Archive for CountingPips Forex Blog – Page 2

20 Aug

Energy Speculators push Heating Oil bets higher for 6th week to 42-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data (Week 33) is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: Week 33 – Heating Oil bets rise for 6th week

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Natural Gas (4,508 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (4,289 contracts), Gasoline (2,163 contracts) and Heating Oil (462 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil (-1,801 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-231 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Heating Oil speculator contracts edged higher this week and rose for a sixth straight week. Speculator positions are now in bullish territory for the twelfth week after turning from bearish to bullish on May 31st. These increases have pushed the Heating Oil speculator standing to just about +25,000 contracts and to the highest level since October 26th of 2021, a span of forty-two weeks.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,3490214,9401-239,29110024,35148
Gold453,9600141,16419-153,7098412,5454
Silver144,314113,50810-12,451908,94312
Copper183,50017-28,2202228,93279-71221
Palladium7,9517-1,599141,536836348
Platinum57,254172,94012-6,361903,42110
Natural Gas983,4605-120,9114282,8625738,04970
Brent176,90221-36,0125134,290501,72233
Heating Oil296,9873424,92679-40,0222915,09651
Soybeans595,095583,18339-51,65068-31,53318
Corn1,316,4621220,12958-166,31848-53,81112
Coffee190,302033,47168-35,318371,84716
Sugar737,535749,97047-61,8375611,86723
Wheat313,23711-1,908177,44870-5,54082

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Heating Oil (79.1 percent) leads the energy currently and is up a bit from last week’s score of 78.4 percent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores. On the downside, the WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) and Gasoline (19.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (1.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (50.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (53.8 percent)
Natural Gas (42.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.9 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.5 percent)
Heating Oil (79.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (58.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (27.1 percent) is getting the most love from speculators lately and leads the past six weeks trends for energy. Gasoline (19.7 percent), Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) and Natural Gas (2.9 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-17.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-23.5 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (4.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (14.2 percent)
Natural Gas (2.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.2 percent)
Gasoline (19.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (13.4 percent)
Heating Oil (27.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (24.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-20.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 214,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 210,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.341.05.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.556.43.5
– Net Position:214,940-239,29124,351
– Gross Longs:346,865638,97178,715
– Gross Shorts:131,925878,26254,364
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.199.748.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.317.50.9

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.750.84.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.031.43.1
– Net Position:-36,01234,2901,722
– Gross Longs:33,01789,8287,241
– Gross Shorts:69,02955,5385,519
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.850.332.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-5.07.0

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -120,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -125,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.342.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.633.83.0
– Net Position:-120,91182,86238,049
– Gross Longs:170,133415,17167,826
– Gross Shorts:291,044332,30929,777
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.357.070.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-2.9-1.2

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 47,669 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.348.17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.068.36.0
– Net Position:47,669-52,6304,961
– Gross Longs:81,394124,91920,499
– Gross Shorts:33,725177,54915,538
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.780.945.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-19.11.9

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 24,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.552.113.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.165.68.7
– Net Position:24,926-40,02215,096
– Gross Longs:46,048154,77241,070
– Gross Shorts:21,122194,79425,974
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.128.650.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.1-18.4-4.1

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,656 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.075.00.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.356.20.1
– Net Position:-12,88712,595292
– Gross Longs:15,33050,098339
– Gross Shorts:28,21737,50347
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 17.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.241.721.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.720.61.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing
20 Aug

Dow Jones Stock Mini Speculator bets improve for 3rd week to 27-week high

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data for Week 33 is updated through Tuesday August 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 33 – Dow Jones Stock gains

COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had lower contracts.

Recording the only positive gains for stock markets this week was the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini with a total gain of 5,745 contracts.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500 Mini (-43,723 contracts) with the Nasdaq Mini (-14,229 contracts), the MSCI EAFE Mini (-13,310 contracts), the VIX (-3,974 contracts), the Russell 2000 Mini (-3,598 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-303 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

 

The Dow Jones Stock Index Mini, one of the most widely-watched stock market indices and made up of 30 large publicly-traded companies, rose this week for a third straight week. Speculator bets for the Dow have also now gained in seven out of the past eight weeks for a total gain of +18,508 contracts in that period. Overall, the speculator bets have been in bearish territory since January 4th but the recent improvement has brought the current spec position (-6,965 contracts) to the least bearish level since February 15th, a span of 27 weeks. The Dow Jones Stock Mini futures hit a four-month high this week above 34,000 but ended the week with a small loss.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-16-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,346,22410-287,9843354,217100-66,23312
Nikkei 22514,75111-4,563563,271461,29245
Nasdaq-Mini267,796536,8467915,52236-22,3682
DowJones-Mini81,03743-6,965299,36672-2,40126
VIX366,82346-102,16958105,26940-3,10076
Nikkei 225 Yen58,199415,9685219,49678-25,46422

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (78.9 percent) leads the stocks currently and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). On the downside, the EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent), the Russell2000-Mini (2.0 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels for speculators (below 20 percent).

