26 Nov

NZD/USD Hits Yearly Low Amid US Dollar Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has experienced a significant decline, touching a low of 0.5841 and reaching a yearly trough of 0.5796. The primary pressure comes from a robust US dollar, bolstered by anticipations of a more stringent tariff regime under US President-elect Donald Trump. Speculations about Trump imposing an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods have particularly impacted the Kiwi, given China’s role as New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

The market pre-emptively reacts to potential US policy shifts, recalling Trump’s previous term characterised by aggressive trade policies. This has cast a long shadow over the NZD, influencing investor sentiment.

The upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on Wednesday is crucial, with expectations leaning towards a 50-basis-point rate cut to 4.25% per annum. This expected move aligns with the RBNZ’s dovish stance from October and could sustain the downward pressure on the NZD.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

H4 chart: the NZD/USD has completed a decline wave, reaching 0.5797, with a subsequent recovery phase targeting 0.5922 underway. After reaching this level, a potential pullback to 0.5860 could establish a consolidation zone around this marker. A break below this range might extend the decline to 0.5777, while an upward breach could pave the way to 0.5977.

H1 chart: the pair is forming an initial growth wave towards 0.5860. Following this target, a retraction to 0.5828 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator supports this currency forecast, indicating a possible downturn from elevated levels and enhancing the likelihood of continuing the downward trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Nov

Svalbard Global Seed Vault evokes epic imagery and controversy because of the symbolic value of seeds

By Adriana Craciun, Boston University 

Two-thirds of the world’s food comes today from just nine plants: sugar cane, maize (corn), rice, wheat, potatoes, soybeans, oil-palm fruit, sugar beet and cassava. In the past, farmers grew tens of thousands of crop varieties around the world. This biodiversity protected agriculture from crop losses caused by plant diseases and climate change.

Today, seed banks around the world are doing much of the work of saving crop varieties that could be essential resources under future growing conditions. The Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway supports them all. It is the world’s most famous backup site for seeds that are more precious than data.

Tens of thousands of new seeds from around the world arrived at the seed vault on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, in mid-October 2024. This was one of the largest deposits in the vault’s 16-year history.

And on Oct. 31, crop scientists Cary Fowler and Geoffrey Hawtin, who played key roles in creating the Global Seed Vault, received the US$500,000 World Food Prize, which recognizes work that has helped increase the supply, quality or accessibility of food worldwide.

The Global Seed Vault has been politically controversial since it opened in 2008. It is the most visible site in a global agricultural research network associated with the United Nations and funders such as the World Bank.

These organizations supported the Green Revolution – a concerted effort to introduce high-yielding seeds to developing nations in the mid-20th century. This effort saved millions of people from starvation, but it shifted agriculture in a technology-intensive direction. The Global Seed Vault has become a lightning rod for critiques of that effort and its long-term impacts.

I have visited the vault and am completing a book about connections between scientific research on seeds and ideas about immortality over centuries. My research shows that the Global Seed Vault’s controversies are in part inspired by religious associations that predate it. But these cultural beliefs also remain essential for the vault’s support and influence and thus for its goal of protecting biodiversity.

The Global Seed Vault gives scientists the tools they may need to breed crops that can cope with a changing climate.

Backup for a global network

Several hundred million seeds from thousands of species of agricultural plants live inside the Global Seed Vault. They come from 80 nations and are tucked away in special metallic pouches that keep them dry.

The vault is designed to prolong their dormancy at zero degrees Fahrenheit (-18 degrees Celsius) in three ice-covered caverns inside a sandstone mountain. The air is so cold inside that when I entered the vault, my eyelashes and the inside of my nose froze.

The Global Seed Vault is owned by Norway and run by the Nordic Genetic Resources Centre. It was created under a U.N. treaty governing over 1,700 seed banks, where seeds are stored away from farms, to serve as what the U.N. calls “the ultimate insurance policy for the world’s food supply.”

This network enables nations, nongovernmental organizations, scientists and farmers to save and exchange seeds for research, breeding and replanting. The vault is the backup collection for all of these seed banks, storing their duplicate seeds at no charge to them.

The seed vault’s cultural meaning

The vault’s Arctic location and striking appearance contribute to both its public appeal and its controversies.

