InvestMacro

Canadian dollar declines after weak GDP data. Qatar threatens EU to halt natural gas exports

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.16%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.73%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.01%. Stocks rose on Monday thanks to gains in technology and chip companies’ share prices, with Nvidia up 3% and TSMC, Broadcom, and AMD up nearly 5%, confirming their role as key drivers of market growth in 2024. Congress passed a temporary funding bill and averted a shutdown of the US government, which would have negatively impacted the US economy. Under this bill, the government will be funded until mid-March 2025.

The US durable goods orders report released on Monday was weaker than expected, although capital goods orders were slightly stronger than expected. US Durable Goods Orders for November fell by 1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.3%, although October’s figure was revised upward to 0.8% from 0.3%. November’s US New Home Sales report came in at 5.9% to 664,000 on Monday, weaker than expected for a rise to 669,000. The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index for December came in at 8.1 to 104.7, significantly weaker than expectations of an increase to 113.2. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut at the January 28–29 FOMC meeting at 9%.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.44 per US dollar, nearing its lowest level since March 2020, as investors digested weak GDP data while the US dollar strengthened. Canada’s GDP is estimated to have contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in November, the first decline this year and coinciding with Central Bank warnings and recently lowered growth estimates. The Canadian government revised down its GDP prognoses, cutting economic growth in 2025 to 1.7% from 1.9% and in 2026 to 2.1% from 2.2%. Growing expectations that the Bank of Canada may continue easing rates to support growth could widen the interest rate gap with the US, reducing the attractiveness of the Canadian dollar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.03%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.28%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.22%. European government bond yields rose after ECB President Lagarde said ECB officials remain vigilant on lingering price pressures in the services sector, but remain confident that the Consumer Price Index is approaching the ECB’s target level. Swaps rate the odds of a -25bp ECB rate cut at the January 30 meeting as 100%, while the odds of a 50bp rate cut at that meeting are 9%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.3% to settle at $69.2 a barrel on Monday as concerns about a possible supply glut in 2025 and a strengthening US dollar pressured markets in pre-holiday trading. Analysts noted the likelihood of a growing supply glut next year, while the dollar’s rise to two-year highs put further pressure on prices by increasing spending by foreign buyers. Geopolitical tensions also intensified, with Donald Trump calling on the EU to increase imports of US energy or the EU will face tariffs.

Qatar has warned it will stop exporting gas to the European Union if the bloc’s countries impose sanctions under recently passed environmental review legislation. The EU directive on environmental impact assessments of businesses, which came into force in July, imposes fines of up to 5% of a company’s annual global revenue if management fails to address negative impacts on human rights or the environment. Qatar has become a crucial LNG supplier to Europe as countries reduce their dependence on Russian supplies.

Asian markets rose steadily yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.19%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.91%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.82%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) added 1.67%. Foreign institutions remain optimistic about China’s capital market in 2025 as the economy will gradually stabilize.

The minutes of the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that there is a need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for the time being. The Board emphasized that future rate decisions will be data-dependent, noting that while inflation risks have eased, uncertainty remains due to global conditions and elevated service inflation.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,974.07 +43.22 (+0.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,906.95 +66.69 (+0.16%)

DAX (DE40) 19,848.77 −35.98 (−0.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,102.72 +18.11 (+0.22%)

USD Index 108.09 +0.47 (+0.43%)

News feed for: 2024.12.24

Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Dec

Goldman Sachs has updated its economic projections for 2025. EU countries are looking for alternative sources of natural gas

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.18% (for the week -2.25%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.09% (for the week -2.19%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.85% (for the week -2.75%). Friday’s rally followed lower-than-expected inflation data, with the November PCE Index showing an increase to 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 2.5%. That helped ease market anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s prediction of fewer rate cuts in 2025. However, despite Friday’s gains, all three indices closed negative at the end of the week.

Goldman Sachs updated its economic projections to reflect nuanced changes in monetary policy expectations and global growth trends for 2025. The US Federal Reserve’s ultimate policy rate is now expected to be in the 3.5–3.75% range, up from previous estimates of 3.25–3.5%. The broker expects the next 25 basis point rate cut to occur in March, followed by additional cuts in June and September. The US economic performance is projected to continue to outperform developed economies, supported by strong real income growth and excellent productivity gains. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue to cut rates through mid-2025, eventually reaching the 1.75% level. In China, the outlook remains cautious despite recent policy easing.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 20.2 per US dollar, amid a weaker US dollar following the release of softer-than-expected Core PCE data. Last week, the Bank of Mexico cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 10%, matching investor expectations. The rate cut came amid lower inflation in Mexico. The Bank of Mexico anticipates further easing next year amid prognoses for inflation to fall to 4.6% by the end of the year, although it does not expect to reach its 3% target until mid-2026.