 


Strength Statistics:
VIX (58.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (60.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (2.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (10.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (21.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (78.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (2.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (57.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (21.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks currently. The Dow Jones trend has gained from a 16.5 percent trend score last week. The Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and is up from a -4.6 percent score last week. The VIX (-28.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the S&P500-Mini (-19.3 percent) followed by the Nasdaq-Mini (-13.4 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-13.4 percent).

 


Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-28.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-19.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-13.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-4.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-13.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-12.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-22.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.259.56.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.130.87.5
– Net Position:-102,169105,269-3,100
– Gross Longs:48,445218,26324,376
– Gross Shorts:150,614112,99427,476
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.140.476.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.325.818.4

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -287,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -43,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -244,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.777.89.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.062.712.5
– Net Position:-287,984354,217-66,233
– Gross Longs:227,3701,826,100227,544
– Gross Shorts:515,3541,471,883293,777
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.8100.012.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.318.4-5.9

 

Dow Jones Stock Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Stock Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,965 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.654.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.242.519.4
– Net Position:-6,9659,366-2,401
– Gross Longs:23,21543,79513,286
– Gross Shorts:30,18034,42915,687
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.071.625.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.5-24.411.1

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.357.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.751.819.6
– Net Position:6,84615,522-22,368
– Gross Longs:78,401154,31530,163
– Gross Shorts:71,555138,79352,531
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.936.12.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.425.5-35.8

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -116,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.188.54.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.166.04.6
– Net Position:-116,465118,367-1,902
– Gross Longs:32,034466,87422,592
– Gross Shorts:148,499348,50724,494
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.097.121.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-2.79.3

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.453.930.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.431.721.7
– Net Position:-4,5633,2711,292
– Gross Longs:2,2787,9484,489
– Gross Shorts:6,8414,6773,197
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.846.044.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.40.334.6

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -36,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,310 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.992.42.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.383.71.6
– Net Position:-36,15833,8652,293
– Gross Longs:19,133357,5418,342
– Gross Shorts:55,291323,6766,049
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.038.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.39.6-52.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Stock Market News
13 Aug

Currency Speculators further pared back on Japanese Yen & British Pound bearish bets

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was British pound sterling (21,941 contracts) and the Japanese yen (17,721 contracts) with the Euro (4,275 contracts), Swiss franc (3,526 contracts), Brazil real (2,863 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,297 contracts), Canadian dollar (946 contracts) and Bitcoin (351 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-4,568 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-1,638 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-710 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

Highlighting the COT currency changes this week is the continued rebound in the Japanese yen speculator positions. The yen positioning has been in net bearish territory for seventy-four consecutive weeks (dating back to March 9th of 2021) but has started to see a strong decrease in its bearish levels lately. Speculators have improved their yen standing in three out of the past four weeks and by a total of +36,449 contracts in the past two weeks alone. This recent positive sentiment has brought the overall yen speculative standing (currently at -25,032 contracts) to the least bearish level of the past seventy-four weeks or since the position turned bearish last year. The yen price has rebounded a bit over the past month as the USDJPY currency pair has cooled off after reaching 20-year highs above 139.35 exchange rate in July. Currently, the USDJPY is trading around the 133.50 exchange rate and has come out of overbought territory on the weekly RSI Indicator (Relative Strength Index).

British pound sterling speculators also sharply cut their bearish positions this week as speculator positioning have now risen in three out of the past four weeks as well as in eight out of the previous eleven weeks. Speculative positions recorded a large improvement by +21,941 contracts this week which is the best weekly gain for GBP bets since the middle of January. This positive development has dropped the overall bearish position to the best level (or the least bearish level) since March 15th, a span of twenty-one weeks. The British pound price has been in a deep and consistent downtrend against the US Dollar since ascending over the 1.4200 exchange rate in May of 2021 and touched a recent low below 1.1800 in July (for an approximate -17.5 percent drop over that period). However, on the positive side, the pound has managed to rise in three out of the past four weeks, closing out the week at the 1.2136 exchange rate and, notably, a bullish divergence recently appeared on the weekly RSI Indicator following the July low.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index59,6398838,63789-42,09993,46254
EUR692,39879-34,5362414,4028020,1348
GBP224,58159-34,4684552,05062-17,58219
JPY225,83472-25,0325336,99454-11,96229
CHF43,20227-9,7823219,46475-9,68225
CAD143,6462621,22363-29,743448,52047
AUD158,10051-57,5883159,44163-1,85348
NZD45,35035-276714,04437-3,7688
MXN189,98845-27,6211624,722832,89955
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL25,48171,73352-3,884472,15190
Bitcoin12,51070-23076-71030120

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (89.4 percent) leads the currency markets scores currently and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (76.1 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores followed by the New Zealand Dollar (70.8 percent) and then the Canadian Dollar (63.2 percent). On the downside, the Mexican Peso (15.6 percent) continues to be the only currency in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the EuroFX (24.4 percent), Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) and the Swiss Franc (31.7 percent).


Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (89.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.6 percent)
EuroFX (24.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (53.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (42.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (31.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (63.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (62.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (31.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (33.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (70.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (17.5 percent)
Brazil Real (52.1 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (49.3 percent)
Bitcoin (76.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (69.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (17.0 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (14.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8.4 percent) fill out the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Brazil Real (-34.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-23.9 percent) followed by the Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (-7.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-3.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (18.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (6.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-5.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (1.6 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-44.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-23.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-29.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,347 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:85.13.59.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.374.13.4
– Net Position:38,637-42,0993,462
– Gross Longs:50,7382,0795,481
– Gross Shorts:12,10144,1782,019
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.0 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.48.954.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.77.11.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.957.011.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.954.98.5
– Net Position:-34,53614,40220,134
– Gross Longs:200,088394,54378,944
– Gross Shorts:234,624380,14158,810
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.480.17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.39.7-17.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,941 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.869.68.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.146.416.4
– Net Position:-34,46852,050-17,582
– Gross Longs:42,219156,28219,243
– Gross Shorts:76,687104,23236,825
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.161.619.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.5-10.9-1.0

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,753 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.265.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.349.414.6
– Net Position:-25,03236,994-11,962
– Gross Longs:52,333148,62820,978
– Gross Shorts:77,365111,63432,940
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.553.729.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-15.16.8

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,526 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.058.121.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.613.044.2
– Net Position:-9,78219,464-9,682
– Gross Longs:8,63525,0849,414
– Gross Shorts:18,4175,62019,096
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 14.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.774.524.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.02.6-1.4

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 21,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 946 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.641.623.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.962.317.6
– Net Position:21,223-29,7438,520
– Gross Longs:46,89859,79833,808
– Gross Shorts:25,67589,54125,288
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.243.947.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.6-14.610.8

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -57,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,950 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.269.312.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.631.713.4
– Net Position:-57,58859,441-1,853
– Gross Longs:25,644109,59319,378
– Gross Shorts:83,23250,15221,231
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.463.247.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.59.25.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,297 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.254.54.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.845.513.2
– Net Position:-2764,044-3,768
– Gross Longs:18,22424,7002,239
– Gross Shorts:18,50020,6566,007
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.836.68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4-6.9-6.1

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.346.33.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.833.31.6
– Net Position:-27,62124,7222,899
– Gross Longs:95,57288,0365,991
– Gross Shorts:123,19363,3143,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.683.155.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.86.5-8.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.533.113.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.748.44.9
– Net Position:1,733-3,8842,151
– Gross Longs:13,6358,4403,405
– Gross Shorts:11,90212,3241,254
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.147.590.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.733.87.6

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.33.58.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.14.15.9
– Net Position:-230-71301
– Gross Longs:9,2944391,034
– Gross Shorts:9,524510733
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.153.619.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.950.810.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions
13 Aug

Gold & Silver Large Speculator bets continue to gain after falling to multi-year lows

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT precious metals speculator bets were higher again this week as five out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (18,525 contracts) with Platinum (3,387 contracts), Silver (1,905 contracts) and Palladium (590 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals markets with a decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a decrease of -1,071 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the strong rebound in Gold speculator bets over the past two weeks. This week’s +18,525 contract rise followed last week’s +31,636 contract jump for a two-week gain of approximately +50,000 contracts. This positive speculator sentiment has pushed the Gold bullish level to the highest of the past five weeks. Previously on July 26th, the Gold speculator level had fallen to the lowest level in one hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 and near the height of the COVID-19 pandemic panic when most markets were going haywire. The Gold futures price has been on the rebound as well after hitting a recent low near $1,678.50 on July 21st. The Gold price has had four straight positive weeks and closed out this week near the $1,815.50 level.

Silver speculator contracts rose this week for a second consecutive week and rose a little further away from bearish territory. The Silver speculator positions had previously dropped into bearish territory on July 26th, a rare occurrence and the first time it has happened since June 4th of 2019 (a span of 164 weeks). Silver bets have seen a modest rebound over the past two weeks while the Silver futures price has risen in two out of the past three weeks. Silver is back above the $20 threshold after bouncing off the $18 level for a few weeks in July.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,570,1310210,6510-238,07310027,42253
Gold453,5400142,85119-154,5548311,7031
Silver141,09382,8799-13,5748910,69521
Copper187,98821-28,4772227,7007877730
Palladium7,6196-1,970122,04486-7440
Platinum62,782268469-4,055933,2097
Natural Gas969,5823-125,4194186,7345838,68572
Brent175,89621-34,2115432,411471,80034
Heating Oil283,7492924,46478-36,4723212,00840
Soybeans583,208288,90141-62,97165-25,93027
Corn1,317,9131210,78657-160,65449-50,13214
Coffee209,4461330,45365-31,268418157
Sugar765,6691226,06542-30,608624,54313
Wheat320,76714-3,426159,93974-6,51377

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (21.9 percent) continues to be the leader in strength scores but is at a very low level. The rest of the metals all remain in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) and have been there for many consecutive weeks. Despite the persistent weak sentiment, all metals except Copper have started seeing improvements week-over-week with Gold rising by 7.1 percent this week.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (19.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.1 percent)
Silver (9.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (6.6 percent)
Copper (21.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.6 percent)
Platinum (9.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.6 percent)
Palladium (11.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.4 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Palladium (10.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Platinum (2.9 percent) and Copper (1.6 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. Silver (-9.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently but is improving compared to last week’s -21.2 percent trend. Gold is at -5.7 percent this week and also has improved compared to last week’s -14.9 percent trend score.


