InvestMacro

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3M & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as eight out of the nine bond markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with an increase in speculator bets this week was the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 1-Month) with a gain of 25,936 contracts.

Leading the declines for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (-82,906 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-79,045 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-56,309 contracts), and the Fed Funds (-48,918 contracts),the 2-Year Bonds (-35,717 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-24,156 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-11,645 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-1,943 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (75 percent) and the Fed Funds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (21 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (70.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (29.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (20.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (24.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (75.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (60.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (65.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (44.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (48.3 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (44 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-32 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-22 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-7 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (43.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (54.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-22.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-0.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-31.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-34.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -315,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -82,906 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	58.1	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	55.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-315,283	320,426	-5,143
– Gross Longs:	1,553,395	5,975,693	37,317
– Gross Shorts:	1,868,678	5,655,267	42,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	56.2	85.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	32.0	-0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	63.0	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	63.5	2.2
– Net Position:	10,346	-8,820	-1,526
– Gross Longs:	342,285	1,170,635	38,611
– Gross Shorts:	331,939	1,179,455	40,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	27.8	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-42.7	-8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,016,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -35,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -980,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	80.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	58.7	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,016,443	878,770	137,673
– Gross Longs:	487,267	3,289,154	265,541
– Gross Shorts:	1,503,710	2,410,384	127,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	67.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	6.6	9.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,146,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -56,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,090,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	83.7	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	66.2	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,146,598	1,051,309	95,289
– Gross Longs:	434,860	5,032,454	422,885
– Gross Shorts:	1,581,458	3,981,145	327,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.6	78.2	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-1.4	1.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -432,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -79,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -353,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.3	9.7
– Net Position:	-432,965	457,279	-24,314
– Gross Longs:	451,643	3,428,368	405,462
– Gross Shorts:	884,608	2,971,089	429,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	53.5	68.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-8.8	-15.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -263,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -24,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	77.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	60.8	14.0
– Net Position:	-263,683	349,548	-85,865
– Gross Longs:	224,117	1,605,733	202,627
– Gross Shorts:	487,800	1,256,185	288,492
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	100.0	63.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	28.4	-3.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	70.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	70.5	10.5
– Net Position:	-23,114	-4,607	27,721
– Gross Longs:	258,380	1,105,551	192,864
– Gross Shorts:	281,494	1,110,158	165,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.4	13.0	68.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	6.2	-10.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -310,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	61.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-310,145	309,147	998
– Gross Longs:	139,075	1,318,512	176,104
– Gross Shorts:	449,220	1,009,365	175,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	47.8	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	11.1	-15.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

04 May

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat, Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as only three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (18,935 contracts) with Soybean Meal (17,676 contracts) and Corn (16,744 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-25,101 contracts), Cotton (-9,637 contracts), Soybeans (-7,773 contracts), Sugar (-4,796 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,678 contracts), Live Cattle (-3,750 contracts), Coffee (-3,324 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,432 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (93 percent) and Lean Hogs (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Sugar (5 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and the Corn (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (13.5 percent)
Sugar (5.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.9 percent)
Coffee (92.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.0 percent)
Soybeans (7.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (15.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (40.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (30.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (72.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (76.2 percent)
Cotton (23.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (30.4 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.1 percent)
Wheat (50.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.4 percent)

