InvestMacro

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (188,386 contracts) with the Fed Funds (130,472 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (40,384 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-53,266 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-47,738 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-32,038 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-11,936 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-1,539 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (79 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (63 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (23.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (63.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (38.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (79.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (69.5 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (29 percent) and the Fed Funds (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (13.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-13.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-42.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-33.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-2.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-30.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (19.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 367,148 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 188,386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	55.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	58.8	0.4
– Net Position:	367,148	-363,366	-3,782
– Gross Longs:	1,802,125	5,707,451	32,720
– Gross Shorts:	1,434,977	6,070,817	36,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	20.8	85.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-29.1	-0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -80,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 130,472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -211,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	71.9	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	66.3	2.3
– Net Position:	-80,844	92,469	-11,625
– Gross Longs:	192,047	1,202,589	26,862
– Gross Shorts:	272,891	1,110,120	38,487
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.6	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-9.3	-30.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,105,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,103,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	75.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	54.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,105,211	934,125	171,086
– Gross Longs:	716,311	3,346,171	293,877
– Gross Shorts:	1,821,522	2,412,046	122,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	70.9	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-12.7	6.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,688,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -32,038 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,656,038 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	82.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	61.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-1,688,076	1,437,325	250,751
– Gross Longs:	578,521	5,469,735	485,210
– Gross Shorts:	2,266,597	4,032,410	234,459
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.8	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	8.9	14.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -776,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -47,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -728,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.7	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	65.7	6.7
– Net Position:	-776,208	638,673	137,535
– Gross Longs:	441,721	3,848,733	464,829
– Gross Shorts:	1,217,929	3,210,060	327,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.6	75.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.6	47.5	20.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -164,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -53,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,991 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.6	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	66.9	11.7
– Net Position:	-164,257	185,201	-20,944
– Gross Longs:	258,600	1,603,637	226,243
– Gross Shorts:	422,857	1,418,436	247,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	55.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-8.4	24.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -57,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	66.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	68.3	7.9
– Net Position:	-57,855	-36,172	94,027
– Gross Longs:	339,271	1,169,182	233,863
– Gross Shorts:	397,126	1,205,354	139,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	14.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	-4.7	16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -376,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 40,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -417,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	79.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	58.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-376,662	357,685	18,977
– Gross Longs:	159,683	1,330,555	174,995
– Gross Shorts:	536,345	972,870	156,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	70.1	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	5.4	-2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (60,473 contracts) with Soybeans (8,772 contracts), Soybean Meal (5,397 contracts), Wheat (2,873 contracts) and Lean Hogs (705 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-14,702 contracts), Soybean Oil (-12,288 contracts), Sugar (-10,664 contracts), Cotton (-4,567 contracts), Coffee (-3,809 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,773 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybeans (9 percent), Sugar (10 percent), Lean Hogs (13 percent), Corn (15 percent) and Soybean Oil (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (14.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.8 percent)
Sugar (9.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (83.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (9.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (6.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (21.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (45.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (42.9 percent)
Live Cattle (27.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (43.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (13.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (12.4 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.8 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.5 percent)
Wheat (39.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (37.5 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Lean Hogs (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (3 percent), Corn (2 percent) and Cocoa (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-11 percent), Coffee (-11 percent) and Soybeans (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.3 percent)
Sugar (-3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.4 percent)
Soybeans (-11.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-22.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-26.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.5 percent)
Cotton (-11.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.9 percent)
Cocoa (1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.9 percent)
Wheat (2.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-11.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -151,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 60,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -212,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	44.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	33.7	10.7
– Net Position:	-151,969	173,479	-21,510
– Gross Longs:	320,403	705,379	147,095
– Gross Shorts:	472,372	531,900	168,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	85.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-2.7	3.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	55.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	57.7	8.2
– Net Position:	25,815	-20,274	-5,541
– Gross Longs:	186,989	443,364	60,431
– Gross Shorts:	161,174	463,638	65,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.2	12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	6.2	-15.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	41.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	67.0	2.4
– Net Position:	59,207	-61,771	2,564
– Gross Longs:	72,262	101,059	8,330
– Gross Shorts:	13,055	162,830	5,766
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.6	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	11.6	-6.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -159,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	61.5	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	39.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-159,128	173,211	-14,083
– Gross Longs:	111,259	484,227	41,958
– Gross Shorts:	270,387	311,016	56,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	91.6	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	13.6	-18.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	53.1	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	44.9	4.8
– Net Position:	-49,166	45,285	3,881
– Gross Longs:	115,500	292,565	30,057
– Gross Shorts:	164,666	247,280	26,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	85.3	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-14.7	12.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	43.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	55.0	5.6
– Net Position:	43,091	-61,351	18,260
– Gross Longs:	125,998	223,119	47,203
– Gross Shorts:	82,907	284,470	28,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.1	53.4	37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.2	15.9	30.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	32.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	44.1	14.1
– Net Position:	45,272	-33,544	-11,728
– Gross Longs:	108,655	94,052	28,946
– Gross Shorts:	63,383	127,596	40,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	81.7	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	8.6	-19.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 705 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	39.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.3	29.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-21,490	25,276	-3,786
– Gross Longs:	87,503	95,087	14,748
– Gross Shorts:	108,993	69,811	18,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	90.3	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-2.5	-11.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	50.8	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	31.2	6.5
– Net Position:	-41,908	44,447	-2,539
– Gross Longs:	60,131	115,178	12,254
– Gross Shorts:	102,039	70,731	14,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.5	-4.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.1	35.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	62.5	4.3
– Net Position:	31,097	-37,073	5,976
– Gross Longs:	49,602	48,710	11,944
– Gross Shorts:	18,505	85,783	5,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	54.9	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-1.7	-0.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	28.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-40,385	46,947	-6,562
– Gross Longs:	122,142	167,818	30,313
– Gross Shorts:	162,527	120,871	36,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	61.6	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	0.3	-22.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