Strength Trends Statistics:
Gold (-5.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-14.9 percent)
Silver (-9.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-21.2 percent)
Copper (1.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-4.7 percent)
Platinum (2.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-5.5 percent)
Palladium (10.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (8.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 142,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.626.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.161.05.8
– Net Position:142,851-154,55411,703
– Gross Longs:242,906121,98037,927
– Gross Shorts:100,055276,53426,224
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.283.41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.79.9-34.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,879 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,905 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.640.317.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.649.99.5
– Net Position:2,879-13,57410,695
– Gross Longs:48,86456,87624,122
– Gross Shorts:45,98570,45013,427
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.088.920.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.75.015.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.345.37.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.530.57.5
– Net Position:-28,47727,700777
– Gross Longs:49,47785,08514,822
– Gross Shorts:77,95457,38514,045
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.978.529.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-2.47.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.238.910.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.945.45.7
– Net Position:846-4,0553,209
– Gross Longs:27,75424,4506,803
– Gross Shorts:26,90828,5053,594
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.293.26.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-0.9-20.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 590 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.558.815.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.332.016.6
– Net Position:-1,9702,044-74
– Gross Longs:1,3314,4821,191
– Gross Shorts:3,3012,4381,265
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.786.239.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-13.431.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

 

 

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions
13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Bonds Speculators bets weaker this week led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower weekly contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bond (9,012 contracts) with the Long US Bond (8,467 contracts) and the Fed Funds (3,686 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-99,296 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-72,753 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (-15,058 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-10,376 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-9,201 contracts) also registering lower bets for the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,633,69816-2,885,97903,205,92798-319,94834
FedFunds1,595,759499614011,29961-12,26029
2-Year2,122,09915-172,22147224,20269-51,98127
Long T-Bond1,160,70937-47,5866923,4041924,18272
10-Year3,541,74433-286,47829386,24568-99,76756
5-Year3,901,25346-351,00322481,26672-130,26345

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (69.1 percent) leads the bonds markets and is the only market with an above 50 percent score currently (above 50 percent of 3-year speculator bet range). The strength scores reiterate the weakness for speculator sentiment in bonds this year. On the downside, the Eurodollar (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its three-year range. Joining the Eurodollar in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent) is the Ultra 10-Year Bond at a 16.7 percent score.


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (47.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (62.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (21.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (24.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (19.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (69.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (66.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (37.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (41.6 percent)
Eurodollar (0.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that there are no positive trends in the past six weeks currently. The US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) are the markets showing the least declines in the latest trends data. The 5-Year Bond (-26.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by the 10-Year Bond (-15.9 percent), the Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-14.2 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-15.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (4.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-40.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-15.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-5.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.9 percent)
Eurodollar (-13.4 percent) vs Eurodollar (-14.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,885,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -99,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,786,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.671.24.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.637.98.1
– Net Position:-2,885,9793,205,927-319,948
– Gross Longs:447,5606,859,412463,734
– Gross Shorts:3,333,5393,653,485783,682
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.098.334.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.412.37.9

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.874.52.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.873.82.9
– Net Position:96111,299-12,260
– Gross Longs:172,5971,188,92833,947
– Gross Shorts:171,6361,177,62946,207
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.761.328.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.814.9-7.8

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -172,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -72,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.880.77.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.970.210.3
– Net Position:-172,221224,202-51,981
– Gross Longs:208,4341,712,983165,581
– Gross Shorts:380,6551,488,781217,562
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.568.926.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.26.516.9

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -351,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -335,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.783.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.771.010.9
– Net Position:-351,003481,266-130,263
– Gross Longs:298,6313,249,286295,805
– Gross Shorts:649,6342,768,020426,068
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.672.045.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.013.111.1

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -286,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -295,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.679.89.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.768.812.6
– Net Position:-286,478386,245-99,767
– Gross Longs:269,6992,824,549344,919
– Gross Shorts:556,1772,438,304444,686
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.967.855.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.96.811.3

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -46,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.883.510.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.870.220.3
– Net Position:-46,667157,510-110,843
– Gross Longs:56,978986,942128,400
– Gross Shorts:103,645829,432239,243
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.780.753.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.41.49.9

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -47,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,467 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,053 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.677.214.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.775.212.4
– Net Position:-47,58623,40424,182
– Gross Longs:87,700896,500168,639
– Gross Shorts:135,286873,096144,457
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.119.071.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.0-4.918.2

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -361,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -352,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.684.210.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.459.68.1
– Net Position:-361,316330,12431,192
– Gross Longs:47,8211,132,208139,719
– Gross Shorts:409,137802,084108,527
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.876.650.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.511.20.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

See CFTC criteria here.

