Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 99

A strong Australian labor market report reinforced the RBA’s hawkish stance. Banks in Thailand and the Philippines cut interest rates

At the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.79%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.47%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.07%. Stronger-than-expected corporate earnings results supported stocks. In addition, a weaker-than-expected UK consumer price report for September lowered global bond yields, which was favorable for equities.

Morgan Stanley (MS) closed higher by more than 6% after reporting Q3 net revenue of $15.38 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $14.35 billion. Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock price rose more than 4% and led the Dow Jones Industrials after Citigroup upgraded the stock to “buy” from “neutral” with a $62 price target. Intel’s (INTC) stock price declined more than 1% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials losers list after the Cybersecurity Association of China proposed a cybersecurity review of Intel products sold in China.

The Mexican peso slid to 19.9 per US dollar, hitting a one-month low, as external and domestic pressures intensified the need to ease borrowing conditions. Former US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose up to 300% tariffs on Mexican-made cars has raised fears of disruption in Mexico’s vital auto sector, heightened by his growing electoral prospects. In addition, an IMF report further warned of a slowing economy, saying growth will slow to 1.5% this year despite fiscal stimulus. Bank of Mexico meeting minutes emphasized the need for a less tight monetary policy, while a Banxico survey showed that economists estimate the Central Bank will cut rates by 50 bps by the end of the year.

Equity markets in Europe declined on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.56%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.97% to its highest level in six weeks, thanks to lower-than-expected UK inflation data that raised the likelihood of an additional interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Investors now expect the Bank of England to cut the rate by 45 bps by the end of the year, down from 37 bps before the inflation report was released. The Central Bank is expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 bps next month.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.83%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.16%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.41%.

The Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its October meeting, the first-rate cut since early 2020. The decision came amid a sluggish economy and inflation remaining below the lower end of the target range of 1% to 3%. Thailand’s economy is expected to grow close to the projected 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025, driven by tourism, private consumption and improved exports of electronic products.

The Central Bank of the Philippines cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6% during its October 2024 policy meeting, the second consecutive rate cut in line with market expectations. The BSP governor emphasized that the Central Bank’s assessment drove the decision that price pressures remain manageable. The latest data showed that the country’s annual inflation rate slowed sharply to 1.9% in September 2024 from 3.3% in the previous month and was below market expectations of 2.5%. This also marked the lowest inflation rate since May 2020. The BSP also raised its inflation projection for 2025 and 2026 to 3.3% and 3.7% from previous estimates of 2.9% and 3.3%.

China announced that it will expand credit support to 4 trillion yuan to help struggling real estate developers ease purchase restrictions, ensure timely delivery of homes, and lower mortgage rates to boost homebuyer confidence.

A strong Australian jobs report lifted market sentiment and reinforced hawkish views on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy. The data showed that the Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, well above the estimate of 25,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Following the release of the data, markets lowered bets on a December RBA rate cut.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,842.47 +27.21 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,077.70 +337.28 (+0.79%)

DAX (DE40) 19,432.81 −53.38 (−0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,329.07 +79.79 (+0.97%)

USD Index 103.51 +0.25 (+0.24%)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

16 Oct

Inflationary pressures continue to ease in the UK and New Zealand

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.75%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.78%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.37%.

The Biden administration is discussing imposing country-specific restrictions on sales of advanced artificial intelligence chips. This hurt the stocks of chip and chip companies. ASML shares fell by 16.5% after lowering its projection, which put pressure on other chip makers, including Nvidia (-4.5%), Broadcom (-3.5%), AMD (-5.2%), and Intel (-3.3%). In addition, shares of energy companies, namely Exxon Mobil (-2.2%) and Chevron (-1.4%), were under pressure amid a sharp decline in oil prices.

Boeing (BA) shares rose more than 2%. They led the Dow Jones Industrials after receiving a $10 billion credit line from lenders and after filing a $25 billion financing request to counter a prolonged strike that shut down a Seattle manufacturing center for a month. Apple (AAPL) is up more than 1% and set a record high after unveiling a powerful new iPad mini equipped with Apple Intelligence artificial intelligence features.

