around 0.6523. An upward breakout could lead to a correction towards 0.6570. A downward move from the range could initiate a further decline to 0.6420, potentially extending to 0.6404. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 20, suggests a possible rise to 50, indicating potential short-term corrections within a broader downward trend.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Apr

The Bank of Canada maintained its monetary policy settings. The FOMC minutes showed that policymakers will not be in a hurry to cut rates

By JustMarkets

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.09%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.95%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative 0.84%. A sharp rise in bond yields pressured equities yesterday after the March US Consumer Price Index exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month, reinforcing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut interest rates. The annualized US inflation rate was 3.5% in March 2024, the highest since September, up from 3.2% in February and forecasts of 3.4%. In addition, core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.4% m/m to 3.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y. Fed swap prices are now pricing in only a 50 bps rate cut this year, less than the Fed’s recent 75 bps dot plot. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 3% at the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and just 21% (vs. 70% last week) at the next meeting on June 12.

Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed that the Federal Reserve does not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%. The central bank still closely monitors inflation risks but expects to see some unevenness in monthly inflation readings as inflation returns to target. The so-called dot plot showed policymakers still plan to cut interest rates three times this year, matching quarterly forecasts made in December.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its key rate at 5%, as expected, and refrained from hinting at the start of rate cuts because of lingering upside risks to inflation. The central bank noted that price pressures have eased across a wide range of goods and services since the last meeting but added that an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop and higher-than-expected commodity prices, including oil, prevent disinflation from converging more smoothly. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem added that while recent data indicate some progress in containing core inflation, it is still insufficient to justify monetary easing with confidence. As such, the Bank of Canada expects inflation to remain around 3% in the first half of this year and not reach the 2% target until 2025.

Equity markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.05%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.38%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.33% on Wednesday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. Market participants expect the ECB to leave the key rate unchanged at 4.5%. After last month’s meeting, the Eurozone economy has gained momentum but is still close to recession. Therefore, the ECB will likely want to get an update on inflation and labor market data before embarking on full-blown easing. Most of the central bank’s recent statements hint that a key rate cut in June is a real possibility. Therefore, given current market speculation, there is a risk that Lagarde’s statement and press conference will be less dovish than financial markets expect. In that case, the euro could get a boost to growth. But if Lagarde’s statement is confidently dovish with a hint of a real rate cut in June, the euro will continue to decline.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $85.7 a barrel on Wednesday, breaking a two-day decline, as the market reacted to the news from Gaza. Several important Hamas figures were killed in an Israeli airstrike, which could complicate ceasefire talks. Tensions in the Middle East ran high, with Israel warning OPEC representative Iran that it will attack the Islamic Republic if Tehran strikes Israel, with the US reportedly confident of an imminent strike by Iran or its supporters on Israel. The EIA reported a 5.841 million barrel rise in inventories on Wednesday, beating market expectations for a 2.366 million barrel increase.

Asian markets traded without any unified dynamics. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.48% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.85% overnight and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.31%. Asian equity markets fell on Thursday, following a sharp decline on Wall Street overnight. Investors also priced in data that China’s consumer prices rose less than expected in March, while producer prices fell by the most in four months. Chinese consumer prices were 0.1% y/y in March 2024, compared to market forecasts of 0.4% y/y, after rising to 0.7% in the previous month. China’s lower-than-expected inflation numbers have bolstered bets on further policy easing from the PBoC.

Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on China’s sovereign credit rating to negative from stable while affirming its A+ rating amid growing concerns about the outlook for the country’s public finances. The agency cited large budget deficits and a sharp rise in government debt in recent years as undermining fiscal reserves from a rating perspective.