 

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing
13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets go slightly higher led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Live Cattle (11,693 contracts) and Lean Hogs (10,480 contracts) with Corn (9,431 contracts), Coffee (3,169 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,400 contracts) and Soybean Oil (626 contracts) also having increasing bets this week.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-8,373 contracts) with Soybeans (-3,626 contracts), Cocoa (-3,605 contracts), Wheat (-2,701 contracts) and Cotton (-940 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,570,1310210,6510-238,07310027,42253
Gold453,5400142,85119-154,5548311,7031
Silver141,09382,8799-13,5748910,69521
Copper187,98821-28,4772227,7007877730
Palladium7,6196-1,970122,04486-7440
Platinum62,782268469-4,055933,2097
Natural Gas969,5823-125,4194186,7345838,68572
Brent175,89621-34,2115432,411471,80034
Heating Oil283,7492924,46478-36,4723212,00840
Soybeans583,208288,90141-62,97165-25,93027
Corn1,317,9131210,78657-160,65449-50,13214
Coffee209,4461330,45365-31,268418157
Sugar765,6691226,06542-30,608624,54313
Wheat320,76714-3,426159,93974-6,51377

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) leads the soft commodity markets this week and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (65.1 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity market in strength scores followed by Lean Hogs (61.4 percent) and Corn (57.0 percent). On the downside, Cocoa (12.2 percent) and Wheat (14.6 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are both in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.8 percent)
Sugar (42.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (43.7 percent)
Coffee (65.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (62.4 percent)
Soybeans (41.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (42.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (89.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (88.6 percent)
Live Cattle (40.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (61.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.0 percent)
Cotton (45.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (46.3 percent)
Cocoa (12.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (15.7 percent)
Wheat (14.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (18.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that most of the softs markets have cooled off following a strong start to the year. Lean Hogs with a six-week trend score of 36.9 percent leads the trends data for the soft commodity markets this week. Live Cattle (26.0 percent) and Soybean Meal (10.2 percent) follow next and are the only other positive movers in the latest trends data. Sugar (-19.9 percent) leads with the largest downside trend score currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-15.0 percent), Soybeans (-14.7 percent) and Wheat (-14.5 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-15.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-22.8 percent)
Sugar (-19.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-26.4 percent)
Coffee (-12.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-19.1 percent)
Soybeans (-14.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-26.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-9.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-25.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.0 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-4.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (36.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (30.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-18.4 percent)
Cocoa (-11.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-5.2 percent)
Wheat (-14.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 210,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,431 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 201,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.548.59.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.560.713.4
– Net Position:210,786-160,654-50,132
– Gross Longs:349,498639,748126,594
– Gross Shorts:138,712800,402176,726
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.049.014.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.016.12.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.754.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.358.38.3
– Net Position:26,065-30,6084,543
– Gross Longs:174,128416,05268,341
– Gross Shorts:148,063446,66063,798
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.062.313.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.919.4-7.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.254.94.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.669.83.6
– Net Position:30,453-31,268815
– Gross Longs:46,419114,8888,350
– Gross Shorts:15,966146,1567,535
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.140.97.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.714.4-10.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 88,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.554.06.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.264.810.6
– Net Position:88,901-62,971-25,930
– Gross Longs:148,533315,13335,744
– Gross Shorts:59,632378,10461,674
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.264.727.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.713.17.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 31,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.556.16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.765.15.5
– Net Position:31,007-35,9724,965
– Gross Longs:69,604223,35426,755
– Gross Shorts:38,597259,32621,790
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.277.532.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.610.8-12.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 112,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.540.211.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:2.873.55.5
– Net Position:112,176-135,19623,020
– Gross Longs:123,666163,08845,224
– Gross Shorts:11,490298,28422,204
– Long to Short Ratio:10.8 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.912.752.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-10.610.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.437.512.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.556.012.9
– Net Position:48,582-47,453-1,129
– Gross Longs:96,02796,30232,141
– Gross Shorts:47,445143,75533,270
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.348.377.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.0-27.9-1.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 50,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,717 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.532.29.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.250.812.5
– Net Position:50,197-43,894-6,303
– Gross Longs:95,55676,05023,171
– Gross Shorts:45,359119,94429,474
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.441.663.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:36.9-43.213.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 36,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,163 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.946.66.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.567.45.0
– Net Position:36,223-39,0062,783
– Gross Longs:67,04687,09212,137
– Gross Shorts:30,823126,0989,354
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.756.028.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.913.6-17.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,957 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.947.34.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.746.63.7
– Net Position:-5,5622,1523,410
– Gross Longs:92,797146,52314,847
– Gross Shorts:98,359144,37111,437
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.288.030.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.710.610.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.939.29.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.036.111.8
– Net Position:-3,4269,939-6,513
– Gross Longs:96,022125,60531,241
– Gross Shorts:99,448115,66637,754
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.673.876.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.516.8-3.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities
13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Energy Speculators bets fall led by WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline & Brent

