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Euro Speculator bets go bullish for 3rd week to lead the COT Changes

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

This data is through Tuesday and one day before the US Federal Reserve lifted the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 3 to 3.25 percent.

Euro & British pound lead Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (45,286 contracts) with the Australian dollar (17,294 contracts), the British pound sterling (13,243 contracts), the Swiss franc (565 contracts) and Bitcoin (451 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-10,369 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-7,738 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-7,288 contracts), the Mexican peso (-2,652 contracts), the Japanese yen (-588 contracts) and the Brazilian real (-584 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Forex data this week was the sharp change in speculator positioning for the Euro again this week. The speculative positioning for the Euro jumped by a total of +45,286 contracts this week following last week’s gain of +24,512 contracts and a rise of +11,327 contracts in the week before that.

Overall, Euro speculator positions have risen by +81,125 contracts in just the past three weeks and have now taken the speculator standing out of bearish territory for the first time in fifteen weeks (current net position of +33,449 contracts). This is a surprising turnabout for this market because speculators (especially in currencies) have tended to be trend-followers historically. They buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling.

The Euro has been on a historic decline with prices hitting levels below parity that have not been touched for approximately twenty years. However, the Euro futures speculators have been going the opposite way and increasing their bullish positioning as the currency falls. Will this positioning hold up? Are the speculators buying at the right time (betting on catching the low)? These interesting questions will resolve themselves in the future but it is an example of a current situation that shows that markets and traders can change their tune or flip usual behavior on its head, at least in the short-term.

The Euro price, meanwhile, followed through lower to close out the week. The EURUSD currency pair fell by more than 3 percent and ended the week at the 0.9692 exchange rate – the lowest level since October of 2002.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	54,292	76	27,931	72	-30,775	27	2,844	48
EUR	657,952	63	33,449	45	-52,310	61	18,861	6
GBP	266,295	77	-54,843	22	73,488	84	-18,645	8
JPY	250,892	81	-81,280	19	97,513	83	-16,233	20
CHF	40,937	23	-6,740	39	12,986	64	-6,246	36
CAD	160,314	37	2,056	42	892	69	-2,948	24
AUD	150,544	45	-40,556	47	52,128	58	-11,572	24
NZD	47,884	39	-12,589	50	16,791	56	-4,202	3
MXN	172,650	36	-28,033	15	23,741	83	4,292	61
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,500	42	32,369	82	-34,071	18	1,702	85
Bitcoin	13,880	80	577	87	-812	0	235	18

Bitcoin and Brazilian Real lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (87.0 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.2 percent) lead the currency markets this week near the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). The US Dollar Index (71.5 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) and the Japanese Yen (18.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in extreme bearish positions.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (71.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (84.4 percent)
EuroFX (45.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (31.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (18.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (39.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (38.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (82.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (82.8 percent)
Bitcoin (87.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.1 percent)

Brazilian Real, Euro and Aussie lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (30.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (20.9 percent), the Australian Dollar (15.8 percent), Bitcoin (14.1 percent) and the Swiss Franc (7.7 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-34.6 percent), Canadian Dollar (-21.5 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-20.7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-17.9 percent) were the leaders in the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.1 percent)
EuroFX (20.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-34.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-21.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-20.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (33.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	60.8	4.9
– Net Position:	27,931	-30,775	2,844
– Gross Longs:	45,704	2,226	5,479
– Gross Shorts:	17,773	33,001	2,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	26.9	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	18.0	-6.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,449 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 45,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	53.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	61.9	8.6
– Net Position:	33,449	-52,310	18,861
– Gross Longs:	206,564	354,891	75,546
– Gross Shorts:	173,115	407,201	56,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	61.2	5.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-18.9	-2.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -54,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 13,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	74.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	46.5	15.2
– Net Position:	-54,843	73,488	-18,645
– Gross Longs:	41,289	197,346	21,738
– Gross Shorts:	96,132	123,858	40,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	84.0	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	14.6	-2.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -81,280 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	75.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	37.0	15.4
– Net Position:	-81,280	97,513	-16,233
– Gross Longs:	34,767	190,267	22,337
– Gross Shorts:	116,047	92,754	38,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	83.2	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.6	29.5	-8.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.0	54.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	22.8	40.7
– Net Position:	-6,740	12,986	-6,246
– Gross Longs:	8,167	22,309	10,421
– Gross Shorts:	14,907	9,323	16,667
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	64.2	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-10.3	11.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,369 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	45.7	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	45.2	23.0
– Net Position:	2,056	892	-2,948
– Gross Longs:	47,913	73,298	33,975
– Gross Shorts:	45,857	72,406	36,923
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	69.5	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	25.5	-23.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	61.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.7	27.1	17.9
– Net Position:	-40,556	52,128	-11,572
– Gross Longs:	38,797	92,900	15,434
– Gross Shorts:	79,353	40,772	27,006
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	57.8	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-5.5	-23.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	69.8	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	34.7	14.1
– Net Position:	-12,589	16,791	-4,202
– Gross Longs:	11,646	33,408	2,544
– Gross Shorts:	24,235	16,617	6,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	56.3	3.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	19.6	-5.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -28,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.0	38.9	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.2	25.2	1.8
– Net Position:	-28,033	23,741	4,292
– Gross Longs:	96,671	67,201	7,445
– Gross Shorts:	124,704	43,460	3,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.4	82.7	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.4	5.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 32,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.5	12.4	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	78.6	2.7
– Net Position:	32,369	-34,071	1,702
– Gross Longs:	41,979	6,410	3,109
– Gross Shorts:	9,610	40,481	1,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.2	18.0	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-29.4	-5.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.4	1.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	7.6	6.3
– Net Position:	577	-812	235
– Gross Longs:	11,157	245	1,107
– Gross Shorts:	10,580	1,057	872
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	25.0	18.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-36.0	-1.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

