22 May

Ethereum: ETF D-Day looms

By ForexTime 

  • Ethereum ↑ over 20% this week
  • Crypto could rally another 35,000 points
  • Prices bullish on D1 but RSI overbought
  • Key level of interest at $3806.49 & $40000

Ethereum is back in the spotlight after soaring over 20% this week.

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has been boosted by growing expectations around US regulators finally approving spot ETFs.

Investors remain hopeful after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showed an interest in giving the green light after months of uncertainty.

This could be a pivotal moment for Ethereum which may ride the crest of this ETF wave to a fresh year-to-date high beyond $4094.

However, this will depend on what the SEC does tomorrow (Thursday, May 23rd) – the final deadline to decide on VanEck’s spot Ethereum application.

Just like we saw with Bitcoin ETFs, the approval of an Ethereum ETF would increase the exposure of the cryptocurrency. This may lead to potential inflows of new investors due to the easier and greater access.

Regarding the technicals, Ethereum bulls (those looking to see Ethereum prices rally), could set their sights on these near-term resistance levels.

  • $3806.49: – The 261.8 Fibonacci level where price is testing today after being rejected yesterday.

  • $40000: – A psychologically important level.

The crypto bears (those looking to see prices of Ethereum decline), on the other hand may take advantage of a possible “buy the rumour sell the fact scenario”, and have their sights set on the near term support at:

  • $3445.05 which is the golden 161.8 Fibonacci ratio.

The Fibonacci retracement tool is drawn from May 6th, high at $3221.68 to May 14th, low at 2860.24.

Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator that highlights zones in the market that are saturated with buyers (overbought) and sellers (oversold), Ethereum is technically overbought.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
21 May

Today, traders are focused on Canadian inflation data and waiting for the RBNZ interest rate decision

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.49%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.65% and set a new all-time high. A negative factor for the indices was the strengthening of the US dollar amid hawkish comments from FOMC representatives. San Francisco Fed President Daly, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said they favor maintaining the Fed’s current restrictive policy until inflation falls to 2%.

On Wednesday, markets will wait for the minutes from the May 1 FOMC meeting to see how close the Fed is to cutting interest rates. Also, on this day, earnings results from Nvidia and Analog Devices will be examined to gauge demand for semiconductor chips.

Canada’s April inflation data will be released today. Overall, price pressures in Canada are easing. The downward trend in various CPI measures has stabilized in the second half of 2023. The core measures — core, median, and overall CPI — declined for the third consecutive month in March. The headline rate rose slightly to 2.8%, but this is not a concern, as wage growth has also slowed since the beginning of the year. The Bank of Canada meets on June 5, and there is a 40% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. A softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index report for April could bring that probability closer to 50-60%. However, even if there is significant downward progress in inflation, a rate cut is more likely in July.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.35% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.05%.

It is almost 100% likely that the ECB will reduce borrowing costs as early as June, but even after that, there is uncertainty, and many policymakers favor a cautious approach. After the June meeting, ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks cautioned against a rush to cut ECB interest rates.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $79 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, as investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East following the death of Iran’s president in a helicopter crash and emerging health concerns for Saudi Arabia’s king. However, markets are not too worried about oil supplies from the region as there are no signs of oil supply disruptions. Investors are also cautiously anticipating the upcoming OPEC meeting on June 1 for a possible postponement of production cuts. Meanwhile, recent events such as Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries and a Houthi missile attack on a China-bound oil tanker in the Red Sea continued to pose risks to global supply.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.73%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.42%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.63%.

Australia’s inflation is declining at a slower-than-expected pace, with recent data suggesting that risks to inflation have risen slightly, minutes from the Reserve Bank’s May meeting showed. The situation prompted the Central Bank to reopen discussions on raising the interest rate, but it ultimately decided that the case for holding the rate was stronger. Policymakers reiterated that bringing inflation back to the target range of 2–3% remains their top priority. They added that the target could be reached in the second half of 2025 and the median in 2026. At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to be at a level consistent with the Committee’s full employment mandate by mid-2025.

