Brent Oil Prices Dip Ahead of Crucial OPEC+ Meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Brent crude oil prices have declined to 71.65 USD per barrel as the commodity market remains tense ahead of this week’s postponed OPEC+ meeting, now rescheduled for Thursday, 6 December. The market is concerned about the direction of future global oil supply amid fears of oversaturation. The prevailing expectation is that OPEC+ might delay its planned increase in oil supply for the third time, reflecting persistent supply uncertainties.

Despite these pressures, there are optimistic signals from the oil sector, particularly China, where a resurgence in production activity is seen as a sign of gradual economic improvement in one of the world’s largest importers of raw materials. This development could bolster the energy sector.

The geopolitical landscape remains mixed, with traders closely monitoring tensions in the Middle East. Any escalation could heighten regional instability and affect the overall oil supply dynamics in these areas.

So far, the recent strengthening of the US dollar has not significantly impacted oil prices. However, future market dynamics could shift as global economic conditions evolve.

Technical analysis of Brent Oil

H4 chart: the market is navigating a broad consolidation range centred around the 73.33 level, with recent extensions downward to 71.55. An upward movement towards 73.33 is anticipated today. Should the price exit this range on the higher side, there may be potential for a growth wave targeting 75.15, potentially extending up to 80.00. The MACD indicator supports the bullish Brent outlook, with its signal line below zero but pointing upwards.

H1 chart: Brent has found support at 71.55, initiating a growth wave towards 73.33. Upon reaching this level, a compact consolidation range might form. A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards 75.15. This potential growth trajectory is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 and trending towards 80.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

AI has been a boon for marketing, but the dark side of using algorithms to sell products and brands is little studied

By Lauren Labrecque, University of Rhode Island 

Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing the way companies market their products, enabling them to target consumers in personalized and interactive ways that not long ago seemed like the realm of science fiction.

Marketers use AI-powered algorithms to scour vast amounts of data that reveals individual preferences with unrivaled accuracy. This allows companies to precisely target content – ads, emails, social media posts – that feels tailor-made and helps cultivate companies’ relationships with consumers.

As a researcher who studies technology in marketing, I joined several colleagues in conducting new research that shows AI marketing overwhelmingly neglects its potential negative consequences.

Our peer-reviewed study reviewed 290 articles that had been published over the past 10 years from 15 high-ranking marketing journals. We found that only 33 of them addressed the potential “dark side” of AI marketing.

This matters because the imbalance creates a critical gap in understanding the full impact of AI.

AI marketing can perpetuate harmful stereotypes, such as producing hypersexualized depictions of women, for example. AI can also infringe on the individual rights of artists. And it can spread misinformation through deepfakes and “hallucinations,” which occur when AI presents false information as if it were true, such as inventing historical events.

It can also negatively affect mental health. The prevalence of AI-powered beauty filters on social media, for instance, can foster unrealistic ideals and trigger depression.

These concerns loom large, prompting anxiety about the potential misuse of this powerful technology. Many people experience these worries, but young women are notably vulnerable. As AI apps gain acceptance, beauty standards are moving further from reality.

Our research finds there is an urgent need to address AI’s ethical considerations and potential negative consequences. Our intent is not to discredit AI. It’s to make sure that AI marketing benefits everyone, not just a handful of powerful companies.

I believe researchers should consider exploring the ethical problems with AI more thoroughly, and how to use it safely and responsibly.

This is important because AI is suddenly being used everywhere – from social media to self-driving cars to making health decisions. Understanding its potential negative effects empowers the public to be informed consumers and call for responsible AI use.The Conversation

About the Author:

Lauren Labrecque, Professor of Marketing, University of Rhode Island

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Donald Trump threatens the BRICS bloc with high tariffs. The Canadian dollar fell after weak GDP data

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.42% on Friday (+2.37% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.56% (for the week +1.48%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.90% (for the week +0.93%). Stocks rose moderately on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials hitting new all-time highs. The gains were driven by lower inflation expectations in the US.

Airbnb (ABNB) shares closed down more than 1% on signs of insider selling after CEO Chesky sold more than $15 million worth of stock on Monday. Boeing (BA) closed up nearly 2% after BOA Aviation agreed to buy 14 Boeing 737-8 airplanes.

