Archive for investing – Page 4

17 Sep

Weekly Soft Commodities Speculator bets led higher by Soybeans, Sugar and Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Soybeans, Sugar and Corn

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while XX markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybeans (10,859 contracts) and Sugar (10,559 contracts) with Corn (8,022 contracts), Soybean Meal (7,042 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,799 contracts), Live Cattle (5,590 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,821 contracts) and Wheat (1,631 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,338 contracts) and Coffee (-4,901 contracts) with Cotton (-2,672 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (91.0 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (75.4 percent) and Corn (67.7 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (8.5 percent) and Cocoa (11.0 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (66.6 percent)
Sugar (50.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (48.5 percent)
Coffee (75.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (79.6 percent)
Soybeans (41.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (91.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (87.1 percent)
Live Cattle (65.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (58.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (46.3 percent)
Cotton (49.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.2 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.3 percent)
Wheat (8.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (39.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (16.6 percent), Coffee (13.0 percent) and Corn (11.9 percent) fill out the next highest top movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-9.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Cocoa (-3.9 percent) followed by Lean Hogs (-0.6 percent) and Soybeans (-0.1 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (12.8 percent)
Sugar (7.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.3 percent)
Coffee (13.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybeans (-0.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.3 percent)
Live Cattle (39.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.0 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.0 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.0 percent)
Wheat (-9.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 286,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.444.98.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.962.813.5
– Net Position:294,569-234,179-60,390
– Gross Longs:424,311588,143116,795
– Gross Shorts:129,742822,322177,185
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.738.58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-12.1-4.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.354.19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.264.67.5
– Net Position:68,330-79,42611,096
– Gross Longs:182,761406,40967,735
– Gross Shorts:114,431485,83556,639
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.753.121.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-8.412.7

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.747.44.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.369.83.6
– Net Position:42,267-44,3602,093
– Gross Longs:54,74993,6139,237
– Gross Shorts:12,482137,9737,144
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.429.018.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-14.912.9

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.454.26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.163.811.0
– Net Position:92,110-61,424-30,686
– Gross Longs:163,326348,79540,216
– Gross Shorts:71,216410,21970,902
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.767.819.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.11.3-6.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 54,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.751.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.067.25.6
– Net Position:54,581-64,4179,836
– Gross Longs:86,257203,17032,312
– Gross Shorts:31,676267,58722,476
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.459.750.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.6-20.632.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 114,177 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.242.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.478.26.6
– Net Position:114,177-137,76623,589
– Gross Longs:127,398162,43748,950
– Gross Shorts:13,221300,20325,361
– Long to Short Ratio:9.6 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.011.355.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-2.96.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.032.810.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.153.912.5
– Net Position:68,420-62,992-5,428
– Gross Longs:116,37597,89631,907
– Gross Shorts:47,955160,88837,335
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.227.066.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.5-35.6-20.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 39,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.036.79.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.351.913.9
– Net Position:39,162-30,253-8,909
– Gross Longs:75,48072,96618,664
– Gross Shorts:36,318103,21927,573
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.457.750.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.61.9-5.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 48,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,672 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.845.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.971.73.7
– Net Position:48,040-54,6856,645
– Gross Longs:74,99295,65914,436
– Gross Shorts:26,952150,3447,791
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.350.653.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-10.231.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.846.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.746.03.6
– Net Position:-5,8741,9173,957
– Gross Longs:98,670140,38814,705
– Gross Shorts:104,544138,47110,748
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.089.436.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.91.820.7

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.741.59.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.537.011.5
– Net Position:-8,12812,977-4,849
– Gross Longs:88,091119,21928,202
– Gross Shorts:96,219106,24233,051
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.578.185.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.63.027.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities
17 Sep

Natural Gas and Gasoline lead the COT Energy Speculator bets lower

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Natural Gas and Gasoline

The COT energy market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil  with a total gain on the week of 12,579 contracts.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-7,077 contracts), Gasoline (-3,574 contracts) and Brent Crude Oil (-2,635 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,796 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (-14 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,498,0593227,0574-244,0079816,95028
Gold463,674397,3442-110,9389913,5949
Silver135,5303-4,6409-2,551937,1914
Copper157,9000-18,9862320,51280-1,52616
Palladium6,0851-1,273161,45583-18233
Platinum68,57436-1,8797-2,051933,93017
Natural Gas977,1164-145,71535110,7946634,92163
Brent164,41512-39,0234634,919514,10465
Heating Oil290,9163116,06466-31,3533815,28951
Soybeans643,0181592,11042-61,42468-30,68619
Corn1,310,4116294,56968-234,17939-60,3908
Coffee197,6571042,26775-44,360292,09319
Sugar751,873968,33051-79,4265311,09622
Wheat287,0460-8,128812,97778-4,84985