The New Zealand dollar has weakened slightly recently as traders await Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision. The Central Bank is expected to leave the official money rate at 5.5% for the 7th consecutive meeting. Market attention will thus be focused on whether it will signal that interest rate cuts could begin sooner than the mid-2025 cut indicated in February’s prognoses. Last week, data showed that the country’s two-year inflation expectations fell to the lowest level in almost three years in the second quarter, fueling speculation that the RBNZ may consider cutting rates later this year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,308.13 +4.86 (+0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,806.77 −196.82 (−0.49%)

DAX (DE40) 18,768.96 +64.54 (+0.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,424.20 +3.94 (+0.05%)

USD Index 104.50 +0.05 (+0.05%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:05 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 16:10 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 18:45 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
21 May

Euro/Dollar in consolidation

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is gently declining towards 1.0858 on Tuesday but remains within a medium-term range.

This week sees few significant US statistics releases, which could provide investors with insights into future interest rate movements. However, numerous speeches from US Federal Reserve members are expected. Investors will be keenly listening for any indications about the Fed’s monetary policy.

On Monday, several Fed officials advocated for maintaining a cautious monetary policy strategy, despite last week’s data showing a reduction in inflationary pressures in April.

It is likely that all forthcoming comments from Fed officials will echo a similar sentiment—that the Fed remains patient and consistent. The Fed requires time to gather more data on easing price pressures. While there are indications of such easing, they are not yet systemic. This cautious approach has done little to alter investor expectations significantly. The market now anticipates that the Fed will lower rates twice before the end of the year, with the first cut expected in September.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range below the level of 1.0890. A downward exit from this range could lead to a continuation of the downward wave to 1.0784. Breaking this level might further extend the trend to 1.0683, which is the first target of the decline wave. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line at the maximums while the histograms are below the zero mark and continue to decline.

On the H1 chart, the correction to 1.0883 has been completed. Currently, the structure of a downside wave to 1.0833 is forming. After reaching this level, a narrow consolidation range around it is expected. A downward exit from this range could open the potential for a further decline to 1.0785, which is the local target of the downward wave. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and expected to decline to 20.

Summary

The EUR/USD pair remains in a consolidation phase with a gentle downward movement. Technical indicators suggest potential for further declines, but market participants will be closely watching Fed communications for any hints on future monetary policy, which could influence the pair’s direction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
21 May

XAGUSD: Hits fresh 11-year high above $32

By ForexTime 

  • Silver ↑ 33% year-to-date
  • One of the best-performing major commodities
  • Relatively “cheap” compared to gold
  • Bullish on D1 but RSI overbought

Gold is not the only metal delivering glittering returns this year…

Silver has also been on a tear, soaring to its highest level in more than a decade.

The precious metal punched above $32 this week, and is currently up 33% since the start of 2024. 

When compared with year-to-date gains of:

  • Tin: 35%

  • Copper: 31%

  • Nickel: 30%

  • Gold: 17%

  • Zinc: 17%

  • Platinum: 6%

Silver is the second-best performer in the metal space and one of the top gainers in the wider commodity arena.

Why is silver soaring?

Various forces have propelled the precious metal higher – ranging from growing investor interest to macroeconomic forces and supply-side factors, among other themes.

But gold’s bullish momentum has also provided silver ample support.

Gold hit fresh all-time highs this week due to geopolitical risks with central bank buying and prospects of lower US interest rates keeping bulls in power.

Silver often follows gold’s lead, with interest rate expectations impacting appetite for non-yielding assets like precious metals.

To put things into perspective, silver and gold have moved in tandem over 80% of the time in any given 10-day period over the past 20 years.

What other forces are in play?

Beyond the macroeconomic forces, silver is also influenced by industrial demand.

Given how it’s a key component for clean energy technologies, the usage of the metal is expected to reach records in 2024 amid robust growth in the industry.

Interestingly, copper which is also a crucial element in the creation of solar panels, wind turbines and hydro systems has also reached all-time highs.

It does not end here…

Silver markets are heading for their fourth consecutive year of shortages.

According to the Silver Institute, the precious metal is expected to experience its second-highest deficit on record in 2024. As demand continues to outpace supply of silver, the deficit is forecast to increase by 17% this year amid robust industrial consumption.

Can silver push higher?

When considering all the bullish fundamentals at play, further upside could be on the cards.

But most importantly, silver is still considered relatively cheap compared to gold.

Looking at the gold-silver ratio, it takes around 76 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold.

Given how the 20-year average is 68, silver has scope to extend gains if the ratio rebalances down the road.

Technical outlook:

Silver is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.

Prices are trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD above zero. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 70 – indicating that prices are heavily overbought.

