InvestMacro

01 Oct

Brent: Slips into Q4 on supply fears

By ForexTime

Brent ↓17% in Q3

OPEC+ JMMC, EIA & NFP in focus

Over past year US NFP triggered ↑ 0.4% & ↓ 1.9%

Key level of interest – $70.80

The past few months have been rough and rocky for oil benchmarks.

Crude and Brent shed over 16% in Q3 due to expectations around OPEC+ bringing back production while a slowdown in China rubbed salt into the wound.

Brent monthly

Oil has already entered October on the back foot, falling 1% thanks to the bearish market sentiment.

Many forces are set to influence prices, ranging from China’s stimulus plans, a return of Libya’s oil production, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and bets around lower US interest rates.

This potent cocktail may translate to significant price swings in Q4.

Regarding Libya, the producer is preparing to restore output after a month-long shutdown. This is likely to fuel concerns over supply at a time when OPEC+ may move ahead with planned production increases in December.

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on Wednesday 2nd October is expected to conclude with no policy changes. However, any hints of further delays to the planned production increase beyond December may support oil.

Also, watch out for the EIA data on Wednesday and US jobs report on Friday which could inject oil benchmarks with more volatility.

As covered in our week ahead report, the US jobs report has the potential to impact Fed cut cuts.

Note: Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth, which fuels oil demand. Lower interest rates may also lead to a weaker dollar, which boosts oil which is priced in dollars.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves on Brent of as much as 0.4% or declines of 1.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the technicals…

Prices are under pressure on the daily charts with Brent respecting a bearish channel.

There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. However, daily support can be seen around the $70.80 level.

A solid breakdown and daily close below $70.80 could send prices back toward $68.80 and the levels not seen since December 2021at $67.00

Should $70.80 prove reliable support, this could trigger a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $72.30 and $75.00.

brenttt98

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Opinions

01 Oct

Can NVDA’s Share Buybacks and AI Innovation Drive the Next Rally?

By The Ino.com Team

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has undoubtedly been one of the hottest large-cap stocks this year, surging over 150% year-to-date and more than 195% in the past 12 months. This stellar performance is driven by the massive demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs), which help run and train AI algorithms.

For the second quarter that ended July 28, 2024, Nvidia’s revenue increased 122% year-over-year to $30.04 billion and 15% from the first quarter. This robust growth exceeded analysts’ expectations, who had forecasted around $28.75 billion. NVDA’s Data Center Group (primarily connected to its AI operations) generated $26.30 billion in revenue, resulting in a 16% sequential gain and a triple-digit growth of 154% over the same period last year.

The company’s bottom line remained buoyant, with operating income surging 174% from the year-ago value to $18.64 billion. NVDA’s non-GAAP net income amounted to $16.95 billion or $0.68 per share, compared to $6.74 billion or $0.27 per share in the previous year’s quarter, respectively. The chipmaker is now gearing up for new AI hardware releases based on the Blackwell architecture, which could boost demand in the coming years.

Moreover, it forecasted a revenue of $32.50 billion, plus or minus 2%, for its fiscal third quarter, representing an 81.6% growth from the year-ago quarter. However, this slightly falls short of the analysts’ estimates of $32.91 billion.

Is NVDA’s Buyback a Boost for Earnings or a Sign of Investor Fatigue?

In addition to its strong financials, NVIDIA’s board has approved a massive $50 billion share buyback program. This adds to the $7.5 billion remaining from its previous buyback plan. Share repurchases typically boost earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares, making the stock more attractive to investors.

The company has already returned $15.4 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends during the first half of fiscal 2025. However, despite the strong financial performance and the buyback announcement, NVDA’s stock dropped around 10% after its earnings report. It seems investors had such high expectations that even strong results weren’t enough to impress them.

“Investors want more, more and more when it comes to Nvidia,” said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell. “It looks like investors might not have taken the average of analyst forecasts to be the benchmark for Nvidia’s performance, instead, they’ve taken the highest end of the estimate range to be the hurdle to clear.”