10 Aug

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & S&P 500

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & S&P 500

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (31,390 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (22,034 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (10,189 contracts), the VIX (6,108 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (2,136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,360 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-6,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (83 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (70 percent) and VIX (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (83.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (65.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (27 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (27.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (11.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	51.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	38.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-43,545	55,847	-12,302
– Gross Longs:	99,536	231,326	28,694
– Gross Shorts:	143,081	175,479	40,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	40.9	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-8.5	-48.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	69.5	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	75.3	8.2
– Net Position:	33,990	-118,575	84,585
– Gross Longs:	326,376	1,407,615	250,827
– Gross Shorts:	292,386	1,526,190	166,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	23.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-10.0	-10.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	57.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	66.1	14.7
– Net Position:	7,369	-7,321	-48
– Gross Longs:	21,484	48,536	12,361
– Gross Shorts:	14,115	55,857	12,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.3	27.6	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-8.7	-10.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	60.0	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	72.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,611	-31,501	18,890
– Gross Longs:	50,888	149,544	43,363
– Gross Shorts:	38,277	181,045	24,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	18.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-14.5	15.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.9	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	76.4	5.0
– Net Position:	-2,595	-6,502	9,097
– Gross Longs:	70,303	320,588	30,609
– Gross Shorts:	72,898	327,090	21,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	16.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-32.2	9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	63.0	24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	56.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-1,727	889	838
– Gross Longs:	1,625	8,358	3,278
– Gross Shorts:	3,352	7,469	2,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	32.7	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-21.1	-2.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	86.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-21,455	15,280	6,175
– Gross Longs:	31,139	378,833	10,919
– Gross Shorts:	52,594	363,553	4,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	52.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-2.7	-3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

09 Aug

The Bank of Mexico unexpectedly cut its interest rate. China’s consumer inflation is on the rise

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 1.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 2.87% on Thursday. Stocks rose on Thursday after the weekly number of US initial jobless claims fell more than expected, indicating the strength of the labor market and easing economic concerns following last Friday’s weaker-than-expected July payrolls report. In addition, chip stocks recovered some of Wednesday’s losses and rallied sharply on Thursday, boosting the overall market.

