InvestMacro

Japanese Yen Surges Amidst Potential Interventions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen showed significant strength against the US dollar late last week, with the USD/JPY pair currently stabilizing around 157.86. This marks the lowest level for the currency pair in nearly a month.

The yen’s recent surge is attributed to widespread market speculation regarding potential interventions by Japanese authorities. Analysts believe that Japan may have conducted two separate interventions to bolster the yen, although these could also involve large-scale position closings on exchanges, known as “stop triggers.”

Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan may have expended between 3.37 and 3.57 trillion yen ($21.18 to $22.00 billion) last Thursday alone, with Friday’s expenditures yet to be confirmed. This marks a short interval since the last currency intervention by the BOJ.

Additionally, the BOJ’s recent inquiries into bank exchange rates could have preemptively influenced market movements, sometimes seen as a precursor to formal interventions.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair is currently navigating a consolidation phase around the 158.24 level. We anticipate a potential decline to 157.05, followed by a rebound to 158.76. A subsequent drop to 154.74 is expected, which could prompt a corrective movement back to 158.24. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and indicating a downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, the USD/JPY is forming a downward wave towards 157.04. Upon reaching this level, a rise to at least 158.24 may occur, followed by another decline to 154.74. This bearish pattern is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line preparing to ascend from below 20 to around 50, suggesting potential brief recoveries amid overall downward momentum.

Market participants will closely monitor upcoming releases and statements from the Japanese government and the BOJ for confirmation of these interventions and further insights into future monetary policy actions.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Jul

Currency Speculators boost their British Pound bets to highest since 2007

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (22,649 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (18,249 contracts), the EuroFX (13,142 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (9,140 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,190 contracts) and Bitcoin (794 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-4,831 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,645 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,624 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-374 contracts) and with the Mexican Peso (-304 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators boost their British Pound bets to highest since 2007

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the strong gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling (GBP). The Pound Sterling speculative positioning increased this week for a second straight week – jumping by a total of +22,649 contracts following last week’s +17,993 contract gain.

The GBP speculator position has risen for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks for a ten-week gain of +113,680 contracts that has taken the net standing from a total of -28,990 contracts on April 30th to a total of +84,690 contracts this week.

The GBP speculator position is now at the most bullish level in the past 886 weeks, dating back all the way to July 17th of 2007 when the GBP net position hit a record high of +98,366 contracts.

The British Pound’s exchange rate with the US Dollar has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent low in April. The GBP has climbed strongly over the past two weeks and closed out this week at just a touch under the 1.3000 psychological resistance level. This is the highest weekly close for the GBPUSD currency pair since July of 2023 and the first close above the 200-week moving average since that time as well.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (91 percent), Bitcoin (65 percent) and the Mexican Peso (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent) and the Japanese Yen (1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (86.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (21.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (83.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (90.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (64.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (52.7 percent)

Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (48 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (36 percent), the US Dollar Index (26 percent) and Bitcoin (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-23 percent), Japanese Yen (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (25.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (27.9 percent)
EuroFX (-23.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-21.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (36.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-15.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (45.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (61.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-28.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-26.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-6.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-3.7 percent)
Bitcoin (9.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.7	18.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	58.2	4.6
– Net Position:	16,208	-17,419	1,211
– Gross Longs:	30,587	7,769	3,200
– Gross Shorts:	14,379	25,188	1,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	63.9	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.7	-25.3	-0.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	58.9	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	63.2	8.1
– Net Position:	3,623	-27,239	23,616
– Gross Longs:	165,829	375,248	75,272
– Gross Shorts:	162,206	402,487	51,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	79.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	21.5	-7.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.4	20.6	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	62.8	11.1
– Net Position:	84,690	-94,586	9,896
– Gross Longs:	135,316	46,249	34,670
– Gross Shorts:	50,626	140,835	24,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.9	-32.6	6.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -182,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	73.8	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	19.4	14.1
– Net Position:	-182,033	189,867	-7,834
– Gross Longs:	41,521	257,455	41,519
– Gross Shorts:	223,554	67,588	49,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	97.4	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	13.4	7.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	19.9	24.6
– Net Position:	-46,088	59,298	-13,210
– Gross Longs:	5,338	77,860	9,743
– Gross Shorts:	51,426	18,562	22,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	2.3	1.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -111,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -120,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	77.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	33.0	13.1
– Net Position:	-111,212	113,308	-2,096
– Gross Longs:	20,263	198,168	31,676
– Gross Shorts:	131,475	84,860	33,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.2	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	11.6	4.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,836 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	39.6	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	45.0	9.1
– Net Position:	2,413	-12,132	9,719
– Gross Longs:	98,997	89,192	30,274
– Gross Shorts:	96,584	101,324	20,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.6	-47.4	25.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,831 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	18.7	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	63.8	5.6
– Net Position:	25,912	-26,828	916
– Gross Longs:	41,683	11,129	4,250
– Gross Shorts:	15,771	37,957	3,334
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.7	6.5	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.9	-45.8	16.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 63,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	45.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	79.9	2.0
– Net Position:	63,323	-65,743	2,420
– Gross Longs:	95,748	85,441	6,150
– Gross Shorts:	32,425	151,184	3,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.5	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	28.1	-8.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	70.9	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.2	21.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-42,684	43,388	-704
– Gross Longs:	23,319	62,170	1,919
– Gross Shorts:	66,003	18,782	2,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.3	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	2.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.2	2.9	4.1
– Net Position:	-118	-88	206
– Gross Longs:	23,083	736	1,363
– Gross Shorts:	23,201	824	1,157
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	62.5	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	1.5	-15.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,232 contracts) with Copper (6,808 contracts), Silver (5,222 contracts) and Palladium (1,128 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,290 contracts) and Steel (-265 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Gold (91 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (85 percent), Platinum (79 percent) and Steel (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (28 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (91.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.9 percent)
Copper (85.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (79.1 percent)
Platinum (78.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.0 percent)
Palladium (28.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.3 percent)

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10 percent) and Gold (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-13 percent), Copper (-9 percent) and Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.3 percent)
Silver (5.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.2 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.9 percent)
Platinum (-13.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.9 percent)
Palladium (9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.7 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 254,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	18.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	72.3	4.8
– Net Position:	254,775	-280,629	25,854
– Gross Longs:	303,043	92,907	50,623
– Gross Shorts:	48,268	373,536	24,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	10.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-8.0	5.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,834 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	20.5	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	72.5	5.5
– Net Position:	61,056	-84,790	23,734
– Gross Longs:	84,351	33,496	32,735
– Gross Shorts:	23,295	118,286	9,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-4.1	-0.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	23.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	49.4	3.9
– Net Position:	56,031	-67,549	11,518
– Gross Longs:	141,237	62,868	21,924
– Gross Shorts:	85,206	130,417	10,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	12.2	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	7.9	1.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	21.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	57.4	4.1
– Net Position:	22,666	-29,563	6,897
– Gross Longs:	47,350	17,388	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	24,684	46,951	3,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	12.8	76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	6.9	39.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	54.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	14.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-9,557	9,369	188
– Gross Longs:	5,946	12,854	1,783
– Gross Shorts:	15,503	3,485	1,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.5	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-8.5	-12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	79.5	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	51.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-6,033	6,142	-109
– Gross Longs:	3,016	17,567	183
– Gross Shorts:	9,049	11,425	292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.0	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.8	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