  • A solid breakout above $32.50 will open doors to fresh all-time highs with the next level of interest rate $33.00.
  • Sustained weakness below $32.50 may encourage a decline toward $29.33.
  • Should prices slip below $29.33 this could open the doors towards the 50-day SMA.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
20 May

Trade Of The Week: Nvidia headed for $1000 milestone?

By ForexTime 

  • Nvidia almost ↑ 90% year-to-date
  • Will chipmaker see new all-time high?
  • Pay close attention to Nvidia’s datacenter revenue forecasts
  • Shares could move 8.6% ↑ or ↓ post earnings on Thursday!    
  • Nvidia last earnings saw S&P 500’s biggest 1-day jump in over 12 months

In case you missed the memo, Nvidia is set to announce its latest earnings this week!

This is a major event for markets considering how the chipmaker is at the heart of the AI buzz. Investors will be looking for another round of stellar results to justify its whooping $2.3 trillion valuation.

Since the last earnings release in February, Nvidia shares have climbed about 37%, taking year-to-date gains to almost 90%!

  • When will earnings be published?

Nvidia will report its earnings for the first quarter of its 2025 fiscal year (3 months ending April 30th) after US markets close on Wednesday 22nd May.

  • Market expectations:

The darling of AI and tech investors is expected to post earnings of $5.53 compared to $1.09 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are seen rising to $24.6 billion from $7.2 billion in the prior year – equating to a 242% increase!

Beyond the backward-looking numbers, markets will also be obsessed about what Nvidia conveys about its potential earnings in the future.

Markets are particularly focused on its revenue from data centers, which now account for over 80% of Nvidia’s total revenue.

Datacenters have now overtaken the gaming sector as the leading contributor to Nvidia’s total revenue.

Revenue from datacenters are expected to reach US$ 30 billion by 2026, which is a massive jump from the US$ 4.3 billion posted in the first quarter of its 2024 fiscal year.

Markets may need to see such projections revised higher in order to justify an even-higher price for this stock, based on its future earnings.

Otherwise, if markets can’t reconcile Nvidia’s 90% year-to-date gains with less-than-expected future earnings, markets may have zero qualms about triggering a massive selloff for this stock.

After all, markets are forward-looking in nature: today’s price reflects tomorrow’s hopes (or disappointments).

  • What is the big deal?

The company’s earnings and forward guidance may serve as a key gauge for the AI hype.

After delivering knockout results last quarter, Nvidia was able to satisfy investor expectations. However, this earnings season is showing that investors are becoming harder to impress.

Still, this could be one of the biggest moving events for the S&P 500 in 2024.

Looking at the charts, the S&P 500 saw its biggest 1-day percentage move in over 12 months back on February 22nd.

This was one day after Nvidia released its Q4 earnings with the S&P 500 soaring over 2%.

To be clear, we are not stating that history will repeat itself but simply highlighting how much muscle Nvidia has to move US markets and even other stock indexes globally.

  • Potential challenges…

Growing competition from other chipmakers and even its biggest customers – Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet.

Threat of disruptions from its major chip supplier Taiwan Semiconductor, after the deadly earthquake in Taiwan last month.

US-China Chip war: Can Nvidia’s earnings take such geopolitical risks in stride?

  • How will Nvidia react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting an 8.6% move, either Up or Down, for Nvidia stocks on Thursday post earnings. 

  • What does this mean for prices?

An 8.6% move up from $923 will take Nvidia’s shares to fresh all-time highs beyond the $1000 level.  

While an 8.6% move down will send prices back below $850.

  • How about wider markets?

Instruments that have a strong correlation with Nvidia could see some action.

Nvidia has shown a 70% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and over 60% correlation with Taiwan Semiconductor (US listed) in the past 12 months.

But digger deeper, over a rolling 5-day period from the past 20 years:

  • S&P500: +0.94
  • Texas Instruments:  +0.84
  • Broadcom:  +0.84
  • QUALCOMM: +0.75
  • Advanced Micro Devices: +0.40
  • Analog Devices: +0.70
  • Micron Technology: +0.60

 

  • The bigger picture…

With a $2.3 trillion valuation, an 8.6% move in the price of its stock is almost $200 billion!

This is bigger than the entire market caps of many large companies in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100!

Heck, it’s even bigger than some of its competitors like Texas Instrument, Analog Devices, and Micron among others.

