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5-Year, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Weekly Speculator Bets Lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets were the Eurodollar (21,409 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (20,439 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (7,103 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-61,931 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-58,934 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-40,457 contracts), the Fed Funds (-17,884 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-17,703 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,583,494	15	-2,857,402	1	3,053,630	96	-196,228	61
FedFunds	1,861,895	69	84,766	50	-78,246	50	-6,520	43
2-Year	1,966,512	8	-281,600	25	348,412	96	-66,812	21
Long T-Bond	1,233,302	50	-68,834	62	40,789	25	28,045	75
10-Year	3,559,445	34	-440,103	6	558,958	88	-118,855	52
5-Year	4,037,085	53	-565,456	0	694,381	98	-128,925	46

US Treasury Bond & Fed Funds Futures lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) continues to lead the bonds markets although it is cooling off from past months and from last week’s score of 67.9 percent. The Fed Funds (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above the 3-Year midpoint of 50 percent.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Eurodollar (0.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently. All three of these markets are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent) and are near the bottoms of their 3-Year ranges.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (33.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (40.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
Eurodollar (0.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.1 percent)

10-Year, 5-Year & 2-Year lead Strength Trends sharply lower

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds and is the only positive score in the latest data.

The 10-Year Bond (-50.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-46.5 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-44.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores. These three market trends are all sharply lower as the speculator sentiment has become much weaker.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-44.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-35.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-46.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-32.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-50.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-41.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-8.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
Eurodollar (-3.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-2.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,857,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,878,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	69.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	37.1	7.7
– Net Position:	-2,857,402	3,053,630	-196,228
– Gross Longs:	556,379	6,613,120	541,288
– Gross Shorts:	3,413,781	3,559,490	737,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	95.6	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	2.1	21.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 84,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	71.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	75.5	2.3
– Net Position:	84,766	-78,246	-6,520
– Gross Longs:	293,531	1,328,269	36,739
– Gross Shorts:	208,765	1,406,515	43,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.4	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.3	5.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -281,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	83.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	65.2	10.8
– Net Position:	-281,600	348,412	-66,812
– Gross Longs:	108,397	1,631,374	146,211
– Gross Shorts:	389,997	1,282,962	213,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	96.0	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.1	45.2	5.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -565,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -503,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	84.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	66.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-565,456	694,381	-128,925
– Gross Longs:	227,425	3,395,892	312,291
– Gross Shorts:	792,881	2,701,511	441,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-46.5	35.7	3.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -440,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -58,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -381,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	79.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	63.8	12.7
– Net Position:	-440,103	558,958	-118,855
– Gross Longs:	241,872	2,829,749	334,948
– Gross Shorts:	681,975	2,270,791	453,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	88.3	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.4	45.9	-13.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	80.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	70.5	18.2
– Net Position:	-17,986	124,783	-106,797
– Gross Longs:	66,830	1,039,205	129,753
– Gross Shorts:	84,816	914,422	236,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	72.3	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-6.3	4.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	73.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	70.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-68,834	40,789	28,045
– Gross Longs:	78,532	903,487	173,323
– Gross Shorts:	147,366	862,698	145,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	25.2	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	6.3	7.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -355,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	81.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	58.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-355,794	323,164	32,630
– Gross Longs:	77,899	1,132,704	150,042
– Gross Shorts:	433,693	809,540	117,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	73.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	7.6	-3.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

03 Sep

Corn, Coffee and Cocoa lead the COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets higher this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Corn, Coffee and Cocoa lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Higher

COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (20,154 contracts) and Coffee (10,054 contracts) with Cocoa (9,461 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,381 contracts), Sugar (4,464 contracts) and Cotton (282 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Lean Hogs (-8,204 contracts) with Soybeans (-4,274 contracts), Wheat (-3,243 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,346 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,365 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,470,207	0	229,189	5	-256,248	95	27,059	48
Gold	459,165	2	117,734	10	-129,679	92	11,945	2
Silver	138,714	6	-8,271	0	265	100	8,006	8
Copper	158,390	0	-23,255	19	24,985	83	-1,730	15
Palladium	5,875	0	-1,129	16	1,323	82	-194	33
Platinum	70,747	40	-5,378	1	646	99	4,732	28
Natural Gas	978,881	4	-128,765	40	92,463	60	36,302	66
Brent	180,952	24	-40,013	44	36,585	54	3,428	56
Heating Oil	283,427	29	25,196	79	-43,761	25	18,565	63
Soybeans	605,924	7	83,562	40	-52,791	68	-30,771	19
Corn	1,267,735	0	283,397	66	-225,759	40	-57,638	10
Coffee	193,889	7	48,687	81	-50,983	23	2,296	21
Sugar	752,642	9	62,551	49	-72,593	54	10,042	20
Wheat	288,545	0	-11,499	4	14,914	81	-3,415	93