13 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (111,115 contracts) with the Fed Funds (26,509 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18,777 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-72,528 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-28,629 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12,743 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-12,815 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-11,932 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (44.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (30.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (71.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (22.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (27.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (52.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.8 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-38 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-27 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-48.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-16.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-27.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-38.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (9.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -150,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 111,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	59.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	57.7	0.2
– Net Position:	-150,397	150,504	-107
– Gross Longs:	1,499,891	5,796,400	21,481
– Gross Shorts:	1,650,288	5,645,896	21,588
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	47.4	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-17.6	1.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	66.0	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	58.6	2.2
– Net Position:	-133,554	128,691	4,863
– Gross Longs:	250,994	1,150,944	42,510
– Gross Shorts:	384,548	1,022,253	37,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	58.5	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.7	41.9	11.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,232,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	76.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	51.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,232,315	1,073,528	158,787
– Gross Longs:	629,962	3,283,900	278,977
– Gross Shorts:	1,862,277	2,210,372	120,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	81.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	17.9	2.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,566,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,537,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	62.3	4.4
– Net Position:	-1,566,601	1,408,198	158,403
– Gross Longs:	454,103	5,370,659	437,566
– Gross Shorts:	2,020,704	3,962,461	279,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	97.7	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	7.4	18.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -417,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -72,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	76.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	68.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-417,904	350,466	67,438
– Gross Longs:	510,933	3,451,637	431,249
– Gross Shorts:	928,837	3,101,171	363,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	39.9	88.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-0.3	7.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -152,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	77.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	67.4	12.7
– Net Position:	-133,357	197,256	-63,899
– Gross Longs:	250,797	1,595,197	199,983
– Gross Shorts:	384,154	1,397,941	263,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	58.7	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-30.8	9.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -34,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	68.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	70.0	8.6
– Net Position:	-34,421	-32,389	66,810
– Gross Longs:	304,975	1,138,051	211,512
– Gross Shorts:	339,396	1,170,440	144,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	16.1	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	16.1	31.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -405,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -393,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.7	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	56.7	9.9
– Net Position:	-405,960	398,608	7,352
– Gross Longs:	145,579	1,342,054	172,216
– Gross Shorts:	551,539	943,446	164,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	92.9	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.2	48.3	-10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Russell 2000 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,809 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,742 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,067 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-43,203 contracts), the VIX (-8,053 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,559 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-423 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (73 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell-Mini (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Nikkei 225 (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (48.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (57.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (55.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (37.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (39.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only market with a positive reading for the stock markets.

The Nikkei 225 (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-24 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-20.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-2.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-24.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-26.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-26.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-18.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -61,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	47.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	34.2	6.1
– Net Position:	-61,478	61,231	247
– Gross Longs:	87,842	221,430	28,736
– Gross Shorts:	149,320	160,199	28,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	46.8	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	21.8	-5.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -43,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	70.0	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-55,011	-43,078	98,089
– Gross Longs:	309,758	1,434,315	266,655
– Gross Shorts:	364,769	1,477,393	168,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	34.0	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.7	-4.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	55.2	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	67.7	11.6
– Net Position:	7,795	-11,061	3,266
– Gross Longs:	22,317	48,737	13,525
– Gross Shorts:	14,522	59,798	10,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	22.2	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	9.6	-6.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	56.1	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.0	12.1
– Net Position:	5,217	-15,719	10,502
– Gross Longs:	66,337	148,257	42,436
– Gross Shorts:	61,120	163,976	31,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	35.3	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-9.9	0.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -67,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	79.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	66.5	4.1
– Net Position:	-67,626	58,789	8,837
– Gross Longs:	55,367	356,460	27,196
– Gross Shorts:	122,993	297,671	18,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	58.2	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	20.4	6.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	65.5	28.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	44.5	18.2
– Net Position:	-4,792	3,218	1,574
– Gross Longs:	925	10,030	4,358
– Gross Shorts:	5,717	6,812	2,784
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	48.9	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	22.1	-0.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -24,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	84.8	1.8
– Net Position:	-24,608	19,568	5,040
– Gross Longs:	31,004	378,665	12,714
– Gross Shorts:	55,612	359,097	7,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	57.1	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	0.8	-2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jul

Speculator Extremes: Australian Dollar, Brazil Real top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 9th 2024.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is currently at the maximum 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 47.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,413 net contracts this week with a boost of 18,249 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is also now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.2 this week. The speculator position registered 61,056 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 5,222 contracts in speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 35.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 84,690 net contracts this week with a jump of 22,649 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 12.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 75,420 net contracts this week with an increase by 7,659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Gold speculator level sits at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.2 this week.