Soybean Meal & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (32 percent) and Wheat (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (18 percent), Lean Hogs (15 percent) and Corn (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-55 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-32 percent) and Soybean Oil (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.1 percent)
Soybeans (1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-22.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (31.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (29.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-32.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-27.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (20.2 percent)
Cotton (-54.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-51.7 percent)
Cocoa (-18.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-16.5 percent)
Wheat (21.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -143,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	44.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	32.9	10.7
– Net Position:	-143,424	157,105	-13,681
– Gross Longs:	284,015	624,235	138,688
– Gross Shorts:	427,439	467,130	152,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	83.4	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-3.5	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	55.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	58.8	8.9
– Net Position:	40,305	-29,820	-10,485
– Gross Longs:	199,571	460,096	63,606
– Gross Shorts:	159,266	489,916	74,091
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	100.0	2.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	20.8	-21.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	34.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	65.4	2.0
– Net Position:	68,590	-72,156	3,566
– Gross Longs:	93,006	81,941	8,361
– Gross Shorts:	24,416	154,097	4,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	6.5	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-20.0	29.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -162,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	61.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	38.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-162,343	168,676	-6,333
– Gross Longs:	92,100	447,805	52,018
– Gross Shorts:	254,443	279,129	58,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	91.4	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.7	17.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -56,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	52.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	42.7	5.5
– Net Position:	-56,442	55,356	1,086
– Gross Longs:	109,597	290,371	31,192
– Gross Shorts:	166,039	235,015	30,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	21.3	-10.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 32,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	43.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	54.5	5.9
– Net Position:	32,119	-49,108	16,989
– Gross Longs:	130,740	191,673	43,016
– Gross Shorts:	98,621	240,781	26,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	58.3	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.9	-31.5	7.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 43,803 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	49.2	11.6
– Net Position:	43,803	-38,088	-5,715
– Gross Longs:	99,665	97,729	26,257
– Gross Shorts:	55,862	135,817	31,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	76.2	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	33.8	12.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.9	34.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	48.6	10.4
– Net Position:	51,938	-43,257	-8,681
– Gross Longs:	116,668	102,259	22,574
– Gross Shorts:	64,730	145,516	31,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	29.6	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-12.8	-18.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 19,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	43.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	52.8	6.5
– Net Position:	19,222	-18,831	-391
– Gross Longs:	71,065	89,336	12,824
– Gross Shorts:	51,843	108,167	13,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.2	77.6	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-54.5	55.4	-56.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	33.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	54.8	4.1
– Net Position:	27,152	-32,122	4,970
– Gross Longs:	46,931	51,146	11,182
– Gross Shorts:	19,779	83,268	6,212
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	59.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	19.3	-6.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 18,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,391 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	36.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	27.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-24,456	32,562	-8,106
– Gross Longs:	120,889	132,764	26,535
– Gross Shorts:	145,345	100,202	34,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	51.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-18.8	-27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

04 May

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower speculator net contract positions.

Leading the declines for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (-24,545 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,498 contracts), the VIX (-4,433 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,189 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-3,353 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,654 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-407 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (91 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (71 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (69 percent) and Nikkei 225 (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (90.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (95.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (71.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (68.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (43.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (48.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (56.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (59.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (68.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (54.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (62.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (24 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-19 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (24.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (33.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (35.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (45.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-28.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-19.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-12.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (10.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (17.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	40.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	33.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-22,433	28,429	-5,996
– Gross Longs:	91,655	152,812	26,276
– Gross Shorts:	114,088	124,383	32,272
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.8	10.7	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-22.3	-10.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -24,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.4	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	76.9	8.6
– Net Position:	43,133	-150,593	107,460
– Gross Longs:	272,813	1,392,147	279,080
– Gross Shorts:	229,680	1,542,740	171,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	19.1	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.4	-36.0	9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	63.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	70.7	12.8
– Net Position:	5,198	-6,639	1,441
– Gross Longs:	17,883	56,959	12,944
– Gross Shorts:	12,685	63,598	11,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	28.6	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	26.1	-3.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	55.1	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	60.8	13.0
– Net Position:	2,772	-14,557	11,785
– Gross Longs:	60,312	139,475	44,588
– Gross Shorts:	57,540	154,032	32,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	36.5	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	3.3	13.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	77.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	70.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-40,289	35,892	4,397
– Gross Longs:	70,255	372,284	26,725
– Gross Shorts:	110,544	336,392	22,328
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	43.5	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.0	19.6	-12.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,384 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	71.2	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	65.6	16.1
– Net Position:	-1,791	909	882
– Gross Longs:	1,161	11,519	3,490
– Gross Shorts:	2,952	10,610	2,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	36.2	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	8.1	-13.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	90.4	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	88.9	1.6
– Net Position:	-11,145	5,989	5,156
– Gross Longs:	27,229	384,166	12,135
– Gross Shorts:	38,374	378,177	6,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	43.2	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	4.7	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

03 May

Is Intel (INTC) a Buy, Sell, or Hold Amidst Tough Competition?