Soybean Meal and Coffee leads this week’s Strength Scores

On the downside, Wheat (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme state (below 20 percent). Cocoa (25.8 percent) comes in as the next lowest followed by Soybeans (39.6 percent) and Soybean Oil (40.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.7 percent)
Sugar (49.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (48.6 percent)
Coffee (80.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.9 percent)
Live Cattle (54.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (62.7 percent)
Cotton (52.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (52.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.5 percent)
Wheat (4.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.3 percent)

Live Cattle leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (47.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (18.3 percent), Coffee (17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Sugar (-13.3 percent) followed by Soybeans (-5.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.1 percent)
Sugar (-13.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.8 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (-5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (11.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (9.6 percent)
Live Cattle (47.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (50.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (28.7 percent)
Cotton (9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.0 percent)
Wheat (-23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 283,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 263,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	47.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	64.8	13.6
– Net Position:	283,397	-225,759	-57,638
– Gross Longs:	402,312	595,440	115,050
– Gross Shorts:	118,915	821,199	172,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	39.7	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.6	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	53.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	63.1	7.5
– Net Position:	62,551	-72,593	10,042
– Gross Longs:	175,450	402,664	66,576
– Gross Shorts:	112,899	475,257	56,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	54.4	20.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	13.1	-5.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	45.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	71.3	3.7
– Net Position:	48,687	-50,983	2,296
– Gross Longs:	61,416	87,194	9,555
– Gross Shorts:	12,729	138,177	7,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.9	23.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-20.8	20.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 83,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	55.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	64.0	11.3
– Net Position:	83,562	-52,791	-30,771
– Gross Longs:	155,472	335,048	37,513
– Gross Shorts:	71,910	387,839	68,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	67.8	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.5	-4.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	67.8	5.4
– Net Position:	53,958	-62,711	8,753
– Gross Longs:	83,033	202,095	29,895
– Gross Shorts:	29,075	264,806	21,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	60.8	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-20.2	21.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	43.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.7	78.3	6.4
– Net Position:	116,189	-137,835	21,646
– Gross Longs:	126,866	168,316	46,829
– Gross Shorts:	10,677	306,151	25,183
– Long to Short Ratio:	11.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.2	11.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-9.1	10.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	32.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	53.1	12.0
– Net Position:	59,731	-57,725	-2,006
– Gross Longs:	108,976	93,974	32,255
– Gross Shorts:	49,245	151,699	34,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	34.2	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.4	-48.2	-9.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	36.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	52.3	12.5
– Net Position:	43,199	-35,424	-7,775
– Gross Longs:	84,944	78,505	19,440
– Gross Shorts:	41,745	113,929	27,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	51.6	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-16.2	0.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	43.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	71.8	3.4
– Net Position:	51,767	-59,761	7,994
– Gross Longs:	78,599	92,717	15,280
– Gross Shorts:	26,832	152,478	7,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	46.5	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-12.1	33.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	45.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	49.9	3.2
– Net Position:	8,311	-12,968	4,657
– Gross Longs:	96,892	131,596	13,945
– Gross Shorts:	88,581	144,564	9,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	73.3	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.6	30.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	36.3	11.4
– Net Position:	-11,499	14,914	-3,415
– Gross Longs:	89,300	119,733	29,557
– Gross Shorts:	100,799	104,819	32,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	80.9	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	16.7	32.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities

03 Sep

WTI Crude, Brent Oil and Gasoline lead COT Energy Speculators bets lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil, Brent and Gasoline lead Weekly Speculator Changes lower

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,373 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (98 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-17,031 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-3,589 contracts), Gasoline (-3,088 contracts) and Natural Gas (-155 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,470,207	0	229,189	5	-256,248	95	27,059	48
Gold	459,165	2	117,734	10	-129,679	92	11,945	2
Silver	138,714	6	-8,271	0	265	100	8,006	8
Copper	158,390	0	-23,255	19	24,985	83	-1,730	15
Palladium	5,875	0	-1,129	16	1,323	82	-194	33
Platinum	70,747	40	-5,378	1	646	99	4,732	28
Natural Gas	978,881	4	-128,765	40	92,463	60	36,302	66
Brent	180,952	24	-40,013	44	36,585	54	3,428	56
Heating Oil	283,427	29	25,196	79	-43,761	25	18,565	63
Soybeans	605,924	7	83,562	40	-52,791	68	-30,771	19
Corn	1,267,735	0	283,397	66	-225,759	40	-57,638	10
Coffee	193,889	7	48,687	81	-50,983	23	2,296	21
Sugar	752,642	9	62,551	49	-72,593	54	10,042	20
Wheat	288,545	0	-11,499	4	14,914	81	-3,415	93

Heating Oil leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (79.5 percent) leads the energy markets and is just under the bullish extreme position threshold (above 80 percent). The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.4 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent). The next lowest is Gasoline (21.7 percent) followed by Natural Gas (39.9 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (44.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (44.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (39.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.0 percent)
Gasoline (21.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (24.8 percent)
Heating Oil (79.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.0 percent)