Bitcoin rose more than 10% and surpassed the $61,000 mark, hitting a one-week high. Earlier this week, bitcoin fell to nearly $49,000 as fears of a US recession and the unwinding of yen deals triggered a global sell-off in risky assets. Cryptocurrencies and other risk assets are gradually returning, as analysts say the sell-off was an overreaction. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also seen massive inflows in recent sessions after Morgan Stanley allowed financial advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to clients.

On Thursday, analysts expressed shock over the Mexican central bank’s decision to cut interest rates on the same day that official data showed a sharp rise in domestic inflation. The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to 10.75% in August 2024, defying market expectations amid ongoing economic concerns. Global economic growth is expected to slow, and inflation in advanced economies is generally expected to decline. There was significant market volatility in Mexico, driven by the depreciation of the peso (USD/MXN) and rising government bond yields. Meanwhile, annual core inflation rose from 5.10% in June to 5.57% in July, mainly due to non-core inflation, while core inflation declined from 4.05% to 4.00%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.37%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.26%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.27% on Thursday.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices eased losses and are trading near $2.1/MMBtu after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected increase in storage inventories. The US utilities added 21 billion cubic feet of gas to storage last week, slightly below the market forecast of 22 billion cubic feet. According to the report, gas in storage is 14.9% above the 5-year average, down from 39% in March and 19% in June. Meanwhile, major US natural gas producers are planning further production cuts in the second half of 2024

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.74%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up 0.08%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.23%. Hong Kong stocks soared nearly 2% in early trading on Friday, rising for a third day as investors reacted to fresh data from China. Consumer prices in the country rose to 0.5% y/y in July, beating forecasts of 0.3% amid Beijing’s efforts to stimulate consumption. Meanwhile, producer prices fell by 0.8%, below the forecast of a 0.9% drop. In addition, there were signs that some global investors viewed China’s markets as a safe haven after Monday’s sell-off.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.66, hitting a two-week high, as easing fears of a US recession spurred gains in risk assets. The Australian dollar received support from hawkish central bank statements. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michelle Bullock said they would not hesitate to raise interest rates again to fight inflation. She warned that Australia’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain and that the Board should remain vigilant against upside risks to inflation.

A summary of views from the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting showed that some members favored raising rates further, with one saying they should eventually be brought to at least 1 percent.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,199.50 −40.53 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,763.45 −234.21 (−0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 17,615.15 +260.83 (+1.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,166.88 +140.19 (+1.75%)

USD Index 103.20 +0.24 (+0.23%)

Important events today:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Aug

EUR/USD Stabilises Amid Fed Speculation and Absence of Major Economic Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has found some stability at around 1.0921 this Friday, following a week marked by high volatility. Market participants have been adjusting their positions in response to speculations concerning the US economy’s potential rapid recession and subsequent expectations about the Federal Reserve’s response.

The broader market sentiment has increasingly leaned towards anticipating a significant rate cut by the Fed in September, possibly by 50 basis points. However, the validity of these expectations remains to be seen as the situation evolves.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, recently emphasised that the Federal Reserve’s mandate is not to respond to stock market fluctuations but to focus on its dual objectives of maximising employment and achieving price stability. He also reiterated that the Fed has set specific economic criteria to justify a rate reduction. Goolsbee’s remarks seem to have calmed some of the more erratic market movements.

With no significant economic data released this week, traders have been left to navigate the market based on speculative movements and minor indicators.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The H4 EUR/USD chart shows that the pair has completed an initial downward movement targeting the 1.0880 level, followed by a corrective phase towards 1.0944. Should this correction complete, a further decline to 1.0888 is anticipated. Breaking below this level could extend the downward trajectory towards 1.0830. The bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero but trending downwards, indicating a potential continuation of the decline.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation pattern around the 1.0913 mark. An upward breakout is expected, potentially driving the pair towards 1.0944, which is seen as a corrective move against the previous downtrend. Upon completion of this correction, the focus will shift to a new declining phase targeting 1.0888. This technical perspective is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised to move from below the 80 level to around 20, suggesting an impending downward momentum.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair shows signs of temporary equilibrium as it navigates through speculative currents and awaits clearer directional cues from upcoming economic data or Federal Reserve communications.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Aug

Week Ahead: US30 index still sensitive to US recession fears

By ForexTime

Markets still obsessed with deciphering US recession risks
Home Depot, Walmart earnings offer pulse on US economy
Latest US inflation data also holds clues about Fed’s next moves
Economically-sensitive US30 stock index ready to punch above 50-day SMA resistance

Markets are still obsessed about the risks of a US recession.