On Saturday, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened a bloc of nine countries with 100% tariffs if they acted to the detriment of the US dollar. His threat was aimed at countries in the so-called BRICS alliance, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have applied to join, and several other countries have expressed interest in joining. According to the IMF, the dollar accounts for about 58% of the world’s foreign exchange reserves, and basic commodities such as oil are still bought and sold mostly in dollars. But the dollar’s dominance is threatened by the BRICS countries’ growing share of GDP and the alliance’s intention to trade in non-dollar currencies, a process known as de-dollarization.

Canada’s third-quarter GDP grew at a 1% annualized rate after an upwardly revised 2.2% in the second quarter, which was in line with market expectations but short of the Central Bank’s estimate of 1.5%. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates further next month, although the likelihood of a 50bp cut was reduced after core inflation rose to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September. The Canadian dollar fell above 1.4 per US dollar after the report.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.03% (for the week +0.84%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.78% (for the week -1.29%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.26% (for the week -0.73%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.07% (for the week +0.31%). Eurozone CPI came in at 2.3% y/y in November, matching expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) for November came in at 2.7% yoy, weaker than expectations of 2.8% yoy. ECB expectations for 1-year inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in October from 2.4% in September, stronger than expectations for a decline to 2.3% y/y. Expectations for 3-year inflation for October were unchanged from September at 2.1%, in line with expectations. German retail sales for October fell by 1.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m and the largest decline in 2 years. German unemployment rose by 7,000 in November, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of 20,000. The unemployment rate in November was unchanged at 6.1%, matching expectations.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said the ECB is likely to pursue a more aggressive interest rate cut policy if evidence emerges that US tariffs will lead Europe into recession.

In Switzerland, markets currently give a 72% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 28% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the SNB’s next monetary policy meeting on December 12. The rate cut comes amid slowing inflation, which has been within the SNB’s 0–2% target range for almost 18 months. Switzerland’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.6% in October, the lowest level in more than three years.

Oil prices fell about 3% last week amid easing concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of more supply in 2025, even as OPEC+ is expected to extend production cuts.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.22%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.02%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.51%.

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.55% in November 2024 from 1.71% in the previous month, the lowest since July 2021, but slightly above market projections of 1.5%. The latest result remains within the Central Bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5%. The core inflation rate hit a 16-month high of 2.26%, above estimates of 2.20%.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,032.38 +33.64 (+0.56%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,910.65 +188.59 (+0.42%)

DAX (DE40) 19,626.45 +200.72 (+1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,287.30 +6.08 (+0.073%)

USD Index 105.78 -0.27 (-0.25%)

News feed for: 2024.12.02

  • Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
  • Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Week Ahead: Will US500 stay above 6000 milestone?

By ForexTime 

  • US500 ↑ 5.1% MTD, pushing 2024 gains to almost 26%
  • Posted only 2 negative months in 2024 – April & October
  • Notched 52 record highs this year
  • Over past year NFP triggered moves of ↓ ↑ 0.8%
  • Technical levels – 6050, 6000, 5970

FXTM’s US500, which tracks the benchmark S&P 500 index could be on track for its best trading month in 2024.

But this will depend on whether bulls give one final push on the last trading day of November.

The Index has gained roughly 3.7% since Trump’s election win on November 5th.

Despite hawkish comments from Fed Powell sparking a selloff from 6000 mid-month, the “Trump trade” has kept bulls in the game with the US500 up roughly 5.1% month-to-date.

SP500

But as we enter December, the question is whether bulls can maintain their hunger for gains?

The US500 has dazzled investors, notching 52 record highs in 2024.

However, after breaching the psychological 6000 level, prices have traded within a range on the daily charts.

Still, prices up almost 26% year-to-date, adding to the 24.2% gains secured in 2023.

 

The incoming US jobs report among other key data points and speeches by Fed officials including Powell could impact the US500 in the week ahead:

Saturday, 30th November

  • CN50: China non-manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI

Monday, 2nd December

  • AU200: Australia retail sales, building approvals
  • CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Germany Manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Fed speeches

Tuesday, 3rd December

  • AUD: Australia current account
  • GBP: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves speech
  • USDInd: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech

Wednesday, 4th December

  • AUD: Australia GDP
  • CN50: China Caixin services PMI
  • EU50: S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • US500: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech, Fed issues Beige Book
  • OECD publishes economic outlook.

Thursday, 5th December

  • AU200: Australia trade
  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales, Germany factory orders
  • OIL: OPEC+ ministerial meeting
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • US500: US trade, initial jobless claims

Friday, 6th December

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
  • JP225: Japan household spending
  • US500: US November jobs report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Fed speeches

Can the US500 move higher?