Svalbard is often described as a remote, frozen wasteland. For conspiracy theorists, early visits to the Global Seed Vault by billionaires such as Bill Gates and George Soros, and representatives from Google and Monsanto, signaled that the vault had a secret purpose or benefited global elites.

In fact, however, the archipelago of Svalbard has daily flights to other Norwegian cities. Its cosmopolitan capital, Longyearbyen, is home to 2,700 people from 50 countries, drawn by ecotourism and scientific research – hardly a well-hidden site for covert activities.

The vault’s entrance features a striking installation by Norwegian artist Dyveke Sanne. An illuminated kaleidoscope of mirrors, this iconic artwork glows in the long Arctic night and draws many tourists.

Because of its mission to preserve seeds through potential disasters, media regularly describe the Global Seed Vault as the “doomsday vault,” or a “modern Noah’s Ark.” Singled out based on its location, appearance and associations with Biblical myths such as the Flood, the Garden of Eden and the apocalypse, the vault has acquired a public meaning unlike that of any other seed bank.

The politics of seed conservation

One consequence is that the vault often serves as a lightning rod for critics who view seed conservation as the latest stage in a long history of Europeans removing natural resources from developing nations. But these critiques don’t really reflect how the Global Seed Vault works.

The vault and its sister seed banks don’t diminish cultivation of seeds grown by farmers in fields. The two methods complement one another, and seed depositors retain ownership of their seeds.

Another misleading criticism argues that storing seeds at Svalbard prevents these plants from adapting to climate change and could render them useless in a warmer future. But storing seeds in a dormant state actually mirrors plants’ own survival strategy.

Dormancy is the mysterious plant behavior that “protects against an unpredictable future,” according to biologist Anthony Trewavas. Plants are experts in coping with climate unpredictability by essentially hibernating.

Seed dormancy allows plants to hedge their bets on the future; the Global Seed Vault extends this state for decades or longer. While varieties in the field may become extinct, their banked seeds live to fight another day.

Storing more than seeds

In 2017, a delegation of Quechua farmers from the Peruvian Andes traveled to Svalbard to deposit seeds of their sacred potato varieties in the vault. In songs and prayers, they said goodbye to the seeds as their “loved ones” and “endangered children.” “We’re not just leaving genes, but also a family,” one farmer told Svalbard officials.

The farmers said the vault would protect what they called their “Indigenous biocultural heritage” – an interweaving of scientific and cultural value, and of plants and people, that for the farmers evoked the sacred.

People from around the world have sought to attach their art to the Global Seed Vault for a similar reason. In 2018, the Svalbard Seed Cultures Ark began depositing artworks that attach stories to seeds in a nearby mine.

Pope Francis sent an envoy with a handmade copy of a book reflecting on the pope’s message of hope to the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. Japanese sculptor Mitsuaki Tanabe created a 9-meter-long steel grain of rice for the vault’s opening and was permitted to place a miniature version inside.

Seeds sleeping in Svalbard are far from their home soil, but each one is enveloped in an invisible web of the microbes and fungi that traveled with it. These microbiomes are still interacting with each seed in ways scientists are just beginning to understand.

I see the Global Seed Vault as a lively and fragile place, powered not by money or technology but by the strange power of seeds. The World Food Prize once again highlights their vital promise.The Conversation

About the Author:

Adriana Craciun, Professor of English and Emma MacLachlan Metcalf Chair of Humanities, Boston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
26 Nov

Trump plans to raise tariffs by 10% on goods from China and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.99%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.30%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrials set a new all-time high, and the Nasdaq 100 set a weekly high. Stocks rose on Monday amid optimism that President-elect Trump has picked Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, to be US Treasury Secretary to bring a Wall Street mentality to the role and ease concerns about Trump’s inflationary agenda of tax cuts and tariff hikes. Bessent said he would support Trump’s policies, but his experience as a fiscal hawk indicates he will prioritize economic and market stability and deficit reduction.

Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 4% and topped the list of losers in the Dow Jones Industrials and Nasdaq 100 markets after Amazon.com said it was developing its own artificial intelligence chips. Moderna (MRNA) closed up more than 6% after Jefferies said Robert F. Kennedy’s appointment to the Department of Health and Human Services is unlikely to mean an end to vaccines.