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) and Heating Oil (66.1 percent) lead the energy markets. These two markets are the only ones in energy that are above the 3-year midpoint at the current time (above 50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by Gasoline (17.6 percent) and both are in bearish extreme readings (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (1.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (45.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (34.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.0 percent)
Gasoline (17.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.2 percent)
Heating Oil (66.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (68.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is followed by Heating Oil (-8.8 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent), Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) and Gasoline (-5.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-7.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.1 percent)
Gasoline (-5.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (3.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-8.8 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-1.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (20.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 227,057 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,579 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.740.15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.656.43.9
– Net Position:227,057-244,00716,950
– Gross Longs:340,716600,61875,790
– Gross Shorts:113,659844,62558,840
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.398.428.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.07.8-3.6

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -39,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.753.75.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.432.53.3
– Net Position:-39,02334,9194,104
– Gross Longs:27,45588,3219,542
– Gross Shorts:66,47853,4025,438
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.751.364.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.55.142.7

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -145,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.042.86.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.931.53.3
– Net Position:-145,715110,79434,921
– Gross Longs:155,945418,58067,120
– Gross Shorts:301,660307,78632,199
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.865.862.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.27.3-5.8

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.548.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.267.07.1
– Net Position:45,592-45,909317
– Gross Longs:76,103121,49118,029
– Gross Shorts:30,511167,40017,712
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.687.314.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.210.9-41.0

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.155.014.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.665.89.0
– Net Position:16,064-31,35315,289
– Gross Longs:41,005160,00041,349
– Gross Shorts:24,941191,35326,060
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.137.951.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.84.36.8

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.970.40.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.255.60.2
– Net Position:-10,43410,122312
– Gross Longs:18,40248,090447
– Gross Shorts:28,83637,968135
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.632.221.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4-8.73.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing
17 Sep

COT Stock Market Speculator bets sharply down led by S&P500 Mini & the Nasdaq Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the S&P500 Mini & the Nasdaq Mini

The COT stock market speculator bets had a down week this week as all of the seven stock markets we cover had lower positioning.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-42,284 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-10,240 contracts), VIX (-9,792 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-6,664 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-3,547 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-2,078 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also recording lower bets for the week.

Overall, the stock markets we cover all have current negative or bearish net positioning with the exception of the Nasdaq Mini.

Highlighting the weakness in sentiment is the S&P500 Mini which has hit its lowest speculative positioning (-281,004 contracts currently) in the past 117 weeks, dating back to June of 2020. The S&P500 Mini speculator positions have now been below the -200,000 contract threshold for ten straight weeks. The S&P Mini has been in a bearish level for thirteen consecutive weeks since turning bearish on June 21st.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-13-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,603,04620-281,0044370,284100-89,2808
Nikkei 22514,15110-4,641552,949441,69250
Nasdaq-Mini314,9698011,8068215,54536-27,3510
DowJones-Mini92,57759-11,6862313,52277-1,83629
VIX348,67241-98,52660105,68041-7,15457
Nikkei 225 Yen46,260231,0333721,75480-22,78728

 

Nasdaq-Mini, VIX and Nikkei lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini continues to leads the stocks with an 81.6 percent score. The Nasdaq strength score in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent) but has been sliding over the past few weeks. The VIX (59.9 percent) and the Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores and their scores are above the 3-year midpoints (50 percent).

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level followed by the Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) and both markets are in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (64.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (22.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (81.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (13.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (27.8 percent)

EAFE, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EAFE-Mini (15.4 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The DowJones-Mini (9.0 percent) and the VIX (0.2 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the S&P500-Mini (-9.1 percent) followed by the Nasdaq-Mini (-7.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (0.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (15.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-7.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-5.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -98,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.258.98.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.428.610.3
– Net Position:-98,526105,680-7,154
– Gross Longs:42,480205,32528,804
– Gross Shorts:141,00699,64535,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.940.656.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-0.1-0.1

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -281,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -42,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.076.310.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.862.114.3
– Net Position:-281,004370,284-89,280
– Gross Longs:234,7951,986,386282,571
– Gross Shorts:515,7991,616,102371,851
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.1100.07.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.110.5-5.9

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.357.613.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.943.015.0
– Net Position:-11,68613,522-1,836
– Gross Longs:20,66253,29812,067
– Gross Shorts:32,34839,77613,903
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.777.128.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-12.614.5

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 11,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.958.212.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.321.0
– Net Position:11,80615,545-27,351
– Gross Longs:75,279183,44038,679
– Gross Shorts:63,473167,89566,030
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.636.10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.215.2-22.4

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -99,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.486.34.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.367.86.0
– Net Position:-99,152107,746-8,594
– Gross Longs:37,156504,08026,407
– Gross Shorts:136,308396,33435,001
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.791.61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.7-8.2-15.5

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.253.334.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.032.522.3
– Net Position:-4,6412,9491,692
– Gross Longs:1,7297,5484,844
– Gross Shorts:6,3704,5993,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.444.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.8-1.337.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.290.05.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.886.84.8
– Net Position:-17,43215,6271,805
– Gross Longs:20,356438,60725,389
– Gross Shorts:37,788422,98023,584
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.580.434.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-11.4-30.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Stock Market News
11 Sep