  • Ultimately a solid set of earnings along with a forward guidance that excites investors could push prices to all-time highs beyond 973.75.
  • If the chipmaker disappoints, the stocks could find itself on a slippery decline with the 50 SMA acting as the first point of interest.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
20 May

Precious and industrial metals show strong growth. Oil grows amid the news about the death of Iran’s leader

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.34% (+1.04% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.12% (+1.34% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.07% (for the week +1.74%). The US stock indices were mixed on Friday, consolidating just below the week’s highs. Stocks received some support thanks to dovish comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said that if the outlook develops as he expects, citing a slow downshift in inflation and continued economic momentum, “then it would be appropriate for us to cut rates by the end of the year.”

Reddit (RDDT) surged over 13% after it partnered with OpenAI to bring its content to chatbot ChatGPT. According to analysts, the deal will boost Reddit’s data licensing business. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose more than 2% on Friday after Wolfe Research added it to its alpha list, replacing Nvidia (NVDA).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.18% (for the week -0.37%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.26% (for the week -0.53%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.25% (for the week +2.01%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22% (for the week -0.16%).

Comments from Fed officials suggesting a prolonged continuation of high interest rates and ECB member Schnabel’s cautious stance on rate cuts after June contributed to the prevailing caution in European markets. The FTSE 100 Index declined on Friday as global markets also showed weakness, fueled by concerns about a prolonged continuation of high interest rates. UK money markets expect a potential 60 bps cut in interest rates by the Bank of England in 2024, with the first cut expected in August.

Gold rose to a record $2,430 an ounce on Monday after recent US economic data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve may go for at least two rate cuts this year. Silver surpassed $30 an ounce, hitting its highest level since January 2013, thanks to higher gold prices and robust investment and industrial demand. While ETF funds have shown little interest in silver, physical buying has increased.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $80 a barrel on Monday, extending gains from last week after Iran’s state media reported the death of a leader at the crash site of a helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi, adding to political uncertainty in one of the largest oil-producing countries. The foreign minister was in the helicopter with him.

Asian markets were mostly rising last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.51%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 1.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 4.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.84%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left key lending rates unchanged during its May meeting, matching market expectations. The 1-year prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was kept at 3.45%. Meanwhile, the 5-year rate, the benchmark for real estate mortgages, was maintained at 3.95% after a record 25 bps decline in February. Both rates are at record lows amid Beijing’s attempts to stimulate economic recovery after mixed activity data in April, marked by solid industrial production growth, the lowest unemployment rate in five months, and weak retail sales.

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.67, hitting four-month highs. New stimulus measures in China and bets on lower interest rates in the US boosted commodity prices, boosting sentiment in Australian markets. Later last week, China announced a broad package of measures to support the struggling real estate market, including easing mortgage lending rules and urging local governments to buy unsold homes. Domestically, investors are eagerly awaiting the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting for clues on the future path of rates.

Investors in New Zealand look forward to Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. The Central Bank is expected to leave the official money rate at 5.5% for the 7th consecutive meeting, with policymakers likely to reiterate the need to maintain restrictive policies for an extended period to bring inflation back into the 1–3% target range.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,303.27 +6.17 (+0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,003.59 +134.21 (+0.34%)

DAX (DE40) 18,704.42 −34.39 (−0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,420.26 −18.39 (−0.22%)

USD Index 104.50 +0.05 (+0.05%)

Important events today:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
20 May

Gold hits new record high

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, a troy ounce of gold set a new price peak of 3438.00 USD. This surge was fuelled by renewed speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, vigorous gold purchases by banks globally, and strong investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Recent statistics indicating a slowdown in consumer inflation in the US and a decline in retail sales have given the Fed more flexibility for potential ease of monetary policy this year. Although the Fed’s official stance has not changed, investors are already speculating on a rate cut. A lower interest rate would enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East contribute to the rise in gold prices. Furthermore, global central banks, including China, continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves and reduce dependency on the US dollar.

XAU/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, a consolidation range has formed above the level of 2374.00, with the growth wave continuing towards 2550.00. The local target of 2450.00 has been achieved. Today, a corrective move to at least 2410.00 is expected. If this level breaks, the correction could extend to 2374.00. Following this correction, growth towards 2550.00 is anticipated. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing upwards towards new highs.

On the H1 chart, a growth wave to 2450.00 was completed. Today, a correction to 2410.00 (testing from above) is anticipated. After this correction, another growth wave to 2450.00 is expected, potentially extending to 2550.00. This scenario is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 and expected to decline to 20 before resuming its upward trend.