Heating Oil also leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (23.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Gasoline (9.9 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (6.0 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (2.2 percent) round out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude Oil (-11.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (2.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (3.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-2.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.9 percent)
Gasoline (9.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (20.1 percent)
Heating Oil (23.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (6.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-7.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 229,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	40.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	57.5	3.4
– Net Position:	229,189	-256,248	27,059
– Gross Longs:	332,415	588,601	77,360
– Gross Shorts:	103,226	844,849	50,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	95.1	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	10.1	6.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	51.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	31.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-40,013	36,585	3,428
– Gross Longs:	32,556	93,680	9,137
– Gross Shorts:	72,569	57,095	5,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	54.1	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-7.1	40.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -128,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	42.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	32.5	3.0
– Net Position:	-128,765	92,463	36,302
– Gross Longs:	168,924	410,930	65,677
– Gross Shorts:	297,689	318,467	29,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	60.0	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.8	6.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	47.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	68.4	5.8
– Net Position:	49,702	-53,438	3,736
– Gross Longs:	80,794	119,875	18,480
– Gross Shorts:	31,092	173,313	14,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	80.1	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-7.6	-13.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	51.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	66.9	8.0
– Net Position:	25,196	-43,761	18,565
– Gross Longs:	49,157	145,893	41,370
– Gross Shorts:	23,961	189,654	22,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	24.7	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-21.3	13.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 98 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	74.3	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	56.0	0.1
– Net Position:	-12,567	12,243	324
– Gross Longs:	15,868	49,746	419
– Gross Shorts:	28,435	37,503	95
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	40.4	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.4	4.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing

03 Sep

Stock Market Speculator bets gain led by S&P500 Mini, VIX & EAFE Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

S&P500 Mini, VIX & EAFE Mini lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was S&P500 Mini (22,644 contracts) with the VIX (8,410 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (7,680 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (3,774 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (3,174 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Nasdaq Mini (-11,226 contracts) with Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts), also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,329,953	9	-239,632	12	311,815	94	-72,183	11
Nikkei 225	14,151	10	-4,641	55	2,949	44	1,692	50
Nasdaq-Mini	263,641	50	26,807	90	-2,850	25	-23,957	0
DowJones-Mini	77,430	38	-1,420	36	3,027	63	-1,607	30
VIX	338,590	38	-97,935	60	101,485	39	-3,550	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	56,933	39	-319	33	19,462	78	-19,143	35

Nasdaq-Mini leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (90.0 percent) leads the stocks markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini strength score is down from last week’s 96.3 percent but remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (60.2 percent) comes in as the next highest stock market in strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (11.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Russell2000-Mini (16.2 percent) with both markets residing in a bearish extreme level currently (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (56.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (36.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (96.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (16.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (14.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)

Dow Jones-Mini leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (19.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The EAFE-Mini (13.0 percent) and the Russell 2000-Mini (5.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-14.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-5.8 percent).

——————–
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-20.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-5.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (19.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (20.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (10.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (12.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -97,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	59.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	29.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-97,935	101,485	-3,550
– Gross Longs:	46,792	201,681	24,889
– Gross Shorts:	144,727	100,196	28,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	38.5	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.4	12.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -239,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -262,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	77.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	63.9	12.8
– Net Position:	-239,632	311,815	-72,183
– Gross Longs:	240,653	1,800,768	224,954
– Gross Shorts:	480,285	1,488,953	297,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	94.1	11.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.3	-2.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	49.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	45.2	17.1
– Net Position:	-1,420	3,027	-1,607
– Gross Longs:	26,724	38,005	11,643
– Gross Shorts:	28,144	34,978	13,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	63.1	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-24.1	18.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	56.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	57.4	21.2
– Net Position:	26,807	-2,850	-23,957
– Gross Longs:	77,379	148,385	32,035
– Gross Shorts:	50,572	151,235	55,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	24.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	10.3	-31.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	86.8	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	69.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-91,149	92,282	-1,133
– Gross Longs:	39,315	455,296	22,023
– Gross Shorts:	130,464	363,014	23,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	83.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-7.1	12.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	53.3	34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	32.5	22.3
– Net Position:	-4,641	2,949	1,692
– Gross Longs:	1,729	7,548	4,844
– Gross Shorts:	6,370	4,599	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	44.4	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	-1.3	37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	91.5	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	88.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-13,864	11,445	2,419
– Gross Longs:	23,657	366,925	8,362
– Gross Shorts:	37,521	355,480	5,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	75.9	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-11.6	-8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Stock Market News

20 Aug

Forex Speculators boost Canadian Dollar bets to 58-week high while Euro bets drop to 128-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: CAD bets up, Euro bets down

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator positions.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (6,250 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (5,644 contracts), Brazilian real (4,790 contracts), Swiss franc (4,686 contracts), New Zealand dollar (2,045 contracts), British pound sterling (1,359 contracts) and Bitcoin (137 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-8,248 contracts) with the Japanese yen (-3,859 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,660 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-676 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the Canadian dollar‘s recent gains in the speculator positions. The CAD positions rose this week and have now gained for five straight weeks and in ten out of the past thirteen weeks for a total 13-week gain of +41,363 contracts. The speculative position had fallen into bearish territory from April 26th to June 7th before getting a large sentiment boost by +24,264 contracts on June 14th that flipped the position from bearish to bullish. Since then, the bullish position has steadily increased and this week, reached the most bullish level since July 6th of 2021, a span of fifty-eight weeks.