The Dollar Index climbed back above 107 on Tuesday as President-elect Donald Trump stepped up his threats to raise tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, among others, sparking renewed demand for the dollar. Trump said he would impose additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the US, as well as 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.

Equity markets in Europe rallied yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.43%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.03% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.36%. The German IFO Business Climate Index for November fell by 0.8 to 85.7, weaker than expectations of 86.0. ECB Governing Council spokesman Kazaks said yesterday that given the European economy at the moment, another interest rate cut in December should follow. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100% and a 50 bp rate cut at the same meeting by 35%.

Platinum (XPTUSD) prices fell to $950 per ounce, not far from the two-month low of $930 reached on November 13, and followed a general decline in precious metals-related assets as markets reduced their demand for safe-haven assets.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 3% on Monday to settle at $68.90 a barrel following reports that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement. Iran announced plans to expand nuclear fuel production after criticism from the UN atomic watchdog, preparing for potential sanctions under a possible second Trump administration. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Energy Minister said OPEC+ may maintain its current oil production cuts from January 1 as the group continues to delay planned production increases due to demand concerns. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for December 1 and will be held online.

Asian markets traded flat on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 1.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.28%.

Trump confirmed his plans to impose an additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods, adding to fears of global trade tensions. Against this backdrop, the offshore yuan fell to around 7.26 per dollar, nearing its lowest level since late July. Earlier this week, the PBoC kept the MLF rate at 2.0%, injecting 900 billion yuan and withdrawing 550 billion yuan. Last week, the Central Bank also kept the one-year lending rate at 3.1% and the five-year lending rate at 3.6%, indicating a cautious stance on supporting economic growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,987.37 +18.03 (+0.30%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,736.57 +440.06 (+0.99%)

DAX (DE40) 19,405.20 +82.61 (+0.43%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,291.68 +29.60 (+0.36%)

USD Index 106.90 –0.65 (–0.61%)

News feed for: 2024.11.26

  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
25 Nov

Nuclear rockets could travel to Mars in half the time − but designing the reactors that would power them isn’t easy

By Dan Kotlyar, Georgia Institute of Technology 

NASA plans to send crewed missions to Mars over the next decade – but the 140 million-mile (225 million-kilometer) journey to the red planet could take several months to years round trip.

This relatively long transit time is a result of the use of traditional chemical rocket fuel. An alternative technology to the chemically propelled rockets the agency develops now is called nuclear thermal propulsion, which uses nuclear fission and could one day power a rocket that makes the trip in just half the time.

Nuclear fission involves harvesting the incredible amount of energy released when an atom is split by a neutron. This reaction is known as a fission reaction. Fission technology is well established in power generation and nuclear-powered submarines, and its application to drive or power a rocket could one day give NASA a faster, more powerful alternative to chemically driven rockets.

NASA and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency are jointly developing NTP technology. They plan to deploy and demonstrate the capabilities of a prototype system in space in 2027 – potentially making it one of the first of its kind to be built and operated by the U.S.

Nuclear thermal propulsion could also one day power maneuverable space platforms that would protect American satellites in and beyond Earth’s orbit. But the technology is still in development.

I am an associate professor of nuclear engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology whose research group builds models and simulations to improve and optimize designs for nuclear thermal propulsion systems. My hope and passion is to assist in designing the nuclear thermal propulsion engine that will take a crewed mission to Mars.

Nuclear-powered rockets could one day enable faster space travel.
NASA

Nuclear versus chemical propulsion

Conventional chemical propulsion systems use a chemical reaction involving a light propellant, such as hydrogen, and an oxidizer. When mixed together, these two ignite, which results in propellant exiting the nozzle very quickly to propel the rocket.

A diagram showing a nuclear thermal propulsion system, with a chamber for hydrogen connected to several pumps, a reactor chamber and a nozzle that the propellant is ejected from.
Scientists and engineers are working on nuclear thermal propulsion systems that would take hydrogen propellant, pump it into a nuclear reactor to generate energy and expel propellant out the nozzle to lift the rocket.
NASA Glenn Research Center

These systems do not require any sort of ignition system, so they’re reliable. But these rockets must carry oxygen with them into space, which can weigh them down. Unlike chemical propulsion systems, nuclear thermal propulsion systems rely on nuclear fission reactions to heat the propellant that is then expelled from the nozzle to create the driving force or thrust.