Traders and investors worldwide are still licking their wounds from the recent plunge across global financial markets, following last Friday’s unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate (4.3% in July).

Against such a backdrop, next week’s US economic data and US earnings releases could shift market expectations surrounding a US recession, and whether the Fed will be forced to cut rates aggressively.

Tuesday, August 13

JPY: Japan July PPI
AUD: Australia August consumer and business confidence
GBP: UK June unemployment, July jobless claims
GER40 index: Germany August ZEW survey expectations
ZAR: South Africa 2Q unemployment
USD index: US July PPI; speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic
US30 index: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, August 14

NZD: RBNZ rate decision
UK100 index: UK July CPI
EU50 index: Eurozone 2Q GDP, June industrial production
ZAR: South Africa June retail sales
US500 index: US July CPI

Thursday, August 15

JP225 index: Japan 2Q GDP
AU2000 index: Australia July unemployment
CNH: China July home prices, industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate
GBP: UK 2Q GDP; June industrial production, trade balance
NOK: Norway rate decision
RUS2000 index: US weekly initial jobless claims; July retail sales and industrial production
US30 index: Walmart earnings; speeches by St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker
CHINAH index: Earnings from Alibaba, JD.com

Friday, August 16

SG20 index: Singapore July exports
GBP: UK July retail sales
TWN index: Taiwan 2Q GDP
US400 index: US August consumer sentiment; speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

For the coming week, we focus on the US30 stock index.

After all, the share prices of the 30 companies contained within this stock index are deemed to be more reflective of real economic conditions (as opposed to say growth/tech/AI stocks).

Hence, the imminent earnings releases by these major companies, along with the incoming top-tier economic data, could contribute to outsized trading opportunities for this stock index next week.

The events highlighted below may well determine if the US30 index can conquer its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance that it’s battled with all week long.

1) Tuesday, August 13th: Home Depot earnings (before US markets open)

The Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating over 2,300 stores across North America (including Canada and Mexico).

In other words …

Home Depot’s earnings are reflective of the strength of consumer spending.

Markets are set to interpret this retail giant’s earnings for signs if consumer spending is still resilient, or whether households are already reeling from high interest rates, persistent inflation, and recession fears.

Depending on the earnings release, markets forecast this stock could move by 5.5%, either up or down, once US markets reopen on Tuesday, just hours after the company’s earnings are released.

Home Depot accounts for 5.8% of the US30 index, making it the 4th biggest stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index / Dow / FXTM’s US30 index.

That means the market’s reaction to Home Depot’s earnings could sway the broader US30 index in tandem.

Note that Tuesday also features the release of the US producer price index (PPI) and a speech by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, either of which could also sway the US30 index, in addition to Home Depot’s earnings.

2) Wednesday, August 14th: US July consumer price index (CPI)

The CPI is a widely followed measure of inflation.

And we know that red-hot inflation has been the bane of the Federal Reserve in recent years, though the US central bank has since made substantial progress in quelling it.

However, has it been enough? Or will the Fed be forced to maintain its benchmark rates at its current 23-year high of 5.5%?