By Ino.com

Intel Corporation (INTC), a prominent semiconductor company, is currently navigating a challenging phase characterized by a dwindling financial outlook and difficulties sustaining competitiveness within the semiconductor industry. Intel stands behind many tech stocks in the S&P 500 this year, while rival chipmaker NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) emerges as the third-best performer in the index.

Now, we will evaluate the risks and opportunities associated with investing in Intel amidst competitive pressures.

Strategic Initiatives to Keep up With the Fierce Competition

Amid escalating competition in the tech arena, INTC, the foremost producer of processors driving PCs and laptops, has aggressively expanded its presence in the AI domain to remain abreast of its peers.

Last month, the company announced the creation of the world’s largest neuromorphic system, dubbed Hala Point, which is powered by Intel’s Loihi 2 processor. Initially deployed at Sandia National Laboratories, this system supports research for future brain-inspired AI and addresses challenges concerning AI efficiency and sustainability.

On April 9, Intel also unveiled a new AI chip called Gaudi 3, which was intended to compete against NVDA’s dominance in popular graphics processing units. The new chip boasts over twice the power efficiency and can run AI models one-and-a-half times faster than NVDA’s H100 GPU. The company expects more than $500 million in sales from its Gaudi 3 chips in the year’s second half.

In March, Reuters reported that INTC plans to spend $100 billion across four U.S. states to build and expand factories, bolstered by $19.5 billion in federal grants and loans (with an additional $25 billion in tax incentives in sight). CEO Pat Gelsinger envisions transforming vacant land near Columbus, Ohio, into “the largest AI chip manufacturing site globally” by 2027, forming the cornerstone of Intel’s ambitious five-year spending plan.

Such advancements enable the company to stay competitive and meet the growing demand for AI-driven solutions across various industries.

Solid First-Quarter Performance but Shaky Outlook

For the first quarter that ended March 30, 2024, INTC’s net revenue surged 8.6% year-over-year to $12.72 billion, primarily driven by growth in its personal computing, data center, and AI business. However, its revenue from the Foundry unit amounted to $4.40 billion, down about 10% year-over-year.

Intel’s gross margin grew 30.2% from the prior year’s quarter to $5.22 billion. Also, it reported a non-GAAP operating income of $723 million, compared to an operating loss of $294 million in 2023. Further, its non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $759 million and $0.18 versus a net loss and loss per share of $169 million and $0.04, respectively, in the same quarter last year.

The solid financial performance underscores the vital innovation across its client, edge, and data center portfolios, driving double-digit product revenue growth. Total Intel Products chalked up $11.90 billion in revenue for the first quarter of 2024, resulting in a 17% year-over-year increase over the prior year’s period. Its Client Computing Group (CCG) contributed to about 31% of the gains of this unit.

However, the company lowered its outlook for the second quarter of 2024. The company expects its revenue to come between $12.5 billion and $13.5 billion, while its non-GAAP earnings per share is expected to be $0.10.

Following the company’s weak guidance for the ongoing quarter, Intel shares nosedived as much as 13% on Friday morning, overshadowing its first-quarter earnings beat. Also, the stock has plunged nearly 15% over the past six months and more than 39% year-to-date.

Bottom Line

INTC surpassed analyst estimates on the top and bottom lines in the first quarter of 2024, but achieving full recovery appears challenging. The chipmaker provided a weak outlook for the second quarter, validating concerns about its ongoing struggle to capitalize on the AI boom amid competition pressures.

Looking ahead, analysts expect INTC’s revenue to increase marginally year-over-year to $13.09 billion for the quarter ending June 2024. However, the company’s EPS for the current quarter is expected to fall 16.2% from the prior year’s period to $0.11.