Euro speculative bets this week, meanwhile, fell for the first time in the past four weeks but made a new low for this recent bearish cycle. Euro bets dropped by over -8,000 contracts this week and have now been in an overall bearish position for the past ten weeks. The decline of bets this week brought the current speculator standing to the most bearish level since March 3rd of 2020, a span of one hundred and twenty-eight weeks. The EURUSD currency pair fell rather sharply to end the week (weekly decline by over -2.00 percent) and closed just a hair above parity at the 1.0041 exchange rate. The EURUSD dropped below parity for a quick time on July 14th with a low of 0.9952 (20-year lows) before staging a rally back over 1.0350 in the following weeks but with deteriorating speculator sentiment, it seems possible the pair will be testing below parity again.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	58,909	86	37,961	88	-40,673	11	2,712	46
EUR	698,570	81	-42,784	22	20,916	82	21,868	11
GBP	227,752	62	-33,109	46	47,217	59	-14,108	26
JPY	228,697	74	-28,891	51	41,979	56	-13,088	27
CHF	39,407	20	-5,096	44	13,616	65	-8,520	29
CAD	147,596	29	26,867	70	-32,129	42	5,262	41
AUD	160,045	52	-59,248	30	63,470	66	-4,222	42
NZD	41,729	28	1,769	74	195	31	-1,964	29
MXN	201,618	50	-21,371	18	17,803	80	3,568	58
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	38,079	24	6,523	57	-8,659	43	2,136	90
Bitcoin	12,423	69	-93	79	-260	0	353	21

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) remains at the highest levels for the currency markets and continues in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (78.6 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) round out the next highest strength scores in the currency markets. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The next currencies at the lower range of strength scores are the EuroFX at 21.9 percent and the Australian Dollar at 29.9 percent.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (89.4 percent)
EuroFX (21.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (24.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (51.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (53.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (43.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (69.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (63.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.6 percent)
Brazil Real (56.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (52.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent), the Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) fill out the other highest movers in the latest trends data. The Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Brazilian Real (-9.6 percent) followed by Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) and the EuroFX (-8.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.7 percent)
EuroFX (-8.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (18.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (14.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (12.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-3.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (25.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brazil Real (-9.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-23.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.2	3.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	72.6	3.6
– Net Position:	37,961	-40,673	2,712
– Gross Longs:	50,782	2,078	4,843
– Gross Shorts:	12,821	42,751	2,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	11.2	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	1.3	5.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	57.3	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	54.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-42,784	20,916	21,868
– Gross Longs:	199,226	400,458	79,589
– Gross Shorts:	242,010	379,542	57,721
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	82.0	10.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.4	-6.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	68.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	47.8	14.9
– Net Position:	-33,109	47,217	-14,108
– Gross Longs:	44,084	156,167	19,890
– Gross Shorts:	77,193	108,950	33,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	58.7	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-17.9	13.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	66.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	48.2	15.1
– Net Position:	-28,891	41,979	-13,088
– Gross Longs:	51,308	152,209	21,465
– Gross Shorts:	80,199	110,230	34,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	56.1	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-10.8	-7.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	55.2	24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	20.7	46.5
– Net Position:	-5,096	13,616	-8,520
– Gross Longs:	7,773	21,767	9,809
– Gross Shorts:	12,869	8,151	18,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	65.2	28.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.8	-10.3	4.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	39.6	22.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	61.4	18.9
– Net Position:	26,867	-32,129	5,262
– Gross Longs:	51,843	58,476	33,129
– Gross Shorts:	24,976	90,605	27,867
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	42.0	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-23.0	10.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -59,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	69.3	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.0	29.6	13.0
– Net Position:	-59,248	63,470	-4,222
– Gross Longs:	28,835	110,918	16,660
– Gross Shorts:	88,083	47,448	20,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	66.2	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	5.8	9.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	49.6	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	49.1	10.6
– Net Position:	1,769	195	-1,964
– Gross Longs:	18,412	20,688	2,458
– Gross Shorts:	16,643	20,493	4,422
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	30.7	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.9	17.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -21,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	42.7	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.5	33.8	1.6
– Net Position:	-21,371	17,803	3,568
– Gross Longs:	108,642	85,997	6,782
– Gross Shorts:	130,013	68,194	3,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.2	80.2	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	3.2	-3.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,523 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.7	22.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	45.4	4.1
– Net Position:	6,523	-8,659	2,136
– Gross Longs:	25,762	8,637	3,679
– Gross Shorts:	19,239	17,296	1,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.8	42.8	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	8.5	12.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.7	2.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.5	4.1	6.8
– Net Position:	-93	-260	353
– Gross Longs:	9,284	250	1,202
– Gross Shorts:	9,377	510	849
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	42.6	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	11.7	7.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