Donald Trump said on Saturday that the Panama Canal charges “exorbitant prices and tariffs for passage” for US military and merchant ships. He demanded the fees be lowered or Panama must return the canal to the United States. The US is the canal’s largest customer, with about three-quarters of its cargo passing each year. China is its second-largest customer. Trump has suggested that China should not run the canal. A Chinese company based in Hong Kong controls two of the five ports adjacent to the canal, one on each side. “If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not honored, we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, fully and without question,” Trump said. The US completed the 51-mile (82-kilometer) canal across the Central American isthmus in 1914. However, in 1977, US President at the time Jimmy Carter handed the Panama Canal back to Panama.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.43% (for the week -2.34%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.27% (for the week -1.46%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.24% (for the week -2.25%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) lost 0.26% (for the week -2.60%) on Friday. Concerns over the potential impact of a second Trump administration in Europe intensified after Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union if EU countries do not increase their purchases of US oil and gas.

WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.1% to close at $69.46 per barrel on Friday, recovering some losses but still showing a 3% decline for the week. China’s energy outlook added to market uncertainty, with Sinopec estimating crude imports could peak by 2025 and oil consumption by 2027. OPEC+ lowered its demand growth projection for 2024 for the fifth consecutive time, emphasizing the need for supply discipline. In addition, President-elect Trump has indicated the possibility of imposing tariffs on the EU if it fails to address trade imbalances, particularly with US oil and gas.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose to $3.7 per mmbtu on Friday, the highest in a month. The reduced likelihood that Europe will continue to receive Russian gas via Ukraine has prompted investors to take long LNG positions as EU countries look for alternative sources of gas. These boosts demand for US LNG at the turn of the US presidential election: President-elect Trump has pledged to issue more LNG export permits, prompting companies to favor more profitable exports over cheaper domestic gas sales due to the abundance of gas available in the United States.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.14% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.48% for the week.

Singapore’s Core Consumer Prices showed 1.9% year-on-year in November 2024, down from 2.1% in the previous month, below market estimates of 2.1%. This was the lowest core inflation rate since November 2021, thanks to lower inflation in food and services. MAS core inflation is expected to remain below 2% until the end of 2024. Core inflation is projected to average 2.5–3.0% in 2024 before falling to 1.5–2.5% in 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,930.85 +63.77 (+1.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,840.26 +498.02 (+1.18%)

DAX (DE40) 19,884.75 −85.11 (−0.43%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,084.61 −20.71 (−0.26%)

USD Index 106.95 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for: 2024.12.23

Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2).
UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Dec

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Swiss Franc & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Swiss Franc (13,192 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,678 contracts), the US Dollar Index (8,865 contracts), the Mexican Peso (6,686 contracts) and Bitcoin (891 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-70,016 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-19,791 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-14,300 contracts), the British Pound (-5,478 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,544 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-501 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculator bets rise for 1st time in 7 weeks, AUD bets plunge

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increase in the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions jumped this week for the first time in the past seven weeks and by the highest weekly amount (+8,865 contracts) since June.

The Dollar Index bets had fallen for seven straight weeks and spec positions were in bearish territory for the past five weeks before this week’s gain. Now, the Dollar Index is back in a bullish standing and at the highest level since September. Speculators had been cutting their bullish bets despite the strong buying action in the markets for the Dollar.

The Dollar Index futures (DX) rose again this week for a third consecutive week and have now been higher in ten out of the past twelve weeks. This week’s high level over 108 is the highest point touched since 2022 and the DX managed to close over the 107.00 level for the first time since November.

Australian dollar bets plunge

The Australian dollar speculator positions fell by the most on record this week with a huge drop by -70,016 contracts. This surpasses the previous most bearish weekly plunge of -56,065 contracts that took place in 2007 around the time of the Great Financial Crisis.

The Australian Dollar exchange versus the US Dollar has been falling sharply with declines in eleven out of the past twelve weeks as well. The AUD exchange level closed at 0.6267 on Friday, marking the lowest close since the fourth quarter of 2022.

