InvestMacro

European indices under pressure amid political and economic weakness in the main countries of the bloc

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.38%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 1.45%. Top gainers included Alphabet (+4.4%), Tesla (+5.1%), and Broadcom, which soared after its market value surpassed $1 trillion last week. Apple and Alphabet hit new all-time highs, while Nvidia fell 2%.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rose more than 4% to a new record high of $107,000 amid President-elect Trump’s support for digital assets. Trump is seeking to create a favorable regulatory environment for digital assets by lifting restrictions imposed by the outgoing administration of President Biden. The US ETFs investing directly in Bitcoin have attracted $12.2 billion in net inflows since Trump won the November 5 presidential election.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.45%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.71%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.46%. The French Index is under pressure after Moody’s unexpected downgrade of France’s credit rating from Aa2 to Aa3, prompted by concerns over deteriorating public finances amid political instability. Meanwhile, on Friday, President Emmanuel Macron named Francois Bayrou as the new prime minister following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote as expected, confirming elections scheduled for late February. The leaders of the fall on the German stock exchange were the largest automakers: Mercedes Benz, BMW, and Stellantis, which fell in value from 3% to 5%. They were pressured by a weak retail sales report from China and industrial production, which increased competition from the country’s automakers. The UK saw the fastest decline in private sector employment in nearly four years in December, despite a slight increase in output following a payroll tax hike in Labour’s new budget.

WTI crude oil prices fell to below $71 a barrel on Monday. A batch of economic data from China heightened fears of weakening aggregate demand from the world’s top oil importer, adding to the pessimism that the economy will struggle to gain momentum despite Beijing’s promises of fiscal stimulus. The IEA predicts the global oil market will maintain a surplus next year, despite OPEC+ members agreeing to postpone production increases.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices fell to $3.15 per MMBtu, a sharp retreat from a 13-month high of $3.5, as markets lowered their expectations of strong US gas demand. Reports from the EU fueled optimism that European countries could find alternative sources of natural gas supplies after Russian flows through Ukraine were cut off later in the year, and major German companies had already struck LNG deals with Middle Eastern producers.

Asian markets were declining yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.03%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.88% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.56%.

Markets are awaiting a series of economic releases for New Zealand, central among which is Q3 GDP, which is estimated to contract by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, which could signal a return to recession. The subdued data will provide further evidence in favor of a more aggressive Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy. Meanwhile, the New Zealand Treasury is prognosing a widening budget deficit this year, citing rising unemployment and slowing economic growth, delaying a return to surplus for at least five years.

In Australia, a private survey showed a decline in Consumer Confidence in December as sentiment became more pessimistic about the economic outlook. In addition, traders await the Australian government’s budget update, which is expected to show a widening deficit, partly driven by weakening activity in China, Australia’s largest trading partner.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,074.08 +22.99 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,717.48 −110.58 (−0.25%)

DAX (DE40) 20,313.81 −92.11 (−0.45%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,262.05 −38.28 (−0.46%)

USD Index 106.86 −0.15 (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2024.12.17

UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

17 Dec

Bitcoin “Santa Rally” coming to town?

By ForexTime

Bitcoin ↑ 152% since start of 2024

Over past year Fed triggered moves of ↑ 3.4% & ↓ 3%

Gained on average 11.30% in December over past 15 years

Technical levels – $110,000, $107,000 & $100,000

Christmas may have come early for investors after Bitcoin surpassed $107,000 for the first time.

The “OG” crypto has been on a tear, recently boosted by growing optimism over its potential role as a US strategic reserve asset.

Prices are up over 10% month-to-date, pushing 2024-year gains beyond 150%.

Bitcoin 2

Bitcoin and other cryptos remain supported by hopes of a more friendly regulatory environment under Trump. And this has attracted almost $10 billion into US exchange-traded funds since Trump’s election win on November 5th.

Another factor exciting bulls could be MicroStrategy…

MicroStrategy is the largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies, accumulating 439,000 bitcoins valued at $47 billion.

The meteoric rise of Bitcoin has pushed MicroStrategy’s market cap to almost $100 billion with its shares up nearly 550% year-to-date.

Why does this matter?

MicroStrategy is set to join the Nasdaq 100 on December 23rd.

This is a major milestone for the company and crypto world given its massive exposure to Bitcoin.