For the fiscal year 2024, the consensus revenue and EPS estimates of $56.06 billion and $1.10 indicate increases of 3.4% and 5.2% year-over-year, respectively.

Recently, Goldman Sachs analysts slashed their price target for Intel stock by $5 to $34 per share and reaffirmed a ‘Sell’ rating in light of heightened competition in the artificial intelligence landscape.

Toshiya Hari noted that the company’s weak guidance was due to delayed recovery in traditional server demand, driven by cloud and enterprise customers’ focus on AI infrastructure spending. As a result, it could lead INTC to lose market share to competitors like NVDA and Arm Holdings plc (ARM) in the data center computing market.

Moreover, analysts at Bank of America decreased their price target on the stock from $44 to $40, citing rising costs, slower growth prospects, and intensified competition.

Additionally, INTC’s elevated valuation exacerbates market sensitivity. In terms of forward non-GAAP P/E, the stock trades at 27.58x, 18.9% above the industry average of 23.19x. Furthermore, its forward EV/Sales of 2.93x is 5.7% higher than the industry average of 2.77x. And the stock’s forward EV/EBIT of 31.80x compares to the industry average of 19.07x.

Also, the stock’s trailing-12-month gross profit and EBIT margins of 41.49% and 1.29% are 14.7% and 73.1% lower than the industry averages of 48.64% and 4.80%, respectively. Likewise, its asset turnover ratio of negative 0.29x compares to the industry average of 0.61x.

Given this backdrop, while we wouldn’t recommend investing in INTC now, keeping a close eye on the stock seems prudent.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Is Intel (INTC) a Buy, Sell, or Hold Amidst Tough Competition?

Opinions Stock Market News

03 May

Week Ahead: UK100 set for more record highs?

By ForexTime

UK100 ↑ over 2% in April

Index could see heightened volatility

BoE decision & Q1 GDP in focus

Bullish on D1 but RSI overbought

Key levels of interest at 8200, 8110 & 8023

Even as the clock ticks down to the US jobs report this afternoon (Friday, 3rd May), markets are bracing for more action in the week ahead.

Key central bank decisions, top economic data, and another volley of corporate earnings could present fresh trading opportunities:

Monday, 6th May

CN50: China Caixin services PMI
EU50: Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI
CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech
US500: New York Fed President Williams, Richmond Fed President Barkin speech

Tuesday, 7th May

CNH: China forex reserves
AU200: RBA rate decision
EU50: Eurozone retail sales
GER40: Germany factory orders
TWN: Taiwan CPI
USD: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
US30: Walt Disney earnings
UK100: BP earnings

Wednesday, 8th May

GER40: Germany industrial production
SEK: Riksbank rate decision
TWN: Taiwan trade
USD: Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech
JP225: Toyota earnings

Thursday, 9th May

CN50: China trade
JP225: BoJ summary of opinions
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production
USD: US initial jobless claims
UK100: BoE rate decision

Friday, 10th May

CAD: Canada unemployment
JP225: Japan household spending
EUR: ECB meeting minutes
NZD: New Zealand home sales, PMI
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speech
UK100: UK industrial production, Q1 GDP, BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speech

FXTM’s UK100 caught our attention this morning after kissing a fresh all-time high.

Note: UK100 tracks the FTSE100 index – the benchmark measuring the stock performance of the 100 largest listed companies on the London Stock Exchange.

After ending April over 2% higher and hitting record highs along the way, it looks like the FTSE100 has got its mojo back. Bulls have been supported by easing geopolitical risks and expectations around the BoE cutting interest rates by August.

With all the above said, the week ahead could be volatile for the UK100!

Here are 3 reasons why:

1) BoE rate decision

The Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week.

So much focus will be directed towards the policy statement, BoE Bailey’s news conference and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) – making it a super Thursday combo.

Note: Over 80% of the revenues from FTSE100 companies come from outside of the UK.

So essentially, when the pound appreciates, it results in lower revenues for those companies that acquire sales from overseas – dragging the UK100 lower as a result. The same is true vice versa.