The strong Dollar has been laying waste to most of the other major currencies as the Euro, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso and the Brazilian real are all trading at or near multi-year lows.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (76 percent) and the Swiss Franc (57 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent), the EuroFX (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (18.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (3.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (76.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (83.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (56.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (82.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (19.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (36.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (32.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (32.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (36.5 percent)
Bitcoin (55.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (35.6 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (36 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (17 percent) and the US Dollar Index (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-66 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-47 percent), EuroFX (-17 percent) and the British Pound (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.2 percent)
EuroFX (-16.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-17.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-3.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-65.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-46.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-13.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-8.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.5 percent)
Bitcoin (35.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,224 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.9	25.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.2	42.9	5.0
– Net Position:	5,641	-7,349	1,708
– Gross Longs:	25,145	10,353	3,753
– Gross Shorts:	19,504	17,702	2,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	79.6	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-14.4	18.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	58.4	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.4	50.1	9.3
– Net Position:	-65,895	48,089	17,806
– Gross Longs:	152,671	340,837	72,006
– Gross Shorts:	218,566	292,748	54,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.7	97.7	10.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	16.2	-7.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.2	38.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	47.0	16.2
– Net Position:	21,647	-16,258	-5,389
– Gross Longs:	88,265	71,728	24,964
– Gross Shorts:	66,618	87,986	30,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.8	54.9	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	15.6	-33.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	31.4	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	33.1	20.7
– Net Position:	5,961	-3,101	-2,860
– Gross Longs:	87,208	57,107	34,688
– Gross Shorts:	81,247	60,208	37,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	27.4	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-18.5	0.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	71.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	24.6	29.7
– Net Position:	-21,800	40,379	-18,579
– Gross Longs:	16,872	61,407	6,853
– Gross Shorts:	38,672	21,028	25,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	65.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	1.4	-38.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -182,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.9	88.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	48.5	8.7
– Net Position:	-182,055	195,457	-13,402
– Gross Longs:	19,170	430,972	28,710
– Gross Shorts:	201,225	235,515	42,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	96.6	2.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	6.0	-20.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -61,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -70,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	64.4	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.7	23.3	18.3
– Net Position:	-61,531	71,099	-9,568
– Gross Longs:	32,929	111,276	21,997
– Gross Shorts:	94,460	40,177	31,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	72.3	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.6	61.3	-27.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,507 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	84.1	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	26.9	8.4
– Net Position:	-42,507	46,323	-3,816
– Gross Longs:	9,370	68,108	2,967
– Gross Shorts:	51,877	21,785	6,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	4.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-46.8	47.8	-30.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	50.3	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	60.1	4.7
– Net Position:	14,614	-12,332	-2,282
– Gross Longs:	55,529	63,901	3,680
– Gross Shorts:	40,915	76,233	5,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	67.9	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	7.5	10.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	55.6	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.8	26.9	4.5
– Net Position:	-20,937	22,320	-1,383
– Gross Longs:	31,931	43,312	2,103
– Gross Shorts:	52,868	20,992	3,486
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	70.1	13.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.4	-3.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.8	4.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.4	5.2	3.1
– Net Position:	171	-483	312
– Gross Longs:	33,073	1,720	1,639
– Gross Shorts:	32,902	2,203	1,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	51.4	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.5	-35.2	-16.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Dec

Speculator Extremes: New Zealand Dollar, Euro & CAD lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 17.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 93,410 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,888 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 98.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 34.5 this week. The speculator position registered 110,778 net contracts this week with a weekly gain by 8,077 contracts in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 31.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 36,082 net contracts this week with an increase by 509 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 17.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -219,304 net contracts this week with a change of -2,932 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 86.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.8 this week.