COT Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

By InvestMacro

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large forex speculators raised their bets for most of the currency futures markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian real (22,001 contracts) and the Euro (11,327 contracts) with the Australian dollar (893 contracts), US Dollar Index (592 contracts), New Zealand dollar (378 contracts) and the Bitcoin (26 contracts) having positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the British pound sterling (-21,262 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-16,658 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-6,269 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,775 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-430 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the sharp gain in the Brazilian Real speculator positions this week. Speculators boosted the Brazilian currency bets by the largest weekly amount since March and have increased bullish bets in six out of the past eight weeks. The overall speculator standing now sits at the most bullish level in ten weeks, dating back to June 28th. The Real futures and spot prices have been range-bound in trading and are expected to stay that way as a presidential election comes up on October 2nd.

The Euro currency bets this week jumped by the most in fourteen weeks (+11,327 contracts) as the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on Thursday. This week’s gain broke a streak of three weeks of speculator bet declines. The overall speculator positioning is relatively tame at a level of just -36,349 contracts despite the Euro currency’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar. The EURUSD is currently trading right near parity (1.0048) and not too far from 20-year lows. Comparatively, when the Euro speculator positions were last consistently near or below -100,000 net contracts in 2019, the EURUSD was trading above the 1.20 exchange rate. The outlook for the European economy is not looking great as a low growth environment could combine with a potential energy crisis shaping up for this winter (due to the Russia-Ukraine war) – so it will be interesting to see if speculator positioning follows the Euro lower or if the exchange rate is near a bottom.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index61,6629236,10785-38,458152,35142
EUR721,67891-36,3492419,6108216,7392
GBP280,937100-50,4322969,95878-19,5266
JPY281,266100-58,1893377,66974-19,48014
CHF48,22637-4,0374616,86770-12,83014
CAD160,5673717,91059-18,916531,00632
AUD178,23266-56,5003263,78466-7,28435
NZD46,79637-2,746676,50040-3,7548
MXN199,16149-29,4601525,310834,15061
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL50,0054030,86081-32,482201,62284
Bitcoin15,337901,322100-1,3010-2112

 

Bitcoin, US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real at top of Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (100.0 percent), the US Dollar Index (85.2 percent) and the Brazilian Real (80.7 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are all in bullish extreme positions with scores above 80 percent. The New Zealand Dollar (66.7 percent) and Canadian Dollar (59.5 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (14.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level below 20 percent. The next lowest strength scores are for the EuroFX (23.8 percent), the British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (32.4 percent).

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (85.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (84.2 percent)
EuroFX (23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (20.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (43.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (50.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (66.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (66.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazil Real (80.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (59.1 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (99.5 percent)

Bitcoin, Real and Swiss Franc lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Bitcoin (25.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (18.8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) fill out the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-8.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the only other market with a lower trend scores was the US Dollar Index (-7.4 percent).

Currency Speculator Weekly Changes led higher by Brazilian Real & Euro bets

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.9 percent)
EuroFX (1.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-1.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (21.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (2.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (2.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.7 percent)
Brazil Real (18.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-1.6 percent)
Bitcoin (25.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 36,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:85.33.18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.865.55.1
– Net Position:36,107-38,4582,351
– Gross Longs:52,6071,9125,476
– Gross Shorts:16,50040,3703,125
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.214.742.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.47.7-4.7

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -36,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.456.711.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.554.09.2
– Net Position:-36,34919,61016,739
– Gross Longs:205,277409,46083,493
– Gross Shorts:241,626389,85066,754
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.881.62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.60.3-10.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.867.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.742.615.0
– Net Position:-50,43269,958-19,526
– Gross Longs:52,731189,61722,607
– Gross Shorts:103,163119,65942,133
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.278.46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-0.7-5.8

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.968.08.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.640.315.5
– Net Position:-58,18977,669-19,480
– Gross Longs:56,002191,13824,109
– Gross Shorts:114,191113,46943,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.073.513.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.01.9-14.6

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.655.119.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.920.146.6
– Net Position:-4,03716,867-12,830
– Gross Longs:10,88226,5849,620
– Gross Shorts:14,9199,71722,450
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 12.7 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.370.414.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-6.0-11.9

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 17,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,179 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.641.420.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.553.219.9
– Net Position:17,910-18,9161,006
– Gross Longs:57,18566,48533,039
– Gross Shorts:39,27585,40132,033
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.553.032.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.42.7-10.9

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.766.710.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.430.915.0
– Net Position:-56,50063,784-7,284
– Gross Longs:33,305118,81719,403
– Gross Shorts:89,80555,03326,687
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.466.534.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.59.8-9.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.755.35.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.541.513.4
– Net Position:-2,7466,500-3,754
– Gross Longs:17,16525,9002,540
– Gross Shorts:19,91119,4006,294
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.740.48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-1.7-3.8