Traders are currently pricing in a 45% probability of a 25-basis point BoE cut by June with this jumping to 89% by August.

The UK100 could push higher if the pound weakens on any hints around lower UK rates.

Should a hawkish-sounding BoE boost the pound, the UK100 could fall.

2) Key UK data

Beyond the BoE rate decision, all eyes will be on first-quarter GDP figures published on Friday.

Markets expect a modest quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% as the economy rebounds from the mild recession in the second half of 2023. Also, keep an eye on the latest industrial production figures which could provide additional insight into the health of the UK economy.

Should the data support the case for lower UK interest rates, this could support the UK100.

If the reports push back BoE cut bets – this may hit the UK100 as the pound strengthens.

Note: On the earnings front, BP’s latest results published on Tuesday could trigger volatility as it accounts for just over 4% of the FTSE100 weighting.

3) Technical forces

The UK100 is firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index indicates that overbought conditions have been reached.

A solid weekly close above 8200 may encourage a move towards the next psychological level at 8300.

Should prices slip below 8200, this could trigger a decline towards 8111 and potentially 8023 before bulls jump back into the scene.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

03 May

The British index has updated the historical maximum. Oil lost 5% over the week

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.85%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.91%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.33%. Optimism about the economic outlook is supporting stocks. Stocks have also received support since Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s next move is unlikely to be an interest rate hike. Stock indices maintained gains even after US economic reports showed weekly jobless claims rose less than expected and unit labor costs rose more in the first quarter, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.

On Thursday, Apple (AAPL) reported second-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to better-than-expected performance in its key China market. It also announced the most significant share repurchase in its history. Apple Inc (AAPL) shares rose more than 7% after the report. Qualcomm (QCOM) rose more than 9% after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and predicting third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus. On the downside, Etsy (ETSY) is down more than 16% after the company reported first-quarter gross merchandise sales below consensus.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its 2024 global growth prognosis to 3.1% from a February estimate of 2.9% and said risks are becoming “more balanced.”

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.88%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.63%.

On Thursday, the FTSE 100 Index hit a new record high of 8160 on positive corporate developments. Shell shares rose more than 2.5% after announcing a $3.5 billion share buyback and better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and cash flow.

WTI crude futures stabilized above $79 a barrel on Friday but are still down more than 5% this week as easing fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, signs of increased US oil supplies, and growing uncertainty about the outlook for oil demand weighed on prices. Egypt led efforts this week to restart stalled peace talks between Israel and Hamas. At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hamas to accept Israel’s offer of a ceasefire in exchange for hostages. Meanwhile, OPEC+ said it may extend a voluntary 2.2 million BPD production cut beyond June if oil demand does not recover.

US natural gas (XNGUSD) prices climbed above the $2/MMBtu mark on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive losses. Prognoses point to higher demand next week, including increased gas deliveries to LNG export plants. In addition, the latest EIA report showed that US utilities pumped 59 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas into storage for the week ended April 26, 2024, compared to market expectations of a 55 BCF increase. Inventories are now 34.9% above the seasonal average.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was not trading, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 2.5% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.23%.

Global hedge funds using a strategy of long-short equity market positions are increasingly tilted in favor of China, as evidenced by their active buying of Hong Kong-listed stocks. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 7% in April, posting its best monthly gain since January 2023 and outperforming most significant markets. Swiss bank UBS said in a research note that trends in the Hong Kong market have reversed, unlike in February when the primary inflows came from covering short positions. As Hong Kong stocks rose, fundamental hedge funds with long-short positions continued accumulating shares of Chinese companies.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,064.20 +45.81 (+0.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,225.66 +322.37 (+0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 17,896.50 −35.67 (−0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,172.15 +50.91 (+0.63%)

USD Index 105.39 −0.36 (−0.34%)

Important events today:

– Norwegian NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 May

Boeing’s Starliner is about to launch – if successful, the test represents an important milestone for commercial spaceflight

By Wendy Whitman Cobb, Air University

If all goes well late on May 6, 2024, NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams will blast off into space on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft. Launching from the Kennedy Space Center, this last crucial test for Starliner will test out the new spacecraft and take the pair to the International Space Station for about a week.

