CountingPips Forex Blog

Archive for CountingPips Forex Blog – Page 6

COT Week 26 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculators bets drop sharply led by Corn, Soybeans & Sugar

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were sharply lower this week as just two out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while nine markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Lean Hogs (4,228 contracts) and Cocoa (3,034 contracts) as the only markets showing positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-52,067 contracts), Soybeans (-41,186 contracts) and Sugar (-40,402 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-22,612 contracts), Live Cattle (-12,287 contracts), Wheat (-11,388 contracts), Cotton (-9,655 contracts), Coffee (-4,171 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,446 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (80 percent) is leading the speculator strength positions at an extreme bullish score. Coffee (78 percent) and Corn (72 percent) are the next highest in strength scores. Live Cattle (14 percent) is the lone extreme bearish market with Cocoa (24 percent) coming in as the next lowest.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows the trends for soft commodities are on the downside with eight out of the eleven markets showing negative trends. Soybean Oil (-34 percent) and Wheat (-28 percent) are leading the negative scores currently. The only markets with positive scores this week are Coffee (6 percent), Lean Hogs (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 328,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -52,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 380,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	44.6	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.9	65.1	13.4
– Net Position:	328,102	-274,110	-53,992
– Gross Longs:	433,710	597,265	125,886
– Gross Shorts:	105,608	871,375	179,878
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	32.9	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	21.4	-2.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 122,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -40,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	49.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	67.3	7.7
– Net Position:	122,709	-132,877	10,168
– Gross Longs:	210,575	361,005	66,813
– Gross Shorts:	87,866	493,882	56,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	43.0	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	21.3	-47.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	49.4	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	73.6	3.1
– Net Position:	45,200	-47,147	1,947
– Gross Longs:	55,545	96,232	8,006
– Gross Shorts:	10,345	143,379	6,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	26.5	9.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-5.6	-5.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 137,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	52.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	68.9	10.5
– Net Position:	137,193	-106,705	-30,488
– Gross Longs:	191,380	343,227	38,323
– Gross Shorts:	54,187	449,932	68,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	51.7	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	15.0	-6.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 44,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	55.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	70.4	6.1
– Net Position:	44,918	-53,225	8,307
– Gross Longs:	82,491	202,343	30,416
– Gross Shorts:	37,573	255,568	22,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.9	63.7	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.2	38.6	-48.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 93,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	43.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.3	72.8	6.0
– Net Position:	93,925	-114,869	20,944
– Gross Longs:	106,995	170,250	44,567
– Gross Shorts:	13,070	285,119	23,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	23.2	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-7.4	-33.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	39.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	49.1	11.5
– Net Position:	27,835	-27,080	-755
– Gross Longs:	98,030	110,513	31,369
– Gross Shorts:	70,195	137,593	32,124
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	76.2	79.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	5.9	9.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,228 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	41.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	45.5	14.5
– Net Position:	16,287	-7,339	-8,948
– Gross Longs:	61,378	77,472	18,100
– Gross Shorts:	45,091	84,811	27,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.5	84.8	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-5.5	-19.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.4	40.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	75.6	4.5
– Net Position:	56,390	-61,856	5,466
– Gross Longs:	72,622	70,585	13,385
– Gross Shorts:	16,232	132,441	7,919
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	41.9	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	17.0	-38.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	44.3	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	47.1	3.7
– Net Position:	6,339	-8,708	2,369
– Gross Longs:	91,654	134,441	13,610
– Gross Shorts:	85,315	143,149	11,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	77.4	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	14.6	-27.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,388 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	40.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	41.5	12.1
– Net Position:	7,679	-1,871	-5,808
– Gross Longs:	89,989	118,839	29,465
– Gross Shorts:	82,310	120,710	35,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	57.0	80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	34.3	-15.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Bond Market Speculators were mixed this week led by Eurodollars & 10-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bonds markets was the 10-Year Bond (46,504 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (37,626 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (17,165 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (7,073 contracts) also having a positive week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-158,541 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-98,573 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-18,931 contracts) and Fed Funds (-3,839 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (72.1 percent) remains at the highest level of the bonds markets currently while the 2-Year Bond is creeping up at 62 percent. On the lower end of their ranges, the 3-Month Eurodollars (13 percent) is in a bearish-extreme level while the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (22 percent) comes in next lowest but has been risen from around 7 percent last week.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) are leading the six-week trends with Eurodollars (13 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (10 percent) coming in next. The US Treasury Bond leads the trends on the downside with a -22.9 percent trend change followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,521,916	13	-2,156,430	13	2,512,425	86	-355,995	26
FedFunds	1,748,855	57	120,582	55	-111,402	46	-9,180	36
2-Year	2,118,890	15	-102,118	62	194,562	62	-92,444	10
Long T-Bond	1,182,840	46	-38,253	72	37,023	24	1,230	54
10-Year	3,403,344	23	-181,680	45	329,404	61	-147,724	45
5-Year	3,962,280	49	-202,664	48	373,431	59	-170,767	34