The speculator position was 62,147 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 73 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -46.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -42,507 net contracts this week with a drop by -14,300 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 3.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.8 this week. The speculator position was -65,895 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level resides at a 6.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -182,055 net contracts this week with a dip of -501 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 9.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.3 this week. The speculator position was -44,844 net contracts this week with a decline by -15,616 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 11.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,762,317 net contracts this week with a rise of 28,113 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (218,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (142,799 contracts), the Fed Funds (52,914 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (29,668 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (28,113 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-6,810 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6,403 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-4,349 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,932 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (91 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) and 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (38.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (43.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (67.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (90.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (91.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (58.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.4 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (27 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-11.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-11.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (35.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-14.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 52,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	68.6	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	66.4	2.2
– Net Position:	-35,557	39,263	-3,706
– Gross Longs:	266,577	1,226,907	35,971
– Gross Shorts:	302,134	1,187,644	39,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	49.2	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.3	4.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 218,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -327,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	59.3	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	58.3	0.6
– Net Position:	-108,925	117,411	-8,486
– Gross Longs:	1,543,408	6,609,849	56,269
– Gross Shorts:	1,652,333	6,492,438	64,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	45.7	83.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	1.0	-3.1

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	62.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	59.6	0.0
– Net Position:	-39,662	40,010	-348
– Gross Longs:	392,112	954,943	141
– Gross Shorts:	431,774	914,933	489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	41.4	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-26.9	0.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,259,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,254,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	78.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.4	51.4	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,259,273	1,129,720	129,553
– Gross Longs:	487,339	3,297,104	248,447
– Gross Shorts:	1,746,612	2,167,384	118,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	84.9	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-15.0	-7.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,762,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,790,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	84.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	57.2	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,762,317	1,670,044	92,273
– Gross Longs:	435,419	5,139,765	395,530
– Gross Shorts:	2,197,736	3,469,721	303,257
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.7	87.8	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	3.5	-11.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -732,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 142,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -875,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	77.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	62.6	7.8
– Net Position:	-732,917	651,759	81,158
– Gross Longs:	492,529	3,448,078	431,228
– Gross Shorts:	1,225,446	2,796,319	350,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	58.6	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-6.8	-6.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	72.9	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	66.2	12.4
– Net Position:	-112,485	145,015	-32,530
– Gross Longs:	332,600	1,582,159	237,065
– Gross Shorts:	445,085	1,437,144	269,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.2	34.6	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-19.0	19.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -46,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	65.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	67.6	7.1
– Net Position:	-46,303	-34,197	80,500
– Gross Longs:	407,771	1,224,408	213,331
– Gross Shorts:	454,074	1,258,605	132,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	17.4	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	0.8	4.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -219,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -216,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	79.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.8	9.1
– Net Position:	-219,304	198,644	20,660
– Gross Longs:	144,952	1,432,440	184,033
– Gross Shorts:	364,256	1,233,796	163,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	4.6	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.2	-28.9	28.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-13,545 contracts), Copper (-5,019 contracts), Palladium (-1,282 contracts), Platinum (-1,085 contracts), Silver (-901 contracts) and with Steel (-778 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (83 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (39 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength scores were Platinum (49 percent) and Palladium (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (84.9 percent)
Silver (67.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (68.2 percent)
Copper (38.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.4 percent)
Platinum (48.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.0 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.7 percent)

Gold tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-27 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (2.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.2 percent)
Silver (-16.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-24.3 percent)
Copper (-16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.9 percent)
Platinum (-36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-49.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.2 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 262,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 275,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	13.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	74.2	5.4
– Net Position:	262,041	-285,233	23,192
– Gross Longs:	302,978	61,012	48,388
– Gross Shorts:	40,937	346,245	25,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	19.6	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-0.8	-16.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	23.9	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	63.1	8.3
– Net Position:	40,264	-57,510	17,246
– Gross Longs:	68,183	35,135	29,396
– Gross Shorts:	27,919	92,645	12,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.0	30.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	18.5	-17.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	35.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	41.5	5.6
– Net Position:	5,940	-11,750	5,810
– Gross Longs:	81,540	74,275	17,360
– Gross Shorts:	75,600	86,025	11,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.3	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	19.4	-28.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	19.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	41.1	4.3
– Net Position:	13,744	-21,341	7,597
– Gross Longs:	56,233	18,959	11,841
– Gross Shorts:	42,489	40,300	4,244
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	45.1	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.2	32.4	13.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	48.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.9	10.8	8.3
– Net Position:	-7,311	6,358	953
– Gross Longs:	5,633	8,182	2,356
– Gross Shorts:	12,944	1,824	1,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	49.3	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.7	26.9	-5.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	67.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	56.2	0.7
– Net Position:	-3,558	3,550	8
– Gross Longs:	7,338	20,911	226
– Gross Shorts:	10,896	17,361	218
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	18.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.4	-13.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Live Cattle, Lean Hogs & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (8,077 contracts) with Lean Hogs (1,888 contracts) and Coffee (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,144 contracts), Soybeans (-23,113 contracts), Wheat (-20,050 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,616 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,513 contracts), Cotton (-7,075 contracts), Corn (-2,575 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,696 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (98 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Corn (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Wheat (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (62.4 percent)
Sugar (25.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.7 percent)
Coffee (86.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (86.4 percent)
Soybeans (20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (64.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.4 percent)
Live Cattle (98.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (89.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (98.5 percent)
Cotton (13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.9 percent)
Cocoa (45.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.1 percent)