On the brighter side, the company’s upcoming AI-focused chips, particularly the Blackwell architecture, are poised to meet rising demand and could reignite investor confidence. While its production has been slightly delayed, the company plans to ramp up shipments in the fourth quarter, with strong demand already building up.

Alongside Blackwell, Nvidia’s Hopper platform continues to see robust demand, and shipments of its upgraded H200 platform are targeting cloud service providers and large enterprises, with more demand expected in the second half of 2024. Thus, Nvidia still has plenty of fuel left to drive another rally.

Bottom Line

Thanks to the surging demand for its AI platforms, upcoming product launches, and a broadening market, we believe that Nvidia is well-positioned for continued expansion. The recent dip in its share price could simply be a brief pause before the next phase of growth unfolds.

Moreover, analysts remain bullish on the chipmaker’s long-term prospects. Out of 42 analysts that rated NVDA, 39 rated it Buy, while three rated it Hold. The 12-month median price target of $152.44 indicates a 22.9% upside potential from the last closing price. The price targets range from a low of $90 to a high of $200.

Therefore, investors looking for long-term opportunities could consider scooping up the shares of this tech giant before the stock regains momentum.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Can NVDA’s Share Buybacks and AI Innovation Drive the Next Rally?

Opinions Stock Market News

30 Sep

Uranium Co. Acquires Rio Tinto’s Wyoming Assets

Source: Joe Reagor (9/27/24)

Roth MKM raised its target price on Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC:NYSE AMERICAN) after its agreement to acquire Rio Tinto Plc.’s (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTPPF:OTCPK) Wyoming uranium assets for US$175 million in cash.

Roth MKM analyst Joe Reagor, in a research report published on September 25, 2024, reiterated a Buy rating on Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC:NYSE AMERICAN) while raising the price target from US$9.00 to US$9.50. The report follows UEC’s announcement of its agreement to acquire Rio Tinto Plc.’s (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTPPF:OTCPK) Wyoming uranium assets for US$175 million in cash.

Reagor highlighted the significance of the acquisition, stating, “We view this acquisition as an ideal bolt-on for UEC and as such, we are increasing our price target from US$9.00 to US$9.50.” The analyst noted that the acquired assets include the Red Desert project, the Green Mountain project, and the Sweetwater uranium plant, with historical resources of 175 million pounds of uranium.

The analyst emphasized the potential value creation from these assets, explaining, “Given the current resource base is historical, there is potential for UEC to generate shareholder value by converting these resources to a SK-1300 compliant resource, in our view.” Reagor also pointed out the potential for new discoveries and the significance of the Sweetwater plant, stating, “Ultimately, we believe the licensed capacity could be converted to ISR resin stripping and thereby provide UEC with significant production growth potential.”

Regarding UEC’s strategic plans, Reagor noted that the company intends to fund the transaction from its existing liquidity. He added, “We believe UEC’s purchase price for Rio’s Wyoming uranium assets reflects the historical nature of the resources and a lack of recent work on the projects. However, if UEC is able to update the resources to be SK-1300 compliant, they would be worth significantly more, in our opinion.”

Roth MKM’s valuation methodology for UEC is based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis. Reagor explained, “We assign a value of US$974.5 million to UEC’s ISR projects (US$8.5 per pound of resource including the historical resources from Uranium One), US$156 million for the potential to add 52 million additional pounds of ISR resources in Wyoming (US$3.00 per pound), US$246.4 million for its hard rock assets (US$6.00 per pound of resource), and US$69.3 million for the company’s exploration project Oviedo (US$3.00 per pound of the low end of the exploration target).”

The analyst added values for various facilities, assets, and investments, including “US$250 million to the company’s Hobson Facility, US$250 million for the Irigaray facility, US$1.2 billion for the former UEX assets, US$255 million for Roughrider, US$325 million for the Rio Wyoming assets (less US$175 million acquisition cost), and US$38.3 million for its titanium asset.”

In conclusion, Reagor’s sum-of-the-parts analysis led to a total valuation of US$3.9 billion, or US$9.45 per fully diluted share, rounded up to a price target of US$9.50. This represents a potential return of approximately 47% from the current price of US$6.45.