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,156,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -158,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,997,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	70.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	44.1	7.9
– Net Position:	-2,156,430	2,512,425	-355,995
– Gross Longs:	588,828	6,711,010	391,853
– Gross Shorts:	2,745,258	4,198,585	747,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.3	86.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-14.0	15.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 120,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,839 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.8	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	77.2	2.8
– Net Position:	120,582	-111,402	-9,180
– Gross Longs:	243,400	1,238,618	39,186
– Gross Shorts:	122,818	1,350,020	48,366
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.5	46.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-8.0	-14.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,283 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	77.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	68.6	10.7
– Net Position:	-102,118	194,562	-92,444
– Gross Longs:	275,428	1,647,599	134,145
– Gross Shorts:	377,546	1,453,037	226,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	62.4	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-3.2	-7.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -202,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -98,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	83.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	73.7	11.7
– Net Position:	-202,664	373,431	-170,767
– Gross Longs:	330,759	3,293,540	291,486
– Gross Shorts:	533,423	2,920,109	462,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	58.9	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-5.4	-3.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -181,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 46,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	70.4	13.5
– Net Position:	-181,680	329,404	-147,724
– Gross Longs:	274,858	2,724,138	312,558
– Gross Shorts:	456,538	2,394,734	460,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	61.0	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	1.3	2.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 37,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	83.3	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	70.6	21.5
– Net Position:	-26,080	152,060	-125,980
– Gross Longs:	61,919	998,346	131,429
– Gross Shorts:	87,999	846,286	257,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	79.3	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.7	-12.5	-14.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,253 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	78.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	75.6	13.8
– Net Position:	-38,253	37,023	1,230
– Gross Longs:	80,552	931,822	164,556
– Gross Shorts:	118,805	894,799	163,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.1	24.0	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	18.4	14.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -337,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	85.0	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.1	9.1
– Net Position:	-337,983	307,346	30,637
– Gross Longs:	42,179	1,092,416	148,217
– Gross Shorts:	380,162	785,070	117,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	65.4	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	21.2	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Energy Speculator bets mostly higher led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (10,190 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,450 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (703 contracts) and Gasoline (692 contracts) also showing a positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-4,667 contracts) with Heating Oil (-2,056 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (79 percent) and Heating Oil (54 percent) are above the midpoint for the past 3 years while all the other markets are below the 50 percent level. Gasoline and WTI Crude are in extreme bearish positions as each come in at 3 percent currently.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Heating Oil (16 percent) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (9 percent) are also the only markets that have rising trend scores currently. Brent Crude Oil (-13 percent) and WTI Crude (-9 percent) are leading the downside trends.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 299,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 289,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	36.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	56.2	3.2
– Net Position:	299,692	-327,938	28,246
– Gross Longs:	396,046	599,957	80,880
– Gross Shorts:	96,354	927,895	52,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.4	98.6	54.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	12.6	-14.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	53.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	30.0	2.9
– Net Position:	-42,677	41,434	1,243
– Gross Longs:	25,712	93,538	6,241
– Gross Shorts:	68,389	52,104	4,998
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	62.2	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	15.5	-20.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -129,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	40.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	31.6	2.4
– Net Position:	-129,419	90,840	38,579
– Gross Longs:	203,204	402,705	62,574
– Gross Shorts:	332,623	311,865	23,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	59.5	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	8.4	-28.5