Joining the Nasdaq 100 provides investors an indirect exposure to Bitcoin through investing in MicroStrategy.

In a nutshell, this is a welcome development for the crypto space and could fuel upside gains on both MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

Bitcoin set for “Santa Rally”?

To be clear, the Santa rally is a phenomenon that happens in the stock market. This is where stock prices experience a rally in the final days of December through the first few days of January.

Historically speaking, Bitcoin has gained on average 11.30% in December over the past 15 years.

Given the positive sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, could a rally be on the horizon?

By the way…

The Fed decision on Wednesday could influence Bitcoin which has shown sensitivity to interest rates.

As discussed in the week ahead, the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp.

Traders are currently pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday with the odds of another cut by March 2025 at 62%.

Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 3.4% or declines of 3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Beyond the Fed decision, the revised US GDP and PCE report among other data could influence prices.

It’s not only Bitcoin that may experience big moves on Wednesday 18th December.

DOGECOIN: ↑ 7.5 % or ↓ 4.1%

AVALANCH: ↑ 6.0 % or ↓ 4.0%

BITCOINC: ↑ 5.5 % or ↓ 3.0%

CARDANO: ↑ 5.3% or ↓ 2.7%

CHAINLINK: ↑ 4.7 % or ↓ 2.4%

POLYGON: ↑ 4.0% or ↓ 3.0%

ETHEREUM: ↑ 3.9% or ↓ 2.4%

RIPPLE: ↑ 2.9% or ↓ 2.0%

LITECOIN: ↑ 2.8 % or ↓ 1.9%

All cryptos listed above are offered by FXTM as Crypto CFD’s.

Technical outlook…

Bitcoin is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices are trading above the 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA however the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory.

A solid daily close above $107,000 could push prices to fresh all-time highs at $110,000 and beyond.

Should prices slip below $105,000, this may encourage a selloff toward the psychological $100.000 level.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions

17 Dec

EUR/USD Holds Steady Ahead of Crucial Federal Reserve Meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading neutrally around 1.0510 as market participants adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. With the December meeting set to begin tonight and conclude tomorrow, all eyes are on the potential rate adjustment. The prevailing expectation is a 25 basis point cut, with a 94% probability factored by market consensus. Additionally, there’s a 37% chance that this might be the only cut or that rates might not change at all in 2025, contributing to the current market apprehension.

As inflation concerns loom for 2025, influenced by uncertain policy decisions and economic stimulation measures, the Fed is expected to adopt a more cautious tone in its communications. This approach is aimed at providing the flexibility to respond effectively to economic indicators as they evolve.

Today, the market is also focused on the release of November’s retail sales and industrial production data from the US. These indicators are crucial for assessing the current state of the US economy and could influence the Fed’s policy direction.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

H4 chart: the EUR/USD has recently completed a correction wave at 1.0533 and appears poised for a downward movement towards 1.0420. Following the achievement of this target, a corrective move to 1.0475 is expected. Post-correction, another decline towards 1.0340 may commence. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and trending downwards, suggesting further declines.

H1 chart: on the H1 chart, the pair has retraced from 1.0533 and initiated a downward wave targeting 1.0485. Upon reaching this level, the formation of a consolidation range is anticipated. A breakout below this range could lead to a continued descent towards 1.0440 and potentially extend to 1.0420. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this scenario, with its signal line currently below 50 and expected to drop further towards 20, indicating a continuation of the bearish momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Dec

Canadian dollar falls to a four-year low. France loses credit rating

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.20% (for the week -1.83%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed unchanged (for the week -0.52%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 0.76% (for the week +0.96%). The Nasdaq Technology Index hit a new record high on Friday, driven by investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and the technology sector. The rally was fueled by Broadcom (AVGO) shares’ impressive 19% gain after the company reported better-than-expected earnings and posted a strong 220% increase in AI-related annual revenue, underscoring the growing demand for artificial intelligence chips. This upbeat report helped boost other semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia (+1.2%) and Micron Technology (+2.7%).

The Canadian dollar fell to 1.42 per USD in December, the lowest since March 2020, amid the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish stance. The Central Bank recently cut its key benchmark rate by a significant 50 bps to 3.25%, reducing the appeal of the loonie and widening the interest rate differential between Canada and the US. The decision followed rising unemployment and slower-than-expected economic growth, prompting the Bank of Canada to take measures to support the economy.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.01% (for the week -0.27%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.15% (for the week -1.00%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell 0.11% (for the week -2.82%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.14% (for the week -0.10%).