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (2,396 contracts) which was the only market this week showing increasing speculator bets.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were WTI Crude Oil (-43,101 contracts) and Gasoline (-5,312 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-1,429 contracts), Natural Gas (-446 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-33 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,570,1310210,6510-238,07310027,42253
Gold453,5400142,85119-154,5548311,7031
Silver141,09382,8799-13,5748910,69521
Copper187,98821-28,4772227,7007877730
Palladium7,6196-1,970122,04486-7440
Platinum62,782268469-4,055933,2097
Natural Gas969,5823-125,4194186,7345838,68572
Brent175,89621-34,2115432,411471,80034
Heating Oil283,7492924,46478-36,4723212,00840
Soybeans583,208288,90141-62,97165-25,93027
Corn1,317,9131210,78657-160,65449-50,13214
Coffee209,4461330,45365-31,268418157
Sugar765,6691226,06542-30,608624,54313
Wheat320,76714-3,426159,93974-6,51377

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (78.4 percent) remains the leader in energy market strength scores. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) come in as the next highest energy markets in strength scores and both are above 50 percent or the midpoint of their 3-year ranges. On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is at the bottom of its 3-year range. Joining WTI in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent) is Gasoline at a 17.5 percent score.


Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (53.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (56.2 percent)
Natural Gas (40.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (41.1 percent)
Gasoline (17.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (22.9 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.1 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.2 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (24.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) and Gasoline (13.4 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data. WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores is the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-23.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (14.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Natural Gas (1.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.8 percent)
Gasoline (13.4 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (19.5 percent)
Heating Oil (24.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-20.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-17.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 210,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 253,752 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.540.64.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.155.73.2
– Net Position:210,651-238,07327,422
– Gross Longs:338,172636,98076,995
– Gross Shorts:127,521875,05349,573
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.052.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.524.3-1.2

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -34,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.049.93.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.431.52.9
– Net Position:-34,21132,4111,800
– Gross Longs:31,57887,8466,819
– Gross Shorts:65,78955,4355,019
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.847.233.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.2-15.07.5

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -125,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -124,973 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.541.77.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.532.73.0
– Net Position:-125,41986,73438,685
– Gross Longs:169,972404,07767,512
– Gross Shorts:295,391317,34328,827
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.958.271.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-1.30.2

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.848.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.668.85.7
– Net Position:45,506-50,2544,748
– Gross Longs:74,516122,09318,926
– Gross Shorts:29,010172,34714,178
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.583.144.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.4-7.5-37.3

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.152.614.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.565.510.2
– Net Position:24,464-36,47212,008
– Gross Longs:45,620149,37240,817
– Gross Shorts:21,156185,84428,809
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.432.439.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.9-11.4-21.6

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -33 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.974.00.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.755.70.2
– Net Position:-12,65612,375281
– Gross Longs:16,11549,878386
– Gross Shorts:28,77137,503105
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 13.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.140.920.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.320.5-1.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing
13 Aug

COT Week 32 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets rise led by MSCI EAFE, Russell 2000 & Dow Jones

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had decreasing spec contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the MSCI EAFE Mini (8,666 contracts) and the Russell 2000 Mini (7,087 contracts) with the Dow Jones Mini (5,711 contracts), VIX (643 contracts) and  Nikkei 225 USD (375 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines this week were the S&P500 Mini (-12,376 contracts) and the Nasdaq Mini (-3,637 contracts) with falling speculator bets on the week.

Stocks Futures Speculators

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-09-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,299,3888-244,26111312,241100-67,98012
Nikkei 22514,29710-4,260573,4624779838
Nasdaq-Mini258,7844721,07587-1,16726-19,9088
DowJones-Mini75,39435-12,7102117,16882-4,45815
VIX341,69939-98,19560103,10439-4,90968
Nikkei 225 Yen59,192427,6555823,07584-30,73011

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Nasdaq-Mini (86.8 percent) continues to lead stocks and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (60.1 percent) and the Nikkei USD (57.2 percent) come in as the next highest stock markets in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell 2000-Mini (4.0 percent), the S&P500-Mini (10.9 percent) and the EAFE-Mini (11.7 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently and are all in bearish extreme speculator levels (below 20 percent).

Stocks Spec Strength Scores (3-YR Range 0-100)

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (59.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (10.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (13.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (86.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (4.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (57.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (11.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the DowJones-Mini (16.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks and is the only positive mover in the data. The VIX (-24.3 percent), the EAFE-Mini (-23.6 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (-19.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently. The data shows that overall, the speculators have had a bearish tilt over that past six weeks.

Stocks Spec Strength Score Trends (6-Weeks)

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-24.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (16.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (9.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-3.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-4.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-14.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-35.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -98,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.160.97.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.830.78.8
– Net Position:-98,195103,104-4,909
– Gross Longs:41,377208,08525,269
– Gross Shorts:139,572104,98130,178
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.139.367.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.322.611.2

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -244,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -231,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.977.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.564.112.5
– Net Position:-244,261312,241-67,980
– Gross Longs:227,0641,785,298218,709
– Gross Shorts:471,3251,473,057286,689
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.9100.012.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.521.1-8.1

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.559.113.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.436.319.7
– Net Position:-12,71017,168-4,458
– Gross Longs:20,00844,52710,357
– Gross Shorts:32,71827,35914,815
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.482.014.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.5-16.80.8