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	53.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	68.4	4.4
– Net Position:	32,099	-42,454	10,355
– Gross Longs:	76,657	154,967	23,177
– Gross Shorts:	44,558	197,421	12,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	94.6	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	4.3	-17.4

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.5	52.6	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	62.1	8.2
– Net Position:	7,508	-25,743	18,235
– Gross Longs:	44,423	141,515	40,222
– Gross Shorts:	36,915	167,258	21,987
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	43.9	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-9.9	-5.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	68.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	57.9	0.2
– Net Position:	-7,349	7,041	308
– Gross Longs:	18,077	45,029	456
– Gross Shorts:	25,426	37,988	148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.4	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.8	-7.5	-13.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Stock Market Speculators bets dropped this week led by S&P500 Mini & Nasdaq Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had very small gains in positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was Russell 2000 Mini (976 contracts) with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (400 contracts) and VIX (354 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the decreases in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-24,907 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-6,616 contracts) with the MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-6,141 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-2,182 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (-23 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish and below 20 percent is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini leads currently with an extreme bullish score of 89 percent. The VIX is also at an extreme bullish score of 84.4 percent while on the downside, the Russell 2000 Mini (1 percent) and the Dow Jones Mini (4.6 percent) are both in extreme bearish positions.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Nikkei 225 Yen (15 percent), Nasdaq Mini (5 percent) and the Nikkei 225 USD (2 percent) are the only markets with rising scores over the past six weeks. The S&P Mini (-38 percent) and the Russell 2000 Mini (-21 percent) lead the downward trends of strength scores.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,248,771	6	-139,226	30	168,405	96	-29,179	20
Nikkei 225	13,442	8	-1,615	70	2,101	40	-486	22
Nasdaq-Mini	248,045	41	24,190	89	-19,930	14	-4,260	40
DowJones-Mini	66,759	23	-25,073	5	29,675	99	-4,602	14
VIX	257,123	14	-49,569	84	56,789	17	-7,220	56
Nikkei 225 Yen	56,111	38	2,330	41	24,398	87	-26,728	20

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	54.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	32.4	11.4
– Net Position:	-49,569	56,789	-7,220
– Gross Longs:	44,726	140,039	22,123
– Gross Shorts:	94,295	83,250	29,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	16.7	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	4.2	6.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -139,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -114,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	76.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.3	11.3
– Net Position:	-139,226	168,405	-29,179
– Gross Longs:	248,313	1,726,190	223,854
– Gross Shorts:	387,539	1,557,785	253,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	96.1	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.1	39.6	-3.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	70.5	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	26.1	21.8
– Net Position:	-25,073	29,675	-4,602
– Gross Longs:	9,011	47,089	9,948
– Gross Shorts:	34,084	17,414	14,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	98.9	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.9	-12.8

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	51.9	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	59.9	16.0
– Net Position:	24,190	-19,930	-4,260
– Gross Longs:	78,987	128,769	35,528
– Gross Shorts:	54,797	148,699	39,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	14.2	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-6.6	3.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -104,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	88.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	69.0	4.2
– Net Position:	-104,620	109,982	-5,362
– Gross Longs:	41,196	503,528	18,674
– Gross Shorts:	145,816	393,546	24,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	100.0	11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.1	20.1	-4.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -23 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	52.1	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	36.5	19.8
– Net Position:	-1,615	2,101	-486
– Gross Longs:	4,220	7,007	2,177
– Gross Shorts:	5,835	4,906	2,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	40.1	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-10.4	22.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,182 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	92.2	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	92.3	1.3
– Net Position:	-1,986	-510	2,496
– Gross Longs:	19,973	360,111	7,717
– Gross Shorts:	21,959	360,621	5,221
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.8	79.9	40.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	0.5	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Stock Market News

26 Jun

Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st.

Currency Position Notables:

Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts.

Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months.

The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish).

Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	58,543	86	45,010	100	-46,746	2	1,736	36
EUR	671,718	70	-15,605	30	-18,182	71	33,787	30
GBP	228,266	57	-63,247	28	77,902	76	-14,655	25
JPY	218,076	67	-58,454	33	74,349	72	-15,895	21
CHF	37,669	16	-7,157	38	14,958	67	-7,801	31
CAD	140,047	23	4,105	44	-6,578	63	2,473	35
AUD	137,017	35	-40,606	47	44,608	52	-4,002	43
NZD	42,889	30	-5,423	62	8,756	44	-3,333	13
MXN	191,265	45	-26,870	16	22,977	82	3,893	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	68,858	65	44,345	94	-45,996	6	1,651	84
Bitcoin	13,537	77	1,046	100	-995	0	-51	12

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	88.2	2.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	82.7	4.8
– Net Position:	45,010	-46,746	1,736
– Gross Longs:	51,606	1,676	4,522
– Gross Shorts:	6,596	48,422	2,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.6	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-15.2	-7.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	55.6	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	58.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-15,605	-18,182	33,787
– Gross Longs:	195,554	373,695	85,208
– Gross Shorts:	211,159	391,877	51,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	70.9	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	7.0	12.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	77.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	43.5	14.2
– Net Position:	-63,247	77,902	-14,655
– Gross Longs:	28,470	177,170	17,735
– Gross Shorts:	91,717	99,268	32,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	75.8	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-10.3	2.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	71.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	37.6	17.9
– Net Position:	-58,454	74,349	-15,895
– Gross Longs:	35,864	156,248	23,099
– Gross Shorts:	94,318	81,899	38,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	71.9	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-24.7	-2.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	66.2	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	26.5	46.4
– Net Position:	-7,157	14,958	-7,801
– Gross Longs:	3,068	24,927	9,673
– Gross Shorts:	10,225	9,969	17,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	67.3	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-23.7	21.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.9	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	52.6	18.9
– Net Position:	4,105	-6,578	2,473
– Gross Longs:	42,260	67,084	29,011
– Gross Shorts:	38,155	73,662	26,538
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	63.2	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-7.9	0.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	60.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.8	27.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-40,606	44,608	-4,002
– Gross Longs:	31,745	82,514	18,756
– Gross Shorts:	72,351	37,906	22,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	52.2	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.9	3.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	60.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	40.3	12.8
– Net Position:	-5,423	8,756	-3,333
– Gross Longs:	14,652	26,056	2,145
– Gross Shorts:	20,075	17,300	5,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	43.9	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-12.5	6.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	45.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.3	33.8	1.3
– Net Position:	-26,870	22,977	3,893
– Gross Longs:	96,147	87,609	6,317
– Gross Shorts:	123,017	64,632	2,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	82.4	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	18.3	-1.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	14.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	81.3	2.3
– Net Position:	44,345	-45,996	1,651
– Gross Longs:	55,599	10,020	3,238
– Gross Shorts:	11,254	56,016	1,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	6.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-3.9	4.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	0.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	7.9	8.1
– Net Position:	1,046	-995	-51
– Gross Longs:	10,495	78	1,048
– Gross Shorts:	9,449	1,073	1,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.7	0.0	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-11.9	-3.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

26 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Metals Speculator bets slightly higher as Gold & Silver bets gain

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT metals market speculator bets were mostly higher for the week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (8,689 contracts) and Silver (4,414 contracts) with Palladium (11 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Copper (-7,141 contracts) while Platinum (-723 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week.

Notes:

Highlighting the data for metals this week is the Gold positioning. Gold speculative positions rebounded a bit this week after seeing a sharp decline last week of over -20,000 contracts. The Gold net position has been mostly on the defensive since March 8th when the spec level had reached a total of +274,388 contracts which was a 61-week high, dating back to January 5th of 2021. Since then, the overall bullish position has shed a total of -111,101 contracts to settle at this week’s net standing of +163,287 contracts (just 4.4 percent level of its 3-year range). The Gold futures price, however, remains in an uptrend on the daily charts and is sitting right on a significant upward trendline that started in March of 2021.