The report also outlined several risk factors, including political risk, commodity price risk, operational and technical risk, pre-revenue risk, and market risk, which could impact UEC’s ability to reach the price target.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Uranium Energy Corp.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Roth MKM, Uranium Energy Corp., September 25, 2024

Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Disclosures: Within the last twelve months, ROTH Capital Partners, or an affiliate to ROTH Capital Partners, has received compensation for investment banking services from Uranium Energy Corp.. ROTH makes a market in shares of Uranium Energy Corp. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Shares of Uranium Energy Corp. may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities.

ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2024. Member: FINRA/SIPC.

Energy Financial News

30 Sep

Oil rises amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. AUD and NZD reached multi-month highs

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.33% (for the week +0.60%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell 0.13% (for the week +0.43%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.13% (for the week +0.50%). The US personal spending and income reports released on Friday were weaker than expected and were favorable to the Fed. In addition, the PCE Core Price Index for August, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, matched expectations, driving bond yields lower and supporting equities. Dovish comments from the Fed on Friday suggest that the Fed will gradually ease monetary policy without taking drastic steps.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily growing on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose 1.22% (+3.77% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.64% higher (+3.89% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.12% (+1.76% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.43% higher (+1.10% for the week).

The Eurozone Economic Confidence Indicator for September fell 0.3 to 96.2, weaker than expectations of 96.5. The ECB’s 1-year Eurozone inflation expectations for August fell to a 3-year low of 2.7% from 2.8% in July, which was in line with expectations. Inflation expectations for 3-year inflation in August declined to 2.3% from 2.4% in July, matching expectations. French Consumer Price Index for September (EU harmonized) fell to 1.5% y/y from 2.2% y/y in August, weaker than expectations of 1.9% and the smallest increase in 3 years.

WTI crude futures rose to $69/bbl on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, driven by concerns over the possibility of supply disruptions amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Concerns over widening conflict in the region intensified after Israel stepped up its bombardment of Lebanon following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also warned Iran, suggesting it could be targeted, further increasing the risk of supply disruptions from the OPEC producer. However, prices continued to be pressured by Saudi Arabia’s plans to increase production later this year, with OPEC+ set to raise output by 180,000 barrels a day in December.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 24.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 15.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.43%.

China’s manufacturing activity contracted less than expected in September, while service sector activity stalled. Meanwhile, a private survey showed an unexpected decline in manufacturing activity and a slowdown in service sector growth. On Sunday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced it would order banks to cut mortgage rates by October 31 amid efforts to support the real estate sector.

Japanese stocks retreated sharply from two-month highs, weighed down by a strong yen rally following the results of last Friday’s election for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was seen as less dovish than his rival Sanae Takaichi, won the leadership of Japan’s ruling party, effectively making him the next prime minister. Meanwhile, data released today showed that retail sales in Japan rose more than expected in August, while industrial production was weaker than expected.

The Australian dollar rose to $0.69 on Monday, hitting its highest level since February 2023, as China’s economic stimulus measures boosted demand prospects in Australia’s largest trading partner, driving up commodity prices and commodity-linked currencies. The Australian dollar also benefited from general dollar weakness as soft US economic data reinforced expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.637, reaching its strongest level since July 2023. The kiwi was supported by a rise in New Zealand business confidence in September, which rose to its highest level since April 2014. In addition, consumer confidence rose for the third consecutive month and reached the highest level since January 2022. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates again in October, with a 67% chance of a half-point rate cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,738.17 −7.20 (−0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,313.00 +137.89 (+0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 19,473.63 +235.27 (+1.22%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,320.76 +35.85 (+0.43%)

USD index 100.34 −0.04 (−0.04%)

News feed for: 2024.09.30

Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 15:50 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US Fed Chair Powell Speaks (m/m) at 20:55 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

30 Sep

Australian Dollar Reaches 19-Month High Boosted by Chinese Economic Stimulus and Weaker US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair climbed to 0.6922 on Monday, marking its highest point since February 2023. This surge was primarily triggered by China’s announcement of economic stimulus measures, which is significant given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner. Such support for the Chinese economy will likely increase demand for commodities and bolster major currencies tied to trade with China.