In many fission reactions, researchers send a neutron toward a lighter isotope of uranium, uranium-235. The uranium absorbs the neutron, creating uranium-236. The uranium-236 then splits into two fragments – the fission products – and the reaction emits some assorted particles.

Fission reactions create lots of heat energy.

More than 400 nuclear power reactors in operation around the world currently use nuclear fission technology. The majority of these nuclear power reactors in operation are light water reactors. These fission reactors use water to slow down the neutrons and to absorb and transfer heat. The water can create steam directly in the core or in a steam generator, which drives a turbine to produce electricity.

Nuclear thermal propulsion systems operate in a similar way, but they use a different nuclear fuel that has more uranium-235. They also operate at a much higher temperature, which makes them extremely powerful and compact. Nuclear thermal propulsion systems have about 10 times more power density than a traditional light water reactor.

Nuclear propulsion could have a leg up on chemical propulsion for a few reasons.

Nuclear propulsion would expel propellant from the engine’s nozzle very quickly, generating high thrust. This high thrust allows the rocket to accelerate faster.

These systems also have a high specific impulse. Specific impulse measures how efficiently the propellant is used to generate thrust. Nuclear thermal propulsion systems have roughly twice the specific impulse of chemical rockets, which means they could cut the travel time by a factor of 2.

Nuclear thermal propulsion history

For decades, the U.S. government has funded the development of nuclear thermal propulsion technology. Between 1955 and 1973, programs at NASA, General Electric and Argonne National Laboratories produced and ground-tested 20 nuclear thermal propulsion engines.

But these pre-1973 designs relied on highly enriched uranium fuel. This fuel is no longer used because of its proliferation dangers, or dangers that have to do with the spread of nuclear material and technology.

The Global Threat Reduction Initiative, launched by the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration, aims to convert many of the research reactors employing highly enriched uranium fuel to high-assay, low-enriched uranium, or HALEU, fuel.

High-assay, low- enriched uranium fuel has less material capable of undergoing a fission reaction, compared with highly enriched uranium fuel. So, the rockets needs to have more HALEU fuel loaded on, which makes the engine heavier. To solve this issue, researchers are looking into special materials that would use fuel more efficiently in these reactors.

NASA and the DARPA’s Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations, or DRACO, program intends to use this high-assay, low-enriched uranium fuel in its nuclear thermal propulsion engine. The program plans to launch its rocket in 2027.

As part of the DRACO program, the aerospace company Lockheed Martin has partnered with BWX Technologies to develop the reactor and fuel designs.

The nuclear thermal propulsion engines in development by these groups will need to comply with specific performance and safety standards. They’ll need to have a core that can operate for the duration of the mission and perform the necessary maneuvers for a fast trip to Mars.

Ideally, the engine should be able to produce high specific impulse, while also satisfying the high thrust and low engine mass requirements.

Ongoing research

Before engineers can design an engine that satisfies all these standards, they need to start with models and simulations. These models help researchers, such as those in my group, understand how the engine would handle starting up and shutting down. These are operations that require quick, massive temperature and pressure changes.

The nuclear thermal propulsion engine will differ from all existing fission power systems, so engineers will need to build software tools that work with this new engine.

My group designs and analyzes nuclear thermal propulsion reactors using models. We model these complex reactor systems to see how things such as temperature changes may affect the reactor and the rocket’s safety. But simulating these effects can take a lot of expensive computing power.

We’ve been working to develop new computational tools that model how these reactors act while they’re starting up and operated without using as much computing power.

My colleagues and I hope this research can one day help develop models that could autonomously control the rocket.The Conversation

About the Author:

Dan Kotlyar, Associate Professor of Nuclear and Radiological Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions
25 Nov

Fast fashion may seem cheap, but it’s taking a costly toll on the planet − and on millions of young customers

By Paula M. Carbone, University of Southern California 

Fast fashion is everywhere – in just about every mall, in the feeds of influencers on social media promoting overconsumption, and in ads constantly popping up online.

Its focus on the continual production of new clothing is marked by speedy fashion cycles that give it its name. Fast fashion is intended to quickly copy high-end designs, but with low-quality materials, resulting in poorly made clothing intended to be worn once or twice before being thrown away.