Silver positioning, much like Gold’s, has been under pressure over the past fifteen weeks. On March 8th, Silver bets reached a forty-three week high at +52,297 contracts, coinciding with the Silver futures price hitting a 2022 high of $27.49. Since then, speculator bets have cooled and have fallen in ten out of the past fifteen weeks (and by a total of -33,878 contracts) to this week’s standing of just +18,419 contracts. The Silver futures price has been on a downtrend since April, currently trading at just over $21.00 and possibly on its way towards the significant psychological level of $20.00.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (27 percent) remains the only precious metals futures market that is not in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). A rising interest rate environment with a strong US Dollar has weighed on the precious metals category as speculator futures sentiment continues to be really weak at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-15.1 percent) and Palladium (-4.5 percent) lead the downward trends over the past six weeks. Copper (1.2 percent) and Platinum (0.2 percent) are the only two markets with positive trends over the time period.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,658,636	0	289,502	0	-323,915	100	34,413	64
Gold	500,276	14	163,287	4	-186,929	96	23,642	14
Silver	145,356	12	18,419	7	-27,250	93	8,831	4
Copper	187,170	17	-20,938	27	18,928	72	2,010	37
Palladium	7,641	6	-4,046	0	4,511	100	-465	17
Platinum	64,946	30	1,491	6	-6,397	96	4,906	30
Natural Gas	1,030,971	0	-130,869	39	85,977	58	44,892	86
Brent	173,098	18	-38,010	47	36,052	53	1,958	36
Heating Oil	268,818	23	9,564	56	-28,204	41	18,640	63
Soybeans	745,494	32	178,379	68	-152,968	38	-25,411	28
Corn	1,512,152	23	380,169	79	-326,474	25	-53,695	12
Coffee	192,832	0	49,371	81	-52,348	22	2,977	20
Sugar	779,773	0	163,111	70	-181,280	34	18,169	30
Wheat	320,326	6	19,067	44	-15,407	38	-3,660	91

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 163,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	24.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	61.4	4.1
– Net Position:	163,287	-186,929	23,642
– Gross Longs:	268,119	120,045	44,380
– Gross Shorts:	104,832	306,974	20,738
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	96.0	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	19.7	-38.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	37.7	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	56.5	11.1
– Net Position:	18,419	-27,250	8,831
– Gross Longs:	54,451	54,828	25,018
– Gross Shorts:	36,032	82,078	16,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.9	93.4	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	4.2	-13.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	55.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	45.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-20,938	18,928	2,010
– Gross Longs:	50,230	103,789	16,909
– Gross Shorts:	71,168	84,861	14,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	72.5	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-0.2	-7.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	43.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	53.7	5.4
– Net Position:	1,491	-6,397	4,906
– Gross Longs:	25,676	28,487	8,413
– Gross Shorts:	24,185	34,884	3,507
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	96.2	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.4	12.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	74.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	15.0	18.6
– Net Position:	-4,046	4,511	-465
– Gross Longs:	1,009	5,655	960
– Gross Shorts:	5,055	1,144	1,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	6.0	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

25 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Bond Market Speculator bets rose this week led by 5-Year & 2-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bond (86,980 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (41,139 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bond (17,501 contracts), Fed Funds (13,490 contracts) and the Long US Bond (10,078 contracts) also showing higher speculator bets for the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-143,197 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-22,655 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (-3,455 contracts) also seeing lower speculator bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (78.3 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets currently with the 5-Year Bond (65 percent), 2-Year Bond (58.2 percent), and Fed Funds (55 percent) following. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12.2 percent) and 3-Month Eurodollars (16.2 percent) continue to remain in bearish-extreme levels and have the weakest speculator strength scores at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the 5-Year Bond (38.9 percent) continues to lead the strength trends. Next up is Eurodollars (11.1 percent) and then Fed Funds with a 9.3 percent strength change over the past six weeks. The 10-Year Bonds (-21.6 percent) leads the falling speculator trends over the past six weeks followed by the Ultra US Treasury Bonds (-13.7 percent) and then the US Treasury Bond (-11.3 percent).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,411,173	11	-1,997,889	16	2,355,143	83	-357,254	26
FedFunds	1,646,303	50	124,421	55	-125,477	45	1,056	62
2-Year	2,086,917	13	-119,283	58	205,599	65	-86,316	13
Long T-Bond	1,177,791	45	-19,322	78	37,921	26	-18,599	38
10-Year	3,440,085	25	-228,184	38	404,754	70	-176,570	38
5-Year	3,854,228	43	-104,091	65	289,493	49	-185,402	30