Additionally, the Australian dollar has benefited from the recent weakness in the US dollar, spurred by disappointing economic data from the US. This has heightened market expectations that the Federal Reserve will persist with rapid interest rate cuts.

At its September meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain its interest rate at 4.35% per annum, suggesting that the current monetary policy might remain unchanged for some time. The RBA’s cautious approach reflects its strategy of closely monitoring inflation and employment trends without immediate concern about aligning its pace with other global central banks.

This week is set to be significant for the Australian dollar. Australia is scheduled to release data on retail sales, construction, and various trade indicators, which could influence the currency’s trajectory.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD market is extending the fifth wave of growth, with a consolidation range forming around the 0.6925 level. There is potential for an upward break targeting 0.6983. After reaching this level, a corrective movement to retest 0.6925 may occur. If the bullish momentum continues, the next wave could reach 0.7033. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line well above zero and upwards.

On the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has achieved a growth wave up to 0.6926 and is now consolidating just below this level. If the pair exits this range downward, a correction to 0.6877 could be expected. Conversely, a breakout above could extend the uptrend towards 0.6982, potentially reaching 0.7033. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80 and trending downward, suggests a short-term pullback might occur before further advances.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Sep

US Dollar Index Speculator bets drop for 2nd week to lowest since April

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (28,874 contracts) with the British Pound (24,013 contracts), the Japanese Yen (9,171 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (7,561 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,703 contracts), the EuroFX (2,052 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (432 contracts) recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Brazilian Real (-4,956 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,182 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-839 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-573 contracts) round out the lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets drop for 2nd week to lowest since April

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions declined for a second straight week and for sixth time out of the past ten weeks this week. This recent weakness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at just a total of +959 contracts) to the lowest level since April 30th, a span of 21 weeks.

The Dollar Index has been under pressure with the US Federal Reserve reducing interest rates by 50 basis points at the last central bank meeting to bring the current rate to a range of 4.75-5.00 percent. The CME Fedwatch tool shows at the current time, there is a 53.3 percent probability outlook that the Fed will cut the rate by another 50 basis points at the November 7th meeting while there is a 46.7 percent probability outlook of a 25 basis point reduction.

The US Dollar Index is currently at significant price levels and closed this week at 100.11. The 100.00 level has been a major support and resistance level in the past and also coincides with the 200-week moving average which is currently right around the 100.40 level. The Dollar Index has not traded consistently below the 200-week MA since 2021. A break below the 100.00 would see the 99.00 level come immediately into play which is also where the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement support level resides (from the January 2021 bottom to September 2022 high). Needless to say, these will likely be some important weeks coming for the USD and its future direction.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large speculators) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). CFTC criteria here.