Part of NASA’s commercial crew program, this long-delayed mission will represent the vehicle’s first crewed launch. If successful, it will give NASA – and in the future, space tourists – more options for getting to low Earth orbit.

From my perspective as a space policy expert, Starliner’s launch represents another significant milestone in the development of the commercial space industry. But the mission’s troubled history also shows just how difficult the path to space can be, even for an experienced company like Boeing.

GMT140_EHDC3 Files_1157

By NASA – https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasa2explore/52096388014/, Public Domain, Link

Origins and development

Following the retirement of NASA’s space shuttle in 2011, NASA invited commercial space companies to help the agency transport cargo and crew to the International Space Station.

In 2014, NASA selected Boeing and SpaceX to build their respective crew vehicles: Starliner and Dragon.

Boeing’s vehicle, Starliner, was built to carry up to seven crew members to and from low Earth orbit. For NASA missions to the International Space Station, it will carry up to four at a time, and it’s designed to remain docked to the station for up to seven months. At 15 feet, the capsule where the crew will sit is slightly bigger than an Apollo command module or a SpaceX Dragon.

Boeing designed Starliner to be partially reusable to reduce the cost of getting to space. Though the Atlas V rocket it will take to space and the service module that supports the craft are both expendable, Starliner’s crew capsule can be reused up to 10 times, with a six-month turnaround. Boeing has built two flightworthy Starliners to date.

Starliner’s development has come with setbacks. Though Boeing received US$4.2 billion from NASA, compared with $2.6 billion for SpaceX, Boeing spent more than $1.5 billion extra in developing the spacecraft.

On Starliner’s first uncrewed test flight in 2019, a series of software and hardware failures prevented it from getting to its planned orbit as well as docking with the International Space Station. After testing out some of its systems, it landed successfully at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.

In 2022, after identifying and making more than 80 fixes, Starliner conducted a second uncrewed test flight. This time, the vehicle did successfully dock with the International Space Station and landed six days later in New Mexico.

The inside of a Starliner holds a few astronauts. Crew members first trained for the launch in a simulator.

Still, Boeing delayed the first crewed launch for Starliner from 2023 to 2024 because of additional problems. One involved Starliner’s parachutes, which help to slow the vehicle as it returns to Earth. Tests found that some links in those parachute lines were weaker than expected, which could have caused them to break. A second problem was the use of flammable tape that could pose a fire hazard.

A major question stemming from these delays concerns why Starliner has been so difficult to develop. For one, NASA officials admitted that it did not provide as much oversight for Starliner as it did for SpaceX’s Dragon because of the agency’s familiarity with Boeing.

And Boeing has experienced several problems recently, most visibly with the safety of its airplanes. Astronaut Butch Wilmore has denied that Starliner’s problems reflect these troubles.

But several of Boeing’s other space activities beyond Starliner have also experienced mechanical failures and budget pressure, including the Space Launch System. This system is planned to be the main rocket for NASA’s Artemis program, which plans to return humans to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo era.

Significance for NASA and commercial spaceflight

Given these difficulties, Starliner’s success will be important for Boeing’s future space efforts. Even if SpaceX’s Dragon can successfully transport NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, the agency needs a backup. And that’s where Starliner comes in.

Following the Challenger explosion in 1986 and the Columbia shuttle accident in 2003, NASA retired the space shuttle in 2011. The agency was left with few options to get astronauts to and from space. Having a second commercial crew vehicle provider means that NASA will not have to depend on one company or vehicle for space launches as it previously had to.

Perhaps more importantly, if Starliner is successful, it could compete with SpaceX. Though there’s no crushing demand for space tourism right now, and Boeing has no plans to market Starliner for tourism anytime soon, competition is important in any market to drive down costs and increase innovation.