The speculator position was 254,775 net contracts this week with a rise of 13,232 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,684 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,624 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The speculator position was -46,088 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,645 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,566,601 net contracts this week with a decline of -28,629 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 1.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.8 this week. The speculator position was -182,033 net contracts this week with a small gain of 2,190 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Finally, the Cotton speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 2.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.6 this week. The speculator position was -24,509 net contracts this week with a reduction by -7,188 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

13 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Oil & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (37,237 contracts) with Coffee (7,659 contracts), Wheat (3,904 contracts), Sugar (3,161 contracts), Cocoa (1,578 contracts) and Live Cattle (665 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-11,230 contracts), Soybeans (-27,936 contracts), Soybean Meal (-10,279 contracts), Cotton (-7,188 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-368 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (99 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (55 percent), Soybean Oil (45 percent), Wheat (43 percent) and Cocoa (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (2 percent), Corn (3 percent), Lean Hogs (6 percent) and the Soybeans (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (3.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (23.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (22.5 percent)
Coffee (99.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.9 percent)
Soybeans (11.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (54.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (58.8 percent)
Live Cattle (34.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (5.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (5.9 percent)
Cotton (2.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.0 percent)
Cocoa (42.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.7 percent)
Wheat (43.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.6 percent)

Sugar & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (21 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (12 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-29 percent), Corn (-24 percent) and Cotton (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-24.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-23.8 percent)
Sugar (20.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.4 percent)
Coffee (12.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybeans (-29.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-10.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-35.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-42.6 percent)
Cotton (-21.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.3 percent)
Wheat (-14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	44.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	28.7	10.3
– Net Position:	-239,941	250,562	-10,621
– Gross Longs:	309,195	698,186	150,884
– Gross Shorts:	549,136	447,624	161,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	95.8	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	21.2	38.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 68,019 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,858 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	53.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	64.0	7.5
– Net Position:	68,019	-80,789	12,770
– Gross Longs:	175,342	417,731	71,188
– Gross Shorts:	107,323	498,520	58,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	74.8	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-24.1	34.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 75,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	34.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	69.4	2.5
– Net Position:	75,420	-78,578	3,158
– Gross Longs:	90,458	75,501	8,606
– Gross Shorts:	15,038	154,079	5,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	0.2	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-11.8	-2.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -150,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	60.2	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	40.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-150,150	160,682	-10,532
– Gross Longs:	124,357	490,906	49,133
– Gross Shorts:	274,507	330,224	59,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.1	88.5	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	28.7	21.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 37,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	51.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	53.5	4.6
– Net Position:	6,477	-10,143	3,666
– Gross Longs:	113,261	280,271	28,641
– Gross Shorts:	106,784	290,414	24,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	57.9	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-15.5	-12.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	40.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	56.2	5.3
– Net Position:	66,354	-84,429	18,075
– Gross Longs:	143,642	208,260	45,589
– Gross Shorts:	77,288	292,689	27,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	44.3	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	21.9	-32.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 51,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	31.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	44.0	12.1
– Net Position:	51,277	-41,067	-10,210
– Gross Longs:	126,376	101,255	28,792
– Gross Shorts:	75,099	142,322	39,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	72.5	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	10.6	4.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -29,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	40.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	28.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-29,348	31,597	-2,249
– Gross Longs:	77,382	105,676	19,335
– Gross Shorts:	106,730	74,079	21,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	97.3	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	38.7	9.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -24,509 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	49.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	36.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-24,509	27,098	-2,589
– Gross Longs:	60,412	105,227	10,940
– Gross Shorts:	84,921	78,129	13,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	98.7	0.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	21.7	-18.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	34.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	61.8	3.8
– Net Position:	31,740	-38,427	6,687
– Gross Longs:	45,335	47,143	11,883
– Gross Shorts:	13,595	85,570	5,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	53.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-0.0	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	38.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	28.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-34,786	39,865	-5,079
– Gross Longs:	131,162	158,097	32,120
– Gross Shorts:	165,948	118,232	37,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	56.4	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	13.8	7.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Jul