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (75 percent), Swiss Franc (62 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the 3-Year strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the Brazilian Real (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Mexican Peso (38 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (7.9 percent)
EuroFX (50.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (50.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (75.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (64.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (61.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (66.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (81.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (38.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (37.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (35.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (16.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (43.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.8 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (51 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (26 percent), the EuroFX (19 percent) and the British Pound (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-37.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-30.6 percent)
EuroFX (19.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (10.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (51.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (28.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-28.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.1	25.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	22.1	14.6
– Net Position:	959	899	-1,858
– Gross Longs:	16,524	6,885	2,097
– Gross Shorts:	15,565	5,986	3,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	100.0	3.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	37.0	-4.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 71,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	55.9	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	72.5	6.8
– Net Position:	71,698	-112,828	41,130
– Gross Longs:	187,795	379,577	87,312
– Gross Shorts:	116,097	492,405	46,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	47.0	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-22.0	32.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 86,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.7	20.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	62.3	9.4
– Net Position:	86,992	-104,383	17,391
– Gross Longs:	155,325	52,374	40,935
– Gross Shorts:	68,333	156,757	23,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	19.9	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-18.3	14.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	28.2	19.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	65.5	14.2
– Net Position:	66,011	-77,508	11,497
– Gross Longs:	104,690	58,606	40,901
– Gross Shorts:	38,679	136,114	29,404
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-19.8	26.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -19,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	64.1	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	28.8	25.9
– Net Position:	-19,290	21,396	-2,106
– Gross Longs:	7,501	38,884	13,588
– Gross Shorts:	26,791	17,488	15,694
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	34.4	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-8.0	11.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	71.8	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	43.8	12.0
– Net Position:	-65,589	59,746	5,843
– Gross Longs:	25,305	153,065	31,425
– Gross Shorts:	90,894	93,319	25,582
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	40.8	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.1	-49.9	21.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 28,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	33.1	19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.8	35.8	10.9
– Net Position:	-11,248	-4,644	15,892
– Gross Longs:	81,924	58,488	35,139
– Gross Shorts:	93,172	63,132	19,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	16.0	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-36.5	60.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 432 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	41.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	43.1	6.2
– Net Position:	-1,458	-928	2,386
– Gross Longs:	26,475	22,853	5,792
– Gross Shorts:	27,933	23,781	3,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	53.9	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-32.4	45.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	56.9	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	65.0	4.2
– Net Position:	12,426	-10,852	-1,574
– Gross Longs:	51,480	76,816	4,127
– Gross Shorts:	39,054	87,668	5,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	63.7	7.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	18.1	-1.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	73.4	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.4	19.8	3.5
– Net Position:	-37,262	36,777	485
– Gross Longs:	13,840	50,396	2,883
– Gross Shorts:	51,102	13,619	2,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	83.7	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-16.3	4.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.1	6.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.2	3.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,546	1,093	453
– Gross Longs:	23,856	2,033	1,433
– Gross Shorts:	25,402	940	980
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.1	92.5	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	45.0	3.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were strongly higher this week as all six metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,448 contracts) with Gold (5,324 contracts), Silver (3,900 contracts), Platinum (2,423 contracts), Palladium (267 contracts) and Steel (137 contracts) rounding out the positive weeks.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (100 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (83 percent) and Steel (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Palladium (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.0 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.8 percent)
Copper (64.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.6 percent)
Platinum (83.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.7 percent)
Palladium (52.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (50.7 percent)
Steel (81.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.3 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (40 percent) and Platinum (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (23 percent), Gold (18 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data with Steel (8 percent) also showing a positive trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.1 percent)
Silver (22.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.3 percent)
Copper (16.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.1 percent)
Platinum (33.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.2 percent)
Palladium (40.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.8 percent)
Steel (8.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 315,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 310,066 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.6	13.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	73.7	5.2
– Net Position:	315,390	-339,706	24,316
– Gross Longs:	387,572	76,713	53,444
– Gross Shorts:	72,182	416,419	29,128
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-17.0	-3.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	19.6	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	74.1	6.9
– Net Position:	62,198	-81,832	19,634
– Gross Longs:	81,029	29,339	30,059
– Gross Shorts:	18,831	111,171	10,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.3	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-16.8	-9.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	30.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	48.3	5.8
– Net Position:	33,130	-39,627	6,497
– Gross Longs:	96,262	69,639	19,602
– Gross Shorts:	63,132	109,266	13,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	36.3	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-13.1	-12.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.3	20.9	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	60.2	5.2
– Net Position:	24,401	-29,540	5,139
– Gross Longs:	46,103	15,715	9,020
– Gross Shorts:	21,702	45,255	3,881
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	12.8	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-29.1	-24.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	55.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.4	20.8	9.2
– Net Position:	-6,733	6,631	102
– Gross Longs:	5,867	10,572	1,856
– Gross Shorts:	12,600	3,941	1,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	51.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.3	-36.0	-21.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	73.0	1.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	59.5	1.0
– Net Position:	-3,786	3,686	100
– Gross Longs:	4,111	19,891	385
– Gross Shorts:	7,897	16,205	285
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.9	18.7	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-8.8	18.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

28 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (68,748 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (39,428 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (37,194 contracts), the Fed Funds (37,053 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (26,227 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7,961 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (7,924 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-42,871 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-20,140 contracts).