One of fast fashion’s leading companies, Zara, has a mission to put clothes in stores 15 days after the initial design. Another, Shein, adds up to 2,000 new items to its website daily.

While others in the fashion industry are working toward more sustainable clothing, fast fashion is focused on profit. The market’s value was estimated at about US$100 billion in 2022 and growing quickly. It’s a large part of the reason global clothing production doubled from 2000 to 2014.

The big winners in this game are the corporations. The industry has a reputation for exploiting workers and for excessive pollution and extraordinary waste. Consumers are pulled into an unhealthy, spiraling pressure to buy more as cheap clothes fall apart fast.

Fast fashion also has a growing impact on the global climate. It is responsible for an estimated 8% to 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and its emissions are projected to grow quickly as the industry expands.

I teach courses that explore fast fashion and sustainability. The industry’s growth seems unstoppable – but a combination of legislation and willpower might just rein it in.

Understanding the harm

About 60% of fast-fashion items are made from synthetic textiles derived from plastics and chemicals that start their life as fossil fuels. When this synthetic clothing is laundered or thrown in landfills to decompose, it can release microplastics into the environment. Microplastics contain chemicals including phthalates and bisphenol A that can affect the health of humans and animals.

Natural fibers have their own impacts on the environment. Growing cotton requires large quantities of water, and pesticides can run off from farmlands into streams, rivers and bays. Water is also used in chemically treating and dyeing textiles. A 2005 United Nations-led report on cotton’s water use estimated that, on average, a single cotton T-shirt requires about 700 gallons (2,650 liters) of water from crop to clothing rack, with about 300 gallons (1,135 liters) of that water used for irrigation.

The chemicals used to process textiles for clothing for the fashion industry also contaminate wastewater with heavy metals, such as cadmium and lead, and toxic dyes. And that wastewater ends up in waterways in many countries, affecting the environment and wildlife.

Fast fashion’s high output also creates literally mountains of waste. More than 90 million tons of textile waste ends up in landfills globally each year, by one estimate, adding to greenhouse gases as it slowly decomposes. Only a small percentage of discarded clothing is recycled.

From fashionista to environmental guardian

In many cultures, people’s self-perception is intimately connected to fashion choices, reflecting culture and alliances.

The allure of buying new items comes from many sources. Influencers on social media play into FOMO – the fear of missing out. Cheap items can also lead to impulse buys.

Research shows that shopping can also create a euphoric sense of happiness. However, fast fashion’s speed and marketing can also train consumers into “psychological obsolescence,” causing them to dislike purchases they previously enjoyed, so they quickly replace them with new purchases.

Famous personalities may be helping to push back on this trend. Social media explodes when a first lady or Kate Middleton, the Princess of Wales, wears an outfit more than once. The movement #30wearschallenge is starting with small steps, by urging consumers to plan to wear every piece of clothing they buy at least 30 times.

Upcycling – turning old clothing into new clothing items – and buying sustainable and high-quality clothes that can last for years is being promoted by the United Nations and other organizations, including alliances in the fashion industry.

Some influencers are also promoting more sustainable fashion brands. Research has shown that peer influence can be a powerful driver for making more sustainable choices. The largest market for fast fashion is Gen Z, ages 12 to 27, many of whom are also concerned about climate change and might reconsider their fast-fashion buys if they recognized the connections between fast fashion and environmental harm.

Some governments are also taking steps to reduce waste from fashion and other consumer products. The European Union is developing requirements for clothing to last longer and prohibiting companies from throwing out unsold textiles and footwear. France has pending legislation that, if passed, would ban publicity for fast-fashion companies and their products, require them to post the environmental impact of their products, and levy fines for violations.

Changes in consumer habits, new technologies and legislation can each help reduce demand for unsustainable fashion. The cost of cheap clothes worn a few times also adds up. Next time you buy clothing, think about the long-term value to you and the planet.

This article, originally published Nov. 21, has been updated to correct the title of Kate, Princess of Wales.The Conversation

About the Author:

Paula M. Carbone, Professor of Clinical Education, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
25 Nov

“Trump trades” and geopolitics are the key factors driving market activity

By JustMarkets

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.97% (week-to-date +1.99%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.35% (week-to-date +1.62%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.17% (week-to-date +1.59%). Investor rotation from technology sectors to economically sensitive sectors such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary contributed to the broader market’s gains. On the economic front, S&P’s US PMI for November rose to 55.3, showing the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.