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (34 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-24 percent), Soybean Meal (-24 percent) and Cotton (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (-3.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (-0.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-23.1 percent)
Live Cattle (34.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.5 percent)
Cotton (-9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.4 percent)
Wheat (-45.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-28.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 221,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	46.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	56.6	10.7
– Net Position:	221,848	-170,678	-51,170
– Gross Longs:	454,635	745,237	121,259
– Gross Shorts:	232,787	915,915	172,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.1	39.8	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-14.7	-11.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	53.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	61.9	6.0
– Net Position:	68,183	-79,998	11,815
– Gross Longs:	221,468	505,126	68,565
– Gross Shorts:	153,285	585,124	56,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	73.5	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	9.6	-30.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly edge higher of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	34.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	67.5	3.0
– Net Position:	62,147	-65,700	3,553
– Gross Longs:	74,227	69,145	9,539
– Gross Shorts:	12,080	134,845	5,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	12.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-0.3	17.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -109,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	56.6	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	42.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-109,329	125,032	-15,703
– Gross Longs:	156,034	518,263	52,313
– Gross Shorts:	265,363	393,231	68,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	79.6	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.2	8.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	52.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	58.9	5.3
– Net Position:	33,350	-34,566	1,216
– Gross Longs:	142,261	299,589	31,466
– Gross Shorts:	108,911	334,155	30,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.7	45.8	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	25.5	-32.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	45.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	42.2	5.3
– Net Position:	-44,844	21,478	23,366
– Gross Longs:	130,356	290,506	57,067
– Gross Shorts:	175,200	269,028	33,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	86.2	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	23.8	-4.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	28.6	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	53.7	13.5
– Net Position:	110,778	-87,943	-22,835
– Gross Longs:	175,651	100,389	24,537
– Gross Shorts:	64,873	188,332	47,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.4	15.2	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.5	-39.6	2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 93,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	30.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	54.8	10.0
– Net Position:	93,410	-80,545	-12,865
– Gross Longs:	154,060	101,704	20,534
– Gross Shorts:	60,650	182,249	33,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	2.0	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-14.6	-24.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	47.5	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	36.0	5.8
– Net Position:	-26,603	27,546	-943
– Gross Longs:	59,565	113,854	12,851
– Gross Shorts:	86,168	86,308	13,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	86.8	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.5	-7.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	38.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	71.2	4.2
– Net Position:	35,281	-42,067	6,786
– Gross Longs:	51,064	49,033	12,193
– Gross Shorts:	15,783	91,100	5,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	50.9	70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	1.7	-2.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	39.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.4	20.9	7.6
– Net Position:	-79,340	80,945	-1,605
– Gross Longs:	126,968	173,934	32,189
– Gross Shorts:	206,308	92,989	33,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	85.8	49.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-45.1	40.8	32.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

21 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (43,471 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (1,741 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (509 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,702 contracts), the VIX (-3,818 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,550 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-1,571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the Nikkei 225 (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (55.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (58.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (94.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (44.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (58.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.4 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-29.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-39.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-15.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	46.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	32.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-48,988	48,253	735
– Gross Longs:	67,787	159,781	27,288
– Gross Shorts:	116,775	111,528	26,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	49.0	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	30.0	-12.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	69.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	73.7	6.6
– Net Position:	-39,862	-118,471	158,333
– Gross Longs:	313,420	1,793,629	328,497
– Gross Shorts:	353,282	1,912,100	170,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	23.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	15.8	15.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	56.0	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	68.4	13.3
– Net Position:	7,521	-13,145	5,624
– Gross Longs:	20,780	59,009	19,672
– Gross Shorts:	13,259	72,154	14,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	19.2	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	5.8	9.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	54.6	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	69.1	9.8
– Net Position:	36,082	-47,174	11,092
– Gross Longs:	94,151	177,346	42,919
– Gross Shorts:	58,069	224,520	31,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	2.9	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-20.9	-0.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	73.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	77.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-416	-22,280	22,696
– Gross Longs:	72,290	417,352	47,882
– Gross Shorts:	72,706	439,632	25,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	10.3	88.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	0.8	22.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	71.5	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	42.3	12.6
– Net Position:	-4,174	3,029	1,145
– Gross Longs:	501	7,419	2,456
– Gross Shorts:	4,675	4,390	1,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	47.6	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	11.8	1.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	81.1	1.2
– Net Position:	-31,665	19,842	11,823
– Gross Longs:	39,277	470,654	18,670
– Gross Shorts:	70,942	450,812	6,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	56.7	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-23.1	24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