US Fed to start cutting rates in September. The Canadian dollar reached a 2-month high

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.95%. Stocks found early support on Thursday on the Fed’s favorable June US CPI report, which lowered bond yields and reinforced speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates this year. However, a rotation out of technology stocks on Thursday pulled the S&P 500 away from a new record high and pressured the broader market. Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 8%, putting pressure on tech stocks after it postponed its robot cab unveiling to October.

June US CPI declined to 3.0% y/y from 3.3% y/y in May, better than expectations of 3.1% y/y. June CPI, excluding food and energy, declined to a 3-year low of 3.3% y/y from 3.4% y/y in May, which was better than expectations of no change at 3.4% y/y. US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to a 6-week low of 222,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of 235,000. The trade surplus with the US increased to $31.78 billion in June from $30.81 billion in the previous month. In the first half of 2024, the surplus totaled $435 billion, with exports rising 3.6% to $1.71 trillion and imports increasing 2.0% to $1.27 trillion. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 9% for the next FOMC meeting on July 30–31 and 93% for the September 17–18 meeting.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.36 per US dollar in July, hitting an eight-week high. This was due to a weaker dollar after a decline in US inflation boosted bets that the Fed would cut rates in September. These developments balanced the outlook for the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Canada’s macroeconomic backdrop also supports bets that the Bank of Canada will continue to lower borrowing costs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.69%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.71%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 0.89%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.36%.

WTI crude oil prices rose to 82.9 dollars per barrel on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session amid positive market sentiment following the release of lower-than-expected inflation data in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. The June slowdown in US consumer price growth boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders now estimating the probability of a rate cut in September at 93%, up from 73% on Wednesday. In addition, signs of strong summer demand are supporting oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.94%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.55%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 2.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.93%.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.05%, hitting a two-week low, as investors reassessed the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook in light of the yen’s surge. On July 11, the yen rose 2.6% to 157.42 per dollar, which traders attributed to likely government intervention. The Bank of Japan is under pressure to raise interest rates again in July to defend its currency and narrow the gap between domestic and foreign yields. The Central Bank is also expected to announce its plans to reduce bond purchases this month after it met with market participants this week to determine the actual pace of bond buying cuts.

China’s trade surplus in June 2024 rose to 99.05 billion US dollars from 69.80 billion US dollars in the same period a year earlier, beating market expectations of 85 billion US dollars. It was the biggest trade surplus since July 2022, as exports rose and imports fell. Exports rose by 8.6% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 15 months and beating estimates for 8% growth, while imports unexpectedly fell 2.3%, missing estimates for 2.8% growth and after rising 1.8% in May.

Singapore’s economy grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2024, beating market estimates that expected 2.7% growth. The preliminary estimate also followed an upwardly revised 3% growth in the previous quarter, the fastest growth rate in a year and a half.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,584.54 −49.37 (−0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,753.75 +32.39 (+0.082%)

DAX (DE40) 18,534.56 +127.34 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,223.34 +29.83 (+0.36%)

USD Index 105.01 −0.12 (−0.11%)

Important events today:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jul

Are You a “Betting Man”? Then Take a Look — and Make Your Bet.

By Murray Gunn | Global Rates & Money Flows editor

I have spent much of my career among professional traders. By nature, traders are a betting crowd; if they can’t bet on the markets, they’ll bet on something else.

A monthly highlight on trading floors was always the ‘NFP Sweepstake,’ where everyone would pay some money to guess what the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number would be. The winner, who would take the whole pot, was the guess that came closest to the actual number. A good strategy, therefore, would be to try and be either the highest or lowest number because, sometimes, NFPs do surprise.