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (96 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (88 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 10-Year Bond (6 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (27 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (29 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (100.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (92.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (27.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (28.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (50.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (48.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (30.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (87.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (84.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (28.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (18.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (96.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (94.7 percent)

Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (60 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-44 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-42 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (60.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (50.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (5.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-25.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (23.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (24.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-44.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (38.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (47.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-42.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-45.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (12.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (15.5 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 215,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 37,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,807 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	51.8	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	60.4	2.2
– Net Position:	215,860	-196,844	-19,016
– Gross Longs:	506,691	1,182,918	30,705
– Gross Shorts:	290,831	1,379,762	49,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	60.0	-57.9	-16.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 692,822 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 666,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	52.7	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	59.0	0.3
– Net Position:	692,822	-693,686	864
– Gross Longs:	2,075,175	5,741,888	33,659
– Gross Shorts:	1,382,353	6,435,574	32,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.1	3.7	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-12.8	-0.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -143,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 37,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -180,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	61.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	50.9	0.1
– Net Position:	-143,333	143,950	-617
– Gross Longs:	216,897	827,328	419
– Gross Shorts:	360,230	683,378	1,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	71.7	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.1	42.0	1.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,046,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,026,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	75.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	56.2	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,046,560	860,274	186,286
– Gross Longs:	730,128	3,375,823	288,592
– Gross Shorts:	1,776,688	2,515,549	102,306
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.5	65.1	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-3.0	-5.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,554,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,593,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	82.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	62.0	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,554,432	1,311,411	243,021
– Gross Longs:	587,823	5,292,601	477,254
– Gross Shorts:	2,142,255	3,981,190	234,233
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.2	85.0	98.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-11.4	-0.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,025,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 68,748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,094,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	79.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	61.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-1,025,278	904,645	120,633
– Gross Longs:	467,828	3,925,429	476,178
– Gross Shorts:	1,493,106	3,020,784	355,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	95.0	92.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	24.2	-4.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	73.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	68.6	13.3
– Net Position:	-37,679	95,760	-58,081
– Gross Longs:	333,430	1,551,322	224,447
– Gross Shorts:	371,109	1,455,562	282,528
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	31.1	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-24.2	-13.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -152,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -42,871 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	65.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	62.9	7.9
– Net Position:	-152,582	39,846	112,736
– Gross Longs:	353,820	1,143,670	251,077
– Gross Shorts:	506,402	1,103,824	138,341
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	42.4	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.0	38.4	8.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -266,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -274,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	78.2	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	64.2	9.3
– Net Position:	-266,379	238,947	27,432
– Gross Longs:	178,425	1,337,926	186,442
– Gross Shorts:	444,804	1,098,979	159,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.9	13.1	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.3	-40.0	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

28 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (87,195 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (18,921 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (5,043 contracts), the VIX (1,446 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (822 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets were the Nasdaq-Mini (-3,194 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) for the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (85 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (30 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (98.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (59.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (46.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (84.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (86.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (30.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.1 percent)

Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (25 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (23 percent), the VIX (15 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (36.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-23.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (23.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (11.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (24.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,513 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	40.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	38.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-5,067	6,667	-1,600
– Gross Longs:	76,551	129,988	27,965
– Gross Shorts:	81,618	123,321	29,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	78.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-11.4	-15.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	71.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	74.5	7.9
– Net Position:	-35,753	-59,919	95,672
– Gross Longs:	289,938	1,464,276	256,340
– Gross Shorts:	325,691	1,524,195	160,668
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	31.6	87.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	-1.7	11.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	55.0	17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	76.5	13.1
– Net Position:	15,436	-18,853	3,417
– Gross Longs:	23,223	48,223	14,893
– Gross Shorts:	7,787	67,076	11,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	10.9	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-21.9	5.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	58.4	17.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	71.4	11.5
– Net Position:	16,039	-29,423	13,384
– Gross Longs:	52,615	133,114	39,603
– Gross Shorts:	36,576	162,537	26,219
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	20.2	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-9.0	1.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,986 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	71.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	79.7	4.1
– Net Position:	21,907	-36,441	14,534
– Gross Longs:	85,342	315,752	32,545
– Gross Shorts:	63,435	352,193	18,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	78.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.8	-25.6	19.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,750 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	89.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	83.2	1.2
– Net Position:	-35,707	26,947	8,760
– Gross Longs:	27,798	371,075	13,807
– Gross Shorts:	63,505	344,128	5,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	64.1	60.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-5.6	14.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