20 Dec

Argentina’s soaring poverty levels don’t seem to be hurting president Javier Milei – but the honeymoon could be over

By Nicolas Forsans, University of Essex

Argentina, a nation once ranked among the wealthiest in the world, has found itself grappling with severe economic challenges over the past 25 years. Then, one year ago, provocative libertarian economist Javier Milei was inaugurated as its new president.

Known for his flamboyant persona and radical views, Milei is one of the most polarising figures in global politics, celebrated by some as a visionary reformer and dismissed by others as “El Loco” (“the mad one”). He pledged to take a “chainsaw” to the state and promote a free-market approach.

His pro-capitalism stance extends to the promotion of culture wars. Last month, he fired his foreign secretary for voting along with 186 other countries against the US embargo on Cuba at the United Nations. Only the US and Israel voted against it. He withdrew Argentina’s delegation of negotiators to the UN climate summit in Baku, claiming human-caused climate change is “a socialist lie”.

Yet Milei owes his 2023 victory to Argentina’s deep economic crisis. It was an economy suffering from the third highest inflation rate in the world, at 211% year on year, a poverty rate north of 40% (it’s now climbed even higher), and an economy in crisis for decades.

Argentina’s economic woes are deeply rooted. Once one of the world’s richest nations thanks to its fertile Pampas plains, its prosperity was built on agricultural exports and integration into global markets.

Political instability, excessive protectionism and fiscal mismanagement disrupted its trajectory. Peronism, a political movement based on economic independence and social justice, has dominated Argentine politics for decades. While it lifted the working class, critics argue it entrenched inefficiency and dependence on the state.

By 2023, Argentina’s crisis had reached unprecedented levels and the peso had lost most of its value.

Argentines turned to Milei, an outsider who pledged to dismantle the state’s bloated bureaucracy, privatise key sectors and adopt policies rooted in libertarian principles.

Sweeping reforms and painful cuts

Now in power for a year, he has slashed government spending by a third, dismantling price controls and cutting subsidies on energy and transport. Last December, he devalued the peso by 54%.

Around 30,000 state jobs were cut, as were more than half of government ministries. Milei also allowed inflation to eat into the real value of pensions and salaries. This has generated fiscal surpluses, but also deepened the country’s worst economic crisis in two decades.

The result is unprecedented levels of poverty. As the cost of food and basic products increased, around 53% of Argentines now live in poverty – up from around 42% in 2023 and the highest level in 30 years. Another 15% of the population is in “extreme poverty”. An extra 5.5 million Argentines became poor during Milei’s first six months in office.

Despite the pain, Milei’s approval ratings have remained stable at around 50%. His success seems to rest on his unrelenting attacks on the country’s establishment and workers’ unions. The only large-scale protests occurred when Milei imposed cuts to free public universities. Argentines seem to have accepted the doctor’s prescription.

Milei’s key legislative victory was his controversial “omnibus” reform bill. This was originally aimed at slashing government spending, privatising public entreprises (whether or not they were profitable) and enforcing a zero-deficit policy.

Although the bill was watered down, economic indicators improved significantly. Monthly inflation dropped to 2.7% in October from its peak of 26% last December. The peso has strengthened considerably and is now overvalued, hurting exporters and raising the prospect of a devaluation – and with it, more inflation. Argentina’s country risk index (which measures the risk of investing in a state) has fallen significantly.

But the economy is not out of the woods. Growth remains elusive – the IMF forecast a 3.5% economic contraction this year. Growth of 5.2% next year will only return per-capita GDP, a measure of individual wealth, to where it was by the time COVID lockdowns ended in 2021. Reducing inflation further won’t be easy, as it has hovered around the 3% monthly level since July.