The Japanese yen hit a new 34-year low. Traders are now expecting currency intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), seeing the 152-153 per dollar exchange rate as a potential catalyst. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki said that the authorities do not rule out any measures against excessive yen movement.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,160.64 −49.27 (-0.95%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,461.51 −422.16 (−1.09%)

DAX (DE40) 18,097.30 +20.61 (+0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,961.21 +26.42 (+0.33%)

USD Index 105.17 +1.03 (+0.99%)

Important events today:

– China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Apr

Target Thursdays: Bitcoin, US400, RUS2000, and EURGBP

By ForexTime

Bitcoin still climbing this CPI week; up over 2%/$1,600 since Sunday
US400 and RUS2000 stock indices showed larger-CPI reactions, as predicted
FXTM Trading Signals: EURGBP reaches all 4 Targets

The monthly US CPI release has come and gone.

The highly-anticipated set of US economic data exceeded market expectations by 0.1 percentage points each:

Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. March 2023 (year-on-year): 3.5%
Higher than the forecasted 3.4%; higher than February’s 3.2% year-on-year figure
Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. February 2024 (month-on-month): 0.4%
Higher than the forecasted 0.3%; higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure
Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 3.8%
Higher than the forecasted 3.7%; matching February’s 3.8% year-on-year figure
Core CPI month-on-month: 0.4%
Higher than the forecasted 0.3%; matching February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure

The higher-than-expected CPI numbers pushed back bets that the Fed can cut US interest rates as soon as June 2024.

As we’d written about extensively, this CPI numbers certainly jolted various asset classes on Wednesday, April 10th.

Now, we look back at a couple of instruments that performed as per outlined in our recently published Daily Market Analysis articles:

1) Bitcoin still rising so far this CPI week

What we wrote:

So far in 2024, cryptos have risen every week that the highly-anticipated US inflation data is released!

(Trade of the Week: Cryptos to rise again this CPI week?; published Monday, April 8th)

What’s happened since?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has risen by over 2% (or about $1600) so far this week since Sunday’s closing price of $69,315.13.

Even though other risk assets (such as stocks) fell after the hotter-than-expected US CPI, Bitcoin managed to rebound after its own initial post-CPI selloff.

If Bitcoin can continue shrugging off the US CPI’s impact and adhere to this trend of posting a weekly advance for each week so far in 2024 that has featured a US CPI announcement, that could translate into further gains for Bitcoin bulls for the rest of this week.

Still, the astute trader would note the stubborn resistance region around $71,400 which has capped Bitcoin’s upside since week of March 25th.

The world’s oldest crypto has to vanquish the $71,400 resistance in order to have another shot at posting a new record high.

2) US400 and RUS2000 indices saw massive post-CPI moves

What we wrote:

“On CPI days, the US400 typically sees a 39% larger-than-average move, which translates into 13 index points higher than average (average: 34 index points).”
“On CPI days, the RUS2000 typically sees a 27.8% larger-than-average move, which translates into 7 index points higher than average (average: 25 index points).”
” … stock markets may be pulled back lower if US inflation is proving stubborn, …”

(“Smaller” US stock indexes, bigger CPI reactions?; published Tuesday, April 9th)

What’s happened since?

US400

This mid-sized US stock index posted a 93.8 index point difference between its highest and lowest traded prices in the 1 hour immediately following the US CPI release.

Those 93.8 index points are almost 3x the average daily intraday difference (highest price – lowest price) of 34 index points over the past 12 months.

RUS2000

This “small” US stock index posted a 86 index point difference between its highest and lowest traded prices in the 1 hour immediately following the US CPI release.

Those 86 index points are MORE THAN TRIPLE the average daily intraday difference (highest price – lowest price) of 25 index points over the past 12 months.

Given that massive post-CPI move downwards for US stock indices, as was expected in light of the hotter-than-expected US inflation data …

This would’ve been a major payoff for those who had “short” positions (bet that prices would go down) on either the US400 or RUS2000 stock indices!

3) FXTM Trading Signals: EURGBP bags over 100 points

Every week day, we publish the FXTM Trading Signals twice daily:

EU session: 6:00AM GMT
US session: 12:30PM GMT

This EURGBP signal, published just today (Thursday EU session), has already reached all 4 Targets!

NOTE: FXTM Trading Signals are available for clients under the MyFXTM portal (published within the Trading Services section)

FXTM Signal: EURGBP M15 – how it started …

FXTM Signal: EURGBP M15 – how it ended …

But wait, there could be more volatility ahead for EURGBP!