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,997,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143,197 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,854,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	69.6	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	44.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-1,997,889	2,355,143	-357,254
– Gross Longs:	614,934	6,554,406	400,504
– Gross Shorts:	2,612,823	4,199,263	757,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	83.2	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-12.0	16.0

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 124,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	70.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	77.6	2.6
– Net Position:	124,421	-125,477	1,056
– Gross Longs:	231,344	1,151,997	43,549
– Gross Shorts:	106,923	1,277,474	42,493
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	44.7	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-9.3	2.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -119,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 41,139 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	76.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	67.0	10.6
– Net Position:	-119,283	205,599	-86,316
– Gross Longs:	257,375	1,603,236	134,031
– Gross Shorts:	376,658	1,397,637	220,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	64.8	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	0.9	-4.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -104,091 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 86,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -191,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	80.9	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	73.4	12.4
– Net Position:	-104,091	289,493	-185,402
– Gross Longs:	373,807	3,119,594	292,913
– Gross Shorts:	477,898	2,830,101	478,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	48.6	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.9	-25.9	-2.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -228,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -22,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	80.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	68.5	13.5
– Net Position:	-228,184	404,754	-176,570
– Gross Longs:	269,685	2,760,756	287,654
– Gross Shorts:	497,869	2,356,002	464,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.8	70.0	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	16.2	1.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -63,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	85.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	68.0	21.2
– Net Position:	-63,706	212,999	-149,293
– Gross Longs:	55,061	1,035,003	107,499
– Gross Shorts:	118,767	822,004	256,792
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	94.9	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	1.5	-23.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -19,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,400 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	77.1	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	73.9	14.7
– Net Position:	-19,322	37,921	-18,599
– Gross Longs:	99,282	907,963	154,938
– Gross Shorts:	118,604	870,042	173,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	26.5	37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	14.8	-6.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -345,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -341,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	85.1	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	60.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-345,056	316,836	28,220
– Gross Longs:	42,428	1,089,411	145,784
– Gross Shorts:	387,484	772,575	117,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	70.0	48.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	12.8	5.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News

25 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Soft Commodity Speculator bets slightly lower led by Corn & Sugar

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The soft commodities market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (7,378 contracts) and Cocoa (6,674 contracts) with Soybean Meal (6,540 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,673 contracts) and Coffee (2,486 contracts) also showing positive speculator contract changes for the week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-19,606 contracts) and Sugar (-7,372 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-5,868 contracts), Soybeans (-4,288 contracts), Wheat (-1,368 contracts) and Cotton (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Coffee (81 percent) and Soybean Meal (80.6 percent) are in extreme bullish positions as of the latest data release. On the downside for strength scores is Lean Hogs (19.9 percent) which is just on the edge of being in a bearish extreme position and then Cocoa (20.9 percent) which is the next lowest.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Coffee (14.5 percent) and Soybean Meal (6.3 percent) have the highest trends as of the latest data. The overall effect of this chart shows how most of the soft commodities markets have really cooled off after really strong speculator sentiment since the start of the year.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,658,636	0	289,502	0	-323,915	100	34,413	64
Gold	500,276	14	163,287	4	-186,929	96	23,642	14
Silver	145,356	12	18,419	7	-27,250	93	8,831	4
Copper	187,170	17	-20,938	27	18,928	72	2,010	37
Palladium	7,641	6	-4,046	0	4,511	100	-465	17
Platinum	64,946	30	1,491	6	-6,397	96	4,906	30
Natural Gas	1,030,971	0	-130,869	39	85,977	58	44,892	86
Brent	173,098	18	-38,010	47	36,052	53	1,958	36
Heating Oil	268,818	23	9,564	56	-28,204	41	18,640	63
Soybeans	745,494	32	178,379	68	-152,968	38	-25,411	28
Corn	1,512,152	23	380,169	79	-326,474	25	-53,695	12
Coffee	192,832	0	49,371	81	-52,348	22	2,977	20
Sugar	779,773	0	163,111	70	-181,280	34	18,169	30
Wheat	320,326	6	19,067	44	-15,407	38	-3,660	91