The foundations are in place for US equity bulls to keep their foot on the pedal.

Market optimism around corporate tax cuts and a softer regulatory environment under Trump could keep this party rolling. And markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by January 2025.

However, the prospect of slower Fed rate cuts in the face of rising inflation could cap gains down the road. Geopolitical tensions that result in a risk-off mode could also trigger a selloff.

 

What factors could rock the US500 in the week ahead?

    1) US November jobs report

Markets expect the US economy to have created 200,000 jobs in November, compared to the 12,000 in the previous month.

Note: The low NFP number for October was the product of hurricanes and Boeing strikes.

The unemployment rate is forecast to rise 4.2% while average earnings are projected to tick lower to 0.3% MoM.

Ultimately, signs of weakness in the US labour market may hit the US500. However, any declines could be cushioned by bets around the Fed cutting interest rates in an effort to stimulate growth.

Over the past year, the US jobs report has sparked upside moves of as much as 0.8% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: Other key US data points such as the ISM Manufacturing and initial jobless claims may also impact the US500.

 

    2) Fed Chair Powell and Co.

Fed Chair Powell will deliver his speech on Wednesday 4th December with a handful of other policymakers speaking days before and after him. Given how these speeches may influence expectations around what action’s the Fed takes in December, it could move the US500.

  • Should dovish comments from Powell and co. boost bets around a December rate cut, the US500 may push higher.
  • If Powell and other Fed officials sound less dovish than expected, this could drag the US500 lower.

 

    3) Technical forces

The US500 is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe due to the consistently higher highs and higher lows.

Although prices are trading well above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory.

  • A solid weekly close above the 6000 level may open a path to 6037, 6050 and 6100.    
  • Should prices slip below 6000, this may trigger a selloff toward 5970, 5930 and 5900.

 

US5004


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

AUD/USD Stabilises Amid US Dollar Pressures and Domestic Economic Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Monday, the AUD/USD pair remains stable around the 0.6450 mark. After benefiting from the US dollar’s weakness during the extended US holiday weekend, the currency pair faced new pressures following remarks by US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump’s threat to impose 100% trade tariffs on BRICS nations if they pursue a universal currency to replace the US dollar has sparked a renewed demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering the USD.

October’s retail sales figures exceeded expectations, supporting the Australian dollar, and reinforcing the market’s belief that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not cut rates soon. RBA Governor Michele Bullock recently highlighted that core inflation remains elevated, which justifies continuing a restrictive monetary policy stance. The RBA believes it will take some time before inflation stabilises near its target.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

H4 chart: the AUD/USD is currently in the first phase of a correction wave, having achieved a local target at 0.6527. The market is now forming a decline structure towards 0.6466, and once this level is reached, a new growth phase will begin, aiming for 0.6542. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line above zero and trending upwards, indicating potential for continued growth.

H1 chart: the pair has nearly reached the local growth target of 0.6527. A decline to 0.6470 is expected shortly, followed potentially by a rise to 0.6500 and then a drop to 0.6466. If this level is achieved, the market may prepare for another upward movement towards 0.6542. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line currently below 50 and expected to drop to 20, suggesting a forthcoming reversal and potential for growth.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Gold Prices Rise Amid Weakening US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices have risen for four consecutive days, reaching 2,660 USD per troy ounce by Friday. The upward movement in Gold prices is primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions. The current state of the currency market, characterised by low liquidity due to the extended US holiday weekend starting with Thanksgiving, also contributes to Gold’s price behaviour.

Despite this recent appreciation, Gold faces potential headwinds and could experience a 2% decline by the week’s end as investors await further data from the US. The upcoming statistics are anticipated to provide additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary direction on monetary policy. While the Core PCE data suggests a rate cut in December is plausible, other economic indicators point to the continued robustness of the US economy. This may lead the Fed to maintain its cautious approach to interest rates in 2025.

The relationship between the US dollar and Gold is crucial, as they typically move inversely. Gold, which does not generate its yield, tends to perform well when the dollar and US Treasury bond yields are lower.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has completed a corrective wave at 2,605.55 and is now poised for further growth towards 2,715.00. When this level is reached, a consolidation phase around 2,715.00 may occur, potentially leading to a continued upward trajectory towards 2,818.55. The MACD indicator supports this bullish XAU/USD outlook, with its signal line below zero but rising sharply.