Canada’s latest CPI report revived bets that the Bank of Canada may cut rates by 50 bps next week. The annual inflation rate fell to 1.6% in September, the lowest since February 2021, and is now below the Central Bank’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the annualized CPI Median and CPI Trimmed-Mean, which are the Central Bank’s two preferred measures of core inflation, were unchanged at 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively. The Bank of Canada will decide on monetary policy on October 23. Last month, Bank Governor Tiff Macklem opened the door for more rate cuts if inflation and the economy slow faster than expected.

Equity markets in Europe were declining Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.05%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.67%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.52%. Eurozone industrial production rose by 1.8% m/m in August, matching expectations and the largest increase in 1 year. German economic growth expectations for October in the ZEW survey rose by 9.5 to 13.1, beating expectations of 10.0. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at Thursday’s meeting at 97%.

The UK annual core inflation rate fell to 3.2% in September 2024 from 3.6% in previous months, the lowest since September 2021. The data was below market estimates of 3.4%, with the annualized CPI services rate falling (4.9% vs. 5.6% in August) and the annualized CPI goods rate falling further (-1.4% vs. -0.9%).

WTI crude oil prices fell by 4.4% to $70.6 per barrel on Tuesday following reports that Israel may avoid strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure, easing fears of major supply disruptions in the region. The IEA also cut demand growth estimates, citing near-record spare capacity in OPEC+ and slowing demand in major markets such as China, where consumption fell by 500,000 bpd in August for the fourth straight month. Global oil demand is estimated to grow by just under 900,000 bpd in 2024 and 1 million bpd in 2025, a slowdown from the 2 million bpd seen since the pandemic.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 2.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 3.67%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.79%.

New Zealand’s annual inflation fell to 2.2% in the third quarter from 3.3% in the previous quarter, the lowest since March 2021. Inflation is within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 1–3%, paving the way for significant interest rate cuts in the coming months. The Central Bank has cut the official money rate by 75 basis points since August and is expected to continue cutting rates over the next year to stimulate the economy. Markets are now pricing in a high probability of another 50 basis point rate cut by the RBNZ at the last meeting of the year in November.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,815.26 −44.59 (−0.76%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,740.42 −324.80 (−0.75%)

DAX (DE40) 19,486.19 −22.10 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,249.28 −43.38 (−0.52%)

USD Index 103.21 −0.09 (−0.09%)

News feed for: 2024.10.16

New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 00:45 (GMT+3);
UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 21:40 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

16 Oct

EUR/USD Continues Downward Amid Economic Uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD has sustained its position below the EMA-200 line, indicating a potential shift into a more defined downtrend. Recent comments from Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, have influenced this movement. Bostic suggests a modest 25-basis-point cut in interest rates this year – contrary to earlier predictions of a more aggressive 50-point reduction. Federal Reserve officials have underscored that any policy easing would be contingent on upcoming economic data.

The dollar’s strength is further bolstered by the Empire Manufacturing Index for New York State, which sharply declined to -11.9 in October, a significant drop from 11.5 in September, marking the lowest level since May. This unexpected downturn, which contrasts with analyst expectations for a slight positive reading of 3.8, highlights a deterioration in regional manufacturing activity. While this data suggests potential headwinds for the US economy, it could paradoxically support the USD if it fuels speculation about a less aggressive rate-cutting strategy by the Fed.

Market participants eagerly anticipate further economic reports, including data on retail sales, industrial production, and the upcoming manufacturing data from FRB Philadelphia. These indicators will be crucial in painting a more comprehensive picture of the US consumer sector and overall industrial conditions, potentially guiding the next moves for EUR/USD.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

EUR/USD is entrenched downward, aiming for the 1.0777 target level. The currency pair is currently consolidating around 1.0888. A break below this consolidation to 1.0860 could further propel the pair towards 1.0777. Upon reaching this level, a corrective phase towards 1.0996 might be anticipated. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero and poised to reach new lows, supports this bearish outlook.

On the hourly chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range just above 1.0888. A downward break from this range is expected, which could extend the decline towards 1.0857 and potentially continue the downtrend to 1.0777. This scenario is reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downwards towards 20, indicating the likelihood of continued bearish momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Oct

India is experiencing a surge in inflation. US stock indices are once again updating historical highs.