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.845.63.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.632.91.6
– Net Position:-29,46025,3104,150
– Gross Longs:97,11290,8827,269
– Gross Shorts:126,57265,5723,119
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.883.460.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-0.64.7

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 22,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.914.46.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.279.33.5
– Net Position:30,860-32,4821,622
– Gross Longs:39,4517,1773,374
– Gross Shorts:8,59139,6591,752
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.719.683.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-19.48.5

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,296 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:83.10.46.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.58.96.4
– Net Position:1,322-1,301-21
– Gross Longs:12,74363956
– Gross Shorts:11,4211,364977
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.01.312.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.2-57.5-5.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our Weekly COT Newsletter by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

 

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions
11 Sep

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro 

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculator positioning was lower across the board. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes are lower led by Gold & Silver

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-13,877 contracts) with Silver (-4,513 contracts), Platinum (-1,373 contracts), Copper (-735 contracts) and Palladium (-473 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the continued decline in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculative bets have declined for four straight weeks and by a total of -38,994 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has brought the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +103,857 contracts) to the lowest level in six weeks, dating back to July 26th. The average speculator position over 2022 has been a total of +185,566 contracts and compared to this week’s position, illustrates the weakness in speculator sentiment for Gold. The futures price is currently in a downtrend after hitting a high over $2,078 in March of this year and closed this week at $1,728.

The Silver speculative positioning has continued to fall lower. The Silver speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and have now been in a bearish position for three straight weeks as well. The overall speculator standing is currently at -12,784 contracts which is the lowest or most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver futures price has dipped below $18 in recent weeks but has found consistent support at that level. This week the Silver price closed higher for the week at $18.75 following three straight weeks of decline.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,480,3201214,4781-240,4179925,93943
Gold465,9084103,8574-114,0649810,2070
Silver138,3005-12,78405,0551007,7296
Copper160,2512-23,9901926,82084-2,8309
Palladium6,0651-1,602142,12987-52713
Platinum78,61053-6,75103,1521003,59912
Natural Gas984,6425-138,63837105,8026432,83658
Brent163,66611-36,3885032,508473,88062
Heating Oil280,2102717,86069-36,0893318,22962
Soybeans606,187781,25138-50,82671-30,42520
Corn1,280,0872286,54767-230,70239-55,84511
Coffee193,938747,16880-49,276252,10819
Sugar760,6011157,77149-61,944564,17313
Wheat289,3290-9,759613,67779-3,91890

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets are currently in bearish extreme scores under 20 percent. Copper (18.8 percent) is at the highest level of the metals currently followed by Palladium (13.8 percent) and Gold (4.3 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) and Platinum (0.0 percent) are currently at the bottom of their 3-year ranges of strength scores.

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.8 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (4.3 percent) and Copper (2.0 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-9.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Platinum at -3.1 percent.

COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-9.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.6 percent)
Copper (2.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.5 percent)
Platinum (-3.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.5 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 103,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.727.88.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.452.36.1
– Net Position:103,857-114,06410,207
– Gross Longs:231,527129,68338,798
– Gross Shorts:127,670243,74728,591
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.398.00.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-2.0-14.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.440.416.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.636.710.8
– Net Position:-12,7845,0557,729
– Gross Longs:51,71455,82322,687
– Gross Shorts:64,49850,76814,958
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.06.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.17.32.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.151.27.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.034.59.6
– Net Position:-23,99026,820-2,830
– Gross Longs:46,58182,03812,521
– Gross Shorts:70,57155,21815,351
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.884.38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.0-0.0-14.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.738.710.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.334.75.6
– Net Position:-6,7513,1523,599
– Gross Longs:33,59830,4518,025
– Gross Shorts:40,34927,2994,426
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.012.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.14.2-14.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.262.914.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.627.822.9
– Net Position:-1,6022,129-527
– Gross Longs:1,3443,814863
– Gross Shorts:2,9461,6851,390
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.886.713.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-9.9-2.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions
11 Sep

COT Bonds Speculator bets led lower this week by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

By InvestMacro

COT Bonds Open Interest Comparison

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that bond speculators mostly lowered their positioning for this week. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by the Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

COT Bonds Speculator bets led lower this week by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (74,748 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (63,826 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (59,565 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Fed Funds (-66,116 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-45,142 contracts), the Long US Bond (-16,383 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-4,726 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,621 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,566,53214-2,782,65423,146,67197-364,01724
FedFunds1,379,7843218,65042-9,12859-9,52235
2-Year1,954,4278-326,74216412,994100-86,25213
Long T-Bond1,209,34046-85,2175764,1743321,04369
10-Year3,545,99533-376,27715490,28180-114,00453
5-Year4,009,30952-505,8919659,34994-153,45839

 

US Treasury Bond at top of Strength Scores, Eurodollar lowest

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond leads the bonds markets and is the only market above the midpoint of its 3-year range at 56.9 percent. The Fed Funds (41.9 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bond (39.4 percent).

On the downside, the Eurodollar (1.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the 5-Year Bond (9.0 percent), the 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (16.3 percent). All of these markets are currently in extreme bearish levels with scores below 20 percent.