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.657.811.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.458.319.4
– Net Position:21,075-1,167-19,908
– Gross Longs:73,939149,70530,221
– Gross Shorts:52,864150,87250,129
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.825.87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.711.5-32.2

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -112,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.289.83.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.068.24.4
– Net Position:-112,867117,463-4,596
– Gross Longs:28,422488,82319,479
– Gross Shorts:141,289371,36024,075
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.096.613.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.63.92.3

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.956.127.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.731.921.9
– Net Position:-4,2603,462798
– Gross Longs:2,2788,0173,922
– Gross Shorts:6,5384,5553,124
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.247.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.66.816.1

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.192.42.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.987.11.4
– Net Position:-22,84820,4972,351
– Gross Longs:19,817362,2557,872
– Gross Shorts:42,665341,7585,521
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.793.239.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.624.6-1.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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06 Aug

Currency Speculators trim Japanese Yen bearish bets while Brazilian Real bets fall into bearish level

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly  lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets recorded lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was Japanese yen (18,728 contracts) with the Mexican peso (6,845 contracts), the Canadian dollar (4,508 contracts), the Euro (2,773 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (2,613 contracts) also making gains on the week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-12,842 contracts) and Australian dollar (-8,565 contracts) with the British pound sterling (-2,419 contracts), the Swiss franc (-2,009 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,188 contracts) and Bitcoin (-460 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currency markets data this week was the rebound in the Japanese yen speculator bets. Yen bets jumped by +18,728 contracts this week which marks the highest positive change of the past seven weeks. The yen bets have been in an overall bearish level since March of 2021 with a recent bearish high on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts and were as high as -102,309 contracts on May 17th before speculators started to pare their bearish bets. Since May, the speculator positioning has improved by approximately 60,000 net contracts and has pushed the overall speculator position to the least bearish level since June 8th of 2021, a span of sixty weeks.

Brazilian Real speculator bets declined this week by over -12,000 contracts and the overall positioning dropped into a new bearish level at -1,130 contracts. This is the first bearish net position since February 1st, a span of the past twenty-six weeks. The decline in Real positions has happened fast and furious as speculator positions hit record high bullish levels in early March above +50,000 contracts and were as high as +44,345 contracts on June 21st. Since June 14th, speculator bets have fallen in five out of the past seven weeks for a total decline of -48,343 contracts over that time and erasing the bullish spec position.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index57,0548239,34791-42,15992,81247
EUR683,88375-38,8112315,5208023,29113
GBP226,98761-56,4093072,57774-16,16822
JPY236,73780-42,7534350,25460-7,50138
CHF45,87433-13,3082323,27981-9,97124
CAD145,9142720,27762-30,4074310,13050
AUD167,93158-55,9503362,12465-6,17437
NZD45,27434-1,573694,85838-3,28514
MXN192,97146-23,0531820,696812,35753
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL21,1941-1,13049-561511,69185
Bitcoin12,84972-58170244033721

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Dollar Index (90.6 percent) continued to lead the strength scores although it came down a bit from last week (92.5 percent) but still remains in a bullish extreme level. Bitcoin (69.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (68.6 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (62.1 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets for strength scores. On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent). The Swiss Franc (22.8 percent), the Euro (23.1 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (29.9 percent) round out the next weakest strength scores this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (90.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (92.5 percent)
EuroFX (23.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (42.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (62.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (33.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (68.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (64.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (14.6 percent)
Brazil Real (49.3 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (61.9 percent)
Bitcoin (69.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Canadian Dollar (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (9.7 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (5.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data. The Brazil Real (-44.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Bitcoin (-29.6 percent), the Swiss Franc (-15.6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) followed by the US Dollar Index (-9.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-9.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.6 percent)
EuroFX (-7.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-10.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (8.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-1.5 percent)
Brazil Real (-44.7 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-34.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-21.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 39,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,535 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.04.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.078.84.1
– Net Position:39,347-42,1592,812
– Gross Longs:47,9182,8075,128
– Gross Shorts:8,57144,9662,316
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.1 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.68.847.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.47.311.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.057.312.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.755.08.7
– Net Position:-38,81115,52023,291
– Gross Longs:191,692391,84182,466
– Gross Shorts:230,503376,32159,175
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.180.413.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.19.6-17.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.975.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.843.815.6
– Net Position:-56,40972,577-16,168
– Gross Longs:29,305171,96619,191
– Gross Shorts:85,71499,38935,359
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.973.922.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.2-3.2-3.1

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -42,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,728 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.366.510.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.445.213.9
– Net Position:-42,75350,254-7,501
– Gross Longs:50,433157,33325,358
– Gross Shorts:93,186107,07932,859
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.560.238.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-11.817.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.863.418.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.812.640.2
– Net Position:-13,30823,279-9,971
– Gross Longs:8,17029,0758,457
– Gross Shorts:21,4785,79618,428
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.880.623.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.613.3-7.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.140.724.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.261.517.3
– Net Position:20,277-30,40710,130
– Gross Longs:48,34259,35535,393
– Gross Shorts:28,06589,76225,263
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.143.450.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.915.4