20 Aug

COT Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets higher for 3rd week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: Platinum bullish bets rise

COT precious metals speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (2,094 contracts) with Silver (629 contracts), Palladium (371 contracts) and Copper (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-1,687 contracts) on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is that Platinum speculator bets that have bounced back a bit over the past three weeks after a recent down-streak that put the position in negative territory. The Platinum large speculator positions rose this week for a third straight week and for the fourth time over the past five weeks. This recent uptick has pulled the overall position out of a bearish level that had held from June 28th to August 2nd. This week, the current position increased into a small bullish level of +2,940 contracts. The Platinum futures price, meanwhile, took a step back this week with a loss. The futures had previously seen four straight weekly gains before closing the week below the $900.00 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,349	0	214,940	1	-239,291	100	24,351	48
Gold	453,960	0	141,164	19	-153,709	84	12,545	4
Silver	144,314	11	3,508	10	-12,451	90	8,943	12
Copper	183,500	17	-28,220	22	28,932	79	-712	21
Palladium	7,951	7	-1,599	14	1,536	83	63	48
Platinum	57,254	17	2,940	12	-6,361	90	3,421	10
Natural Gas	983,460	5	-120,911	42	82,862	57	38,049	70
Brent	176,902	21	-36,012	51	34,290	50	1,722	33
Heating Oil	296,987	34	24,926	79	-40,022	29	15,096	51
Soybeans	595,095	5	83,183	39	-51,650	68	-31,533	18
Corn	1,316,462	1	220,129	58	-166,318	48	-53,811	12
Coffee	190,302	0	33,471	68	-35,318	37	1,847	16
Sugar	737,535	7	49,970	47	-61,837	56	11,867	23
Wheat	313,237	11	-1,908	17	7,448	70	-5,540	82

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper is the highest metals market currently at just 22.0 percent of its 3-year range. The rest of the metals markets are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent) and have been for a while now. Gold (18.6 percent), Palladium (13.8 percent), Platinum (12.0 percent) and Silver (9.7 percent) round out the rest of the metals market in strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (18.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (22.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.2 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (7.7 percent) and Copper (2.6 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-2.0 percent) and Gold (-1.7 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently but have both improved since last week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-5.7 percent)
Silver (-2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.7 percent)
Copper (2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (7.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	27.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	60.9	5.6
– Net Position:	141,164	-153,709	12,545
– Gross Longs:	238,196	122,566	37,826
– Gross Shorts:	97,032	276,275	25,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	83.7	3.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	4.3	-20.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	41.4	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	50.0	9.9
– Net Position:	3,508	-12,451	8,943
– Gross Longs:	47,851	59,753	23,230
– Gross Shorts:	44,343	72,204	14,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	90.0	12.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-0.8	12.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	46.4	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	30.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-28,220	28,932	-712
– Gross Longs:	46,797	85,187	14,097
– Gross Shorts:	75,017	56,255	14,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	79.3	21.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-1.7	-6.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 846 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.8	39.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	50.8	5.3
– Net Position:	2,940	-6,361	3,421
– Gross Longs:	26,218	22,749	6,467
– Gross Shorts:	23,278	29,110	3,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	90.2	9.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-6.1	-13.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,599 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	54.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	35.6	14.3
– Net Position:	-1,599	1,536	63
– Gross Longs:	1,479	4,363	1,202
– Gross Shorts:	3,078	2,827	1,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	83.4	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-14.3	43.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

20 Aug

Large Bond Speculators drop 5-Year Bonds bets lower for 4th Week to 24-Week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes Week 33: 5-Year Bonds bets hit 24-week low

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed on the week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds Futures (87,697 contracts) with the Eurodollar (16,102 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (14,667 contracts) and the Long US Bond (261 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-116,372 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-76,650 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-41,827 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-13,607 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures saw their speculator bets drop sharply again this week. The 5-Year fell for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time in the past eight weeks for an eight-week total decline by -363,294 contracts. This recent weakness has pushed the overall speculator standing to the lowest level since March 1st, a span of twenty-four weeks. Overall, the 5-Year market is now very close to the bottom of it’s 3-year speculator sentiment range (1.2 percent strength score on a scale of 0-100) and has seen that strength score fall by -37.4 percent over the past six weeks (6-week trend score).