28 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were strongly higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (43,133 contracts) with Soybeans (41,207 contracts), Soybean Oil (27,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (19,591 contracts), Lean Hogs (11,770 contracts), Cotton (9,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,609 contracts), Cocoa (2,261 contracts), Wheat (2,099 contracts) and Corn (2,073 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Coffee (-1,609 contracts) which took a breather after hitting a nine-week high in speculator positioning last week.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Wheat

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (93 percent) and Wheat (61 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (53 percent), Soybean Oil (52 percent) and Cocoa (47 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Live Cattle (18 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (25 percent) and the Corn (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (25.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (25.4 percent)
Sugar (42.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.9 percent)
Coffee (92.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybeans (24.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (14.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (53.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (17.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (11.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (40.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.9 percent)
Cotton (17.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.8 percent)
Cocoa (46.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (61.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (59.9 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (37 percent) and Lean Hogs (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (29 percent), Soybean Meal (22 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-0.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only negative trender.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.9 percent)
Sugar (28.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (16.4 percent)
Coffee (9.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (37.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-15.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (31.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.6 percent)
Cotton (15.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.3 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.7 percent)
Wheat (19.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -64,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	43.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	36.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-64,222	102,193	-37,971
– Gross Longs:	326,166	639,476	137,018
– Gross Shorts:	390,388	537,283	174,989
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	76.1	57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-10.1	-18.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 115,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 43,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	53.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	70.6	6.4
– Net Position:	115,383	-140,563	25,180
– Gross Longs:	197,713	431,724	76,902
– Gross Shorts:	82,330	572,287	51,722
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	56.1	52.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.5	-30.9	34.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 68,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	37.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	72.8	2.4
– Net Position:	68,519	-73,178	4,659
– Gross Longs:	82,101	78,942	9,615
– Gross Shorts:	13,582	152,120	4,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	5.5	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.6	20.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -93,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 41,207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -134,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	61.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	47.5	7.7
– Net Position:	-93,431	115,399	-21,968
– Gross Longs:	118,946	522,610	44,414
– Gross Shorts:	212,377	407,211	66,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	77.3	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-16.3	-17.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	49.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	53.8	4.7
– Net Position:	18,398	-22,416	4,018
– Gross Longs:	142,191	267,030	29,483
– Gross Shorts:	123,793	289,446	25,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	51.8	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.1	-34.5	8.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	44.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	60.5	4.9
– Net Position:	62,879	-86,397	23,518
– Gross Longs:	135,949	232,533	49,305
– Gross Shorts:	73,070	318,930	25,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	43.5	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-23.3	23.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	35.9	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	42.8	12.8
– Net Position:	36,107	-21,714	-14,393
– Gross Longs:	110,464	112,852	25,895
– Gross Shorts:	74,357	134,566	40,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	95.5	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	3.1	-12.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,310 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	36.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	38.3	9.0
– Net Position:	8,460	-4,952	-3,508
– Gross Longs:	104,863	100,861	21,438
– Gross Shorts:	96,403	105,813	24,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	57.0	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.9	-37.8	-1.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -16,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	47.6	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	41.3	5.2
– Net Position:	-16,388	14,600	1,788
– Gross Longs:	58,681	109,728	13,821
– Gross Shorts:	75,069	95,128	12,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	81.2	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-15.2	14.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	34.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	63.0	3.1
– Net Position:	36,014	-42,210	6,196
– Gross Longs:	53,115	50,854	10,811
– Gross Shorts:	17,101	93,064	4,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.7	49.7	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.5	6.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	35.7	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	30.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-12,090	17,154	-5,064
– Gross Longs:	121,819	128,935	31,023
– Gross Shorts:	133,909	111,781	36,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	38.1	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-20.0	-2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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