The H1 chart shows that Gold has completed an initial growth structure to 2,658.88 and a subsequent correction to 2,622.00. Currently, a new growth phase targeting 2,698.00 is underway. Upon reaching this target, a pullback to 2,658.88 may occur before the market attempts to achieve a higher level of 2,715.00. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 50 and climbing towards 80, indicating the potential for further upward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Public health surveillance, from social media to sewage, spots disease outbreaks early to stop them fast

By John Duah, Auburn University 

A cluster of people talking on social media about their mysterious rashes. A sudden die-off of birds at a nature preserve. A big bump in patients showing up to a city’s hospital emergency rooms.

These are the kinds of events that public health officials are constantly on the lookout for as they watch for new disease threats.

Health emergencies can range from widespread infectious disease outbreaks to natural disasters and even acts of terrorism. The scope, timing or unexpected nature of these events can overwhelm routine health care capacities.

I am a public health expert with a background in strengthening health systems, infectious disease surveillance and pandemic preparedness.

Rather than winging it when an unusual health event crops up, health officials take a systematic approach. There are structures in place to collect and analyze data to guide their response. Public health surveillance is foundational for figuring out what’s going on and hopefully squashing any outbreak before it spirals out of control.

Tracking day by day

Indicator-based surveillance is the routine, systematic collection of specific health data from established reporting systems. It monitors trends over time; the goal is to detect anomalies or patterns that may signal a widespread or emerging public health threat.

Hospitals are legally required to report data on admissions and positive test results for specific diseases, such as measles or polio, to local health departments. The local health officials then compile the pertinent data and share it with state or national public health agencies, such as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

When doctors diagnose a positive case of influenza, for example, they report it through the National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System, which tracks respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses. A rise in the number of cases could be a warning sign of a new outbreak. Likewise, the National Syndromic Surveillance Program collects anonymized data from emergency departments about patients who report symptoms such as fever, cough or respiratory distress.

Public health officials keep an eye on wastewater as well. A variety of pathogens shed by infected people, who may be asymptomatic, can be identified in sewage. The CDC created the National Wastewater Surveillance System to help track the virus that causes COVID-19. Since the pandemic, it’s expanded in some areas to monitor additional pathogens, including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and norovirus. Wastewater surveillance adds another layer of data, allowing health officials to catch potential outbreaks in the community, even when many infected individuals show no symptoms and may not seek medical care.

Having these surveillance systems in place allows health experts to detect early signs of possible outbreaks and gives them time to plan and respond effectively.

Watching for anything outside the norm

Event-based surveillance watches in real time for anything that could indicate the start of an outbreak.

This can look like health officials tracking rumors, news articles or social media mentions of unusual illnesses or sudden deaths. Or it can be emergency room reports of unusual spikes in numbers of patients showing up with specific symptoms.

Local health care workers, community leaders and the public all support this kind of public health surveillance when they report unexpected health events through hotlines and online forms or just call, text or email their public health department. Local health workers can assess the information and escalate it to state or national authorities.

Public health officials have their ears to the ground in these various ways simultaneously. When they suspect the start of an outbreak, a number of teams spring into action, deploying different, coordinated responses.

Collecting samples for more analysis

Once event-based surveillance has picked up an unusual report or a sudden pattern of illness, health officials try to gather medical samples to get more information about what might be going on. They may focus on people, animals or specific locations, depending on the suspected source. For example, during an avian flu outbreak, officials take swabs from birds, both live and dead, and blood samples from people who have been exposed.

Health workers collect material ranging from nose or throat swabs, fecal, blood or tissue samples, and water and soil samples. Back in specialized laboratories, technicians analyze the samples, trying to identify a specific pathogen, determine whether it is contagious and evaluate how it might spread. Ultimately, scientists are trying to figure out the potential impact on public health.

Finding people who may have been exposed

Once an outbreak is detected, the priority quickly shifts to containment to prevent further spread. Public health officials turn into detectives, working to identify people who may have had direct contact with a known infected person. This process is called contact tracing.

Often, contact tracers work backward from a positive laboratory confirmation of the index case – that is, the first person known to be infected with a particular pathogen. Based on interviews with the patient and visiting places they had been, the local health department will reach out to people who may have been exposed. Health workers can then provide guidance about how to monitor potential symptoms, arrange testing or advise about isolating for a set amount of time to prevent further spread.