The 5-Year Bond price has continued in a downtrend and it’s yield closed the week (yields rise when bond prices fall) higher around 3.09 percent. Currently, the 5-Year yield (3.09%) is inverted with the 10-Year yield (2.97%), meaning that the shorter bond pays more yield than the longer bond and overall, an unusual occurrence.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,585,911	15	-2,869,877	0	3,208,503	98	-338,626	30
FedFunds	1,665,365	54	88,658	51	-93,150	49	4,492	71
2-Year	2,124,688	15	-214,048	39	249,553	74	-35,505	34
Long T-Bond	1,167,915	39	-47,325	69	21,207	18	26,118	73
10-Year	3,520,468	31	-363,128	17	470,732	78	-107,604	54
5-Year	4,066,730	55	-467,375	1	621,468	89	-154,093	39

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) continues to generate the highest spec strength score for bonds and just a edge up from last week’s score of 69.1 percent. The Fed Funds (50.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above its 3-year midpoint of 50 percent. On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.3 percent), the 5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (39.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (47.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (21.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (17.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (32.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (37.8 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.0 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the bonds markets this week had negative trend scores. The Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) had the least negative trend score followed by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent). The most negative downside trend scores were led by the 5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) followed by the 10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent), the 2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-25.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-37.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-6.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-23.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Eurodollar (-9.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-13.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,869,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,102 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,885,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	71.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.4	37.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-2,869,877	3,208,503	-338,626
– Gross Longs:	429,027	6,835,497	434,367
– Gross Shorts:	3,298,904	3,626,994	772,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.3	98.4	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.6	10.3	-13.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 88,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 87,697 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	71.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	76.6	2.3
– Net Position:	88,658	-93,150	4,492
– Gross Longs:	243,264	1,183,007	43,138
– Gross Shorts:	154,606	1,276,157	38,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	48.6	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-0.6	30.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -214,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -172,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	69.2	9.1
– Net Position:	-214,048	249,553	-35,505
– Gross Longs:	180,858	1,718,780	158,017
– Gross Shorts:	394,906	1,469,227	193,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	74.4	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	17.1	20.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -467,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -116,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -351,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	83.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	68.4	11.2
– Net Position:	-467,375	621,468	-154,093
– Gross Longs:	265,741	3,402,691	299,503
– Gross Shorts:	733,116	2,781,223	453,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	89.0	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.4	26.4	-1.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -363,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -76,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -286,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	68.2	12.5
– Net Position:	-363,128	470,732	-107,604
– Gross Longs:	209,821	2,870,103	332,003
– Gross Shorts:	572,949	2,399,371	439,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.2	77.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	19.8	6.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	84.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	71.3	20.7
– Net Position:	-32,000	160,566	-128,566
– Gross Longs:	54,965	1,016,979	120,448
– Gross Shorts:	86,965	856,413	249,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.5	81.5	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	3.7	-3.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -47,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	76.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	74.9	12.2
– Net Position:	-47,325	21,207	26,118
– Gross Longs:	88,791	896,481	168,447
– Gross Shorts:	136,116	875,274	142,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	18.2	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	-0.3	16.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -374,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -361,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	82.5	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	57.9	8.3
– Net Position:	-374,923	337,614	37,309
– Gross Longs:	55,063	1,133,222	150,925
– Gross Shorts:	429,986	795,608	113,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.3	80.2	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.0	25.3	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing

20 Aug

Sugar, Live Cattle & Soybean Oil lead Soft Commodity Speculator bets higher

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as nine out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Sugar (23,905 contracts) with Live Cattle (12,806 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,956 contracts), Corn (9,343 contracts), Cotton (7,985 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,809 contracts), Coffee (3,018 contracts), Cocoa (2,784 contracts) and Wheat (1,518 contracts) also having higher weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Soybeans (-5,718 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,349	0	214,940	1	-239,291	100	24,351	48
Gold	453,960	0	141,164	19	-153,709	84	12,545	4
Silver	144,314	11	3,508	10	-12,451	90	8,943	12
Copper	183,500	17	-28,220	22	28,932	79	-712	21
Palladium	7,951	7	-1,599	14	1,536	83	63	48
Platinum	57,254	17	2,940	12	-6,361	90	3,421	10
Natural Gas	983,460	5	-120,911	42	82,862	57	38,049	70
Brent	176,902	21	-36,012	51	34,290	50	1,722	33
Heating Oil	296,987	34	24,926	79	-40,022	29	15,096	51
Soybeans	595,095	5	83,183	39	-51,650	68	-31,533	18
Corn	1,316,462	1	220,129	58	-166,318	48	-53,811	12
Coffee	190,302	0	33,471	68	-35,318	37	1,847	16
Sugar	737,535	7	49,970	47	-61,837	56	11,867	23
Wheat	313,237	11	-1,908	17	7,448	70	-5,540	82