That was the case last month when NFPs came in showing that 272,000 jobs were added in May compared with a consensus forecast of 185,000. Momentum in the U.S. labor market is waning, though. From January 2021 to December 2022 the average NFP number was 490,000 jobs added each month. From January 2023, the monthly average has halved to 241,000. The unemployment rate has increased from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.1% now and jobless claims are rising.

The chart above shows annualized percentage change in those in the U.S. engaged in full-time employment. Full-time employment has been shrinking on an annualized basis since February this year, and you can see that every one of the eight recessions (the shaded areas on the chart) since 1970 has been accompanied by a negative reading. On three occasions, this metric has dipped into negative territory without a recession occurring.

I’m no expert bookie, but it seems to me that those odds tilt towards favoring a recession. What do you think?

The U.S. jobs market remains the most important economic variable on the planet given the importance of the U.S. consumer to economic activity. Regardless of where in the world you live or invest, staying ahead of the trends in the U.S. stock market and economy is worth your while. Elliott Wave International has a free must-read issue on U.S stocks that I suggest you check out, on www.elliottwave.com.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jul

Week Ahead: EU50 waits for directional spark

By ForexTime

FXTM’s EU50 ↑ 10% since start of 2024

EU data + ECB = big price swings?

Over past year ECB decision triggered moves of ↑ 1.5% & ↓ 0.3%

Index trading 3% away from YTD high at 5142.3

Technical levels = 5010 & 4880

Watch out for fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead due to key data, corporate earnings, and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting:

Monday, 15th July

CN50: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
EU50: Eurozone industrial production
US500: US Empire State Manufacturing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
US30: Goldman Sachs earnings

Tuesday, 16th July

GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
EU50: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations
JP225: Japan tertiary industry index
US500: US retail sales, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, 17th July

EU50: Eurozone CPI
SG20: Singapore trade
UK100: UK CPI
US500: US industrial production, Fed Beige book
NETH25: ASML earnings

Thursday, 18th July

AU200: Australia unemployment
EU50: ECB rate decision
UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
US500: US initial jobless claims, Fed speech
NAS100: Netflix earnings
TWN: TSMC earnings

Friday, 19th July

JP225: Japan CPI
US500: New York Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speech

Our spotlight shines on FXTM’s EU50 which has been trapped within a weekly range since mid-February 2024. Still, the index has gained 10% year-to-date and is 3% away from its 2024 high at 5142.3.

Note: FXTM’s EU50 tracks the underlying Euro Stoxx 50 index – which represents the performance of the 50 largest blue-chip companies operating within eurozone nations.

With all the above discussed, here are 3 forces that may rock the EU50 in the week ahead:

1) Key EU data

Economic releases from Europe may impact bets around when the ECB cuts rates again in 2024.

Keep an eye on the latest Eurozone industrial production, the final print of June’s inflation reading along with the ZEW survey expectations from Germany – the largest economy in Europe. While the incoming data is unlikely to impact what decision the ECB makes this month, it could expectations for September and beyond.

Should overall European data support the argument for lower rates, this could push the EU50 higher.

A positive set of economic reports or an unexpected upward revision to the CPI print could pull the EU50 lower.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Germany ZEW survey has triggered upside moves as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) ECB rate decision

Markets widely expect the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday 18th July.

In June, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 but adopted a cautious stance on future moves. Much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after the recent political drama in Europe.

Traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September with a move fully priced in by October.

The EU50 could receive a boost if the ECB signals that a September rate cut is on the cards.

If the ECB sounds more hawkish than expected or offers little insight on future moves, the EU50 may dip.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the ECB rate decision has triggered upside moves as much as 1.5% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain trapped within a wide range on the daily charts with the first layer of support at 4880 and resistance at 5010. The candlesticks are trading marginally below the 50 and 100-day SMA as of writing with the MACD below zero.

A solid breakout above 5010, may open a path towards 5115 and 5142. Should bulls push beyond the 2024 high, this could trigger a move toward the next psychological point at 5150.

Sustained weakness below 5010, could see bears challenge 4880 and 4835.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News Opinions

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