12 Aug

European gas prices jump to an 8-month high. Canada’s labor market is cooling down

August 12, 2024

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) was up 0.13% (for the week+1.17%), while the S&P 500 (US500) was up 0.47% (for the week+3.75%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.51% (for the week+6.57%). That day, all sectors ended trading in positive territory except for commodities. Notable highlights included Expedia, whose shares rose by 10.2% after the company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations.

Canada’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.4%, the highest in two and a half years. While the data came in slightly below market expectations, it did indicate a weakening labor market. The cooling labor market, as well as the continued contraction of the manufacturing sector and sluggish economic growth, further fueled expectations of further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.24% (for the week +1.13%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.31% higher (for the week +2.40%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.76% (for the week +2.26%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.28% higher (for the week -0.08%).

Norway’s annualized consumer inflation rate rose to 2.8% in July 2024 from a three-and-a-half-year low of 2.6% in June, which is in line with market expectations. This increases the likelihood that Norway’s Central Bank (Norges Bank) will leave rates unchanged at this week’s meeting.

European natural gas futures are trading near an 8-month high of €40/MWh. They are on track for a 9% weekly gain, driven by concerns over the stability of gas supplies after Ukrainian troops took control of the Suja gas transportation station in Russia’s Kursk region. Despite ongoing conflicts around this key transit point, Russian gas continues to flow through Ukraine. As the gas transit agreement expires at the end of the year, any early disruption could have a significant impact on Central European countries that depend on these supplies.

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Oil prices rose last week as comments from Fed officials about the possibility of a rate cut as early as September eased demand concerns, while fears of widening conflict in the Middle East continue to increase supply risks. For the week, Brent crude rose more than 3.5% and WTI crude rose more than 4%. Concerns about the prospect of recession have subsided, boosting the demand outlook.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.48% over 5 trading days, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 2.08%.

In New Zealand, investors await the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. The Central Bank is expected to keep its monetary rate unchanged at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive time, although concerns about the economy’s strength remain. The latest data showed New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose less than estimated in the second quarter. However, inflation expectations fell to three-year lows in the third quarter, bolstering the case for a rate cut.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.18 per dollar as traders await the release of key economic data from China. Traders are eagerly awaiting data on outstanding loan growth, new yuan loans and M2 money supply for the year to be released today. Industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment rate data are also expected later in the week. This expectation follows last week’s reports that showed an unexpected acceleration in China’s annual inflation rate, which beat market expectations and reached the highest level since February.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,344.16 +24.85 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,497.54 +51.05 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 17,722.88 +42.48 (+0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,168.10 +23.13 (+0.28%)

USD index 103.15 −0.06 (−0.05%)

There are no Important events today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.


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