More such competition is likely coming. Sierra Space’s Dream Chaser is planning to launch later this year to transport cargo for NASA to the International Space Station. A crewed version of the space plane is also being developed for the next round of NASA’s commercial crew program. Blue Origin is working with NASA in this latest round of commercial crew contracts and developing a lunar lander for the Artemis program.

Though SpaceX has made commercial spaceflight look relatively easy, Boeing’s rocky experience with Starliner shows just how hard spaceflight continues to be, even for an experienced company.

Starliner is important not just for NASA and Boeing, but to demonstrate that more than one company can find success in the commercial space industry. A successful launch would also give NASA more confidence in the industry’s ability to support operations in Earth’s orbit while the agency focuses on future missions to the Moon and beyond.

About the Author:

Wendy Whitman Cobb, Professor of Strategy and Security Studies, Air University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

02 May

High interest rates aren’t going away anytime soon – a business economist explains why

By Christopher Decker, University of Nebraska Omaha

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its May 1, 2024, policy meeting, dashing the hopes of potential homebuyers and others who were hoping for a cut. Not only will rates remain at their current level – a 23-year high – for at least another month, there’s little reason to believe the Fed will start tapering until the fall. Indeed, if inflation starts to heat back up, it’s plausible — though at the moment unlikely — that the Fed will consider ratcheting up rates another 25 basis points or so in the coming months.

As recently as a few months ago, investors were betting that 2024 would bring a slew of rate cuts.

But speaking as a business economist, I think it’s clear that the latest economic data discouraged the Fed from easing up as it gathered for its latest policy meeting. There’s no sign of an imminent recession. Employment is still pretty strong, with the U.S. adding 303,000 jobs in March 2024 and 270,000 in February, and the unemployment rate – at 3.8% in March – ticked up only slightly from 3.5% in March 2023. That is simply not a large enough increase to be concerned that high rates are slowing the economy down too abruptly.

While it’s true that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product growth, after posting a remarkable 4.8% annualized increase in the fourth quarter of 2023, slowed significantly to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, slower growth is exactly what the Fed has been attempting to engineer by raising interest rates. By controlling demand for good and services, price growth slows. That’s still not a recessionary indication.

The inflation challenge

Getting inflation rates down to the Fed’s 2% target — a number that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell repeated several times during his news conference — has been challenging, to say the least. The Fed began hiking interest rates in early 2022. Initially, it had some success in reducing inflation that had peaked at about 9% that year. Indeed, as Powell said, the reduction in inflation was historically fast, due in part to both rate increases and easing international supply chain disruptions. But since June 2023, when inflation was 3.1%, there’s been little decline. Indeed, consumer price index growth hasn’t fallen below 3% since March 2021.

One of the main reasons inflation has stayed high is that there aren’t enough workers. Economic growth increases labor demand, and labor supply simply hasn’t kept pace. The result is higher wages. With higher wages, firms need to cut costs elsewhere, increase prices, or both, to maintain profitability.

Another important driver of inflation, which Powell took pains to mention, is the rising cost of rent. With higher mortgage rates, the housing market has slowed considerably, and many Americans — especially younger ones — are renting instead of buying. Sustained demand for apartments, combined with increased costs of maintenance and upkeep of rental properties, is pressuring rents upward.

Could hikes be in the future?

The next rate decision, in June, is “unlikely” to bring an increase, Powell said during his news conference. He also indicated said the current regime of high rates should be sufficient to tame inflation.

Indeed, as he noted, new job openings have fallen from a peak of 12.1 million in March 2022 to 8.4 million in March 2024. While that’s still high in absolute terms, it’s a significant decline, which suggests slower labor demand. This should then reduce pressure on wages.

So, what about rate cuts? After all, some observers were expecting rate cuts to begin this summer. Based on the information I’m looking at, that is simply not going to happen. No move will occur until September at the earliest. Until then, expect a sluggish housing market and costly borrowing, but moderating inflation and slow but steady growth.