25 Sep

Soybean Meal and Gold Top Bullish & Bearish COT Speculator Extremes Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years using a range from 0 to 100. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. You can compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data tables or cot leaders table.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

Soybean Meal comes in at the most bullish extreme standing this week as speculator bets have been on a strong rise in this market. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently right near the top of its 3-year range with at a 97.9 percent score.

Overall, the Soybean Meal position of +126,470 net speculator contracts is the most bullish position of the past twenty-six weeks.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the second most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position totaled 577 net contracts this week which was a change by 451 contracts from last week.

Brazilian Real

The Brazil Real speculator trader’s futures position comes next in the extreme standings this week as traders have been adding to their bullish positioning in recent weeks. The BRL speculator level is now at an 82 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 32,369 net contracts this week and saw a small dip by -584 contracts from last week. The speculator gross long position was a total of 41,979 contracts versus the total speculator gross short position of 9,610 contracts.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Gold

The Gold speculator trader’s futures position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as traders have been bailing sharply out of their futures positions. The Gold speculator level has fallen to a zero percent score of its 3-year range. This means that speculator sentiment is at its lowest level of the past three years currently.

The speculator position was 65,722 net contracts this week, a weekly drop of -31,622 contracts from last week and the lowest level in the past 178 weeks.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini stock market is the next up in bearish extreme positioning this week. The Russell 2000 Mini is at just a 7.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

Speculative traders have been increasing their bearish bets for the Russell Mini for three straight weeks and the current net position (-106,838 net contracts) has now fallen to the most bearish level of the past five weeks.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator trader’s futures position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at an 8 percent score out of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 239,878 net contracts this week which was a change by 12,821 contracts from last week.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator trader’s futures position comes in as fourth most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year speculator level resides at an 11 percent score out of its 3-year range and the overall 5-Year Bond net position has been in a bearish position since April of 2021.

The overall net speculator position was a total of -493,804 net contracts this week and rose by a total of +27,655 contracts from last week.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Opinions

25 Sep

Large drop in Gold Speculator bets leads COT Metals Changes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Large drop in Gold bets leads Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher overall this week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (4,269 contracts) with Silver (3,000 contracts) and Palladium (192 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-31,622 contracts) with Copper (-1,300 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Metals data this week was the sharp and continued decline in the Gold futures bets. Speculators dropped their Gold net positions this week by largest one-week amount in the past thirty-three weeks. The Gold position has now fallen for six straight weeks and by a total of -77,129 contracts over that 6-week time period. This bearishness has pushed the overall net positioning to a total of just +65,722 contracts, marking the lowest overall standing for Gold since April 23rd of 2019, a span of 178 weeks. The current investing environment has been a challenging one for Gold and the futures price this week touched the lowest level since April of 2020. Gold closed the week down over 1.6% and right around the $1,655.60 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,481,545	1	239,878	8	-261,568	94	21,690	36
Gold	469,395	5	65,722	0	-75,428	100	9,706	0
Silver	132,107	0	-1,640	12	-5,629	90	7,269	4
Copper	163,058	4	-20,286	22	23,215	82	-2,929	8
Palladium	5,993	1	-1,081	17	1,261	82	-180	33
Platinum	62,900	27	2,390	12	-5,496	89	3,106	5
Natural Gas	960,236	1	-155,711	32	121,308	69	34,403	62
Brent	164,025	11	-37,903	48	36,732	54	1,171	25
Heating Oil	292,634	32	14,097	63	-25,941	44	11,844	39
Soybeans	656,310	18	84,773	39	-55,485	70	-29,288	22
Corn	1,330,841	9	305,677	69	-241,238	38	-64,439	6
Coffee	191,433	5	41,072	74	-42,998	30	1,926	17
Sugar	744,972	8	37,345	44	-35,860	61	-1,485	6
Wheat	285,567	0	-4,029	14	9,982	74	-5,953	80

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.7 percent) leads the metals markets with a score that is just outside an extreme bearish position of under 20 percent.