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.468.610.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.731.614.3
– Net Position:-55,95062,124-6,174
– Gross Longs:30,835115,14117,863
– Gross Shorts:86,78553,01724,037
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.065.237.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.213.1-5.3

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,613 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.556.15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.045.413.0
– Net Position:-1,5734,858-3,285
– Gross Longs:16,52125,4202,620
– Gross Shorts:18,09420,5625,905
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.637.913.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.5-6.00.6

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -23,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.644.03.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.533.31.8
– Net Position:-23,05320,6962,357
– Gross Longs:101,41584,8845,777
– Gross Shorts:124,46864,1883,420
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.581.453.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-1.0-6.5

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,712 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.835.414.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.238.06.7
– Net Position:-1,130-5611,691
– Gross Longs:10,5627,5003,115
– Gross Shorts:11,6928,0611,424
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.350.784.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-44.744.30.5

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.85.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.34.05.8
– Net Position:-581244337
– Gross Longs:9,7407541,085
– Gross Shorts:10,321510748
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.771.920.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.671.98.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions
06 Aug

Precious Metals Speculator bets gain as Gold & Silver positions rebound from multi-year lows

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 31

COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while only one market recorded lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (31,636 contracts) with Silver (5,474 contracts), Platinum (1,927 contracts) and Palladium (848 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The only metals markets with a weekly decline in speculator bets this week was Copper with a shortfall of -844 contracts.

Highlighting the metals markets data this week was a rebound in the Gold speculator bets. The speculative position for Gold Futures jumped this week by over +30,000 contracts and halted a streak of five straight weeks of declines. Speculator bets had dropped by a total of -70,597 contracts over the previous five weeks and those declines had brought the overall bullish position to a total of just +92,690 contracts. This marked the lowest overall speculator standing in the past one hundred and sixty-five weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic panic. This week’s rebound brings the overall total back above the +120,000 contract level for the first time in four weeks. Gold futures prices have risen back around the $1,800 level after dropping to approximately $1,680 on July 21st.

Silver bets also had a rebound this week by over +5,000 contracts and put a stop to a five-week slide in speculator bets (total decline of -22,919 contracts). Silver’s positioning has been extremely weak in recent months and had fallen in thirteen out of the previous fourteen weeks through last week. This week’s rebound brought the overall Silver position out of a net bearish level after falling into a bearish position for the first time since June 4th of 2019, a span of 164 weeks. Silver futures prices, meanwhile, ended the week just below the important psychological $20 level after spending a few weeks falling hitting lows down near the $18 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,606,9103253,7520-272,86610019,11442
Gold459,6492124,32612-135,5659011,2390
Silver136,26739747-9,064938,0908
Copper184,44116-27,4062327,67278-26624
Palladium6,9453-2,56082,74390-18333
Platinum68,26636-2,5415-1,708964,24921
Natural Gas984,5705-124,9734187,5965837,37769
Brent171,75117-32,7825631,8354694722
Heating Oil276,5202622,06875-35,3893413,32144
Soybeans572,925092,52742-65,63264-26,89526
Corn1,347,8946201,35556-149,43451-51,92113
Coffee207,7401227,28462-27,968446846
Sugar760,0931134,43844-35,229617919
Wheat316,24412-7251810,88875-10,16358

 

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Copper (22.6 percent) continues to lead the metals although with a low score that is just outside an extreme bearish position (below 20 percent). Gold (12.1 percent), Palladium (8.4 percent), Silver (6.6 percent) and Platinum (4.6 percent) all have strength scores that remain in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent) but all of these markets have improving scores compared to last week.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (12.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.0 percent)
Silver (6.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (0.0 percent)
Copper (22.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.2 percent)
Platinum (4.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.0 percent)
Palladium (8.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Palladium (8.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week and is the only market currently with a positive six-week trend score. Silver (-21.2 percent) and Gold (-14.9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently followed by Platinum (-5.5 percent) and Copper (-4.7 percent).


Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (-23.7 percent)
Silver (-21.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.5 percent)
Copper (-4.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-9.2 percent)
Platinum (-5.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.1 percent)
Palladium (8.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 124,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.727.88.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.657.35.7
– Net Position:124,326-135,56511,239
– Gross Longs:242,128127,70037,481
– Gross Shorts:117,802263,26526,242
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.190.20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.918.5-33.9

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.140.816.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.447.410.4
– Net Position:974-9,0648,090
– Gross Longs:49,22055,53622,198
– Gross Shorts:48,24664,60014,108
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.693.58.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.218.5-3.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.345.87.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.130.87.4
– Net Position:-27,40627,672-266
– Gross Longs:50,31784,44713,430
– Gross Shorts:77,72356,77513,696
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.678.523.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.76.0-13.2

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.038.911.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.741.45.0
– Net Position:-2,541-1,7084,249
– Gross Longs:28,64826,5517,673
– Gross Shorts:31,18928,2593,424
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.696.221.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.56.1-9.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.963.415.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.823.917.8
– Net Position:-2,5602,743-183
– Gross Longs:9654,4001,051
– Gross Shorts:3,5251,6571,234
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.490.133.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4-9.916.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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