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47%. The S&P 500 index (US500) gained 0.77%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.87%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials indices hit new all-time highs, and the Nasdaq 100 Index hit a 2-month high. Optimism about corporate earnings for the third quarter helped boost stock prices after bank stocks rose last Friday on strong earnings results from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500, on average, are expected to report a 4.3% increase in quarterly earnings in Q3 from a year earlier, down from the 7.9% increase estimate in July. In addition, gains in chipmakers stocks on Monday helped boost the overall market.

Trading volumes were below average as trading in the Treasury cash market was closed due to the Columbus Day holiday. Fed comments signaled support for the gradual pace of interest rate cuts. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said a “further moderate reduction” in the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate in the coming quarters.

Mexico’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.1 in September from 47.6 in August, the highest reading since February 2019. The decline reflects worsening sentiment about household finances and the country’s economic outlook, as well as a decrease in consumers’ willingness to make significant purchases. The minutes of the Bank of Mexico meeting emphasize the need for a less tight monetary policy in light of slowing economic growth and easing price pressures. The Central Bank is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points to 10% by the end of 2024.

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.69%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.32%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.12%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.47%.

The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.0% between June and August 2024, down from 4.1% in the previous three-month period and in line with market estimates. At the same time, the number of people in employment rose by 373,000 to 33.37 million, the highest on record, mainly due to growth in both full-time and part-time workers.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 2% to $74 a barrel on Monday amid concerns about China’s weakening economy. Markets were disappointed by China’s Finance Ministry briefing on Saturday, which lacked major new fiscal stimulus despite promises of support for the real estate sector and a potential increase in borrowing. China’s inflation also fell in September, raising concerns about weakening fuel demand in the world’s biggest oil importer.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.57%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 1.66%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was 0.75% cheaper, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.47%.

India’s annual inflation rate for September 2024 rose to 5.49% from 3.65% in the previous month, well above market estimates of 5%. It was the highest inflation rate since the beginning of the year, surpassing the RBI’s 4% target after falling below the threshold in the first two months of the September quarter, jeopardizing earlier expectations of the Central Bank soon starting to cut rates.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,859.85 +44.82 (+0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,065.22 +201.36 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 19,508.29 +134.46 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,292.66 +39.01 (+0.47%)

USD Index 103.20 +0.31 (+0.30%)

News feed for: 2024.10.15

UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US FOMC Member Daly Speaks (m/m) at 18:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Oct

Brent: Slumps on easing Middle East fears

By ForexTime

Brent ↓ 6% this week

Fundamentals swing in favour of bears

Watch out for US/China data and EIA report

Technical levels: $77.90, $75 & $73

Oil benchmarks have been hammered this week, shedding over 6% thanks to potent fundamental forces.

The global commodity stumbled into Monday’s session after China’s highly anticipated Finance Ministry briefing failed to impress investors.

OPEC’s monthly oil market report rubbed salt into the wound as the cartel cut its demand forecast this year for the third time in a row.

But the knockout blow for oil was delivered on Tuesday morning following reports that Israel may avoid striking Iran’s crude infrastructure.

With this development easing concerns over wider conflict and major supply disruptions, oil was left under the mercy of bears this week:

WTI: -6.6%

Brent: – 6.1%

Despite these heavy losses, oil prices are still up month-to-date and may see more volatility this week due to ongoing developments in China and US rate expectations.

This brings our attention to key US and China data scheduled near the end of the week.

Thursday, October 17th: US retail sales, initial jobless claims, EIA data

Friday, October 18th: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, home prices

Over the past few weeks, confidence has improved in the US economic outlook thanks to better-than-expected data. If this translates to improving oil demand, the global commodity could receive a boost.

Still, US crude inventories have been rising over the past two weeks raising questions about demand. The latest EIA data on Thursday has the potential to move oil prices.

But it’s all about the data dump from China on Friday which could provide fresh insight into the health of the world’s largest energy consumers. Ultimately, a strong set of figures from China may boost optimism over the demand outlook – supporting oil prices as a result.