All of the other metals markets we cover continue to have scores under 20 percent with Gold at the lowest with 0.0 percent or the lowest level in three years. Silver (12.3 percent) is up over three percent from last week followed by Platinum (12.3 percent) and Palladium (16.8 percent). Platinum and Palladium are also higher than last week’s scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (12.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (9.0 percent)
Copper (21.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (12.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.6 percent)
Palladium (16.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (6.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Palladium (5.0 percent) and Platinum (2.1 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-26.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores with a big negative jump from last week’s -9.4 percent trend score and is followed by Silver at a trend score of -5.0 percent.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-26.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-9.4 percent)
Silver (-5.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.2 percent)
Copper (6.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.6 percent)
Platinum (2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.9 percent)
Palladium (5.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)

Individual COT Metals Market Charts:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -31,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,344 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	30.2	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	46.3	6.6
– Net Position:	65,722	-75,428	9,706
– Gross Longs:	214,557	141,862	40,500
– Gross Shorts:	148,835	217,290	30,794
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	25.5	-5.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,640 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	38.3	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	42.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-1,640	-5,629	7,269
– Gross Longs:	52,323	50,661	21,383
– Gross Shorts:	53,963	56,290	14,114
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.9	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	7.5	-16.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	50.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	36.5	9.9
– Net Position:	-20,286	23,215	-2,929
– Gross Longs:	46,773	82,693	13,179
– Gross Shorts:	67,059	59,478	16,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	81.6	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-3.3	-21.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	38.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	47.3	6.9
– Net Position:	2,390	-5,496	3,106
– Gross Longs:	27,756	24,281	7,432
– Gross Shorts:	25,366	29,777	4,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	89.1	5.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-1.8	-1.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	59.9	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	38.9	18.5
– Net Position:	-1,081	1,261	-180
– Gross Longs:	1,371	3,592	930
– Gross Shorts:	2,452	2,331	1,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	81.8	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-4.4	-6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

25 Sep

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond Speculator bets rebounded before Fed Hikes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Eurodollar and 10-Year Bond bets rebound in Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (653,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (123,299 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (27,655 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,766 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-23,797 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (-22,022 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-19,316 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-4,568 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Bonds data this week was the rebound in both the Eurodollar and the 10-Year Bonds positioning. Both of these bond markets continue to have very bearish speculator positions and it has been that way since global central banks started to get more hawkish in raising their benchmark interest rates to fight inflation.

The Eurodollar turned from a bullish speculator position to bearish in May of 2021 while the 10-Year saw its speculative positioning flip bullish to bearish in October of 2021.

This week saw sharp gains for each of these markets with the Eurodollar jumping by a total of +653,551 net contracts and the 10-Year by +123,299 net contracts.

The bonds data was heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision coming out the next day that resulted in a 75 basis point hike. This likely prompted traders to take off positions that were deemed risky or to try and position for possible surprise outcomes of the Fed meeting.

The Eurodollar speculative change data for that Tuesday was the result of speculators sharply dropping their gross short positions by a total of -709,309 contracts. This is compared to a -55,758 contract decline in the gross long positions.

The 10-Year change, meanwhile, was the result of speculators raising their gross long positions by a total of +100,016 contracts in addition to reducing their gross short contracts by -23,283 to get the weekly net change of 123,299 contracts.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	8,320,365	0	-2,223,771	12	2,509,931	86	-286,160	41
FedFunds	1,719,198	58	24,164	43	-17,273	58	-6,891	42
2-Year	2,020,402	11	-342,415	13	438,181	100	-95,766	9
Long T-Bond	1,235,652	51	-99,539	52	78,958	39	20,581	69
10-Year	3,700,929	44	-229,590	38	342,348	63	-112,758	53
5-Year	3,974,321	50	-493,804	11	639,728	91	-145,924	41

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only market above the midpoint of its 3-year range. The Fed Funds (42.6 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (10.8 percent), the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (42.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (45.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (10.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (27.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (53.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (43.8 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Eurodollar (12.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) and the Fed Funds (2.9 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) followed by the US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-52.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-16.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
Eurodollar (12.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,223,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 653,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,877,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	69.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	39.2	8.2
– Net Position:	-2,223,771	2,509,931	-286,160
– Gross Longs:	556,537	5,772,986	398,527
– Gross Shorts:	2,780,308	3,263,055	684,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	85.9	41.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.4	7.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	71.7	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	72.7	2.7
– Net Position:	24,164	-17,273	-6,891
– Gross Longs:	217,631	1,232,601	39,438
– Gross Shorts:	193,467	1,249,874	46,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	57.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.5	13.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -342,415 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -358,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	61.9	12.4
– Net Position:	-342,415	438,181	-95,766
– Gross Longs:	139,358	1,688,474	154,106
– Gross Shorts:	481,773	1,250,293	249,872
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	100.0	8.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	40.5	-18.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -493,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 27,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	68.6	11.0
– Net Position:	-493,804	639,728	-145,924
– Gross Longs:	266,452	3,366,448	291,033
– Gross Shorts:	760,256	2,726,720	436,957
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	91.3	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	19.3	-4.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -229,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 123,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -352,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	68.2	12.1
– Net Position:	-229,590	342,348	-112,758
– Gross Longs:	397,050	2,868,123	334,645
– Gross Shorts:	626,640	2,525,775	447,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	62.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-5.2	-3.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	81.1	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	70.0	18.0
– Net Position:	-28,808	152,285	-123,477
– Gross Longs:	113,657	1,109,324	123,083
– Gross Shorts:	142,465	957,039	246,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	79.4	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-1.3	-8.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -99,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	77.1	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.7	12.2
– Net Position:	-99,539	78,958	20,581
– Gross Longs:	76,399	952,947	170,936
– Gross Shorts:	175,938	873,989	150,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	38.8	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.9	19.8	-2.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -365,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,316 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	83.2	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	59.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-365,913	330,143	35,770
– Gross Longs:	71,306	1,152,370	147,949
– Gross Shorts:	437,219	822,227	112,179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	76.5	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	0.0	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News investing