Economists predict a soft and manageable uplift to the incoming CPI figures:

CPI month-on-month (July 2024 vs. June 2024): 0.2%
(if so, that would be a return to positive territory from June’s -0.1% month-on-month figure)
CPI core (excluding food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.2%
(if so, that would be slightly higher from June’s 0.1% month-on-month figure)
CPI year-on-year (July 2024 vs. July 2023): 3%
(if so, that would match June’s 3% year-on-year figure)
CPI core year-on-year: 3.2%
(if so, that would be slightly lower than June’s 3.3% core year-on-year figure)

This incoming inflation data would be read as they pertain to the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, given that the US central bank now has to juggle between subduing inflation and not causing too much damage to the US jobs market, now more so in light of the recent surprise jump in US unemployment.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

If the CPI comes in higher than expected, that may force the Fed to hold interest rates higher still while risking more damage to the US labour market.
Should markets then perceive greater odds for a US recession, that could send the US30 index plummeting back below its 100-day SMA and towards its 200-day SMA.

If the CPI comes in lower than expected, that should allow the Fed to lower interest rates in September to shore up support for the US labour market.
If markets then believe that US recession risks are subsiding, that could see the US30 index rejoicing as it punches past its 50-day SMA and perhaps reaching the 40,000 mark.

3) Thursday, August 15th: Walmart earnings (before US markets open)

Walmart is a retail behemoth that serves about 255 million customers per week across some 10,500 stores, drawing over 80% of its revenue from its US customers.

Depending on what Walmart announces, markets forecast this stock could move by 5%, either up or down, once US markets reopen on Thursday, just hours after the company’s earnings are released.

Despite its sheer presence in the physical world, Walmart “merely” accounts for 1.1% of the US30 index.

Still, given how its earnings are reflective of US consumer spending habits, the market may well interpret Walmart’s earnings as an indicator of the US economic outlook.

The shifting odds of a US recession, via Walmart’s earnings, are bound to impact the US30 index’s performance as well.

Note that Thursday also features the release of the weekly US initial jobless claims, as well as July’s retail sales and industrial production data, all of which could sway the US30 index as well, on top of Walmart’s earnings.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

08 Aug

Market “Olympics”: Best-performing financial assets so far in 2024

By ForexTime

US Dollar still reigns, though perhaps not much longer
GBP: best-performing G10 currency vs. USD year-to-date (YTD)
NETH25: FXTM’s best-performing stock index YTD
Cocoa: FXTM’s best-performing commodity YTD
Nvidia: best-performing stock on the S&P 500 YTD
Solana: FXTM’s best-performing crypto YTD

We’re in the final stretch of the 2024 Olympics, set to end August 11th.

The United States is leading the Olympic medals tally after weeks of sporting conquests across disciplines and arenas.

In similar fashion, we scan across global financial markets and highlight the world champions of their respective asset classes (and within the FXTM universe), so far in 2024 (year-to-date).

G10 currency (vs. US dollar):

British Pound

Although GBPUSD is down about 0.3% so far this year, it’s still beating the rest of the G10 pack in terms of being the smallest year-to-date loser against the US dollar. Even the fast-recovering Japanese Yen remains in 6th place.

To be clear, the US Dollar index still boasts a year-to-date gain of 1.77% at the time of writing.

While King Dollar still reigns supreme, its gains may be wiped out over the rest of the year, if the Federal Reserve follows through with the aggressive US rate cuts that markets expect.

If US rates are lowered at a faster pace compared to its G10 peers, that could help push the likes of GBP into a positive year-to-date performance.

Stock Index:

NETH25

FXTM’s NETH25 stock index tracks the performance of the AEX index – the Amsterdam Exchange index.

The AEX index measures the overall performance of the 25 biggest and most actively traded shares on Euronext Amsterdam.

Led by semiconductor giant ASML – Europe’s largest tech company by market cap, also the biggest stock on the AEX index – ASML’s surge has also boosted its host index simultaneously.

Despite falling by as much as 8.9% since mid-July, amid the broader declines for global equities, the NETH25 index is still holding onto much of its gains garnered from earlier this year.

The NETH25 is still up about 11% on a year-to-date basis.

However, those year-to-date gains may be further eroded if there’s further selling across global equities amid fears of a US recession that darkens the global economic outlook, as well as lessened spending on semiconductors by AI-industry players.