Meanwhile, Milei’s 2025 budget proposal aims for a budget surplus of over 1.3% of the country’s GDP, requiring further spending cuts. But calls to restart frozen public works and boost pensions and wages will inevitably grow louder next year.

And Argentina still has heavy capital controls, making it hard for investors to get money out of the country. They will think twice before investing.

Meanwhile, the opposition is waking up. Milei’s veto of the bill increasing university budgets brought 250,000 people out in protest in November, prompting some to suggest the president had miscalculated.

Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, still Argentina’s dominant leftist, is poised to take over the leadership of main Peronist party ahead of next year’s midterm elections. While her influence has greatly diminished, she still enjoys reasonable approval ratings. Both Kirchner and Milei are polarising figures, so it is unclear if her return will help the left.

The re-election of Donald Trump could prove to be Milei’s best card. While Argentina is a small trade partner, Milei will leverage his relationship with the US president-elect to convince the IMF to roll over the remainder of the US$44 billion debt (£35 billion) acquired in 2018 during Trump’s first term in office. Another US$10 billion is needed to bolster the central bank’s international reserves which remain critically low.

This source of money will be critical for Milei to start lifting capital controls. Only then can economic stability translate into sustainable growth.

About the Author:

Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and Co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of Essex

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

20 Dec

Riksbank and Banxico cut interest rates by 0.25%. BoE, Norges Bank, and PBoC left rates unchanged

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased 0.09%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.47%. The US economic reports released on Thursday were mostly stronger than expected and pushed bond yields to a 6-month high, which pressured the indices. The US Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised upward to 3.1% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at 2.8%. The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 220,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 230,000. The US home sales for November rose by 4.8% m/m to an 8-month high of 4.15 million, stronger than expectations of 3.2% to 4.09 million.

On Friday, markets await key inflation data: the PCE Core Price Index for November, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to see if policymakers can continue to cut interest rates. The Core PCE Index for November is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y in October.

The Mexican peso remained above 20.3 per US dollar, near the one-month low of 20.37 seen on December 18, after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut rates to 10% and signaled further easing, possibly with larger cuts, depending on the pace of disinflation and economic conditions.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.14%. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index in Germany for January rose by 1.8 to minus 21.3, beating expectations of minus 22.5. The Bank of England (BOE) left the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75%. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that a “gradual approach” to future rate cuts remains the right approach, and we cannot determine when and by how much to cut interest rates in 2025.

Norway’s Norges Bank kept its key rate unchanged at 4.5% at its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, but said rates will likely be cut in March 2025. Policymakers have kept the interest rate at a sixteen-year high of 4.5% since December 2023, helping to cool the Norwegian economy and lower inflation. Sweden’s Riksbank cut its key rate by 25 bps to 2.50% at its December meeting, confirming market expectations. This is the fifth rate cut this year, for a total of 150 bps, in response to the continued decline in inflation and stabilization of inflationary pressures. This was reflected in November core inflation, which came in at 1.6%, the lowest level since July 2021, remaining below the central bank’s 2% target for the fourth consecutive month.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices rose to $3.5 per MMBtu on Thursday, the highest in more than a year, as bets on higher global LNG demand boosted domestic consumption. EIA data showed utilities withdrew more than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage for the second straight week, extending the expected withdrawal season. In addition, uncertainty over whether Europe will continue to receive Russian gas via Ukraine prompted investors to take long LNG positions as EU countries seek alternative gas sources.

Palladium prices slipped below $900 an ounce (XPD/USD), near their lowest level in four months, foreshadowing a fall of more than 18% for the full year amid slowing industrial demand, hawkish Fed monetary policy, and supply growth projections.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.69%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.56%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.70%. Chinese stocks rose on Friday. The rally followed the latest policy decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which left one-year and five-year lending rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, matching market expectations. Earlier this month, senior Chinese officials pledged to adopt “more active” fiscal measures and “moderate” monetary policy easing next year to boost economic growth, signaling a shift away from the more cautious approach of the past decade.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.8% in November 2024 from 1.9% in the previous month, below the market estimates of 2.1%. Core Consumer Prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, rose 1.8% y/y, holding steady for the third month and remaining at the slowest pace in six months.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,867.08 −5.08 (−0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,342.24 +15.37 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 19,969.86 −272.71 (−1.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,105.32 −93.79 (−1.14%)

USD Index 108.40 +0.37 (+0.34%)

News feed for: 2024.12.20

Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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