Rating agency Moody’s downgraded France to ‘Aa3’ from ‘Aa2’, citing concerns that the country’s public finances will be significantly weakened by political fragmentation that will limit the scope and scale of large deficit reduction measures for the foreseeable future. On the political front, French President Macron nominated Francois Bayrou as the new Prime Minister and eased the political risks weighing on French assets.

The UK GDP data showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1% (expectation of +0.1% growth) in October. This unexpected decline was the second consecutive monthly drop and did not match moderate growth expectations. The weak data fueled hopes for an earlier rate cut by the Bank of England next year.

On Friday, WTI crude oil prices rose by 1.8% to settle at $71.30 per barrel, the highest since November 7, and up 6% for the week thanks to tightening global supplies and rising fuel demand. The rally was fueled by expectations of sanctions against Russia and Iran, lower interest rate estimates in the US and Europe, and supportive measures for China’s economy.

The US natural gas prices fell to $3.30 million barrels per ton (MMBtu), retreating from a 13-month-high amid rising supply. Producers are ramping up production, anticipating higher winter demand and increased exports from liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.35%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.79%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.21%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.48%.

The director of the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) research bureau said China will cut interest rates and reserve requirements next year. Friday’s data showed Chinese banks issued 580 billion yuan of new loans in November 2024, well below market expectations of 950 billion yuan and less than half of the 1.170 trillion yuan in the corresponding period last year, indicating weak credit demand in the mainland. Last Thursday, China said it would widen its budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to keep economic growth stable.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,051.09 −0.16 (−0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,828.06 −86.06 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 20,405.92 −20.35 (−0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,300.33 −11.43 (−0.14%)

USD Index 106.95 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for: 2024.12.16

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:35 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:20 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

16 Dec

Japanese Yen Hits Three-Week Low as Bank of Japan Holds Rate Steady

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 153.77 on Monday, reaching a three-week high. This movement reflects growing investor sentiment that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its current interest rate level and continue its pause on monetary policy tightening at this week’s meeting. Recent statements from the BoJ have indicated a need for more evidence to substantiate wage increases before considering rate changes.

Expectations of a BoJ rate hike had previously supported the yen, mitigating external pressures. However, confidence in the BoJ’s commitment to tightening seems to wane as time progresses.

Despite this, Japan’s domestic economic indicators appear positive. October’s primary machinery and equipment orders surpassed expectations, and recent reports have shown improvement in both manufacturing and service sector activity in December.

BoJ policymakers are increasingly unconcerned about the weakening yen’s potential to accelerate inflation, which is already at desirable levels. However, further yen depreciation could push inflation higher, a scenario that remains on the central bank’s radar.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 chart: USD/JPY has established a consolidation range around the 151.51 level, from which it has continued its upward trajectory. The pair recently touched 153.93, and current technical setups suggest a potential consolidation below this peak. Should the price break downward, a corrective movement to retest 151.51 is possible, followed by another potential rise towards 154.40. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line well above zero but indicating readiness for a downward correction.

H1 chart: The shorter-term H1 chart shows the USD/JPY forming a growth structure aimed at 154.40. After completing a consolidation around 152.70 and achieving a local high at 153.93, a correction back to at least 152.70 is anticipated. Following this correction, the market may initiate a new growth phase targeting 154.40. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this analysis. It is currently positioned below 80 and poised to move down towards 20, suggesting an impending correction before further upward movement.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Dec

Currency Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to lowest level since 2019

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,418 contracts) with the British Pound (7,799 contracts), the Swiss Franc (6,102 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,744 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,021 contracts) and Bitcoin (875 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,208 contracts), the EuroFX (-18,084 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-12,916 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,899 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-170 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to lowest level since 2019

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent large drop in the speculator’s positioning for the New Zealand ‘Kiwi’ Dollar.

Large speculative New Zealand Dollar (NZD) currency positions fell this week by almost -5,000 net contracts and the NZD net positions have now declined in nine out of the past ten weeks. This ten-week drop totals -30,177 contracts and has taken the NZD from a positive net position of +1,970 contracts on October 1st to this week’s net position of +28,207 contracts.