COT Bonds Speculator bets led lower this week by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (41.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (50.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (22.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (24.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (56.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (62.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (39.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (40.1 percent)
Eurodollar (1.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.5 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bond is only market with positive Strength Trend

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds and is the only market with a positive six-week trend score.

The 2-Year Bond (-47.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with the lowest trend scores was the 5-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) followed by the 10-Year Bond (-26.8 percent) and the Fed Funds (-15.9 percent).

COT Bonds Speculator bets led lower this week by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bond

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-15.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-47.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-44.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-46.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-26.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-50.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.1 percent)
Eurodollar (-1.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-3.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,782,654 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 74,748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,857,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.970.24.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.037.37.9
– Net Position:-2,782,6543,146,671-364,017
– Gross Longs:661,7736,716,597396,477
– Gross Shorts:3,444,4273,569,926760,494
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.9 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.997.324.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.83.4-19.9

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -66,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.073.02.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.673.73.0
– Net Position:18,650-9,128-9,522
– Gross Longs:178,7641,007,42431,787
– Gross Shorts:160,1141,016,55241,309
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.958.835.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.915.8-4.8

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -326,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -45,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -281,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.684.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.363.311.8
– Net Position:-326,742412,994-86,252
– Gross Longs:89,2231,650,101143,560
– Gross Shorts:415,9651,237,107229,812
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.3100.012.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-47.850.1-6.5

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -505,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 59,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -565,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.684.27.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.267.711.4
– Net Position:-505,891659,349-153,458
– Gross Longs:264,3843,375,543304,706
– Gross Shorts:770,2752,716,194458,164
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.093.738.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.925.5-5.1

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -376,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 63,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -440,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.979.79.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.565.812.7
– Net Position:-376,277490,281-114,004
– Gross Longs:279,8652,824,708336,063
– Gross Shorts:656,1422,334,427450,067
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.280.153.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.826.6-11.3

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.479.89.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.169.118.8
– Net Position:-22,712143,014-120,302
– Gross Longs:85,7671,064,996130,034
– Gross Shorts:108,479921,982250,336
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.977.047.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.1-2.1-0.0

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.076.213.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.070.812.1
– Net Position:-85,21764,17421,043
– Gross Longs:72,558920,966167,960
– Gross Shorts:157,775856,792146,917
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.933.569.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.612.62.6

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -357,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -355,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.282.210.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.558.18.8
– Net Position:-357,415327,74829,667
– Gross Longs:70,7131,118,090148,948
– Gross Shorts:428,128790,342119,281
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.475.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.912.8-13.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News investing
11 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets trend lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Soft Commodities Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes go lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets trend lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

COT soft commodities speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other eight markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (3,150 contracts) with Live Cattle (3,099 contracts) and Wheat (1,740 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-9,054 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-6,858 contracts), Soybean Oil (-5,176 contracts), Sugar (-4,780 contracts), Cocoa (-3,847 contracts), Soybeans (-2,311 contracts), Coffee (-1,519 contracts) and Cotton (-1,055 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,480,3201214,4781-240,4179925,93943
Gold465,9084103,8574-114,0649810,2070
Silver138,3005-12,78405,0551007,7296
Copper160,2512-23,9901926,82084-2,8309
Palladium6,0651-1,602142,12987-52713
Platinum78,61053-6,75103,1521003,59912
Natural Gas984,6425-138,63837105,8026432,83658
Brent163,66611-36,3885032,508473,88062
Heating Oil280,2102717,86069-36,0893318,22962
Soybeans606,187781,25138-50,82671-30,42520
Corn1,280,0872286,54767-230,70239-55,84511
Coffee193,938747,16880-49,276252,10819
Sugar760,6011157,77149-61,944564,17313
Wheat289,3290-9,759613,67779-3,91890

 

Soybean Meal and Coffee lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (87.1 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position with a score above 80 percent. Coffee (79.6 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores followed by Corn (66.6 percent) and Live Cattle (58.1 percent).

On the downside, Wheat (6.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and remains as the only market in a bearish extreme level with a score under 20 percent. The next lowest is Cocoa (21.3 percent) followed by Soybean Oil (36.4 percent).

COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets trend lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (66.2 percent)
Sugar (48.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (49.5 percent)
Coffee (79.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.9 percent)
Soybeans (38.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (39.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (87.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.2 percent)
Live Cattle (58.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (54.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.8 percent)
Cotton (51.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (51.9 percent)
Cocoa (21.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (25.1 percent)
Wheat (6.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (4.1 percent)

Live Cattle and Soybean Oil at top of Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (33.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (19.1 percent), Coffee (16.0 percent) and Corn (12.8 percent) fill out the next highest movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-12.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Sugar (-1.3 percent) followed by Soybeans at -1.2 percent.

COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets trend lower led by Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-1.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.3 percent)
Coffee (16.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.9 percent)
Soybeans (-1.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.6 percent)
Live Cattle (33.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (1.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (14.8 percent)
Cotton (8.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.7 percent)
Cocoa (1.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.8 percent)
Wheat (-12.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-23.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 286,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.846.19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.464.213.5
– Net Position:286,547-230,702-55,845
– Gross Longs:406,895590,573116,649
– Gross Shorts:120,348821,275172,494
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.639.010.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.8-13.1-4.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 57,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.453.98.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.962.07.8
– Net Position:57,771-61,9444,173
– Gross Longs:178,344409,71863,249
– Gross Shorts:120,573471,66259,076
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.556.413.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.30.73.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.545.44.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.270.83.7
– Net Position:47,168-49,2762,108
– Gross Longs:59,22488,0139,278
– Gross Shorts:12,056137,2897,170
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.624.518.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.0-18.517.2

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 81,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.155.26.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.663.511.3
– Net Position:81,251-50,826-30,425
– Gross Longs:151,858334,37537,854
– Gross Shorts:70,607385,20168,279
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.371.119.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.1-4.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 48,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.852.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.466.26.4
– Net Position:48,782-55,1466,364
– Gross Longs:81,987205,20331,353
– Gross Shorts:33,205260,34924,989
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.465.537.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.1-19.914.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 107,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.443.711.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.876.36.5
– Net Position:107,135-126,64619,511
– Gross Longs:125,905170,12244,983
– Gross Shorts:18,770296,76825,472
– Long to Short Ratio:6.7 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.117.134.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3-0.1-1.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,731 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.632.310.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.452.511.6
– Net Position:62,830-59,885-2,945
– Gross Longs:111,43395,82431,503
– Gross Shorts:48,603155,70934,448
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.131.375.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-34.3-6.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,858 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.337.38.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.650.812.0
– Net Position:36,341-29,399-6,942
– Gross Longs:79,13881,38419,248
– Gross Shorts:42,797110,78326,190
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.358.760.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-2.66.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 50,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.644.76.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.772.03.5
– Net Position:50,712-57,8507,138
– Gross Longs:77,52294,45814,536
– Gross Shorts:26,810152,3087,398
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.248.656.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-10.631.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.247.24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.749.63.6
– Net Position:4,464-7,2242,760
– Gross Longs:93,816137,46313,152
– Gross Shorts:89,352144,68710,392
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.380.424.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-2.110.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.641.910.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.037.211.4
– Net Position:-9,75913,677-3,918
– Gross Longs:88,611121,26529,169
– Gross Shorts:98,370107,58833,087
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.479.190.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.78.021.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities
11 Sep

COT Energy Speculators Weekly Bets led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

By InvestMacro

Energy Futures Open Interest Comparison

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculators reduced their positioning in the energy markets. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

COT Energy Speculators Weekly Bets led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (3,625 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,147 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-14,711 contracts) and Natural Gas (-9,873 contracts) with Heating Oil (-7,336 contracts) and Gasoline (-536 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,480,3201214,4781-240,4179925,93943
Gold465,9084103,8574-114,0649810,2070
Silver138,3005-12,78405,0551007,7296
Copper160,2512-23,9901926,82084-2,8309
Palladium6,0651-1,602142,12987-52713
Platinum78,61053-6,75103,1521003,59912
Natural Gas984,6425-138,63837105,8026432,83658
Brent163,66611-36,3885032,508473,88062
Heating Oil280,2102717,86069-36,0893318,22962
Soybeans606,187781,25138-50,82671-30,42520
Corn1,280,0872286,54767-230,70239-55,84511
Coffee193,938747,16880-49,276252,10819
Sugar760,6011157,77149-61,944564,17313
Wheat289,3290-9,759613,67779-3,91890

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (68.7 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) lead the energy markets currently. Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores and above the 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

COT Energy Speculators Weekly Bets led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (44.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (39.9 percent)
Gasoline (21.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (21.7 percent)
Heating Oil (68.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (67.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) and Gasoline (3.8 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) followed by Heating Oil (-1.2 percent).

COT Energy Speculators Weekly Bets led lower by WTI Crude & Natural Gas

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (2.2 percent)
Natural Gas (-6.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-2.5 percent)
Gasoline (3.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.9 percent)
Heating Oil (-1.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (23.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (20.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (6.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 214,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.040.55.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.556.83.6
– Net Position:214,478-240,41725,939
– Gross Longs:326,007599,68978,942
– Gross Shorts:111,529840,10653,003
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.099.443.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.811.62.8

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,625 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,013 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.652.65.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.832.82.8
– Net Position:-36,38832,5083,880
– Gross Longs:28,73586,1268,497
– Gross Shorts:65,12353,6184,617
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.147.361.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.6-13.440.0

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -138,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.642.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.731.53.4
– Net Position:-138,638105,80232,836
– Gross Longs:163,659416,04166,617
– Gross Shorts:302,297310,23933,781
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.064.257.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.17.2-5.7