The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce its policy decision at 12:15PM GMT later today (Thursday, April 11th)

To be clear, markets roundly expect the ECB to leave its benchmark rates unchanged at its record high of 4%.

However, markets will be keen to find out if the ECB is now more certain about CUTTING its benchmark rates by 25-basis points in June 2024.

Such clues may be derived out of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference due at 12:45PM GMT, which is 30 minutes after the ECB’s policy announcement.

EURGBP: Potential Post-ECB Scenarios

If President Lagarde lends further credence to the thought of a June rate cut by the ECB, that could prompt EURGBP to revisit the 0.8550 level.
However, if President Lagarde unexpectedly pushes back against bets for a June rate cut, that should trigger a greater rebound for EURGBP back above the 0.8570 line.

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

11 Apr

US Dollar strengthens following high inflation data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, stabilising around 1.0745 by Thursday. This movement follows the US releasing inflation data that exceeded expectations, underscoring the ongoing battle against inflation. The March consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, matching February’s rise but surpassing the anticipated 0.3%. The annual inflation rate intensified to 3.5% from 3.2%, signalling persistent inflationary pressures.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also climbed by 0.4% in March, maintaining a year-on-year core 3.8% core CPI. Such elevated inflation levels suggest that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, a sentiment reflected in the CME’s FedWatch tool. The likelihood of a rate reduction in June sharply declined to 18% post-CPI announcement, representing a significant drop from the 50% probability seen before the data release. Expectations now lean towards September for potential Federal Reserve actions.

Market predictions have adjusted to foresee a 43-45 basis point rate cut by the Fed within this year, a sharp decline from the 75 basis points expected at the week’s start and the 150 basis points anticipated at the year’s beginning. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting further solidified concerns, revealing policymakers’ dissatisfaction with inflation trends even before the latest price statistics.

This series of developments has bolstered the US dollar’s strength in the currency market.

EUR/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart analysis for EUR/USD shows a correction to 1.0883, followed by a downturn to 1.0728 on the back of the recent news. A consolidation range has currently formed around this level, with a potential rise to 1.0784. A downward breakout from this range could lead to a decrease towards 1.0700. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero and trending downward, supports this potential scenario.

On the H1 chart, the downward trend towards 1.0700 continues, with a possible correction to 1.0780 expected. This may be followed by a further drop to 1.0680, representing an initial phase of a broader downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80, anticipates a continued decline towards 20, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD pair.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

Coffee & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

Nikkei 225 & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

Coffee

Gasoline

Steel

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

Swiss Franc

US Dollar Index

Soybeans

Corn

A history of DEI

Diversity initiatives today

The business case for diversity

DEI practices that work

REMINDER: 11 of FXTM’s 18 stock indices have reached their respective record highs so far in 2024.

In assessing the various stock indexes around the world, obviously not all are created equal.

Over the coming week, these 3 events could either boost, or further dampen, the above-listed “laggards”:

1) US30 index: Goldman Sachs earnings (Monday, April 15th)

NOTE: The US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index a.k.a. the Dow

Goldman Sachs alone accounts for 6.8% of the Dow!

2) CN50 index: China’s key economic data releases (Tuesday, April 16th)

Investors and traders are about to be hit with a lot of information on how the Chinese economy is faring right now.

3) UK100 index: UK March consumer price index (Wednesday, April 17th)

NOTE: The consumer price index (CPI) measures inflation in an economy.

NOTE: When GBP goes up, the UK100 tends to fall, and vice versa.

Markets are now betting that the Bank of England’s (BOE) interest rate CUTS will be brought forward.

The UK100 index is less than 0.2% below its all-time intraday high of 8051.7, registered on February 16th, 2023.

READ MORE: UK100 index teases record high (April 2nd, 2024)

Then we’d see 12 of FXTM’s stock indices having notched fresh record highs so far this year!

The monthly US CPI release has come and gone.

The higher-than-expected CPI numbers pushed back bets that the Fed can cut US interest rates as soon as June 2024.