This shortfall in positions has knocked the NZD down to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and sixty-three weeks, dating back to November 26th of 2019. Our strength indicator, which measures a market’s speculator level compared to it’s past three years, shows the NZD at a 0 percent strength score or at a bottom for the past three year’s range.

Nudging the NZD speculator sentiment lower has been recent cuts in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and economic weakness. The RBNZ dropped its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in November to 4.25 percent as the bank stated, “Economic activity in New Zealand remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased.” The RBNZ also reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points in October and by 25 basis points in August. This lowering of interest rates can hurt a currency because lower interest rates can spur traders to sell the currency to find other countries (currencies) with higher interest rates. The higher interest rate will provide a higher interest return and, in turn, if enough traders join in, can help spur the higher interest currency higher as well on a capital gains basis.

The NZD exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline in tandem with the fall in speculator bets over these past three months. The NZDUSD closed at a multi-year low of 0.5762 this week which marked the lowest level since October of 2022. The NZD had been as high as 0.6385 in September but the rate cuts and economic outlook has pushed the Kiwi lower in ten out of the past eleven weekly closes for an approximate decline by 10 percent versus the US Dollar.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (84 percent) and the Australian Dollar (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (83.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (74.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (17.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (82.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (32.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (36.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.6 percent)
Bitcoin (35.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (25 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-44 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-18 percent), Mexican Peso (-14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.2 percent)
EuroFX (-9.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-24.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-17.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-44.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-39.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-13.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-10.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.9 percent)
Bitcoin (25.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (1.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.1	26.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.9	22.2	6.8
– Net Position:	-3,224	1,940	1,284
– Gross Longs:	22,883	10,986	4,052
– Gross Shorts:	26,107	9,046	2,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	6.4	17.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -75,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	62.2	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	54.7	8.7
– Net Position:	-75,573	54,716	20,857
– Gross Longs:	157,375	452,311	84,363
– Gross Shorts:	232,948	397,595	63,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	7.9	4.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	52.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	59.3	10.2
– Net Position:	27,125	-21,904	-5,221
– Gross Longs:	102,763	162,912	26,568
– Gross Shorts:	75,638	184,816	31,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	52.7	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	20.8	-27.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	42.9	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	51.8	13.8
– Net Position:	25,752	-24,598	-1,154
– Gross Longs:	97,938	117,775	36,894
– Gross Shorts:	72,186	142,373	38,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	19.4	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.4	5.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -34,992 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	81.5	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	33.7	23.9
– Net Position:	-34,992	52,309	-17,317
– Gross Longs:	4,796	89,188	8,877
– Gross Shorts:	39,788	36,879	26,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.0	84.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	17.3	-43.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -181,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	81.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	33.7	10.9
– Net Position:	-181,554	195,936	-14,382
– Gross Longs:	29,034	333,506	30,191
– Gross Shorts:	210,588	137,570	44,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	96.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	8.9	-20.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	46.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	47.1	14.4
– Net Position:	8,485	-735	-7,750
– Gross Longs:	88,751	111,884	26,561
– Gross Shorts:	80,266	112,619	34,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	29.5	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	22.1	-47.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,207 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,899 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	71.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	38.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-28,207	31,847	-3,640
– Gross Longs:	19,605	69,879	3,520
– Gross Shorts:	47,812	38,032	7,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.2	45.4	-28.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.4	46.7	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	50.5	3.6
– Net Position:	7,928	-6,173	-1,755
– Gross Longs:	61,643	75,013	4,073
– Gross Shorts:	53,715	81,186	5,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.8	71.0	13.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.0	9.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	48.0	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.6	23.7	4.3
– Net Position:	-16,393	17,176	-783
– Gross Longs:	32,187	33,982	2,279
– Gross Shorts:	48,580	16,806	3,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	65.3	16.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	12.0	-3.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	4.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.8	4.0	3.0
– Net Position:	-720	236	484
– Gross Longs:	31,168	1,721	1,627
– Gross Shorts:	31,888	1,485	1,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	69.3	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-25.1	-10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs & Nasdaq lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing once again this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 99.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 23.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 91,522 net contracts this week with a small dip of -237 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Nasdaq speculator level is now at a 94.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 47.2 this week. The speculator position registered 35,573 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 5,882 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level resides at a 91.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 35.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -216,372 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,020 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 89.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 102,701 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 86.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week.