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores with Coffee (67.8 percent), Corn (58.2 percent) and Live Cattle (56.3 percent) following. On the downside, Cocoa (14.9 percent) and Wheat (16.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (58.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (57.0 percent)
Sugar (46.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (42.0 percent)
Coffee (67.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.1 percent)
Soybeans (39.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (89.9 percent)
Live Cattle (56.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (40.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (69.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (61.4 percent)
Cotton (50.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (45.7 percent)
Cocoa (14.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.2 percent)
Wheat (16.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (51.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (9.0 percent), Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) and Cocoa (4.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Wheat (-13.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Soybeans (-12.9 percent) followed by Coffee (-11.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-15.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-19.9 percent)
Coffee (-11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.7 percent)
Soybeans (-12.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-14.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (10.2 percent)
Live Cattle (51.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (36.9 percent)
Cotton (-4.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.9 percent)
Cocoa (4.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-11.7 percent)
Wheat (-13.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-14.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 220,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	48.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	61.4	13.2
– Net Position:	220,129	-166,318	-53,811
– Gross Longs:	367,371	642,350	120,568
– Gross Shorts:	147,242	808,668	174,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	48.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	5.9	-0.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 49,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	53.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	62.2	7.7
– Net Position:	49,970	-61,837	11,867
– Gross Longs:	171,404	396,588	68,600
– Gross Shorts:	121,434	458,425	56,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	56.4	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	4.4	12.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	52.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	70.6	4.0
– Net Position:	33,471	-35,318	1,847
– Gross Longs:	45,062	99,068	9,438
– Gross Shorts:	11,591	134,386	7,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	37.2	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	12.5	-4.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,718 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	55.0	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	63.6	11.3
– Net Position:	83,183	-51,650	-31,533
– Gross Longs:	144,698	327,098	35,752
– Gross Shorts:	61,515	378,748	67,285
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	68.1	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	12.5	0.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.5	54.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	66.5	5.7
– Net Position:	40,963	-46,758	5,795
– Gross Longs:	74,046	220,234	28,767
– Gross Shorts:	33,083	266,992	22,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	70.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-5.1	6.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	39.7	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.7	72.5	6.0
– Net Position:	112,163	-135,859	23,696
– Gross Longs:	127,369	164,277	48,624
– Gross Shorts:	15,206	300,136	24,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	12.3	55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-12.0	35.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	34.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	57.0	12.4
– Net Position:	61,388	-58,750	-2,638
– Gross Longs:	106,713	91,932	30,154
– Gross Shorts:	45,325	150,682	32,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	32.8	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.8	-52.3	-11.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,197 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	31.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.3	12.9
– Net Position:	58,006	-49,401	-8,605
– Gross Longs:	102,201	76,592	22,371
– Gross Shorts:	44,195	125,993	30,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	35.1	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.6	-51.1	2.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	45.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	70.9	4.1
– Net Position:	44,208	-50,078	5,870
– Gross Longs:	68,979	86,767	13,871
– Gross Shorts:	24,771	136,845	8,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	49.4	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.7	11.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	48.9	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	48.8	3.6
– Net Position:	-2,778	180	2,598
– Gross Longs:	89,997	146,704	13,549
– Gross Shorts:	92,775	146,524	10,951
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.1	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-5.0	7.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	40.2	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	37.8	11.7
– Net Position:	-1,908	7,448	-5,540
– Gross Longs:	95,452	126,007	31,104
– Gross Shorts:	97,360	118,559	36,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.6	70.3	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	9.7	18.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities

20 Aug

Energy Speculators push Heating Oil bets higher for 6th week to 42-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data (Week 33) is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 33 – Heating Oil bets rise for 6th week

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (4,508 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (4,289 contracts), Gasoline (2,163 contracts) and Heating Oil (462 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-1,801 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-231 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil speculator contracts edged higher this week and rose for a sixth straight week. Speculator positions are now in bullish territory for the twelfth week after turning from bearish to bullish on May 31st. These increases have pushed the Heating Oil speculator standing to just about +25,000 contracts and to the highest level since October 26th of 2021, a span of forty-two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,349	0	214,940	1	-239,291	100	24,351	48
Gold	453,960	0	141,164	19	-153,709	84	12,545	4
Silver	144,314	11	3,508	10	-12,451	90	8,943	12
Copper	183,500	17	-28,220	22	28,932	79	-712	21
Palladium	7,951	7	-1,599	14	1,536	83	63	48
Platinum	57,254	17	2,940	12	-6,361	90	3,421	10
Natural Gas	983,460	5	-120,911	42	82,862	57	38,049	70
Brent	176,902	21	-36,012	51	34,290	50	1,722	33
Heating Oil	296,987	34	24,926	79	-40,022	29	15,096	51
Soybeans	595,095	5	83,183	39	-51,650	68	-31,533	18
Corn	1,316,462	1	220,129	58	-166,318	48	-53,811	12
Coffee	190,302	0	33,471	68	-35,318	37	1,847	16
Sugar	737,535	7	49,970	47	-61,837	56	11,867	23
Wheat	313,237	11	-1,908	17	7,448	70	-5,540	82

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (79.1 percent) leads the energy currently and is up a bit from last week’s score of 78.4 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores. On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) and Gasoline (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (53.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.9 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.5 percent)
Heating Oil (79.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (27.1 percent) is getting the most love from speculators lately and leads the past six weeks trends for energy. Gasoline (19.7 percent), Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) and Natural Gas (2.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-23.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Natural Gas (2.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.2 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (13.4 percent)
Heating Oil (27.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (24.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 214,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	41.0	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	56.4	3.5
– Net Position:	214,940	-239,291	24,351
– Gross Longs:	346,865	638,971	78,715
– Gross Shorts:	131,925	878,262	54,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	99.7	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	17.5	0.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	50.8	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	31.4	3.1
– Net Position:	-36,012	34,290	1,722
– Gross Longs:	33,017	89,828	7,241
– Gross Shorts:	69,029	55,538	5,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	50.3	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-5.0	7.0