Mexico’s Q3 2024 GDP grew by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, the fastest pace since Q1 2022, beating estimates of 1%. Mexico’s annual inflation rate fell to 4.56% in mid-November, an eight-month low, down from 4.69% in October and below projections. Despite strong growth supporting gradual rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico, the peso (MXN) is under pressure from the US dollar rally driven by a strong labor market, sustained Fed policy expectations, and speculation about President-elect Trump’s inflationary policies. Reports of the appointment of trade hawk Robert Lighthizer as US Trade Representative and the potential appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State with his hardline stance on Latin America further add to concerns.

Investors who bet on “buying a digital asset and the dollar” after Trump’s victory are still in profit. Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark and is up about 50% since early October, when markets were leaning toward Trump’s election victory. The Dollar Index is up 3.6%. The Mexican peso has lost over 4%, and European stocks are down about 3%. However, resistance to Trump-related trades could increase if equity valuation concerns intensify or geopolitical risks challenge the rally in risk assets.

Equity markets in Europe were rising on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.92% (week-to-date +0.38%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.58% (week-to-date -0.27%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.39% (week-to-date +0.16%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.38% (week-to-date +2.46%). According to the ECB representatives, the European Central Bank’s policy will evolve regardless of what happens in the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg estimates that the Fed will cut rates in December, but policymakers will keep borrowing costs unchanged in January. Meanwhile, the ECB has cut rates three times since June and is expected to continue at its next four meetings.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said on Friday he would reintroduce negative interest rates if necessary, which has weakened the Swiss franc against the dollar and euro. Schlegel said the Central Bank doesn’t like negative rates but could use them if necessary to reduce investor appetite for the safe-haven franc. The SNB has cut the benchmark rate to 1% three times during 2024 and expects further cuts. There is currently a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28% chance of a 50 basis point cut at the Central Bank’s next meeting in December.

WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.6% to $71.2 a barrel on Friday, ending the week up more than 5%, helped by the escalating conflict in Ukraine, which added a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. China unveiled new policies aimed at boosting trade, including support for energy imports, amid concerns over Trump’s potential tariffs.

The US natural gas prices fell to $3.1 per mmbbl after hitting a one-year high of $3.35 in November 21 amid expectations of higher production next year. The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to increase production next year for the first time since the pandemic amid increased export capacity and global demand for US LNG. Nevertheless, prices rose nearly 20% in November as estimates of the colder weather accelerated expectations for the start of the storage withdrawal season.

Asian markets were flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.83%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.87%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.31%.

Japan’s Coincident Economic Index, which includes data such as output, employment, and retail sales, came in at 115.3 for September 2024, slightly below the prognoses of 115.7. Nevertheless, this result has improved compared to the six-month low of 114.0 recorded in August, reflecting a moderate economic recovery.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,969.34 +20.63 (+0.35%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,296.51 +426.16 (+0.97%)

DAX (DE40) 19,322.59 +176.42 (+0.92%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,262.08 +112.81 (+1.38%)

USD Index 107.49 +0.52 (+0.48%)

News feed for: 2024.11.25

  • Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Unemployment Level (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
25 Nov

EUR/USD Amid Slowing European Economy

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

EUR/USD encountered significant pressure, testing a low of 1.0331 before rebounding to 1.0476, as market concerns mount over the potential economic slowdown in Europe and aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Recent business surveys indicating an accelerated economic contraction in Germany and France have starkly dampened the euro’s outlook. Additionally, under the newly elected President Donald Trump’s administration, potential new trade duties from the US threaten to exacerbate Germany’s already fragile economic state. Trump’s protectionist stance could notably impact German industries, intensifying existing internal challenges.

Investors are bracing for a scenario where the ECB might implement rate reductions more swiftly than anticipated. At the same time, the Federal Reserve may hold steady, expanding the interest rate differential unfavourably against the euro.