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 49,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,702 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.747.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.568.16.5
– Net Position:49,166-50,7381,572
– Gross Longs:79,830115,59117,453
– Gross Shorts:30,664166,32915,881
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.282.723.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-0.4-22.3

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.053.515.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.766.48.5
– Net Position:17,860-36,08918,229
– Gross Longs:42,125149,86242,127
– Gross Shorts:24,265185,95123,898
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.732.861.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.2-2.711.7

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.273.80.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.258.20.1
– Net Position:-10,42010,122298
– Gross Longs:15,69647,944388
– Gross Shorts:26,11637,82290
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 14.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.632.221.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.1-20.31.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing
11 Sep

Stock Market Speculator bets lower this week led by Dow Jones Mini & Nasdaq Mini

By InvestMacro

COT Stock Futures Open Interest Comparison

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that stock market speculators added bearish bets on the week. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Dow Jones Mini (-8,188 contracts) & Nasdaq Mini (-4,761 contracts)

Stock Market Speculator bets lower this week led by Dow Jones Mini & Nasdaq Mini

The COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the VIX (9,201 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE Mini (3,096 contracts) and the S&P500 Mini (912 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-8,188 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-4,761 contracts) with the Russell 2000 Mini (-4,456 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-06-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,314,2908-238,72012301,28293-62,56213
Nikkei 22514,15110-4,641552,949441,69250
Nasdaq-Mini286,7546422,046871,86928-23,9150
DowJones-Mini76,72637-9,6082510,38673-77834
VIX326,47635-88,7346595,21135-6,47760
Nikkei 225 Yen77,78169-2,6222632,959100-30,33712

 

Nasdaq-Mini & VIX lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (87.3 percent) remains the strength leader in stocks and continues to be in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (64.8 percent) comes in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (12.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Russell 2000-Mini (13.7 percent). Both of these markets are below 20 percent and currently in a bearish extreme level.

Stock Market Speculator bets lower this week led by Dow Jones Mini & Nasdaq Mini

Strength Statistics:
VIX (64.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (12.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (25.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (36.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (87.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (13.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini leads Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (15.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The EAFE-Mini (6.6 percent), the Russell 2000-Mini (5.4 percent) and the VIX (1.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nasdaq-Mini (-5.5 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-0.2 percent).

Stock Market Speculator bets lower this week led by Dow Jones Mini & Nasdaq Mini

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (1.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-14.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-5.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (15.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-5.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (13.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -88,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.259.67.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.430.59.2
– Net Position:-88,73495,211-6,477
– Gross Longs:43,204194,65223,450
– Gross Shorts:131,93899,44129,927
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.835.559.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.9-2.12.3

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -238,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -239,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.877.39.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.164.312.5
– Net Position:-238,720301,282-62,562
– Gross Longs:226,3741,789,211227,788
– Gross Shorts:465,0941,487,929290,350
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.092.713.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.21.5-2.1

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.352.915.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.839.416.7
– Net Position:-9,60810,386-778
– Gross Longs:23,23040,61312,001
– Gross Shorts:32,83830,22712,779
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.572.934.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-22.427.5

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.855.912.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.155.220.8
– Net Position:22,0461,869-23,915
– Gross Longs:85,430160,21635,685
– Gross Shorts:63,384158,34759,600
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.327.70.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.516.8-35.9

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -95,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.386.04.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.968.24.4
– Net Position:-95,60596,814-1,209
– Gross Longs:44,891466,37822,920
– Gross Shorts:140,496369,56424,129
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.785.923.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-6.911.0

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.253.334.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.032.522.3
– Net Position:-4,6412,9491,692
– Gross Longs:1,7297,5484,844
– Gross Shorts:6,3704,5993,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.444.449.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.8-1.337.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.791.42.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.489.31.6
– Net Position:-10,7688,6432,125
– Gross Longs:23,221370,7988,690
– Gross Shorts:33,989362,1556,565
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.872.937.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.5-8.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter by Email

*COT Reports: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News investing Stock Market News
03 Sep

Australian dollar, Brazilian Real lead Forex Speculators bets while Euro bets hit 130-week low

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Currency Futures Open Interest Comparison

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT Reports data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Australian dollar, Brazilian Real lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

Currency Futures Large Speculator Net Position Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar (2,635 contracts) with the Brazilian real (2,494 contracts), Mexican peso (2,286 contracts), Canadian dollar (952 contracts), US Dollar Index (416 contracts), Bitcoin (332 contracts) and the Swiss franc (143 contracts) also having higher bets on the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Euro (-3,567 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-2,724 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-1,650 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-1,204 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculator Positioning Notes:

Highlighting the COT Reports (Week 35) changes this week was the Brazilian real’s gains in speculator bets. The Brazilian currency has now seen higher bullish bets in three out of the past four weeks and in five out of the past seven weeks as well. Speculators had previous strong sentiment for the real in February and March with bullish bets hitting an all-time record high in March above the +50,000 contracts level. However, the bullish strength only last a few months as sharp declines hit the real in July and resulted in a net bearish position of -1,130 contracts on August 2nd. Since then, speculators have started to build back their bullish positions and pushed the current standing to +8,859 contracts this week.