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 380,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 399,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	44.7	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	66.3	12.9
– Net Position:	380,169	-326,474	-53,695
– Gross Longs:	504,174	675,580	140,912
– Gross Shorts:	124,005	1,002,054	194,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	25.4	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	12.6	1.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 163,111 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 170,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	49.2	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	72.4	6.7
– Net Position:	163,111	-181,280	18,169
– Gross Longs:	227,142	383,646	70,240
– Gross Shorts:	64,031	564,926	52,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	33.8	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	7.5	-18.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	47.6	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	74.7	2.8
– Net Position:	49,371	-52,348	2,977
– Gross Longs:	58,442	91,789	8,425
– Gross Shorts:	9,071	144,137	5,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.5	21.7	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-17.0	19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 178,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 182,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	50.5	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	71.0	10.0
– Net Position:	178,379	-152,968	-25,411
– Gross Longs:	226,191	376,155	49,215
– Gross Shorts:	47,812	529,123	74,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.5	37.9	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.6	2.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	52.9	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	73.0	5.7
– Net Position:	67,530	-77,869	10,339
– Gross Longs:	96,861	205,007	32,564
– Gross Shorts:	29,331	282,876	22,225
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	48.9	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	24.5	-29.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	42.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.9	72.6	5.7
– Net Position:	95,371	-119,799	24,428
– Gross Longs:	110,934	172,823	47,533
– Gross Shorts:	15,563	292,622	23,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	20.7	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.1	2.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 40,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,744 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.1	39.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	53.6	12.0
– Net Position:	40,122	-38,641	-1,481
– Gross Longs:	102,557	109,561	31,589
– Gross Shorts:	62,435	148,202	33,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	60.4	76.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-3.9	8.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,386 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	43.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	45.0	15.0
– Net Position:	12,059	-3,041	-9,018
– Gross Longs:	59,031	80,955	18,981
– Gross Shorts:	46,972	83,996	27,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	89.9	49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	9.2	-18.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 66,045 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	39.7	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	77.6	4.8
– Net Position:	66,045	-72,681	6,636
– Gross Longs:	81,410	76,251	15,830
– Gross Shorts:	15,365	148,932	9,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	35.5	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	11.7	-26.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	43.9	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	45.5	3.7
– Net Position:	3,305	-4,856	1,551
– Gross Longs:	93,606	135,958	12,977
– Gross Shorts:	90,301	140,814	11,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	81.2	12.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	21.3	-41.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	39.1	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	44.0	11.5
– Net Position:	19,067	-15,407	-3,660
– Gross Longs:	102,924	125,399	33,167
– Gross Shorts:	83,857	140,806	36,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	37.8	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	3.4	1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Soft Commodities

25 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Energy Speculator bets on defensive led by WTI Crude Oil & Natural Gas

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Energy markets speculator bets were lower on the week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (1,089 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (259 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-13,444 contracts) with Natural Gas (-7,384 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (-1,621 contracts) and Gasoline (-49 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are both in bullish levels at the moment. All other energy markets are below the midpoint of the past 3-years and have bearish or extreme bearish readings.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the Heating Oil are again leading the six week trends with 19.9 percent and 20.8 percent, respectively. Brent Oil leads the downside trends with -11.4 percent over the past six weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,658,636	0	289,502	0	-323,915	100	34,413	64
Gold	500,276	14	163,287	4	-186,929	96	23,642	14
Silver	145,356	12	18,419	7	-27,250	93	8,831	4
Copper	187,170	17	-20,938	27	18,928	72	2,010	37
Palladium	7,641	6	-4,046	0	4,511	100	-465	17
Platinum	64,946	30	1,491	6	-6,397	96	4,906	30
Natural Gas	1,030,971	0	-130,869	39	85,977	58	44,892	86
Brent	173,098	18	-38,010	47	36,052	53	1,958	36
Heating Oil	268,818	23	9,564	56	-28,204	41	18,640	63
Soybeans	745,494	32	178,379	68	-152,968	38	-25,411	28
Corn	1,512,152	23	380,169	79	-326,474	25	-53,695	12
Coffee	192,832	0	49,371	81	-52,348	22	2,977	20
Sugar	779,773	0	163,111	70	-181,280	34	18,169	30
Wheat	320,326	6	19,067	44	-15,407	38	-3,660	91