Summary

Gold hits a new record high, driven by speculation about potential US interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, strong demand from central banks, and increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Technical analysis indicates short-term correction before continuing the upward trend towards higher targets. Investors should monitor these developments closely, as the market remains highly responsive to economic and geopolitical signals.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
19 May

Currency Speculators raise Euro & US Dollar bets into positive levels

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (12,565 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (8,740 contracts), the British Pound (1,738 contracts), the Swiss Franc (680 contracts), the Mexican Peso (649 contracts), Bitcoin (606 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (582 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,655 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-11,082 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-616 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators raise Euro & US Dollar bets into positive levels

This week’s COT currency’s data saw a continued improvement in many currencies (EUR, USDIndex, GBP, JPY) that had seen their positions weakening significantly over the past few months. Overall, most of the currency positions remain in weak levels versus the US dollar as only the Mexican peso, the Euro and the USD Index currently have positive bullish speculator positions.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Euro positions continue to rebound after a deeply negative stretch in March and April that took -84,396 contracts off the speculator position and dropped the Euro contracts into a bearish position for the first time since September of 2022. This week the Euro bets rose by +12,565 contracts following last week’s +11,367 contract gain and has brought the speculator standing to a current level of +17,155 contracts. The Euro exchange rate has been on a 5-week winning streak as well and closed this week at the 1.0889 level against the US dollar.

The US dollar index positions rose modestly again this week and have now been higher for six consecutive weeks. This recent bullishness has taken the speculator standing back into bullish territory after the position dipped into negative or bearish levels in March for the first time since 2021.

Japanese yen speculator bets continued to improve for a third straight week after falling to a multi-year low of -179,919 contracts on April 23rd. The three-week improvement has totaled +53,737 contracts and coincided with a reported intervention in the currency markets by the Japanese government to stop a sharp slide in the yen. Despite the intervention, the yen’s exchange rate versus the dollar continues to be historically weak with the USDJPY currency pair closing the week right around the 155.60 level.

The Canadian dollar speculative position dropped for a second straight week this week and the current -80,303 contract level is the most bearish standing in a month for the CAD bets. The renewed bearishness for speculators has brought the CAD into extreme bearishness versus its range over the past three years with a 1.9 percent strength score. The Canadian dollar exchange rate remains in a down-trending channel versus the US dollar with our weekly trend model also considering the CAD to be in a downtrend at the moment. However, the CADUSD currency pair has recently bounced off a base of support around the 0.7250 level for the fourth time since 2022.

The Mexican Peso saw a small weekly gain by just 649 contracts but this broke a four-week losing streak that saw a total of -27,379 contracts subtracted from the overall bullish position. Despite the recent weakness in positions, the MXN speculative position has remained the most bullish currency versus the US dollar and has maintained a speculator position above the +100,000 contract level for eleven consecutive weeks. This is the best +100,000 contract streak since late-2019 into early-2020. The MXN exchange rate versus the USD has been trending strongly higher over the past three weeks with a gain of approximately 4 percent in these three weeks and has now brought the exchange rate into positive territory year-to-date.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by the Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (87 percent) leads the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (2 percent), the Swiss Franc (3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (10.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.8 percent)
EuroFX (27.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (40.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (1.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (28.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (28.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (28.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (86.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (86.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.7 percent)
Bitcoin (63.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.6 percent)

Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-39 percent), Swiss Franc (-33 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (0.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-42.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-37.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-33.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-35.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-22.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-14.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-9.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-39.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-52.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 2,435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.319.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.628.65.1
– Net Position:2,435-3,7901,355
– Gross Longs:29,6828,4723,535
– Gross Shorts:27,24712,2622,180
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.092.726.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-7.3-9.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.259.011.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.564.98.4
– Net Position:17,155-38,28221,127
– Gross Longs:178,398387,81276,472
– Gross Shorts:161,243426,09455,345
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.674.912.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-1.87.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.861.811.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.849.814.6
– Net Position:-20,07526,795-6,720
– Gross Longs:48,674137,91725,869
– Gross Shorts:68,749111,12232,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.060.746.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.137.1-5.5

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -126,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.972.713.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.327.915.6
– Net Position:-126,182133,294-7,112
– Gross Longs:35,303216,44239,446
– Gross Shorts:161,48583,14846,558
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.671.760.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-3.8-34.1