The speculator position was 62,074 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,653 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -32,954 net contracts this week with a drop of -10,675 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -44.2 this week. The speculator position was -28,207 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -4,899 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Euro speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -75,573 net contracts this week with a decrease by -18,084 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.2 this week. The speculator position was -3,224 net contracts this week with a dip of -170 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

Finally, the Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 6.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -181,554 net contracts this week with a decrease of -22,208 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

15 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (15,850 contracts) with Copper (493 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,657 contracts), Silver (-2,095 contracts), Palladium (-386 contracts) and with Steel (-784 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (86 percent) and Gold (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market that is below the midpoint line (50 percent) of the past three years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (84.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.9 percent)
Silver (68.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.8 percent)
Copper (43.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.0 percent)
Platinum (51.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (85.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.7 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) is leading the past six weeks trends for metals by falling the least in that time period. All of the metals markets are seeing negative 6-week trends with Platinum (-49 percent) recording the largest downside trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.8 percent)
Silver (-24.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-29.2 percent)
Copper (-11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.5 percent)
Platinum (-49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-34.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.1 percent)
Steel (-10.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 275,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	13.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	75.1	5.2
– Net Position:	275,586	-296,871	21,285
– Gross Longs:	324,332	66,025	46,448
– Gross Shorts:	48,746	362,896	25,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.9	15.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.4	-13.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	24.1	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	63.7	7.9
– Net Position:	41,165	-59,843	18,678
– Gross Longs:	72,515	36,376	30,557
– Gross Shorts:	31,350	96,219	11,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	28.2	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.7	-15.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	34.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	43.1	5.2
– Net Position:	10,959	-16,889	5,930
– Gross Longs:	84,585	72,711	16,766
– Gross Shorts:	73,626	89,600	10,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	55.9	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.0	-27.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	20.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	44.6	3.8
– Net Position:	14,829	-23,288	8,459
– Gross Longs:	54,105	20,299	12,146
– Gross Shorts:	39,276	43,587	3,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	40.7	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.0	40.7	39.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	49.8	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	17.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-6,029	5,105	924
– Gross Longs:	5,205	7,770	2,194
– Gross Shorts:	11,234	2,665	1,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	40.4	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	24.7	5.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	66.8	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	57.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-2,780	2,776	4
– Gross Longs:	7,354	19,961	250
– Gross Shorts:	10,134	17,185	246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.7	15.2	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	10.6	-15.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

15 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3M & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3M & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (209,405 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (70,670 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (57,215 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (47,335 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (19,282 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (16,185 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-59,567 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-52,025 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,020 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (92 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (70 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (38.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (49.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (25.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (43.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (29.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (63.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (91.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (92.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (51.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (39.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (32.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (51 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (-14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-6 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-30.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-5.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-0.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-25.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (48.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (51.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (32.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-14.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-25.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -88,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -59,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	71.9	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	65.9	2.8
– Net Position:	-88,471	95,143	-6,672
– Gross Longs:	170,536	1,131,257	36,896
– Gross Shorts:	259,007	1,036,114	43,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	59.3	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.7	41.0	30.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -327,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 209,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -536,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	59.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	56.2	0.4
– Net Position:	-327,476	337,197	-9,721
– Gross Longs:	1,466,029	6,611,792	33,875
– Gross Shorts:	1,793,505	6,274,595	43,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	57.0	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.1	1.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 47,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	67.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	62.1	0.0
– Net Position:	-69,330	69,643	-313
– Gross Longs:	238,301	858,711	131
– Gross Shorts:	307,631	789,068	444
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	48.7	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.4	-51.3	2.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,254,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -52,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,202,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	78.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.6	52.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,254,924	1,113,690	141,234
– Gross Longs:	481,986	3,348,411	260,916
– Gross Shorts:	1,736,910	2,234,721	119,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	83.8	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-15.0	-6.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,790,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 70,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,861,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	85.1	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	57.3	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,790,430	1,682,114	108,316
– Gross Longs:	419,439	5,145,585	408,423
– Gross Shorts:	2,209,869	3,463,471	300,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.3	88.6	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	12.0	-14.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -875,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -891,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	60.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-875,716	815,384	60,332
– Gross Longs:	438,538	3,516,621	416,813
– Gross Shorts:	1,314,254	2,701,237	356,481
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	78.6	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	3.1	-11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -106,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 57,215 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -163,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	73.3	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	66.0	12.6
– Net Position:	-106,082	161,350	-55,268
– Gross Longs:	346,401	1,620,031	223,359
– Gross Shorts:	452,483	1,458,681	278,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	39.8	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-7.0	15.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,493 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	65.6	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	67.3	7.1
– Net Position:	-39,493	-31,489	70,982
– Gross Longs:	410,909	1,221,804	203,350
– Gross Shorts:	450,402	1,253,293	132,368
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	18.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	0.5	-11.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -216,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	69.4	8.7
– Net Position:	-216,372	191,705	24,667
– Gross Longs:	144,422	1,433,739	180,858
– Gross Shorts:	360,794	1,242,034	156,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.7	1.5	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.8	-51.7	31.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