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 289,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 302,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	35.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.0	55.4	3.2
– Net Position:	289,502	-323,915	34,413
– Gross Longs:	388,496	594,860	86,668
– Gross Shorts:	98,994	918,775	52,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	10.7	-13.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -38,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	51.5	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	30.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-38,010	36,052	1,958
– Gross Longs:	26,225	89,195	6,865
– Gross Shorts:	64,235	53,143	4,907
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	53.2	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	9.1	17.7

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -123,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.7	39.8	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	31.5	2.7
– Net Position:	-130,869	85,977	44,892
– Gross Longs:	213,487	410,457	72,315
– Gross Shorts:	344,356	324,480	27,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	58.0	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	7.0	-8.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	54.3	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	68.3	4.3
– Net Position:	31,407	-42,080	10,673
– Gross Longs:	75,835	162,816	23,491
– Gross Shorts:	44,428	204,896	12,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	95.0	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	2.0	-13.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 9,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,475 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	51.0	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	61.5	9.8
– Net Position:	9,564	-28,204	18,640
– Gross Longs:	45,955	137,166	44,894
– Gross Shorts:	36,391	165,370	26,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	41.2	62.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-12.7	-7.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,052 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	69.5	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	57.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-8,052	7,764	288
– Gross Longs:	17,434	45,267	447
– Gross Shorts:	25,486	37,503	159
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	23.2	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-18.8	-11.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News

25 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets mostly lower led by S&P500 Mini & Russell 2000

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The stock market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as three out of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was VIX (24,255 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (2,404 contracts) and Nikkei 225 USD (821 contracts) also showing a positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500 Mini (-148,597 contracts) and with Russell 2000 Mini (-10,350 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (-5,996 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-4,840 contracts) and Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (-3,184 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq Mini and the VIX are both in extreme bullish levels (above 80 percent). The Nikkei Stock Average is also above the midpoint of the past 3-year with a 69.9 percent score for a bullish reading.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the S&P 500 Mini and the Russell 200 Mini are leading the downside trends with -43.7 percent and -21.9 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq Mini and the Nikkei 225 Yen are the only markets with positive six week trends.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,262,004	6	-114,319	35	144,197	92	-29,878	20
Nikkei 225	12,380	5	-1,592	70	2,139	40	-547	21
Nasdaq-Mini	236,624	34	30,806	92	-27,586	10	-3,220	42
DowJones-Mini	69,024	26	-25,473	4	28,937	98	-3,464	20
VIX	257,930	15	-49,923	84	55,730	16	-5,807	63
Nikkei 225 Yen	51,198	30	-3,047	25	25,170	88	-22,123	29

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	53.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	32.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-49,923	55,730	-5,807
– Gross Longs:	46,982	138,746	21,718
– Gross Shorts:	96,905	83,016	27,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	16.2	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	-1.8	27.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -114,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -148,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	75.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.4	11.3
– Net Position:	-114,319	144,197	-29,878
– Gross Longs:	273,629	1,713,053	224,849
– Gross Shorts:	387,948	1,568,856	254,727
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	91.7	20.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.7	46.8	-5.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	69.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	27.9	20.1
– Net Position:	-25,473	28,937	-3,464
– Gross Longs:	10,310	48,166	10,418
– Gross Shorts:	35,783	19,229	13,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	98.0	19.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	6.6	-16.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	46.9	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	58.5	17.7
– Net Position:	30,806	-27,586	-3,220
– Gross Longs:	82,888	110,913	38,577
– Gross Shorts:	52,082	138,499	41,797
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.2	9.5	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-12.0	4.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -105,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	88.3	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	69.3	3.7
– Net Position:	-105,596	107,890	-2,294
– Gross Longs:	40,382	502,812	19,004
– Gross Shorts:	145,978	394,922	21,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.9	18.9	8.0

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,413 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	56.8	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	39.5	22.1
– Net Position:	-1,592	2,139	-547
– Gross Longs:	3,130	7,026	2,194
– Gross Shorts:	4,722	4,887	2,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.9	40.3	21.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	14.0	14.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	92.7	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	93.2	1.2
– Net Position:	196	-2,076	1,880
– Gross Longs:	18,931	358,172	6,538
– Gross Shorts:	18,735	360,248	4,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	77.7	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.7	-3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News Stock Market News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.