25 Sep

Soybean Meal Bullish Speculator bets leads weekly COT Soft Commodities changes

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Soybean Meal leads positive Weekly Speculator Changes while Sugar see weekly drop

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (12,293 contracts) with Corn (11,108 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,953 contracts), Wheat (4,099 contracts), Soybean Oil (2,830 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,947 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-30,985 contracts) with Soybeans (-7,337 contracts), Cotton (-4,086 contracts), Coffee (-1,195 contracts) and Cocoa (-67 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT Soft Commodities data is the gains in Soybean Meal speculator bets. Speculative net positions rose for a second straight week and for the ninth time out of the past twelve weeks. This recent bullishness has pushed Soybean Meal net positions to the highest level of the past 26 weeks, dating back to March 22nd of this year. The speculator positioning for this market currently represents the highest strength score among all the futures markets (50+ markets) we cover with a 97.9 percent score and an extreme bullish reading.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,481,545	1	239,878	8	-261,568	94	21,690	36
Gold	469,395	5	65,722	0	-75,428	100	9,706	0
Silver	132,107	0	-1,640	12	-5,629	90	7,269	4
Copper	163,058	4	-20,286	22	23,215	82	-2,929	8
Palladium	5,993	1	-1,081	17	1,261	82	-180	33
Platinum	62,900	27	2,390	12	-5,496	89	3,106	5
Natural Gas	960,236	1	-155,711	32	121,308	69	34,403	62
Brent	164,025	11	-37,903	48	36,732	54	1,171	25
Heating Oil	292,634	32	14,097	63	-25,941	44	11,844	39
Soybeans	656,310	18	84,773	39	-55,485	70	-29,288	22
Corn	1,330,841	9	305,677	69	-241,238	38	-64,439	6
Coffee	191,433	5	41,072	74	-42,998	30	1,926	17
Sugar	744,972	8	37,345	44	-35,860	61	-1,485	6
Wheat	285,567	0	-4,029	14	9,982	74	-5,953	80

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (74.3 percent), Corn (69.1 percent) and Live Cattle (67.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (11.0 percent) and Wheat (13.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (69.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (67.7 percent)
Sugar (44.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.7 percent)
Coffee (74.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (75.4 percent)
Soybeans (39.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (41.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (42.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (97.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.0 percent)
Live Cattle (67.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (65.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.4 percent)
Cotton (46.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (49.3 percent)
Cocoa (11.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (11.0 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Live Cattle (27.3 percent) and Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) sentiment have led the positive moves over the past six weeks. Corn (12.1 percent), Coffee (9.2 percent) and Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-1.3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the next markets with lower trend scores being Wheat (-0.8 percent), Cocoa (-0.4 percent) and Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (2.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (7.0 percent)
Coffee (9.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-1.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (16.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (27.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (39.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.6 percent)
Cotton (5.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-0.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 305,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	44.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	62.6	13.6
– Net Position:	305,677	-241,238	-64,439
– Gross Longs:	432,909	591,425	116,001
– Gross Shorts:	127,232	832,663	180,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	37.5	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-11.5	-8.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 37,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -30,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	57.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	61.8	8.9
– Net Position:	37,345	-35,860	-1,485
– Gross Longs:	164,043	424,443	64,709
– Gross Shorts:	126,698	460,303	66,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	61.3	6.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-1.0	-7.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 41,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	47.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.9	69.9	3.7
– Net Position:	41,072	-42,998	1,926
– Gross Longs:	52,377	90,726	9,048
– Gross Shorts:	11,305	133,724	7,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	30.2	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-10.6	10.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	54.6	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	63.0	10.7
– Net Position:	84,773	-55,485	-29,288
– Gross Longs:	159,789	358,172	40,819
– Gross Shorts:	75,016	413,657	70,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	69.6	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.3	-5.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 57,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	50.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	66.8	5.6
– Net Position:	57,411	-66,740	9,329
– Gross Longs:	89,528	203,403	31,920
– Gross Shorts:	32,117	270,143	22,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	58.2	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-19.3	16.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 114,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	39.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.0	78.6	6.4
– Net Position:	126,470	-151,854	25,384
– Gross Longs:	138,080	156,677	50,445
– Gross Shorts:	11,610	308,531	25,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	11.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.9	4.0	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-8.7	12.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	32.4	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	54.1	12.7
– Net Position:	70,367	-65,032	-5,335
– Gross Longs:	120,432	96,998	32,801
– Gross Shorts:	50,065	162,030	38,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	24.2	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-24.1	-17.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,953 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	34.3	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	54.3	13.3
– Net Position:	50,115	-41,565	-8,550
– Gross Longs:	89,178	71,385	19,095
– Gross Shorts:	39,063	112,950	27,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	44.4	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	2.8	-11.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,086 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	47.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.7	70.5	4.1
– Net Position:	43,954	-49,713	5,759
– Gross Longs:	71,269	102,276	14,638
– Gross Shorts:	27,315	151,989	8,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	53.8	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-6.9	19.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -67 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,874 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	46.3	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	45.4	3.5
– Net Position:	-5,941	2,779	3,162
– Gross Longs:	97,755	138,572	13,754
– Gross Shorts:	103,696	135,793	10,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.0	90.3	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.6	-2.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	39.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	36.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-4,029	9,982	-5,953
– Gross Longs:	88,644	113,055	28,213
– Gross Shorts:	92,673	103,073	34,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	73.9	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	0.1	2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News investing Soft Commodities

25 Sep

S&P500 Mini Futures led the Stock Market Speculator Bets before Fed Rate hike

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT data this week is from the day before the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate 75 basis points to the 3 to 3.25 percent range. This data shows the trader positioning prior to the rate hike and considering the way the stock markets have gone since Wednesday, positions could have been reversed shortly after.