Australian dollar contracts rose this week but are looking like just a small rebound after a long bearish streak. The Aussie speculator bets had fallen for six straight weeks and pushed the overall net position to the most bearish level since March 8th, a span of twenty-four weeks. Overall, the Australian dollar’s speculative position has now been in a bearish standing for sixty-seven straight weeks, dating back to May 25th of 2021.

The Swiss franc speculator positions this week improved for a fourth consecutive week and are now at the least bearish level in just about a year. The overall net standing for the franc has been in a bearish position for fifty-one straight weeks, dating back to September 14th of last year.

Finally, the Euro net speculator position declined for a third consecutive week this week and has fallen by a total of -13,140 contracts over that time-frame. These declines have dropped the Euro’s net standing, currently at -47,676 contracts, to the most bearish level in the past one hundred and thirty weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020. The EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen back to below parity after testing these levels in July. The currency pair currently trades near 20-year lows and closed the week at the 0.9956 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-30-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index60,1848935,51584-38,538153,02350
EUR720,08190-47,6762028,8608418,8166
GBP262,00485-29,1704951,49863-22,3280
JPY247,03087-41,5314361,28766-19,75613
CHF47,16835-2,2625115,47168-13,20913
CAD158,1653624,17967-29,039454,86040
AUD169,26759-57,3933262,50366-5,11040
NZD44,37633-3,124666,53340-3,40912
MXN206,82352-29,0301525,765843,26557
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL66,706638,85959-10,922412,06389
Bitcoin14,440841,296100-1,32703114

 

Bitcoin and US Dollar Index lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin Futures (100.0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (84.2 percent) lead the currency markets and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). The Canadian Dollar (66.5 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (66.0 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The next lowest is the Euro (20.4 percent) followed by the Australian Dollar (31.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (43.3 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (83.5 percent)
EuroFX (20.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (21.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (49.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (43.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (50.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (66.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (65.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (29.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (66.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.0 percent)
Brazil Real (59.1 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (56.6 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.2 percent)

Bitcoin, Swiss Franc and British Pound lead the 6-Week Strength Trends

Currency Futures Speculator Strength Trends (6-Weeks)

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Bitcoin (31.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (21.9 percent), the British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19.7 percent) fill out the other top movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-13.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-5.9 percent) followed by the Euro (-1.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.4 percent)
EuroFX (-1.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-5.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (21.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (19.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-17.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.4 percent)
Brazil Real (-1.6 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-3.8 percent)
Bitcoin (31.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:85.93.09.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.867.14.0
– Net Position:35,515-38,5383,023
– Gross Longs:51,6721,8225,431
– Gross Shorts:16,15740,3602,408
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.0 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.214.649.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.94.76.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -47,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.157.211.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.753.28.6
– Net Position:-47,67628,86018,816
– Gross Longs:202,258411,68480,871
– Gross Shorts:249,934382,82462,055
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.484.25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.53.2-10.8

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.366.07.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.546.315.7
– Net Position:-29,17051,498-22,328
– Gross Longs:58,477172,79618,706
– Gross Shorts:87,647121,29841,034
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.162.90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-11.6-21.2

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -41,531 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.166.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.941.616.7
– Net Position:-41,53161,287-19,756
– Gross Longs:54,513163,99121,436
– Gross Shorts:96,044102,70441,192
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.365.613.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-5.8-12.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,405 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.357.516.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.124.744.8
– Net Position:-2,26215,471-13,209
– Gross Longs:11,91527,1137,906
– Gross Shorts:14,17711,64221,115
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 12.3 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.868.212.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-6.0-16.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.139.122.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.857.419.1
– Net Position:24,179-29,0394,860
– Gross Longs:58,70461,82135,000
– Gross Shorts:34,52590,86030,140
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.544.539.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-16.95.6

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -60,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.567.911.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.431.014.1
– Net Position:-57,39362,503-5,110
– Gross Longs:31,304114,95718,758
– Gross Shorts:88,69752,45423,868
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.665.540.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.29.92.5

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.056.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.041.312.8
– Net Position:-3,1246,533-3,409
– Gross Longs:16,40724,8612,266
– Gross Shorts:19,53118,3285,675
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.040.512.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.11.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.146.03.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.133.51.5
– Net Position:-29,03025,7653,265
– Gross Longs:103,62395,0986,441
– Gross Shorts:132,65369,3333,176
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.083.556.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-0.91.7

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 8,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,365 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.649.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.465.42.2
– Net Position:8,859-10,9222,063
– Gross Longs:30,44332,7193,543
– Gross Shorts:21,58443,6411,480
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.7 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.140.688.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.60.611.2

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.60.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:72.69.76.7
– Net Position:1,296-1,32731
– Gross Longs:11,77775996
– Gross Shorts:10,4811,402965
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.013.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.6-61.3-12.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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