Metal/Commodity:

Cocoa

This global commodity still holds a year-to-date advance of 103%, far beating the likes of gold (+16.9% YTD) and US crude oil (+5.1% YTD).

There has been a global shortage of cocoa, as evidenced by US inventories of cocoa beans falling to their lowest level in over 4 years.

However, such gains may not last.

Markets expect a recovery in west African production of cocoa to recover in the months ahead. The global cocoa market is projected to flip from a deficit into a surplus (more cocoa beans supplied than demanded by sweet-toothed consumers) next year.

With markets well aware of this outlook, no surprise that cocoa prices has only managed lower highs since April 2024, though retaining its triple-digit year-to-date gains, for now.

Overall, global commodities, from cocoa to crude oil, may well see further declines if a US recession is confirmed, along with still-sluggish Chinese economic growth, which combined to weigh down the global economy.

US Stock (on the S&P 500):

Nvidia

Much has already been made about how Nvidia has been a star performer on the US stock market in recent years.

It’s been on a seemingly unrelenting quest of posting new record highs at the height of the AI-mania, before crashing back down to earth in recent weeks.

Though having fallen by about 27% since its all-time high set on June 18th …

Nvidia still holds a year-to-date gain of nearly 100%
(99.7% to be more precise, before US markets open on August 8th).

This stock may yet recover back to its record highs, once the ongoing selloff abates.

Wall Street still predicts a 43% upside over the next 12 months, with a target price of $141.35.

If it gets there, that would be a new record high for Nvidia’s stocks in 2025, unless markets believe the artificial intelligence mania has been a lot more hype and its AI-fuelled profits have already peaked.

Cryptocurrency:

Solana

Solana’s year-to-date gains stand at 51.5% at the time of writing, exceeding Bitcoin’s YTD advance of 35%.

Given the respective debuts of Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year, the crypto market’s attentions have now turned to other cryptocurrencies that could be next in the ETF pipeline.

ETFs = Exchange-traded funds, which can be bought and sold like regular stocks on a centralised exchange. ETFs make it easier, and more secure, for investors (both retail and institutional) to gain access to the underlying crypto without having to directly purchase the digital asset.

If the US government turns increasingly pro crypto, especially if we see a return of President Trump to the White House after the November US Presidential elections, then cryptocurrencies stand to be restored to their recent peaks respectively.

Solana bulls (those betting that prices will rise) will be hoping that their favoured crypto could move back closer to the psychologically-important $200 level.

It remains to be seen which specific instrument will sit atop of their respective asset classes by the end of this year.

What’s more certain is that the remaining months of 2024 may yet bring more volatility, in light of heightened geopolitical tensions, fears of a US recession, as well as political uncertainties stemming from the US Presidential Elections.

That should produce large opportunities for traders and investors who remain alert to the macro picture across financial markets.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

08 Aug

RBI kept rates at 6.5%. The Canadian dollar is strengthening due to foreign currency inflows and rising oil prices

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.60%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.77%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.05%. Yesterday, chip stocks gave up early gains and retreated, which had a negative impact on the overall market.

Stocks on Wednesday initially went up on positivity from a rally in Japanese stocks amid dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Uchida, who pledged to refrain from raising interest rates amid volatile markets. Financial markets have been in turmoil since last week, when the BoJ unexpectedly raised interest rates, causing the yen to surge to a 7-month high against the dollar and contributing to a rapid unwinding of yen trading that pulled down risk assets around the world.