This backdrop has led to heightened investor nervousness about the euro’s future, with further potential declines in EUR/USD not ruled out amidst ongoing uncertainties regarding the full pricing-in of these expectations.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: the EUR/USD has hit its projected low at 1.0331, subsequently initiating a rebound towards 1.0500. Upon reaching this level, a pullback to 1.0414 may occur. The market may form a consolidation range around 1.0414, with potential upward movements targeting 1.0570 and possibly extending to 1.0655. This EUR/USD outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which suggests an impending rise from below the zero level.

H1 chart: the pair is forming a rise to 1.0500, which is anticipated as an initial target. After this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0414 is expected, suggesting a test from above. The stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, indicating a readiness to descend from a mid-range position towards lower thresholds.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
24 Nov

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (18,034 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (1,803 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-35,120 contracts), the British Pound (-15,735 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,778 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,179 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,377 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-1,177 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-401 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-286 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

USD Index Bets continue divergence, Speculators cut their Euro bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data for the week was the continued divergence in the US Dollar Index price and the US Dollar Index speculator positioning.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the past ten weeks. This is a total decline of -22,923 contracts over the ten-week period and has brought the USD Index positioning to a new multi-year low dating back to March 3rd of 2021.

Despite this recent sentiment deficit, the US Dollar Index (DX) price has continued to go the opposite way of the speculators – which are usually trend-following and buying price on the way up while doing the opposite on the way down.

The DX rose by almost 1 percent this week and has now gained for three weeks in a row as well as for seven increases out of the past eight weeks. The DX broke through the 106.50-107.00 resistance level this week with a high above 108.00 before settling back to close the week at approximately 107.50. This is the highest weekly close since the fourth quarter of 2022. Next up, look for overhead resistance in the 109.00-110.00 areas if the bullish trend continues.

Euro bets drop sharply, exchange rate on the downswing

Euro currency bets dropped sharply by over -35,120 net contracts this week and pretty much erased the gains of the past two weeks (+14,216 contracts on Nov 12th and +28,651 contracts on Nov. 5th). Speculator positioning in the Euro has been volatile in the past few months but overall, bets have been going mostly bearish for the currency. Over the past eleven weeks, Euro net positions have in total dropped by -142,575 contracts and have taken the position from a total of +100,018 contracts on September 3rd to this week’s standing of -42,557 net contracts.

The Euro exchange rate has been taking it on the chin and has dropped by over 1 percent in each of the past three weeks. After ascending to a 2024-high in September at over 1.1200, the Euro has spiraled lower in quick work and closed this week at approximately 1.0420. This is over a 7 percent decrease in just two months. If the currency continues to slide through the 1.0400 resistance, we can look for the 1.0250 level and eventually the Euro could test parity at 1.00 to the US Dollar. The Euro last fell to parity and below in the second half of 2022 with the Euro dropping all the way to the 0.9602 level which marked the lowest level in over two decades.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (99 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (55 percent) and the British Pound (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the EuroFX (3 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent), the Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) and Bitcoin (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.8 percent)
EuroFX (3.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (18.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (54.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (61.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (47.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (25.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (34.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (98.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (97.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (5.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.1 percent)

Brazilian Real tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies and is currently the only positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-38 percent), EuroFX (-34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-1.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.2 percent)
EuroFX (-34.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-26.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-23.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-16.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-33.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-48.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-29.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-37.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (29.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.623.810.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.918.78.3
– Net Position:-2,7131,921792
– Gross Longs:22,6138,8833,891
– Gross Shorts:25,3266,9623,099
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.931.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-1.215.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -35,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.460.611.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.957.48.3
– Net Position:-42,55721,04721,510
– Gross Longs:154,305399,00276,465
– Gross Shorts:196,862377,95554,955
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.396.119.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.435.6-32.6

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.036.512.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.854.113.3
– Net Position:40,315-39,066-1,249
– Gross Longs:101,71380,54728,148
– Gross Shorts:61,398119,61329,397
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.245.859.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.727.4-33.9

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.152.814.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.533.415.7
– Net Position:-46,86849,209-2,341
– Gross Longs:78,973134,06537,427
– Gross Shorts:125,84184,85639,768
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.946.658.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.331.9-8.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -37,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.984.010.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.720.429.7
– Net Position:-37,07152,622-15,551
– Gross Longs:4,03669,4999,009
– Gross Shorts:41,10716,87724,560
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 14.1 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.885.35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.641.5-49.9