Looking at the technicals…

Prices are under intense pressure on the daily charts with Brent respecting a bearish channel.

There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. However, daily support can be seen around the $75.00 level.

Sustained weakness $75,00 could send prices back toward $73,00, $70.80 and $68.80.

Should $73.00 prove reliable support, this could trigger a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $75.00 and $77.90.

Brent 3

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

15 Oct

USD/JPY Faces Resistance Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY has been struggling to break past the resistance level at 149.55 despite repeated attempts over the past five trading sessions. The Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Federal Reserve signals a more moderate approach to interest rate cuts in its upcoming meetings, contrasting with the broader expectations of more aggressive rate reductions.

Further complicating the currency dynamics, recent fiscal stimulus announcements from China have yet to manage to bolster market confidence. Over the weekend, China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an detailed plans for additional capital injections into state-owned banks and measures to support the property market. However, the lack of specific details regarding the spending amount and the precise nature of these measures left investors feeling uncertain about the effectiveness and scale of the proposed stimulus.

In Japan, dovish comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and opposition from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba against further rate hikes have added to the pressure on the yen. Earlier this month, Ishiba expressed concerns that the current economic conditions do not warrant additional rate increases. However, other senior officials later softened this stance, indicating some internal conflict or reassessment within the Japanese government regarding monetary policy.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is currently within a broad consolidation range around 149.22. The range has expanded to 149.96, and the market is now forming a downward movement towards 149.22, testing this level from above. If the market rebounds from here, we might see an ascent towards 150.22. A break above this level could signal a continuation towards 153.22. Conversely, a drop below 148.88 could lead to a further correction down to 147.47. The MACD indicator supports this view, with the signal line high above zero but starting to descend towards it, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY has completed a growth wave to 149.96 and is undergoing a correction to 149.22. Following this corrective phase, the market is expected to resume its upward trajectory towards 150.22. This movement aligns with the Stochastic oscillator’s current trajectory, which shows the signal line moving upwards from 50 towards 80, indicating potential for further gains in the short term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was small gains for Steel (830 contracts) with Palladium (546 contracts) also showing a rising week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,751 contracts), Platinum (-4,475 contracts), Silver (-2,209 contracts) and with Copper (-96 contracts) also registering a small decrease in bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Steel (89 percent) remain near the top of their 3-Year ranges and lead the metals markets this week. Gold (86 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is close to the midpoint (50 percent) for the past 3-Years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (85.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (94.1 percent)
Silver (90.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.0 percent)
Copper (73.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (73.5 percent)
Platinum (81.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (93.1 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (44.4 percent)
Steel (89.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.3 percent)

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (33 percent) and Copper (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (21 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.3 percent)
Silver (3.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (10.1 percent)
Copper (24.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.3 percent)
Platinum (21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.5 percent)
Palladium (33.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (32.3 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 278,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	13.3	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	71.7	4.9
– Net Position:	278,180	-303,976	25,796
– Gross Longs:	348,891	68,957	51,440
– Gross Shorts:	70,711	372,933	25,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.9	12.9	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	6.6	-7.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	20.8	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	74.5	6.5
– Net Position:	54,715	-76,715	22,000
– Gross Longs:	72,113	29,717	31,279
– Gross Shorts:	17,398	106,432	9,279
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	9.0	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.1	9.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -96 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	28.4	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	50.1	4.5
– Net Position:	43,096	-52,304	9,208
– Gross Longs:	105,252	68,582	20,178
– Gross Shorts:	62,156	120,886	10,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	25.4	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-22.7	2.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.2	20.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	60.3	4.0
– Net Position:	23,657	-31,009	7,352
– Gross Longs:	46,339	15,424	10,408
– Gross Shorts:	22,682	46,433	3,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	8.9	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-23.6	14.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	58.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.3	20.5	7.8
– Net Position:	-7,317	6,829	488
– Gross Longs:	4,882	10,549	1,906
– Gross Shorts:	12,199	3,720	1,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.7	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.3	-36.3	26.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	69.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	63.7	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,801	1,479	322
– Gross Longs:	5,473	17,032	470
– Gross Shorts:	7,274	15,553	148
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	10.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-13.2	40.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Oct