S&P500 Mini & VIX lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT stock market speculator bets were slightly lower through Tuesday as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the S&P500 Mini (61,553 contracts) with the VIX (16,728 contracts) and MSCI EAFE Mini (1,723 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets with declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq Mini (-8,321 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-7,686 contracts), Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,748 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT stocks data was the SP500 Mini speculator bets that jumped this week by over +60,000 contracts. This was the fourth week in the past five weeks that bets had improved for the SP-Mini. The positioning was likely heavily influenced by the Fed interest rate decision coming the day after (Wednesday) the data was collected. Digging into the data showed that the positive result for the SP500 Mini net positioning was due to a large number of traders reducing their gross short positions (by -75,190 contracts) on Tuesday. Speculators also reduced their gross long positions but by a much smaller number for the week (by -13,637 contracts). Overall, the SP500 Mini net position at -219,451 contracts remains extremely bearish and has been in a negative bearish position for the past fourteen straight weeks, dating back to June 21st.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,141,022	1	-219,451	16	313,698	92	-94,247	7
Nikkei 225	14,151	10	-4,641	55	2,949	44	1,692	50
Nasdaq-Mini	271,815	55	3,485	77	21,582	40	-25,067	4
DowJones-Mini	65,490	21	-15,434	18	15,840	80	-406	36
VIX	345,341	40	-81,798	68	90,842	33	-9,044	48
Nikkei 225 Yen	42,355	18	104	34	18,611	74	-18,715	36

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77.0 percent) and the VIX (68.3 percent) lead the stock markets for the week. The Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) comes in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell2000-Mini (7.4 percent), the S&P500-Mini (15.5 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (17.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are all in extreme bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (15.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (17.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (22.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (81.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (7.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (22.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (8.2 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (7.8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The S&P500-Mini (4.6 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) followed by the DowJones-Mini (-3.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (8.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-9.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-3.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-9.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-7.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (3.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (7.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,798 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	56.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	30.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-81,798	90,842	-9,044
– Gross Longs:	45,066	195,413	21,807
– Gross Shorts:	126,864	104,571	30,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.3	33.3	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-6.0	-20.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -219,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 61,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -281,004 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	63.9	13.0
– Net Position:	-219,451	313,698	-94,247
– Gross Longs:	221,158	1,681,942	184,903
– Gross Shorts:	440,609	1,368,244	279,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	92.3	6.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	0.2	-5.5

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,748 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	58.4	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	34.2	18.5
– Net Position:	-15,434	15,840	-406
– Gross Longs:	15,316	38,240	11,687
– Gross Shorts:	30,750	22,400	12,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.8	80.2	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	-1.8	21.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	60.9	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	53.0	19.7
– Net Position:	3,485	21,582	-25,067
– Gross Longs:	73,741	165,619	28,531
– Gross Shorts:	70,256	144,037	53,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.0	39.8	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	14.0	-9.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,152 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	88.7	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	68.3	4.3
– Net Position:	-106,838	107,880	-1,042
– Gross Longs:	32,486	470,319	21,997
– Gross Shorts:	139,324	362,439	23,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	91.6	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.0	10.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	53.3	34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	32.5	22.3
– Net Position:	-4,641	2,949	1,692
– Gross Longs:	1,729	7,548	4,844
– Gross Shorts:	6,370	4,599	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	44.4	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	-1.3	37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.3	92.1	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	88.5	1.7
– Net Position:	-15,709	14,260	1,449
– Gross Longs:	20,659	360,939	8,009
– Gross Shorts:	36,368	346,679	6,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	78.9	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.7	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates investing Opinions Stock Market News

25 Sep

WTI Crude Oil leads Energy Speculator Bet Changes this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil leads the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were a little higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (12,821 contracts) with Gasoline (1,481 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (1,120 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (117 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,996 contracts) with Heating Oil (-1,967 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-20-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,481,545	1	239,878	8	-261,568	94	21,690	36
Gold	469,395	5	65,722	0	-75,428	100	9,706	0
Silver	132,107	0	-1,640	12	-5,629	90	7,269	4
Copper	163,058	4	-20,286	22	23,215	82	-2,929	8
Palladium	5,993	1	-1,081	17	1,261	82	-180	33
Platinum	62,900	27	2,390	12	-5,496	89	3,106	5
Natural Gas	960,236	1	-155,711	32	121,308	69	34,403	62
Brent	164,025	11	-37,903	48	36,732	54	1,171	25
Heating Oil	292,634	32	14,097	63	-25,941	44	11,844	39
Soybeans	656,310	18	84,773	39	-55,485	70	-29,288	22
Corn	1,330,841	9	305,677	69	-241,238	38	-64,439	6
Coffee	191,433	5	41,072	74	-42,998	30	1,926	17
Sugar	744,972	8	37,345	44	-35,860	61	-1,485	6
Wheat	285,567	0	-4,029	14	9,982	74	-5,953	80