About the Author:

Christopher Decker, Professor of Economics, University of Nebraska Omaha

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

02 May

US Fed tilts towards a rate cut despite the postponement. HKMA left the rate unchanged at 5.75%

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.34%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.33%. US stock indices traded mixed on Wednesday. Stock prices rose after bond yields fell, and Fed Chairman Powell said it was unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike. However, the broader market gave up its gains and declined to close on the prospect of higher long-term interest rates. The broader market also came under pressure after Wednesday’s ADP employment change report for April rose more than expected, indicating a strengthening US labor market and strengthening the case for the Fed not to cut interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell ruled out the possibility of another rate hike, confirming that the Central Bank is leaning toward easing despite the delay. Meanwhile, policymakers acknowledged that inflation has fallen over the past year but remains high, saying there has been no progress on the Central Bank’s inflation target in recent months. Investors now await the critical monthly US jobs report on Friday to gauge the labor market’s strength and determine the future outlook for rates.

Starbucks (SBUX) shares fell more than 15% after the company reported an unexpected decline in comparable sales in the second quarter. Additionally, Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is up more than 13% after it reported first-quarter earnings that beat consensus estimates. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed down more than 8% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $5.4–6.0 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $5.72 billion. Kraft Heinz (KHC) lost more than 6% after the company reported first-quarter net sales of $6.41 billion, below the consensus forecast of $6.43 billion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, about 81% of the S&P 500 companies already reported beat first-quarter earnings forecasts.

European equity markets did not trade yesterday, except for the British FTSE 100 (UK100), which closed negative 0.04%.

WTI crude oil prices stabilized above $79 per barrel on Thursday amid speculation that the US government may move to replenish its strategic oil reserves as it seeks to buy back oil at or below $79 per barrel. However, WTI crude prices remained near 7-week lows and are down more than 5% this week as hopes of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and rising US crude inventories put pressure on the oil market.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.23%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% on May 2, hours after the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. Monetary policy in the Asian financial hub is conducted in line with US policy as the local currency is pegged to the US dollar.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods fell to A$5.02 billion in March 2024 from a downwardly revised $6.59 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of $7.30 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since November 2020, as exports grew slower than imports.

The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 49.0 from March’s three-month low of 48.4. It was the 20th consecutive month of contraction in factory activity as demand remained weak. Declines in output and new orders were more moderate, with overseas sales rising for the first time in a year and at the fastest pace since April 2021. Employment remained flat after three consecutive monthly declines. On the other hand, purchasing activity declined, and delivery times fell marginally.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,018.39 −17.30 ((−0.34%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,903.29 +87.37 (+0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 17,932.17 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,121.24 −22.89 (−0.28%)

USD Index 105.63 −0.59 (−0.56%)

Important events today:

– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 May

Brent crude oil hits seven-week low

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices have dropped to $83.95 per barrel on Thursday, marking the lowest level in seven weeks. This decline follows recent US statistics indicating a significant increase in crude oil inventories and production. According to the Department of Energy, inventories rose by 7.30 million barrels last week, contrary to the forecasted decrease of 2.3 million barrels. Additionally, February’s oil production escalated to 13.15 million barrels per day from January’s 12.58 million, the most substantial monthly increase in three and a half years.

These developments have provided bearish signals for the market, mirroring similar trends on the commodity platform.

Amidst falling oil prices, there is ongoing discussion about potential US actions to replenish their strategic hydrocarbon reserves, particularly if prices drop to $79.00 per barrel or below.

The oil market is also influenced by some stabilisation in the Middle East, with emerging hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by Egypt. This development has reduced the risk of a broader conflict in the region, contributing to the decrease in oil prices.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent oil has formed a consolidation range around the $87.50 level, with the current correction wave extending downwards. The price has already reached $83.50, and a further stretch to $82.82 is possible. Upon completing this correction, a new wave of growth towards $88.60 is anticipated, potentially continuing to $95.00. This bullish scenario is supported technically by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero, suggesting a forthcoming update of the lows.

On the H1 chart, a fifth correction structure is developing towards $82.72. Once this target is achieved, a growth phase to $88.58 is expected, marking the first target of the new growth wave. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 and poised to descend to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

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