Contact tracing played a pivotal role during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, helping health departments monitor possible cases and take immediate action to protect public health. By focusing on people who had been in close contact with a confirmed case, public health agencies could break the chain of transmission and direct critical resources to those who were affected.

Though contact tracing is labor- and resource-intensive, it is a highly effective method of stopping outbreaks before they become unmanageable. In order for contact tracing to be effective, though, the public has to cooperate and comply with public health measures.

Stopping an outbreak before it’s a pandemic

Ultimately, public health officials want to keep as many people as possible from getting sick. Strategies to try to contain an outbreak include isolating patients with confirmed cases, quarantining those who have been exposed and, if necessary, imposing travel restrictions. For cases involving animal-to-human transmission, such as bird flu, containment measures may also include strict protocols on farms to prevent further spread.

Health officials use predictive models and data analysis tools to anticipate spread patterns and allocate resources effectively. Hospitals can streamline infection control based on these forecasts, while health care workers receive timely updates and training in response protocols. This process ensures that everyone is informed and ready to act to maximize public safety.

No one knows what the next emerging disease will be. But public health workers are constantly scanning the horizon for threats and ready to jump into action.The Conversation

About the Author:

John Duah, Assistant Professor of Health Services Administration, Auburn University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

As expected, the RBNZ cut the rate by 0.5%. Australia’s inflation rate remained at its lowest level since the summer of 2021

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.28%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.57%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.57%.

Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism that inflation is falling and the labor market remains robust, supporting the possibility of further interest rate cuts, albeit at a moderate pace, minutes from the November 6–7 meeting showed. Officials noted that monetary policy decisions depend on economic trends and cautioned against premature rate cuts. The volatility of recent data and uncertainty about the impact of a neutral interest rate on economic activity make the policymaking process particularly challenging. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the December 17–18 FOMC meeting at 67%.

Intel (INTC) shares are down more than 3% after Bloomberg reported that Qualcomm’s interest in acquiring Intel has waned. General Motors (GM) stock is down more than 8%, and Ford Motor (F) is down more than 2% after President-elect Trump promised to impose additional 10% tariffs on goods from China and 25% tariffs on all products from Mexico and Canada. Both automakers import cars from China into the US and have plants in Canada and Mexico.

The Mexican peso fell more than 2% to above 20.7 per US dollar on Tuesday, the weakest since March 2022, after Donald Trump doubled down on his threats to raise tariffs. In his Truth social media posts, Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Mexico is the US’s largest trading partner, and the auto sector would be one of the hardest hit. In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested that Mexico could respond by imposing its own tariffs. The peso has weakened about 20% this year.

Equity markets in Europe were declining yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.56%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.87%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.80%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.40%.

WTI crude oil prices held below $69 per barrel on Wednesday as traders weighed signs of another OPEC+ production delay and easing geopolitical risks following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Markets are anticipating the December 1 OPEC+ meeting. It is reported that the group will postpone its planned January production increase by several months due to signs of oversupply. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East eased after Israel and Hezbollah reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement in US-brokered talks. However, shortly after President Biden’s announcement, both sides resumed attacks, underscoring the difficulty in reaching a long-term agreement.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose to $3.48/MMBtu, the highest level in more than a year, as estimates of colder weather and lower production prompted utilities to accelerate the start of the season for drawing gas from storage. EIA data showed that gas inventories in storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet in the week ending November 15 instead of the expected 5 billion cubic feet. It was the first accelerated decline this season, as relatively low prices in the previous week prompted producers to cut production.

Asian markets traded flat on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell 0.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.28%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 0.04%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.69%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the discount rate by 50bps to 4.25%, which is in line with market expectations. The RBNZ said the rate cut strikes a balance between supporting growth and employment while keeping inflation under control and ensuring market stability. This is the third rate cut by the Central Bank this year, bringing the total easing to 125bps this cycle. In addition, Governor Adrian Orr has suggested that another significant interest rate cut will occur early next year if economic conditions develop as expected. In the external market, the kiwi remains under pressure from recent tariff threats by US President-elect Donald Trump, particularly those targeting China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

In Australia, the annual CPI reading came in at 2.1%, which is in line with the growth seen in September but below analysts’ estimate of 2.3%. This is the lowest inflation rate since July 2021. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) believes that monetary policy should remain restrictive until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily towards target.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,021.63 +34.26 (+0.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,860.31 +123.74 (+0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 19,295.98 −109.22 (−0.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,258.61 −33.07 (−0.40%)

USD Index 106.87 +0.06 (+0.06%)

News feed for: 2024.11.27

  • Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2);
  • New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2);
  • RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Steady Ahead of Major US Data Releases

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD remains stable at around 1.0483 as markets digest the implications of the latest FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve signalled a potential pause in rate cuts if inflation reaccelerates but also indicated readiness to continue easing if economic indicators weaken.