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -41,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a small weekly advance of 680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,787 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.379.112.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.622.024.0
– Net Position:-41,10751,769-10,662
– Gross Longs:6,64671,74511,121
– Gross Shorts:47,75319,97621,783
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.690.228.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.419.625.7

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.566.814.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.931.413.8
– Net Position:-80,30378,2202,083
– Gross Longs:34,286147,62632,492
– Gross Shorts:114,58969,40630,409
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.992.328.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.114.87.6

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -77,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -12,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.965.212.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.127.012.8
– Net Position:-77,17177,14229
– Gross Longs:40,059131,59625,881
– Gross Shorts:117,23054,45425,852
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.569.058.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.9-28.331.2

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly dip of just -9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.758.36.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.836.58.3
– Net Position:-11,20012,162-962
– Gross Longs:19,28432,4513,683
– Gross Shorts:30,48420,2894,645
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.670.341.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.43.628.4

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 112,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.941.02.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.186.21.3
– Net Position:112,961-116,6013,640
– Gross Longs:144,307105,8406,997
– Gross Shorts:31,346222,4413,357
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.913.334.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.210.9-13.2

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.378.23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.715.93.4
– Net Position:-38,25938,24910
– Gross Longs:11,25747,9832,105
– Gross Shorts:49,5169,7342,095
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 14.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.034.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-39.440.6-17.6

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.84.15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.55.63.4
– Net Position:-177-421598
– Gross Longs:21,0781,0991,519
– Gross Shorts:21,2551,520921
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.754.026.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.114.9-5.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
18 May

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Copper, Brazilian Real & Sugar lead weekly Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 14th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver


The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 59,461 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,809 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Copper


The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Copper speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 42.2 this week. The speculator position registered 61,780 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -868 contracts in speculator bets.

Fed Funds


The Fed Funds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Fed Funds speculator level resides at a 89.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 36.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 95,924 net contracts this week with a drop of -41,041 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -1.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -4,030 net contracts this week with a small dip of -40 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 86.9 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week.

The speculator position was 112,961 net contracts this week with a slight edge higher by 649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -39.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,259 net contracts this week with a decline of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.1 this week. The speculator position was 25,891 net contracts this week with a decrease by -2,670 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -276,454 net contracts this week with a drop of -62,155 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar


The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.1 this week. The speculator position was -80,303 net contracts this week with a decline of -11,082 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc


Finally, the Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 2.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.4 this week. The speculator position was -41,107 net contracts this week with a small boost of 680 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
18 May

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Platinum & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (10,787 contracts) with Silver (5,809 contracts), Gold (4,929 contracts) and Palladium (188 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-868 contracts) with Steel (-865 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Copper

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Copper (99 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (68.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.3 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.0 percent)
Copper (99.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (100.0 percent)
Platinum (83.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.5 percent)
Palladium (16.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.2 percent)
Steel (80.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.4 percent)

Copper & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (42 percent) and Platinum (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Steel (-13 percent) and Palladium (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.1 percent)
Silver (8.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.9 percent)
Copper (42.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (40.2 percent)
Platinum (42.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (17.3 percent)
Palladium (-4.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.4 percent)
Steel (-13.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.125.510.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.069.94.8
– Net Position:204,496-232,11027,614
– Gross Longs:277,642133,58352,633
– Gross Shorts:73,146365,69325,019
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.630.662.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.2-2.629.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.324.219.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.671.76.3
– Net Position:59,461-81,42221,961
– Gross Longs:87,93641,53232,735
– Gross Shorts:28,475122,95410,774
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.3 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.088.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-15.941.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.822.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.244.55.5
– Net Position:61,780-69,6567,876
– Gross Longs:163,66271,02625,246
– Gross Shorts:101,882140,68217,370
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.10.368.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.2-39.0-4.9

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.219.710.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.152.16.2
– Net Position:24,447-28,1943,747
– Gross Longs:53,31417,1819,115
– Gross Shorts:28,86745,3755,368
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.316.418.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.3-37.9-22.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -10,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.347.68.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.110.16.0
– Net Position:-10,90010,276624
– Gross Longs:6,11013,0342,271
– Gross Shorts:17,0102,7581,647
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 14.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.383.179.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.636.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.380.41.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.265.11.0
– Net Position:-4,2484,091157
– Gross Longs:3,57321,523437
– Gross Shorts:7,82117,432280
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.120.249.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.513.8-8.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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