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) and Heating Oil (63.2 percent) lead the energy category this week and are the only two markets above their midpoint of the past three years (50 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (19.1 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent). Natural Gas (31.8 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) are the next lowest strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (4.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (47.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (45.7 percent)
Natural Gas (31.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (34.8 percent)
Gasoline (19.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.6 percent)
Heating Oil (63.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (68.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (67.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) and Gasoline (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) followed by Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (7.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-9.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-6.2 percent)
Gasoline (1.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-5.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-15.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-8.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (8.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (8.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 239,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	39.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.9	57.4	3.5
– Net Position:	239,878	-261,568	21,690
– Gross Longs:	342,588	589,445	73,243
– Gross Shorts:	102,710	851,013	51,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	93.7	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-6.3	-9.5

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,023 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	53.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	31.3	4.0
– Net Position:	-37,903	36,732	1,171
– Gross Longs:	25,663	88,006	7,706
– Gross Shorts:	63,566	51,274	6,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.6	54.4	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	7.2	-8.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -155,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -145,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	43.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	30.8	3.3
– Net Position:	-155,711	121,308	34,403
– Gross Longs:	153,110	417,431	66,185
– Gross Shorts:	308,821	296,123	31,782
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.2	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.9	-10.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	49.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	68.5	6.8
– Net Position:	47,073	-48,192	1,119
– Gross Longs:	77,904	126,887	18,448
– Gross Shorts:	30,831	175,079	17,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	85.1	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	2.0	-24.2

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	54.7	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	63.6	9.3
– Net Position:	14,097	-25,941	11,844
– Gross Longs:	40,428	160,165	39,038
– Gross Shorts:	26,331	186,106	27,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.2	43.6	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	11.2	-0.6

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	70.0	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	55.3	0.1
– Net Position:	-10,317	10,031	286
– Gross Longs:	17,200	47,853	361
– Gross Shorts:	27,517	37,822	75
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	31.9	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-9.0	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News investing

17 Sep

COT Forex Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling & Euro

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Japanese Yen & British Pound Sterling

The COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Euro (24,512 contracts) with the Mexican peso (4,079 contracts) and the Brazilian real (2,093 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Japanese yen (-22,503 contracts) and the British pound sterling (-17,654 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,485 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,268 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,555 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,350 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,196 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-438 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies this week was the further deterioration of the Japanese yen speculative positions. The yen speculator bets have now fallen for five straight weeks and by a total of -55,660 contracts over that period. This recent weakness followed an improvement in the yen positions in ten out of the previous thirteen weeks through August 9th. The overall speculator standing this week has dipped to the most bearish level of the past fourteen weeks, dating back to June 7th. The USDJPY currency pair has continued to see the dollar surge against the yen with the USDJPY above the 142.90 exchange rate to end the week. The pair has hit a high right below the 145.00 level for two straight weeks which is the highest exchange rate for the dollar versus the yen since September of 1998.

The British pound sterling speculator positions fell for a third consecutive week this week. The sterling bets have now declined by a total of -40,120 contracts over the past three weeks to bring the overall standing to a 14-week low. The GBPUSD currency pair has also dropped to a multi-decade low against the US dollar with the pound hitting a 37-year low this week. The GBPUSD closed the week just above the 1.1400 exchange rate after falling in four out of the past five weeks.

On the positive side of the COT data this week is the Euro. The European common currency bounced back this week with a strong +24,512 contracts and has now risen for two straight weeks. This recent improvement has taken the overall speculator standing to a level of just -11,837 contracts. With the EURUSD currency pair trading virtually at parity as it closed the week at the 1.0017 exchange rate, it is an interesting situation trying to read the large trader positioning. The speculators, especially in currencies, usually exhibit trend following behavior and would be expected to have a position of at least -100,000 contracts in this type of environment.

This could mean the speculators feel that the parity level will be close to the bottom for this pair and it is too risky to add to the short positioning. Or, the speculator short positioning could start to rise if the pair keeps its downtrend below parity. One thing for sure is that there are a huge amount of positions open in the market currently. The open interest level this week of 742,244 contracts is in the 99th percentile of the past three years. We know from open interest analysis that many times turning points coincide with peaks in open interest. However, with a possible recession for the Eurozone on the way combined with strong inflationary pressures and a potential energy crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the fundamental backdrop is very cloudy. It will undoubtedly take some time but will be very interesting to see how the large trader positioning and situation resolves itself.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	62,077	93	35,669	84	-38,380	15	2,711	46
EUR	742,244	100	-11,837	31	-11,423	73	23,260	13
GBP	303,965	100	-68,086	11	87,325	92	-19,239	7
JPY	281,716	100	-80,692	19	98,299	84	-17,607	18
CHF	44,853	31	-7,305	38	16,512	70	-9,207	26
CAD	149,556	30	12,425	53	-13,476	57	1,051	32
AUD	182,287	69	-57,850	31	67,018	69	-9,168	30
NZD	51,079	46	-5,301	62	9,408	45	-4,107	4
MXN	208,403	53	-25,381	17	21,333	82	4,048	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,582	42	32,953	83	-34,577	18	1,624	84
Bitcoin	13,089	74	126	79	-320	0	194	17

Strength Scores led by US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (82.8 percent) lead the currency markets near the top of their respective ranges and both are in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (79.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent).