Today promises heightened activity for EUR/USD due to a slew of US economic data releases. It is a significant day as the US will release its initial Q3 GDP estimate. After recording a 2.8% growth in Q2, market participants are keen to see if this momentum carried into the third quarter. Expectations suggest a robust period, potentially boosting the US dollar if the data exceeds forecasts.

Additionally, the US will unveil October’s figures for personal income and expenses, durable goods orders, and the core PCE price index. These data points could significantly influence the dollar’s trajectory, adding to today’s trading volatility.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: The EUR/USD appears to be challenging the upper boundary of its recent downward trend. Current technical analysis suggest a potential upward move towards 1.0580. After reaching this level, a corrective pullback to 1.0460 may occur before another upward wave targets 1.0700. This bullish EUR/USD forecast is supported by the MACD, which shows a positive divergence as it approaches the zero line from below.

H1 chart: The shorter-term H1 chart indicates that EUR/USD is on an upward trajectory towards 1.0580, with the currency consolidating above 1.0460. A breakout above this consolidation could validate the move towards 1.0580. Subsequently, a retracement to 1.0460 may set the stage for further advances. The Stochastic oscillator signals potential upward momentum, suggesting an increase in buying pressure.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Donor-advised funds are drawing a lot of assets besides cash – taking a bigger bite out of tax revenue than other kinds of charitable giving

By Brian Mittendorf, The Ohio State University 

Donor-advised funds, or DAFs, are financial accounts funded by donors to support future charitable work. This kind of giving differs greatly from charitable giving as a whole because it’s much more likely to involve donations of assets like stock, real estate or cryptocurrencies that have gained in value.

That’s what my co-author, Helen Flannery and I, found in our new study that will soon be published in “Nonprofit Operations and Supply Chain Management” as part of an academic book series.

We examined the IRS filings of all charities from 2020 to 2022, including organizations that administer DAFs. Such DAF sponsors include charities affiliated with large financial companies like Vanguard, Schwab and Fidelity. By looking at the types of gifts received by these charities, we found that noncash giving represents more than 16% of the average DAF’s revenue versus only about 3% on average for overall charitable giving, which covers everything from animal shelters to orchestras.

This difference is even more pronounced for the largest national DAF operations, which on average had 46% of their incoming assets in noncash form.

These noncash gifts were primarily investment assets like stocks, bonds and real estate. We find that while the average conventional charity gets around 33% of its noncash contributions as investments, the average DAF sponsor gets more than 90% of its noncash donations that way.

This share is even higher, at over 97%, for the typical national DAF organization.

Why it matters

DAFs, first launched in the 1930s, have become much more widespread over the past three decades.

The total value of assets they hold is rising fast: It grew from US$70 billion in 2014 to more than $251 billion in 2023.

In some ways, DAFs operate like small foundations, since donors can get a tax break when they put money into a DAF, even if that money isn’t put into use by a charity for years. Donors also retain advisory control over the money they’ve reserved for future charitable giving.

But unlike foundations, there’s very little paperwork required, and there’s no requirement that a DAF disburse at least 5% of its assets annually – like foundations have to do.

Using investment assets as charitable donations is more advantageous to donors than just putting money in a DAF. One reason is that most large donors are eligible for a tax deduction equal to the full value of the asset that was donated at the time of the gift. That holds true, even if the value has risen significantly from what it initially was worth when the donor acquired it. The second reason is that donors don’t need to pay taxes on their capital gains as they would have had they sold it and obtained money in exchange.

Likewise, this boom in gifting investment assets can cut into government tax revenue more than typical cash gifts because it more effectively reduces an investor’s tax obligations.

Policymakers, lawmakers and regulators are currently considering whether to establish new rules for DAFs.

What’s next

We are now researching how the charities that administer DAFs differ from one another. We’re finding that some primarily market themselves as a way for donors to reduce their tax payments, while others put more emphasis on helping donors better manage their charitable giving.

The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.The Conversation

About the Author:

Brian Mittendorf, Professor of Accounting, The Ohio State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.