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -183,566 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -182,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.982.08.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.627.310.7
– Net Position:-183,566190,676-7,110
– Gross Longs:23,904285,75530,046
– Gross Shorts:207,47095,07937,156
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.794.69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.343.0-29.6

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.735.813.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.350.715.8
– Net Position:31,598-27,106-4,492
– Gross Longs:86,70364,98724,189
– Gross Shorts:55,10592,09328,681
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.713.838.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.313.8-54.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.964.64.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.235.48.5
– Net Position:-18,43821,323-2,885
– Gross Longs:21,76247,0923,323
– Gross Shorts:40,20025,7696,208
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.494.616.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.945.4-64.9

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.550.02.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.557.94.7
– Net Position:14,014-11,007-3,007
– Gross Longs:60,64269,5813,539
– Gross Shorts:46,62880,5886,546
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.363.66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.48.1-9.5

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.032.73.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.024.13.0
– Net Position:-7,2777,003274
– Gross Longs:43,89826,5552,703
– Gross Shorts:51,17519,5522,429
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.255.822.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-2.5-0.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,798 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.64.74.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.71.52.5
– Net Position:-2,0841,294790
– Gross Longs:31,1521,9171,833
– Gross Shorts:33,2366231,043
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.895.768.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.510.528.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
23 Nov

Speculator Extremes: Ultra T-Bonds, AUD, 5-Year & USD Index lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 19th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a positive 24.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -225,304 net contracts this week with an increase by 15,980 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Australian Dollar speculator level is now at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score has tailed off a bit and was -1.3 this week. The speculator position registered 31,598 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 1,803 contracts in speculator bets.

Lean Hogs


The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 34.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 71,982 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,000 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week and continues to see strong speculator sentiment. The Coffee speculator level is at a 93.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a modest change of 6.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 68,918 net contracts this week with a small rise of 450 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 91.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 1.9 this week.

The speculator position leveled at -1,297 net contracts this week with a dip of -489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at the lowest level in 3 years or a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,983,026 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -113,816 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range despite a rising price.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -1.7 this week. The speculator position was -2,713 net contracts this week and had a decrease by -401 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at just 0.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.5 this week. The overall speculator position is standing at -16,138 net contracts this week with a drop of -6,622 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,447,344 net contracts this week with a decline of -23,473 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro


Finally, the Euro speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Euro speculator level is at a 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed a strong negative sentiment at -34.4 this week. The speculator position was -42,557 net contracts this week with a huge drop of -35,120 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
23 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,443 contracts) with Palladium (19 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,403 contracts), Gold (-2,084 contracts), Silver (-1,319 contracts) and with Steel (-489 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Silver (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (70 percent) and Gold (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (74.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.4 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.7 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.8 percent)
Palladium (55.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.7 percent)
Steel (91.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.2 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7 percent) and Steel (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-26 percent), Gold (-17 percent) and Silver (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-24.1 percent)
Silver (-10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (-25.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.8 percent)
Platinum (-2.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.7 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.4 percent)
Steel (1.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 234,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.514.610.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.966.84.9
– Net Position:234,367-262,32227,955
– Gross Longs:309,35473,45952,421
– Gross Shorts:74,987335,78124,466
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.227.971.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.615.07.8

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.724.421.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.58.0
– Net Position:46,323-65,08118,758
– Gross Longs:65,93934,46630,090
– Gross Shorts:19,61699,54711,332
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.722.461.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.612.9-15.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.335.98.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.445.75.2
– Net Position:15,442-21,8426,400
– Gross Longs:87,84280,19818,115
– Gross Shorts:72,400102,04011,715
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.651.656.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.726.3-17.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.318.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.851.63.6
– Net Position:22,676-29,7597,083
– Gross Longs:55,43716,10210,307
– Gross Shorts:32,76145,8613,224
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.626.273.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.32.8-4.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,313 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.147.812.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.816.49.1
– Net Position:-6,2945,696598
– Gross Longs:4,7268,6732,256
– Gross Shorts:11,0202,9771,658
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.944.662.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-8.15.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.972.40.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.568.00.7
– Net Position:-1,2971,23760
– Gross Longs:6,08820,174261
– Gross Shorts:7,38518,937201
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.49.338.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.9-0.9-28.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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