15 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (87,195 contracts) with Soybean Oil (16,035 contracts), Soybeans (12,268 contracts), Sugar (9,012 contracts) Live Cattle (5,657 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,742 contracts) and Wheat (2,247 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-5,938 contracts), Coffee (-4,653 contracts), Lean Hogs (-237 contracts) and with Cocoa (-188 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Corn (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (15 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (26 percent) and the Wheat (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (35.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (32.6 percent)
Coffee (86.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (90.9 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (56.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.5 percent)
Live Cattle (89.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (17.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.9 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.9 percent)
Wheat (30.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.3 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Live Cattle (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (18 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybean Oil (-12 percent) and Cotton (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.2 percent)
Sugar (5.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.8 percent)
Coffee (-3.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (1.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-42.0 percent)
Live Cattle (22.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (23.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.1 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-28.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-35.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 224,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 137,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	44.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	56.3	10.2
– Net Position:	224,423	-183,482	-40,941
– Gross Longs:	465,806	707,447	121,307
– Gross Shorts:	241,383	890,929	162,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	38.1	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-19.5	7.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	50.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	63.0	5.8
– Net Position:	97,327	-115,926	18,599
– Gross Longs:	237,266	469,791	72,554
– Gross Shorts:	139,939	585,717	53,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	63.1	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	0.4	-20.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	34.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	66.7	3.1
– Net Position:	62,074	-65,126	3,052
– Gross Longs:	76,217	71,110	9,346
– Gross Shorts:	14,143	136,236	6,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.4	13.3	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	2.8	5.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	55.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	44.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-86,216	102,553	-16,337
– Gross Longs:	160,946	508,774	50,637
– Gross Shorts:	247,162	406,221	66,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.1	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.1	-3.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	52.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	61.8	4.5
– Net Position:	42,863	-50,751	7,888
– Gross Longs:	144,344	298,265	33,370
– Gross Shorts:	101,481	349,016	25,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	37.9	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	9.4	9.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -29,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	44.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	44.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-29,228	5,021	24,207
– Gross Longs:	135,659	275,022	55,954
– Gross Shorts:	164,887	270,001	31,747
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	79.7	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	23.4	-12.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 102,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	30.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	53.2	14.1
– Net Position:	102,701	-77,914	-24,787
– Gross Longs:	167,119	102,578	23,110
– Gross Shorts:	64,418	180,492	47,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.7	27.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-24.5	-2.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.6	29.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	51.3	9.0
– Net Position:	91,522	-79,905	-11,617
– Gross Longs:	179,204	105,332	20,747
– Gross Shorts:	87,682	185,237	32,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.8	2.6	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.8	-21.9	-24.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -19,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	47.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.1	38.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-19,528	19,378	150
– Gross Longs:	59,508	108,927	13,293
– Gross Shorts:	79,036	89,549	13,143
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.9	81.8	17.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	4.0	7.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	36.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	70.1	4.5
– Net Position:	36,977	-43,622	6,645
– Gross Longs:	54,366	46,915	12,396
– Gross Shorts:	17,389	90,537	5,751
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	49.3	68.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	1.0	-4.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	38.8	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	23.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-59,290	64,282	-4,992
– Gross Longs:	126,404	165,145	28,783
– Gross Shorts:	185,694	100,863	33,775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	72.4	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	26.2	20.1

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