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent), Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels and all three are in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (84.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (85.2 percent)
EuroFX (31.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (53.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (32.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (16.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.8 percent)
Brazil Real (82.8 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (80.7 percent)
Bitcoin (79.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (100.0 percent)

Brazilian Real leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Brazilian Real (33.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Swiss Franc (15.2 percent), Bitcoin (12.3 percent) and the Euro (8.3 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) followed by the Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.4 percent)
EuroFX (8.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-10.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-23.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-1.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (0.2 percent)
Brazil Real (33.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (18.8 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 35,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,107 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.9	9.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	70.9	4.2
– Net Position:	35,669	-38,380	2,711
– Gross Longs:	48,984	5,647	5,342
– Gross Shorts:	13,315	44,027	2,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	14.8	46.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	6.0	-1.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	55.3	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	56.8	8.8
– Net Position:	-11,837	-11,423	23,260
– Gross Longs:	207,778	410,364	88,806
– Gross Shorts:	219,615	421,787	65,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	72.8	12.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-7.6	-0.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,432 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	76.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	47.7	13.3
– Net Position:	-68,086	87,325	-19,239
– Gross Longs:	41,129	232,346	21,161
– Gross Shorts:	109,215	145,021	40,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.9	92.4	7.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	9.9	-7.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -22,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	40.5	14.5
– Net Position:	-80,692	98,299	-17,607
– Gross Longs:	39,323	212,375	23,186
– Gross Shorts:	120,015	114,076	40,793
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	83.6	17.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.4	23.4	-20.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	60.2	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	23.4	41.4
– Net Position:	-7,305	16,512	-9,207
– Gross Longs:	7,704	26,988	9,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,009	10,476	18,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.0	69.8	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-10.8	2.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	44.7	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	53.7	20.0
– Net Position:	12,425	-13,476	1,051
– Gross Longs:	48,102	66,866	30,933
– Gross Shorts:	35,677	80,342	29,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	57.5	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	14.1	-18.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	66.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.8	29.3	17.1
– Net Position:	-57,850	67,018	-9,168
– Gross Longs:	29,218	120,393	22,049
– Gross Shorts:	87,068	53,375	31,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.2	68.9	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	3.7	-7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	53.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	35.3	12.9
– Net Position:	-5,301	9,408	-4,107
– Gross Longs:	17,949	27,458	2,498
– Gross Shorts:	23,250	18,050	6,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	44.9	4.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.0	-9.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	42.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.0	32.6	1.6
– Net Position:	-25,381	21,333	4,048
– Gross Longs:	103,772	89,260	7,469
– Gross Shorts:	129,153	67,927	3,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	81.7	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.3	7.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.8	12.0	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	79.0	3.1
– Net Position:	32,953	-34,577	1,624
– Gross Longs:	42,192	6,186	3,203
– Gross Shorts:	9,239	40,763	1,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	17.5	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.5	-33.2	-0.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.4	4.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.5	6.6	5.7
– Net Position:	126	-320	194
– Gross Longs:	10,268	546	944
– Gross Shorts:	10,142	866	750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	49.0	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-27.4	-3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT excel data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

17 Sep

Weekly COT Metals Speculator bets led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Silver, Copper & Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week with just one market having decreasing contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Silver (8,144 contracts) with Copper (5,004 contracts), Platinum (4,872 contracts) and Palladium (329 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold with a decline of -6,513 contracts the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week was Silver’s gain that stopped a streak of three straight weeks of declines. Silver speculator positions had fallen by a total of -16,292 contracts in the past three weeks to drop to the most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver price has been showing resilience between the $18 to $20 range over the past twelve weeks and closed this week over the $19.30 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,498,059	3	227,057	4	-244,007	98	16,950	28
Gold	463,674	3	97,344	2	-110,938	99	13,594	9
Silver	135,530	3	-4,640	9	-2,551	93	7,191	4
Copper	157,900	0	-18,986	23	20,512	80	-1,526	16
Palladium	6,085	1	-1,273	16	1,455	83	-182	33
Platinum	68,574	36	-1,879	7	-2,051	93	3,930	17
Natural Gas	977,116	4	-145,715	35	110,794	66	34,921	63
Brent	164,415	12	-39,023	46	34,919	51	4,104	65
Heating Oil	290,916	31	16,064	66	-31,353	38	15,289	51
Soybeans	643,018	15	92,110	42	-61,424	68	-30,686	19
Corn	1,310,411	6	294,569	68	-234,179	39	-60,390	8
Coffee	197,657	10	42,267	75	-44,360	29	2,093	19
Sugar	751,873	9	68,330	51	-79,426	53	11,096	22
Wheat	287,046	0	-8,128	8	12,977	78	-4,849	85