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -120,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	42.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	33.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-120,911	82,862	38,049
– Gross Longs:	170,133	415,171	67,826
– Gross Shorts:	291,044	332,309	29,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	57.0	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-2.9	-1.2

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	48.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	68.3	6.0
– Net Position:	47,669	-52,630	4,961
– Gross Longs:	81,394	124,919	20,499
– Gross Shorts:	33,725	177,549	15,538
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	80.9	45.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-19.1	1.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	52.1	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	65.6	8.7
– Net Position:	24,926	-40,022	15,096
– Gross Longs:	46,048	154,772	41,070
– Gross Shorts:	21,122	194,794	25,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	28.6	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-18.4	-4.1

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	75.0	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	56.2	0.1
– Net Position:	-12,887	12,595	292
– Gross Longs:	15,330	50,098	339
– Gross Shorts:	28,217	37,503	47
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	7.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	41.7	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	20.6	1.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing

20 Aug

Dow Jones Stock Mini Speculator bets improve for 3rd week to 27-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data for Week 33 is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33 – Dow Jones Stock gains

COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had lower contracts.

Recording the only positive gains for stock markets this week was the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini with a total gain of 5,745 contracts.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-43,723 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-14,229 contracts), the MSCI EAFE Mini (-13,310 contracts), the VIX (-3,974 contracts), the Russell 2000 Mini (-3,598 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-303 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

The Dow Jones Stock Index Mini, one of the most widely-watched stock market indices and made up of 30 large publicly-traded companies, rose this week for a third straight week. Speculator bets for the Dow have also now gained in seven out of the past eight weeks for a total gain of +18,508 contracts in that period. Overall, the speculator bets have been in bearish territory since January 4th but the recent improvement has brought the current spec position (-6,965 contracts) to the least bearish level since February 15th, a span of 27 weeks. The Dow Jones Stock Mini futures hit a four-month high this week above 34,000 but ended the week with a small loss.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-16-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,346,224	10	-287,984	3	354,217	100	-66,233	12
Nikkei 225	14,751	11	-4,563	56	3,271	46	1,292	45
Nasdaq-Mini	267,796	53	6,846	79	15,522	36	-22,368	2
DowJones-Mini	81,037	43	-6,965	29	9,366	72	-2,401	26
VIX	366,823	46	-102,169	58	105,269	40	-3,100	76
Nikkei 225 Yen	58,199	41	5,968	52	19,496	78	-25,464	22

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (78.9 percent) leads the stocks currently and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). On the downside, the EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent), the Russell2000-Mini (2.0 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels for speculators (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (58.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (10.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (21.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (2.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (57.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (21.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks currently. The Dow Jones trend has gained from a 16.5 percent trend score last week. The Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and is up from a -4.6 percent score last week. The VIX (-28.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the S&P500-Mini (-19.3 percent) followed by the Nasdaq-Mini (-13.4 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-13.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-28.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-19.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-4.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-13.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-12.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	59.5	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	30.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-102,169	105,269	-3,100
– Gross Longs:	48,445	218,263	24,376
– Gross Shorts:	150,614	112,994	27,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.1	40.4	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.3	25.8	18.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -287,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	77.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	62.7	12.5
– Net Position:	-287,984	354,217	-66,233
– Gross Longs:	227,370	1,826,100	227,544
– Gross Shorts:	515,354	1,471,883	293,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	100.0	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	18.4	-5.9

Dow Jones Stock Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	54.0	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	42.5	19.4
– Net Position:	-6,965	9,366	-2,401
– Gross Longs:	23,215	43,795	13,286
– Gross Shorts:	30,180	34,429	15,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	71.6	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-24.4	11.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	57.6	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	51.8	19.6
– Net Position:	6,846	15,522	-22,368
– Gross Longs:	78,401	154,315	30,163
– Gross Shorts:	71,555	138,793	52,531
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	36.1	2.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	25.5	-35.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -116,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	88.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	66.0	4.6
– Net Position:	-116,465	118,367	-1,902
– Gross Longs:	32,034	466,874	22,592
– Gross Shorts:	148,499	348,507	24,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.0	97.1	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-2.7	9.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	53.9	30.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.4	31.7	21.7
– Net Position:	-4,563	3,271	1,292
– Gross Longs:	2,278	7,948	4,489
– Gross Shorts:	6,841	4,677	3,197
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	46.0	44.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	0.3	34.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -36,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	92.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	83.7	1.6
– Net Position:	-36,158	33,865	2,293
– Gross Longs:	19,133	357,541	8,342
– Gross Shorts:	55,291	323,676	6,049
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	9.6	-52.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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