Airbnb (ABNB) closed down more than 13% after estimating third-quarter revenue of $3.67 billion to $3.73 billion, below consensus estimates of $3.84 billion, and warning of weaker demand from US vacationers. Illumina (ILMN) closed higher by more than 4% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $1.11 billion, above the consensus prognosis of $1.09 billion.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.37 per US dollar, recovering from an eight-month low of 1.388 hit on August 1, thanks to an improving outlook for foreign exchange inflows and reduced fears of a US recession, which restored global risk appetite. A recovery in oil prices, driven by a sixth consecutive week of declines in US inventories and fears of supply disruptions from the Middle East, further supported the loonie. However, the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and expectations of further easing of up to 150 basis points over the next year will create headwinds for the Canadian dollar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.91% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 2.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.75%.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $75.5 per barrel on Thursday, rising for the third consecutive session, driven by a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories. EIA data for Wednesday showed crude inventories fell by 3.728 million barrels, the sixth consecutive weekly decline, well above the expected 0.4 million barrel drop. However, gasoline and distillate inventories rose over the period.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.25%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting in August 2024 to ensure inflation falls to the medium-term target of 4% while supporting growth, in line with market expectations. The latest move came after annual inflation accelerated to a four-month high of 5.08% in June 2024, driven by rising food prices, but remained within the RBI’s acceptable target range of 2–6% In addition, the Central Bank maintained its economic growth estimate for FY 2025 at 7.2%, keeping inflation expectations at 4.5%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,199.50 −40.53 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,763.45 −234.21 (−0.60%)

DAX (DE40) 17,615.15 +260.83 (+1.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,166.88 +140.19 (+1.75%)

USD Index 103.20 +0.24 (+0.23%)

Important events today:

– Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Aug

Gold (XAU/USD) Recovers Amid Rate Cut Expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold (XAU/USD) prices have rebounded to 2394 USD per troy ounce, paring previous losses as the likelihood of a US Federal Reserve rate cut increases. Market sentiment is increasingly cautious amid recession fears, influencing stock market dynamics and bolstering the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Current market indicators, notably the CME FedWatch tool, suggest an almost certain probability of a rate reduction by the Federal Reserve in September. Such monetary easing typically enhances the allure of gold, which does not offer interest income.

Investor focus is now on upcoming US unemployment claims data, which will provide further insight into employment market conditions. Recent statistics from China revealed that the People’s Bank of China did not purchase gold bullion in July, marking the third consecutive month without an increase in gold reserves. This suggests a shift towards domestic economic stimulation as the Chinese economy faces challenges.

Ongoing tensions in the Middle East also underscore gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

The H4 XAU/USD chart shows a declining trend towards the 2345.00 level, with a local target recently reached at 2364.23, followed by a correction to 2411.00. The market is anticipated to continue this downward trajectory towards 2355.80 before potentially rebounding to 2381.60. A further decline to 2345.00 is likely, aligning with the primary downtrend target. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line trending downwards from above zero.

On the H1 chart, gold is currently consolidating above 2381.60. A downward breakout towards 2355.80 is expected, which would serve as a local target. Subsequent retesting of 2381.60 from below may occur before the downward movement continues to 2345.00. This bearish scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line poised to drop from above 80, suggesting a potential decline.

As investors and traders navigate these dynamics, gold’s status as a hedge against uncertainty remains a key theme in its valuation.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

08 Aug

Verifying facts in the age of AI – librarians offer 5 strategies

By Tracy Bicknell-Holmes, Boise State University; Elaine Watson, Boise State University, and Memo Cordova, Boise State University

The phenomenal growth in artificial intelligence tools has made it easy to create a story quickly, complicating a reader’s ability to determine if a news source or article is truthful or reliable. For instance, earlier this year, people were sharing an article about the supposed suicide of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s psychiatrist as if it were real. It ended up being an AI-generated rewrite of a satirical piece from 2010.

The problem is widespread. According to a 2021 Pearson Institute/AP-NORC poll, “Ninety-five percent of Americans believe the spread of misinformation is a problem.” The Pearson Institute researches methods to reduce global conflicts.

As library scientists, we combat the increase in misinformation by teaching a number of ways to validate the accuracy of an article. These methods include the SIFT Method (Stop, Investigate, Find, Trace), the P.R.O.V.E.N. Source Evaluation method (Purpose, Relevance, Objectivity, Verifiability, Expertise and Newness), and lateral reading.

Lateral reading is a strategy for investigating a source by opening a new browser tab to conduct a search and consult other sources. Lateral reading involves cross-checking the information by researching the source rather than scrolling down the page.