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (22.7 percent) leads the metals markets and is just out of a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

On the downside, all the other markets are currently below 20 percent and in bearish extreme positions. Gold (1.8 percent) continues to be at the lowest strength level and near the bottom of it 3-Year range. Platinum (6.6 percent), Silver (9.0 percent) and Palladium (15.7 percent) are the next lowest markets.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (1.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.8 percent)
Platinum (6.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (0.0 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.8 percent)

Strength Trends led by Palladium and Copper

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (6.6 percent) and Platinum (0.9 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Gold (-10.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by Silver with a -6.2 percent trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-10.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (4.3 percent)
Silver (-6.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.1 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (2.0 percent)
Platinum (0.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.1 percent)
Palladium (7.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 97,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.7	27.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	51.3	5.8
– Net Position:	97,344	-110,938	13,594
– Gross Longs:	225,932	126,950	40,556
– Gross Shorts:	128,588	237,888	26,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	99.1	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.9	6.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,640 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.4	38.2	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	40.1	10.8
– Net Position:	-4,640	-2,551	7,191
– Gross Longs:	53,373	51,822	21,808
– Gross Shorts:	58,013	54,373	14,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.0	92.8	3.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	6.2	-4.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	49.8	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	36.8	9.7
– Net Position:	-18,986	20,512	-1,526
– Gross Longs:	44,574	78,682	13,738
– Gross Shorts:	63,560	58,170	15,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.7	79.6	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-5.3	-7.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	38.6	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.3	41.6	5.3
– Net Position:	-1,879	-2,051	3,930
– Gross Longs:	30,552	26,473	7,567
– Gross Shorts:	32,431	28,524	3,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.6	93.4	16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-0.4	-4.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	61.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	37.2	17.9
– Net Position:	-1,273	1,455	-182
– Gross Longs:	1,382	3,720	910
– Gross Shorts:	2,655	2,265	1,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	82.9	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-7.2	0.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

COT Updates investing Metals Opinions

17 Sep

Weekly Bonds Speculator bets led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds and Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (29,311 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (23,388 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (15,926 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (10,818 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Eurodollar (-94,668 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-31,439 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-15,568 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-9,754 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,494,359	13	-2,877,322	0	3,227,082	99	-349,760	27
FedFunds	1,585,427	48	47,961	46	-33,149	56	-14,812	22
2-Year	2,008,780	10	-358,181	10	436,181	100	-78,000	16
Long T-Bond	1,225,024	49	-94,971	54	66,528	34	28,443	75
10-Year	3,639,621	39	-352,889	19	462,613	77	-109,724	54
5-Year	3,982,527	50	-521,459	7	676,949	96	-155,490	38

US Treasury Bond at top of Bond Market Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) led the bonds markets and is the only market above its 3-Year midpoint (above 50 percent). The Fed Funds (45.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) come in as the next highest bond market in strength scores.

On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.2 percent), the 5-Year Bond (6.7 percent), the 2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) come in as the lowest markets and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (18.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (53.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (56.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (43.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (39.4 percent)
Eurodollar (0.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends show 2-Year Bond on sharp downtrend

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Fed Funds (6.3 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the 5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent), US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (6.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-15.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-52.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-47.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-28.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-8.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-26.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (-1.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,877,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -94,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,782,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	71.4	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	37.4	8.1
– Net Position:	-2,877,322	3,227,082	-349,760
– Gross Longs:	612,295	6,777,674	415,183
– Gross Shorts:	3,489,617	3,550,592	764,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	98.7	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.6	0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	70.0	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	72.1	3.3
– Net Position:	47,961	-33,149	-14,812
– Gross Longs:	228,568	1,110,141	37,571
– Gross Shorts:	180,607	1,143,290	52,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	55.9	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-5.7	-8.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -358,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -31,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -326,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	85.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	63.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-358,181	436,181	-78,000
– Gross Longs:	100,196	1,720,285	142,700
– Gross Shorts:	458,377	1,284,104	220,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	100.0	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-52.2	48.1	2.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -505,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	67.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-521,459	676,949	-155,490
– Gross Longs:	276,668	3,365,483	299,655
– Gross Shorts:	798,127	2,688,534	455,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	95.8	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.1	30.0	-16.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -352,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.2	79.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	67.1	12.3
– Net Position:	-352,889	462,613	-109,724
– Gross Longs:	297,034	2,903,201	336,640
– Gross Shorts:	649,923	2,440,588	446,364
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	76.8	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	9.5	-5.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	79.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	70.6	17.0
– Net Position:	-6,786	114,915	-108,129
– Gross Longs:	128,433	1,087,797	126,105
– Gross Shorts:	135,219	972,882	234,234
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.0	69.8	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-9.6	5.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -94,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -85,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	76.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	71.1	11.7
– Net Position:	-94,971	66,528	28,443
– Gross Longs:	73,918	937,965	171,546
– Gross Shorts:	168,889	871,437	143,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.7	34.3	75.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	8.3	12.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -346,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -357,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.1	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	59.5	8.2
– Net Position:	-346,597	310,612	35,985
– Gross Longs:	79,375	1,129,862	148,787
– Gross Shorts:	425,972	819,250	112,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	67.0	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.3	-5.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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