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (183,760 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (20,403 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-225,896 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-46,817 contracts), the Fed Funds (-54,222 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-49,535 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-27,938 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-19,033 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-1,918 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (90 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (81 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (79 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (8 percent), the SOFR 1-Month (8 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (90.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (100.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (41.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (57.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (49.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (80.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (89.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (7.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (79.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (91.0 percent)

Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (70 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-22 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-9 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (69.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (70.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-1.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (5.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-21.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-22.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-5.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (28.9 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-47.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-50.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-9.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (11.0 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 191,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -54,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 245,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	50.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	59.5	4.6
– Net Position:	191,471	-179,097	-12,374
– Gross Longs:	481,131	1,059,607	84,379
– Gross Shorts:	289,660	1,238,704	96,753
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	9.5	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	69.8	-68.4	-4.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 368,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -225,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 594,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	55.7	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	59.4	0.9
– Net Position:	368,420	-373,123	4,703
– Gross Longs:	1,630,441	5,720,105	100,511
– Gross Shorts:	1,262,021	6,093,228	95,808
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	20.3	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	9.1	3.4

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -222,460 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -194,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	66.4	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	46.8	0.9
– Net Position:	-222,460	223,071	-611
– Gross Longs:	115,999	755,402	9,260
– Gross Shorts:	338,459	532,331	9,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	92.5	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.6	47.5	1.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,225,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -46,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,178,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	77.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	54.3	2.3
– Net Position:	-1,225,036	1,034,896	190,140
– Gross Longs:	635,254	3,446,184	292,339
– Gross Shorts:	1,860,290	2,411,288	102,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.0	78.0	96.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	13.8	2.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,600,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -49,535 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,550,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	83.4	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	61.0	4.3
– Net Position:	-1,600,325	1,404,836	195,489
– Gross Longs:	488,596	5,223,372	463,588
– Gross Shorts:	2,088,921	3,818,536	268,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	92.8	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-4.2	-0.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -960,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 183,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,143,889 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	60.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-960,129	805,589	154,540
– Gross Longs:	489,605	3,746,029	475,440
– Gross Shorts:	1,449,734	2,940,440	320,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	77.4	99.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	6.2	-0.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -82,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	73.9	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.9	12.9
– Net Position:	-82,467	155,448	-72,981
– Gross Longs:	352,173	1,630,033	211,286
– Gross Shorts:	434,640	1,474,585	284,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	47.3	69.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	3.0	-21.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -76,175 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 20,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,578 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	65.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	66.6	7.7
– Net Position:	-76,175	-25,386	101,561
– Gross Longs:	362,540	1,148,669	237,597
– Gross Shorts:	438,715	1,174,055	136,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	20.3	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	19.4	3.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -282,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -263,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	63.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-282,251	265,926	16,325
– Gross Longs:	172,856	1,351,055	180,774
– Gross Shorts:	455,107	1,085,129	164,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	26.6	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.1	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,264 contracts) with Soybeans (22,511 contracts), Lean Hogs (14,156 contracts), Live Cattle (11,909 contracts), Soybean Oil (10,065 contracts) and with Cocoa (558 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-26,375 contracts) with Wheat (-7,366 contracts), Coffee (-5,098 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,175 contracts) and Cotton (-1,553 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (68 percent), Lean Hogs (67 percent) and Wheat (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently followed next by Sugar (38 percent) and Corn (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (38.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.0 percent)
Sugar (37.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (47.1 percent)
Coffee (87.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.0 percent)
Soybeans (34.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (70.1 percent)
Live Cattle (48.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (35.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (67.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.4 percent)
Cotton (22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (50.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.1 percent)
Wheat (60.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (65.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (49 percent) and Lean Hogs (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (34 percent), Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybeans (31 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (20.1 percent)
Sugar (19.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.8 percent)
Coffee (-4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (31.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.1 percent)
Live Cattle (33.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (39.6 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.2 percent)
Cocoa (9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (10.7 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 43,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	44.9	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	43.5	12.3
– Net Position:	36,071	20,228	-56,299
– Gross Longs:	323,640	670,624	127,234
– Gross Shorts:	287,569	650,396	183,533
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	65.2	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-20.6	-39.5