Here are five techniques based on these methods to help readers determine news facts from fiction:

1. Research the author or organization

Search for information beyond the entity’s own website. What are others saying about it? Are there any red flags that lead you to question its credibility? Search the entity’s name in quotation marks in your browser and look for sources that critically review the organization or group. An organization’s “About” page might tell you who is on their board, their mission and their nonprofit status, but this information is typically written to present the organization in a positive light.

The P.R.O.V.E.N. Source Evaluation method includes a section called “Expertise,” which recommends that readers check the author’s credentials and affiliations. Do the authors have advanced degrees or expertise related to the topic? What else have they written? Who funds the organization and what are their affiliations? Do any of these affiliations reveal a potential conflict of interest? Might their writings be biased in favor of one particular viewpoint?

If any of this information is missing or questionable, you may want to stay away from this author or organization.

2. Use good search techniques

Become familiar with search techniques available in your favorite web browser, such as searching keywords rather than full sentences and limiting searches by domain names, such as .org, .gov, or .edu.

Another good technique is putting two or more words in quotation marks so the search engine finds the words next to each other in that order, such as “Pizzagate conspiracy.” This leads to more relevant results.

In an article published in Nature, a team of researchers wrote that “77% of search queries that used the headline or URL of a false/misleading article as a search query return at least one unreliable news link among the top ten results.”

A more effective search would be to identify the key concepts in the headline in question and search those individual words as keywords. For example, if the headline is “Video Showing Alien at Miami Mall Sparks Claims of Invasion,” readers could search: “Alien invasion” Miami mall.

3. Verify the source

Verify the original sources of the information. Was the information cited, paraphrased or quoted accurately? Can you find the same facts or statements in the original source? Purdue Global, Purdue University’s online university for working adults, recommends verifying citations and references that can also apply to news stories by checking that the sources are “easy to find, easy to access, and not outdated.” It also recommends checking the original studies or data cited for accuracy.

The SIFT Method echoes this in its recommendation to “trace claims, quotes, and media to the original context.” You cannot assume that re-reporting is always accurate.

4. Use fact-checking websites

Search fact-checking websites such as InfluenceWatch.org, Poynter.org, Politifact.com or Snopes.com to verify claims. What conclusions did the fact-checkers reach about the accuracy of the claims?

A Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review article found that the “high level of agreement” between fact-checking sites “enhances the credibility of fact checkers in the eyes of the public.”

5. Pause and reflect

Pause and reflect to see if what you have read has triggered a strong emotional response. An article in the journal Cognitive Research indicates that news items that cause strong emotions increase our tendency “to believe fake news stories.”

One online study found that the simple act of “pausing to think” and reflect on whether a headline is true or false may prevent a person from sharing false information. While the study indicated that pausing only decreases intentions to share by a small amount – 0.32 points on a 6-point scale – the authors argue that this could nonetheless cut down on the spread of fake news on social media.

Knowing how to identify and check for misinformation is an important part of being a responsible digital citizen. This skill is all the more important as AI becomes more prevalent.

About the Authors:

Tracy Bicknell-Holmes, Library professor, Boise State University; Elaine Watson, Librarian and Associate Professor, Boise State University, and Memo Cordova, Library associate professor, Boise State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & S&P 500

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Markets are still obsessed about the risks of a US recession.

For the coming week, we focus on the US30 stock index.

The events highlighted below may well determine if the US30 index can conquer its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance that it’s battled with all week long.

1) Tuesday, August 13th: Home Depot earnings (before US markets open)

Home Depot’s earnings are reflective of the strength of consumer spending.

Home Depot accounts for 5.8% of the US30 index, making it the 4th biggest stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index / Dow / FXTM’s US30 index.

2) Wednesday, August 14th: US July consumer price index (CPI)

3) Thursday, August 15th: Walmart earnings (before US markets open)

Despite its sheer presence in the physical world, Walmart “merely” accounts for 1.1% of the US30 index.

The shifting odds of a US recession, via Walmart’s earnings, are bound to impact the US30 index’s performance as well.

We’re in the final stretch of the 2024 Olympics, set to end August 11th.

British Pound

NETH25

Cocoa