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	47.8	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	103,086	-139,667	36,581
– Gross Longs:	230,158	382,030	81,111
– Gross Shorts:	127,072	521,697	44,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.8	56.3	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-24.9	41.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	39.8	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	71.1	2.4
– Net Position:	62,715	-66,254	3,539
– Gross Longs:	76,743	84,209	8,621
– Gross Shorts:	14,028	150,463	5,082
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.0	12.2	71.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.1	-1.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -51,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	59.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	50.4	9.0
– Net Position:	-51,186	83,915	-32,729
– Gross Longs:	144,361	528,197	46,489
– Gross Shorts:	195,547	444,282	79,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.4	-28.5	-47.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	48.2	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	60.1	5.5
– Net Position:	60,259	-62,043	1,784
– Gross Longs:	150,758	250,162	30,403
– Gross Shorts:	90,499	312,205	28,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.4	32.3	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.3	-43.6	-7.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 99,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	40.9	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.8	4.8
– Net Position:	99,847	-127,797	27,950
– Gross Longs:	160,991	227,883	54,493
– Gross Shorts:	61,144	355,680	26,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	27.1	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.0	-35.7	33.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.2	34.5	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	48.9	13.7
– Net Position:	64,760	-45,798	-18,962
– Gross Longs:	128,051	110,049	24,596
– Gross Shorts:	63,291	155,847	43,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	66.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.4	-29.4	-32.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.0	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	43.6	9.1
– Net Position:	33,305	-28,030	-5,275
– Gross Longs:	123,646	99,845	21,505
– Gross Shorts:	90,341	127,875	26,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.1	31.0	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.6	-48.2	-6.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	49.4	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	45.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-11,641	10,404	1,237
– Gross Longs:	61,941	120,801	14,048
– Gross Shorts:	73,582	110,397	12,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	77.4	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-16.1	11.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	31.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	65.9	3.0
– Net Position:	39,936	-46,917	6,981
– Gross Longs:	54,387	43,661	11,054
– Gross Shorts:	14,451	90,578	4,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.7	45.0	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-9.5	-2.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	35.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	30.4	9.4
– Net Position:	-13,498	19,744	-6,246
– Gross Longs:	111,760	139,482	30,672
– Gross Shorts:	125,258	119,738	36,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.0	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-12.3	-16.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Oct

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (12,869 contracts) and with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (638 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-15,342 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-13,189 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,784 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-2,764 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (88 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (84 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (100.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (87.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (63.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (65.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (83.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (64.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (98.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (38.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.7 percent)

VIX & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (14 percent), the S&P500-Mini (11 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-6 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (26.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (8.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-12.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (14.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (5.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	40.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	38.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-3,008	4,478	-1,470
– Gross Longs:	96,893	136,562	26,327
– Gross Shorts:	99,901	132,084	27,797
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-24.0	-10.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,644 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,545 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	71.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	75.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-5,644	-87,667	93,311
– Gross Longs:	322,686	1,514,535	263,087
– Gross Shorts:	328,330	1,602,202	169,776
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	27.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-8.1	-8.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	57.5	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	76.2	14.4
– Net Position:	14,286	-15,843	1,557
– Gross Longs:	20,585	48,713	13,762
– Gross Shorts:	6,299	64,556	12,205
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	15.2	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-7.8	-3.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	56.8	15.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	66.7	11.1
– Net Position:	13,295	-24,754	11,459
– Gross Longs:	57,058	141,994	39,326
– Gross Shorts:	43,763	166,748	27,867
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	25.4	76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	12.5	-6.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	72.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	76.9	4.1
– Net Position:	5,007	-18,479	13,472
– Gross Longs:	78,784	322,420	31,844
– Gross Shorts:	73,777	340,899	18,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.1	11.2	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-11.3	-7.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	89.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	83.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-28,274	22,292	5,982
– Gross Longs:	31,695	363,803	12,173
– Gross Shorts:	59,969	341,511	6,191
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	59.3	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-4.0	-7.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

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